Forest biomass, productivity and carbon cycling along a rainfall gradient in West Africa.

Net Primary Productivity (NPP) is one of the most important parameters in describing the functioning of any ecosystem and yet it arguably remains a poorly quantified and understood component of carbon cycling in tropical forests, especially outside of the Americas. We provide the first comprehensive analysis of NPP and its carbon allocation to woody, canopy and root growth components at contrasting lowland West African forests spanning a rainfall gradient. Using a standardized methodology to study evergreen (EF), semi-deciduous (SDF), dry forests (DF) and woody savanna (WS), we find that (i) climate is more closely related with above and belowground C stocks than with NPP (ii) total NPP is highest in the SDF site, then the EF followed by the DF and WS and that (iii) different forest types have distinct carbon allocation patterns whereby SDF allocate in excess of 50% to canopy production and the DF and WS sites allocate 40%-50% to woody production. Furthermore, we find that (iv) compared with canopy and root growth rates the woody growth rate of these forests is a poor proxy for their overall productivity and that (v) residence time is the primary driver in the productivity-allocation-turnover chain for the observed spatial differences in woody, leaf and root biomass across the rainfall gradient. Through a systematic assessment of forest productivity we demonstrate the importance of directly measuring the main components of above and belowground NPP and encourage the establishment of more permanent carbon intensive monitoring plots across the tropics.

An integrated pan-tropical biomass map using multiple reference datasets.

We combined two existing datasets of vegetation aboveground biomass (AGB) (Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 108, 2011, 9899; Nature Climate Change, 2, 2012, 182) into a pan-tropical AGB map at 1-km resolution using an independent reference dataset of field observations and locally calibrated high-resolution biomass maps, harmonized and upscaled to 14 477 1-km AGB estimates. Our data fusion approach uses bias removal and weighted linear averaging that incorporates and spatializes the biomass patterns indicated by the reference data. The method was applied independently in areas (strata) with homogeneous error patterns of the input (Saatchi and Baccini) maps, which were estimated from the reference data and additional covariates. Based on the fused map, we estimated AGB stock for the tropics (23.4 N-23.4 S) of 375 Pg dry mass, 9-18% lower than the Saatchi and Baccini estimates. The fused map also showed differing spatial patterns of AGB over large areas, with higher AGB density in the dense forest areas in the Congo basin, Eastern Amazon and South-East Asia, and lower values in Central America and in most dry vegetation areas of Africa than either of the input maps. The validation exercise, based on 2118 estimates from the reference dataset not used in the fusion process, showed that the fused map had a RMSE 15-21% lower than that of the input maps and, most importantly, nearly unbiased estimates (mean bias 5 Mg dry mass ha(-1) vs. 21 and 28 Mg ha(-1) for the input maps). The fusion method can be applied at any scale including the policy-relevant national level, where it can provide improved biomass estimates by integrating existing regional biomass maps as input maps and additional, country-specific reference datasets.

An overview of available crop growth and yield models for studies and assessments in agriculture.

The scientific community offers numerous crop models with different levels of sophistication. In such a wide range of crop models, users should have the possibility to choose the most suitable, in terms of detail, scale and representativeness, to their objectives. However, even when an appropriate choice is made, model limitations should be clarified such that modelling studies are put in the proper perspective and robust applications are achieved. This work is an overview of available models to simulate crop growth and yield. A summary matrix with more than 70 crop models is provided, storing the main model characteristics that can help users to choose the proper tool according to their purposes. Overall, we found that two main aspects of models, despite their importance, are not always clear from the published references, i.e. the versatility of the models, in terms of reliable transferability to different conditions, and the degree of complexity. Hence, the developers of models should be encouraged to pay more attention to clarifying the model limitations and limits of applicability, and users should make an effort in proper model selection, to save time often devoted to iteration of tuning steps to force an inappropriate model to be adapted to their own purpose.

Contrasting carbon cycle along tropical forest aridity gradients in West Africa and Amazonia.

