Exploring financially sustainable initiatives to address out-of-area placements in psychiatric ICUs: a computer simulation study.

BACKGROUND: Transferring individuals for treatment outside their geographic area occurs when healthcare demand exceeds local supply. This can result in significant financial cost while impacting patient outcomes and experience. AIMS: The aim of this study was to assess initiatives to reduce psychiatric intensive care unit (PICU) out-of-area bed placements within a major healthcare system in South West England. METHODS: Discrete event computer simulation was used to model patient flow across the healthcare system's three PICUs. A scenario analysis was performed to estimate the impact of management plans to decrease admissions and length of stay. The amount of capacity required to minimise total cost was also considered. RESULTS: Without increasing in-area capacity, mean out-of-area bed requirement can be reduced by 25.6% and 19.1% respectively through plausible initiatives to decrease admissions and length of stay. Reductions of 34.7% are possible if both initiatives are employed. Adjusting the in-area bed capacity can also lead to aggregate cost savings. CONCLUSIONS: This study supports the likely effectiveness of particular initiatives in reducing out-of-area placements for high-acuity bedded psychiatric care. This study also demonstrates the value of computer simulation in an area that has seen little such attention to date.

Optimising acute stroke pathways through flexible use of bed capacity: a computer modelling study.

BACKGROUND: Optimising capacity along clinical pathways is essential to avoid severe hospital pressure and help ensure best patient outcomes and financial sustainability. Yet, typical approaches, using only average arrival rate and average lengths of stay, are known to underestimate the number of beds required. This study investigates the extent to which averages-based estimates can be complemented by a robust assessment of additional 'flex capacity' requirements, to be used at times of peak demand. METHODS: The setting was a major one million resident healthcare system in England, moving towards a centralised stroke pathway. A computer simulation was developed for modelling patient flow along the proposed stroke pathway, accounting for variability in patient arrivals, lengths of stay, and the time taken for transfer processes. The primary outcome measure was flex capacity utilisation over the simulation period. RESULTS: For the hyper-acute, acute, and rehabilitation units respectively, flex capacities of 45%, 45%, and 36% above the averages-based calculation would be required to ensure that only 1% of stroke presentations find the hyper-acute unit full and have to wait. For each unit some amount of flex capacity would be required approximately 30%, 20%, and 18% of the time respectively. CONCLUSIONS: This study demonstrates the importance of appropriately capturing variability within capacity plans, and provides a practical and economical approach which can complement commonly-used averages-based methods. Results of this study have directly informed the healthcare system's new configuration of stroke services.

Population-level management of type 1 diabetes via continuous glucose monitoring and algorithm-enabled patient prioritization: Precision health meets population health.

OBJECTIVE: To develop and scale algorithm-enabled patient prioritization to improve population-level management of type 1 diabetes (T1D) in a pediatric clinic with fixed resources, using telemedicine and remote monitoring of patients via continuous glucose monitor (CGM) data review. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: We adapted consensus glucose targets for T1D patients using CGM to identify interpretable clinical criteria to prioritize patients for weekly provider review. The criteria were constructed to manage the number of patients reviewed weekly and identify patients who most needed provider contact. We developed an interactive dashboard to display CGM data relevant for the patients prioritized for review. RESULTS: The introduction of the new criteria and interactive dashboard was associated with a 60% reduction in the mean time spent by diabetes team members who remotely and asynchronously reviewed patient data and contacted patients, from 3.2 ± 0.20 to 1.3 ± 0.24 min per patient per week. Given fixed resources for review, this corresponded to an estimated 147% increase in weekly clinic capacity. Patients who qualified for and received remote review (n = 58) have associated 8.8 percentage points (pp) (95% CI = 0.6-16.9 pp) greater time-in-range (70-180 mg/dl) glucoses compared to 25 control patients who did not qualify at 12 months after T1D onset. CONCLUSIONS: An algorithm-enabled prioritization of T1D patients with CGM for asynchronous remote review reduced provider time spent per patient and was associated with improved time-in-range.

Setting up a rapid diagnostic clinic for patients with vague symptoms of cancer: a mixed method process evaluation study.

