Predictors of mortality shortly after entering a long-term care facility.

OBJECTIVE: Moving into a long-term care facility (LTCF) requires substantial personal, societal and financial investment. Identifying those at high risk of short-term mortality after LTCF entry can help with care planning and risk factor management. This study aimed to: (i) examine individual-, facility-, medication-, system- and healthcare-related predictors for 90-day mortality at entry into an LTCF and (ii) create risk profiles for this outcome. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study using data from the Registry of Senior Australians. SUBJECTS: Individuals aged ≥ 65 years old with first-time permanent entry into an LTCF in three Australian states between 01 January 2013 and 31 December 2016. METHODS: A prediction model for 90-day mortality was developed using Cox regression with the purposeful variable selection approach. Individual-, medication-, system- and healthcare-related factors known at entry into an LTCF were examined as predictors. Harrell's C-index assessed the predictive ability of our risk models. RESULTS: 116,192 individuals who entered 1,967 facilities, of which 9.4% (N = 10,910) died within 90 days, were studied. We identified 51 predictors of mortality, five of which were effect modifiers. The strongest predictors included activities of daily living category (hazard ratio [HR] = 5.41, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 4.99-5.88 for high vs low), high level of complex health conditions (HR = 1.67, 95% CI = 1.58-1.77 for high vs low), several medication classes and male sex (HR = 1.59, 95% CI = 1.53-1.65). The model out-of-sample Harrell's C-index was 0.773. CONCLUSIONS: Our mortality prediction model, which includes several strongly associated factors, can moderately well identify individuals at high risk of mortality upon LTCF entry.

Primary, allied health, selected specialists, and mental health service utilisation by home care recipients in Australia before and after accessing the care, 2017-2019.

OBJECTIVES: To examine changes in primary, allied health, selected specialists, and mental health service utilisation by older people in the year before and after accessing home care package (HCP) services. METHODS: A retrospective cohort study using the Registry of Senior Australians Historical National Cohort (≥ 65 years old), including individuals accessing HCP services between 2017 and 2019 (N = 109,558), was conducted. The utilisation of general practice (GP) attendances, health assessments, chronic disease management plans, allied health services, geriatric, pain, palliative, and mental health services, subsidised by the Australian Government Medicare Benefits Schedule, was assessed in the 12 months before and after HCP access, stratified by HCP level (1-2 vs. 3-4, i.e., lower vs. higher care needs). Relative changes in service utilisation 12 months before and after HCP access were estimated using adjusted risk ratios (aRR) from Generalised Estimating Equation Poisson models. RESULTS: Utilisation of health assessments (7-10.2%), chronic disease management plans (19.7-28.2%), and geriatric, pain, palliative, and mental health services (all ≤ 2.5%) remained low, before and after HCP access. Compared to 12 months prior to HCP access, 12 months after, GP after-hours attendances increased (HCP 1-2 from 6.95 to 7.5%, aRR = 1.07, 95% CI 1.03-1.11; HCP 3-4 from 7.76 to 9.32%, aRR = 1.20, 95%CI 1.13-1.28) and allied health services decreased (HCP 1-2 from 34.8 to 30.7%, aRR = 0.88, 95%CI 0.87-0.90; HCP levels 3-4 from 30.5 to 24.3%, aRR = 0.80, 95%CI 0.77-0.82). CONCLUSIONS: Most MBS subsidised preventive, management and specialist services are underutilised by older people, both before and after HCP access and small changes are observed after they access HCP.

Death by suicide among aged care recipients in Australia 2008-2017.

OBJECTIVE: To characterize the features of aged care users who died by suicide and examine the use of mental health services and psychopharmacotherapy in the year before death. DESIGN: Population-based, retrospective exploratory study. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: Individuals who died while accessing or waiting for permanent residential aged care (PRAC) or home care packages in Australia between 2008 and 2017. MEASUREMENTS: Linked datasets describing aged care use, date and cause of death, health care use, medication use, and state-based hospital data collections. RESULTS: Of 532,507 people who died, 354 (0.07%) died by suicide, including 81 receiving a home care package (0.17% of all home care package deaths), 129 in PRAC (0.03% of all deaths in PRAC), and 144 approved for but awaiting care (0.23% of all deaths while awaiting care). Factors associated with death by suicide compared to death by another cause were male sex, having a mental health condition, not having dementia, less frailty, and a hospitalization for self-injury in the year before death. Among those who were awaiting care, being born outside Australia, living alone, and not having a carer were associated with death by suicide. Those who died by suicide more often accessed Government-subsidized mental health services in the year before their death than those who died by another cause. CONCLUSIONS: Older men, those with diagnosed mental health conditions, those living alone and without an informal carer, and those hospitalized for self-injury are key targets for suicide prevention efforts.

