The risk of secondary progressive multiple sclerosis is geographically determined but modifiable.

Geographical variations in the incidence and prevalence of multiple sclerosis have been reported globally. Latitude as a surrogate for exposure to ultraviolet radiation but also other lifestyle and environmental factors are regarded as drivers of this variation. No previous studies evaluated geographical variation in the risk of secondary progressive multiple sclerosis, an advanced form of multiple sclerosis that is characterized by steady accrual of irreversible disability. We evaluated differences in the risk of secondary progressive multiple sclerosis in relation to latitude and country of residence, modified by high-to-moderate efficacy immunotherapy in a geographically diverse cohort of patients with relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis. The study included relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis patients from the global MSBase registry with at least one recorded assessment of disability. Secondary progressive multiple sclerosis was identified as per clinician diagnosis. Sensitivity analyses used the operationalized definition of secondary progressive multiple sclerosis and the Swedish decision tree algorithm. A proportional hazards model was used to estimate the cumulative risk of secondary progressive multiple sclerosis by country of residence (latitude), adjusted for sex, age at disease onset, time from onset to relapsing-remitting phase, disability (Multiple Sclerosis Severity Score) and relapse activity at study inclusion, national multiple sclerosis prevalence, government health expenditure, and proportion of time treated with high-to-moderate efficacy disease-modifying therapy. Geographical variation in time from relapsing-remitting phase to secondary progressive phase of multiple sclerosis was modelled through a proportional hazards model with spatially correlated frailties. We included 51 126 patients (72% female) from 27 countries. The median survival time from relapsing-remitting phase to secondary progressive multiple sclerosis among all patients was 39 (95% confidence interval: 37 to 43) years. Higher latitude [median hazard ratio = 1.21, 95% credible interval (1.16, 1.26)], higher national multiple sclerosis prevalence [1.07 (1.03, 1.11)], male sex [1.30 (1.22, 1.39)], older age at onset [1.35 (1.30, 1.39)], higher disability [2.40 (2.34, 2.47)] and frequent relapses [1.18 (1.15, 1.21)] at inclusion were associated with increased hazard of secondary progressive multiple sclerosis. Higher proportion of time on high-to-moderate efficacy therapy substantially reduced the hazard of secondary progressive multiple sclerosis [0.76 (0.73, 0.79)] and reduced the effect of latitude [interaction: 0.95 (0.92, 0.99)]. At the country-level, patients in Oman, Tunisia, Iran and Canada had higher risks of secondary progressive multiple sclerosis relative to the other studied regions. Higher latitude of residence is associated with a higher probability of developing secondary progressive multiple sclerosis. High-to-moderate efficacy immunotherapy can mitigate some of this geographically co-determined risk.

Altered Cerebrospinal Fluid Neurofilament Light Chain but Not Neurogranin Levels Are Associated with Response to Ocrelizumab Treatment in Relapsing-Remitting Multiple Sclerosis: A Preliminary Study.

INTRODUCTION: Ocrelizumab is a CD20-targeting monoclonal antibody used for treatment of multiple sclerosis (MS). Serum and cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) neurofilament light (NFL) chain levels are reduced in MS patients under ocrelizumab treatment indicating a preventive action against neuro-axonal degeneration. Our aim, in this preliminary study, was to explore the impact of ocrelizumab treatment on synaptic integrity through assessment of neurogranin levels. METHODS: Thirteen relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS) patients resistant to first-line immunomodulating agents were enrolled and followed up for 24 months under ocrelizumab treatment. Disease activity was monitored by periodic EDSS, MSSS, and cranial-spinal MRI assessments. No evidence of disease activity (NEDA)-3 was determined, and CSF levels of NFL (marker of neuro-axonal integrity) and neurogranin (marker of synaptic integrity) were measured by ELISA at baseline and 12-month ocrelizumab treatment. RESULTS: Seven RRMS patients, who preserved NEDA-3 status during 24-month follow-up, showed ≥30% NFL level decrease, whereas 6 patients with stable/increased NFL levels displayed relapse, MRI lesion, or disability progression. Although most RRMS patients exhibited increased CSF levels of neurogranin under ocrelizumab treatment, patients with and without neurogranin level increase did not differ in terms of clinical features and NEDA-3 status. Baseline neurogranin levels negatively correlated with baseline EDSS scores. CONCLUSION: Our results confirm that NFL effectively monitors treatment response of RRMS patients under ocrelizumab treatment. Neurogranin does not appear to exhibit a similar benefit in screening of RRMS disease activity. Nevertheless, lower neurogranin levels are associated with increased disability in RRMS indicating a potential disease activity biomarker function.