BACKGROUND: The study sought to evaluate the impact of a Rapid Diagnostic Clinic (RDC) service designed to improve general practitioner (GP) referral processes for patients who do not meet existing referral criteria yet present with vague - but potentially concerning - symptoms of cancer. We sought to investigate how well the RDC has performed in the views of local GPs and patients, and through analysis of its activity and performance in the first two years of operation. METHODS: The study setting was a single, hospital-based RDC clinic in a University Health Board in South Wales. We used a mixed-method process evaluation study, including routinely collected activity and diagnosis data. All GPs were invited to participate in an online survey (34/165 responded), and a smaller group (n = 8) were interviewed individually. Two focus groups with patients and their carers (n = 7) provided in-depth personal accounts of their experiences. RESULTS: The focus groups revealed high rates of patient satisfaction with the RDC. GPs were also overwhelmingly positive about the value of the RDC to their practice. There were 574 clinic attendances between July 2017 and March 2019; the mean age of attendees was 68, 57% were female, and approximately 30% had three or more vague symptoms. Of those attending, we estimated between 42 to 71 (7.3 and 12.3%) received preliminary cancer diagnoses. Median time from GP referral to RDC appointment was 12 days; from GP referral to cancer diagnosis was 34 days. Overall, 73% of RDC patients received either a new diagnosis (suspected cancer 23.2%, non-cancer 35.9%) or an onward referral to secondary care for further investigation with no new diagnosis (13.9%), and 27% were referred to primary care with no new diagnosis. CONCLUSIONS: The RDC appears to enable a good patient experience in cancer diagnosis. Patients are seen in timely fashion, and the service is highly regarded by them, their carers, and referring GPs. Although too early to draw conclusions about long-term patient outcomes, there are strong indications to suggest that this model of service provision can set higher standards for a strongly patient-centred service.

The impact of increased outpatient telehealth during COVID-19: Retrospective analysis of patient survey and routine activity data from a major healthcare system in England.

In response to societal restrictions due to the COVID-19 pandemic, a significant proportion of physical outpatient consultations were replaced with virtual appointments within the Bristol, North Somerset and South Gloucestershire healthcare system. The objective of this study was to assess the impact of this change in informing the potential viability of a longer-term shift to telehealth in the outpatient setting. A retrospective analysis was performed using data from the first COVID-19 wave, comprising 2998 telehealth patient surveys and 143,321 distinct outpatient contacts through both the physical and virtual medium. Four in five specialities showed no significant change in the overall number of consultations per patient during the first wave of the pandemic when telehealth services were widely implemented. Of those surveyed following virtual consultation, more respondents 'preferred' virtual (36.4%) than physical appointments (26.9%) with seven times as many finding them 'less stressful' than 'more stressful'. In combining both patient survey and routine activity data, this study demonstrates the importance of using data from multiple sources to derive useful insight. The results support the potential for telehealth to be rapidly employed across a range of outpatient specialities without negatively affecting patient experience.

Quantifying paediatric intensive care unit staffing levels at a paediatric academic medical centre: A mixed-methods approach.

AIM: To identify, simulate and evaluate the formal and informal patient-level and unit-level factors that nurse managers use to determine the number of nurses for each shift. BACKGROUND: Nurse staffing schedules are commonly set based on metrics such as midnight census that do not account for seasonality or midday turnover, resulting in last-minute adjustments or inappropriate staffing levels. METHODS: Staffing schedules at a paediatric intensive care unit (PICU) were simulated based on nurse-to-patient assignment rules from interviews with nursing management. Multivariate regression modelled the discrepancies between scheduled and historical staffing levels and constructed rules to reduce these discrepancies. The primary outcome was the median difference between simulated and historical staffing levels. RESULTS: Nurse-to-patient ratios underestimated staffing by a median of 1.5 nurses per shift. Multivariate regression identified patient turnover as the primary factor accounting for this difference and subgroup analysis revealed that patient age and weight were also important. New rules reduced the difference to a median of 0.07 nurses per shift. CONCLUSION: Measurable, predictable indicators of patient acuity and historical trends may allow for schedules that better match demand. IMPLICATIONS FOR NURSING MANAGEMENT: Data-driven methods can quantify what drives unit demand and generate nurse schedules that require fewer last-minute adjustments.

