Drivers of improved PM2.5 air quality in China from 2013 to 2017.

From 2013 to 2017, with the implementation of the toughest-ever clean air policy in China, significant declines in fine particle (PM2.5) concentrations occurred nationwide. Here we estimate the drivers of the improved PM2.5 air quality and the associated health benefits in China from 2013 to 2017 based on a measure-specific integrated evaluation approach, which combines a bottom-up emission inventory, a chemical transport model, and epidemiological exposure-response functions. The estimated national population-weighted annual mean PM2.5 concentrations decreased from 61.8 (95%CI: 53.3-70.0) to 42.0 µg/m3 (95% CI: 35.7-48.6) in 5 y, with dominant contributions from anthropogenic emission abatements. Although interannual meteorological variations could significantly alter PM2.5 concentrations, the corresponding effects on the 5-y trends were relatively small. The measure-by-measure evaluation indicated that strengthening industrial emission standards (power plants and emission-intensive industrial sectors), upgrades on industrial boilers, phasing out outdated industrial capacities, and promoting clean fuels in the residential sector were major effective measures in reducing PM2.5 pollution and health burdens. These measures were estimated to contribute to 6.6- (95% CI: 5.9-7.1), 4.4- (95% CI: 3.8-4.9), 2.8- (95% CI: 2.5-3.0), and 2.2- (95% CI: 2.0-2.5) µg/m3 declines in the national PM2.5 concentration in 2017, respectively, and further reduced PM2.5-attributable excess deaths by 0.37 million (95% CI: 0.35-0.39), or 92% of the total avoided deaths. Our study confirms the effectiveness of China's recent clean air actions, and the measure-by-measure evaluation provides insights into future clean air policy making in China and in other developing and polluting countries.

Comprehensive effects of interdecadal change of sea surface temperature increase in the Indo-Pacific Ocean on the warming-wetting of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau.

The correlation characteristics between anomalous changes in summer precipitation on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP) and the high-impact areas of global sea-surface temperature (SST) are mainly studied in this paper. The results show that the interdecadal change of the regional "warming-wetting" in China is especially prominent in the northern part of the main body of the QTP, which is therefore identified as the high-value area of precipitation variability. Investigations have revealed that the high-value areas of summer precipitation variability in the northern QTP are significantly correlated with four high-value areas of SST variability, namely the western North Pacific, the western Central Pacific, the Southwest Pacific, and the central Indian Ocean. In these four high-impact areas, a synchronous tendency is found in the SST increase and sea-surface specific humidity. Through the tracking analysis of the correlated vectors of the water vapor source for the warming-wetting of the QTP, it further confirms that the four high-value areas of SST variability in the Indo-Pacific Ocean are the major impact sources of water vapor transport for the warming-wetting of the QTP. Moreover, the comparison of the characteristics of various interdecadal global water vapor transport circulations show that from 1991 to 2020, the trans-equatorial water vapor transport from the Southern Hemisphere witnessed a notable increase, which furthermore suggests that the interdecadal change of SST increase in the Southwest Pacific and central Indian Ocean is the key reason for the warming-wetting of the QTP. In addition, a comprehensive image of high-impact marine water vapor sources for modulating the warming-wetting tendency in the QTP is proposed.

Atmospheric transport drives regional interactions of ozone pollution in China.

In recent years, ozone pollution becomes a serious environmental issue in China. A good understanding of source-receptor relationships of ozone transport from aboard and inside China is beneficial to mitigating ozone pollution there. To date, these issues have not been comprehensively assessed, especially for highly polluted regions in the central and eastern China (CEC), including the North China Plain (NCP), Twain-Hu region (THR), Yangtze River Delta (YRD), Pearl River Delta (PRD), and Sichuan Basin (SCB). Here, based on simulations over 2013-2020 from a well-validated chemical transport model, GEOS-Chem, we show that foreign ozone accounts for a large portion of surface ozone over CEC, ranging from 25.0% in THR to 39.4% in NCP. Focusing on transport of domestic ozone between the five regions in CEC, we find that atmospheric transport can largely modulate regional interactions of ozone pollution in China. At the surface, THR receives the largest amount of ozone from the other four regions (54.2% of domestic ozone in the receptor region, the same in below), followed by PRD (32.3%), SCB (26.7%), YRD (21.1%), and NCP (18.0%). Meanwhile, YRD exports largest amount of ozone to the other regions, ranging from 8.9% in SCB to 28.4% in THR. Although SCB is relatively isolated and thus impacts NCP, YRD, and PRD weakly (< 2.2%), export of SCB ozone to THR reaches 9.3%. The regional ozone transport over CEC, occurring mostly in the lower troposphere, is mainly modulated by the East Asian monsoon circulations, proximity between source and receptor regions, seasonal changes of ozone production, and topography.

Anomalous surface O3 changes in North China Plain during the northwestward movement of a landing typhoon.

