Evaluating Potential Distribution of High-Risk Aquatic Invasive Species in the Water Garden and Aquarium Trade at a Global Scale Based on Current Established Populations.

Aquatic non-native invasive species are commonly traded in the worldwide water garden and aquarium markets, and some of these species pose major threats to the economy, the environment, and human health. Understanding the potential suitable habitat for these species at a global scale and at regional scales can inform risk assessments and predict future potential establishment. Typically, global habitat suitability models are fit for freshwater species with only climate variables, which provides little information about suitable terrestrial conditions for aquatic species. Remotely sensed data including topography and land cover data have the potential to improve our understanding of suitable habitat for aquatic species. In this study, we fit species distribution models using five different model algorithms for three non-native aquatic invasive species with bioclimatic, topographic, and remotely sensed covariates to evaluate potential suitable habitat beyond simple climate matches. The species examined included a frog (Xenopus laevis), toad (Bombina orientalis), and snail (Pomacea spp.). Using a unique modeling approach for each species including background point selection based on known established populations resulted in robust ensemble habitat suitability models. All models for all species had test area under the receiver operating characteristic curve values greater than 0.70 and percent correctly classified values greater than 0.65. Importantly, we employed multivariate environmental similarity surface maps to evaluate potential extrapolation beyond observed conditions when applying models globally. These global models provide necessary forecasts of where these aquatic invasive species have the potential for establishment outside their native range, a key component in risk analyses.

Integrating subsistence practice and species distribution modeling: assessing invasive elodea's potential impact on Native Alaskan subsistence of Chinook salmon and whitefish.

Alaska has one of the most rapidly changing climates on earth and is experiencing an accelerated rate of human disturbance, including resource extraction and transportation infrastructure development. Combined, these factors increase the state's vulnerability to biological invasion, which can have acute negative impacts on ecological integrity and subsistence practices. Of growing concern is the spread of Alaska's first documented freshwater aquatic invasive plant Elodea spp. (elodea). In this study, we modeled the suitable habitat of elodea using global and state-specific species occurrence records and environmental variables, in concert with an ensemble of model algorithms. Furthermore, we sought to incorporate local subsistence concerns by using Native Alaskan knowledge and available statewide subsistence harvest data to assess the potential threat posed by elodea to Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) and whitefish (Coregonus nelsonii) subsistence. State models were applied to future climate (2040-2059) using five general circulation models best suited for Alaska. Model evaluations indicated that our results had moderate to strong predictability, with area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve values above 0.80 and classification accuracies ranging from 66 to 89 %. State models provided a more robust assessment of elodea habitat suitability. These ensembles revealed different levels of management concern statewide, based on the interaction of fish subsistence patterns, known spawning and rearing sites, and elodea habitat suitability, thus highlighting regions with additional need for targeted monitoring. Our results suggest that this approach can hold great utility for invasion risk assessments and better facilitate the inclusion of local stakeholder concerns in conservation planning and management.

Legal briefing: voluntarily stopping eating and drinking.

This issue's "Legal Briefing" column covers recent legal developments involving voluntarily stopping eating and drinking (VSED). Over the past decade, clinicians and bioethicists have increasingly recognized VSED as a medically and ethically appropriate means to hasten death. Most recently, in September 2013, the National Hospice and Palliative Care Organization (NHPCO) called on its 2,000 member hospices to develop policies and guidelines addressing VSED. And VSED is getting more attention not only in healthcare communities, but also in the general public. For example, VSED was recently highlighted on the front page of the New York Times and in other national and local media. Nevertheless, despite the growing interest in VSED, there remains little on-point legal authority and only sparse bioethics literature analyzing its legality.This article aims to fill this gap. Specifically, we focus on new legislative, regulatory, and judicial acts that clarify the permissibility of VSED. We categorize these legal developments into the following seven categories: 1. Definition of VSED. 2. Uncertainty Whether Oral Nutrition and Hydration Are Medical Treatment. 3. Uncertainty Regarding Providers' Obligations to Patients Who Choose VSED. 4. Judicial Guidance from Australia. 5. Judicial Guidance from the United Kingdom.

Self-engagement as a predictor of performance and emotional reactions to performance outcomes.

Three studies examined the relationship between engagement in different types of tasks, performance on those tasks, and reactions to performance outcomes. The three studies included voting in the 2004 presidential election, test performance in an undergraduate course, and completion of personal projects during the course of the semester. Engagement in voting predicted voting in the presidential election and magnified positive feelings of voting for the winning candidate. Test engagement predicted performance on the test, and magnified positive feelings of not showing a discrepancy between expected and actual test performance. Engagement in personal projects interacted with task complexity to predict project completion, with engagement being related to goal completion for tasks high in complexity. Project engagement also magnified the positive effects of a high probability of completing the project. The results provide support for task engagement as a predictor of performance and as a facilitator of positive feelings following success.

Women's perceptions of dense breast notifications in a Massachusetts safety net hospital: "So what is that supposed to mean?"

OBJECTIVE: Currently, 30 US states mandate that radiologists notify women when dense breast tissue is found on mammography. Little is understood about how notifications are perceived by recipients. This qualitative study sought to understand how dense breast notifications (DBNs) impact women's perceptions and their participation in follow-up care. METHODS: We assessed rates of DBN recall and conducted semi-structured telephone interviews with 30 English-speaking women ages 40 to 74 after receiving a DBN from a Massachusetts hospital. Content coding characterized women's recall of the notification content, perceptions of breast density, and planned or actual participation in follow-up care. RESULTS: Most women (81%) recalled receiving a DBN, but few could recall specific content. Women described struggling to understand the meaning of breast density and created their own explanatory models of dense breasts that differed from medical explanations. Many women planned to or did talk with their doctors about breast density as a result of receiving the notification. CONCLUSIONS: Women receiving DBNs have limited knowledge and many misperceptions about the implications of having dense breasts. PRACTICE IMPLICATIONS: Educational support is needed to promote informed decision- making about breast cancer screening that incorporates personal risk in the setting of dense breast legislation.

