Mapping HIV prevalence in sub-Saharan Africa between 2000 and 2017.

HIV/AIDS is a leading cause of disease burden in sub-Saharan Africa. Existing evidence has demonstrated that there is substantial local variation in the prevalence of HIV; however, subnational variation has not been investigated at a high spatial resolution across the continent. Here we explore within-country variation at a 5 × 5-km resolution in sub-Saharan Africa by estimating the prevalence of HIV among adults (aged 15-49 years) and the corresponding number of people living with HIV from 2000 to 2017. Our analysis reveals substantial within-country variation in the prevalence of HIV throughout sub-Saharan Africa and local differences in both the direction and rate of change in HIV prevalence between 2000 and 2017, highlighting the degree to which important local differences are masked when examining trends at the country level. These fine-scale estimates of HIV prevalence across space and time provide an important tool for precisely targeting the interventions that are necessary to bringing HIV infections under control in sub-Saharan Africa.

Uptake of Screening and Recurrence of Bicuspid Aortic Valve and Thoracic Aortic Aneurysm Among At-Risk Siblings of Pediatric Probands.

OBJECTIVE: To determine uptake of cardiac screening and recurrence of bicuspid aortic valve (BAV) and thoracic aortic aneurysm (TAA) in a population of at-risk siblings of pediatric probands. STUDY DESIGN: A retrospective chart review of pediatric patients with known BAV and/or TAA was performed. Echocardiogram data from identified siblings were collected to determine screening uptake and recurrence of BAV and TAA. Statistical analyses were performed using Wilcoxon signed-rank test and chi-square. RESULTS: The cohort included 251 probands and 388 at-risk siblings. Among the siblings, 150 had at least 1 echocardiogram, giving an overall screening uptake of 38.7%. The only factor found to be associated with increased uptake was documented recommendation for screening of first-degree relatives in the proband's initial cardiology note (P = .03). A total of 11 screened siblings (7.3%) had BAV and 19 had TAA (12.7%), with an overall combined recurrence of 15.3%. Siblings of probands who had both BAV and TAA had increased recurrence of TAA compared with siblings of probands with isolated BAV (16.1% vs 3.9%, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: Given low uptake in at-risk siblings, the opportunity exists to assess barriers for families in pursuing the recommended screening. Furthermore, the relatively high recurrence of BAV and TAA in at-risk siblings highlights the potential for improved health outcomes through increased screening and early detection. Developing standardized guidelines and promoting early cardiac screening in at-risk siblings while counseling families about hereditary risk for BAV and TAA may help improve uptake and optimize clinical management in at-risk pediatric patients.

Public health utility of cause of death data: applying empirical algorithms to improve data quality.

BACKGROUND: Accurate, comprehensive, cause-specific mortality estimates are crucial for informing public health decision making worldwide. Incorrectly or vaguely assigned deaths, defined as garbage-coded deaths, mask the true cause distribution. The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study has developed methods to create comparable, timely, cause-specific mortality estimates; an impactful data processing method is the reallocation of garbage-coded deaths to a plausible underlying cause of death. We identify the pattern of garbage-coded deaths in the world and present the methods used to determine their redistribution to generate more plausible cause of death assignments. METHODS: We describe the methods developed for the GBD 2019 study and subsequent iterations to redistribute garbage-coded deaths in vital registration data to plausible underlying causes. These methods include analysis of multiple cause data, negative correlation, impairment, and proportional redistribution. We classify garbage codes into classes according to the level of specificity of the reported cause of death (CoD) and capture trends in the global pattern of proportion of garbage-coded deaths, disaggregated by these classes, and the relationship between this proportion and the Socio-Demographic Index. We examine the relative importance of the top four garbage codes by age and sex and demonstrate the impact of redistribution on the annual GBD CoD rankings. RESULTS: The proportion of least-specific (class 1 and 2) garbage-coded deaths ranged from 3.7% of all vital registration deaths to 67.3% in 2015, and the age-standardized proportion had an overall negative association with the Socio-Demographic Index. When broken down by age and sex, the category for unspecified lower respiratory infections was responsible for nearly 30% of garbage-coded deaths in those under 1 year of age for both sexes, representing the largest proportion of garbage codes for that age group. We show how the cause distribution by number of deaths changes before and after redistribution for four countries: Brazil, the United States, Japan, and France, highlighting the necessity of accounting for garbage-coded deaths in the GBD. CONCLUSIONS: We provide a detailed description of redistribution methods developed for CoD data in the GBD; these methods represent an overall improvement in empiricism compared to past reliance on a priori knowledge.