Tropical forests cover large areas of equatorial Africa and play a substantial role in the global carbon cycle. However, there has been a lack of biometric measurements to understand the forests' gross and net primary productivity (GPP, NPP) and their allocation. Here we present a detailed field assessment of the carbon budget of multiple forest sites in Africa, by monitoring 14 one-hectare plots along an aridity gradient in Ghana, West Africa. When compared with an equivalent aridity gradient in Amazonia, the studied West African forests generally had higher productivity and lower carbon use efficiency (CUE). The West African aridity gradient consistently shows the highest NPP, CUE, GPP, and autotrophic respiration at a medium-aridity site, Bobiri. Notably, NPP and GPP of the site are the highest yet reported anywhere for intact forests. Widely used data products substantially underestimate productivity when compared to biometric measurements in Amazonia and Africa. Our analysis suggests that the high productivity of the African forests is linked to their large GPP allocation to canopy and semi-deciduous characteristics.

The human footprint in the carbon cycle of temperate and boreal forests.

Temperate and boreal forests in the Northern Hemisphere cover an area of about 2 x 10(7) square kilometres and act as a substantial carbon sink (0.6-0.7 petagrams of carbon per year). Although forest expansion following agricultural abandonment is certainly responsible for an important fraction of this carbon sink activity, the additional effects on the carbon balance of established forests of increased atmospheric carbon dioxide, increasing temperatures, changes in management practices and nitrogen deposition are difficult to disentangle, despite an extensive network of measurement stations. The relevance of this measurement effort has also been questioned, because spot measurements fail to take into account the role of disturbances, either natural (fire, pests, windstorms) or anthropogenic (forest harvesting). Here we show that the temporal dynamics following stand-replacing disturbances do indeed account for a very large fraction of the overall variability in forest carbon sequestration. After the confounding effects of disturbance have been factored out, however, forest net carbon sequestration is found to be overwhelmingly driven by nitrogen deposition, largely the result of anthropogenic activities. The effect is always positive over the range of nitrogen deposition covered by currently available data sets, casting doubts on the risk of widespread ecosystem nitrogen saturation under natural conditions. The results demonstrate that mankind is ultimately controlling the carbon balance of temperate and boreal forests, either directly (through forest management) or indirectly (through nitrogen deposition).

Extending large-scale forest inventories to assess urban forests.

Urban areas are continuously expanding today, extending their influence on an increasingly large proportion of woods and trees located in or nearby urban and urbanizing areas, the so-called urban forests. Although these forests have the potential for significantly improving the quality the urban environment and the well-being of the urban population, data to quantify the extent and characteristics of urban forests are still lacking or fragmentary on a large scale. In this regard, an expansion of the domain of multipurpose forest inventories like National Forest Inventories (NFIs) towards urban forests would be required. To this end, it would be convenient to exploit the same sampling scheme applied in NFIs to assess the basic features of urban forests. This paper considers approximately unbiased estimators of abundance and coverage of urban forests, together with estimators of the corresponding variances, which can be achieved from the first phase of most large-scale forest inventories. A simulation study is carried out in order to check the performance of the considered estimators under various situations involving the spatial distribution of the urban forests over the study area. An application is worked out on the data from the Italian NFI.

The positive climate impact of the Mediterranean diet and current divergence of Mediterranean countries towards less climate sustainable food consumption patterns.

The Mediterranean diet (MD) is a world-renowned healthy dietary pattern. In the present study we analyse the climate sustainability of the MD and the greenhouse gas emissions (EGHG) associated with current dietary patterns in Mediterranean and non-Mediterranean EU countries, focusing on the major deviations from the MD health and environmental targets in Mediterranean countries. The EGHG associated with dietary patterns were calculated for seven Mediterranean countries (Cyprus, Croatia, Greece, Italy, Portugal, Spain and Malta, referred to as 7MED) and the other 21 countries in the EU 28 (referred to as 21OTHER), using 2017 as the reference year. A new harmonised compilation of 3449 carbon footprint values of food commodities, based on a standardised methodology to extract information and assign optimal footprint values and uncertainties to food items, was used to estimate EGHG of food consumption. Our findings show that the EGHG associated with the ideal MD pattern, 2.3 kg CO2equivalents (CO2eq) capita-1 d-1, are in line with planetary GHG climate targets, though GHG emissions associated with food consumption in Mediterranean countries strongly diverged from the ideal MD. Both MED and 21OTHER countries were found to have comparable dietary associated EGHG (4.46 and 4.03 kg CO2eq capita-1 d-1 respectively), almost double that expected from a sustainable dietary pattern. The primary factor of dietary divergence in 7MED countries was found to be meat overconsumption, which contributed to 60% of the EGHG daily excess (1.8 kg of CO2eq capita-1 d-1).

