Inside edge - prevalence and factors associated with symptoms of anxiety/depression in professional cricketers.

The purpose of this study was to i) determine the prevalence of anxiety/depression symptoms in professional cricketers and ii) identify factors associated with symptoms of anxiety/depression. One-hundred and seventy-seven (n = 177, response rate of 76%) professional cricketers completed the General Health Questionnaire 12 (GHQ-12). Odd ratios (OR) for anxiety/depression symptoms were related to players' career, family and education. Prevalence of symptoms of anxiety/depression was 59% (n = 104/177). Anxiety/depression symptoms increased when players were contracted for more than 2 years (OR: 5.0; 95% CI: 1.2-21.3; p = 0.028) and if they played their last offseason overseas (OR: 3.5; 95% CI: 1.3-9.6; p = 0.013). Anxiety/depression symptoms decreased by 70% when players made "productive use" of their time in the offseason (OR: 0.3; 95% CI: 0.1-0.9; p = 0.036) and contracted for 2 years (OR: 0.3; 95% CI: 0.1-1.0; p = 0.049). These findings can be incorporated into cricket mental health literacy programmes to improve awareness and understanding, and to encourage early help-seeking.

Effectiveness and safety of dolutegravir two-drug regimens in virologically suppressed people living with HIV: a systematic literature review and meta-analysis of real-world evidence.

OBJECTIVES: Dolutegravir (DTG) is widely recommended within three-drug regimens. However, similar efficacy and tolerability have also been achieved with DTG within two-drug regimens in clinical trials. This study evaluated the real-world effectiveness and discontinuations in people living with HIV-1 (PLHIV) switching to DTG with lamivudine (3TC) or rilpivirine (RPV). METHODS: This was a one-arm meta-analysis utilizing data from a systematic literature review. Data from real-world evidence studies of DTG + RPV and DTG + 3TC were extracted, pooled and analysed. The primary outcome was the proportion of patients with viral failure (VF; ≥ 50 copies/mL in two consecutive measurements and/or ≥ 1000 copies/mL in a single measurement) at week 48 (W48) and week 96 (W96). Other outcomes included virological suppression (VS; < 50 copies/mL) and discontinuations (W48 and W96). Estimates were calculated for VF, VS as per snapshot (VSS) and on treatment analysis (VSOT), and discontinuations. RESULTS: Pooled mean estimates of VF for DTG + 3TC and DTG + RPV were 0.8% [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.4-1.3] and 0.6% (95% CI: 0.0-1.6), respectively, at W48. VSS rate at W48 was 85.0% (95% CI: 82.3-87.5) for DTG + 3TC regimen and 92.4% (95% CI: 85.0-97.7) in the DTG + RPV regimen. The DTG + 3TC and DTG + RPV regimens led to discontinuations in 13.6% (95% CI: 11.1-16.2) and 7.2% (95% CI: 2.1-14.4) of patients, respectively, at W48. Similar results were observed at W96. CONCLUSIONS: Treatment with DTG + 3TC or DTG + RPV in clinical practice provides a low rate of VF and a high rate of VS when initiated in virologically suppressed PLHIV with diverse backgrounds.

Breed effects and heterosis for weight traits and tick count in a cross between an indigenous fat-tailed and a commercial sheep breed.

Ticks can compromise productivity and welfare in free-ranging sheep. Chemical tick control may not be sustainable in the long term. Alternative control measures must be sought for an integrated control programme. Birth and weaning weights as well as log transformed overall tick count of indigenous fat-tailed Namaqua Afrikaner (NA), commercial Dorper and NA x Dorper cross lambs were studied under extensive conditions. Relative to NA lambs, Dorper lambs were 22.2% heavier at weaning (P < 0.05). Geometric means for total tick count on Dorper lambs exceeded those of their Namaqua Afrikaner contemporaries by more than twofold (P < 0.05). Relative to the pure-breed midparent value, the mean performance of NA x Dorper lambs was 7.9% more for birth weight, 11.2% more for weaning weight and 26.2% less for the back transformed means for total tick count (P < 0.05). Heterosis for total tick count was slightly greater at -29.3% when data were adjusted for the larger size of NA x Dorper lambs. Crossing commercial Dorper sheep with a hardy, indigenous breed therefore resulted in lower levels of tick infestation without compromising live weight in progeny so derived. Hardy, indigenous genetic resources like the NA should be conserved and used in further studies of ovine genetics of resistance to ticks in South Africa.

