Effects of long-term exposure to outdoor air pollution on COVID-19 incidence: A population-based cohort study accounting for SARS-CoV-2 exposure levels in the Netherlands.

Several studies have linked air pollution to COVID-19 morbidity and severity. However, these studies do not account for exposure levels to SARS-CoV-2, nor for different sources of air pollution. We analyzed individual-level data for 8.3 million adults in the Netherlands to assess associations between long-term exposure to ambient air pollution and SARS-CoV-2 infection (i.e., positive test) and COVID-19 hospitalisation risks, accounting for spatiotemporal variation in SARS-CoV-2 exposure levels during the first two major epidemic waves (February 2020-February 2021). We estimated average annual concentrations of PM10, PM2.5 and NO2 at residential addresses, overall and by PM source (road traffic, industry, livestock, other agricultural sources, foreign sources, other Dutch sources), at 1 × 1 km resolution, and weekly SARS-CoV-2 exposure at municipal level. Using generalized additive models, we performed interval-censored survival analyses to assess associations between individuals' average exposure to PM10, PM2.5 and NO2 in the three years before the pandemic (2017-2019) and COVID-19-outcomes, adjusting for SARS-CoV-2 exposure, individual and area-specific confounders. In single-pollutant models, per interquartile (IQR) increase in exposure, PM10 was associated with 7% increased infection risk and 16% increased hospitalisation risk, PM2.5 with 8% increased infection risk and 18% increased hospitalisation risk, and NO2 with 3% increased infection risk and 11% increased hospitalisation risk. Bi-pollutant models suggested that effects were mainly driven by PM. Associations for PM were confirmed when stratifying by urbanization degree, epidemic wave and testing policy. All emission sources of PM, except industry, showed adverse effects on both outcomes. Livestock showed the most detrimental effects per unit exposure, whereas road traffic affected severity (hospitalisation) more than infection risk. This study shows that long-term exposure to air pollution increases both SARS-CoV-2 infection and COVID-19 hospitalisation risks, even after controlling for SARS-CoV-2 exposure levels, and that PM may have differential effects on these COVID-19 outcomes depending on the emission source.

Improvements in air quality in the Netherlands during the corona lockdown based on observations and model simulations.

The lockdown measures in response to the SARS-CoV-2 virus outbreak in 2020 have resulted in reductions in emissions of air pollutants and corresponding ambient concentrations. In the Netherlands, the most stringent lockdown measures were in effect from March to May 2020. These measures coincided with a period of unusual meteorological conditions with wind from the north-east and clear-sky conditions, which complicates the quantification of the effect of the lockdown measures on the air quality. Here we quantify the lockdown effects on the concentrations of nitrogen oxides (NOx and NO2), particulate matter (PM10 and PM2.5) and ozone (O3) in the Netherlands, by analyzing observations and simulations with the atmospheric chemistry-transport model EMEP/MSC-W in its EMEP4NL configuration, after eliminating the effects of meteorological conditions during the lockdown. Based on statistical analyses with a Random Forest method, we estimate that the lockdown reduced observed NO2 concentrations by 30% (95% confidence interval 25-35%), 26% (21-32%), and 18% (10-25%) for traffic, urban, and rural background locations, respectively. Slightly smaller reductions of 8-28% are found with the EMEP4NL simulations for urban and regional background locations based on estimates in reductions in economic activity and emissions of traffic and industry in the Netherlands and other European countries. Reductions in observed PM2.5 concentrations of about 20% (10-25%) are found for all locations, which is somewhat larger than the estimates of 5-16% based on the model simulations. A comparison of the calculated NO2 traffic contributions with observations shows a substantial drop of about 35% in traffic contributions during the lockdown period, which is similar to the estimated reductions in mobility data as reported by Apple and Google. Since the largest health effects related to air pollution in the Netherlands are associated with exposure to PM10 and PM2.5, the lockdown measures in spring of 2020 have temporarily improved the air quality in the Netherlands. The concentrations of the most health relevant compounds have only been reduced by about 10-25%.