Quality and safety in residential aged care: an evaluation of a national quality indicator programme.

BACKGROUND: In Australia, 243 000 individuals live in approximately 2700 residential aged care facilities yearly. In 2019, a National Aged Care Mandatory Quality Indicator programme (QI programme) was implemented to monitor the quality and safety of care in facilities. AIM: To examine the validity of the QI programme indicators using explicit measure review criteria. METHODS: The QI programme manual and reports were reviewed. A modified American College of Physicians Measure Review Criteria was employed to examine the QI programme's eight indicators. Five authors rated each indicator on importance, appropriateness, clinical evidence, specifications and feasibility using a nine-point scale. A median score of 1-3 was considered to not meet criteria, 4-6 to meet some criteria and 7-9 to meet criteria. RESULTS: All indicators, except polypharmacy, met criteria (median scores = 7-9) for importance, appropriateness and clinical evidence. Polypharmacy met some criteria for importance (median = 6, range 2-8), appropriateness (median = 5, range 2-8) and clinical evidence (median = 6, range 3-8). Pressure injury, physical restraints, significant unplanned weight loss, consecutive unplanned weight loss, falls and polypharmacy indicators met some criteria for specifications validity (all median scores = 5) and feasibility and applicability (median scores = 4 to 6). Antipsychotic use and falls resulting in major injury met some criteria for specifications (median = 6-7, range 4-8) and met criteria for feasibility and applicability (median = 7, range 4-8). CONCLUSIONS: Australia's National QI programme is a major stride towards a culture of quality promotion, improvement and transparency. Measures' specifications, feasibility and applicability could be improved to ensure the programme delivers on its intended purposes.

Cohort profile: GRACE - a residential aged care cohort examining factors influencing antimicrobial resistance carriage.

BACKGROUND: The emergence of antimicrobial-resistant bacteria represents a considerable threat to human health, particularly for vulnerable populations such as those living in residential aged care. However, antimicrobial resistance carriage and modes of transmission remain incompletely understood. The Generating evidence on antimicrobial Resistance in the Aged Care Environment (GRACE) study was established to determine principal risk factors of antimicrobial resistance carriage and transmission in residential aged care facilities (RACFs). This article describes the cohort characteristics, national representation, and planned analyses for this study. METHODS: Between March 2019 and March 2020, 279 participants were recruited from five South Australian RACFs. The median age was 88.6 years, the median period in residence was 681 days, and 71.7% were female. A dementia diagnosis was recorded in 54.5% and more than two thirds had moderate to severe cognitive impairment (68.8%). 61% had received at least one course of antibiotics in the 12 months prior to enrolment. RESULTS: To investigate the representation of the GRACE cohort to Australians in residential aged care, its characteristics were compared to a subset of the historical cohort of the Registry of Senior Australians (ROSA). This included 142,923 individuals who were permanent residents of RACFs on June 30th, 2017. GRACE and ROSA cohorts were similar in age, sex, and duration of residential care, prevalence of health conditions, and recorded dementia diagnoses. Differences were observed in care requirements and antibiotic exposure (both higher for GRACE participants). GRACE participants had fewer hospital visits compared to the ROSA cohort, and a smaller proportion were prescribed psycholeptic medications. CONCLUSIONS: We have assembled a cohort of aged care residents that is representative of the Australian aged care population, and which provides a basis for future analyses. Metagenomic data isolated from participants and built environments will be used to determine microbiome and resistome characteristics of an individual and the facility. Individual and facility risk exposures will be aligned with metagenomic data to identify principal determinants for antimicrobial resistance carriage. Ultimately, this analysis will inform measures aimed at reducing the emergence and spread of antimicrobial resistant pathogens in this high-risk population.

