Parental migration, socioeconomic deprivation and hospital admissions in preschool children in England: national birth cohort study, 2008 to 2014.

BACKGROUND: A third of children born in England have at least one parent born outside the United Kingdom (UK), yet family migration history is infrequently studied as a social determinant of child health. We describe rates of hospital admissions in children aged up to 5 years by parental migration and socioeconomic group. METHODS: Birth registrations linked to Hospital Episode Statistics were used to derive a cohort of 4,174,596 children born in state-funded hospitals in England between 2008 and 2014, with follow-up until age 5 years. We looked at eight maternal regions of birth, maternal country of birth for the 6 most populous groups and parental migration status for the mother and second parent (UK-born/non-UK-born). We used Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD) quintiles to indicate socioeconomic deprivation. We fitted negative binomial/Poisson regression models to model associations between parental migration groups and the risk of hospital admissions, including interactions with IMD group. RESULTS: Overall, children whose parents were both born abroad had lower emergency admission rates than children with parents both born in the UK. Children of UK-born (73.6% of the cohort) mothers had the highest rates of emergency admissions (171.6 per 1000 child-years, 95% confidence interval (CI) 171.4-171.9), followed by South Asia-born mothers (155.9 per 1000, 95% CI 155.1-156.7). The high rates estimated in the South Asia group were driven by children of women born in Pakistan (186.8 per 1000, 95% CI 185.4-188.2). A socioeconomic gradient in emergency admissions was present across all maternal regions of birth groups, but most pronounced among children of UK-born mothers (incidence rate ratio 1.43, 95% CI 1.42-1.44, high vs. low IMD group). Patterns of planned admissions followed a similar socioeconomic gradient and were highest among children with mothers born in Middle East and North Africa, and South Asia. CONCLUSIONS: Overall, we found the highest emergency admission rates among children of UK-born parents from the most deprived backgrounds. However, patterns differed when decomposing maternal place of birth and admission reason, highlighting the importance of a nuanced approach to research on migration and health.

Assessing the evidence for health benefits of low-level weight loss: a systematic review.

Individuals with excess weight are at a higher risk for various physical and mental health conditions. Interventions targeting weight loss can improve health, with modest weight loss of five to ten percent of body weight often considered clinically meaningful for enhancing health outcomes. However, the benefits of achieving low-level weight loss ( < 5% body weight) are poorly understood. We aimed to systematically review relevant literature and synthesise the evidence that assessed the potential health benefits of losing less than five percent body weight. We searched seven academic databases and included studies in any language, from any country, with no time constraints. We included any intervention studies that assessed the impact of less than five percent weight loss on any measured physical or mental health markers or indices. 70 studies from 68 articles were included, with study participants ranging from 14 to 10,742. In total, 137 health markers were assessed, categorised into metabolic markers (n = 42), cardiovascular markers (n = 32), anthropometric measures (n = 19), quality of life indices (n = 10), inflammatory biomarkers (n = 10), renal and hepatic markers (n = 9), psychosocial and behavioural measures (n = 8), pulmonary function (n = 3), total mortality (n = 2), ovulatory function (n = 1), and muscle strength (n = 1). Overall, 60% of studies reported improvements, 37% found no change or mixed results, and 3% observed a worsening of health markers or indices. Based on the available data, 87% of participants (n = 15,839) in the studies reported improvements in health markers or indices as a result of low-level weight loss. Our findings suggest that low-level weight loss can lead to various health benefits and challenges the conventional threshold for effective weight loss.Preregistration The review protocol was pre-registered with PROSPERO (CRD42023406342).

Progressing "Positive epidemiology": A cross-national analysis of adolescents' positive mental health and outcomes during the COVID-19 pandemic.

