Update on Vaccine-Derived Poliovirus Outbreaks - Worldwide, January 2023-June 2024.

Circulating vaccine-derived polioviruses (cVDPVs) can emerge and lead to outbreaks of paralytic polio as well as asymptomatic transmission in communities with a high percentage of undervaccinated children. Using data from the World Health Organization Polio Information System and Global Polio Laboratory Network, this report describes global polio outbreaks due to cVDPVs during January 2023-June 2024 and updates previous reports. During the reporting period, 74 cVDPV outbreaks were detected in 39 countries or areas (countries), predominantly in Africa. Among these 74 cVDPV outbreaks, 47 (64%) were new outbreaks, detected in 30 (77%) of the 39 countries. Three countries reported cVDPV type 1 (cVDPV1) outbreaks and 38 countries reported cVDPV type 2 (cVDPV2) outbreaks; two of these countries reported cocirculating cVDPV1 and cVDPV2. In the 38 countries with cVDPV2 transmission, 70 distinct outbreaks were reported. In 15 countries, cVDPV transmission has lasted >1 year into 2024. In Nigeria and Somalia, both countries with security-compromised areas, persistent cVDPV2 transmission has spread to neighboring countries. Delayed implementation of outbreak response campaigns and low-quality campaigns have resulted in further international spread. Countries can control cVDPV outbreaks with timely allocation of resources to implement prompt, high-quality responses after outbreak confirmation. Stopping all cVDPV transmission requires effectively increasing population immunity by overcoming barriers to reaching children.

Worst-case scenarios: Modeling uncontrolled type 2 polio transmission.

In May 2016, the Global Polio Eradication Initiative (GPEI) coordinated the cessation of all use of type 2 oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV2), except for emergency outbreak response. Since then, paralytic polio cases caused by type 2 vaccine-derived polioviruses now exceed 3,000 cases reported by 39 countries. In 2022 (as of April 25, 2023), 20 countries reported detection of cases and nine other countries reported environmental surveillance detection, but no reported cases. Recent development of a genetically modified novel type 2 OPV (nOPV2) may help curb the generation of neurovirulent vaccine-derived strains; its use since 2021 under Emergency Use Listing is limited to outbreak response activities. Prior modeling studies showed that the expected trajectory for global type 2 viruses does not appear headed toward eradication, even with the best possible properties of nOPV2 assuming current outbreak response performance. Continued persistence of type 2 poliovirus transmission exposes the world to the risks of potentially high-consequence events such as the importation of virus into high-transmission areas of India or Bangladesh. Building on prior polio endgame modeling and assuming current national and GPEI outbreak response performance, we show no probability of successfully eradicating type 2 polioviruses in the near term regardless of vaccine choice. We also demonstrate the possible worst-case scenarios could result in rapid expansion of paralytic cases and preclude the goal of permanently ending all cases of poliomyelitis in the foreseeable future. Avoiding such catastrophic scenarios will depend on the development of strategies that raise population immunity to type 2 polioviruses.

Coordinated global cessation of oral poliovirus vaccine use: Options and potential consequences.

Due to the very low, but nonzero, paralysis risks associated with the use of oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV), eradicating poliomyelitis requires ending all OPV use globally. The Global Polio Eradication Initiative (GPEI) coordinated cessation of Sabin type 2 OPV (OPV2 cessation) in 2016, except for emergency outbreak response. However, as of early 2023, plans for cessation of bivalent OPV (bOPV, containing types 1 and 3 OPV) remain undefined, and OPV2 use for outbreak response continues due to ongoing transmission of type 2 polioviruses and reported type 2 cases. Recent development and use of a genetically stabilized novel type 2 OPV (nOPV2) leads to additional potential vaccine options and increasing complexity in strategies for the polio endgame. Prior applications of integrated global risk, economic, and poliovirus transmission modeling consistent with GPEI strategic plans that preceded OPV2 cessation explored OPV cessation dynamics and the evaluation of options to support globally coordinated risk management efforts. The 2022-2026 GPEI strategic plan highlighted the need for early bOPV cessation planning. We review the published modeling and explore bOPV cessation immunization options as of 2022, assuming that the GPEI partners will not support restart of the use of any OPV type in routine immunization after a globally coordinated cessation of such use. We model the potential consequences of globally coordinating bOPV cessation in 2027, as anticipated in the 2022-2026 GPEI strategic plan. We do not find any options for bOPV cessation likely to succeed without a strategy of bOPV intensification to increase population immunity prior to cessation.