Epidemiologic Changes of Scrub Typhus in China, 1952-2016.

Scrub typhus, a miteborne rickettsiosis, has emerged in many areas globally. We analyzed the incidence and spatial-temporal distribution of scrub typhus in China during 1952-1989 and 2006-2016 using national disease surveillance data. A total of 133,623 cases and 174 deaths were recorded. The average annual incidence was 0.13 cases/100,000 population during 1952-1989; incidence increased sharply from 0.09/100,000 population in 2006 to 1.60/100,000 population in 2016. The disease, historically endemic to southern China, has expanded to all the provinces across both rural and urban areas. We identified 3 distinct seasonal patterns nationwide; infections peaked in summer in the southwest, summer-autumn in the southeast, and autumn in the middle-east. Persons >40 years of age and in nonfarming occupations had a higher risk for death. The changing epidemiology of scrub typhus in China warrants an enhanced disease control and prevention program.

Responsiveness of sphingosine phosphate lyase insufficiency syndrome to vitamin B6 cofactor supplementation.

Sphingosine-1-phosphate (S1P) lyase is a vitamin B6-dependent enzyme that degrades sphingosine-1-phosphate in the final step of sphingolipid metabolism. In 2017, a new inherited disorder was described caused by mutations in SGPL1, which encodes sphingosine phosphate lyase (SPL). This condition is referred to as SPL insufficiency syndrome (SPLIS) or alternatively as nephrotic syndrome type 14 (NPHS14). Patients with SPLIS exhibit lymphopenia, nephrosis, adrenal insufficiency, and/or neurological defects. No targeted therapy for SPLIS has been reported. Vitamin B6 supplementation has therapeutic activity in some genetic diseases involving B6-dependent enzymes, a finding ascribed largely to the vitamin's chaperone function. We investigated whether B6 supplementation might have activity in SPLIS patients. We retrospectively monitored responses of disease biomarkers in patients supplemented with B6 and measured SPL activity and sphingolipids in B6-treated patient-derived fibroblasts. In two patients, disease biomarkers responded to B6 supplementation. S1P abundance and activity levels increased and sphingolipids decreased in response to B6. One responsive patient is homozygous for an SPL R222Q variant present in almost 30% of SPLIS patients. Molecular modeling suggests the variant distorts the dimer interface which could be overcome by cofactor supplementation. We demonstrate the first potential targeted therapy for SPLIS and suggest that 30% of SPLIS patients might respond to cofactor supplementation.

Differential Diagnoses and Their Implications of Dandy-Walker Malformation or Isolated Cisterna Magna, a Case Study: Baby V.

We explore the outcome of a fetus with a posterior fossa abnormality thought to be a Dandy-Walker malformation based on prenatal ultrasound imaging. The infant was later diagnosed by magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) as having an isolated cisterna magna. When assessing brain abnormalities, there is increased accuracy of prenatal MRI versus prenatal ultrasound. Accurate diagnosis of an infant is paramount so that an inheritance pattern, risk of recurrence, involvement of other systems, and a prognosis can be determined. Communicating with the family and supporting them with the correct information is then enhanced. It should be standard protocol to obtain a fetal MRI if an abnormal prenatal ultrasound of the brain is detected. Further research is needed to assess the accuracy of using MRI versus ultrasonography prenatally to diagnose posterior brain abnormalities.

The "3Ds" of Growing Kidney Organoids: Advances in Nephron Development, Disease Modeling, and Drug Screening.

A kidney organoid is a three-dimensional (3D) cellular aggregate grown from stem cells in vitro that undergoes self-organization, recapitulating aspects of normal renal development to produce nephron structures that resemble the native kidney organ. These miniature kidney-like structures can also be derived from primary patient cells and thus provide simplified context to observe how mutations in kidney-disease-associated genes affect organogenesis and physiological function. In the past several years, advances in kidney organoid technologies have achieved the formation of renal organoids with enhanced numbers of specialized cell types, less heterogeneity, and more architectural complexity. Microfluidic bioreactor culture devices, single-cell transcriptomics, and bioinformatic analyses have accelerated the development of more sophisticated renal organoids and tailored them to become increasingly amenable to high-throughput experimentation. However, many significant challenges remain in realizing the use of kidney organoids for renal replacement therapies. This review presents an overview of the renal organoid field and selected highlights of recent cutting-edge kidney organoid research with a focus on embryonic development, modeling renal disease, and personalized drug screening.