External validation of a clinical prediction model in multiple sclerosis.

BACKGROUND: Timely initiation of disease modifying therapy is crucial for managing multiple sclerosis (MS). OBJECTIVE: We aimed to validate a previously published predictive model of individual treatment response using a non-overlapping cohort from the Middle East. METHODS: We interrogated the MSBase registry for patients who were not included in the initial model development. These patients had relapsing MS or clinically isolated syndrome, a recorded date of disease onset, disability and dates of disease modifying therapy, with sufficient follow-up pre- and post-baseline. Baseline was the visit at which a new disease modifying therapy was initiated, and which served as the start of the predicted period. The original models were used to translate clinical information into three principal components and to predict probability of relapses, disability worsening or improvement, conversion to secondary progressive MS and treatment discontinuation as well as changes in the area under disability-time curve (ΔAUC). Prediction accuracy was assessed using the criteria published previously. RESULTS: The models performed well for predicting the risk of disability worsening and improvement (accuracy: 81%-96%) and performed moderately well for predicting the risk of relapses (accuracy: 73%-91%). The predictions for ΔAUC and risk of treatment discontinuation were suboptimal (accuracy < 44%). Accuracy for predicting the risk of conversion to secondary progressive MS ranged from 50% to 98%. CONCLUSION: The previously published models are generalisable to patients with a broad range of baseline characteristics in different geographic regions.

Early non-disabling relapses are important predictors of disability accumulation in people with relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis.

BACKGROUND: The prognostic significance of non-disabling relapses in people with relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS) is unclear. OBJECTIVE: To determine whether early non-disabling relapses predict disability accumulation in RRMS. METHODS: We redefined mild relapses in MSBase as 'non-disabling', and moderate or severe relapses as 'disabling'. We used mixed-effects Cox models to compare 90-day confirmed disability accumulation events in people with exclusively non-disabling relapses within 2 years of RRMS diagnosis to those with no early relapses; and any early disabling relapses. Analyses were stratified by disease-modifying therapy (DMT) efficacy during follow-up. RESULTS: People who experienced non-disabling relapses within 2 years of RRMS diagnosis accumulated more disability than those with no early relapses if they were untreated (n = 285 vs 4717; hazard ratio (HR) = 1.29, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.00-1.68) or given platform DMTs (n = 1074 vs 7262; HR = 1.33, 95% CI = 1.15-1.54), but not if given high-efficacy DMTs (n = 572 vs 3534; HR = 0.90, 95% CI = 0.71-1.13) during follow-up. Differences in disability accumulation between those with early non-disabling relapses and those with early disabling relapses were not confirmed statistically. CONCLUSION: This study suggests that early non-disabling relapses are associated with a higher risk of disability accumulation than no early relapses in RRMS. This risk may be mitigated by high-efficacy DMTs. Therefore, non-disabling relapses should be considered when making treatment decisions.

Comparative effectiveness in multiple sclerosis: A methodological comparison.

BACKGROUND: In the absence of evidence from randomised controlled trials, observational data can be used to emulate clinical trials and guide clinical decisions. Observational studies are, however, susceptible to confounding and bias. Among the used techniques to reduce indication bias are propensity score matching and marginal structural models. OBJECTIVE: To use the comparative effectiveness of fingolimod vs natalizumab to compare the results obtained with propensity score matching and marginal structural models. METHODS: Patients with clinically isolated syndrome or relapsing remitting MS who were treated with either fingolimod or natalizumab were identified in the MSBase registry. Patients were propensity score matched, and inverse probability of treatment weighted at six monthly intervals, using the following variables: age, sex, disability, MS duration, MS course, prior relapses, and prior therapies. Studied outcomes were cumulative hazard of relapse, disability accumulation, and disability improvement. RESULTS: 4608 patients (1659 natalizumab, 2949 fingolimod) fulfilled inclusion criteria, and were propensity score matched or repeatedly reweighed with marginal structural models. Natalizumab treatment was associated with a lower probability of relapse (PS matching: HR 0.67 [95% CI 0.62-0.80]; marginal structural model: 0.71 [0.62-0.80]), and higher probability of disability improvement (PS matching: 1.21 [1.02 -1.43]; marginal structural model 1.43 1.19 -1.72]). There was no evidence of a difference in the magnitude of effect between the two methods. CONCLUSIONS: The relative effectiveness of two therapies can be efficiently compared by either marginal structural models or propensity score matching when applied in clearly defined clinical contexts and in sufficiently powered cohorts.

