Probabilistic seasonal dengue forecasting in Vietnam: A modelling study using superensembles.

BACKGROUND: With enough advanced notice, dengue outbreaks can be mitigated. As a climate-sensitive disease, environmental conditions and past patterns of dengue can be used to make predictions about future outbreak risk. These predictions improve public health planning and decision-making to ultimately reduce the burden of disease. Past approaches to dengue forecasting have used seasonal climate forecasts, but the predictive ability of a system using different lead times in a year-round prediction system has been seldom explored. Moreover, the transition from theoretical to operational systems integrated with disease control activities is rare. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We introduce an operational seasonal dengue forecasting system for Vietnam where Earth observations, seasonal climate forecasts, and lagged dengue cases are used to drive a superensemble of probabilistic dengue models to predict dengue risk up to 6 months ahead. Bayesian spatiotemporal models were fit to 19 years (2002-2020) of dengue data at the province level across Vietnam. A superensemble of these models then makes probabilistic predictions of dengue incidence at various future time points aligned with key Vietnamese decision and planning deadlines. We demonstrate that the superensemble generates more accurate predictions of dengue incidence than the individual models it incorporates across a suite of time horizons and transmission settings. Using historical data, the superensemble made slightly more accurate predictions (continuous rank probability score [CRPS] = 66.8, 95% CI 60.6-148.0) than a baseline model which forecasts the same incidence rate every month (CRPS = 79.4, 95% CI 78.5-80.5) at lead times of 1 to 3 months, albeit with larger uncertainty. The outbreak detection capability of the superensemble was considerably larger (69%) than that of the baseline model (54.5%). Predictions were most accurate in southern Vietnam, an area that experiences semi-regular seasonal dengue transmission. The system also demonstrated added value across multiple areas compared to previous practice of not using a forecast. We use the system to make a prospective prediction for dengue incidence in Vietnam for the period May to October 2020. Prospective predictions made with the superensemble were slightly more accurate (CRPS = 110, 95% CI 102-575) than those made with the baseline model (CRPS = 125, 95% CI 120-168) but had larger uncertainty. Finally, we propose a framework for the evaluation of probabilistic predictions. Despite the demonstrated value of our forecasting system, the approach is limited by the consistency of the dengue case data, as well as the lack of publicly available, continuous, and long-term data sets on mosquito control efforts and serotype-specific case data. CONCLUSIONS: This study shows that by combining detailed Earth observation data, seasonal climate forecasts, and state-of-the-art models, dengue outbreaks can be predicted across a broad range of settings, with enough lead time to meaningfully inform dengue control. While our system omits some important variables not currently available at a subnational scale, the majority of past outbreaks could be predicted up to 3 months ahead. Over the next 2 years, the system will be prospectively evaluated and, if successful, potentially extended to other areas and other climate-sensitive disease systems.

Interactions between climate change, urban infrastructure and mobility are driving dengue emergence in Vietnam.

Dengue is expanding globally, but how dengue emergence is shaped locally by interactions between climatic and socio-environmental factors is not well understood. Here, we investigate the drivers of dengue incidence and emergence in Vietnam, through analysing 23 years of district-level case data spanning a period of significant socioeconomic change (1998-2020). We show that urban infrastructure factors (sanitation, water supply, long-term urban growth) predict local spatial patterns of dengue incidence, while human mobility is a more influential driver in subtropical northern regions than the endemic south. Temperature is the dominant factor shaping dengue's distribution and dynamics, and using long-term reanalysis temperature data we show that warming since 1950 has expanded transmission risk throughout Vietnam, and most strongly in current dengue emergence hotspots (e.g., southern central regions, Ha Noi). In contrast, effects of hydrometeorology are complex, multi-scalar and dependent on local context: risk increases under either short-term precipitation excess or long-term drought, but improvements in water supply mitigate drought-associated risks except under extreme conditions. Our findings challenge the assumption that dengue is an urban disease, instead suggesting that incidence peaks in transitional landscapes with intermediate infrastructure provision, and provide evidence that interactions between recent climate change and mobility are contributing to dengue's expansion throughout Vietnam.