As high impact weather in a large scale, typhoon movement from the northwest Pacific into inland regions influencing ambient O3 changes is unclear, especially in North China Plain (NCP). A landing Typhoon Ampil during July 17-24, 2018 was studied herein to characterize the surface O3 anomalies during its movement over NCP. Landing typhoons present large negative O3 anomalies at the center of the typhoon and positive O3 anomalies 600-1700 km away from the center. During the northwest movement of Typhoon Ampil to the NCP, the area and magnitude of both positive and negative O3 anomalies shrank, particularly in the western and northern periphery, where the typical diurnal change of O3 dissipated with nocturnal O3 enhancement in the NCP. The spatiotemporal patterns of surface O3 anomalies in the NCP were induced significantly during various stages of typhoon movement with a stable structure in the atmospheric boundary layer, strong solar radiation on sunny days, and stratosphere-to-troposphere transport (STT) in the typhoon periphery, depending on the changing intensity, distance, and orientation of the typhoon center. Among them, the STT played a considerable role and contributed 32% to the positive anomalies of surface O3 in the NCP. Under the influence of westerly jets and high pressure at mid-latitudes on the typhoon movement, strong wind convergences in the upper troposphere were formed intensifying the downdraft of O3-rich stratospheric air to the boundary layer in the NCP with an asymmetrical distribution of surface positive O3 anomalies over the periphery of typhoon. This study could improve our understanding of regional ozone changes with meteorological influences.

Distinct impacts of vapor transport from the tropical oceans on the regional glacier retreat over the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau.

An influence of precipitation on the glacier changes over the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP) is investigated in this paper. The results show that the glacial loss rates of glaciers in the QTP are significantly correlated with the interannual changes of precipitation and low cloud cover. The water vapor, importing with the warm and wet airflows from the Asian Monsoon regions, significantly influence the precipitation in the southern and northern glacier areas of the QTP in the summer monsoon season. The three-dimensional changes of water vapor transport can lead to the difference of water balance between different glacier areas. Under global warming, the northwest QTP is in the ascending branch of the vertical water driven thermally by the tropical Indian Ocean. The warm water vapor from the tropical ocean climbs to the QTP, forming a significant supply effect of precipitation in the northwestern glacier area, which makes the glacier retreat at a relatively slow rate. Meanwhile, the southern and southeastern QTP regions are in the descending branch of vapor transport with the declining trend in the lower troposphere, which lead to the shortage water supply aggravating the glacier loss in the southern and southeastern QTP.

Impact of "blocking" structure in the troposphere on the wintertime persistent heavy air pollution in northern China.

In the winters of 2012-2018, a total of 25 'ultra-long' (≥6 days), wide-ranging pollution events occurred in northern China. The results showed that the atmospheric circulation pattern corresponding to 62.5% of the persistent 'most serious' and 'more serious' air pollution events in northern China were the blocking structures, and that 43.75% of the 500-hPa atmospheric circulation anomalies in the middle and high latitudes of Eurasia were 'dual-blocking', 18.75% of them were 'single-blocking'. The abnormally stable blocking situation provided a special circulation background for the occurrence and maintenance of persistent heavy air pollution in northern China. The Okhotsk blocking is significantly positively correlated with the persistent 'most serious' air pollution events. 'Stagnation' of the blocking system and its dynamic effect play an important role in regulating atmospheric environmental capacity and accelerating the accumulation of aerosols during the persistent heavy pollution episodes. Due to the synergy between the weak wind effect of the leeward slope on the eastern side of the Loess Plateau in this region and the downward airflow of the large-scale blocking system, the effect of sustained suppression of atmospheric pollutant diffusion in northern China is more significant. The downward air flow along the eastern leeward slope of the Loess Plateau is very important for accumulation of air pollutants, which is controlled by the tropospheric blocking high. In addition, the 'subsidence (temperature) inversion' effect produced by the synergy between the downward airflow of the eastern leeward slope of the Loess Plateau and the large-scale blocking system creates a continuous and stable 'warm-cover' structure in the middle of the troposphere on the eastern of the Loess Plateau; this effect strengthens the radiation effect of aerosols in the atmospheric pollutants, as well as the 'two-way feedback' mechanism between adverse meteorological conditions in the boundary layer and atmospheric pollutants.

Land-surface processes and summer-cloud-precipitation characteristics in the Tibetan Plateau and their effects on downstream weather: a review and perspective.