Variability of the response to immunotherapy among subgroups of patients with multiple sclerosis.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: This study assessed the effect of patient characteristics on the response to disease-modifying therapy (DMT) in multiple sclerosis (MS). METHODS: We extracted data from 61,810 patients from 135 centers across 35 countries from the MSBase registry. The selection criteria were: clinically isolated syndrome or definite MS, follow-up ≥ 1 year, and Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) score ≥ 3, with ≥1 score recorded per year. Marginal structural models with interaction terms were used to compare the hazards of 12-month confirmed worsening and improvement of disability, and the incidence of relapses between treated and untreated patients stratified by their characteristics. RESULTS: Among 24,344 patients with relapsing MS, those on DMTs experienced 48% reduction in relapse incidence (hazard ratio [HR] = 0.52, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.45-0.60), 46% lower risk of disability worsening (HR = 0.54, 95% CI = 0.41-0.71), and 32% greater chance of disability improvement (HR = 1.32, 95% CI = 1.09-1.59). The effect of DMTs on EDSS worsening and improvement and the risk of relapses was attenuated with more severe disability. The magnitude of the effect of DMT on suppressing relapses declined with higher prior relapse rate and prior cerebral magnetic resonance imaging activity. We did not find any evidence for the effect of age on the effectiveness of DMT. After inclusion of 1985 participants with progressive MS, the effect of DMT on disability mostly depended on MS phenotype, whereas its effect on relapses was driven mainly by prior relapse activity. CONCLUSIONS: DMT is generally most effective among patients with lower disability and in relapsing MS phenotypes. There is no evidence of attenuation of the effect of DMT with age.

The comparative effectiveness of fingolimod, natalizumab, and ocrelizumab in relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis.

BACKGROUND: Fingolimod, natalizumab, and ocrelizumab are commonly used in the second-line treatment of relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS). However, these have only been compared in observational studies, not in controlled trials, with limited and inconclusive results being reported. A comparison of their effect on relapse and disability in a real-world setting is therefore needed. OBJECTIVES: The objective of this study was to compare the efficacy of fingolimod, natalizumab, and ocrelizumab in reducing disease activity in RRMS. METHODS: This multicenter, retrospective observational study was carried out with prospectively collected data from 16 centers. All consecutive RRMS patients treated with fingolimod, natalizumab, and ocrelizumab were included. Data for relapses, Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) scores, and brain magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) scans were collected. Patients were matched using propensity scores. Annualized relapse rates (ARR), time to first relapse, and disability accumulation were compared. RESULTS: Propensity score matching retained 736 patients in the fingolimod versus 370 in the natalizumab groups, 762 in the fingolimod versus 434 in the ocrelizumab groups, and 310 in the natalizumab versus 310 in the ocrelizumab groups for final analyses. Mean ARR decreased markedly from baseline after treatment in all three treatment groups. Mean on-treatment ARR was lower in natalizumab-treated patients (0.09, 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.07-0.12) than in those treated with fingolimod (0.17, 0.15-0.19, p<0.001), ocrelizumab (0.08, 0.06-0.11), and fingolimod (0.14, 0.12-0.16, p=0.001). No significant difference was observed in mean on-treatment ARR between patients treated with natalizumab (0.08, 0.06-0.11) and ocrelizumab (0.09, 0.07-0.12, p=0.54). Compared to fingolimod, the natalizumab and ocrelizumab groups exhibited a higher percentage of relapse-free patients and a lower percentage of MRI-active patients at year 1. No significance differences in disability accumulation were determined between the therapies. CONCLUSION: Natalizumab and ocrelizumab exhibited similar effects on relapse control, and both were associated with better relapse control than fingolimod. The effects of the three therapies on disability outcomes were similar.