Changes in Emissions of Ozone-Depleting Substances from China Due to Implementation of the Montreal Protocol.

The ozone layer depletion and its recovery, as well as the climate influence of ozone-depleting substances (ODSs) and their substitutes that influence climate, are of interest to both the scientific community and the public. Here we report on the emissions of ODSs and their substitute from China, which is currently the largest consumer (and emitter) of these substances. We provide, for the first time, comprehensive information on ODSs and replacement hydrofluorocarbon (HFC) emissions in China starting from 1980 based on reported production and usage. We also assess the impacts (and costs) of controls on ODS consumption and emissions on the ozone layer (in terms of CFC-11-equivalent) and climate (in CO2-equivalent). In addition, we show that while China's future ODS emissions are likely to be defined as long as there is full compliance with the Montreal Protocol; its HFC emissions through 2050 are very uncertain. Our findings imply that HFC controls over the next decades that are more stringent than those under the Kigali Amendment to the Montreal Protocol would be beneficial in mitigating global climate change.

Disentangling the effects of CO2 and short-lived climate forcer mitigation.

Anthropogenic global warming is driven by emissions of a wide variety of radiative forcers ranging from very short-lived climate forcers (SLCFs), like black carbon, to very long-lived, like CO2. These species are often released from common sources and are therefore intricately linked. However, for reasons of simplification, this CO2-SLCF linkage was often disregarded in long-term projections of earlier studies. Here we explicitly account for CO2-SLCF linkages and show that the short- and long-term climate effects of many SLCF measures consistently become smaller in scenarios that keep warming to below 2 °C relative to preindustrial levels. Although long-term mitigation of methane and hydrofluorocarbons are integral parts of 2 °C scenarios, early action on these species mainly influences near-term temperatures and brings small benefits for limiting maximum warming relative to comparable reductions taking place later. Furthermore, we find that maximum 21st-century warming in 2 °C-consistent scenarios is largely unaffected by additional black-carbon-related measures because key emission sources are already phased-out through CO2 mitigation. Our study demonstrates the importance of coherently considering CO2-SLCF coevolutions. Failing to do so leads to strongly and consistently overestimating the effect of SLCF measures in climate stabilization scenarios. Our results reinforce that SLCF measures are to be considered complementary rather than a substitute for early and stringent CO2 mitigation. Near-term SLCF measures do not allow for more time for CO2 mitigation. We disentangle and resolve the distinct benefits across different species and therewith facilitate an integrated strategy for mitigating both short and long-term climate change.

Sources, fates, toxicity, and risks of trifluoroacetic acid and its salts: Relevance to substances regulated under the Montreal and Kyoto Protocols.

Trifluoroacetic acid (TFA) is a breakdown product of several hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFC), regulated under the Montreal Protocol (MP), and hydrofluorocarbons (HFC) used mainly as refrigerants. Trifluoroacetic acid is (1) produced naturally and synthetically, (2) used in the chemical industry, and (3) a potential environmental breakdown product of a large number (>1 million) chemicals, including pharmaceuticals, pesticides, and polymers. The contribution of these chemicals to global amounts of TFA is uncertain, in contrast to that from HCFC and HFC regulated under the MP. TFA salts are stable in the environment and accumulate in terminal sinks such as playas, salt lakes, and oceans, where the only process for loss of water is evaporation. Total contribution to existing amounts of TFA in the oceans as a result of the continued use of HCFCs, HFCs, and hydrofluoroolefines (HFOs) up to 2050 is estimated to be a small fraction (<7.5%) of the approximately 0.2 µg acid equivalents/L estimated to be present at the start of the millennium. As an acid or as a salt TFA is low to moderately toxic to a range of organisms. Based on current projections of future use of HCFCs and HFCs, the amount of TFA formed in the troposphere from substances regulated under the MP is too small to be a risk to the health of humans and environment. However, the formation of TFA derived from degradation of HCFC and HFC warrants continued attention, in part because of a long environmental lifetime and due many other potential but highly uncertain sources.

