Nanopore sequencing of internal 2'-PO4 modifications installed by RNA repair.

Ligation by plant and fungal RNA ligases yields an internal 2'-phosphate group on each RNA ligation product. In budding yeast, this covalent mark occurs at the splice junction of two targets of ligation: intron-containing tRNAs and the messenger RNA HAC1 The repertoire of RNA molecules repaired by RNA ligation has not been explored due to a lack of unbiased approaches for identifying RNA ligation products. Here, we define several unique signals produced by 2'-phosphorylated RNAs during nanopore sequencing. A 2'-phosphate at the splice junction of HAC1 mRNA inhibits 5' → 3' degradation, enabling detection of decay intermediates in yeast RNA repair mutants by nanopore sequencing. During direct RNA sequencing, intact 2'-phosphorylated RNAs on HAC1 and tRNAs produce diagnostic changes in nanopore current properties and base calling features, including stalls produced as the modified RNA translocates through the nanopore motor protein. These approaches enable directed studies to identify novel RNA repair events in other contexts.

The impact of alcohol and illicit substance use on the pharmacokinetics of first-line TB drugs.

BACKGROUND: In South Africa, an estimated 11% of the population have high alcohol use, a major risk factor for TB. Alcohol and other substance use are also associated with poor treatment response, with a potential mechanism being altered TB drug pharmacokinetics. OBJECTIVES: To investigate the impact of alcohol and illicit substance use on the pharmacokinetics of first-line TB drugs in participants with pulmonary TB. METHODS: We prospectively enrolled participants ≥15 years old, without HIV, and initiating drug-susceptible TB treatment in Worcester, South Africa. Alcohol use was measured via self-report and blood biomarkers. Other illicit substances were captured through a urine drug test. Plasma samples were drawn 1 month into treatment pre-dose, and 1.5, 3, 5 and 8 h post-dose. Non-linear mixed-effects modelling was used to describe the pharmacokinetics of rifampicin, isoniazid, pyrazinamide and ethambutol. Alcohol and drug use were tested as covariates. RESULTS: The study included 104 participants, of whom 70% were male, with a median age of 37 years (IQR 27-48). Alcohol use was high, with 42% and 28% of participants having moderate and high alcohol use, respectively. Rifampicin and isoniazid had slightly lower pharmacokinetics compared with previous reports, whereas pyrazinamide and ethambutol were consistent. No significant alcohol use effect was detected, other than 13% higher ethambutol clearance in participants with high alcohol use. Methaqualone use reduced rifampicin bioavailability by 19%. CONCLUSION: No clinically relevant effect of alcohol use was observed on the pharmacokinetics of first-line TB drugs, suggesting that poor treatment outcome is unlikely due to pharmacokinetic alterations. That methaqualone reduced rifampicin means dose adjustment may be beneficial.

Test characteristics for combining non-invasive liver fibrosis staging modalities in individuals with Hepatitis C virus.

Non-invasive methods have largely replaced biopsy to identify advanced fibrosis in hepatitis C virus (HCV). Guidelines vary regarding testing strategy to balance accuracy, costs and loss to follow-up. Although individual test characteristics are well-described, data comparing the accuracy of using two tests together are limited. We calculated combined test characteristics to determine the utility of combined strategies. This study synthesizes empirical data from fibrosis staging trials and the literature to estimate test characteristics for Fibrosis-4 (FIB4), APRI or a commercial serum panel (FibroSure®), followed by transient elastography (TE) or FibroSure®. We simulated two testing strategies: (1) second test only for those with intermediate first test results (staged approach), and (2) second test for all. We summarized empiric data with multinomial distributions and used this to estimate test characteristics of each strategy on a simulated population of 10,000 individuals with 4.2% cirrhosis prevalence. Negative predictive value (NPV) for cirrhosis from a single test ranged from 98.2% (95% CB 97.6-98.8%) for FIB-4 to 99.4% (95% CB 99.0-99.8%) for TE. Using a staged approach with TE second, sensitivity for cirrhosis rose to 93.3-96.9%, NPV to 99.7-99.8%, while PPV dropped to <32%. Using TE as a second test for all minimally changed estimated test characteristics compared with the staged approach. Combining two non-invasive fibrosis tests barely improves NPV and decreases or does not change PPV compared with a single test, challenging the utility of serial testing modalities. These calculated combined test characteristics can inform best methods to identify advanced fibrosis in various populations.

