Insights from an autism imaging biomarker challenge: Promises and threats to biomarker discovery.

MRI has been extensively used to identify anatomical and functional differences in Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD). Yet, many of these findings have proven difficult to replicate because studies rely on small cohorts and are built on many complex, undisclosed, analytic choices. We conducted an international challenge to predict ASD diagnosis from MRI data, where we provided preprocessed anatomical and functional MRI data from > 2,000 individuals. Evaluation of the predictions was rigorously blinded. 146 challengers submitted prediction algorithms, which were evaluated at the end of the challenge using unseen data and an additional acquisition site. On the best algorithms, we studied the importance of MRI modalities, brain regions, and sample size. We found evidence that MRI could predict ASD diagnosis: the 10 best algorithms reliably predicted diagnosis with AUC∼0.80 - far superior to what can be currently obtained using genotyping data in cohorts 20-times larger. We observed that functional MRI was more important for prediction than anatomical MRI, and that increasing sample size steadily increased prediction accuracy, providing an efficient strategy to improve biomarkers. We also observed that despite a strong incentive to generalise to unseen data, model development on a given dataset faces the risk of overfitting: performing well in cross-validation on the data at hand, but not generalising. Finally, we were able to predict ASD diagnosis on an external sample added after the end of the challenge (EU-AIMS), although with a lower prediction accuracy (AUC=0.72). This indicates that despite being based on a large multisite cohort, our challenge still produced biomarkers fragile in the face of dataset shifts.

Body-weight variability and risk of cardiovascular outcomes in patients with type 1 diabetes: a retrospective observational analysis of data from the DCCT/EDIC population.

BACKGROUND: Cardiovascular risk and body-weight management are both emerging challenges of type 1 diabetes care. We evaluated the association between intraindividual variability of body-weight and risk of cardiovascular events in people with type 1 diabetes. METHODS: We analyzed 1,398 participants from the DCCT/EDIC studies. Five indices of intraindividual variability of body-weight were calculated for each participant taking into account body-weight measures obtained during the DCCT follow-up (average 6 ± 2 years). The Average Successive Variability (ASV) index, the main variable of interest, was defined as the average absolute difference between successive body-weight measures. The primary outcome was a composite of major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE: nonfatal myocardial infarction or stroke, or cardiovascular death) occurring during the subsequent EDIC follow-up (20 ± 3 years). All-cause death was a secondary outcome. Risk of outcomes were assessed by Cox proportional hazards regression analyses, adjusted for traditional cardiovascular risks factors, including BMI. RESULTS: The cumulative incidence of MACE and all-cause death during follow-up were 5.6% (n = 79) and 6.8% (n = 95), respectively. The adjusted Hazard Ratio (HR) for MACE by every increase of 1 standard deviation (SD) of ASV was 1.34 (95% CI, 1.06-1.66), p = 0.01. For all-cause death, the adjusted HR for 1 SD increase of ASV was 1.25 (1.03-1.50), p = 0.03. Similar results were observed when considering the other indices of intraindividual variability of body-weight. CONCLUSIONS: High body-weight variability (body-weight cycling) is associated with increased risk of MACE and all-cause death in people with type 1 diabetes, independently of the BMI and traditional cardiovascular risk factors.

Extracting representations of cognition across neuroimaging studies improves brain decoding.

Cognitive brain imaging is accumulating datasets about the neural substrate of many different mental processes. Yet, most studies are based on few subjects and have low statistical power. Analyzing data across studies could bring more statistical power; yet the current brain-imaging analytic framework cannot be used at scale as it requires casting all cognitive tasks in a unified theoretical framework. We introduce a new methodology to analyze brain responses across tasks without a joint model of the psychological processes. The method boosts statistical power in small studies with specific cognitive focus by analyzing them jointly with large studies that probe less focal mental processes. Our approach improves decoding performance for 80% of 35 widely-different functional-imaging studies. It finds commonalities across tasks in a data-driven way, via common brain representations that predict mental processes. These are brain networks tuned to psychological manipulations. They outline interpretable and plausible brain structures. The extracted networks have been made available; they can be readily reused in new neuro-imaging studies. We provide a multi-study decoding tool to adapt to new data.