A multilevel carbon and water footprint dataset of food commodities.

Informing and engaging citizens to adopt sustainable diets is a key strategy for reducing global environmental impacts of the agricultural and food sectors. In this respect, the first requisite to support citizens and actors of the food sector is to provide them a publicly available, reliable and ready to use synthesis of environmental pressures associated to food commodities. Here we introduce the SU-EATABLE LIFE database, a multilevel database of carbon (CF) and water (WF) footprint values of food commodities, based on a standardized methodology to extract information and assign optimal footprint values and uncertainties to food items, starting from peer-reviewed articles and grey literature. The database and its innovative methodological framework for uncertainty treatment and data quality assurance provides a solid basis for evaluating the impact of dietary shifts on global environmental policies, including climate mitigation through greenhouse gas emission reductions. The database ensures repeatability and further expansion, providing a reliable science-based tool for managers and researcher in the food sector.

Empirical estimates of regional carbon budgets imply reduced global soil heterotrophic respiration.

Resolving regional carbon budgets is critical for informing land-based mitigation policy. For nine regions covering nearly the whole globe, we collected inventory estimates of carbon-stock changes complemented by satellite estimates of biomass changes where inventory data are missing. The net land-atmospheric carbon exchange (NEE) was calculated by taking the sum of the carbon-stock change and lateral carbon fluxes from crop and wood trade, and riverine-carbon export to the ocean. Summing up NEE from all regions, we obtained a global 'bottom-up' NEE for net land anthropogenic CO2 uptake of -2.2 ± 0.6 PgC yr-1 consistent with the independent top-down NEE from the global atmospheric carbon budget during 2000-2009. This estimate is so far the most comprehensive global bottom-up carbon budget accounting, which set up an important milestone for global carbon-cycle studies. By decomposing NEE into component fluxes, we found that global soil heterotrophic respiration amounts to a source of CO2 of 39 PgC yr-1 with an interquartile of 33-46 PgC yr-1-a much smaller portion of net primary productivity than previously reported.

Forecasting COVID-19-Associated Hospitalizations under Different Levels of Social Distancing in Lombardy and Emilia-Romagna, Northern Italy: Results from an Extended SEIR Compartmental Model.

The outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) was identified in Wuhan, China, in December 2019. As of 17 April 2020, more than 2 million cases of COVID-19 have been reported worldwide. Northern Italy is one of the world's centers of active coronavirus cases. In this study, we predicted the spread of COVID-19 and its burden on hospital care under different conditions of social distancing in Lombardy and Emilia-Romagna, the two regions of Italy most affected by the epidemic. To do this, we used a Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) deterministic model, which encompasses compartments relevant to public health interventions such as quarantine. A new compartment L was added to the model for isolated infected population, i.e., individuals tested positives that do not need hospital care. We found that in Lombardy restrictive containment measures should be prolonged at least until early July to avoid a resurgence of hospitalizations; on the other hand, in Emilia-Romagna the number of hospitalized cases could be kept under a reasonable amount with a higher contact rate. Our results suggest that territory-specific forecasts under different scenarios are crucial to enhance or take new containment measures during the epidemic.

Carbon stock increases up to old growth forest along a secondary succession in Mediterranean island ecosystems.