PURPOSE: "Positive epidemiology" emphasizes strengths and assets that protect the health of populations. Positive mental health refers to a range of social and emotional capabilities that may support adaptation to challenging circumstances. We examine the role of positive mental health in promoting adolescent health during the crisis phase of the COVID-19 pandemic. METHODS: We used four long-running Australian and UK longitudinal cohorts: Childhood to Adolescence Transition Study (CATS; analyzed N=809; Australia); Longitudinal Study of Australian Children (LSAC) - Baby (analyzed N=1,534) and Kindergarten (analyzed N=1,300) cohorts; Millennium Cohort Study (MCS; analyzed N=2,490; UK). Measures included: (Pre-pandemic exposure): Positive mental health (parent-reported, 13-15 years) including regulating emotions, interacting well with peers, and caring for others; and pandemic outcomes: psychological distress, life satisfaction, and sleep and alcohol use outside of recommendations (16-21 years; 2020). We used two-stage meta-analysis to estimate associations between positive mental health and outcomes across cohorts, accounting for potential confounders. RESULTS: Estimates suggest meaningful effects of positive mental health on psychosocial outcomes during the pandemic, including lower risk of psychological distress (Risk Ratio [RR]=0.83 95%CI=0.71, 0.97) and higher life satisfaction (RR=1.1, 95%CI=1.0, 1.2). The estimated effects for health behaviors were smaller in magnitude (sleep: RR=0.95, 95%CI=0.86, 1.1; alcohol use: RR=0.97, 95%CI=0.85, 1.1). CONCLUSIONS: Our results are consistent with the hypothesis that adolescents' positive mental health supports better psychosocial outcomes during challenges such as the COVID-19 pandemic, but relevance for health behaviors is less clear. These findings reinforce the value of extending evidence to include positive health states and assets.

Publisher Correction: Adolescence and the next generation.

In Fig. 4a of this Analysis, owing to an error during the production process, the year in the header of the right column was '2016' rather than '2010'. In addition, in the HTML version of the Analysis, Table 1 was formatted incorrectly. These errors have been corrected online.

Adolescence and the next generation.

Adolescent growth and social development shape the early development of offspring from preconception through to the post-partum period through distinct processes in males and females. At a time of great change in the forces shaping adolescence, including the timing of parenthood, investments in today's adolescents, the largest cohort in human history, will yield great dividends for future generations.

The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on 397 631 elective dental admissions among the under-25s in England: a retrospective study.

BACKGROUND: COVID-19 caused widespread disruptions to health services worldwide, including reductions in elective surgery. Tooth extractions are among the most common reasons for elective surgery among children and young people (CYP). It is unclear how COVID-19 affected elective dental surgeries in hospitals over multiple pandemic waves at a national level. METHODS: Elective dental tooth extraction admissions were selected using Hospital Episode Statistics. Admission trends for the first 14 pandemic months were compared with the previous five years and results were stratified by age (under-11s, 11-16s, 17-24s). RESULTS: The most socioeconomically deprived CYP comprised the largest proportion of elective dental tooth extraction admissions. In April 2020, admissions dropped by >95%. In absolute terms, the biggest reduction was in April (11-16s: -1339 admissions, 95% CI -1411 to -1267; 17-24s: -1600, -1678 to -1521) and May 2020 (under-11s: -2857, -2962 to -2752). Admissions differed by socioeconomic deprivation for the under-11s (P < 0.0001), driven by fewer admissions than expected by the most deprived and more by the most affluent during the pandemic. CONCLUSION: Elective tooth extractions dropped most in April 2020, remaining below pre-pandemic levels throughout the study. Despite being the most likely to be admitted, the most deprived under-11s had the largest reductions in admissions relative to other groups.

Childhood attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder: socioeconomic inequalities in symptoms, impact, diagnosis and medication.

