A modelling tool for capacity planning in acute and community stroke services.

BACKGROUND: Mathematical capacity planning methods that can take account of variations in patient complexity, admission rates and delayed discharges have long been available, but their implementation in complex pathways such as stroke care remains limited. Instead simple average based estimates are commonplace. These methods often substantially underestimate capacity requirements. We analyse the capacity requirements for acute and community stroke services in a pathway with over 630 admissions per year. We sought to identify current capacity bottlenecks affecting patient flow, future capacity requirements in the presence of increased admissions, the impact of co-location and pooling of the acute and rehabilitation units and the impact of patient subgroups on capacity requirements. We contrast these results to the often used method of planning by average occupancy, often with arbitrary uplifts to cater for variability. METHODS: We developed a discrete-event simulation model using aggregate parameter values derived from routine administrative data on over 2000 anonymised admission and discharge timestamps. The model mimicked the flow of stroke, high risk TIA and complex neurological patients from admission to an acute ward through to community rehab and early supported discharge, and predicted the probability of admission delays. RESULTS: An increase from 10 to 14 acute beds reduces the number of patients experiencing a delay to the acute stroke unit from 1 in every 7 to 1 in 50. Co-location of the acute and rehabilitation units and pooling eight beds out of a total bed stock of 26 reduce the number of delayed acute admissions to 1 in every 29 and the number of delayed rehabilitation admissions to 1 in every 20. Planning by average occupancy would resulted in delays for one in every five patients in the acute stroke unit. CONCLUSIONS: Planning by average occupancy fails to provide appropriate reserve capacity to manage the variations seen in stroke pathways to desired service levels. An appropriate uplift from the average cannot be based simply on occupancy figures. Our method draws on long available, intuitive, but underused mathematical techniques for capacity planning. Implementation via simulation at our study hospital provided valuable decision support for planners to assess future bed numbers and organisation of the acute and rehabilitation services.

Evaluation of the regional nurse-supported hepatitis C shared care program in Western Australia: a mixed methods study.

BACKGROUND: Nurse-supported shared care services for patients living with hepatitis C have been implemented in some regional areas of Western Australia to provide access to local treatment and care services for patients and to improve currently low levels of treatment uptake. This study collected data from health professionals involved in managing the care of patients living with hepatitis C and from patients engaged in regional nurse-supported hepatitis C shared care services in Western Australia. METHODS: Key informant qualitative interviews were conducted with health professionals in regions operating a nurse-supported shared care service and in regions without this service. Patients engaged in the shared care program at the time of the study were invited to complete a short questionnaire. RESULTS: Nurse-supported shared care services reduced patient transport costs to tertiary centres, accelerated access to treatment and delivered >98% compliance with treatment schedules. Patients engaged with regional hepatitis C shared care services expressed high levels of satisfaction and indicated that they would delay treatment if it was not available locally. Telehealth support from tertiary liver clinics and allied health services were available to health professionals engaged in regional shared care services and were used effectively. There was limited participation by general practitioners in regional hepatitis C shared care services and regional patients' access to treatment was influenced by the availability and capacity of health professionals. Uptake of treatment and engagement in the regional shared care program was limited for Aboriginal people and younger people although these groups had the highest rates of hepatitis C notifications in Western Australia. DISCUSSION: The patients consulted for this study preferred to access hepatitis C treatment and care locally rather than travel to tertiary liver clinics, up to 1500 kilometres away. The reasons for limited engagement in the shared care program by some groups with high rates of hepatitis C notifications requires further investigation. Health professionals identified several benefits of the shared care program including continuity of care for patients, shorter waiting times, longer appointment times and high levels of treatment compliance. CONCLUSIONS: Hepatitis nurses in regional areas can coordinate effective patient treatment and care when supported by treatment protocols and access to physicians and liver specialists, including through telehealth. Treatment and care options to suit individual preferences are required to avoid further stigmatising marginalised groups. The role of primary care in facilitating hepatitis C treatment uptake should be explored further including strategies for improving the participation of general practitioners in regional shared care services.

Cost of treatment support for multidrug-resistant tuberculosis using patient-centred approaches in Ethiopia: a model-based method.

BACKGROUND: Patient and health system costs for treating multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) remain high even after treatment duration was shortened. Many patients do not finish treatment, contributing to increased transmission and antimicrobial resistance. A restructure of health services, that is more patient-centred has the potential to reduce costs and increase trust and patient satisfaction. The aim of the study is to investigate how costs would change in the delivery of MDR-TB care in Ethiopia under patient-centred and hybrid approaches compared to the current standard-of-care. METHODS: We used published data, collected from 2017 to 2020 as part of the Standard Treatment Regimen of Anti-Tuberculosis Drugs for Patients with MDR-TB (STREAM) trial, to populate a discrete event simulation (DES) model. The model was developed to represent the key characteristics of patients' clinical pathways following each of the three treatment delivery strategies. To the pathways of 1000 patients generated by the DES model we applied relevant patient cost data derived from the STREAM trial. Costs are calculated for treating patients using a 9-month MDR-TB treatment and are presented in 2021 United States dollars (USD). RESULTS: The patient-centred and hybrid strategies are less costly than the standard-of-care, from both a health system (by USD 219 for patient-centred and USD 276 for the hybrid strategy) and patient perspective when patients do not have a guardian (by USD 389 for patient-centred and USD 152 for the hybrid strategy). Changes in indirect costs, staff costs, transport costs, inpatient stay costs or changes in directly-observed-treatment frequency or hospitalisation duration for standard-of-care did not change our results. CONCLUSION: Our findings show that patient-centred and hybrid strategies for delivering MDR-TB treatment cost less than standard-of-care and provide critical evidence that there is scope for such strategies to be implemented in routine care. These results should be used inform country-level decisions on how MDR-TB is delivered and also the design of future implementation trials.

