Global survey of anthropogenic neighborhood threats to conservation of grass-shrub and forest vegetation.

The conservation value of natural vegetation is degraded by proximity to anthropogenic land uses. Previous global assessments focused primarily on the amount of land protected or converted to anthropogenic uses, and on forest vegetation. Comparative assessments of extant vegetation in terms of proximity to anthropogenic land uses are needed to better inform conservation planning. We conducted a novel comparative survey of global forest and grass-shrub vegetation at risk of degradation owing to proximity of anthropogenic land uses. Using a global land cover map, risks were classified according to direct adjacency with anthropogenic land cover (adjacency risk), occurrence in anthropogenic neighborhoods (neighborhood risk), or either (combined risk). The survey results for adjacency risk and combined risk were summarized by ecoregions and biomes. Adjacency risk threatens 22 percent of global grass-shrub and 12 percent of forest vegetation, contributing to combined risk which threatens 31 percent of grass-shrub and 20 percent of forest vegetation. Of 743 ecoregions examined, adjacency risk threatens at least 50 percent of grass-shrub vegetation in 224 ecoregions compared to only 124 ecoregions for forest. The conservation threats posed by proximity to anthropogenic land cover are higher for grass-shrub vegetation than for forest vegetation.

A method for comparative analysis of recovery potential in impaired waters restoration planning.

Common decision support tools and a growing body of knowledge about ecological recovery can help inform and guide large state and federal restoration programs affecting thousands of impaired waters. Under the federal Clean Water Act (CWA), waters not meeting state Water Quality Standards due to impairment by pollutants are placed on the CWA Section 303(d) list, scheduled for Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL) development, and ultimately restored. Tens of thousands of 303(d)-listed waters, many with completed TMDLs, represent a restoration workload of many years. State TMDL scheduling and implementation decisions influence the choice of waters and the sequence of restoration. Strategies that compare these waters' recovery potential could optimize the gain of ecological resources by restoring promising sites earlier. We explored ways for states to use recovery potential in restoration priority setting with landscape analysis methods, geographic data, and impaired waters monitoring data. From the literature and practice we identified measurable, recovery-relevant ecological, stressor, and social context metrics and developed a restorability screening approach adaptable to widely different environments and program goals. In this paper we describe the indicators, the methodology, and three statewide, recovery-based targeting and prioritization projects. We also call for refining the scientific basis for estimating recovery potential.

Multi-scale landscape factors influencing stream water quality in the state of Oregon.

Enterococci bacteria are used to indicate the presence of human and/or animal fecal materials in surface water. In addition to human influences on the quality of surface water, a cattle grazing is a widespread and persistent ecological stressor in the Western United States. Cattle may affect surface water quality directly by depositing nutrients and bacteria, and indirectly by damaging stream banks or removing vegetation cover, which may lead to increased sediment loads. This study used the State of Oregon surface water data to determine the likelihood of animal pathogen presence using enterococci and analyzed the spatial distribution and relationship of biotic (enterococci) and abiotic (nitrogen and phosphorous) surface water constituents to landscape metrics and others (e.g. human use, percent riparian cover, natural covers, grazing, etc.). We used a grazing potential index (GPI) based on proximity to water, land ownership and forage availability. Mean and variability of GPI, forage availability, stream density and length, and landscape metrics were related to enterococci and many forms of nitrogen and phosphorous in standard and logistic regression models. The GPI did not have a significant role in the models, but forage related variables had significant contribution. Urban land use within stream reach was the main driving factor when exceeding the threshold (> or =35 cfu/100 ml), agriculture was the driving force in elevating enterococci in sites where enterococci concentration was <35 cfu/100 ml. Landscape metrics related to amount of agriculture, wetlands and urban all contributed to increasing nutrients in surface water but at different scales. The probability of having sites with concentrations of enterococci above the threshold was much lower in areas of natural land cover and much higher in areas with higher urban land use within 60 m of stream. A 1% increase in natural land cover was associated with a 12% decrease in the predicted odds of having a site exceeding the threshold. Opposite to natural land cover, a one unit change in each of manmade barren and urban land use led to an increase of the likelihood of exceeding the threshold by 73%, and 11%, respectively. Change in urban land use had a higher influence on the likelihood of a site exceeding the threshold than that of natural land cover.

A geospatial study of the potential of two exotic species of mosquitoes to impact the epidemiology of West Nile virus in Maryland.

We used geospatial techniques to study the potential impact of 2 exotic mosquitoes, Aedes albopictus and Ochlerotatus japonicus japonicus, on the epidemiology of West Nile virus in Maryland. These 2 species have established populations in Maryland over the past 15 years. Larvae of both mosquito species are found in natural and artificial water-holding cavities and containers, particularly water in tires. Therefore, we used locations of licensed tire dealers and of tire dumps scheduled for clean up as an index for potential sources of mosquito vectors. This index was expected to underestimate the actual population of source habitats. West Nile virus activity in Maryland during 1999, 2000, and 2001 was indicated by the presence of dead, infected birds, particularly American crows and other corvids; infected pools of mosquitoes; and human and horse infections. Adult females of both mosquito species are aggressive, opportunistic feeders that have been observed to take blood meals from avian and mammalian hosts. Susceptible vertebrate hosts, particularly birds, are ubiquitously distributed throughout the developed areas of the state. This analysis demonstrated a spatial convergence of the virus, the exotic mosquito vectors, and susceptible hosts. This conjunction indicated that these 2 mosquito species have a high potential to serve as bridge vectors and thus, impact the epidemiology of West Nile virus under favorable environmental and climatic conditions. Positive mosquito pools were collected from only the Baltimore-Washington metropolitan corridor, suggesting a newly created enzootic focus for this virus. Land-cover analysis of the sites where virus activity had been detected showed predominantly developed land uses. Analyses of the environmental justice aspects (social, economic, and housing characteristics) of block groups with human West Nile fever cases or with positive mosquito pools were equivocal. Human cases seemed to occur in developed block groups with lower income levels.

Detecting temporal change in watershed nutrient yields.

Meta-analyses reveal that nutrient yields tend to be higher for watersheds dominated by anthropogenic uses (e.g., urban, agriculture) and lower for watersheds dominated by natural vegetation. One implication of this pattern is that loss of natural vegetation will produce increases in watershed nutrient yields. Yet, the same meta-analyses also reveal that, absent land-cover change, watershed nutrient yields vary from one year to the next due to many exogenous factors. The interacting effects of land cover and exogenous factors suggest nutrient yields should be treated as distributions, and the effect of land-cover change should be examined by looking for significant changes in the distributions. We compiled nutrient yield distributions from published data. The published data included watersheds with homogeneous land cover that typically reported two or more years of annual nutrient yields for the same watershed. These data were used to construct statistical models, and the models were used to estimate changes in the nutrient yield distributions as a result of land-cover change. Land-cover changes were derived from the National Land Cover Database (NLCD). Total nitrogen (TN) yield distributions increased significantly for 35 of 1550 watersheds and decreased significantly for 51. Total phosphorus (TP) yield distributions increased significantly for 142 watersheds and decreased significantly for 17. The amount of land-cover change required to produce significant shifts in nutrient yield distributions was not constant. Small land-cover changes led to significant shifts in nutrient yield distributions when watersheds were dominated by natural vegetation, whereas much larger land-cover changes were needed to produce significant shifts when watersheds were dominated by urban or agriculture. We discuss our results in the context of the Clean Water Act.