Decoding with confidence: Statistical control on decoder maps.

In brain imaging, decoding is widely used to infer relationships between brain and cognition, or to craft brain-imaging biomarkers of pathologies. Yet, standard decoding procedures do not come with statistical guarantees, and thus do not give confidence bounds to interpret the pattern maps that they produce. Indeed, in whole-brain decoding settings, the number of explanatory variables is much greater than the number of samples, hence classical statistical inference methodology cannot be applied. Specifically, the standard practice that consists in thresholding decoding maps is not a correct inference procedure. We contribute a new statistical-testing framework for this type of inference. To overcome the statistical inefficiency of voxel-level control, we generalize the Family Wise Error Rate (FWER) to account for a spatial tolerance δ, introducing the δ-Family Wise Error Rate (δ-FWER). Then, we present a decoding procedure that can control the δ-FWER: the Ensemble of Clustered Desparsified Lasso (EnCluDL), a procedure for multivariate statistical inference on high-dimensional structured data. We evaluate the statistical properties of EnCluDL with a thorough empirical study, along with three alternative procedures including decoder map thresholding. We show that EnCluDL exhibits the best recovery properties while ensuring the expected statistical control.

Subject-specific segregation of functional territories based on deep phenotyping.

Functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) has opened the possibility to investigate how brain activity is modulated by behavior. Most studies so far are bound to one single task, in which functional responses to a handful of contrasts are analyzed and reported as a group average brain map. Contrariwise, recent data-collection efforts have started to target a systematic spatial representation of multiple mental functions. In this paper, we leverage the Individual Brain Charting (IBC) dataset-a high-resolution task-fMRI dataset acquired in a fixed environment-in order to study the feasibility of individual mapping. First, we verify that the IBC brain maps reproduce those obtained from previous, large-scale datasets using the same tasks. Second, we confirm that the elementary spatial components, inferred across all tasks, are consistently mapped within and, to a lesser extent, across participants. Third, we demonstrate the relevance of the topographic information of the individual contrast maps, showing that contrasts from one task can be predicted by contrasts from other tasks. At last, we showcase the benefit of contrast accumulation for the fine functional characterization of brain regions within a prespecified network. To this end, we analyze the cognitive profile of functional territories pertaining to the language network and prove that these profiles generalize across participants.

Subspecialization within default mode nodes characterized in 10,000 UK Biobank participants.

The human default mode network (DMN) is implicated in several unique mental capacities. In this study, we tested whether brain-wide interregional communication in the DMN can be derived from population variability in intrinsic activity fluctuations, gray-matter morphology, and fiber tract anatomy. In a sample of 10,000 UK Biobank participants, pattern-learning algorithms revealed functional coupling states in the DMN that are linked to connectivity profiles between other macroscopical brain networks. In addition, DMN gray matter volume was covaried with white matter microstructure of the fornix. Collectively, functional and structural patterns unmasked a possible division of labor within major DMN nodes: Subregions most critical for cortical network interplay were adjacent to subregions most predictive of fornix fibers from the hippocampus that processes memories and places.

Predictive regression modeling with MEG/EEG: from source power to signals and cognitive states.