Polypharmacy and potential drug-drug interactions for people with HIV in the UK from the Climate-HIV database.

OBJECTIVES: People with HIV (PWHIV) are likely to need therapies for comorbidities as they age. We assessed risk of drug-drug interactions (DDIs) in PWHIV. METHODS: The Climate-HIV electronic recording system was used to cross-sectionally analyse records from PWHIV aged ≥ 18 years attending four UK HIV units with a current antiretroviral (ARV) prescription in February 2018. Antiretroviral and non-ARV medications were categorized by clinical significance of DDIs (University of Liverpool DDI tool). Potential DDIs were predicted using treatment guidelines for commonly recorded comorbidities. RESULTS: Among 4630 PWHIV (44% female), 41% were ≥ 50 years old. The average number of non-ARV comedications increased from < 1 for patients aged ≤ 24 years to > 5 for patients aged ≥ 75 years; 65% were taking one or more non-ARV comedications. The median (interquartile range) number of non-ARVs was 1 (0-2) and 2 (1-5) for those aged < 50 and ≥ 50 years, respectively. Common comorbidities/concurrent health conditions occurred more frequently in patients aged ≥ 50 years vs. < 50 (53% vs. 34%). Boosted protease inhibitors were associated with the highest proportion of contraindicated comedications; dolutegravir and raltegravir had the fewest. For non-ARVs, sildenafil and quetiapine were most likely to result in DDIs. Guideline-recommended treatments for hepatitis C, hepatitis B, and tuberculosis had the highest proportions of contraindications when combined with ARV regimens, while treatments for hepatitis C, malignancy, and mental health conditions had the highest proportion of combinations potentially causing DDIs requiring dose monitoring or adjustment. CONCLUSIONS: Non-ARV use by PWHIV is high and increases with age. Treatment decisions for ageing PWHIV should consider guideline recommendations for comorbidities.

Experiences of foreign medical graduates (FMGs), international medical graduates (IMGs) and overseas trained graduates (OTGs) on entering developing or middle-income countries like South Africa: a scoping review.

BACKGROUND: Foreign medical graduates (FMGs) have continued to render effective health care services to underserved communities in many high- and middle-income countries. In rural and disadvantaged areas of South Africa, FMGs have alleviated the critical shortage of doctors. FMGs experience challenges to adjust to new working environments as they have studied and obtained their medical qualifications in a country that differs from the one where they eventually choose to practise. OBJECTIVES: This scoping review synthesises literature about the experiences of FMGs upon entering a host country and the factors that facilitate their adjustment to the new context. METHODS: The systematic review was performed to analyse articles from an initial scoping of published literature on the experiences and adjustment of FMGs between 2000 and 2016. Searches were conducted through MEDLINE and PUBMED on keywords that included "foreign medical graduates", "experiences" "adjustment", "adaptation" and "assimilation". The database searches yielded 268 articles and a further 3 were identified through other sources. The number of articles was reduced to 20 after the removal of duplicates and the application of the exclusion criteria. A qualitative thematic analysis was performed. RESULTS: The searches revealed an overall lack of studies on the experiences and adjustment of FMGs from the African continent. FMGs faced professional barriers, lacked country-specific knowledge and experienced stress when practising in a new location. They attributed their successful adjustment to innate personal characteristics including a persistent attitude and the use of various coping strategies. Other facilitating factors included early orientation and professional and personal support. CONCLUSION: The review highlighted the need for research from developing and middle-income countries and for an increased awareness of the challenges and enablers to help FMGs adjust to new clinical settings.