Retrospective analysis of effectiveness of fingolimod in real life setting in Turkey (REFINE).

BACKGROUND: During multiple sclerosis (MS) treatment different modes of action such as lateral (interferon beta to glatiramer acetate or glatiramer acetate to interferon beta) or vertical (interferon beta/glatiramer acetate to fingolimod) drug switch can be performed. This study aims to investigate the clinical effectiveness of switching from the first-line injectable disease modifying treatments (iDMTs) to fingolimod (FNG) compared to switching between first-line iDMTs. METHODS: This is a multicenter, observational and retrospective study of patients with relapsing-remitting MS who had lateral and vertical switch. The observation period included three key assessment time points (before the switch, at switch, and after the switch). Data were collected from the MS patients' database by neurologists between January 2018 and June 2019. The longest follow-up period of the patients was determined as 24 months after the switch. RESULTS: In 462 MS patients that were included in the study, both treatments significantly decreased the number of relapses during the postswitch 12 months versus preswitch one year while patients in the FNG group experienced significantly fewer relapses compared to iDMT cohort in the postswitch 12 months period. FNG cohort experienced fewer relapses than in the iDMT cohort within the postswitch 2 year. The mean time to first relapse after the switch was significantly longer in the FNG group. DISCUSSION: The present study revealed superior effectiveness of vertical switch over lateral switch regarding the improvement in relapse outcomes. Patients in the FNG cohort experienced sustainably fewer relapses during the follow-up period after the switch compared the iDMT cohort. Importantly, switching to FNG was more effective in delaying time to first relapse when compared with iDMTs.

Early predictors of disability in paediatric multiple sclerosis: evidence from a multi-national registry.

BACKGROUND: Early recognition of markers of faster disability worsening in paediatric-onset multiple sclerosis (MS) is a key requisite of personalised therapy for children with MS at the earliest possible time. OBJECTIVE: To identify early predictors of rapid disability accrual in patients with paediatric-onset MS. METHODS: Using the global MSBase registry, we identified patients who were <18 years old at the onset of MS symptoms. The clinico-demographic characteristics examined as predictors of future MS Severity Score (MSSS) included sex, age at symptom onset, absence of disability at the initial assessment, maximum Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) score, relapse frequency and presence of brainstem, pyramidal, visual or cerebellar symptoms in the first year. A Bayesian log-normal generalised linear mixed model adjusted for cumulative proportion of time on higher-efficacy disease-modifying therapies (DMTs) was used to analyse the data. RESULTS: 672 patients (70% female) contributing 9357 visits were included. The median age at symptom onset was 16 (quartiles 15-17) years. Older age at symptom onset (exp(ß)=1.10 (95% CI 1.04 to 1.17)), higher EDSS score (1.22 (1.12 to 1.34)) and pyramidal (1.31 (1.11 to 1.55)), visual (1.25 (1.10 to 1.44)) or cerebellar (1.18 (1.01 to 1.38)) symptoms in the first year were associated with higher MSSS. MSSS was reduced by 4% for every 24% increase in the proportion of time on higher-efficacy DMTs (0.96 (0.93 to 0.99)). CONCLUSIONS: A relatively later onset of MS in childhood, higher disability and pyramidal, visual or cerebellar symptoms during the first year predicted significant worsening in disability in patients with paediatric-onset MS. Persistent treatment with higher-efficacy DMTs was associated with a reduced rate of disability worsening.

Multiple Sclerosis Severity Score (MSSS) improves the accuracy of individualized prediction in MS.