(Zebra)fishing for nephrogenesis genes.

Kidney disease is a devastating condition affecting millions of people worldwide, where over 100,000 patients in the United States alone remain waiting for a lifesaving organ transplant. Concomitant with a surge in personalized medicine, single-gene mutations, and polygenic risk alleles have been brought to the forefront as core causes of a spectrum of renal disorders. With the increasing prevalence of kidney disease, it is imperative to make substantial strides in the field of kidney genetics. Nephrons, the core functional units of the kidney, are epithelial tubules that act as gatekeepers of body homeostasis by absorbing and secreting ions, water, and small molecules to filter the blood. Each nephron contains a series of proximal and distal segments with explicit metabolic functions. The embryonic zebrafish provides an ideal platform to systematically dissect the genetic cues governing kidney development. Here, we review the use of zebrafish to discover nephrogenesis genes.

gldc Is Essential for Renal Progenitor Patterning during Kidney Development.

The glycine cleavage system (GCS) is a complex located on the mitochondrial membrane that is responsible for regulating glycine levels and contributing one-carbon units to folate metabolism. Congenital mutations in GCS components, such as glycine decarboxylase (gldc), cause an elevation in glycine levels and the rare disease, nonketotic hyperglycinemia (NKH). NKH patients suffer from pleiotropic symptoms including seizures, lethargy, mental retardation, and early death. Therefore, it is imperative to fully elucidate the pathological effects of gldc dysfunction and glycine accumulation during development. Here, we describe a zebrafish model of gldc deficiency that recapitulates phenotypes seen in humans and mice. gldc deficient embryos displayed impaired fluid homeostasis suggesting renal abnormalities, as well as aberrant craniofacial morphology and neural development defects. Whole mount in situ hybridization (WISH) revealed that gldc transcripts were highly expressed in the embryonic kidney, as seen in mouse and human repository data, and that formation of several nephron segments was disrupted in gldc deficient embryos, including proximal and distal tubule populations. These kidney defects were caused by alterations in renal progenitor populations, revealing that the proper function of Gldc is essential for the patterning of this organ. Additionally, further analysis of the urogenital tract revealed altered collecting duct and cloaca morphology in gldc deficient embryos. Finally, to gain insight into the molecular mechanisms underlying these disruptions, we examined the effects of exogenous glycine treatment and observed analogous renal and cloacal defects. Taken together, these studies indicate for the first time that gldc function serves an essential role in regulating renal progenitor development by modulating glycine levels.

All-cause and cause-specific mortality among people with severe mental illness in Brazil's public health system, 2000-15: a retrospective study.

BACKGROUND: People with severe mental illness have a mortality rate higher than the general population, living an average of 10-20 years less. Most studies of mortality among people with severe mental illness have occurred in high-income countries (HICs). We aimed to estimate all-cause and cause-specific relative risk (RR) and excess mortality rate (EMR) in a nationwide cohort of inpatients with severe mental illness compared with inpatients without severe mental illness in a middle income country, Brazil. METHODS: This national retrospective cohort study included all patients hospitalised through the Brazilian Public Health System (Sistema Único de Saúde [SUS]-Brazil) between Jan 1, 2000, and April 21, 2015. Probabilistic and deterministic record linkages integrated data from the Hospital Information System (Sistema de informações Hospitalares) and the National Mortality System (Sistema de Informação sobre Mortalidade). Follow-up duration was measured from the date of the patients' first hospitalisation until their death, or until April 21, 2015. Severe mental illness was defined as schizophrenia, bipolar disorder, or depressive disorder by ICD-10 codes used for the admission. RR and EMR were calculated with 95% CIs, comparing mortality among patients with severe mental illness with those with other diagnoses for patients aged 15 years and older. We redistributed deaths using the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study methodology if ill-defined causes of death were stated as an underlying cause. FINDINGS: From Jan 1, 2000, to April 21, 2015, 72 021 918 patients (31 510 035 [43·8%] recorded as male and 40 974 426 [56·9%] recorded as female; mean age 41·1 (SD 23·8) years) were admitted to hospital, with 749 720 patients (372 458 [49·7%] recorded as male and 378 670 [50·5%] as female) with severe mental illness. 5 102 055 patient deaths (2 862 383 [56·1%] recorded as male and 2 314 781 [45·4%] as female) and 67 485 deaths in patients with severe mental illness (39 099 [57·9%] recorded as male and 28 534 [42·3%] as female) were registered. The RR for all-cause mortality in patients with severe mental illness was 1·27 (95% CI 1·27-1·28) and the EMR was 2·52 (2·44-2·61) compared with non-psychiatric inpatients during the follow-up period. The all-cause RR was higher for females and for younger age groups; however, EMR was higher in those aged 30-59 years. The RR and EMR varied across the leading causes of death, sex, and age groups. We identified injuries (suicide, interpersonal violence, and road injuries) and cardiovascular disease (ischaemic heart disease) as having the highest EMR among those with severe mental illness. Data on ethnicity were not available. INTERPRETATION: In contrast to studies from HICs, inpatients with severe mental illness in Brazil had high RR for idiopathic epilepsy, tuberculosis, HIV, and acute hepatitis, and no significant difference in mortality from cancer compared with inpatients without severe mental illness. These identified causes should be addressed as a priority to maximise mortality prevention among people with severe mental illness, especially in a middle-income country like Brazil that has low investment in mental health. FUNDING: Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, Fundação de Amparo a Pesquisa do Estado de Minas Gerais, FAPEMIG, and the Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior-Brasil.