Predicting biomedical outcomes from Magnetoencephalography and Electroencephalography (M/EEG) is central to applications like decoding, brain-computer-interfaces (BCI) or biomarker development and is facilitated by supervised machine learning. Yet, most of the literature is concerned with classification of outcomes defined at the event-level. Here, we focus on predicting continuous outcomes from M/EEG signal defined at the subject-level, and analyze about 600 MEG recordings from Cam-CAN dataset and about 1000 EEG recordings from TUH dataset. Considering different generative mechanisms for M/EEG signals and the biomedical outcome, we propose statistically-consistent predictive models that avoid source-reconstruction based on the covariance as representation. Our mathematical analysis and ground-truth simulations demonstrated that consistent function approximation can be obtained with supervised spatial filtering or by embedding with Riemannian geometry. Additional simulations revealed that Riemannian methods were more robust to model violations, in particular geometric distortions induced by individual anatomy. To estimate the relative contribution of brain dynamics and anatomy to prediction performance, we propose a novel model inspection procedure based on biophysical forward modeling. Applied to prediction of outcomes at the subject-level, the analysis revealed that the Riemannian model better exploited anatomical information while sensitivity to brain dynamics was similar across methods. We then probed the robustness of the models across different data cleaning options. Environmental denoising was globally important but Riemannian models were strikingly robust and continued performing well even without preprocessing. Our results suggest each method has its niche: supervised spatial filtering is practical for event-level prediction while the Riemannian model may enable simple end-to-end learning.

Fine-grain atlases of functional modes for fMRI analysis.

Population imaging markedly increased the size of functional-imaging datasets, shedding new light on the neural basis of inter-individual differences. Analyzing these large data entails new scalability challenges, computational and statistical. For this reason, brain images are typically summarized in a few signals, for instance reducing voxel-level measures with brain atlases or functional modes. A good choice of the corresponding brain networks is important, as most data analyses start from these reduced signals. We contribute finely-resolved atlases of functional modes, comprising from 64 to 1024 networks. These dictionaries of functional modes (DiFuMo) are trained on millions of fMRI functional brain volumes of total size 2.4 â€‹TB, spanned over 27 studies and many research groups. We demonstrate the benefits of extracting reduced signals on our fine-grain atlases for many classic functional data analysis pipelines: stimuli decoding from 12,334 brain responses, standard GLM analysis of fMRI across sessions and individuals, extraction of resting-state functional-connectomes biomarkers for 2500 individuals, data compression and meta-analysis over more than 15,000 statistical maps. In each of these analysis scenarii, we compare the performance of our functional atlases with that of other popular references, and to a simple voxel-level analysis. Results highlight the importance of using high-dimensional "soft" functional atlases, to represent and analyze brain activity while capturing its functional gradients. Analyses on high-dimensional modes achieve similar statistical performance as at the voxel level, but with much reduced computational cost and higher interpretability. In addition to making them available, we provide meaningful names for these modes, based on their anatomical location. It will facilitate reporting of results.

Benchmarking functional connectome-based predictive models for resting-state fMRI.

Functional connectomes reveal biomarkers of individual psychological or clinical traits. However, there is great variability in the analytic pipelines typically used to derive them from rest-fMRI cohorts. Here, we consider a specific type of studies, using predictive models on the edge weights of functional connectomes, for which we highlight the best modeling choices. We systematically study the prediction performances of models in 6 different cohorts and a total of 2000 individuals, encompassing neuro-degenerative (Alzheimer's, Post-traumatic stress disorder), neuro-psychiatric (Schizophrenia, Autism), drug impact (Cannabis use) clinical settings and psychological trait (fluid intelligence). The typical prediction procedure from rest-fMRI consists of three main steps: defining brain regions, representing the interactions, and supervised learning. For each step we benchmark typical choices: 8 different ways of defining regions -either pre-defined or generated from the rest-fMRI data- 3 measures to build functional connectomes from the extracted time-series, and 10 classification models to compare functional interactions across subjects. Our benchmarks summarize more than 240 different pipelines and outline modeling choices that show consistent prediction performances in spite of variations in the populations and sites. We find that regions defined from functional data work best; that it is beneficial to capture between-region interactions with tangent-based parametrization of covariances, a midway between correlations and partial correlation; and that simple linear predictors such as a logistic regression give the best predictions. Our work is a step forward to establishing reproducible imaging-based biomarkers for clinical settings.

Brain-based ranking of cognitive domains to predict schizophrenia.