BACKGROUND: The MSBase prediction model of treatment response leverages multiple demographic and clinical characteristics to estimate hazards of relapses, confirmed disability accumulation (CDA), and confirmed disability improvement (CDI). The model did not include Multiple Sclerosis Severity Score (MSSS), a disease duration-adjusted ranked score of disability. OBJECTIVE: To incorporate MSSS into the MSBase prediction model and compare model accuracy with and without MSSS. METHODS: The associations between MSSS and relapse, CDA, and CDI were evaluated with marginal proportional hazards models adjusted for three principal components representative of patients' demographic and clinical characteristics. The model fit with and without MSSS was assessed with penalized r2 and Harrell C. RESULTS: A total of 5866 MS patients were started on disease-modifying therapy during prospective follow-up (age 38.4 ± 10.6 years; 72% female; disease duration 8.5 ± 7.7 years). Including MSSS into the model improved the accuracy of individual prediction of relapses by 31%, of CDA by 23%, and of CDI by 24% (Harrell C) and increased the amount of variance explained for relapses by 49%, for CDI by 11%, and for CDA by 10% as compared with the original model. CONCLUSION: Addition of a single, readily available metric, MSSS, to the comprehensive MSBase prediction model considerably improved the individual accuracy of prognostics in MS.

Confirmed disability progression as a marker of permanent disability in multiple sclerosis.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: The prevention of disability over the long term is the main treatment goal in multiple sclerosis (MS); however, randomized clinical trials evaluate only short-term treatment effects on disability. This study aimed to define criteria for 6-month confirmed disability progression events of MS with a high probability of resulting in sustained long-term disability worsening. METHODS: In total, 14,802 6-month confirmed disability progression events were identified in 8741 patients from the global MSBase registry. For each 6-month confirmed progression event (13,321 in the development and 1481 in the validation cohort), a sustained progression score was calculated based on the demographic and clinical characteristics at the time of progression that were predictive of long-term disability worsening. The score was externally validated in the Cladribine Tablets Treating Multiple Sclerosis Orally (CLARITY) trial. RESULTS: The score was based on age, sex, MS phenotype, relapse activity, disability score and its change from baseline, number of affected functional system domains and worsening in six of the domains. In the internal validation cohort, a 61% lower chance of improvement was estimated with each unit increase in the score (hazard ratio 0.39, 95% confidence interval 0.29-0.52; discriminatory index 0.89). The proportions of progression events sustained at 5 years stratified by the score were 1: 72%; 2: 88%; 3: 94%; 4: 100%. The results of the CLARITY trial were confirmed for reduction of disability progression that was >88% likely to be sustained (events with score ˃1.5). CONCLUSIONS: Clinicodemographic characteristics of 6-month confirmed disability progression events identify those at high risk of sustained long-term disability. This knowledge will allow future trials to better assess the effect of therapy on long-term disability accrual.

Disability outcomes of early cerebellar and brainstem symptoms in multiple sclerosis.

BACKGROUND: Cerebellar and brainstem symptoms are common in early stages of multiple sclerosis (MS) yet their prognostic values remain unclear. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to investigate long-term disability outcomes in patients with early cerebellar and brainstem symptoms. METHODS: This study used data from MSBase registry. Patients with early cerebellar/brainstem presentations were identified as those with cerebellar/brainstem relapse(s) or functional system score ⩾ 2 in the initial 2 years. Early pyramidal presentation was chosen as a comparator. Andersen-Gill models were used to compare cumulative hazards of (1) disability progression events and (2) relapses between patients with and without early cerebellar/brainstem symptoms. Mixed effect models were used to estimate the associations between early cerebellar/brainstem presentations and expanded disability status scale (EDSS) scores. RESULTS: The study cohort consisted of 10,513 eligible patients, including 2723 and 3915 patients with early cerebellar and brainstem symptoms, respectively. Early cerebellar presentation was associated with greater hazard of progression events (HR = 1.37, p < 0.001) and EDSS (ß = 0.16, p < 0.001). Patients with early brainstem symptoms had lower hazard of progression events (HR = 0.89, p = 0.01) and EDSS (ß = -0.06, p < 0.001). Neither presentation was associated with changes in relapse risk. CONCLUSION: Early cerebellar presentation is associated with unfavourable outcomes, while early brainstem presentation is associated with favourable prognosis. These presentations may be used as MS prognostic markers and guide therapeutic approach.

Effects of Teriflunomide on B Cell Subsets in MuSK-Induced Experimental Autoimmune Myasthenia Gravis and Multiple Sclerosis.