Bacteria as biological control agents of freshwater cyanobacteria: is it feasible beyond the laboratory?

Biological control of cyanobacteria is a well-researched area with a central focus on laboratory-scale studies. Numerous reports have been made on algicidal isolates, with bacteria as a major component of the antagonists. The research in this review draws a brief summary of what is currently known in the area of freshwater cyanobacteria being inhibited by bacterial isolates. Proteobacteria, Bacteroidetes and Firmicutes are among the most commonly reported phyla of bacteria associated with or employed in this research area. However, there are limited reports of upscaling these control measures beyond the laboratory scale. Lytic control agents are the most commonly reported in the literature with subsequent cyanotoxin release. From a water quality perspective, this is not feasible. Based on the available literature, temperature, pH and nutrient changes have been explored in this short review as possible contributors to less optimal bacterial performance. Moreover, the investigation into optimising some of these parameters may lead to increased bacterial performance and, therefore, viability for upscaling this biological control. Through the compilation of current research, this review offers insight to live predator-prey cell interactions between cyanobacteria and algicidal bacteria.

Comparative Early Life Stage Toxicity of the African Clawed Frog, Xenopus laevis Following Exposure to Selected Herbicide Formulations Applied to Eradicate Alien Plants in South Africa.

The rise in pesticides application has increased the need for better understanding of their ecological impacts. The global amphibian declines, for example, have been positively correlated with pesticides use. The differential susceptibility in the developmental stages of amphibians to chemical substances are still largely unknown. We examined the 96-h differential toxicity responses of embryos, premetamorphic and transitional larval stage of Xenopus laevis, to six formulated aquatic herbicide products containing the active ingredients of diquat dibromide (Midstream), glufosinate ammonium (Basta), imazapyr (Arsenal), and three glyphosate formulations (Roundup, Kilo Max, and Environ Glyphosate). The results showed the premetamorphic stage as the most sensitive to the herbicides toxicity. This study confirmed that the developmental stage at which amphibian are exposed to contaminants is critical to their survival and that the chemical contamination hypothesis of the global decline of amphibians should continue to be considered. This establishment of the premetamorphic larval as sensitive toxicity representative for all developmental stages of X. laevis means that this stage could be used more extensively in pesticides toxicity assessments.

Evidence for sperm storage in common smoothhound shark Mustelus mustelus and paternity assessment in a single litter from South Africa.

The present histological study of adult female common smoothhound shark Mustelus mustelus demonstrates that the species can store sperm in their oviducal glands. In addition, single paternity of a litter of 22 pups is reported, contributing to further knowledge regarding the genetic and behavioural mating strategy of M. mustelus.

Thyroid function of steatitis-affected Mozambique tilapia Oreochromis mossambicus from a sub-tropical African reservoir.

Thyroid function and nutritional indicators were measured in obese, steatitis-affected Mozambique tilapia Oreochromis mossambicus from Loskop Reservoir (LR), South Africa. Plasma thyroid hormones (especially T3) and thyroid follicle histomorphology revealed high levels of activity in every aspect of the thyroid cascade measured in fish from LR compared to a reference population of steatitis-free fish. Concurrent measurements of nutritional state including plasma lipids, liver lipid content and hepatocyte size showed that fish from LR had significant energy stores indicative of abundant nutritional intake. There were distinct sex and seasonal differences, with the highest plasma lipids and T3 levels observed in steatitis-affected females during spring and summer. Positive correlations were observed between plasma lipids (especially cholesterol) and T3 concentrations in fish from both populations, indicating a link between lipid metabolism and thyroid function. There was no direct evidence of thyroid disruption, but this cannot be ruled out until further research determines the factors that underlie the homeostatic shift leading to elevated plasma and liver lipids and T3 levels in steatitis-affected tilapia.