Update on Wild Poliovirus Type 1 Outbreak - Southeastern Africa, 2021-2022.

Since the Global Polio Eradication Initiative (GPEI) began in 1988, the number of wild poliovirus (WPV) cases has declined by >99.99%. Five of the six World Health Organization (WHO) regions have been certified free of indigenous WPV, and WPV serotypes 2 and 3 have been declared eradicated globally (1). WPV type 1 (WPV1) remains endemic only in Afghanistan and Pakistan (2,3). Before the outbreak described in this report, WPV1 had not been detected in southeastern Africa since the 1990s, and on August 25, 2020, the WHO African Region was certified free of indigenous WPV (4). On February 16, 2022, WPV1 infection was confirmed in one child living in Malawi, with onset of paralysis on November 19, 2021. Genomic sequence analysis of the isolated poliovirus indicated that it originated in Pakistan (5). Cases were subsequently identified in Mozambique. This report summarizes progress in the outbreak response since the initial report (5). During November 2021-December 2022, nine children and adolescents with paralytic polio caused by WPV1 were identified in southeastern Africa: one in Malawi and eight in Mozambique. Malawi, Mozambique, and three neighboring countries at high risk for WPV1 importation (Tanzania, Zambia, and Zimbabwe) responded by increasing surveillance and organizing up to six rounds of national and subnational polio supplementary immunization activities (SIAs).* Although no cases of paralytic WPV1 infection have been reported in Malawi since November 2021 or in Mozambique since August 2022, undetected transmission might be ongoing because of poliovirus surveillance gaps and testing delays. Efforts to further enhance poliovirus surveillance sensitivity, improve SIA quality, and strengthen routine immunization are needed to ensure that WPV1 transmission has been interrupted within 12 months of the first case, thereby preserving the WHO African Region's WPV-free status.

Update on Vaccine-Derived Poliovirus Outbreaks - Worldwide, January 2020-June 2021.

As of May 1, 2016, use of oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) type 2 for routine and supplementary immunization activities ceased after a synchronized global switch from trivalent OPV (tOPV; containing Sabin strain types 1, 2, and 3) to bivalent OPV (bOPV; containing Sabin strain types 1 and 3) subsequent to the certified eradication of wild type poliovirus (WPV) type 2 in 2015 (1-3). Circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus (cVDPV) outbreaks* occur when transmission of Sabin strain poliovirus is prolonged in underimmunized populations, allowing viral genetic reversion to neurovirulence, resulting in cases of paralytic polio (1-3). Since the switch, monovalent OPV type 2 (mOPV2, containing Sabin strain type 2) has been used for response to cVDPV type 2 (cVDPV2) outbreaks; tOPV is used if cVDPV2 co-circulates with WPV type 1, and bOPV is used for cVDPV type 1 (cVDPV1) or type 3 (cVDPV3) outbreaks (1-4). In November 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) Emergency Use Listing procedure authorized limited use of type 2 novel OPV (nOPV2), a vaccine modified to be more genetically stable than the Sabin strain, for cVDPV2 outbreak response (3,5). In October 2021, the Strategic Advisory Group of Experts on Immunization (WHO's principal advisory group) permitted wider use of nOPV2; however, current nOPV2 supply is limited (6). This report updates that of July 2019-February 2020 to describe global cVDPV outbreaks during January 2020-June 2021 (as of November 9, 2021)† (3). During this period, there were 44 cVDPV outbreaks of the three serotypes affecting 37 countries. The number of cVDPV2 cases increased from 366 in 2019 to 1,078 in 2020 (7). A goal of the Global Polio Eradication Initiative's (GPEI) 2022-2026 Strategic Plan is to better address the challenges to early CVDPV2 outbreak detection and initiate prompt and high coverage outbreak responses with available type 2 OPV to interrupt transmission by the end of 2023 (8).

Update on Vaccine-Derived Poliovirus Outbreaks - Worldwide, July 2019-February 2020.