Antigen-specific immune responses are crucially involved in both multiple sclerosis (MS) and myasthenia gravis (MG). Teriflunomide is an immunomodulatory agent approved for treatment of MS through inhibition of lymphocyte proliferation. MG associated with muscle-specific tyrosine kinase (MuSK) antibodies often manifests with a severe disease course, prompting development of effective treatment methods. To evaluate whether teriflunomide treatment may ameliorate MuSK-autoimmunity, experimental autoimmune MG (EAMG) was induced by immunizing C57BL/6 (B6) mice three times with MuSK in complete Freund's adjuvant (CFA) (n = 17). MuSK-immunized mice were treated daily with teriflunomide (n = 8) or PBS (n = 9) starting from the third immunization (week 8) to termination (week 14). Clinical severity of EAMG was monitored. Immunological alterations were evaluated by measurement of anti-MuSK IgG, neuromuscular junction deposits, and flow cytometric analysis of lymph node cells. In MS patients under teriflunomide treatment, the peripheral blood B cell subset profile was analyzed. B6 mice treated with teriflunomide displayed relatively preserved body weight, lower EAMG prevalence, reduced average clinical grades, higher inverted screen scores, diminished anti-MuSK antibody and NMJ deposit levels. Amelioration of EAMG findings was associated with reduced memory B cell ratios in the lymph nodes. Similarly, MS patients under teriflunomide treatment showed reduced memory B cell, plasma cell, and plasmablast ratios. Teriflunomide treatment has effectively ameliorated MuSK-autoimmunity and thus may putatively be used in long-term management of MuSK-MG as an auxiliary treatment method. Teriflunomide appears to exert beneficial effects through inhibition of effector B cells.

Delay from treatment start to full effect of immunotherapies for multiple sclerosis.

In multiple sclerosis, treatment start or switch is prompted by evidence of disease activity. Whilst immunomodulatory therapies reduce disease activity, the time required to attain maximal effect is unclear. In this study we aimed to develop a method that allows identification of the time to manifest fully and clinically the effect of multiple sclerosis treatments ('therapeutic lag') on clinical disease activity represented by relapses and progression-of-disability events. Data from two multiple sclerosis registries, MSBase (multinational) and OFSEP (French), were used. Patients diagnosed with multiple sclerosis, minimum 1-year exposure to treatment, minimum 3-year pretreatment follow-up and yearly review were included in the analysis. For analysis of disability progression, all events in the subsequent 5-year period were included. Density curves, representing incidence of relapses and 6-month confirmed progression events, were separately constructed for each sufficiently represented therapy. Monte Carlo simulations were performed to identify the first local minimum of the first derivative after treatment start; this point represented the point of stabilization of treatment effect, after the maximum treatment effect was observed. The method was developed in a discovery cohort (MSBase), and externally validated in a separate, non-overlapping cohort (OFSEP). A merged MSBase-OFSEP cohort was used for all subsequent analyses. Annualized relapse rates were compared in the time before treatment start and after the stabilization of treatment effect following commencement of each therapy. We identified 11 180 eligible treatment epochs for analysis of relapses and 4088 treatment epochs for disability progression. External validation was performed in four therapies, with no significant difference in the bootstrapped mean differences in therapeutic lag duration between registries. The duration of therapeutic lag for relapses was calculated for 10 therapies and ranged between 12 and 30 weeks. The duration of therapeutic lag for disability progression was calculated for seven therapies and ranged between 30 and 70 weeks. Significant differences in the pre- versus post-treatment annualized relapse rate were present for all therapies apart from intramuscular interferon beta-1a. In conclusion we have developed, and externally validated, a method to objectively quantify the duration of therapeutic lag on relapses and disability progression in different therapies in patients more than 3 years from multiple sclerosis onset. Objectively defined periods of expected therapeutic lag allows insights into the evaluation of treatment response in randomized clinical trials and may guide clinical decision-making in patients who experience early on-treatment disease activity. This method will subsequently be applied in studies that evaluate the effect of patient and disease characteristics on therapeutic lag.

Early clinical markers of aggressive multiple sclerosis.