COVID-19 scenario modelling for the mitigation of capacity-dependent deaths in intensive care.

Managing healthcare demand and capacity is especially difficult in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic, where limited intensive care resources can be overwhelmed by a large number of cases requiring admission in a short space of time. If patients are unable to access this specialist resource, then death is a likely outcome. In appreciating these 'capacity-dependent' deaths, this paper reports on the clinically-led development of a stochastic discrete event simulation model designed to capture the key dynamics of the intensive care admissions process for COVID-19 patients. With application to a large public hospital in England during an early stage of the pandemic, the purpose of this study was to estimate the extent to which such capacity-dependent deaths can be mitigated through demand-side initiatives involving non-pharmaceutical interventions and supply-side measures to increase surge capacity. Based on information available at the time, results suggest that total capacity-dependent deaths can be reduced by 75% through a combination of increasing capacity from 45 to 100 beds, reducing length of stay by 25%, and flattening the peak demand to 26 admissions per day. Accounting for the additional 'capacity-independent' deaths, which occur even when appropriate care is available within the intensive care setting, yields an aggregate reduction in total deaths of 30%. The modelling tool, which is freely available and open source, has since been used to support COVID-19 response planning at a number of healthcare systems within the UK National Health Service.

Analysing barriers to service improvement using a multi-level theory of innovation: the case of glaucoma outpatient clinics.

The development and implementation of innovation by healthcare providers is understood as a multi-determinant and multi-level process. Theories at different analytical levels (i.e. micro and organisational) are needed to capture the processes that influence innovation by providers. This article combines a micro theory of innovation, actor-network theory, with organisational level processes using the 'resource based view of the firm'. It examines the influence of, and interplay between, innovation-seeking teams (micro) and underlying organisational capabilities (meso) during innovation processes. We used ethnographic methods to study service innovations in relation to ophthalmology services run by a specialist English NHS Trust at multiple locations. Operational research techniques were used to support the ethnographic methods by mapping the care process in the existing and redesigned clinics. Deficiencies in organisational capabilities for supporting innovation were identified, including manager-clinician relations and organisation-wide resources. The article concludes that actor-network theory can be combined with the resource-based view to highlight the influence of organisational capabilities on the management of innovation. Equally, actor-network theory helps to address the lack of theory in the resource-based view on the micro practices of implementing change.

A discrete event simulation model to evaluate the use of community services in the treatment of patients with Parkinson's disease in the United Kingdom.

BACKGROUND: The number of people affected by Parkinson's disease (PD) is increasing in the United Kingdom driven by population ageing. The treatment of the disease is complex, resource intensive and currently there is no known cure to PD. The National Health Service (NHS), the public organisation delivering healthcare in the UK, is under financial pressures. There is a need to find innovative ways to improve the operational and financial performance of treating PD patients. The use of community services is a new and promising way of providing treatment and care to PD patients at reduced cost than hospital care. The aim of this study is to evaluate the potential operational and financial benefits, which could be achieved through increased integration of community services in the delivery of treatment and care to PD patients in the UK without compromising care quality. METHODS: A Discrete Event Simulation model was developed to represent the PD care structure including patients' pathways, treatment modes, and the mix of resources required to treat PD patients. The model was parametrised with data from a large NHS Trust in the UK and validated using information from the same trust. Four possible scenarios involving increased use of community services were simulated on the model. RESULTS: Shifting more patients with PD from hospital treatment to community services will reduce the number of visits of PD patients to hospitals by about 25% and the number of PD doctors and nurses required to treat these patients by around 32%. Hospital based treatment costs overall should decrease by 26% leading to overall savings of 10% in the total cost of treating PD patients. CONCLUSIONS: The simulation model was useful in predicting the effects of increased use of community services on the performance of PD care delivery. Treatment policies need to reflect upon and formalise the use of community services and integrate these better in PD care. The advantages of community services need to be effectively shared with PD patients and carers to help inform management choices and care plans.