An eye to the future: Acute and long-term neuro-ophthalmological and neurological complications of COVID-19.

COVID-19 has had a significant impact on the global population and has produced compelling evidence of non-pulmonary organ dysfunction, including the nervous system. It is vital that specialists in ophthalmology and neurology are informed of the potential complications of COVID-19 and gain a deeper understanding of how COVID-19 can cause diseases of the nervous system. In this review we detail four possible mechanisms by which COVID-19 infection may result in neurological or neuro-ophthalmological complications: (1) Toxic and metabolic effects of severe pulmonary COVID-19 disease on the neural axis including hypoxia and the systemic hyper-inflammatory state, (2) endothelial dysfunction, (3) dysimmune responses directed again the neuroaxis, and (4) direct neuro-invasion and injury by the virus itself. We explore the pathological evidence for each of these and how they may link to neuro-ophthalmological disorders. Finally, we explore the evidence for long-term neurological and neuro-ophthalmological complications of COVID-19, with a focus on neurodegeneration.

Ear microbiota and middle ear disease: a longitudinal pilot study of Aboriginal children in a remote south Australian setting.

BACKGROUND: Otitis media (OM) is a major disease burden in Australian Aboriginal children, contributing to serious long-term health outcomes. We report a pilot analysis of OM in children attending an outreach ear and hearing clinic in a remote south Australian community over a two-year period. Our study focuses on longitudinal relationships between ear canal microbiota characteristics with nasopharyngeal microbiota, and clinical and treatment variables. RESULTS: Middle ear health status were assessed in 19 children (aged 3 months to 8 years) presenting in remote western South Australia and medical interventions were recorded. Over the two-year study period, chronic suppurative OM was diagnosed at least once in 7 children (37%), acute OM with perforation in 4 children (21%), OM with effusion in 11 children (58%), while only 1 child had no ear disease. Microbiota analysis of 19 children (51 sets of left and right ear canal swabs and nasopharyngeal swabs) revealed a core group of bacterial taxa that included Corynebacterium, Alloiococcus, Staphylococcus, Haemophilus, Turicella, Streptococcus, and Pseudomonas. Within-subject microbiota similarity (between ears) was significantly greater than inter-subject similarity, regardless of differences in ear disease (p = 0.0006). Longitudinal analysis revealed changes in diagnosis to be associated with more pronounced changes in microbiota characteristics, irrespective of time interval. Ear microbiota characteristics differed significantly according to diagnosis (P (perm) = 0.0001). Diagnoses featuring inflammation with tympanic membrane perforation clustering separately to those in which the tympanic membrane was intact, and characterised by increased Proteobacteria, particularly Haemophilus influenzae, Moraxella catarrhalis, and Oligella. While nasopharyngeal microbiota differed significantly in composition to ear microbiota (P (perm) = 0.0001), inter-site similarity was significantly greater in subjects with perforated tympanic membranes, a relationship that was associated with the relative abundance of H. influenzae in ear samples (rs = - 0.71, p = 0.0003). Longitudinal changes in ear microbiology reflected changes in clinical signs and treatment. CONCLUSIONS: Children attending the ear and hearing clinic in a remote Aboriginal community present with a broad spectrum of OM conditions and severities, consistent with other remote Aboriginal communities. Ear microbiota characteristics align with OM diagnosis and change with disease course. Nasopharyngeal microbiota characteristics are consistent with the contribution of acute upper respiratory infection to OM aetiology.