The Effects of Meteorological Factors on Dengue Cases in Malaysia.

Dengue is a vector-borne disease affected by meteorological factors and is commonly recorded from ground stations. Data from ground station have limited spatial representation and accuracy, which can be overcome using satellite-based Earth Observation (EO) recordings instead. EO-based meteorological recordings can help to provide a better understanding of the correlations between meteorological variables and dengue cases. This paper aimed to first validate the satellite-based (EO) data of temperature, wind speed, and rainfall using ground station data. Subsequently, we aimed to determine if the spatially matched EO data correlated with dengue fever cases from 2011 to 2019 in Malaysia. EO data were spatially matched with the data from four ground stations located at states and districts in the central (Selangor, Petaling) and east coast (Kelantan, Kota Baharu) geographical regions of Peninsular Malaysia. Spearman's rank-order correlation coefficient (ρ) was performed to examine the correlation between EO and ground station data. A cross-correlation analysis with an eight-week lag period was performed to examine the magnitude of correlation between EO data and dengue case across the three time periods (2011-2019, 2015-2019, 2011-2014). The highest correlation between the ground-based stations and corresponding EO data were reported for temperature (mean ρ = 0.779), followed by rainfall (mean ρ = 0.687) and wind speed (mean ρ = 0.639). Overall, positive correlations were observed between weekly dengue cases and rainfall for Selangor and Petaling across all time periods with significant correlations being observed for the period from 2011 to 2019 and 2015 to 2019. In addition, positive significant correlations were also observed between weekly dengue cases and temperature for Kelantan and Kota Baharu across all time periods, while negative significant correlations between weekly dengue cases and temperature were observed in Selangor and Petaling across all time periods. Overall negative correlations were observed between weekly dengue cases and wind speed in all areas from 2011 to 2019 and 2015 to 2019, with significant correlations being observed for the period from 2015 to 2019. EO-derived meteorological variables explained 48.2% of the variation in dengue cases in Selangor. Moderate to strong correlations were observed between meteorological variables recorded from EO data derived from satellites and ground stations, thereby justifying the use of EO data as a viable alternative to ground stations for recording meteorological variables. Both rainfall and temperature were found to be positively correlated with weekly dengue cases; however, wind speed was negatively correlated with dengue cases.

A Review of Dengue's Historical and Future Health Risk from a Changing Climate.

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: The purpose of this review is to summarize research articles that provide risk estimates for the historical and future impact that climate change has had upon dengue published from 2007 through 2019. RECENT FINDINGS: Findings from 30 studies on historical health estimates, with the majority of the studies conducted in Asia, emphasized the importance of temperature, precipitation, and relative humidity, as well as lag effects, when trying to understand how climate change can impact the risk of contracting dengue. Furthermore, 35 studies presented findings on future health risk based upon climate projection scenarios, with a third of them showcasing global level estimates and findings across the articles emphasizing the need to understand risk at a localized level as the impacts from climate change will be experienced inequitably across different geographies in the future. Dengue is one of the most rapidly spreading viral diseases in the world, with ~390 million people infected worldwide annually. Several factors have contributed towards its proliferation, including climate change. Multiple studies have previously been conducted examining the relationship between dengue and climate change, both from a historical and a future risk perspective. We searched the U.S. National Institute of Environmental Health (NIEHS) Climate Change and Health Portal for literature (spanning January 2007 to September 2019) providing historical and future health risk estimates of contracting dengue infection in relation to climate variables worldwide. With an overview of the evidence of the historical and future health risk posed by dengue from climate change across different regions of the world, this review article enables the research and policy community to understand where the knowledge gaps are and what areas need to be addressed in order to implement localized adaptation measures to mitigate the health risks posed by future dengue infection.