Circulating vaccine-derived polioviruses (cVDPVs) can emerge in areas with low poliovirus immunity and cause outbreaks* of paralytic polio (1-5). Among the three types of wild poliovirus, type 2 was declared eradicated in 2015 (1,2). The use of trivalent oral poliovirus vaccine (tOPV; types 1, 2, and 3 Sabin strains) ceased in April 2016 via a 1-month-long, global synchronized switch to bivalent OPV (bOPV; types 1 and 3 Sabin strains) in immunization activities (1-4). Monovalent type 2 OPV (mOPV2; type 2 Sabin strain) is available for cVDPV type 2 (cVDPV2) outbreak response immunization (1-5). The number and geographic breadth of post-switch cVDPV2 outbreaks have exceeded forecasts that trended toward zero outbreaks 4 years after the switch and assumed rapid and effective control of any that occurred (4). New cVDPV2 outbreaks have been seeded by mOPV2 use, by both suboptimal mOPV2 coverage within response zones and recently mOPV2-vaccinated children or contacts traveling outside of response zones, where children born after the global switch are fully susceptible to poliovirus type 2 transmission (2-4). In addition, new emergences can develop by inadvertent exposure to Sabin OPV2-containing vaccine (i.e., residual response mOPV2 or tOPV) (4). This report updates the January 2018-June 2019 report with information on global cVDPV outbreaks during July 2019-February 2020 (as of March 25, 2020)† (2). Among 33 cVDPV outbreaks reported during July 2019-February 2020, 31 (94%) were cVDPV2; 18 (58%) of these followed new emergences. In mid-2020, the Global Polio Eradication Initiative (GPEI) plans to introduce a genetically stabilized, novel OPV type 2 (nOPV2) that has a lower risk for generating VDPV2 than does Sabin mOPV2; if nOPV2 is successful in limiting new VDPV2 emergences, GPEI foresees the replacement of Sabin mOPV2 with nOPV2 for cVDPV2 outbreak responses during 2021 (2,4,6).

Update on Vaccine-Derived Poliovirus Outbreaks - Democratic Republic of the Congo and Horn of Africa, 2017-2018.

Widespread use of live attenuated (Sabin) oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) has resulted in marked progress toward global poliomyelitis eradication (1). However, in underimmunized populations, extensive person-to-person transmission of Sabin poliovirus can result in genetic reversion to neurovirulence and paralytic vaccine-derived poliovirus (VDPV) disease (1). This report updates (as of February 26, 2019) previous reports on circulating VDPV type 2 (cVDPV2) outbreaks during 2017-2018 in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and in Somalia, which experienced a concurrent cVDPV type 3 (cVDPV3) outbreak* (2,3). In DRC, 42 cases have been reported in four cVDPV2 outbreaks; paralysis onset in the most recent case was October 7, 2018 (2). Challenges to interrupting transmission have included delays in outbreak-response supplementary immunization activities (SIAs) and difficulty reaching children in all areas. In Somalia, cVDPV2 and cVDPV3 were detected in sewage before the detection of paralytic cases (3). Twelve type 2 and type 3 cVDPV cases have been confirmed; the most recent paralysis onset dates were September 2 (cVDPV2) and September 7, 2018 (cVDPV3). The primary challenge to interrupting transmission is the residence of >300,000 children in areas that are inaccessible for vaccination activities. For both countries, longer periods of surveillance are needed before interruption of cVDPV transmission can be inferred.

Finding inhabited settlements and tracking vaccination progress: the application of satellite imagery analysis to guide the immunization response to confirmation of previously-undetected, ongoing endemic wild poliovirus transmission in Borno State, Nigeria.