Integrating Remote Sensing with Species Distribution Models; Mapping Tamarisk Invasions Using the Software for Assisted Habitat Modeling (SAHM).

Early detection of invasive plant species is vital for the management of natural resources and protection of ecosystem processes. The use of satellite remote sensing for mapping the distribution of invasive plants is becoming more common, however conventional imaging software and classification methods have been shown to be unreliable. In this study, we test and evaluate the use of five species distribution model techniques fit with satellite remote sensing data to map invasive tamarisk (Tamarix spp.) along the Arkansas River in Southeastern Colorado. The models tested included boosted regression trees (BRT), Random Forest (RF), multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS), generalized linear model (GLM), and Maxent. These analyses were conducted using a newly developed software package called the Software for Assisted Habitat Modeling (SAHM). All models were trained with 499 presence points, 10,000 pseudo-absence points, and predictor variables acquired from the Landsat 5 Thematic Mapper (TM) sensor over an eight-month period to distinguish tamarisk from native riparian vegetation using detection of phenological differences. From the Landsat scenes, we used individual bands and calculated Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), Soil-Adjusted Vegetation Index (SAVI), and tasseled capped transformations. All five models identified current tamarisk distribution on the landscape successfully based on threshold independent and threshold dependent evaluation metrics with independent location data. To account for model specific differences, we produced an ensemble of all five models with map output highlighting areas of agreement and areas of uncertainty. Our results demonstrate the usefulness of species distribution models in analyzing remotely sensed data and the utility of ensemble mapping, and showcase the capability of SAHM in pre-processing and executing multiple complex models.

Using high-resolution future climate scenarios to forecast Bromus tectorum invasion in Rocky Mountain National Park.

National Parks are hallmarks of ecosystem preservation in the United States. The introduction of alien invasive plant species threatens protection of these areas. Bromus tectorum L. (commonly called downy brome or cheatgrass), which is found in Rocky Mountain National Park (hereafter, the Park), Colorado, USA, has been implicated in early spring competition with native grasses, decreased soil nitrogen, altered nutrient and hydrologic regimes, and increased fire intensity. We estimated the potential distribution of B. tectorum in the Park based on occurrence records (n = 211), current and future climate, and distance to roads and trails. An ensemble of six future climate scenarios indicated the habitable area of B. tectorum may increase from approximately 5.5% currently to 20.4% of the Park by the year 2050. Using ordination methods we evaluated the climatic space occupied by B. tectorum in the Park and how this space may shift given future climate change. Modeling climate change at a small extent (1,076 km2) and at a fine spatial resolution (90 m) is a novel approach in species distribution modeling, and may provide inference for microclimates not captured in coarse-scale models. Maps from our models serve as high-resolution hypotheses that can be improved over time by land managers to set priorities for surveys and removal of invasive species such as B. tectorum.

Safety and immunogenicity of RV3-BB human neonatal rotavirus vaccine administered at birth or in infancy: a randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Despite the success of rotavirus vaccines, suboptimal vaccine efficacy in regions with a high burden of disease continues to present a challenge to worldwide implementation. A birth dose strategy with a vaccine developed from an asymptomatic neonatal rotavirus strain has the potential to address this challenge and provide protection from severe rotavirus disease from birth. METHODS: This phase 2a randomised, double-blind, three-arm, placebo-controlled safety and immunogenicity trial was undertaken at a single centre in New Zealand between Jan 13, 2012, and April 17, 2014. Healthy, full-term (≥36 weeks gestation) babies, who weighed at least 2500 g, and were 0-5 days old at the time of randomisation were randomly assigned (1:1:1; computer-generated; telephone central allocation) according to a concealed block randomisation schedule to oral RV3-BB vaccine with the first dose given at 0-5 days after birth (neonatal schedule), to vaccine with the first dose given at about 8 weeks after birth (infant schedule), or to placebo. The primary endpoint was cumulative vaccine take (serum immune response or stool shedding of vaccine virus after any dose) after three doses. The immunogenicity analysis included all randomised participants with available outcome data. This trial is registered with the Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry, ACTRN12611001212943. FINDINGS: 95 eligible participants were randomised, of whom 89 were included in the primary analysis. A cumulative vaccine take was detected in 27 (90%) of 30 participants in the neonatal schedule group after three doses of RV3-BB vaccine compared with four (13%) of 32 participants in the placebo group (difference in proportions 0·78, 95% CI 0·55-0·88; p<0·0001). 25 (93%) of 27 participants in the infant schedule group had a cumulative vaccine take after three doses compared with eight (25%) of 32 participants in the placebo group (difference in proportions 0·68, 0·44-0·81; p<0·0001). A serum IgA response was detected in 19 (63%) of 30 participants and 20 (74%) of 27 participants, and stool shedding of RV3-BB was detected in 21 (70%) of 30 participants and 21 (78%) of 27 participants in the neonatal and infant schedule groups, respectively. The frequency of solicited and unsolicited adverse events was similar across the treatment groups. RV3-BB vaccine was not associated with an increased frequency of fever or gastrointestinal symptoms compared with placebo. INTERPRETATION: RV3-BB vaccine was immunogenic and well tolerated when given as a three-dose neonatal or infant schedule. A birth dose strategy of RV3-BB vaccine has the potential to improve the effectiveness and implementation of rotavirus vaccines. FUNDING: Australian National Health and Medical Research Council, the New Zealand Health Research Council, and the Murdoch Childrens Research Institute.