The occurrence of old-growth forests is quite limited in Mediterranean islands, which have been subject to particularly pronounced human impacts. Little is known about the carbon stocks of such peculiar ecosystems compared with different stages of secondary succession. We investigated the carbon variation in aboveground woody biomass, in litter and soil, and the nitrogen variation in litter and soil, in a 100 years long secondary succession in Mediterranean ecosystems. A vineyard, three stages of plant succession (high maquis, maquis-forest, and forest-maquis), and an old growth forest were compared. Soil samples at two soil depths (0-15 and 15-30 cm), and two litter types, relatively undecomposed and partly decomposed, were collected. Carbon stock in aboveground woody biomass increased from 6 Mg ha-1 in the vineyard to 105 Mg ha-1 in old growth forest. Along the secondary succession, soil carbon considerably increased from about 33 Mg ha-1 in the vineyard to about 69 Mg ha-1 in old growth forest. Soil nitrogen has more than doubled, ranging from 4.1 Mg ha-1 in the vineyard to 8.8 Mg ha-1 in old growth forest. Both soil parameters were found to be affected by successional stage and soil depth but not by their interaction. While the C/N ratio in the soil remained relatively constant during the succession, the C/N ratio of the litter strongly decreased, probably following the progressive increase in the holm oak contribution. While carbon content in litter decreased along the succession, nitrogen content slightly increased. Overall, carbon stock in aboveground woody biomass, litter and soil increased from about 48 Mg ha-1 in the vineyard to about 198 Mg ha-1 in old growth forest. The results of this study indicate that, even in Mediterranean environments, considerable amounts of carbon may be stored through secondary succession processes up to old growth forest.

Memory effects of climate and vegetation affecting net ecosystem CO2 fluxes in global forests.

Forests play a crucial role in the global carbon (C) cycle by storing and sequestering a substantial amount of C in the terrestrial biosphere. Due to temporal dynamics in climate and vegetation activity, there are significant regional variations in carbon dioxide (CO2) fluxes between the biosphere and atmosphere in forests that are affecting the global C cycle. Current forest CO2 flux dynamics are controlled by instantaneous climate, soil, and vegetation conditions, which carry legacy effects from disturbances and extreme climate events. Our level of understanding from the legacies of these processes on net CO2 fluxes is still limited due to their complexities and their long-term effects. Here, we combined remote sensing, climate, and eddy-covariance flux data to study net ecosystem CO2 exchange (NEE) at 185 forest sites globally. Instead of commonly used non-dynamic statistical methods, we employed a type of recurrent neural network (RNN), called Long Short-Term Memory network (LSTM) that captures information from the vegetation and climate's temporal dynamics. The resulting data-driven model integrates interannual and seasonal variations of climate and vegetation by using Landsat and climate data at each site. The presented LSTM algorithm was able to effectively describe the overall seasonal variability (Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency, NSE = 0.66) and across-site (NSE = 0.42) variations in NEE, while it had less success in predicting specific seasonal and interannual anomalies (NSE = 0.07). This analysis demonstrated that an LSTM approach with embedded climate and vegetation memory effects outperformed a non-dynamic statistical model (i.e. Random Forest) for estimating NEE. Additionally, it is shown that the vegetation mean seasonal cycle embeds most of the information content to realistically explain the spatial and seasonal variations in NEE. These findings show the relevance of capturing memory effects from both climate and vegetation in quantifying spatio-temporal variations in forest NEE.

ASPIS, A Flexible Multispectral System for Airborne Remote Sensing Environmental Applications.

Airborne multispectral and hyperspectral remote sensing is a powerful tool for environmental monitoring applications. In this paper we describe a new system (ASPIS) composed by a 4-CCD spectral sensor, a thermal IR camera and a laser altimeter that is mounted on a flexible Sky-Arrow airplane. A test application of the multispectral sensor to estimate durum wheat quality is also presented.

Drying and wetting of Mediterranean soils stimulates decomposition and carbon dioxide emission: the "Birch effect".