BACKGROUND: Four wild polio-virus cases were reported in Borno State, Nigeria 2016, 1 year after Nigeria had been removed from the list of polio endemic countries by the World Health Organization. Resulting from Nigeria's decade long conflict with Boko Haram, health officials had been unable to access as much as 60% of the settlements in Borno, hindering vaccination and surveillance efforts. This lack of accessibility made it difficult for the government to assess the current population distribution within Borno. This study aimed to use high resolution, visible band satellite imagery to assess the habitation of inaccessible villages in Borno State. METHODS: Using high resolution (31-50 cm) imagery from DigitalGlobe, analysts evaluated the habitation status of settlements in Borno State identified by Nigeria's Vaccination Tracking System. The analysts looked at imagery of each settlement and, using vegetation (overgrowth vs. cleared) as a proxy for human habitation, classified settlements into three categories: inhabited, partially abandoned, and abandoned. Analysts also classified the intact percentage of each settlement starting at 0% (totally destroyed since last assessment) and increasing in 25% intervals through 100% (completely intact but not expanded) up to 200+% (more than doubled in size) by looking for destroyed buildings. These assessments were then used to adjust previously established population estimates for each settlement. These new population distributions were compared to vaccination efforts to determine the number of children under 5 unreached by vaccination teams. RESULTS: Of the 11,927 settlements assessed 3203 were assessed as abandoned (1892 of those completely destroyed), 662 as partially abandoned, and 8062 as fully inhabited as of December of 2017. Comparing the derived population estimates from the new assessments to previous assessment and the activities of vaccination teams shows that an estimated 180,155 of the 337,411 under five children who were unreached in 2016 were reached in 2017 (70.5% through vaccination efforts in previously inaccessible areas, 29.5% through displacement to accessible areas). CONCLUSIONS: This study's methodology provides important planning and situation awareness information to health workers in Borno, Nigeria, and may serve as a model for future data gathering efforts in inaccessible regions.

Progress Toward Poliomyelitis Eradication - Nigeria, January-December 2017.

Nearly three decades after the World Health Assembly launched the Global Polio Eradication Initiative in 1988, four of the six World Health Organization (WHO) regions have been certified polio-free (1). Nigeria is one of three countries, including Pakistan and Afghanistan, where wild poliovirus (WPV) transmission has never been interrupted. In September 2015, after >1 year without any reported WPV cases, Nigeria was removed from WHO's list of countries with endemic WPV transmission (2); however, during August and September 2016, four type 1 WPV (WPV1) cases were reported from Borno State, a state in northeastern Nigeria experiencing a violent insurgency (3). The Nigerian government, in collaboration with partners, launched a large-scale coordinated response to the outbreak (3). This report describes progress in polio eradication activities in Nigeria during January-December 2017 and updates previous reports (3-5). No WPV cases have been reported in Nigeria since September 2016; the latest case had onset of paralysis on August 21, 2016 (3). However, polio surveillance has not been feasible in insurgent-controlled areas of Borno State. Implementation of new strategies has helped mitigate the challenges of reaching and vaccinating children living in security-compromised areas, and other strategies are planned. Despite these initiatives, however, approximately 130,000-210,000 (28%-45%) of the estimated 469,000 eligible children living in inaccessible areas in 2016 have not been vaccinated. Sustained efforts to optimize surveillance and improve immunization coverage, especially among children in inaccessible areas, are needed.

Polio Legacy in Action: Using the Polio Eradication Infrastructure for Measles Elimination in Nigeria-The National Stop Transmission of Polio Program.

From 2012 to date, Nigeria has been the focus of intensified polio eradication efforts. Large investments made by multiple partner organizations and the federal Ministry of Health to support strategies and resources, including personnel, for increasing vaccination coverage and improved performance monitoring paid off, as the number of wild poliovirus (WPV) cases detected in Nigeria were reduced significantly, from 122 in 2012 to 6 in 2014. No WPV cases were detected in Nigeria in 2015 and as at March 2017, only 4 WPV cases had been detected. Given the momentum gained toward polio eradication, these resources seem well positioned to help advance other priority health agendas in Nigeria, particularly the control of vaccine-preventable diseases, such as measles. Despite implementation of mass measles vaccination campaigns, measles outbreaks continue to occur regularly in Nigeria, leading to high morbidity and mortality rates for children <5 years of age. The National Stop Transmission of Polio (NSTOP) program was collaboratively established in 2012 to create a network of staff working at national, state, and district levels in areas deemed high risk for vaccine-preventable disease outbreaks. As an example of how the polio legacy can create long-lasting improvements to public health beyond polio, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention will transition >180 NSTOP officers to provide technical experience to improve measles surveillance, routine vaccination coverage, and outbreak investigation and response in high-risk areas.

Approaches to Vaccination Among Populations in Areas of Conflict.