Data-Driven Exploration of National Health Service Talking Therapies Care Pathways Using Process Mining: Retrospective Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: The National Health Service (NHS) Talking Therapies program treats people with common mental health problems in England according to "stepped care," in which lower-intensity interventions are offered in the first instance, where clinically appropriate. Limited resources and pressure to achieve service standards mean that program providers are exploring all opportunities to evaluate and improve the flow of patients through their service. Existing research has found variation in clinical performance and stepped care implementation across sites and has identified associations between service delivery and patient outcomes. Process mining offers a data-driven approach to analyzing and evaluating health care processes and systems, enabling comparison of presumed models of service delivery and their actual implementation in practice. The value and utility of applying process mining to NHS Talking Therapies data for the analysis of care pathways have not been studied. OBJECTIVE: A better understanding of systems of service delivery will support improvements and planned program expansion. Therefore, this study aims to demonstrate the value and utility of applying process mining to NHS Talking Therapies care pathways using electronic health records. METHODS: Routine collection of a wide variety of data regarding activity and patient outcomes underpins the Talking Therapies program. In our study, anonymized individual patient referral records from two sites over a 2-year period were analyzed using process mining to visualize the care pathway process by mapping the care pathway and identifying common pathway routes. RESULTS: Process mining enabled the identification and visualization of patient flows directly from routinely collected data. These visualizations illustrated waiting periods and identified potential bottlenecks, such as the wait for higher-intensity cognitive behavioral therapy (CBT) at site 1. Furthermore, we observed that patients discharged from treatment waiting lists appeared to experience longer wait durations than those who started treatment. Process mining allowed analysis of treatment pathways, showing that patients commonly experienced treatment routes that involved either low- or high-intensity interventions alone. Of the most common routes, >5 times as many patients experienced direct access to high-intensity treatment rather than stepped care. Overall, 3.32% (site 1: 1507/45,401) and 4.19% (site 2: 527/12,590) of all patients experienced stepped care. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings demonstrate how process mining can be applied to Talking Therapies care pathways to evaluate pathway performance, explore relationships among performance issues, and highlight systemic issues, such as stepped care being relatively uncommon within a stepped care system. Integration of process mining capability into routine monitoring will enable NHS Talking Therapies service stakeholders to explore such issues from a process perspective. These insights will provide value to services by identifying areas for service improvement, providing evidence for capacity planning decisions, and facilitating better quality analysis into how health systems can affect patient outcomes.

The False Economy of Seeking to Eliminate Delayed Transfers of Care: Some Lessons from Queueing Theory.

BACKGROUND: It is a stated ambition of many healthcare systems to eliminate delayed transfers of care (DTOCs) between acute and step-down community services. OBJECTIVE: This study aims to demonstrate how, counter to intuition, pursual of such a policy is likely to be uneconomical, as it would require large amounts of community capacity to accommodate even the rarest of demand peaks, leaving much capacity unused for much of the time. METHODS: Some standard results from queueing theory-a mathematical discipline for considering the dynamics of queues and queueing systems-are used to provide a model of patient flow from the acute to community setting. While queueing models have a track record of application in healthcare, they have not before been used to address this question. RESULTS: Results show that 'eliminating' DTOCs is a false economy: the additional community costs required are greater than the possible acute cost saving. While a substantial proportion of DTOCs can be attributed to inefficient use of resources, the remainder can be considered economically essential to ensuring cost-efficient service operation. For England's National Health Service (NHS), our modelling estimates annual cost savings of £117m if DTOCs are reduced to the 12% of current levels that can be regarded as economically essential. CONCLUSION: This study discourages the use of 'zero DTOC' targets and instead supports an assessment based on the specific characteristics of the healthcare system considered.

Developing and validating a predictive model for future emergency hospital admissions.

