Measuring the effects of the new ECOWAS and WAEMU tobacco excise tax directives.

BACKGROUND: In December 2017, the 15-member ECOWAS (Economic Community of West African States) and the 8-member WAEMU (West African Economic and Monetary Union, a subset of ECOWAS) passed new Tobacco Tax Directives. Both Directives increased the minimum ad valorem excise tax rate to 50%. In addition the ECOWAS Directive introduced a minimum specific tax (US$ 0.02/stick), but the WAEMU Directive did not. This paper examines the likely effects of these new Directives on cigarette prices, sales volumes and revenues. METHOD: Tax simulation models using comparable data were constructed for each of the 15 countries to estimate the effects of the ECOWAS and WAEMU Directives. RESULTS: If the 15 ECOWAS members implement the ECOWAS Directive it would substantially increase the retail price of cigarettes (unweighted average 51%, range: 12% to 108%), decrease sales volumes (22%, range: -8% to -39%) and increase tax revenue (373%, range: 10% to 1243%). The impact of the WAEMU Directive on WAEMU countries' cigarette prices (unweighted average +2%), sales volumes (-1%) and revenue (+17%) is likely to be minimal. CONCLUSIONS: The 2017 ECOWAS Directive, which adds a specific excise tax per pack, along with an increase in the ad valorem tax, substantially improves its members' cigarette tax structure. The specific tax overcomes the weakness of the ad valorem excise tax, since it does not depend on import or ex-factory values, which comprise only a small part of the retail price in ECOWAS countries. We recommend that WAEMU countries adopt the ECOWAS Directive, rather than the WAEMU Directive.

Economic and environmental effects of reduction in smoking prevalence in Tanzania.

BACKGROUND: In Tanzania, strong tobacco control measures that would lead to a reduction in prevalence (consumption) have so far not been implemented due to concern about possible economic effects on gross domestic product and employment. The aim of this study is to analyse the economic effects of reducing tobacco consumption in Tanzania. METHODS: The study uses computable general equilibrium (CGE) modelling to arrive at the effects of decreasing tobacco prevalence. A full-fledged global CGE model was developed, including comprehensive details on tobacco and tobacco products/sectors using the Global Trade Analysis Program-Environment model and database. RESULTS: The results indicate that a 30% reduction in prevalence could lead to employment losses of about 20.8% in tobacco and 7.8% in the tobacco products sector. However, when compensated by increases in other sectors the overall decline in employment is only 0.5%. The decline in the economy as a whole is negligible at -0.3%. CONCLUSION: Initially, some assistance from the Tanzanian government may be needed for the displaced workers from the tobacco sector as a result of the decline in smoking prevalence. However, these results should be taken as a lower bound since the economic burden of diseases caused by tobacco may be far higher than the sectoral losses. The results do not include the health benefits of lower smoking prevalence. In addition, the revenues from higher taxes, as part of measures to decrease prevalence, would provide more fiscal space that can be used to finance assistance for displaced tobacco farmers and workers.

Exploring the relationship between cigarette prices and smoking among adults: a cross-country study of low- and middle-income nations.

INTRODUCTION: Evidence on the relationship between cigarette prices and adult smoking in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) is relatively limited. This study offers new descriptive evidence on this relationship using data from a set of 13 LMICs. METHODS: We use Global Adult Tobacco Survey (GATS) cross-country data from approximately 200,000 participants aged 15 and older. Estimates on the relationship between prices and adult smoking were obtained from logit models of smoking participation and ordinary least squares models of conditional cigarette demand. RESULTS: Higher prices were associated with lower demand across countries, in terms of both smoking prevalence and daily number of cigarettes smoked among smokers. Our estimates suggest that the total price elasticity of cigarette demand in LMICs is approximately -0.53. We find that higher socioeconomic status (SES), represented through wealth and education effects is associated with lower chance of smoking overall, but among existing smokers, it may be associated with a larger number of cigarettes smoked. CONCLUSIONS: After controlling for a set of individual demographic and country characteristics, cigarette prices retain a significant role in shaping cigarette demand across LMICs. Because higher SES is associated with a reduced chance of smoking overall but also with increased daily consumption among current smokers, optimal tobacco tax policies in LMICs may face an added need to accommodate to shifting SES structures within the populations of these countries.