Schizophrenia is a devastating brain disorder that disturbs sensory perception, motor action, and abstract thought. Its clinical phenotype implies dysfunction of various mental domains, which has motivated a series of theories regarding the underlying pathophysiology. Aiming at a predictive benchmark of a catalog of cognitive functions, we developed a data-driven machine-learning strategy and provide a proof of principle in a multisite clinical dataset (n = 324). Existing neuroscientific knowledge on diverse cognitive domains was first condensed into neurotopographical maps. We then examined how the ensuing meta-analytic cognitive priors can distinguish patients and controls using brain morphology and intrinsic functional connectivity. Some affected cognitive domains supported well-studied directions of research on auditory evaluation and social cognition. However, rarely suspected cognitive domains also emerged as disease relevant, including self-oriented processing of bodily sensations in gustation and pain. Such algorithmic charting of the cognitive landscape can be used to make targeted recommendations for future mental health research.

Atlases of cognition with large-scale human brain mapping.

To map the neural substrate of mental function, cognitive neuroimaging relies on controlled psychological manipulations that engage brain systems associated with specific cognitive processes. In order to build comprehensive atlases of cognitive function in the brain, it must assemble maps for many different cognitive processes, which often evoke overlapping patterns of activation. Such data aggregation faces contrasting goals: on the one hand finding correspondences across vastly different cognitive experiments, while on the other hand precisely describing the function of any given brain region. Here we introduce a new analysis framework that tackles these difficulties and thereby enables the generation of brain atlases for cognitive function. The approach leverages ontologies of cognitive concepts and multi-label brain decoding to map the neural substrate of these concepts. We demonstrate the approach by building an atlas of functional brain organization based on 30 diverse functional neuroimaging studies, totaling 196 different experimental conditions. Unlike conventional brain mapping, this functional atlas supports robust reverse inference: predicting the mental processes from brain activity in the regions delineated by the atlas. To establish that this reverse inference is indeed governed by the corresponding concepts, and not idiosyncrasies of experimental designs, we show that it can accurately decode the cognitive concepts recruited in new tasks. These results demonstrate that aggregating independent task-fMRI studies can provide a more precise global atlas of selective associations between brain and cognition.

Cross-validation failure: Small sample sizes lead to large error bars.

Predictive models ground many state-of-the-art developments in statistical brain image analysis: decoding, MVPA, searchlight, or extraction of biomarkers. The principled approach to establish their validity and usefulness is cross-validation, testing prediction on unseen data. Here, I would like to raise awareness on error bars of cross-validation, which are often underestimated. Simple experiments show that sample sizes of many neuroimaging studies inherently lead to large error bars, eg±10% for 100 samples. The standard error across folds strongly underestimates them. These large error bars compromise the reliability of conclusions drawn with predictive models, such as biomarkers or methods developments where, unlike with cognitive neuroimaging MVPA approaches, more samples cannot be acquired by repeating the experiment across many subjects. Solutions to increase sample size must be investigated, tackling possible increases in heterogeneity of the data.

Decoding fMRI activity in the time domain improves classification performance.

Most current functional Magnetic Resonance Imaging (fMRI) decoding analyses rely on statistical summaries of the data resulting from a deconvolution approach: each stimulation event is associated with a brain response. This standard approach leads to simple learning procedures, yet it is ill-suited for decoding events with short inter-stimulus intervals. In order to overcome this issue, we propose a novel framework that separates the spatial and temporal components of the prediction by decoding the fMRI time-series continuously, i.e. scan-by-scan. The stimulation events can then be identified through a deconvolution of the reconstructed time series. We show that this model performs as well as or better than standard approaches across several datasets, most notably in regimes with small inter-stimuli intervals (3-5s), while also offering predictions that are highly interpretable in the time domain. This opens the way toward analyzing datasets not normally thought of as suitable for decoding and makes it possible to run decoding on studies with reduced scan time.

FReM - Scalable and stable decoding with fast regularized ensemble of models.