Pharmacokinetic Effects of Different Models of Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease in Transgenic Humanized OATP1B Mice.

Organic anion transporting polypeptide (OATP) 1B1 and OATP1B3 (collectively, OATP1B) transporters encoded by the solute carrier organic anion transporter (SLCO) genes mediate uptake of multiple pharmaceutical compounds. Nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH), a severe form of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD), decreases OATP1B abundance. This research characterized the pathologic and pharmacokinetics effects of three diet- and one chemical-induced NAFLD model in male and female humanized OATP1B mice, which comprises knock-out of rodent Oatp orthologs and insertion of human SLCO1B1 and SLCO1B3. Histopathology scoring demonstrated elevated steatosis and inflammation scores for all NAFLD-treatment groups. Female mice had minor changes in SLCO1B1 expression in two of the four NAFLD treatment groups, and pitavastatin (PIT) area under the concentration-time curve (AUC) increased in female mice in only one of the diet-induced models. OATP1B3 expression decreased in male and female mice in the chemical-induced NAFLD model, with a coinciding increase in PIT AUC, indicating the chemical-induced model may better replicate changes in OATP1B3 expression and OATP substrate disposition observed in NASH patients. This research also tested a reported multifactorial pharmacokinetic interaction between NAFLD and silymarin, an extract from milk thistle seeds with notable OATP-inhibitory effects. Males showed no change in PIT AUC, whereas female PIT AUC increased 1.55-fold from the diet alone and the 1.88-fold from the combination of diet with silymarin, suggesting that female mice are more sensitive to pharmacokinetic changes than male mice. Overall, the humanized OATP1B model should be used with caution for modeling NAFLD and multifactorial pharmacokinetic interactions. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT: Advanced stages of NAFLD cause decreased hepatic OATP1B abundance and increase systemic exposure to OATP substrates in human patients. The humanized OATP1B mouse strain may provide a clinically relevant model to recapitulate these observations and predict pharmacokinetic interactions in NAFLD. This research characterized three diet-induced and one drug-induced NAFLD model in a humanized OATP1B mouse model. Additionally, a multifactorial pharmacokinetic interaction was observed between silymarin and NAFLD.

Phenotypical differences of C9ORF72 gene-positive and negative amyotrophic lateral sclerosis: a comparative case series.

BACKGROUND: Hexanucleotide repeat expansions of C9ORF72 account for a significant proportion of autosomal dominant neurodegenerative diseases in the amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS)-frontotemporal dementia spectrum. In the absence of a family history, clinical identification of such patients remains difficult. We aimed to identify differences in demographics and clinical presentation between patients with C9ORF72 gene-positive ALS (C9pALS) versus C9ORF72 gene-negative ALS (C9nALS), to aid identification of these patients in the clinic and examine differences in outcomes including survival. METHODS: We retrospectively reviewed the clinical presentations of 32 patients with C9pALS and compared their characteristics with a cohort of 46 patients with C9nALS from the same tertiary neurosciences centre. RESULTS: Patients with C9pALS more commonly presented with mixed upper and lower motor signs (C9pALS 87.5%, C9nALS 65.2%; p=0.0352), but less frequently presented with purely upper motor neuron signs (C9pALS 3.1%, C9nALS 21.7%; p=0.0226). The C9pALS cohort had a higher frequency of cognitive impairment (C9pALS 31.3%, C9nALS 10.9%; p=0.0394) and bulbar disease (C9pALS 56.3%, C9nALS 28.3%; p=0.0186). There were no differences between cohorts in age at diagnosis, gender, limb weakness, respiratory symptoms, presentation with predominantly lower motor neuron signs or overall survival. DISCUSSION: Analysis of this ALS clinic cohort at a UK tertiary neurosciences centre adds to the small but growing understanding of the unique clinical features of patients with C9pALS. In the age of precision medicine with expanding opportunities to manage genetic diseases with disease-modifying therapies, clinical identification of such patients is increasingly important as focused therapeutic strategies become available.

Looking under the lamp-post: quantifying the performance of contact tracing in the United States during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic.