Estimation of genetic parameters for functional longevity in the South African Holstein cattle using a piecewise Weibull proportional hazards model.

Non-genetic factors influencing functional longevity and the heritability of the trait were estimated in South African Holsteins using a piecewise Weibull proportional hazards model. Data consisted of records of 161,222 of daughters of 2,051 sires calving between 1995 and 2013. The reference model included fixed time-independent age at first calving and time-dependent interactions involving lactation number, region, season and age of calving, within-herd class of milk production, fat and protein content, class of annual variation in herd size and the random herd-year effect. Random sire and maternal grandsire effects were added to the model to estimate genetic parameters. The within-lactation Weibull baseline hazards were assumed to change at 0, 270, 380 days and at drying date. Within-herd milk production class had the largest contribution to the relative risk of culling. Relative culling risk increased with lower protein and fat per cent production classes and late age at first calving. Cows in large shrinking herds also had high relative risk of culling. The estimate of the sire genetic variance was 0.0472 ± 0.0017 giving a theoretical heritability estimate of 0.11 in the complete absence of censoring. Genetic trends indicated an overall decrease in functional longevity of 0.014 standard deviation from 1995 to 2007. There are opportunities for including the trait in the breeding objective for South African Holstein cattle.

The tooth, the whole tooth and nothing but the tooth: tooth shape and ontogenetic shift dynamics in the white shark Carcharodon carcharias.

Results from this study of the white shark Carcharodon carcharias include measurements obtained using a novel photographic method that reveal significant differences between the sexes in the relationship between tooth cuspidity and shark total length, and a novel ontogenetic change in male tooth shape. Males exhibit broader upper first teeth and increased distal inclination of upper third teeth with increasing length, while females do not present a consistent morphological change. Substantial individual variation, with implications for pace of life syndrome, was present in males and tooth polymorphism was suggested in females. Sexual differences and individual variation may play major roles in ontogenetic changes in tooth morphology in C. carcharias, with potential implications for their foraging biology. Such individual and sexual differences should be included in studies of ontogenetic shift dynamics in other species and systems.

Does gender impact on female doctors'experiences in the training and practice of surgery? A single centre study.

BACKGROUND: Surgery has been identified as a male-dominated specialty in South Africa and abroad. This study explored how female registrars perceived the impact of gender on their training and practice of surgery. METHOD: A self-administered questionnaire was used to explore whether females perceived any benefits to training in a male-dominated specialty, their choice of mentors and the challenges that they encountered during surgical training. RESULTS: Thirty-two female registrars participated in the study. The respondents were mainly South African (91%) and enrolled in seven surgical specialties. Twenty-seven (84%) respondents were satisfied with their training and skills development. Twenty-four (75%) respondents had a mentor from the department. Seventeen (53%) respondents perceived having received differential treatment due to their gender and 25 (78.2%) thought that the gender of their mentor did not impact on the quality of the guidance received in surgery. Challenges included physical threats to female respondents from patients and disrespect, emotional threats and defaming statements from male registrars. Additional challenges included time-constraints for family and academic work, poor work-life balance and being treated differently due to their gender. Seventeen (53%) respondents would consider teaching in the Department of Surgery. CONCLUSION: Generally, females had positive perceptions of their training in Surgery. They expressed concern about finding and maintaining a work-life balance. The gender of their mentor did not impact on the quality of the training but 'bullying' from male peers and selected supervisors occurred. Respondents will continue to recommend the specialty as a satisfying career to young female students.

Combinations of potent topical steroids, mercury and hydroquinone are common in internationally manufactured skin-lightening products: a spectroscopic study.