Hydrofluorocarbon (HFC) Emissions in China: An Inventory for 2005-2013 and Projections to 2050.

Many hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) that are widely used as substitutes for ozone-depleting substances (now regulated under the Montreal Protocol) are very potent greenhouse gases (GHGs). China's past and future HFC emissions are of great interest because China has emerged as a major producer and consumer of HFCs. Here, we present for the first time a comprehensive inventory estimate of China's HFC emissions during 2005-2013. Results show a rapid increase in HFC production, consumption, and emissions in China during the period and that the emissions of HFC with a relatively high global warming potential (GWP) grew faster than those with a relatively low GWP. The proportions of China's historical HFC CO2-equivalent emissions to China's CO2 emissions or global HFC CO2-equivalent emissions increased rapidly during 2005-2013. Using the "business-as-usual" (BAU) scenario, in which HFCs are used to replace a significant fraction of hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs) in China (to date, there are no regulations on HFC uses in China), emissions of HFCs are projected to be significant components of China's and global future GHG emissions. However, potentials do exist for minimizing China's HFC emissions (for example, if regulations on HFC uses are established in China). Our findings on China's historical and projected HFC emission trajectories could also apply to other developing countries, with important implications for mitigating global GHG emissions.

Outdoor air pollution as a risk factor for testing positive for SARS-CoV-2: A nationwide test-negative case-control study in the Netherlands.

Air pollution is a known risk factor for several diseases, but the extent to which it influences COVID-19 compared to other respiratory diseases remains unclear. We performed a test-negative case-control study among people with COVID-19-compatible symptoms who were tested for SARS-CoV-2 infection, to assess whether their long- and short-term exposure to ambient air pollution (AAP) was associated with testing positive (vs. negative) for SARS-CoV-2. We used individual-level data for all adult residents in the Netherlands who were tested for SARS-CoV-2 between June and November 2020, when only symptomatic people were tested, and modeled ambient concentrations of PM10, PM2.5, NO2 and O3 at geocoded residential addresses. In long-term exposure analysis, we selected individuals who did not change residential address in 2017-2019 (1.7 million tests) and considered the average concentrations of PM10, PM2.5 and NO2 in that period, and different sources of PM (industry, livestock, other agricultural activities, road traffic, other Dutch sources, foreign sources). In short-term exposure analysis, individuals not changing residential address in the two weeks before testing day (2.7 million tests) were included in the analyses, thus considering 1- and 2-week average concentrations of PM10, PM2.5, NO2 and O3 before testing day as exposure. Mixed-effects logistic regression analysis with adjustment for several confounders, including municipality and testing week to account for spatiotemporal variation in viral circulation, was used. Overall, there was no statistically significant effect of long-term exposure to the studied pollutants on the odds of testing positive vs. negative for SARS-CoV-2. However, significant positive associations of long-term exposure to PM10 and PM2.5 from specifically foreign and livestock sources, and to PM10 from other agricultural sources, were observed. Short-term exposure to PM10 (adjusting for NO2) and PM2.5 were also positively associated with increased odds of testing positive for SARS-CoV-2. While these exposures seemed to increase COVID-19 risk relative to other respiratory diseases, the underlying biological mechanisms remain unclear. This study reinforces the need to continue to strive for better air quality to support public health.

The large contribution of projected HFC emissions to future climate forcing.

The consumption and emissions of hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) are projected to increase substantially in the coming decades in response to regulation of ozone depleting gases under the Montreal Protocol. The projected increases result primarily from sustained growth in demand for refrigeration, air-conditioning (AC) and insulating foam products in developing countries assuming no new regulation of HFC consumption or emissions. New HFC scenarios are presented based on current hydrochlorofluorocarbon (HCFC) consumption in leading applications, patterns of replacements of HCFCs by HFCs in developed countries, and gross domestic product (GDP) growth. Global HFC emissions significantly exceed previous estimates after 2025 with developing country emissions as much as 800% greater than in developed countries in 2050. Global HFC emissions in 2050 are equivalent to 9-19% (CO(2)-eq. basis) of projected global CO(2) emissions in business-as-usual scenarios and contribute a radiative forcing equivalent to that from 6-13 years of CO(2) emissions near 2050. This percentage increases to 28-45% compared with projected CO(2) emissions in a 450-ppm CO(2) stabilization scenario. In a hypothetical scenario based on a global cap followed by 4% annual reductions in consumption, HFC radiative forcing is shown to peak and begin to decline before 2050.