Contact tracing forms a crucial part of the public-health toolbox in mitigating and understanding emergent pathogens and nascent disease outbreaks. Contact tracing in the United States was conducted during the pre-Omicron phase of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. This tracing relied on voluntary reporting and responses, often using rapid antigen tests due to lack of accessibility to PCR tests. These limitations, combined with SARS-CoV-2's propensity for asymptomatic transmission, raise the question "how reliable was contact tracing for COVID-19 in the United States"? We answered this question using a Markov model to examine the efficiency with which transmission could be detected based on the design and response rates of contact tracing studies in the United States. Our results suggest that contact tracing protocols in the U.S. are unlikely to have identified more than 1.65% (95% uncertainty interval: 1.62-1.68%) of transmission events with PCR testing and 1.00% (95% uncertainty interval 0.98-1.02%) with rapid antigen testing. When considering a more robust contact tracing scenario, based on compliance rates in East Asia with PCR testing, this increases to 62.7% (95% uncertainty interval: 62.6-62.8%). We did not assume presence of asymptomatic transmission or superspreading, making our estimates upper bounds on the actual percentages traced. These findings highlight the limitations in interpretability for studies of SARS-CoV-2 disease spread based on U.S. contact tracing and underscore the vulnerability of the population to future disease outbreaks, for SARS-CoV-2 and other pathogens.

Listening to School Nurses' Voices: A Mixed Methods Study on the Continued Impact of COVID-19 on School Nursing Practice.

School closures in March 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic precipitated losses of critical student resources as physical, mental, emotional, and social needs escalated. Identifying the challenges, strategies, and changes in school nurse (SN) practice in Massachusetts during this pandemic is fundamental to understanding how to manage future anticipated pandemics while protecting children, communities, and SNs. The purpose of this mixed-methods descriptive study in the second year of the global pandemic was to (a) listen to SN voices through a novel online survey including the prompts of challenges, strategies, and practice changes and (b) describe the SN experience of COVID-19 response in Massachusetts schools, including identification of intent to leave school nursing. Responses were analyzed using descriptive qualitative analysis (n = 73). The prompts each elicited subthemes that coalesced to a cohesive theme: Finding one's way required the support of others to pave untraversed roads.

Contribution of Reinfection to Annual Rate of Tuberculosis Infection (ARI) and Incidence of Tuberculosis Disease.

BACKGROUND: Modeling studies have concluded that 60-80% of tuberculosis (TB) infections result from reinfection of previously infected persons. The annual rate of infection (ARI), a standard measure of the risk of TB infection in a community, may not accurately reflect the true risk of infection among previously infected persons. We constructed a model of infection and reinfection with Mycobacterium tuberculosis to explore the predictive accuracy of ARI and its effect on disease incidence. METHODS: We created a deterministic simulation of the progression from TB infection to disease and simulated the prevalence of TB infection at the beginning and end of a theoretical year of infection. We considered 10 disease prevalence scenarios ranging from 100/100 000 to 1000/100 000 in simulations where TB exposure probability was homogeneous across the whole simulated population or heterogeneously stratified into high-risk and low-risk groups. ARI values, rates of progression from infection to disease, and the effect of multiple reinfections were obtained from published studies. RESULTS: With homogeneous exposure risk, observed ARI values produced expected numbers of infections. However, when heterogeneous risk was introduced, observed ARI was seen to underestimate true ARI by 25-58%. Of the cases of TB disease that occurred, 36% were among previously infected persons when prevalence was 100/100 000, increasing to 79% of cases when prevalence was 1000/100 000. CONCLUSIONS: Measured ARI underestimates true ARI as a result of heterogeneous population mixing. The true force of infection in a community may be greater than previously appreciated. Hyperendemic communities likely contribute disproportionally to the global TB disease burden.

Viral Dynamics of Omicron and Delta Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) Variants With Implications for Timing of Release from Isolation: A Longitudinal Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: In January 2022, US guidelines shifted to recommend isolation for 5 days from symptom onset, followed by 5 days of mask-wearing. However, viral dynamics and variant and vaccination impact on culture conversion are largely unknown. METHODS: We conducted a longitudinal study on a university campus, collecting daily anterior nasal swabs for at least 10 days for reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) testing and culture, with antigen rapid diagnostic testing (RDT) on a subset. We compared culture positivity beyond day 5, time to culture conversion, and cycle threshold trend when calculated from diagnostic test, from symptom onset, by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variant, and by vaccination status. We evaluated sensitivity and specificity of RDT on days 4-6 compared with culture. RESULTS: Among 92 SARS-CoV-2 RT-PCR-positive participants, all completed the initial vaccine series; 17 (18.5%) were infected with Delta and 75 (81.5%) with Omicron. Seventeen percent of participants had positive cultures beyond day 5 from symptom onset, with the latest on day 12. There was no difference in time to culture conversion by variant or vaccination status. For 14 substudy participants, sensitivity and specificity of day 4-6 RDT were 100% and 86%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The majority of our Delta- and Omicron-infected cohort culture-converted by day 6, with no further impact of booster vaccination on sterilization or cycle threshold decay. We found that rapid antigen testing may provide reassurance of lack of infectiousness, though guidance to mask for days 6-10 is supported by our finding that 17% of participants remained culture-positive after isolation.