BACKGROUND: Children from disadvantaged backgrounds are at greater risk of attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD)-related symptoms, being diagnosed with ADHD, and being prescribed ADHD medications. We aimed to examine how inequalities manifest across the 'patient journey', from perceptions of impacts of ADHD symptoms on daily life, to the propensity to seek and receive a diagnosis and treatment. METHODS: We investigated four 'stages': (1) symptoms, (2) caregiver perception of impact, (3) diagnosis and (4) medication, in two data sets: UK Millennium Cohort Study (MCS, analytic n ~ 9,000), with relevant (parent-reported) information on all four stages (until 14 years); and a population-wide 'administrative cohort', which includes symptoms (child health checks) and prescriptions (dispensing records), born in Scotland, 2010-2012 (analytic n ~ 100,000), until ~6 years. We described inequalities according to maternal occupational status, with percentages and relative indices of inequality (RII). RESULTS: The prevalence of ADHD symptoms and medication receipt was considerably higher in the least compared to the most advantaged children in the administrative cohort (RIIs of 5.9 [5.5-6.4] and 8.1 [4.2-15.6]) and the MCS (3.08 [2.68-3.55], 3.75 [2.21-6.36]). MCS analyses highlighted complexities between these two stages, however, those from least advantaged backgrounds, with ADHD symptoms, were the least likely to perceive impacts on daily life (15.7% vs. average 19.5%) and to progress from diagnosis to medication (44.1% vs. average 72.5%). CONCLUSIONS: Despite large inequalities in ADHD symptoms and medication, parents from the least advantaged backgrounds were less likely to report impacts of ADHD symptoms on daily life, and their children were less likely to have received medication postdiagnosis, highlighting how patient journeys differed according to socioeconomic circumstances.

Could interventions on physical activity mitigate genomic liability for obesity? Applying the health disparity framework in genetically informed studies.

Polygenic scores (PGS) are now commonly available in longitudinal cohort studies, leading to their integration into epidemiological research. In this work, our aim is to explore how polygenic scores can be used as exposures in causal inference-based methods, specifically mediation analyses. We propose to estimate the extent to which the association of a polygenic score indexing genetic liability to an outcome could be mitigated by a potential intervention on a mediator. To do this this, we use the interventional disparity measure approach, which allows us to compare the adjusted total effect of an exposure on an outcome, with the association that would remain had we intervened on a potentially modifiable mediator. As an example, we analyse data from two UK cohorts, the Millennium Cohort Study (MCS, N = 2575) and the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC, N = 3347). In both, the exposure is genetic liability for obesity (indicated by a PGS for BMI), the outcome is late childhood/early adolescent BMI, and the mediator and potential intervention target is physical activity, measured between exposure and outcome. Our results suggest that a potential intervention on child physical activity can mitigate some of the genetic liability for childhood obesity. We propose that including PGSs in a health disparity measure approach, and causal inference-based methods more broadly, is a valuable addition to the study of gene-environment interplay in complex health outcomes.

Medium-term health and social outcomes in adolescents following sexual assault: a prospective mixed-methods cohort study.

PURPOSE: To describe medium-term physical and mental health and social outcomes following adolescent sexual assault, and examine users' perceived needs and experiences. METHOD: Longitudinal, mixed methods cohort study of adolescents aged 13-17 years recruited within 6 weeks of sexual assault (study entry) and followed to study end, 13-15 months post-assault. RESULTS: 75/141 participants were followed to study end (53% retention; 71 females) and 19 completed an in-depth qualitative interview. Despite many participants accessing support services, 54%, 59% and 72% remained at risk for depressive, anxiety and post-traumatic stress disorders 13-15 months post-assault. Physical symptoms were reported more frequently. Persistent (> 30 days) absence from school doubled between study entry and end, from 22 to 47%. Enduring mental ill-health and disengagement from education/employment were associated with psychosocial risk factors rather than assault characteristics. Qualitative data suggested inter-relationships between mental ill-health, physical health problems and disengagement from school, and poor understanding from schools regarding how to support young people post-assault. Baseline levels of smoking, alcohol and ever drug use were high and increased during the study period (only significantly for alcohol use). CONCLUSION: Adolescents presenting after sexual assault have high levels of vulnerability over a year post-assault. Many remain at risk for mental health disorders, highlighting the need for specialist intervention and ongoing support. A key concern for young people is disruption to their education. Multi-faceted support is needed to prevent social exclusion and further widening of health inequalities in this population, and to support young people in their immediate and long-term recovery.