Provision of a comprehensive medicines review is associated with lower mortality risk for residents of aged care facilities: a retrospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: no studies have examined the impact of residential medication management review (RMMR, a 24-year government subsidised comprehensive medicines review program) in Australian residential aged care facilities (RACFs) on hospitalisation or mortality. OBJECTIVE: to examine associations between RMMR provision in the 6-12 months after RACF entry and the 12-month risk of hospitalisation and mortality among older Australians in RACFs. DESIGN: retrospective cohort study. SUBJECTS: individuals aged 65-105 years taking at least one medicine, who entered an RACF in three Australian states between 1 January 2012 and 31 December 2015 and spent at least 6 months in the RACF (n = 57,719). METHODS: Cox regression models estimated adjusted hazard ratios (aHRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for associations between RMMR provision and mortality. Adjusted subdistribution hazard ratios were estimated for associations between RMMR provision and next (i) emergency department (ED) presentation or unplanned hospitalisation or (ii) fall-related ED presentation or hospitalisation. RESULTS: there were 12,603 (21.8%) individuals who received an RMMR within 6-12 months of RACF entry, of whom 22.2% (95%CI 21.4-22.9) died during follow-up, compared with 23.3% (95%CI 22.9-23.7) of unexposed individuals. RMMR provision was associated with a lower risk of death due to any cause over 12-months (aHR 0.96, 95%CI 0.91-0.99), but was not associated with ED presentations or hospitalisations for unplanned events or falls. CONCLUSIONS: provision of an RMMR in the 6-12 months after RACF entry is associated with a 4.4% lower mortality risk over 12-months but was not associated with changes in hospitalisations for unplanned events or falls.

Targeted reduction of airborne viral transmission risk in long-term residential aged care.

COVID-19 has demonstrated the devastating consequences of the rapid spread of an airborne virus in residential aged care. We report the use of CO2-based ventilation assessment to empirically identify potential 'super-spreader' zones within an aged care facility, and determine the efficacy of rapidly implemented, inexpensive, risk reduction measures.

Impact of relational continuity of primary care in aged care: a systematic review.

BACKGROUND: Greater continuity of care has been associated with lower hospital admissions and patient mortality. This systematic review aims to examine the impact of relational continuity between primary care professionals and older people receiving aged care services, in residential or home care settings, on health care resource use and person-centred outcomes. METHODS: Systematic review of five databases, four trial registries and three grey literature sources to October 2020. Included studies (a) aimed to increase relational continuity with a primary care professional, (b) focused on older people receiving aged care services (c) included a comparator and (d) reported outcomes of health care resource use, quality of life, activities of daily living, mortality, falls or satisfaction. Cochrane Collaboration or Joanna Briggs Institute criteria were used to assess risk of bias and GRADE criteria to rate confidence in evidence and conclusions. RESULTS: Heterogeneity in study cohorts, settings and outcome measurement in the five included studies (one randomised) precluded meta-analysis. None examined relational continuity exclusively with non-physician providers. Higher relational continuity with a primary care physician probably reduces hospital admissions (moderate certainty evidence; high versus low continuity hazard ratio (HR) 0.94; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.92-0.96, n = 178,686; incidence rate ratio (IRR) 0.99, 95%CI 0.76-1.27, n = 246) and emergency department (ED) presentations (moderate certainty evidence; high versus low continuity HR 0.90, 95%CI 0.89-0.92, n = 178,686; IRR 0.91, 95%CI 0.72-1.15, n = 246) for older community-dwelling aged care recipients. The benefit of providing on-site primary care for relational continuity in residential settings is uncertain (low certainty evidence, 2 studies, n = 2,468 plus 15 care homes); whilst there are probably lower hospitalisations and may be fewer ED presentations, there may also be an increase in reported mortality and falls. The benefit of general practitioners' visits during hospital admission is uncertain (very low certainty evidence, 1 study, n = 335). CONCLUSION: Greater relational continuity with a primary care physician probably reduces hospitalisations and ED presentations for community-dwelling aged care recipients, thus policy initiatives that increase continuity may have cost offsets. Further studies of approaches to increase relational continuity of primary care within aged care, particularly in residential settings, are needed. REVIEW REGISTRATION: CRD42021215698.