Early Introduction and Rise of the Omicron Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) Variant in Highly Vaccinated University Populations.

BACKGROUND: The Omicron variant of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is highly transmissible in vaccinated and unvaccinated populations. The dynamics that govern its establishment and propensity toward fixation (reaching 100% frequency in the SARS-CoV-2 population) in communities remain unknown. Here, we describe the dynamics of Omicron at 3 institutions of higher education (IHEs) in the greater Boston area. METHODS: We use diagnostic and variant-specifying molecular assays and epidemiological analytical approaches to describe the rapid dominance of Omicron following its introduction into 3 IHEs with asymptomatic surveillance programs. RESULTS: We show that the establishment of Omicron at IHEs precedes that of the state and region and that the time to fixation is shorter at IHEs (9.5-12.5 days) than in the state (14.8 days) or region. We show that the trajectory of Omicron fixation among university employees resembles that of students, with a 2- to 3-day delay. Finally, we compare cycle threshold values in Omicron vs Delta variant cases on college campuses and identify lower viral loads among college affiliates who harbor Omicron infections. CONCLUSIONS: We document the rapid takeover of the Omicron variant at IHEs, reaching near-fixation within the span of 9.5-12.5 days despite lower viral loads, on average, than the previously dominant Delta variant. These findings highlight the transmissibility of Omicron, its propensity to rapidly dominate small populations, and the ability of robust asymptomatic surveillance programs to offer early insights into the dynamics of pathogen arrival and spread.

Aspirin and nonaspirin nonsteroidal antiinflammatory drug use and occurrence of colorectal adenoma in Black American women.

Evidence suggests that aspirin use reduces the occurrence of colorectal neoplasia. Few studies have investigated the association among Black Americans, who are disproportionately burdened by the disease. We assessed aspirin use in relation to colorectal adenoma among Black women. The Black Women's Health Study is a prospective cohort of self-identified Black American women established in 1995. Participants reported regular aspirin use on baseline and follow-up questionnaires. Beginning in 1999, participants reported undergoing a colonoscopy or sigmoidoscopy, the only procedures through which colorectal adenomas can be diagnosed. Multivariable logistic regression was used to estimate odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for associations between aspirin use and colorectal adenoma among 34 397 women who reported at least 1 colonoscopy or sigmoidoscopy. From 1997 through 2018, 1913 women were diagnosed with an adenoma. Compared to nonaspirin users, regular users had 14% (OR = 0.86, 95% CI: 0.78-0.95) lower odds of adenoma. The odds of adenoma decreased with increasing duration of aspirin use (≥10 years: OR = 0.80, 95% CI: 0.66-0.96). Initiating aspirin at a younger age was associated with a reduced adenoma occurrence (age < 40 years at initiation: OR = 0.69, 95% CI: 0.55-0.86). Regular aspirin use was associated with a decreased odds of colorectal adenoma in our study of Black women. These findings support evidence demonstrating a chemopreventive impact of aspirin on colorectal neoplasia and suggest that aspirin may be a useful prevention strategy among US Black women.

PANTHER: AZD8931, inhibitor of EGFR, ERBB2 and ERBB3 signalling, combined with FOLFIRI: a Phase I/II study to determine the importance of schedule and activity in colorectal cancer.