This needs to be a journey that we're actually on together'-the introduction of integrated care systems for children and young people in England: a qualitative study of the views of local system stakeholders during winter 2021/22.

BACKGROUND: Integrated care has become a central feature of health system reform worldwide. In England, Integrated Care Systems (ICS) are intended to improve integration across public health, the National Health Service (NHS), education and social care. By April 2021, England had been divided into 42 geographical areas, each tasked with developing local ICS provision. However, it was not clear how ICSs would address the specific needs of children and young people (CYP). This study elicited the views of senior professional stakeholders in the first year of the ICS national roll out, to learn how integrated care for CYP was being implemented within the ICSs and future plans for service provision. METHODS: A qualitative analysis of in-depth interviews with stakeholders, including healthcare professionals, NHS managers and local authority leaders (n = 25) selected from a diverse sample of ICSs (n = 7) across England, conducted during winter 2021/22. Reflexive thematic analysis involving a collaborative coding approach was used to analyse interview transcripts. RESULTS: Four themes were identified, indicating challenges and opportunities for ICSs in relation to the health of CYP: 1) Best start in life (a more holistic approach to health afforded by integrated care); 2) Local and national contexts (tensions between local and national settings and priorities); 3) Funding and planning (instituting innovative, long-term plans using limited existing CYP funding streams); 4) Organisational complexities (integrating the work of diverse organisations). CONCLUSIONS: The views of stakeholders, provided at the beginning of the journey towards developing local ICS CYP provision, revealed a common aspiration to change focus from provision of acute, largely adult-orientated services towards one with a broader, population health remit, including prevention and early intervention. This would be delivered by integration of a range of local services, including health, education, housing and social care, to set CYP on a life-long path towards improved health and wellbeing. Yet there was an awareness that change would take place over time within existing national policy and funding frameworks, and would require overcoming organisational barriers through further developing local collaborations and partnerships. As ICSs mature, the experiences of stakeholders should continue to be canvassed to identify practical lessons for successful CYP integrated care.

Learning outcomes in primary school children with emotional problems: a prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Academic difficulties are common in adolescents with mental health problems. Although earlier childhood emotional problems, characterised by heightened anxiety and depressive symptoms are common forerunners to adolescent mental health problems, the degree to which mental health problems in childhood may contribute independently to academic difficulties has been little explored. METHODS: Data were drawn from a prospective cohort study of students in Melbourne, Australia (N = 1239). Data were linked with a standardised national assessment of academic performance at baseline (9 years) and wave three (11 years). Depressive and anxiety symptoms were assessed at baseline and wave two (10 years). Regression analyses estimated the association between emotional problems (9 and/or 10 years) and academic performance at 11 years, adjusting for baseline academic performance, sex, age and socioeconomic status, and hyperactivity/inattention symptoms. RESULTS: Students with depressive symptoms at 9 years of age had lost nearly 4 months of numeracy learning two years later after controlling for baseline academic performance and confounders. Results were similar for anxiety symptoms. Regardless of when depressive symptoms occurred there were consistent associations with poorer numeracy performance at 11 years. The association of depressive symptoms with reading performance was weaker than for numeracy if they were present at wave two. Persistent anxiety symptoms across two waves led to nearly a 4 month loss of numeracy learning at 11 years, but the difference was not meaningful for reading. Findings were similar when including hyperactivity/inattention symptoms. CONCLUSIONS: Childhood anxiety and depression are not only forerunners of later mental health problems but predict academic achievement. Partnerships between education and health systems have the potential to not only improve childhood emotional problems but also improve learning.

Bioinspired Synthesis of Pinoxaden Metabolites Using a Site-Selective C-H Oxidation Strategy.