Predicting the environmental suitability and population at risk of podoconiosis in Africa.

Podoconiosis is a type of tropical lymphedema that causes massive swelling of the lower limbs. The disease is associated with both economic insecurity, due to long-term morbidity-related loss of productivity, and intense social stigma. The geographical distribution and burden of podoconiosis in Africa are uncertain. We applied statistical modelling to the most comprehensive database compiled to date to predict the environmental suitability of podoconiosis in the African continent. By combining climate and environmental data and overlaying population figures, we predicted the environmental suitability and human population at risk of podoconiosis in Africa. Environmental suitability for podoconiosis was predicted in 29 African countries. In the year 2020, the total population in areas suitable for podoconiosis is estimated at 114.5 million people, (95% uncertainty interval: 109.4-123.9) with 16.9 million in areas suitable for both lymphatic filariasis and podoconiosis. Of the total 5,712 implementation units (typically second administrative-level units, such as districts) defined by the World Health Organization in Africa, 1,655 (29.0%) were found to be environmentally suitable for podoconiosis. The majority of implementation units with high environmental suitability are located in Angola (80, 4.8%), Cameroon (170, 10.3%), the DRC (244, 14.7%), Ethiopia (495, 29.9%), Kenya (217, 13.1%), Uganda (116, 7.0%) and Tanzania (112, 6.8%). Of the 1,655 environmentally suitable implementation units, 960 (58.0%) require more detailed community-level mapping. Our estimates provide key evidence of the population at risk and geographical extent of podoconiosis in Africa, which will help decision-makers to better plan more integrated intervention programmes.

Mapping the global distribution of podoconiosis: Applying an evidence consensus approach.

BACKGROUND: Podoconiosis is a type of elephantiasis characterised by swelling of the lower legs. It is often confused with other causes of tropical lymphedema and its global distribution is uncertain. Here we synthesise the available information on the presence of podoconiosis to produce evidence consensus maps of its global geographical distribution. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We systematically searched available data on podoconiosis in SCOPUS and MEDLINE from inception, updated to 10 May, 2019, and identified observational and population-based studies reporting podoconiosis. To establish existence of podoconiosis, we used the number of cases reported in studies and prevalence data with geographical locations. We then developed an index to assess evidence quality and reliability, assigning each country an evidence consensus score. Using these summary scores, we then developed a contemporary global map of national-level podoconiosis status. There is evidence of podoconiosis in 17 countries (12 in Africa, three in Latin America, and two in Asia) and consensus on presence in six countries (all in Africa). We have identified countries where surveillance is required to further define the presence or absence of podoconiosis. We have highlighted areas where evidence is currently insufficient or conflicting, and from which more evidence is needed. CONCLUSION: The global distribution of podoconiosis is not clearly known; the disease extent and limits provided here inform the best contemporary map of the distribution of podoconiosis globally from available data. These results help identify surveillance needs, direct future mapping activities, and inform prevention plans and burden estimation of podoconiosis.

The current and future global distribution and population at risk of dengue.