BACKGROUND: Epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) is a therapeutic target to which HER2/HER3 activation may contribute resistance. This Phase I/II study examined the toxicity and efficacy of high-dose pulsed AZD8931, an EGFR/HER2/HER3 inhibitor, combined with chemotherapy, in metastatic colorectal cancer (CRC). METHODS: Treatment-naive patients received 4-day pulses of AZD8931 with irinotecan/5-FU (FOLFIRI) in a Phase I/II single-arm trial. Primary endpoint for Phase I was dose limiting toxicity (DLT); for Phase II best overall response. Samples were analysed for pharmacokinetics, EGFR dimers in circulating exosomes and Comet assay quantitating DNA damage. RESULTS: Eighteen patients received FOLFIRI and AZD8931. At 160 mg bd, 1 patient experienced G3 DLT; 160 mg bd was used for cohort expansion. No grade 5 adverse events (AE) reported. Seven (39%) and 1 (6%) patients experienced grade 3 and grade 4 AEs, respectively. Of 12 patients receiving 160 mg bd, best overall response rate was 25%, median PFS and OS were 8.7 and 21.2 months, respectively. A reduction in circulating HER2/3 dimer in the two responding patients after 12 weeks treatment was observed. CONCLUSIONS: The combination of pulsed high-dose AZD8931 with FOLFIRI has acceptable toxicity. Further studies of TKI sequencing may establish a role for pulsed use of such agents rather than continuous exposure. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ClinicalTrials.gov number: NCT01862003.

Estimation of the generation interval using pairwise relative transmission probabilities.

The generation interval (the time between infection of primary and secondary cases) and its often used proxy, the serial interval (the time between symptom onset of primary and secondary cases) are critical parameters in understanding infectious disease dynamics. Because it is difficult to determine who infected whom, these important outbreak characteristics are not well understood for many diseases. We present a novel method for estimating transmission intervals using surveillance or outbreak investigation data that, unlike existing methods, does not require a contact tracing data or pathogen whole genome sequence data on all cases. We start with an expectation maximization algorithm and incorporate relative transmission probabilities with noise reduction. We use simulations to show that our method can accurately estimate the generation interval distribution for diseases with different reproductive numbers, generation intervals, and mutation rates. We then apply our method to routinely collected surveillance data from Massachusetts (2010-2016) to estimate the serial interval of tuberculosis in this setting.

Massachusetts Prevalence of Opioid Use Disorder Estimation Revisited: Comparing a Bayesian Approach to Standard Capture-Recapture Methods.

BACKGROUND: The National Survey on Drug Use and Health (NSDUH) estimated the prevalence of opioid use disorder (OUD) among the civilian, noninstitutionalized people aged 12 years or older in Massachusetts as 1.2% between 2015 and 2017. Accurate estimation of the prevalence of OUD is critical to the success of treatment and resource planning. Various indirect estimation approaches have been used but are subject to data availability and infrastructure-related issues. METHODS: We used 2015 data from the Massachusetts Public Health Data Warehouse (PHD) to compare the results of two approaches to estimating OUD prevalence in the Massachusetts population. First, we used a seven-dataset capture-recapture analysis under log-linear model parameterization, controlling for the source dependence and effects of age, sex, and county through stratification. Second, we applied a benchmark-multiplier method in a Bayesian framework by linking health care claims data to death certificate data assuming an extrapolation of death rates from observed untreated OUD to unobserved OUD. RESULTS: Our estimates for OUD prevalence among Massachusetts residents (aged 18-64 years) were 4.62% (95% CI = 4.59%, 4.64%) in the capture-recapture approach and 4.29% (95% CrI = 3.49%, 5.32%) in the Bayesian model. Both estimates were approximately four times higher than NSDUH estimates. CONCLUSION: The synthesis of our findings suggests that the disease surveillance system misses a large portion of the population with OUD. Our study also suggests that concurrent use of multiple methods improves the justification and facilitates the triangulation and interpretation of the resulting estimates. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT04111939.

Nitrous oxide-induced myeloneuropathy: a case series.

BACKGROUND: Nitrous oxide (N2O) is the second most common recreational drug used by 16- to 24-year-olds in the UK. Neurological symptoms can occur in some people that use N2O recreationally, but most information comes from small case series. METHODS: We describe 119 patients with N2O-myeloneuropathy seen at NHS teaching hospitals in three of the UK's largest cities: London, Birmingham and Manchester. This work summarises the clinical and investigative findings in the largest case series to date. RESULTS: Paraesthesia was the presenting complaint in 85% of cases, with the lower limbs more commonly affected than the upper limbs. Gait ataxia was common, and bladder and bowel disturbance were frequent additional symptoms. The mid-cervical region of the spinal cord (C3-C5) was most often affected on MRI T2-weighted imaging. The number of N2O canisters consumed per week correlated with methylmalonic acid levels in the blood as a measure of functional B12 deficiency (rho (ρ)=0.44, p=0.04). CONCLUSIONS: Preventable neurological harm from N2O abuse is increasingly seen worldwide. Ease of access to canisters and larger cylinders of N2O has led to an apparent rise in cases of N2O-myeloneuropathy in several areas of the UK. Our results highlight the range of clinical manifestations in a large group of patients to improve awareness of risk, aid early recognition, and promote timely treatment.