Brain decoding relates behavior to brain activity through predictive models. These are also used to identify brain regions involved in the cognitive operations related to the observed behavior. Training such multivariate models is a high-dimensional statistical problem that calls for suitable priors. State of the art priors -eg small total-variation- enforce spatial structure on the maps to stabilize them and improve prediction. However, they come with a hefty computational cost. We build upon very fast dimension reduction with spatial structure and model ensembling to achieve decoders that are fast on large datasets and increase the stability of the predictions and the maps. Our approach, fast regularized ensemble of models (FReM), includes an implicit spatial regularization by using a voxel grouping with a fast clustering algorithm. In addition, it aggregates different estimators obtained across splits of a cross-validation loop, each time keeping the best possible model. Experiments on a large number of brain imaging datasets show that our combination of voxel clustering and model ensembling improves decoding maps stability and reduces the variance of prediction accuracy. Importantly, our method requires less samples than state-of-the-art methods to achieve a given level of prediction accuracy. Finally, FreM is much faster than other spatially-regularized methods and, in addition, it can better exploit parallel computing resources.

Different shades of default mode disturbance in schizophrenia: Subnodal covariance estimation in structure and function.

Schizophrenia is a devastating mental disease with an apparent disruption in the highly associative default mode network (DMN). Interplay between this canonical network and others probably contributes to goal-directed behavior so its disturbance is a candidate neural fingerprint underlying schizophrenia psychopathology. Previous research has reported both hyperconnectivity and hypoconnectivity within the DMN, and both increased and decreased DMN coupling with the multimodal saliency network (SN) and dorsal attention network (DAN). This study systematically revisited network disruption in patients with schizophrenia using data-derived network atlases and multivariate pattern-learning algorithms in a multisite dataset (n = 325). Resting-state fluctuations in unconstrained brain states were used to estimate functional connectivity, and local volume differences between individuals were used to estimate structural co-occurrence within and between the DMN, SN, and DAN. In brain structure and function, sparse inverse covariance estimates of network coupling were used to characterize healthy participants and patients with schizophrenia, and to identify statistically significant group differences. Evidence did not confirm that the backbone of the DMN was the primary driver of brain dysfunction in schizophrenia. Instead, functional and structural aberrations were frequently located outside of the DMN core, such as in the anterior temporoparietal junction and precuneus. Additionally, functional covariation analyses highlighted dysfunctional DMN-DAN coupling, while structural covariation results highlighted aberrant DMN-SN coupling. Our findings reframe the role of the DMN core and its relation to canonical networks in schizophrenia. We thus underline the importance of large-scale neural interactions as effective biomarkers and indicators of how to tailor psychiatric care to single patients.

BIDS apps: Improving ease of use, accessibility, and reproducibility of neuroimaging data analysis methods.

The rate of progress in human neurosciences is limited by the inability to easily apply a wide range of analysis methods to the plethora of different datasets acquired in labs around the world. In this work, we introduce a framework for creating, testing, versioning and archiving portable applications for analyzing neuroimaging data organized and described in compliance with the Brain Imaging Data Structure (BIDS). The portability of these applications (BIDS Apps) is achieved by using container technologies that encapsulate all binary and other dependencies in one convenient package. BIDS Apps run on all three major operating systems with no need for complex setup and configuration and thanks to the comprehensiveness of the BIDS standard they require little manual user input. Previous containerized data processing solutions were limited to single user environments and not compatible with most multi-tenant High Performance Computing systems. BIDS Apps overcome this limitation by taking advantage of the Singularity container technology. As a proof of concept, this work is accompanied by 22 ready to use BIDS Apps, packaging a diverse set of commonly used neuroimaging algorithms.

Joint prediction of multiple scores captures better individual traits from brain images.