Patients with the 'aggressive' form of multiple sclerosis accrue disability at an accelerated rate, typically reaching Expanded Disability Status Score (EDSS) ≥ 6 within 10 years of symptom onset. Several clinicodemographic factors have been associated with aggressive multiple sclerosis, but less research has focused on clinical markers that are present in the first year of disease. The development of early predictive models of aggressive multiple sclerosis is essential to optimize treatment in this multiple sclerosis subtype. We evaluated whether patients who will develop aggressive multiple sclerosis can be identified based on early clinical markers. We then replicated this analysis in an independent cohort. Patient data were obtained from the MSBase observational study. Inclusion criteria were (i) first recorded disability score (EDSS) within 12 months of symptom onset; (ii) at least two recorded EDSS scores; and (iii) at least 10 years of observation time, based on time of last recorded EDSS score. Patients were classified as having 'aggressive multiple sclerosis' if all of the following criteria were met: (i) EDSS ≥ 6 reached within 10 years of symptom onset; (ii) EDSS ≥ 6 confirmed and sustained over ≥6 months; and (iii) EDSS ≥ 6 sustained until the end of follow-up. Clinical predictors included patient variables (sex, age at onset, baseline EDSS, disease duration at first visit) and recorded relapses in the first 12 months since disease onset (count, pyramidal signs, bowel-bladder symptoms, cerebellar signs, incomplete relapse recovery, steroid administration, hospitalization). Predictors were evaluated using Bayesian model averaging. Independent validation was performed using data from the Swedish Multiple Sclerosis Registry. Of the 2403 patients identified, 145 were classified as having aggressive multiple sclerosis (6%). Bayesian model averaging identified three statistical predictors: age > 35 at symptom onset, EDSS ≥ 3 in the first year, and the presence of pyramidal signs in the first year. This model significantly predicted aggressive multiple sclerosis [area under the curve (AUC) = 0.80, 95% confidence intervals (CIs): 0.75, 0.84, positive predictive value = 0.15, negative predictive value = 0.98]. The presence of all three signs was strongly predictive, with 32% of such patients meeting aggressive disease criteria. The absence of all three signs was associated with a 1.4% risk. Of the 556 eligible patients in the Swedish Multiple Sclerosis Registry cohort, 34 (6%) met criteria for aggressive multiple sclerosis. The combination of all three signs was also predictive in this cohort (AUC = 0.75, 95% CIs: 0.66, 0.84, positive predictive value = 0.15, negative predictive value = 0.97). Taken together, these findings suggest that older age at symptom onset, greater disability during the first year, and pyramidal signs in the first year are early indicators of aggressive multiple sclerosis.

Risk of secondary progressive multiple sclerosis: A longitudinal study.

BACKGROUND: The risk factors for conversion from relapsing-remitting to secondary progressive multiple sclerosis remain highly contested. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to determine the demographic, clinical and paraclinical features that influence the risk of conversion to secondary progressive multiple sclerosis. METHODS: Patients with adult-onset relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis and at least four recorded disability scores were selected from MSBase, a global observational cohort. The risk of conversion to objectively defined secondary progressive multiple sclerosis was evaluated at multiple time points per patient using multivariable marginal Cox regression models. Sensitivity analyses were performed. RESULTS: A total of 15,717 patients were included in the primary analysis. Older age (hazard ratio (HR) = 1.02, p < 0.001), longer disease duration (HR = 1.01, p = 0.038), a higher Expanded Disability Status Scale score (HR = 1.30, p < 0.001), more rapid disability trajectory (HR = 2.82, p < 0.001) and greater number of relapses in the previous year (HR = 1.07, p = 0.010) were independently associated with an increased risk of secondary progressive multiple sclerosis. Improving disability (HR = 0.62, p = 0.039) and disease-modifying therapy exposure (HR = 0.71, p = 0.007) were associated with a lower risk. Recent cerebral magnetic resonance imaging activity, evidence of spinal cord lesions and oligoclonal bands in the cerebrospinal fluid were not associated with the risk of conversion. CONCLUSION: Risk of secondary progressive multiple sclerosis increases with age, duration of illness and worsening disability and decreases with improving disability. Therapy may delay the onset of secondary progression.

Sleep disturbance and cognitive decline in multiple sclerosis patients with isolated optic neuritis as the first demyelinating event.