Protocol for a prospective study evaluating circulating tumour cells status to predict radical prostatectomy treatment failure in localised prostate cancer patients (C-ProMeta-1).

BACKGROUND: Treatment decisions in prostate cancer (PCa) rely on disease stratification between localised and metastatic stages, but current imaging staging technologies are not sensitive to micro-metastatic disease. Circulating tumour cells (CTCs) status is a promising tool in this regard. The Parsortix® CTC isolation system employs an epitope-independent approach based on cell size and deformability to increase the capture rate of CTCs. Here, we present a protocol for prospective evaluation of this method to predict post radical prostatectomy (RP) PCa cancer recurrence. METHODS: We plan to recruit 294 patients diagnosed with unfavourable intermediate, to high and very high-risk localised PCa. Exclusion criteria include synchronous cancer diagnosis or prior PCa treatment, including hormone therapy. RP is performed according to the standard of care. Two blood samples (20 ml) are collected before and again 3-months after RP. The clinical team are blinded to CTC results and the laboratory researchers are blinded to clinical information. Treatment failure is defined as a PSA ≥ 0.2 mg/ml, start of salvage treatment or imaging-proven metastatic lesions. The CTC analysis entails enumeration and RNA analysis of gene expression in captured CTCs. The primary outcome is the accuracy of CTC status to predict post-RP treatment failure at 4.5 years. Observed sensitivity, positive and negative predictive values will be reported. Specificity will be presented over time. DISCUSSION: CTC status may reflect the true potential for PCa metastasis and may predict clinical outcomes better than the current PCa progression risk grading systems. Therefore establishing a robust biomarker for predicting treatment failure in localized high-risk PCa would significantly enhance guidance in treatment decision-making, optimizing cure rates while minimizing unnecessary harm from overtreatment. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN17332543.

Estimation of heterogeneous instantaneous reproduction numbers with application to characterize SARS-CoV-2 transmission in Massachusetts counties.

The reproductive number is an important metric that has been widely used to quantify the infectiousness of communicable diseases. The time-varying instantaneous reproductive number is useful for monitoring the real-time dynamics of a disease to inform policy making for disease control. Local estimation of this metric, for instance at a county or city level, allows for more targeted interventions to curb transmission. However, simultaneous estimation of local reproductive numbers must account for potential sources of heterogeneity in these time-varying quantities-a key element of which is human mobility. We develop a statistical method that incorporates human mobility between multiple regions for estimating region-specific instantaneous reproductive numbers. The model also can account for exogenous cases imported from outside of the regions of interest. We propose two approaches to estimate the reproductive numbers, with mobility data used to adjust incidence in the first approach and to inform a formal priori distribution in the second (Bayesian) approach. Through a simulation study, we show that region-specific reproductive numbers can be well estimated if human mobility is reasonably well approximated by available data. We use this approach to estimate the instantaneous reproductive numbers of COVID-19 for 14 counties in Massachusetts using CDC case report data and the human mobility data collected by SafeGraph. We found that, accounting for mobility, our method produces estimates of reproductive numbers that are distinct across counties. In contrast, independent estimation of county-level reproductive numbers tends to produce similar values, as trends in county case-counts for the state are fairly concordant. These approaches can also be used to estimate any heterogeneity in transmission, for instance, age-dependent instantaneous reproductive number estimates. As people are more mobile and interact frequently in ways that permit transmission, it is important to account for this in the estimation of the reproductive number.

Projected Long-Term Impact of the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Pandemic on Hepatitis C Outcomes in the United States: A Modeling Study.