BACKGROUND: The topical steroids betamethasone (BM) and clobetasol propionate (CP) are illegal in cosmetics. Hydroquinone (HQ) and mercury (Hg) are either illegal or allowed only in limited concentrations (2% and 1 ppm, respectively). AIM: To investigate active ingredients and countries of origin of popular skin-lightening products available in Cape Town, South Africa. METHODS: In total, 29 products were examined; of these, 22 products were purchased from informal vendors, and 2 products (out of a total of 29) were purchased over the counter. HQ, Hg(2+) and steroids were quantified by high-performance liquid chromatography-ultraviolet spectrophotometry, inductively coupled plasma-mass spectrometry and liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry, respectively. RESULTS: Of the 29 products, 22 (75.9%), all imported and bought from informal vendors, contained illegal or banned ingredients: 13 (44.8%) contained steroids (9 CP, 4 BM), 12 (41.4%) contained Hg (30-2300 ppm), and 11 (37.9%) contained HQ. Sequentially, the products originated from Italy (27.3%, n = 6), India (22.7%, n = 5), the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) (22.7%, n = 5), Cote d'Ivoire (9.1%, n = 2), USA (9.1%, n = 2), UK (4.5%, n = 1) and France (4.5%, n = 1). Two products, one from India and one from the DRC, contained all four ingredients (HQ, Hg, BM, CP). Of the 12 products containing Hg, 10 also contained HQ and/or a steroid, yet none listed Hg as an ingredient. A significant proportion of the steroid-containing products (76.9%) also contained at least one other skin-lightening agent. Not all internationally available products were tested, which is a limitation of the study. CONCLUSION: In spite of a European Union ban on skin lighteners, a third of the products tested were from Europe. Combinations of Hg and ultrapotent steroids were prominent. International law enforcement and random testing is needed to encourage industry compliance and help protect consumers.

The expression of selected genes linked to metabolic homeostasis in obese pansteatitis-suffering Mozambique tilapia, Oreochromis mossambicus (Peters).

The Oreochromis mossambicus (Peters) population inhabiting Lake Loskop, South Africa, is characterized by a high incidence of obesity and pansteatitis. We investigated potential links between the impaired health of Lake Loskop O. mossambicus and the endocrine system by assessing the expression of selected genes associated with the thyroid and adrenal endocrine axes as well as peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor gamma (pparg). Moreover, contaminant-induced thyroid and/or metabolic modulation in Lake Loskop water was evaluated using juvenile O. mossambicus in laboratory exposures. The expression of thyroid hormone receptor alpha (thra) and type 2 deiodinase (dio2) was higher in Lake Loskop O. mossambicus than fish from another population, suggesting a degree of thyroid disruption. The altered gene expression may be a consequence, rather than cause of obesity. Expression of dio2 and pparg was higher in juvenile O. mossambicus exposed to unfiltered compared to filtered lake water, and our data suggest fasting as causative factor. Micro-organism abundance can therefore be a confounding factor in studies applying molecular markers to test for thyroid modulation by environmental waters. Pansteatitis was not a significant source of variance in the expression of any of the genes investigated, suggesting that the disease is not associated with disrupted endocrine signalling.

World Association for the Advancement of Veterinary Parasitology (W.A.A.V.P.): Third edition of the guideline for evaluating efficacy of anthelmintics in ruminants (bovine, ovine, caprine).

This guideline is aimed at those who are involved in the assessment of anthelmintic efficacy in ruminant livestock species (bovine, ovine and caprine). The intent is to provide a framework that can be adopted worldwide for the testing of anthelmintics in ruminants, such that studies carried out in different countries can be compared and thereby unnecessary duplication can be reduced. Recommendations are made for the selection, housing and feeding of study animals, the type of studies required, the method used to conduct those studies, the assessment of results and the standards for defining anthelmintic efficacy.

University and stakeholder partnerships to innovate in sport - the development of the South African Cricketers' Association (SACA) career transition screening tool.