Although many emergency hospital admissions may be unavoidable, a proportion of these admissions represent a failure of the care system. The adverse consequences of avoidable emergency hospital admissions affect patients, carers, care systems and substantially increase care costs. The aim of this study was to develop and validate a risk prediction model to estimate the individual probability of emergency admission in the next 12 months within a regional population. We deterministically linked routinely collected data from secondary care with population level data, resulting in a comprehensive research dataset of 190,466 individuals. The resulting risk prediction tool is based on a logistic regression model with five independent variables. The model indicated a discrimination of area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.9384 (95% CI 0.9325-0.9443). We also experimented with different probability cut-off points for identifying high risk patients and found the model's overall prediction accuracy to be over 95% throughout. In summary, the internally validated model we developed can predict with high accuracy the individual risk of emergency admission to hospital within the next year. Its relative simplicity makes it easily implementable within a decision support tool to assist with the management of individual patients in the community.

Optimising the balance of acute and intermediate care capacity for the complex discharge pathway: Computer modelling study during COVID-19 recovery in England.

OBJECTIVES: While there has been significant research on the pressures facing acute hospitals during the COVID-19 pandemic, there has been less interest in downstream community services which have also been challenged in meeting demand. This study aimed to estimate the theoretical cost-optimal capacity requirement for 'step down' intermediate care services within a major healthcare system in England, at a time when considerable uncertainty remained regarding vaccination uptake and the easing of societal restrictions. METHODS: Demand for intermediate care was projected using an epidemiological model (for COVID-19 demand) and regressing upon public mobility (for non-COVID-19 demand). These were inputted to a computer simulation model of patient flow from acute discharge readiness to bedded and home-based Discharge to Assess (D2A) intermediate care services. Cost-optimal capacity was defined as that which yielded the lowest total cost of intermediate care provision and corresponding acute discharge delays. RESULTS: Increased intermediate care capacity is likely to bring about lower system-level costs, with the additional D2A investment more than offset by substantial reductions in costly acute discharge delays (leading also to improved patient outcome and experience). Results suggest that completely eliminating acute 'bed blocking' is unlikely economical (requiring large amounts of downstream capacity), and that health systems should instead target an appropriate tolerance based upon the specific characteristics of the pathway. CONCLUSIONS: Computer modelling can be a valuable asset for determining optimal capacity allocation along the complex care pathway. With results supporting a Business Case for increased downstream capacity, this study demonstrates how modelling can be applied in practice and provides a blueprint for use alongside the freely-available model code.

Visualizing Opioid-Use Variation in a Pediatric Perioperative Dashboard.

BACKGROUND: Anesthesiologists integrate numerous variables to determine an opioid dose that manages patient nociception and pain while minimizing adverse effects. Clinical dashboards that enable physicians to compare themselves to their peers can reduce unnecessary variation in patient care and improve outcomes. However, due to the complexity of anesthetic dosing decisions, comparative visualizations of opioid-use patterns are complicated by case-mix differences between providers. OBJECTIVES: This single-institution case study describes the development of a pediatric anesthesia dashboard and demonstrates how advanced computational techniques can facilitate nuanced normalization techniques, enabling meaningful comparisons of complex clinical data. METHODS: We engaged perioperative-care stakeholders at a tertiary care pediatric hospital to determine patient and surgical variables relevant to anesthesia decision-making and to identify end-user requirements for an opioid-use visualization tool. Case data were extracted, aggregated, and standardized. We performed multivariable machine learning to identify and understand key variables. We integrated interview findings and computational algorithms into an interactive dashboard with normalized comparisons, followed by an iterative process of improvement and implementation. RESULTS: The dashboard design process identified two mechanisms-interactive data filtration and machine-learning-based normalization-that enable rigorous monitoring of opioid utilization with meaningful case-mix adjustment. When deployed with real data encompassing 24,332 surgical cases, our dashboard identified both high and low opioid-use outliers with associated clinical outcomes data. CONCLUSION: A tool that gives anesthesiologists timely data on their practice patterns while adjusting for case-mix differences empowers physicians to track changes and variation in opioid administration over time. Such a tool can successfully trigger conversation amongst stakeholders in support of continuous improvement efforts. Clinical analytics dashboards can enable physicians to better understand their practice and provide motivation to change behavior, ultimately addressing unnecessary variation in high impact medication use and minimizing adverse effects.

Improving timeliness in the neglected tropical diseases preventive chemotherapy donation supply chain through information sharing: A retrospective empirical analysis.