Dengue is a mosquito-borne viral infection that has spread throughout the tropical world over the past 60 years and now affects over half the world's population. The geographical range of dengue is expected to further expand due to ongoing global phenomena including climate change and urbanization. We applied statistical mapping techniques to the most extensive database of case locations to date to predict global environmental suitability for the virus as of 2015. We then made use of climate, population and socioeconomic projections for the years 2020, 2050 and 2080 to project future changes in virus suitability and human population at risk. This study is the first to consider the spread of Aedes mosquito vectors to project dengue suitability. Our projections provide a key missing piece of evidence for the changing global threat of vector-borne disease and will help decision-makers worldwide to better prepare for and respond to future changes in dengue risk.

Publisher Correction: Mapping exclusive breastfeeding in Africa between 2000 and 2017.

An amendment to this paper has been published and can be accessed via a link at the top of the paper.

Identifying residual hotspots and mapping lower respiratory infection morbidity and mortality in African children from 2000 to 2017.

Lower respiratory infections (LRIs) are the leading cause of death in children under the age of 5, despite the existence of vaccines against many of their aetiologies. Furthermore, more than half of these deaths occur in Africa. Geospatial models can provide highly detailed estimates of trends subnationally, at the level where implementation of health policies has the greatest impact. We used Bayesian geostatistical modelling to estimate LRI incidence, prevalence and mortality in children under 5 subnationally in Africa for 2000-2017, using surveys covering 1.46 million children and 9,215,000 cases of LRI. Our model reveals large within-country variation in both health burden and its change over time. While reductions in childhood morbidity and mortality due to LRI were estimated for almost every country, we expose a cluster of residual high risk across seven countries, which averages 5.5 LRI deaths per 1,000 children per year. The preventable nature of the vast majority of LRI deaths mandates focused health system efforts in specific locations with the highest burden.

Mapping exclusive breastfeeding in Africa between 2000 and 2017.

Exclusive breastfeeding (EBF)-giving infants only breast-milk (and medications, oral rehydration salts and vitamins as needed) with no additional food or drink for their first six months of life-is one of the most effective strategies for preventing child mortality1-4. Despite these advantages, only 37% of infants under 6 months of age in Africa were exclusively breastfed in 20175, and the practice of EBF varies by population. Here, we present a fine-scale geospatial analysis of EBF prevalence and trends in 49 African countries from 2000-2017, providing policy-relevant administrative- and national-level estimates. Previous national-level analyses found that most countries will not meet the World Health Organization's Global Nutrition Target of 50% EBF prevalence by 20256. Our analyses show that even fewer will achieve this ambition in all subnational areas. Our estimates provide the ability to visualize subnational EBF variability and identify populations in need of additional breastfeeding support.

Publisher Correction: Past and future spread of the arbovirus vectors Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus.

This Article was mistakenly not made Open Access when originally published; this has now been amended, and information about the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License has been added into the 'Additional information' section.

Publisher Correction: Past and future spread of the arbovirus vectors Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus.

In the version of this Article originally published, the affiliation for author Catherine Linard was incorrectly stated as '6Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK'. The correct affiliation is '9Spatial Epidemiology Lab (SpELL), Universite Libre de Bruxelles, Brussels, Belgium'. The affiliation for author Hongjie Yu was also incorrectly stated as '11Department of Statistics, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, USA'. The correct affiliation is '15School of Health, Fudan University, Key Laboratory of Public Health Safety, Ministry of Education, Shanghai, China'. This has now been amended in all versions of the Article.

Past and future spread of the arbovirus vectors Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus.

The global population at risk from mosquito-borne diseases-including dengue, yellow fever, chikungunya and Zika-is expanding in concert with changes in the distribution of two key vectors: Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus. The distribution of these species is largely driven by both human movement and the presence of suitable climate. Using statistical mapping techniques, we show that human movement patterns explain the spread of both species in Europe and the United States following their introduction. We find that the spread of Ae. aegypti is characterized by long distance importations, while Ae. albopictus has expanded more along the fringes of its distribution. We describe these processes and predict the future distributions of both species in response to accelerating urbanization, connectivity and climate change. Global surveillance and control efforts that aim to mitigate the spread of chikungunya, dengue, yellow fever and Zika viruses must consider the so far unabated spread of these mosquitos. Our maps and predictions offer an opportunity to strategically target surveillance and control programmes and thereby augment efforts to reduce arbovirus burden in human populations globally.