In sports, the value and mutual benefit of university-stakeholder partnerships have been well-recognised. It has been argued that cricket has a unique set of challenges compared to other team sports. In 2016, the South African Cricketers' Association (SACA) and the University of Cape Town established a partnership to (i) conduct novel research on professional cricketers and (ii) ensure SACA programmes and initiatives are informed by said research and/or the currently available literature. As the demand on professional cricketers has increased, so has the interest in their career transitioning. That is, how do professional cricketers manage stressors created by changes (or non-changes) throughout their playing careers? To help identify gaps for intervention as a cricketer transitions through their professional career, the purpose of this short report is to describe how a university-stakeholder partnership developed a career transitioning screening tool for professional cricketers in South Africa.

Career intentions of medical students trained in six sub-Saharan African countries.

INTRODUCTION: Sub-Saharan Africa(SSA) is the world region worst affected by physician migration. Identifying reasons why medical students wish to stay or leave Africa could assist in developing strategies which favour retention of these graduates. This study investigated the career intentions of graduating students attending medical schools in SSA to identify interventions which may improve retention of African physicians in their country of training or origin. METHODS: Final year medical students attending nine medical schools in SSA were surveyed--students from four schools in South Africa and one school each in the Democratic Republic of Congo, Kenya, Nigeria, Tanzania and Uganda. The response rate was 78.5% (990 of 1260 students); data from the 984 students who indicated they were remaining in medicine were entered into a database, and descriptive statistics were obtained. RESULTS: Most (97.4%) of the 984 responding students were African by birth. The majority (91.2%) intended to undertake postgraduate training; the top three specialty choices were surgery (20%), internal medicine (16.7%), and paediatrics (9%). Few were interested in family medicine (4.5%) or public health (2.6%) or intended to practice in rural areas (4.8%). Many students (40%) planned to train abroad. About one fifth (21%) intended to relocate outside sub-Saharan Africa. These were about equally divided between South Africans (48%) and those from the other five countries (52%). The top perceived career-related factors favouring retention in Africa were career options and quality and availability of training opportunities. Several factors were reported significantly more by South African than the other students. The top personal factors for staying in Africa were a desire to improve medicine in Africa, personal safety, social conditions and family issues. The top career-related factors favouring relocation outside Africa were remuneration, access to equipment and advanced technology, career and training opportunities, regulated work environment and politics of health care in Africa. Several of these were reported significantly more by students from the other countries as compared with South Africans. The top personal factors favouring relocation outside Africa were personal safety, opportunity for experience in a different environment, social conditions and greater personal freedom. DISCUSSION: The career intentions of African medical students are not aligned with the continent's health workforce needs. A number of interventions that warrant further attention were identified in this study.

A survey of the prevalence of blowfly strike and the control measures used in the Rûens area of the Western Cape Province of South Africa.

Blowfly strike and the methods used to combat blowfly strike were recorded on 33 properties in the Rûens area of South Africa during 2003/2004. Data were recorded on Merino and Dohne Merino hoggets (n = 4951) with at least 3 months' wool growth. The following data were captured: presence or absence of strike, site of the strike (body or breech), presence or absence of dermatophilosis as well as subjective scores for wool quality and wool colour. Control measures recorded include: chemical treatment (preventative and spot treatment), crutching, mulesing and the use of the Lucitrap system. Blowfly strike was not significantly influenced by gender or breed. Hoggets suffering from dermatophilosis were more likely to be struck, compared with contemporaries not suffering from the skin disorder (0.057 vs 0.027; P < 0.05). Merino hoggets generally had higher scores than their Dohne Merino contemporaries for wool quality (32.6 vs 27.4; P < 0.05) and wool colour (29.0 vs 27.2; P < 0.05). There was an indication that the Lucitrap system may have reduced flystrike, but the effect was not statistically significant (P = 0.19 for overall strikes and P = 0.12 for body strike). The Mules operation benefited overall flystrike (0.013 vs 0.110; P < 0.05); mainly through an effect on breech strike (0.010 vs 0.109; P < 0.05). The proportion of fly strikes increased with wool length, and declined with an increase in farm size in wool colour score. None of the ethically acceptable control measures assessed could substantially reduce blowfly strike on their own, and an integrated pest management programme was proposed.