Vaccination is an important and cost-effective disease prevention and control strategy. Despite progress in vaccine development and immunization delivery systems worldwide, populations in areas of conflict (hereafter, "conflict settings") often have limited or no access to lifesaving vaccines, leaving them at increased risk for morbidity and mortality related to vaccine-preventable disease. Without developing and refining approaches to reach and vaccinate children and other vulnerable populations in conflict settings, outbreaks of vaccine-preventable disease in these settings may persist and spread across subnational and international borders. Understanding and refining current approaches to vaccinating populations in conflict and humanitarian emergency settings may save lives. Despite major setbacks, the Global Polio Eradication Initiative has made substantial progress in vaccinating millions of children worldwide, including those living in communities affected by conflicts and other humanitarian emergencies. In this article, we examine key strategic and operational tactics that have led to increased polio vaccination coverage among populations living in diverse conflict settings, including Nigeria, Somalia, and Pakistan, and how these could be applied to reach and vaccinate populations in other settings across the world.

Continued Endemic Wild Poliovirus Transmission in Security-Compromised Areas - Nigeria, 2016.

On August 10, 2016, 2 years after the most recent wild poliovirus (WPV) case was reported in Nigeria (in July 2014) (1), two WPV cases were reported in the northeastern state of Borno, which has been severely affected by insurgency-related insecurity since 2013. On September 9 and 26, 2016, two additional WPV cases were reported in Borno in children whose families migrated from security-compromised, inaccessible areas of the state. All four cases were WPV serotype 1 (WPV1), with genetic differences indicating prolonged undetected transmission. A large-scale emergency response plan was developed and implemented. The plan initially called for vaccination of 815,791 children during August 15-18 in five local government areas (LGAs) in the immediate vicinity of the first two WPV cases. Subsequently, the plan was expanded to regionally synchronized supplementary immunization activities (SIAs), conducted during August 27-December 6 in five Lake Chad basin countries at increased risk for national and regional WPV1 transmission (Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Niger, and Nigeria). In addition, retrospective searches for missed cases of acute flaccid paralysis (AFP), enhanced environmental surveillance for polioviruses, and polio surveillance system reviews were conducted. Prolonged undetected WPV1 transmission in Borno State is a consequence of low population immunity and severe surveillance limitations associated with insurgency-related insecurity and highlights the risk for local and international WPV spread (2). Increasing polio vaccination coverage and implementing high-quality polio surveillance, especially among populations in newly secured and difficult-to-access areas in Borno and other Lake Chad basin areas are urgently needed.

Environmental Isolation of Circulating Vaccine-Derived Poliovirus After Interruption of Wild Poliovirus Transmission - Nigeria, 2016.

In September 2015, more than 1 year after reporting its last wild poliovirus (WPV) case in July 2014 (1), Nigeria was removed from the list of countries with endemic poliovirus transmission,* leaving Afghanistan and Pakistan as the only remaining countries with endemic WPV. However, on April 29, 2016, a laboratory-confirmed, circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus type 2 (cVDPV2) isolate was reported from an environmental sample collected in March from a sewage effluent site in Maiduguri Municipal Council, Borno State, a security-compromised area in northeastern Nigeria. VDPVs are genetic variants of the vaccine viruses with the potential to cause paralysis and can circulate in areas with low population immunity. The Nigeria National Polio Emergency Operations Center initiated emergency response activities, including administration of at least 2 doses of oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) to all children aged <5 years through mass campaigns; retroactive searches for missed cases of acute flaccid paralysis (AFP), and enhanced environmental surveillance. Approximately 1 million children were vaccinated in the first OPV round. Thirteen previously unreported AFP cases were identified. Enhanced environmental surveillance has not resulted in detection of additional VDPV isolates. The detection of persistent circulation of VDPV2 in Borno State highlights the low population immunity, surveillance limitations, and risk for international spread of cVDPVs associated with insurgency-related insecurity. Increasing vaccination coverage with additional targeted supplemental immunization activities and reestablishment of effective routine immunization activities in newly secured and difficult-to-reach areas in Borno is urgently needed.

Prevention of infection-related cancers in the WHO Western Pacific Region.