Observations on the net carbon exchange of forests in the European Mediterranean region, measured recently by the eddy covariance method, have revived interest in a phenomenon first characterized on agricultural and forest soils in East Africa in the 1950s and 1960s by H. F. Birch and now often referred to as the "Birch effect." When soils become dry during summer because of lack of rain, as is common in regions with Mediterranean climate, or are dried in the laboratory in controlled conditions, and are then rewetted by precipitation or irrigation, there is a burst of decomposition, mineralization and release of inorganic nitrogen and CO(2). In forests in Mediterranean climates in southern Europe, this effect has been observed with eddy covariance techniques and soil respiration chambers at the stand and small plot scales, respectively. Following the early work of Birch, laboratory incubations of soils at controlled temperatures and water contents have been used to characterize CO(2) release following the rewetting of dry soils. A simple empirical model based on laboratory incubations demonstrates that the amount of carbon mineralized over one year can be predicted from soil temperature and precipitation regime, provided that carbon lost as CO(2) is taken into account. We show that the amount of carbon returned to the atmosphere following soil rewetting can reduce significantly the annual net carbon gain by Mediterranean forests.

The methane sink associated to soils of natural and agricultural ecosystems in Italy.

In the present work, the CH4 sink associated to Italian soils was calculated by using a process-based model controlled by gas diffusivity and microbial activity, which was run by using a raster-based geographical information system. Georeferenced data included land cover CLC2000, soil properties from the European Soil Database, climatic data from the MARS-STAT database, plus several derived soils properties based on published algorithms applied to the above mentioned databases. Overall CH4 consumption from natural and agricultural sources accounted for a total of 43.3 Gg CH4 yr(-1), with 28.1 Gg CH4 yr(-1) removed in natural ecosystems and 15.1 Gg CH4 yr(-1) in agricultural ecosystems. The highest CH4 uptake rates were obtained for natural areas of Southern Apennines and islands of Sardinia and Sicily, and were mainly associated to areas covered by sclerophyllous vegetation (259.7+/-30.2 mg CH4 m(-2) yr(-1)) and broad-leaved forest (237.5 mg CH4 m(-2) yr(-1)). In terms of total sink strength broad-leaved forests were the dominant ecosystem. The overall contribution of each ecosystem type to the whole CH4 sink depended on the total area covered by the specific ecosystem and on its exact geographic distribution. The latter determines the type of climate present in the area and the dominant soil type, both factors which showed to have a strong influence on CH4 uptake rates. The aggregated CH4 sink, calculated for natural ecosystems present in the Italian region, is significantly higher than previously reported estimates, which were extrapolated from fluxes measured in other temperate ecosystems.

Coexistence trend contingent to Mediterranean oaks with different leaf habits.

In a previous work we developed a mathematical model to explain the co-occurrence of evergreen and deciduous oak groups in the Mediterranean region, regarded as one of the distinctive features of Mediterranean biodiversity. The mathematical analysis showed that a stabilizing mechanism resulting from niche difference (i.e. different water use and water stress tolerance) between groups allows their coexistence at intermediate values of suitable soil water content. A simple formal derivation of the model expresses this hypothesis in a testable form linked uniquely to the actual evapotranspiration of forests community. In the present work we ascertain whether this simplified conclusion possesses some degree of explanatory power by comparing available data on oaks distributions and remotely sensed evapotranspiration (MODIS product) in a large-scale survey embracing the western Mediterranean area. Our findings confirmed the basic assumptions of model addressed on large scale, but also revealed asymmetric responses to water use and water stress tolerance between evergreen and deciduous oaks that should be taken into account to increase the understating of species interactions and, ultimately, improve the modeling capacity to explain co-occurrence.

Long tree-ring chronologies provide evidence of recent tree growth decrease in a Central African tropical forest.

It is still unclear whether the exponential rise of atmospheric CO2 concentration has produced a fertilization effect on tropical forests, thus incrementing their growth rate, in the last two centuries. As many factors affect tree growth patterns, short -term studies might be influenced by the confounding effect of several interacting environmental variables on plant growth. Long-term analyses of tree growth can elucidate long-term trends of plant growth response to dominant drivers. The study of annual rings, applied to long tree-ring chronologies in tropical forest trees enables such analysis. Long-term tree-ring chronologies of three widespread African species were measured in Central Africa to analyze the growth of trees over the last two centuries. Growth trends were correlated to changes in global atmospheric CO2 concentration and local variations in the main climatic drivers, temperature and rainfall. Our results provided no evidence for a fertilization effect of CO2 on tree growth. On the contrary, an overall growth decline was observed for all three species in the last century, which appears to be significantly correlated to the increase in local temperature. These findings provide additional support to the global observations of a slowing down of C sequestration in the trunks of forest trees in recent decades. Data indicate that the CO2 increase alone has not been sufficient to obtain a tree growth increase in tropical trees. The effect of other changing environmental factors, like temperature, may have overridden the fertilization effect of CO2.