Will delays in treatment jeopardize the population benefit from extending the time window for stroke thrombolysis?

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Pooled analyses show benefits of intravenous alteplase (recombinant tissue-type plasminogen activator) treatment for acute ischemic stroke up to 4.5 hours after onset despite marketing approval for up to 3 hours. However, the benefit from thrombolysis is critically time-dependent and if extending the time window reduces treatment urgency, this could reduce the population benefit from any extension. METHODS: Based on 3830 UK patients registered between 2005 to 2010 in the Safe Implementation of Treatments in Stroke-International Stroke Thrombolysis Registry (SITS-ISTR), a Monte Carlo simulation was used to model recombinant tissue-type plasminogen activator treatment up to 4·5 hours from onset and assess the impact (numbers surviving with little or no disability) from changes in hospital treatment times associated with this extended time window. RESULTS: We observed a significant relation between time remaining to treat and time taken to treat in the UK SITS-ISTR data set after adjustment for censoring. Simulation showed that as this "deadline effect" increases, an extended treatment time window entails that an increasing number of patients are treated at a progressively lower absolute benefit to a point where the population benefit from extending the time window is entirely negated. CONCLUSIONS: Despite the benefit for individual patients treated up to 4.5 hours after onset, the population benefit may be reduced or lost altogether if extending the time window results in more patients being treated but at a lower absolute benefit. A universally applied reduction in hospital arrival to treatment times of 8 minutes would confer a population benefit as large as the time window extension.

Determination of freedom-from-rabies for small Indian mongoose populations in the United States Virgin Islands, 2019-2020.

Mongooses, a nonnative species, are a known reservoir of rabies virus in the Caribbean region. A cross-sectional study of mongooses at 41 field sites on the US Virgin Islands of St. Croix, St. John, and St. Thomas captured 312 mongooses (32% capture rate). We determined the absence of rabies virus by antigen testing and rabies virus exposure by antibody testing in mongoose populations on all three islands. USVI is the first Caribbean state to determine freedom-from-rabies for its mongoose populations with a scientifically-led robust cross-sectional study. Ongoing surveillance activities will determine if other domestic and wildlife populations in USVI are rabies-free.

Mongooses (Urva auropunctata) as reservoir hosts of Leptospira species in the United States Virgin Islands, 2019-2020.

During 2019-2020, the Virgin Islands Department of Health investigated potential animal reservoirs of Leptospira spp., the bacteria that cause leptospirosis. In this cross-sectional study, we investigated Leptospira spp. exposure and carriage in the small Indian mongoose (Urva auropunctata, syn: Herpestes auropunctatus), an invasive animal species. This study was conducted across the three main islands of the U.S. Virgin Islands (USVI), which are St. Croix, St. Thomas, and St. John. We used the microscopic agglutination test (MAT), fluorescent antibody test (FAT), real-time polymerase chain reaction (lipl32 rt-PCR), and bacterial culture to evaluate serum and kidney specimens and compared the sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value of these laboratory methods. Mongooses (n = 274) were live-trapped at 31 field sites in ten regions across USVI and humanely euthanized for Leptospira spp. testing. Bacterial isolates were sequenced and evaluated for species and phylogenetic analysis using the ppk gene. Anti-Leptospira spp. antibodies were detected in 34% (87/256) of mongooses. Reactions were observed with the following serogroups: Sejroe, Icterohaemorrhagiae, Pyrogenes, Mini, Cynopteri, Australis, Hebdomadis, Autumnalis, Mankarso, Pomona, and Ballum. Of the kidney specimens examined, 5.8% (16/270) were FAT-positive, 10% (27/274) were culture-positive, and 12.4% (34/274) were positive by rt-PCR. Of the Leptospira spp. isolated from mongooses, 25 were L. borgpetersenii, one was L. interrogans, and one was L. kirschneri. Positive predictive values of FAT and rt-PCR testing for predicting successful isolation of Leptospira by culture were 88% and 65%, respectively. The isolation and identification of Leptospira spp. in mongooses highlights the potential role of mongooses as a wildlife reservoir of leptospirosis; mongooses could be a source of Leptospira spp. infections for other wildlife, domestic animals, and humans.

The Welsh Food Microbiological Forum and the All-Wales Shopping Basket Sampling Program: a model for the surveillance of microbiological quality in ready-to-eat foods.

In the United Kingdom, the monitoring of microbiological food quality and the prevention of foodborne disease are the responsibility of a number of different organizations. In 1993, to develop and extend ongoing local collaborations within selected local food groups in Wales (comprising local authorities and the Public Health Laboratory Service), the Welsh Office invited all local food groups in Wales to create a forum to coordinate the sampling and examination of ready-to-eat foods and the centralized collection of results for the whole of Wales. This paper describes the development, structure, and aims of the forum. It also discusses the outcomes of the first nine years of activities, describes the randomized sampling program for ready-to-eat foods that has been developed; and assesses the benefits that have resulted.