A considerable number of infectious agents have been classified as human carcinogens Group 1 by the International Agency for Research on Cancer. Major infection-related cancers such as cancers of nasopharynx (53%), stomach (60%) and liver (63%) occur in the World Health Organization Western Pacific Region. Many infection-related cancers are preventable, particularly those associated with human papilloma virus, Helicobacter pylori, human immunodeficiency virus-I, hepatitis B virus and hepatitis C virus and liver flukes. Mongolia shows the highest prevalence of hepatitis B virus and hepatitis C virus, and China shows the highest prevalence of Helicobacter pylori. Chronic infection is attributable for 17-28% of overall cancer incidence or mortality in China, Japan and Korea. Through infant immunization for hepatitis B, 30 of 37 countries and areas in the Western Pacific Region have reached the 2012 milestone of chronic hepatitis B virus infection prevalence of <2% in 5-year-old children and countries and areas of the region are now striving toward reaching the regional goal of <1% by 2017. Human papilloma virus immunization program is implemented either by government funding or, in some low-income countries, by public and private sector organizations. Cervical cancer screening via visual inspection with acetic acid or Pap smear is available in many Western Pacific Region Member States. More efforts are needed to implement new World Health Organization guide to vaccinate 9- to 13-year-old girls with two doses of human papilloma virus vaccine, and use human papilloma virus tests to screen women to prevent and control cervical cancer including guaranteed monitoring and appropriate follow-up for abnormal results.

Outreach to underserved communities in northern Nigeria, 2012-2013.

BACKGROUND: Persistent wild poliovirus transmission in Nigeria constitutes a major obstacle to global polio eradication. In August 2012, the Nigerian national polio program implemented a strategy to conduct outreach to underserved communities within the context of the country's polio emergency action plans. METHODS: A standard operating procedure (SOP) for outreach to underserved communities was developed and included in the national guidelines for management of supplemental immunization activities (SIAs). The SOP included the following key elements: (1) community engagement meetings, (2) training of field teams, (3) field work, and (4) acute flaccid paralysis surveillance. RESULTS: Of the 46,437 settlements visited and enumerated during the outreach activities, 8607 (19%) reported that vaccination teams did not visit their settlements during prior SIAs, and 5112 (11.0%) reported never having been visited by polio vaccination teams. Fifty-two percent of enumerated settlements (23,944) were not found in the existing microplan used for the immediate past SIAs. CONCLUSIONS: During a year of outreach to >45,000 scattered, nomadic, and border settlements, approximately 1 in 5 identified were missed in the immediately preceding SIAs. These missed settlements housed a large number of previously unvaccinated children and potentially served as reservoirs for persistent wild poliovirus transmission in Nigeria.

Polio eradication in Nigeria and the role of the National Stop Transmission of Polio program, 2012-2013.

To strengthen the Nigeria polio eradication program at the operational level, the National Stop Transmission of Polio (N-STOP) program was established in July 2012 as a collaborative effort of the National Primary Health Care Development Agency, the Nigerian Field Epidemiology and Laboratory Training Program, and the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Since its inception, N-STOP has recruited and trained 125 full-time staff, 50 residents in training, and 50 ad hoc officers. N-STOP officers, working at national, state, and district levels, have conducted enumeration outreaches in 46,437 nomadic and hard-to-reach settlements in 253 districts of 19 states, supported supplementary immunization activities in 236 districts, and strengthened routine immunization in 100 districts. Officers have also conducted surveillance assessments, outbreak response, and applied research as needs evolved. The N-STOP program has successfully enhanced Global Polio Eradication Initiative partnerships and outreach in Nigeria, providing an accessible, flexible, and culturally competent technical workforce at the front lines of public health. N-STOP will continue to respond to polio eradication program needs and remain a model for other healthcare initiatives in Nigeria and elsewhere.

Progress toward poliomyelitis eradication in Nigeria.