PURPOSE: Multiple sclerosis (MS) patients whose first demyelinating event is optic neuritis have been claimed to display a milder disease course and reduced physical disability. Our aim was to investigate the impact of the clinical features of the first clinical episode on cognitive disability and sleep dysfunction in MS. METHODS: A total of 26 (10 with optic neuritis as the first clinical event) MS patients were recruited. A comprehensive sleep study was performed, and a panel of tests were administered to examine cognitive and motor performance. Serum levels of sleep-related mediators orexin-A and melatonin were measured by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. Subjective sleep quality was evaluated by Pittsburgh sleep quality test, and daytime excessive sleepiness was tested by Epworth sleepiness scale. RESULTS: MS patients with the first clinical episode of optic neuritis and patients with at least one optic neuritis attack exhibited increased daytime sleepiness, higher sleep efficiency and NREM duration and lower total wake time. Patients with a history of optic neuritis obtained more favorable scores in neuropsychological tests measuring executive functions and complex attention as compared to those who had never experienced optic neuritis. Melatonin and orexin-A levels were lower in patients with optic neuritis onset. The higher no. of optic neuritis attacks was associated with reduced wake time and higher symbol digit modalities test scores. CONCLUSIONS: Having a history of optic neuritis is associated with improved sleep quality and executive functions but increased daytime sleepiness. Reduction of orexin-A and melatonin levels might be one of the underlying mechanisms.

Comparison of fingolimod, dimethyl fumarate and teriflunomide for multiple sclerosis.

OBJECTIVE: Oral immunotherapies have become a standard treatment in relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis. Direct comparison of their effect on relapse and disability is needed. METHODS: We identified all patients with relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis treated with teriflunomide, dimethyl fumarate or fingolimod, with minimum 3-month treatment persistence and disability follow-up in the global MSBase cohort study. Patients were matched using propensity scores. Three pairwise analyses compared annualised relapse rates and hazards of disability accumulation, disability improvement and treatment discontinuation (analysed with negative binomial models and weighted conditional survival models, with pairwise censoring). RESULTS: The eligible cohorts consisted of 614 (teriflunomide), 782 (dimethyl fumarate) or 2332 (fingolimod) patients, followed over the median of 2.5 years. Annualised relapse rates were lower on fingolimod compared with teriflunomide (0.18 vs 0.24; p=0.05) and dimethyl fumarate (0.20 vs 0.26; p=0.01) and similar on dimethyl fumarate and teriflunomide (0.19 vs 0.22; p=0.55). No differences in disability accumulation (p≥0.59) or improvement (p≥0.14) were found between the therapies. In patients with ≥3-month treatment persistence, subsequent discontinuations were less likely on fingolimod than teriflunomide and dimethyl fumarate (p<0.001). Discontinuation rates on teriflunomide and dimethyl fumarate were similar (p=0.68). CONCLUSION: The effect of fingolimod on relapse frequency was superior to teriflunomide and dimethyl fumarate. The effect of the three oral therapies on disability outcomes was similar during the initial 2.5 years on treatment. Persistence on fingolimod was superior to the two comparator drugs.

Microbiota stratification identifies disease-specific alterations in neuro-Behçet's disease and multiple sclerosis.

OBJECTIVES: Altered gut microbiota community dynamics are implicated in diverse human diseases including inflammatory disorders such as neuro-Behçet's disease (NBD) and multiple sclerosis (MS). Traditionally, microbiota communities are analysed uniformly across control and disease groups, but recent reports of subsample clustering indicate a potential need for analytical stratification. The objectives of this study are to analyse and compare faecal microbiota community signatures of ethno-geographical, age and gender matched adult healthy controls (HC), MS and NBD individuals. METHODS: Faecal microbiota community compositions in adult HC (n=14), NBD patients (n=13) and MS (n=13) were analysed by 16S rRNA gene sequencing and standard bioinformatics pipelines. Bipartite networks were then used to identify and re-analyse dominant compositional clusters in respective groups. RESULTS: We identified Prevotella and Bacteroides dominated subsample clusters in HC, MS, and NBD cohorts. Our study confirmed previous reports that Prevotella is a major dysbiotic target in these diseases. We demonstrate that subsample stratification is required to identify significant disease-associated microbiota community shifts with increased Clostridiales evident in Prevotella-stratified NBD and Bacteroides-stratified MS patients. CONCLUSIONS: Patient cohort stratification may be needed to facilitate identification of common microbiota community shifts for causation testing in disease.