To probe individual variations in brain organization, population imaging relates features of brain images to rich descriptions of the subjects such as genetic information or behavioral and clinical assessments. Capturing common trends across these measurements is important: they jointly characterize the disease status of patient groups. In particular, mapping imaging features to behavioral scores with predictive models opens the way toward more precise diagnosis. Here we propose to jointly predict all the dimensions (behavioral scores) that make up the individual profiles, using so-called multi-output models. This approach often boosts prediction accuracy by capturing latent shared information across scores. We demonstrate the efficiency of multi-output models on two independent resting-state fMRI datasets targeting different brain disorders (Alzheimer's Disease and schizophrenia). Furthermore, the model with joint prediction generalizes much better to a new cohort: a model learned on one study is more accurately transferred to an independent one. Finally, we show how multi-output models can easily be extended to multi-modal settings, combining heterogeneous data sources for a better overall accuracy.

Seeing it all: Convolutional network layers map the function of the human visual system.

Convolutional networks used for computer vision represent candidate models for the computations performed in mammalian visual systems. We use them as a detailed model of human brain activity during the viewing of natural images by constructing predictive models based on their different layers and BOLD fMRI activations. Analyzing the predictive performance across layers yields characteristic fingerprints for each visual brain region: early visual areas are better described by lower level convolutional net layers and later visual areas by higher level net layers, exhibiting a progression across ventral and dorsal streams. Our predictive model generalizes beyond brain responses to natural images. We illustrate this on two experiments, namely retinotopy and face-place oppositions, by synthesizing brain activity and performing classical brain mapping upon it. The synthesis recovers the activations observed in the corresponding fMRI studies, showing that this deep encoding model captures representations of brain function that are universal across experimental paradigms.

Assessing and tuning brain decoders: Cross-validation, caveats, and guidelines.

Decoding, i.e. prediction from brain images or signals, calls for empirical evaluation of its predictive power. Such evaluation is achieved via cross-validation, a method also used to tune decoders' hyper-parameters. This paper is a review on cross-validation procedures for decoding in neuroimaging. It includes a didactic overview of the relevant theoretical considerations. Practical aspects are highlighted with an extensive empirical study of the common decoders in within- and across-subject predictions, on multiple datasets -anatomical and functional MRI and MEG- and simulations. Theory and experiments outline that the popular "leave-one-out" strategy leads to unstable and biased estimates, and a repeated random splits method should be preferred. Experiments outline the large error bars of cross-validation in neuroimaging settings: typical confidence intervals of 10%. Nested cross-validation can tune decoders' parameters while avoiding circularity bias. However we find that it can be favorable to use sane defaults, in particular for non-sparse decoders.

Deriving reproducible biomarkers from multi-site resting-state data: An Autism-based example.

Resting-state functional Magnetic Resonance Imaging (R-fMRI) holds the promise to reveal functional biomarkers of neuropsychiatric disorders. However, extracting such biomarkers is challenging for complex multi-faceted neuropathologies, such as autism spectrum disorders. Large multi-site datasets increase sample sizes to compensate for this complexity, at the cost of uncontrolled heterogeneity. This heterogeneity raises new challenges, akin to those face in realistic diagnostic applications. Here, we demonstrate the feasibility of inter-site classification of neuropsychiatric status, with an application to the Autism Brain Imaging Data Exchange (ABIDE) database, a large (N=871) multi-site autism dataset. For this purpose, we investigate pipelines that extract the most predictive biomarkers from the data. These R-fMRI pipelines build participant-specific connectomes from functionally-defined brain areas. Connectomes are then compared across participants to learn patterns of connectivity that differentiate typical controls from individuals with autism. We predict this neuropsychiatric status for participants from the same acquisition sites or different, unseen, ones. Good choices of methods for the various steps of the pipeline lead to 67% prediction accuracy on the full ABIDE data, which is significantly better than previously reported results. We perform extensive validation on multiple subsets of the data defined by different inclusion criteria. These enables detailed analysis of the factors contributing to successful connectome-based prediction. First, prediction accuracy improves as we include more subjects, up to the maximum amount of subjects available. Second, the definition of functional brain areas is of paramount importance for biomarker discovery: brain areas extracted from large R-fMRI datasets outperform reference atlases in the classification tasks.