The importance of supplementary immunisation activities to prevent measles outbreaks during the COVID-19 pandemic in Kenya.

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted routine measles immunisation and supplementary immunisation activities (SIAs) in most countries including Kenya. We assessed the risk of measles outbreaks during the pandemic in Kenya as a case study for the African Region. METHODS: Combining measles serological data, local contact patterns, and vaccination coverage into a cohort model, we predicted the age-adjusted population immunity in Kenya and estimated the probability of outbreaks when contact-reducing COVID-19 interventions are lifted. We considered various scenarios for reduced measles vaccination coverage from April 2020. RESULTS: In February 2020, when a scheduled SIA was postponed, population immunity was close to the herd immunity threshold and the probability of a large outbreak was 34% (8-54). As the COVID-19 contact restrictions are nearly fully eased, from December 2020, the probability of a large measles outbreak will increase to 38% (19-54), 46% (30-59), and 54% (43-64) assuming a 15%, 50%, and 100% reduction in measles vaccination coverage. By December 2021, this risk increases further to 43% (25-56), 54% (43-63), and 67% (59-72) for the same coverage scenarios respectively. However, the increased risk of a measles outbreak following the lifting of all restrictions can be overcome by conducting a SIA with ≥ 95% coverage in under-fives. CONCLUSION: While contact restrictions sufficient for SAR-CoV-2 control temporarily reduce measles transmissibility and the risk of an outbreak from a measles immunity gap, this risk rises rapidly once these restrictions are lifted. Implementing delayed SIAs will be critical for prevention of measles outbreaks given the roll-back of contact restrictions in Kenya.

Allele-specific antibodies to Plasmodium falciparum merozoite surface protein-2 and protection against clinical malaria.

IgG and IgG3 antibodies to merozoite surface protein-2 (MSP-2) of Plasmodium falciparum have been associated with protection from clinical malaria in independent studies. We determined whether this protection was allele-specific by testing whether children who developed clinical malaria lacked IgG/IgG3 antibodies specific to the dominant msp2 parasite genotypes detected during clinical episodes. We analysed pre-existing IgG and IgG1/IgG3 antibodies to antigens representing the major dimorphic types of MSP-2 by ELISA. We used quantitative real-time PCR to determine the dominant msp2 alleles in parasites detected in clinical episodes. Over half (55%, 80/146) of infections contained both allelic types. Single or dominant IC1- and FC27-like alleles were detected in 46% and 42% of infections respectively, and both types were equally dominant in 12%. High levels of IgG/IgG3 antibodies to the FC27-like antigen were not significantly associated with a lower likelihood of clinical episodes caused by parasites bearing FC27-like compared to IC1-like alleles, and vice versa for IgG/IgG3 antibodies to the IC1-like antigen. These findings were supported by competition ELISAs which demonstrated the presence of IgG antibodies to allele-specific epitopes within both antigens. Thus, even for this well-studied antigen, the importance of an allele-specific component of naturally acquired protective immunity to malaria remains to be confirmed.