BACKGROUND: The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic disrupted access to and uptake of hepatitis C virus (HCV) care services in the United States. It is unknown how substantially the pandemic will impact long-term HCV-related outcomes. METHODS: We used a microsimulation to estimate the 10-year impact of COVID-19 disruptions in healthcare delivery on HCV outcomes including identified infections, linkage to care, treatment initiation and completion, cirrhosis, and liver-related death. We modeled hypothetical scenarios consisting of an 18-month pandemic-related disruption in HCV care starting in March 2020 followed by varying returns to pre-pandemic rates of screening, linkage, and treatment through March 2030 and compared them to a counterfactual scenario in which there was no COVID-19 pandemic or disruptions in care. We also performed alternate scenario analyses in which the pandemic disruption lasted for 12 and 24 months. RESULTS: Compared to the "no pandemic" scenario, in the scenario in which there is no return to pre-pandemic levels of HCV care delivery, we estimate 1060 fewer identified cases, 21 additional cases of cirrhosis, and 16 additional liver-related deaths per 100 000 people. Only 3% of identified cases initiate treatment and <1% achieve sustained virologic response (SVR). Compared to "no pandemic," the best-case scenario in which an 18-month care disruption is followed by a return to pre-pandemic levels, we estimated a smaller proportion of infections identified and achieving SVR. CONCLUSIONS: A recommitment to the HCV epidemic in the United States that involves additional resources coupled with aggressive efforts to screen, link, and treat people with HCV is needed to overcome the COVID-19-related disruptions.

What Can Genetic Relatedness Tell Us About Risk Factors for Tuberculosis Transmission?

BACKGROUND: To stop tuberculosis (TB), the leading infectious cause of death globally, we need to better understand transmission risk factors. Although many studies have identified associations between individual-level covariates and pathogen genetic relatedness, few have identified characteristics of transmission pairs or explored how closely covariates associated with genetic relatedness mirror those associated with transmission. METHODS: We simulated a TB-like outbreak with pathogen genetic data and estimated odds ratios (ORs) to correlate each covariate and genetic relatedness. We used a naive Bayes approach to modify the genetic links and nonlinks to resemble the true links and nonlinks more closely and estimated modified ORs with this approach. We compared these two sets of ORs with the true ORs for transmission. Finally, we applied this method to TB data in Hamburg, Germany, and Massachusetts, USA, to find pair-level covariates associated with transmission. RESULTS: Using simulations, we found that associations between covariates and genetic relatedness had the same relative magnitudes and directions as the true associations with transmission, but biased absolute magnitudes. Modifying the genetic links and nonlinks reduced the bias and increased the confidence interval widths, more accurately capturing error. In Hamburg and Massachusetts, pairs were more likely to be probable transmission links if they lived in closer proximity, had a shorter time between observations, or had shared ethnicity, social risk factors, drug resistance, or genotypes. CONCLUSIONS: We developed a method to improve the use of genetic relatedness as a proxy for transmission, and aid in understanding TB transmission dynamics in low-burden settings.

Variation in Initiation, Engagement, and Retention on Medications for Opioid Use Disorder Based on Health Insurance Plan Design.

BACKGROUND: The association between cost-sharing and receipt of medication for opioid use disorder (MOUD) is unknown. METHODS: We constructed a cohort of 10,513 commercially insured individuals with a new diagnosis of opioid use disorder and information on insurance cost-sharing in a large national deidentified claims database. We examined 4 cost-sharing measures: (1) pharmacy deductible; (2) medical service deductible; (3) pharmacy medication copay; and (4) medical office copay. We measured MOUD (naltrexone, buprenorphine, or methadone) initiation (within 14 d of diagnosis), engagement (second receipt within 34 d of first), and 6-month retention (continuous receipt without 14-d gap). We used multivariable logistic regression to assess the association between cost-sharing and MOUD initiation, engagement, and retention. We calculated total out-of-pocket costs in the 30 days following MOUD initiation for each type of MOUD. RESULTS: Of 10,513 individuals with incident opioid use disorder, 1202 (11%) initiated MOUD, 742 (7%) engaged, and 253 (2%) were retained in MOUD at 6 months. A high ($1000+) medical deductible was associated with a lower odds of initiation compared with no deductible (odds ratio: 0.85, 95% confidence interval: 0.74-0.98). We found no significant associations between other cost-sharing measures for initiation, engagement, or retention. Median initial 30-day out-of-pocket costs ranged from $100 for methadone to $710 for extended-release naltrexone. CONCLUSIONS: Among insurance plan cost-sharing measures, only medical services deductible showed an association with decreased MOUD initiation. Policy and benefit design should consider ways to reduce cost barriers to initiation and retention in MOUD.