Anxiety and depression in athletes assessed using the 12-item General Health Questionnaire (GHQ-12) - a systematic scoping review.

Background: The poor mental health of athletes is a major concern in sport. Typically, the incidence/prevalence of mental health symptoms in athletes is studied using symptom-specific questionnaires. For symptoms of depression/anxiety, one such self-reporting questionnaire is the 12-item General Health Questionnaire (GHQ-12). Objectives: The aim of this review was to synthesise and compare studies using the GHQ-12 in athletes to inform future research bodies by identifying trends and gaps in the literature. Methods: A systematic search of five electronic databases (Google Scholar, PubMed, PsychINFO, Scopus and Web of Science) was conducted on all published studies up to 1 January 2019. Inclusion criteria: (1) participants were able-bodied athletes; (2) studies measured anxiety/depression using the GHQ-12; (3) studies were full original articles from peer-reviewed journals; (4) studies were published in English. Results: Thirty-two studies were included in the review. The prevalence and incidence of symptoms of anxiety/depression ranged from 21-48% and 17-57%, respectively. The majority of studies screening anxiety/depression using the GHQ-12 were cross-sectional. Almost 70% of the studies used the traditional scoring method. The majority of study populations sampled all-male cohorts comprising football (soccer) players. Conclusion: The traditional scoring of 0-0-1-1 should be used with the cut-off set at ≥3. Also, the mean GHQ-12 score should be reported. Potential risk factors for symptoms of anxiety/depression (i.e. recent adverse life events, injury and illness, social support, pressure to perform and career transitioning) and a lack of prospective studies were identified. Future research should also broaden the spectrum of athlete populations used and aim to improve response rates.

Predictors of 1-year survival in South African transcatheter aortic valve implant candidates.

BACKGROUND: Transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI) has undergone rapid expansion internationally over the past 15 years. In view of resource constraints in developing countries, a major challenge in applying this technology lies in identifying patients most likely to benefit. The development of a risk prediction model for TAVI has proved elusive, with a reported area under the curve (AUC) of 0.6 - 0.65. The available models were developed in a First-World setting and may not be applicable to South Africa (SA). OBJECTIVES: To evaluate novel indicators and to develop a TAVI risk prediction model unique to the SA context. The current work represents the important initial steps of derivation cohort risk model development and internal validation. METHODS: Seven-year experience with 244 successive TAVI implants in three centres in Western Cape Province, SA, was used to derive risk parameters. All outcomes are reported in accordance with the Valve Academic Research Consortium definitions. Multiple preprocedural variables were assessed for their impact on 1-year survival using univariate and multivariate models. RESULTS: Factors found not to correlate with 1-year survival included age, renal function and aortic valve gradients. The commonly used surgical risk prediction models (Society of Thoracic Surgeons score and EuroSCORE) showed no correlation with outcomes. Factors found to correlate best with 1-year survival on multivariate analysis were preprocedural body mass index (BMI) (favouring higher BMI), preprocedural left ventricular end-diastolic dimension (LVED) and ejection fraction (EF) (favouring smaller LVED and higher EF), absence of atrial fibrillation, and three novel parameters: independent living, ability to drive a car, and independent food acquisition/cooking. Discriminant analysis of these factors yielded an AUC of 0.8 (95% confidence interval 0.7 - 0.9) to predict 1-year survival, with resubstitution sensitivities and specificities of 72% and 71%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Apart from existing predictors, we identified three novel risk predictors (independent living, ability to drive a car, and independent food acquisition/cooking) for 1-year survival in TAVI candidates. These novel parameters performed well in this early evaluation, with an AUC for predicting 1-year survival higher than the AUCs for many of the internationally derived parameters. The parameters are inexpensive and easy to obtain at the initial patient visit. If validated prospectively in external cohorts, they may be applicable to other resource-constrained environments.