A bioinspired synthesis of Pinoxaden metabolites 2-5 is described herein. A site-selective C-H oxidation strategy validated by density functional theory (DFT) calculations was devised for preparing metabolites 2-4. Oxidation of the benzylic C-H bond in tertiary alcohol 7 using K2S2O8 and catalytic AgNO3 formed the desired metabolite 2 that enabled access to metabolites 3 and 4 in a single step. Unlike most metal/persulfate-catalyzed transformations reported for the C-C and C-O bond formation reactions wherein the metal acts as a catalyst, we propose that Ag(I)/K2S2O8 plays the role of an initiator in the oxidation of intermediate 7 to 2. Metabolite 2 was subjected to a ruthenium tetroxide-mediated C-H oxidation to form metabolites 3 and 4 as a mixture that were purified to isolate pure standards of these metabolites. Metabolite 5 was synthesized from readily available advanced intermediate 9 via a House-Meinwald-type rearrangement in one step using a base.

Distinct Body Mass Index Trajectories to Young-Adulthood Obesity and Their Different Cardiometabolic Consequences.

[Figure: see text].

Locating and testing the healthy context paradox: examples from the INCLUSIVE trial.

BACKGROUND: The healthy context paradox, originally described with respect to school-level bullying interventions, refers to the generation of differences in mental wellbeing amongst those who continue to experience bullying even after interventions successfully reduce victimisation. Using data from the INCLUSIVE trial of restorative practice in schools, we relate this paradox to the need to theorise potential harms when developing interventions; formulate the healthy context paradox in a more general form defined by mediational relationships and cluster-level interventions; and propose two statistical models for testing the healthy context paradox informed by multilevel mediation methods, with relevance to structural and individual explanations for this paradox. METHODS: We estimated two multilevel mediation models with bullying victimisation as the mediator and mental wellbeing as the outcome: one with a school-level interaction between intervention assignment and the mediator; and one with a random slope component for the student-level mediator-outcome relationship predicted by school-level assignment. We relate each of these models to contextual or individual-level explanations for the healthy context paradox. RESULTS: Neither model suggested that the INCLUSIVE trial represented an example of the healthy context paradox. However, each model has different interpretations which relate to a multilevel understanding of the healthy context paradox. CONCLUSIONS: Greater exploration of intervention harms, especially when those accrue to population subgroups, is an essential step in better understanding how interventions work and for whom. Our proposed tests for the presence of a healthy context paradox provide the analytic tools to better understand how to support development and implementation of interventions that work for all groups in a population. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Current Controlled Trials, ISRCTN10751359 .

What is the impact of structural and cultural factors and interventions within educational settings on promoting positive mental health and preventing poor mental health: a systematic review.

Mental health (MH) difficulties are on the increase among children and young people (CYP). Evidence has shown that educational settings contain both risk and protective factors for MH. This review investigated which structural and cultural factors and interventions within educational settings promote positive MH and prevent poor MH in 4-18 year olds. Searches were conducted in PsychINFO, Embase, ERIC, ASSIA and British Education Index, and reference lists from key studies and relevant systematic reviews were hand-searched. Intervention, cohort, and qualitative studies were included. Of the 62 included papers, 36 examined cultural factors (30 social/relational and six value-related) while 12 studies examined structural factors (eight organisational and four physical) and 14 studies examined multiple factors. There was strong evidence for the impact of positive classroom management techniques, access to physical activity, and peer mentoring on student MH. Studies examining the impact of positive school culture, teacher training in MH and parent involvement in school MH activities also found predominantly positive results for student MH, albeit the evidence was of lower quality or from a low number of studies. Few studies explicitly examined the impact of interventions on MH inequalities; those that did indicated limited if any reduction to inequalities. A very small number of studies suggested that interventions targeting those at risk of poor MH due to socioeconomic factors could successfully improve wellbeing and reduce depression, anxiety and behavioural problems. Studies exploring the effect of management and leadership strategies within schools, policies, and aspects of the physical environment other than green space were scarce or absent in the literature. This review highlights the need to consider the ways in which educational settings are organised, the culture that is created and the physical space in order to improve the MH of CYP.

Determinants of accident and emergency attendances and emergency admissions in infants: birth cohort study.