A review of bottom-up and top-down emission estimates of hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) in different parts of the world.

Hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) are widespread alternatives for the ozone-depleting substances chlorofluorocarbons and hydrochlorofluorocarbons. They are used mainly as refrigerants or as foam-blowing agents. HFCs do not deplete the ozone layer, but they are very potent greenhouse gases, already contributing to global warming. Since 2019 HFCs are regulated under the Kigali Amendment to the Montreal Protocol, which demands reliable emission estimates to monitor the phase-down. Quantification of emissions is performed with two methods: bottom-up from product inventories or data on chemical sales; or top-down, inferred from atmospheric measurements by inverse modelling or interspecies correlation. Here, we review and compare the two methods and give an overview of HFC emissions from different parts of the world. Emission estimates reported by the different methods vary considerably. HFC emissions of developed countries (Annex I) are reported to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. These bottom-up estimates add up to only half of global emissions estimated from atmospheric data. Several studies with regional top-down estimates have shown that this gap is not owed to large-scale underreporting of emissions from developed countries, but mostly due to emissions from developing countries (non-Annex I). China accounts for a large fraction of the emissions causing the gap, but not entirely. Bottom-up and top-down estimations of emissions from other developing countries that could identify other large emitters are largely unavailable. Especially South America, West-, Central- and East-Africa, India, the Arabian Peninsula and Northern Australia are not well covered by measurement stations that could provide atmospheric data for top-down estimates.

Quantifying contributions of chlorofluorocarbon banks to emissions and impacts on the ozone layer and climate.

Chlorofluorocarbon (CFC) banks from uses such as air conditioners or foams can be emitted after global production stops. Recent reports of unexpected emissions of CFC-11 raise the need to better quantify releases from these banks, and associated impacts on ozone depletion and climate change. Here we develop a Bayesian probabilistic model for CFC-11, 12, and 113 banks and their emissions, incorporating the broadest range of constraints to date. We find that bank sizes of CFC-11 and CFC-12 are larger than recent international scientific assessments suggested, and can account for much of current estimated CFC-11 and 12 emissions (with the exception of increased CFC-11 emissions after 2012). Left unrecovered, these CFC banks could delay Antarctic ozone hole recovery by about six years and contribute 9 billion metric tonnes of equivalent CO2 emission. Derived CFC-113 emissions are subject to uncertainty, but are much larger than expected, raising questions about its sources.

Particulate air pollution from different sources and mortality in 7.5 million adults - The Dutch Environmental Longitudinal Study (DUELS).

BACKGROUND: Long-term exposure to particulate air pollution has been associated with mortality in urban cohort studies. Few studies have investigated the association between emission contributions from different particle sources and mortality in large-scale population registries, including non-urban populations. OBJECTIVES: The aim of the study was to evaluate the associations between long-term exposure to particulate air pollution from different source categories and non-accidental mortality in the Netherlands based on existing national databases. METHODS: We used existing Dutch national databases on mortality, individual characteristics, residence history, neighbourhood characteristics and modelled air pollution concentrations from different sources and air pollution components: particulate matter PM10, primary particulate matter PM10 (PPM10), particulate matter PM2.5, primary particulate matter PM2.5 (PPM2.5), elemental carbon (EC), nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and secondary inorganic aerosol (SIA) in PM10 (SIA10) or in PM2.5 (SIA2.5). We established a cohort of 7.5 million individuals 30 years or older. We followed the cohort for eight years (2008-2015). We applied Cox proportional hazard regression models adjusting for potential individual and area-specific confounders. RESULTS: We found statistically significant associations between total and primary particulate matter (PM10 and PM2.5), elemental carbon and mortality. Adjustment for nitrogen dioxide did not change the associations. Secondary inorganic aerosol showed less consistent associations. All primary PM sources were associated with mortality, except agricultural emissions and, depending on the statistical model, industrial PM emissions. CONCLUSIONS: We could not identify one or more specific source categories of particulate air pollution as main determinants of the mortality effects found in this and in a previous study. This suggests that present policy measures should be focussed on the wider spectrum of air pollution sources instead of on specific sources.