BACKGROUND: Transmission of wild poliovirus (WPV) has never been interrupted in Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Nigeria. Since 2003, infections with WPV of Nigerian origin have been detected in 25 polio-free countries. In 2012, the Nigerian government created an emergency operations center and implemented a national emergency action plan to eradicate polio. The 2013 revision of this plan prioritized (1) improving the quality of supplemental immunization activities (SIAs), (2) implementing strategies to reach underserved populations, (3) adopting special approaches in security-compromised areas, (4) improving outbreak response, (5) enhancing routine immunization and activities implemented between SIAs, and (6) strengthening surveillance. This report summarizes implementation of these activities during a period of unprecedented insecurity and violence, including the killing of health workers and the onset of a state of emergency in the northeast zone. METHODS: This report reviews management strategies, innovations, trends in case counts, vaccination and social mobilization activities, and surveillance and monitoring data to assess progress in polio eradication in Nigeria. RESULTS: Nigeria has made significant improvements in the management of polio eradication initiative (pei) activities with marked improvement in the quality of SIAs, as measured by lot quality assurance sampling (LQAS). Comparing results from February 2012 with results from December 2013, the proportion of local government areas (LGAs) conducting LQAS in the 11 high-risk states at the ≥90% pass/fail threshold increased from 7% to 42%, and the proportion at the 80%-89% threshold increased from 9% to 30%. During January-December 2013, 53 polio cases were reported from 26 LGAs in 9 states in Nigeria, compared with 122 cases reported from 13 states in 2012. No cases of WPV type 3 infection have been reported since November 2012. In 2013, no polio cases due to any poliovirus type were detected in the northwest sanctuaries of Nigeria. In the second half of 2013, WPV transmission was restricted to Kano, Borno, Bauchi, and Taraba states. Despite considerable progress, 24 LGAs in 2012 and 7 LGAs in 2013 reported ≥2 cases, and WPV continued to circulate in 8 LGAs that had cases in 2012. Campaign activities were negatively impacted by insecurity and violence in Borno and Kano states. CONCLUSIONS: Efforts to interrupt transmission remain impeded by poor SIA implementation in localized areas, anti-polio vaccine sentiment, and limited access to vaccinate children because of insecurity. Sustained improvement in SIA quality, surveillance, and outbreak response and special strategies in security-compromised areas are needed to interrupt WPV transmission in 2014.

Increasing Population Immunity Prior to Globally-Coordinated Cessation of Bivalent Oral Poliovirus Vaccine (bOPV).

In 2022, global poliovirus modeling suggested that coordinated cessation of bivalent oral poliovirus vaccine (bOPV, containing Sabin-strain types 1 and 3) in 2027 would likely increase the risks of outbreaks and expected paralytic cases caused by circulating vaccine-derived polioviruses (cVDPVs), particularly type 1. The analysis did not include the implementation of planned, preventive supplemental immunization activities (pSIAs) with bOPV to achieve and maintain higher population immunity for types 1 and 3 prior to bOPV cessation. We reviewed prior published OPV cessation modeling studies to support bOPV cessation planning. We applied an integrated global poliovirus transmission and OPV evolution model after updating assumptions to reflect the epidemiology, immunization, and polio eradication plans through the end of 2023. We explored the effects of bOPV cessation in 2027 with and without additional bOPV pSIAs prior to 2027. Increasing population immunity for types 1 and 3 with bOPV pSIAs (i.e., intensification) could substantially reduce the expected global risks of experiencing cVDPV outbreaks and the number of expected polio cases both before and after bOPV cessation. We identified the need for substantial increases in overall bOPV coverage prior to bOPV cessation to achieve a high probability of successful bOPV cessation.

Outbreak response strategies with type 2-containing oral poliovirus vaccines.

Despite exhaustive and fully-financed plans to manage the risks of globally coordinated cessation of oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) containing type 2 (OPV2) prior to 2016, as of 2022, extensive, continued transmission of circulating vaccine-derived polioviruses (cVDPVs) type 2 (cVDPV2) remains. Notably, cumulative cases caused by cVDPV2 since 2016 now exceed 2,500. Earlier analyses explored the implications of using different vaccine formulations to respond to cVDPV2 outbreaks and demonstrated how different properties of novel OPV2 (nOPV2) might affect its performance compared to Sabin monovalent OPV2 (mOPV2). These prior analyses used fixed assumptions for how outbreak response would occur, but outbreak response implementation can change. We update an existing global poliovirus transmission model to explore different options for responding with different vaccines and assumptions about scope, delays, immunization intensity, target age groups, and number of rounds. Our findings suggest that in order to successfully stop all cVDPV2 transmission globally, countries and the Global Polio Eradication Initiative need to address the deficiencies in emergency outbreak response policy and implementation. The polio program must urgently act to substantially reduce response time, target larger populations - particularly in high transmission areas - and achieve high coverage with improved access to under-vaccinated subpopulations. Given the limited supplies of nOPV2 at the present, using mOPV2 intensively immediately, followed by nOPV2 intensively if needed and when sufficient quantities become available, substantially increases the probability of ending cVDPV2 transmission globally.