BACKGROUND: There is limited understanding of the drivers of increasing infant accident and emergency (A&E) attendances and emergency hospital admissions across England. We examine variations in use of emergency hospital services among infants by local areas in England and investigate the extent to which infant and socio-economic factors explain these variations. METHODS: Birth cohort study using linked administrative Hospital Episode Statistics data in England. Singleton live births between 1-April-2012 and 31-March-2019 were followed up for 1 year; from 1-April-2013 (from the discharge date of their birth admission) until their first birthday, death or 31-March-2019. Mixed effects negative binomial models were used to calculate incidence rate ratios for A&E attendances and emergency admissions and mixed effects logistic regression models estimated odds ratio of conversion (the proportion of infants subsequently admitted after attending A&E). Models were adjusted for individual-level factors and included a random effect for local authority (LA). RESULTS: The cohort comprised 3,665,414 births in 150 English LAs. Rates of A&E attendances and emergency admissions were highest amongst: infants born < 32 weeks gestation; with presence of congenital anomaly; and to mothers < 20-years-old. Area-level deprivation was positively associated with A&E attendance rates, but not associated with conversion probability. A&E attendance rates were highest in the North East (916 per 1000 child-years, 95%CI: 911 to 921) and London (876 per 1000, 95%CI: 874 to 879), yet London had the lowest emergency admission rates (232 per 1000, 95%CI: 231 to 234) and conversion probability (25% vs 39% in South West). Adjusting for individual-level factors did not significantly affect variability in A&E attendance and emergency admission rates by local authority. CONCLUSIONS: Drivers of A&E attendances and emergency admissions include individual-level factors such being born premature, with congenital anomaly and from socio-economically disadvantaged young parent families. Support for such vulnerable infants and families should be provided alongside preventative health care in primary and community care settings. The impact of these services requires further investigation. Substantial geographical variations in rates were not explained by individual-level factors. This suggests more detailed understanding of local and underlying service-level factors would provide targets for further research on mechanisms and policy priority.

Effects of a Whole-School Health Intervention on Clustered Adolescent Health Risks: Latent Transition Analysis of Data from the INCLUSIVE Trial.

Whole-school interventions are a promising approach to preventing bullying and aggression while promoting broader health. The main analyses from a trial of the INCLUSIVE whole-school intervention reported reductions in bullying victimisation but not aggression and improved mental well-being. Latent transition analysis can examine how interventions 'move' people between classes defined by multiple outcomes over time. We examined at baseline what classes best defined individuals' bullying, aggression and mental well-being and what effects did the intervention have on movement between classes over time? INCLUSIVE was a two-arm cluster-randomised trial with 20 high schools per arm, with 24-month and 36-month follow-ups. We estimated sequential latent class solutions on baseline data. We then estimated a latent transition model including baseline, 24-month and 36-month follow-up measurements. Our sample comprised 8179 students (4082 control, 4097 intervention arms). At baseline, classes were (1) bullying victims, (2) aggression perpetrators, (3) extreme perpetrators and (4) neither victims nor perpetrators. Control students who were extreme perpetrators were equally likely to stay in this class (27.0% probability) or move to aggression perpetrators (25.0% probability) at 24 months. In the intervention group, fewer extreme perpetrators students remained (5.4%), with more moving to aggression perpetrators (65.1%). More control than intervention extreme perpetrators moved to neither victims nor perpetrators (35.2% vs 17.8%). Between 24 and 36 months, more intervention students moved from aggression perpetrators to neither victims nor perpetrators than controls (30.1% vs 22.3%). Our findings suggest that the intervention had important effects in transitioning students to lower-risk classes.

Universal Mindfulness Training in Schools for Adolescents: a Scoping Review and Conceptual Model of Moderators, Mediators, and Implementation Factors.