BACKGROUND: Billions of doses of medicines are donated for mass drug administrations in support of the World Health Organization's "Roadmap to Implementation," which aims to control, eliminate, and eradicate Neglected Tropical Diseases (NTDs). The supply chain to deliver these medicines is complex, with fragmented data systems and limited visibility on performance. This study empirically evaluates the impact of an online supply chain performance measurement system, "NTDeliver," providing understanding of the value of information sharing towards the success of global health programs. METHODS: Retrospective secondary data were extracted from NTDeliver, which included 1,484 shipments for four critical medicines ordered by over 100 countries between February 28, 2006 and December 31, 2018. We applied statistical regression models to analyze the impact on key performance metrics, comparing data before and after the system was implemented. FINDINGS: The results suggest information sharing has a positive association with improvement for two key performance indicators: purchase order timeliness (ß = 0.941, p = 0.003) and-most importantly-delivery timeliness (ß = 0.828, p = 0.027). There is a positive association with improvement for three variables when the data are publicly shared: shipment timeliness (ß = 2.57, p = 0.001), arrival timeliness (ß = 2.88, p = 0.003), and delivery timeliness (ß = 2.82, p = 0.011). CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that information sharing between the NTD program partners via the NTDeliver system has a positive association with supply chain performance improvements, especially when data are shared publicly. Given the large volume of medicine and the significant number of people requiring these medicines, information sharing has the potential to provide improvements to global health programs affecting the health of tens to hundreds of millions of people.

The Value of Triage during Periods of Intense COVID-19 Demand: Simulation Modeling Study.

BACKGROUND: During the COVID-19 pandemic, many intensive care units have been overwhelmed by unprecedented levels of demand. Notwithstanding ethical considerations, the prioritization of patients with better prognoses may support a more effective use of available capacity in maximizing aggregate outcomes. This has prompted various proposed triage criteria, although in none of these has an objective assessment been made in terms of impact on number of lives and life-years saved. DESIGN: An open-source computer simulation model was constructed for approximating the intensive care admission and discharge dynamics under triage. The model was calibrated from observational data for 9505 patient admissions to UK intensive care units. To explore triage efficacy under various conditions, scenario analysis was performed using a range of demand trajectories corresponding to differing nonpharmaceutical interventions. RESULTS: Triaging patients at the point of expressed demand had negligible effect on deaths but reduces life-years lost by up to 8.4% (95% confidence interval: 2.6% to 18.7%). Greater value may be possible through "reverse triage", that is, promptly discharging any patient not meeting the criteria if admission cannot otherwise be guaranteed for one who does. Under such policy, life-years lost can be reduced by 11.7% (2.8% to 25.8%), which represents 23.0% (5.4% to 50.1%) of what is operationally feasible with no limit on capacity and in the absence of improved clinical treatments. CONCLUSIONS: The effect of simple triage is limited by a tradeoff between reduced deaths within intensive care (due to improved outcomes) and increased deaths resulting from declined admission (due to lower throughput given the longer lengths of stay of survivors). Improvements can be found through reverse triage, at the expense of potentially complex ethical considerations.

Study design and protocol for a comprehensive evaluation of a UK massive open online course (MOOC) on quality improvement in healthcare.

INTRODUCTION: Massive open online courses (MOOCs) offer a flexible approach to online and distance learning, and are growing in popularity. Several MOOCs are now available, to help learners build on their knowledge in a number of healthcare topics. More research is needed to determine the effectiveness of MOOCs as an online education tool, and explore their long-term impact on learners' professional practice. We present a protocol describing the design of comprehensive, mixed-methods evaluation of a MOOC, 'QualityImprovement (QI) inHealthcare: the Case for Change', which aims to improve learner's knowledge and understanding of QI approaches in healthcare, and to increase their confidence in participating, and possibly leading QI projects. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: A pre-post study design using quantitative and qualitative methods will be used to evaluate the QI MOOC. Different elements of the RE-AIM (reach, effectiveness and maintenance) and Kirkpatrick (reaction, learning and behaviour) models will be used to guide the evaluation. All learners who register for the course will be invited to participate in the QI MOOC evaluation study. Those who consent will be asked to complete a presurvey to assess baseline QI knowledge (self-report and objective) and perceived confidence in engaging in QI activities. On completion of the course, participants will complete a postsurvey measuring again knowledge and perceived confidence. Feedback on the course content and how it can be improved. A subset of participants will be invited to take part in a follow-up qualitative interview, 3 months after taking the course, to explore in depth how the MOOC impacted their behaviour in practice. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: The study has been approved by the University of Bath Human Research Ethics Committee (reference: 2958). Study findings will be published in peer-reviewed journals, and disseminated at conference and departmental presentations, and more widely using social media, microblogging sites and periodicals aimed at healthcare professionals.