A hypothesis on the evolution of isoprenoid emission by oaks based on the correlation between emission type and Quercus taxonomy.

We show that Mediterranean oaks that emit isoprene, monoterpenes or no isoprenoids belong to different subgenera as indicated by morpho-taxonomy and molecular genetics. On the other hand, oaks from North America and Asia that are taxonomically similar to the Mediterranean monoterpene emitter Q. ilex emit isoprene only. We surmise that isoprene emission is a genetic character which evolved ancestrally in the oak genus since this is the prevalent emission type in oaks widespread around the world and adapted to different environments. This ancestral character may have been either lost or modified in more recent clades such as those originating the Mediterranean oaks. If our hypothesis is correct then the taxonomy of European oaks is validated by this independent trait. Isoprenoid emission could serve as a chemo-taxonomical marker and could be used to reconstruct the phylogeny of oaks in association with molecular markers.

Biodiversity mapping in a tropical West African forest with airborne hyperspectral data.

Tropical forests are major repositories of biodiversity, but are fast disappearing as land is converted to agriculture. Decision-makers need to know which of the remaining forests to prioritize for conservation, but the only spatial information on forest biodiversity has, until recently, come from a sparse network of ground-based plots. Here we explore whether airborne hyperspectral imagery can be used to predict the alpha diversity of upper canopy trees in a West African forest. The abundance of tree species were collected from 64 plots (each 1250 m(2) in size) within a Sierra Leonean national park, and Shannon-Wiener biodiversity indices were calculated. An airborne spectrometer measured reflectances of 186 bands in the visible and near-infrared spectral range at 1 m(2) resolution. The standard deviations of these reflectance values and their first-order derivatives were calculated for each plot from the c. 1250 pixels of hyperspectral information within them. Shannon-Wiener indices were then predicted from these plot-based reflectance statistics using a machine-learning algorithm (Random Forest). The regression model fitted the data well (pseudo-R(2) = 84.9%), and we show that standard deviations of green-band reflectances and infra-red region derivatives had the strongest explanatory powers. Our work shows that airborne hyperspectral sensing can be very effective at mapping canopy tree diversity, because its high spatial resolution allows within-plot heterogeneity in reflectance to be characterized, making it an effective tool for monitoring forest biodiversity over large geographic scales.

Climate change threatens coexistence within communities of Mediterranean forested wetlands.

The Mediterranean region is one of the hot spots of climate change. This study aims at understanding what are the conditions sustaining tree diversity in Mediterranean wet forests under future scenarios of altered hydrological regimes. The core of the work is a quantitative, dynamic model describing the coexistence of different Mediterranean tree species, typical of arid or semi-arid wetlands. Two kind of species, i.e. Hygrophilous (drought sensitive, flood resistant) and Non-hygrophilous (drought resistant, flood sensitive), are broadly defined according to the distinct adaptive strategies of trees against water stress of summer drought and winter flooding. We argue that at intermediate levels of water supply the dual role of water (resource and stress) results in the coexistence of the two kind of species. A bifurcation analysis allows us to assess the effects of climate change on the coexistence of the two species in order to highlight the impacts of predicted climate scenarios on tree diversity. Specifically, the model has been applied to Mediterranean coastal swamp forests of Central Italy located at Castelporziano Estate and Circeo National Park. Our results show that there are distinct rainfall thresholds beyond which stable coexistence becomes impossible. Regional climatic projections show that the lower rainfall threshold may be approached or crossed during the XXI century, calling for an urgent adaptation and mitigation response to prevent biodiversity losses.