There is evidence that universal school-based mindfulness training (SBMT) can have positive effects for young people. However, it is unknown who benefits most from such training, how training exerts effects, and how implementation impacts effects. This study aimed to provide an overview of the evidence on the mediators, moderators, and implementation factors of SBMT, and propose a conceptual model that can be used both to summarize the evidence and provide a framework for future research. A scoping review was performed, and six databases and grey literature were searched. Inclusion and exclusion criteria were applied to select relevant material. Quantitative and qualitative information was extracted from eligible articles and reported in accordance with PRISMA-ScR guidelines. The search produced 5479 articles, of which 31 were eligible and included in the review. Eleven studies assessed moderators of SBMT on pupil outcomes, with mixed findings for all variables tested. Five studies examined the mediating effect of specific variables on pupil outcomes, with evidence that increases in mindfulness skills and decreases in cognitive reactivity and self-criticism post-intervention are related to better pupil outcomes at follow-up. Twenty-five studies assessed implementation factors. We discuss key methodological shortcomings of included studies and integrate our findings with existing implementation frameworks to propose a conceptual model. Widespread interest in universal SBMT has led to increased research over recent years, exploring who SBMT works for and how it might work, but the current evidence is limited. We make recommendations for future research and provide a conceptual model to guide theory-led developments.

Cost-Utility Analysis of a Complex Intervention to Reduce School-Based Bullying and Aggression: An Analysis of the Inclusive RCT.

OBJECTIVES: Bullying and aggression among children and young people are key public mental health priorities. In this study, we evaluated the cost-effectiveness of a complex school-based intervention to address these outcomes within a large-cluster randomized trial (Inclusive). METHODS: Forty state secondary schools were randomly allocated (1:1) to receive the intervention or continue with current practice as controls. Data were collected using paper questionnaires completed in classrooms including measures of their health-related quality of life using the Childhood Utility Index and police and National Health Service resource use. Further detailed data were collected on the cost of delivering the intervention. We calculated incremental cost-effectiveness ratios following the intention-to-treat principle using multilevel linear regression models that allowed for clustering of pupils at the school level. RESULTS: Overall, we found that the intervention was highly cost-effective, with cost-per quality-adjusted life year thresholds of £13 284 and £1875 at 2 years and 3 years, respectively. Analysis of uncertainty in the result at 2 years revealed a 65% chance of being cost-effective, but after 3 years there was a 90% chance that it was cost-effective. CONCLUSION: This study provides strong evidence collected prospectively from a randomized study that this school-based intervention is highly cost-effective. Education- and health-sector policy makers should consider investment in scaling up this intervention.

Early childhood weight gain: Latent patterns and body composition outcomes.

BACKGROUND: Despite early childhood weight gain being a key indicator of obesity risk, we do not have a good understanding of the different patterns that exist. OBJECTIVES: To identify and characterise distinct groups of children displaying similar early-life weight trajectories. METHODS: A growth mixture model captured heterogeneity in weight trajectories between 0 and 60 months in 1390 children in the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children. Differences between the classes in characteristics and body size/composition at 9 years were investigated. RESULTS: The best model had five classes. The "Normal" (45%) and "Normal after initial catch-down" (24%) classes were close to the 50th centile of a growth standard between 24 and 60 months. The "High-decreasing" (21%) and "Stable-high" (7%) classes peaked at the ~91st centile at 12-18 months, but while the former declined to the ~75th centile and comprised constitutionally big children, the latter did not. The "Rapidly increasing" (3%) class gained weight from below the 50th centile at 4 months to above the 91st centile at 60 months. By 9 years, their mean body mass index (BMI) placed them at the 98th centile. This class was characterised by the highest maternal BMI; highest parity; highest levels of gestational hypertension and diabetes; and the lowest socio-economic position. At 9 years, the "Rapidly increasing" class was estimated to have 68.2% (95% confidence interval [CI] 48.3, 88.1) more fat mass than the "Normal" class, but only 14.0% (95% CI 9.1, 18.9) more lean mass. CONCLUSIONS: Criteria used in growth monitoring practice are unlikely to consistently distinguish between the different patterns of weight gain reported here.