Medicines use before and after comprehensive medicines review among residents of long-term care facilities: a retrospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Residential Medication Management Review (RMMR) is a subsidized comprehensive medicines review program for individuals in Australian residential aged care facilities (RACFs). This study examined weekly trends in medicines use in the four months before and after an RMMR and among a comparison group of residents who did not receive an RMMR. METHODS: This retrospective cohort study included individuals aged 65 to 105 years who first entered permanent care between 1/1/2012 and 31/12/2016 in South Australia, Victoria, or New South Wales, and were taking at least one medicine. Individuals with an RMMR within 12 months of RACF entry were classified into one of three groups: (i) RMMR within 0 to 3 months, (ii) 3 to 6 months, or (iii) within 6 to 12 months of RACF entry. Individuals without RMMRs were included in the comparison group. Weekly trends in the number of defined daily doses per 1000 days were determined in the four months before and after the RMMR (or assigned index date in the comparison group) for 14 medicine classes. RESULTS: 113909 individuals from 1979 RACFs were included, of whom 55021 received an RMMR. Across all three periods examined, decreased use of statins and proton pump inhibitors was observed post-RMMR in comparison to those without RMMRs. Decreases in calcium channel blockers, benzodiazepines/zopiclone, and antidepressants were observed following RMMR provision in the 3-6 and 6-12 months after RACF entry. Negligible changes in antipsychotic use were also observed following an RMMR in the 6-12 months after RACF entry by comparison to those without RMMRs. No changes in use of opioids, ACE inhibitors/sartans, beta blockers, loop diuretics, oral anticoagulants, or medicines for osteoporosis, diabetes or the cognitive symptoms of dementia were observed post-RMMR. CONCLUSIONS: For six of the 14 medicine classes investigated, modest changes in weekly trends in use were observed after the provision of an RMMR in the 6-12 months after RACF entry compared to those without RMMRs. Findings suggest that activities such as medicines reconciliation may be prioritized when an RMMR is provided on RACF entry, with deprescribing more likely after an RMMR the longer a resident has been in the RACF.

The gut microbiome regulates host glucose homeostasis via peripheral serotonin.

The gut microbiome is an established regulator of aspects of host metabolism, such as glucose handling. Despite the known impacts of the gut microbiota on host glucose homeostasis, the underlying mechanisms are unknown. The gut microbiome is also a potent mediator of gut-derived serotonin synthesis, and this peripheral source of serotonin is itself a regulator of glucose homeostasis. Here, we determined whether the gut microbiome influences glucose homeostasis through effects on gut-derived serotonin. Using both pharmacological inhibition and genetic deletion of gut-derived serotonin synthesis, we find that the improvements in host glucose handling caused by antibiotic-induced changes in microbiota composition are dependent on the synthesis of peripheral serotonin.

National Trends in Antibiotic Use in Australian Residential Aged Care Facilities, 2005-2016.

BACKGROUND: Understanding current patterns of antibiotic use in residential aged care facilities (RACFs) is essential to inform stewardship activities, but limited utilization data exist. This study examined changes in prevalence and consumption of antibiotics in Australian RACFs between 2005-2006 and 2015-2016. METHODS: This population-based, repeated cross-sectional analysis included all long-term permanent residents of Australian RACFs between July 2005 and June 2016 who were aged ≥ 65 years. The yearly prevalence rate of antibiotic use and number of defined daily doses (DDDs) of systemic antibiotics per 1000 resident-days were determined annually from linked pharmaceutical claims data. Trends were assessed using ordinary least squares regression. RESULTS: This study included 502 752 residents from 3218 RACFs, with 424.9 million resident-days analyzed. Antibiotics were dispensed on 5 608 126 occasions during the study period, of which 88% were for oral use. Cefalexin, amoxicillin-clavulanic acid, and trimethoprim were the most commonly dispensed antibiotics. The annual prevalence of antibiotic use increased from 63.8% (95% confidence interval [CI], 63.3%-64.4%) to 70.3% (95% CI, 69.9%-70.7%) between 2005-2006 and 2015-2016 (0.8% average annual increase, P < .001). There was a 39% relative increase in total consumption of systemic antibiotics, with utilization increasing from 67.6 to 93.8 DDDs/1000 resident-days during the study period (average annual increase of 2.8 DDDs/1000 resident-days, P < .001). CONCLUSIONS: This nationwide study showed substantial increases in both prevalence of use and total consumption of antibiotics in Australian RACFs between 2005 and 2016. The increasingly widespread use of antibiotics in Australian RACFs is concerning and points to a need for enhanced efforts to optimize antibiotic use in this setting.

Contribution of facility level factors to variation in antibiotic use in long-term care facilities: a national cohort study.