Deriving Global OH Abundance and Atmospheric Lifetimes for Long-Lived Gases: A Search for CH3CCl3 Alternatives.

An accurate estimate of global hydroxyl radical (OH) abundance is important for projections of air quality, climate, and stratospheric ozone recovery. As the atmospheric mixing ratios of methyl chloroform (CH3CCl3) (MCF), the commonly used OH reference gas, approaches zero, it is important to find alternative approaches to infer atmospheric OH abundance and variability. The lack of global bottom-up emission inventories is the primary obstacle in choosing a MCF alternative. We illustrate that global emissions of long-lived trace gases can be inferred from their observed mixing ratio differences between the Northern Hemisphere (NH) and Southern Hemisphere (SH), given realistic estimates of their NH-SH exchange time, the emission partitioning between the two hemispheres, and the NH versus SH OH abundance ratio. Using the observed long-term trend and emissions derived from the measured hemispheric gradient, the combination of HFC-32 (CH2F2), HFC-134a (CH2FCF3, HFC-152a (CH3CHF2), and HCFC-22 (CHClF2), instead of a single gas, will be useful as a MCF alternative to infer global and hemispheric OH abundance and trace gas lifetimes. The primary assumption on which this multispecies approach relies is that the OH lifetimes can be estimated by scaling the thermal reaction rates of a reference gas at 272 K on global and hemispheric scales. Thus, the derived hemispheric and global OH estimates are forced to reconcile the observed trends and gradient for all four compounds simultaneously. However, currently, observations of these gases from the surface networks do not provide more accurate OH abundance estimate than that from MCF.

Spatial- and time-explicit human damage modeling of ozone depleting substances in life cycle impact assessment.

Depletion of the stratospheric ozone layer is mainly caused by emissions of persistent halocarbons of anthropogenic origin. The resulting increase of solar ultraviolet radiation at the Earth's surface is associated with increased exposure of humans and increased human health damage. Here we assessed the change in human health damage caused by three types of skin cancer and cataract in terms of (healthy) years of life lost per kiloton emission reduction of an ozone-depleting substance (ODS). This so-called characterization factor is used in Life Cycle Assessments (LCAs). Characterization factors are provided for the emissions of five chlorofluorocarbons, three hydrochlorofluorocarbons, three (bromine-containing) halons, carbon tetrachloride, methyl chloroform, and anthropogenic emissions of methyl bromide. We employed dynamic calculations on a global scale for this purpose, taking physical and social geographic data into account such as skin tones, population density, average age, and life expectancy. When emission rates of all ODSs in 2007 are multiplied by our characterization factors, the resulting number of years of life lost may be a factor of 5 higher than reported previously. This increase is merely explained through the global demographic development until 2100 we took into account.

The importance of the Montreal Protocol in protecting climate.

The 1987 Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer is a landmark agreement that has successfully reduced the global production, consumption, and emissions of ozone-depleting substances (ODSs). ODSs are also greenhouse gases that contribute to the radiative forcing of climate change. Using historical ODSs emissions and scenarios of potential emissions, we show that the ODS contribution to radiative forcing most likely would have been much larger if the ODS link to stratospheric ozone depletion had not been recognized in 1974 and followed by a series of regulations. The climate protection already achieved by the Montreal Protocol alone is far larger than the reduction target of the first commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol. Additional climate benefits that are significant compared with the Kyoto Protocol reduction target could be achieved by actions under the Montreal Protocol, by managing the emissions of substitute fluorocarbon gases and/or implementing alternative gases with lower global warming potentials.