Tweeting about public health policy: Social media response to the UK Government's announcement of a Parliamentary vote on draft standardised packaging regulations.

BACKGROUND: Standardised tobacco packaging has been, and remains, a contentious policy globally, attracting corporate, public health, political, media and popular attention. In January 2015, the UK Government announced it would vote on draft regulations for the policy before the May 2015 General Election. We explored reactions to the announcement on Twitter, in comparison with an earlier period of little UK Government activity on standardised packaging. METHODS: We obtained a random sample of 1038 tweets in two 4-week periods, before and after the UK Government's announcement. Content analysis was used to examine the following Tweet characteristics: support for the policy, purpose, Twitter-user's geographical location and affiliation, and evidence citation and quality. Chi-squared analyses were used to compare Tweet characteristics between the two periods. RESULTS: Overall, significantly more sampled Tweets were in favour of the policy (49%) in comparison to those opposed (19%). Yet, at Time 2, following the announcement, a greater proportion of sampled tweets opposed standardised packaging compared to the period sampled at Time 1, prior to the announcement (p<0.001). The quality of evidence and research cited in URLs linked at Time 2 was significantly lower than at Time 1 (p<0.001), with peer-reviewed research more likely to be shared in positive Tweets (p<0.001) and in Tweets linking to URLs originating from the health sector (p<0.001). The decline in the proportion of positive Tweets was mirrored by a reduction in Tweets by health sector Twitter-users at Time 2 (p<0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Microblogging sites can reflect offline policy debates and are used differently by policy proponents and opponents dependent on the policy context. Twitter-users opposed to standardised packaging increased their activity following the Government's announcement, while those in support broadly maintained their rate of Twitter engagement. The findings offer insight into the public health community's options for using Twitter to influence policy and disseminate research. In particular, proliferation of Twitter activity following pro-public health policy announcements could be considered to ensure pro-health messages are not overshadowed by anti-regulation voices.

Are medical outliers associated with worse patient outcomes? A retrospective study within a regional NHS hospital using routine data.

OBJECTIVE: To explore the quality and safety of patients' healthcare provision by identifying whether being a medical outlier is associated with worse patient outcomes. A medical outlier is a hospital inpatient who is classified as a medical patient for an episode within a spell of care and has at least one non-medical ward placement within that spell. DATA SOURCES: Secondary data from the Patient Administration System of a district general hospital were provided for the financial years 2013/2014-2015/2016. The data included 71 038 medical patient spells for the 3-year period. STUDY DESIGN: This research was based on a retrospective, cross-sectional observational study design. Multivariate logistic regression and zero-truncated negative binomial regression were used to explore patient outcomes (in-hospital mortality, 30-day mortality, readmissions and length of stay (LOS)) while adjusting for several confounding factors. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Univariate analysis indicated that an outlying medical in-hospital patient has higher odds for readmission, double the odds of staying longer in the hospital but no significant difference in the odds of in-hospital and 30-day mortality. Multivariable analysis indicates that being a medical outlier does not affect mortality outcomes or readmission, but it does prolong LOS in the hospital. CONCLUSIONS: After adjusting for other factors, medical outliers are associated with an increased LOS while mortality or readmissions are not worse than patients treated in appropriate specialty wards. This is in line with existing but limited literature that such patients experience worse patient outcomes. Hospitals may need to revisit their policies regarding outlying patients as increased LOS is associated with an increased likelihood of harm events, worse quality of care and increased healthcare costs.