OBJECTIVES: To examine national variation in systemic antibiotic use in long-term care facilities (LTCFs) and identify facility characteristics associated with antibiotic utilization. METHODS: This retrospective cohort study included 312 375 residents of 2536 Australian LTCFs between 2011 and 2016. LTCFs were categorized as low, medium or high antibiotic use facilities according to tertiles of DDDs of systemic antibiotics dispensed per 1000 resident-days. Multivariable logistic regression estimated the associations between facility characteristics (ownership, size, location, medication quality indicator performance, prevalence of after-hours medical practitioner services) and antibiotic use (low versus high). RESULTS: LTCFs in the lowest and highest antibiotic use categories received a median of 54.3 (IQR 46.5-60.5) and 106.1 (IQR 95.9-122.3) DDDs/1000 resident-days, respectively. Compared with not-for-profit LTCFs in major cities, government-owned non-metropolitan LTCFs were less likely to experience high antibiotic use [adjusted OR (aOR) 0.47, 95% CI 0.24-0.91]. LTCFs with 69-99 residents were less likely to experience high antibiotic use (aOR 0.69, 95% CI 0.49-0.97) than those with 25-47 residents annually. Greater prevalence of medical practitioner services accessed after-hours was associated with high antibiotic use [aOR 1.10 (per 10% increase in after-hours services), 95% CI 1.01-1.21]. South Australian LTCFs (aOR 2.17, 95% CI 1.38-3.39) were more likely, while Queensland (0.43, 95% CI 0.30-0.62) and Western Australian (aOR 0.34, 95% CI 0.21-0.57) LTCFs were less likely to experience high antibiotic use than New South Wales LTCFs. CONCLUSIONS: Considerable facility level variation in systemic antibiotic use was observed across Australian LTCFs. Identification of facility characteristics associated with antibiotic use provides a basis for targeted stewardship initiatives.

Conventional myelosuppressive chemotherapy for non-haematological malignancy disrupts the intestinal microbiome.

BACKGROUND: The gut microbiota influences many aspects of host physiology, including immune regulation, and is predictive of outcomes in cancer patients. However, whether conventional myelosuppressive chemotherapy affects the gut microbiota in humans with non-haematological malignancy, independent of antibiotic exposure, is unknown. METHODS: Faecal samples from 19 participants with non-haematological malignancy, who were receiving conventional chemotherapy regimens but not antibiotics, were examined prior to chemotherapy, 7-12 days after chemotherapy, and at the end of the first cycle of treatment. Gut microbiota diversity and composition was determined by 16S rRNA gene amplicon sequencing. RESULTS: Compared to pre-chemotherapy samples, samples collected 7-12 days following chemotherapy exhibited increased richness (mean 120 observed species ± SD 38 vs 134 ± 40; p = 0.007) and diversity (Shannon diversity: mean 6.4 ± 0.43 vs 6.6 ± 0.41; p = 0.02). Composition was significantly altered, with a significant decrease in the relative abundance of gram-positive bacteria in the phylum Firmicutes (pre-chemotherapy median relative abundance [IQR] 0.78 [0.11] vs 0.75 [0.11]; p = 0.003), and an increase in the relative abundance of gram-negative bacteria (Bacteroidetes: median [IQR] 0.16 [0.13] vs 0.21 [0.13]; p = 0.01 and Proteobacteria: 0.015 [0.018] vs 0.03 [0.03]; p = 0.02). Differences in microbiota characteristics from baseline were no longer significant at the end of the chemotherapy cycle. CONCLUSIONS: Conventional chemotherapy results in significant changes in gut microbiota characteristics during the period of predicted myelosuppression post-chemotherapy. Further study is indicated to link microbiome changes during chemotherapy to clinical outcomes.

General practitioner conduct of clinical services representing comprehensive geriatric assessment is associated with lower risk of mortality in older Australians receiving home care packages.

OBJECTIVES: The purpose of this paper is to investigate the utilisation of general practice Medicare Benefit Schedule (MBS) services aligned to Comprehensive Geriatric Assessment (CGA) within 6 months of an aged care eligibility assessment and its effects on mortality and transition to permanent residential aged care (PRAC). DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study from the Historical Cohort of the Registry of Senior Australians. SETTING: Community. PARTICIPANTS: In total, 69,171 Individuals (aged 75+) receiving home care packages (HCPs) between 2011 and 2015. OUTCOME MEASURES: Mortality and transition to PRAC. RESULTS: The claims for a management plan with team care arrangement (TCA) within 3 months of the health assessment (i.e. CGA) was present in 5% and associated with 14% lower mortality (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 95%CI = 0.86, 0.80-0.93) compared to no claims, lower than that seen with partial CGA which was either health assessment claims only 7.0% (aHR, 95%CI = 0.93, 0.89-0.97) or management plan coupled with TCA claims only 9.0% (aHR, 95%CI = 0.91, 0.89-0.97). This pattern was seen in those frailer but not in those where the frailty index score was <0.21. Claims for management plans coupled with TCAs alone were associated with a 10% lower transition to PRAC (asHR, 95%CI = 0.90, 0.85-0.96) in those with FI score < 0.21 while this estimate was not significant in individuals with FI score ≥ 0.21. CONCLUSION: It appears the conduct of a combination of interventions considered to be components of the CGA by GPs was associated with a lower risk of mortality that no claims or partial conduct of CGA.

Utilisation of general practice health assessments around an aged care assessment is associated with lower mortality risk in older Australians.

OBJECTIVE: (i) to describe the general practitioner utilisation of health assessments, management plans, coordination of team care arrangements and medication review item numbers within 6 months of an aged care eligibility assessment for home care packages (HCP) and (ii) investigate the impact of health assessments on the risk of mortality and entry into permanent residential aged care (PRAC) of individuals accessing HCP. DESIGN AND SETTING: retrospective cohort study utilising data from the Registry of Senior Australians (ROSA) was conducted. SUBJECTS: 75,172 individuals aged ≥75 years who received HCP between 2011 and 2015. OUTCOME MEASURE: for objective 1: the use of comprehensive assessments (Medicare Benefits Schedule (MBS) items 705 or 707), management plans (MBS 721), coordination of team care arrangements (MBS 723), and medication reviews (MBS 900). For objective 2: time to death and entry into PRAC. RESULTS: of the 75,172 individuals, 28.2% (95% confidence interval (CI): 27.8-8.5%) had comprehensive assessments, 36.7% (95% CI: 36.3-37.0%) had management plans, 33.0% (95% CI: 32.7-33.3%) received coordination of team care arrangements and 5.4% (95% CI: 5.2-5.5%) had medication reviews. Individuals with a comprehensive assessment had a 5% lower risk of mortality (adjusted hazard ratio (aHR), 95% CI = 0.95, 0.92-0.98) but 5% higher risk of transition to PRAC (adjusted subdistribution HRs, 95% CI = 1.05, 1.02-1.08) compared to those who did not have these services. CONCLUSION: the utilisation of health assessments was associated with a lower risk of mortality. There is an opportunity for increased use of item numbers in frailer individuals.

Health status and healthcare trends of individuals accessing Australian aged care programmes over a decade: the Registry of Senior Australians historical cohort.

BACKGROUND: Understanding the health profile, service and medicine use of Australians in the aged care sector will help inform appropriate service provision for our ageing population. AIMS: To examine the 2006-2015 trends in (i) comorbidities and frailty of individuals accessing aged care, and (ii) health services, medicine use and mortality after entry into long-term care. METHODS: Cross-sectional and population-based trend analyses were conducted using the Registry of Senior Australians. RESULTS: From 2006 to 2015, 509 944 individuals accessed permanent residential care, 206 394 home care, 283 014 respite and 124 943 transition care. Over this time, the proportion of individuals accessing permanent residential care with high frailty scores (≥0.3) increased (19.7-49.7%), as did the proportion with 5-9 comorbidities (46.4-54.5%), with similar trends observed for those accessing other services. The median number of medicines dispensed in the year after entering permanent residential care increased from 9 (interquartile range (IQR) 6-12) to 10 (IQR 7-14), while remaining stable in home care (2006: 9, IQR 5-12, 2015: 9, IQR 6-13). Short-term (within 100 days) mortality in those accessing permanent care was higher in 2006 (15.6%, 95% CI 15.2-16.0) than 2015 (14.6%, 95% CI 14.3-14.9). Longer term (101-1095 days, 2006: 44.3%, 95% CI 43.7-45.0, 2015: 46.4%, 95% CI 45.8-46.9) mortality was higher in 2015 compared to 2006. Mortality in individuals accessing home care did not change. CONCLUSION: The health of older Australians accessing aged care programmes has declined while frailty increased, with an increasing use of medicine and worse long-term mortality in some. Funding and care models need to adapt to this changing profile.

The risk of fall-related hospitalisations at entry into permanent residential aged care.

BACKGROUND: Entering permanent residential aged care (PRAC) is a vulnerable time for individuals. While falls risk assessment tools exist, these have not leveraged routinely collected and integrated information from the Australian aged and health care sectors. Our study examined individual, system, medication, and health care related factors at PRAC entry that are predictors of fall-related hospitalisations and developed a risk assessment tool using integrated aged and health care data. METHODS: A retrospective cohort study was conducted on N = 32,316 individuals ≥65 years old who entered a PRAC facility (01/01/2009-31/12/2016). Fall-related hospitalisations within 90 or 365 days were the outcomes of interest. Individual, system, medication, and health care-related factors were examined as predictors. Risk prediction models were developed using elastic nets penalised regression and Fine and Gray models. Area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUC) assessed model discrimination. RESULTS: 64.2% (N = 20,757) of the cohort were women and the median age was 85 years old (interquartile range 80-89). After PRAC entry, 3.7% (N = 1209) had a fall-related hospitalisation within 90 days and 9.8% (N = 3156) within 365 days. Twenty variables contributed to fall-related hospitalisation prediction within 90 days and the strongest predictors included fracture history (sub-distribution hazard ratio (sHR) = 1.87, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.63-2.15), falls history (sHR = 1.41, 95%CI 1.21-2.15), and dementia (sHR = 1.39, 95%CI 1.22-1.57). Twenty-seven predictors of fall-related hospitalisation within 365 days were identified, the strongest predictors included dementia (sHR = 1.36, 95%CI 1.24-1.50), history of falls (sHR = 1.30, 95%CI 1.20-1.42) and fractures (sHR = 1.28, 95%CI 1.15-1.41). The risk prediction models had an AUC of 0.71 (95%CI 0.68-0.74) for fall-related hospitalisations within 90 days and 0.64 (95%CI 0.62-0.67) for within 365 days. CONCLUSION: Routinely collected aged and health care data, when integrated at a clear point of action such as entry into PRAC, can identify residents at risk of fall-related hospitalisations, providing an opportunity for better targeting risk mitigation strategies.

Initiation of antipsychotics after moving to residential aged care facilities and mortality: a national cohort study.

BACKGROUND: There is a high burden of antipsychotic use in residential aged care facilities (RACFs) and there is concern regarding potential inappropriate prescribing of antipsychotics in response to mild behavioural symptoms. Antipsychotic use has been associated with a higher risk of mortality in community-dwelling older adults with dementia, but few studies have examined associations upon RACF entry. AIMS: To examine associations between incident antipsychotic use and risk of mortality for people with and without diagnosed dementia in RACFs. METHODS: A retrospective cohort study, employing a new-user design (individuals did not receive an antipsychotic 6 months before enrolment) of 265,820 people who accessed RACFs in Australia between 1/4/2008 and 30/6/2015 was conducted. Cox regression models were used to examine adjusted associations between antipsychotic use in the first 100 days of RACF entry and mortality. RESULTS: In the 100 days after entering care, 29,455 residents (11.1%) were dispensed an antipsychotic. 180,956 (68.1%) residents died [38,249 (14.4%) were related to cerebrovascular causes] over a median 2.1 years (interquartile range 1.0-3.6) follow-up. Of the residents included, 119,665 (45.0%) had a diagnosis of dementia. Incident antipsychotic use was associated with higher risk of mortality in residents with dementia (adjusted hazard ratio 1.20, 95% confidence interval 1.18-1.22) and without dementia (1.28, 1.24-1.31). CONCLUSION: Initiation of antipsychotics after moving to RACFs is associated with a higher risk of mortality. Careful consideration of the potential benefits and harms should be given when starting a new prescription for antipsychotics for people moving to RACFs.