Correct understanding of the land-surface processes and cloud-precipitation processes in the Tibetan Plateau (TP) is an important prerequisite for the study and forecast of the downstream activities of weather systems and one of the key points for understanding the global atmospheric movement. In order to show the achievements that have been made, this paper reviews the progress on the observations for the atmospheric boundary layer, land-surface heat fluxes, cloud-precipitation distributions and vertical structures by using ground- and space-based multiplatform, multisensor instruments and the effect of the cloud system in the TP on the downstream weather. The results show that the form drag related to the topography, land-atmosphere momentum and scalar fluxes is an important part of the parameterization process. The sensible heat flux decreased especially in the central and northern TP caused by the decrease in wind speeds and the differences in the ground-air temperatures. Observations show that the cloud and precipitation over the TP have a strong diurnal variation. Studies also show the compressed-air column in the troposphere by the higher-altitude terrain of the TP makes particles inside clouds vary at a shorter distance in the vertical direction than those in the non-plateau area so that precipitation intensity over the TP is usually small with short duration, and the vertical structure of the convective precipitation over the TP is obviously different from that in other regions. In addition, the influence of the TP on severe weather downstream is preliminarily understood from the mechanism. It is necessary to use model simulations and observation techniques to reveal the difference between cloud precipitation in the TP and non-plateau areas in order to understand the cloud microphysical parameters over the TP and the processes of the land boundary layer affecting cloud, precipitation and weather in the downstream regions.

Changes in ammonia and its effects on PM2.5 chemical property in three winter seasons in Beijing, China.

NH3, SO2, NOx and the inorganic ions of PM2.5 in winter 2009, 2014 and 2016 were examined to investigate the change in NH3 and aerosol chemistry in Beijing, China. NH3 concentrations showed an increase by 59% on average, in contrast to the decrease of SO2 by 63% from winter 2009 to 2016. The mean mass ratio of NH3/NHx was 0.83 ± 0.12 in 2016, which is higher than those obtained in 2009 and 2014, implying more NHx remaining as free NH3 in 2016 winter. Our findings suggest that vehicles exhaust emissions are an important NH3 source in urban central atmosphere of Beijing in winter. Despite the observed NOx presenting declining trends from 2014 to 2016, nitrate concentrations even exhibited a significant increasing trend, which may be largely attributable to high NH3 levels. An in-depth analysis of measured NH3 and aerosol species in a heavy pollution episode in December 2016, combined with the acidity predicted by ISORROPIA II model demonstrated abundant NH3 most of the time in air, where NH3 is not only a precursor for NH4+ but also effect the neutralization of SO42- and NO3- in PM2.5. With high RH and low photochemical activity, elevated NO3- concentration was attributed to an enhanced heterogeneous conversion of NOx to HNO3 to form NH4NO3 in pollution transport stage. The decrease in NOx from high level and the increase in NH3, with peaks of SO42- occurring were observed in pollution cumulative stage. The aqueous-phase oxidation of SO2 by NO2 to sulfate might play an important role with high pH values. Our results suggested that the simultaneous control of NH3 emissions in conjunction with SO2 and NOx emissions would be more effective in reducing particulate matter PM2.5 formation.

Lidar data assimilation method based on CRTM and WRF-Chem models and its application in PM2.5 forecasts in Beijing.

A three-dimensional variational (3DVAR) lidar data assimilation method is developed based on the Community Radiative Transfer Model (CRTM) and Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled to Chemistry (WRF-Chem) model. A 3DVAR data assimilation (DA) system using lidar extinction coefficient observation data is established, and variables from the Model for Simulating Aerosol Interactions and Chemistry (MOSAIC) mechanism of the WRF-Chem model are employed. Hourly lidar extinction coefficient data from 12:00 to 18:00 UTC on March 13, 2018 at four stations in Beijing are assimilated into the initial field of the WRF-Chem model; subsequently, a 24 h PM2.5 concentration forecast is made. Results indicate that assimilating lidar data can effectively improve the subsequent forecast. PM2.5 forecasts without using lidar DA are remarkably underestimated, particularly during heavy haze periods; in contrast, forecasts of PM2.5 concentrations with lidar DA are closer to observations, the model low bias is evidently reduced, and the vertical distribution of the PM2.5 concentration in Beijing is distinctly improved from the surface to 1200 m. Of the five aerosol species, improvements of NO3- are the most significant. The correlation coefficient between PM2.5 concentration forecasts with lidar DA and observations at 12 stations in Beijing is increased by 0.45, and the corresponding average RMSE is decreased by 25 µg·m-3, which respectively compared to those without DA.

The characteristics of abnormal wintertime pollution events in the Jing-Jin-Ji region and its relationships with meteorological factors.

Despite the implementation of strict air pollution control measures in recent years, severe haze events were still encountered in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (Jing-Jin-Ji) region during the winter 2016. In this work, seasonal differences in correlations between air pollution and geographic terrain, atmospheric dynamical and thermal structures, and PBL height over the Jing-Jin-Ji region in history and recent years were investigated and a comprehensive model of atmospheric factors affecting winter air pollution formation was proposed. We found that the distribution of PM2.5 concentration closely correlated with the topography feature of China and the difference in haze pollution intensity between winter and other seasons was the most significant in the Jing-Jin-Ji region. The "semi-enclosed" terrain along with the enhanced winter "downdraft" strongly inhibited the diffusion and convection of air pollutants in this region. Meanwhile, seasonal variations of the vertical thermal structure over the Jing-Jin-Ji region, i.e., the anomalous pattern of "upper warming and bottom cooling" structure in the middle troposphere, and the "weak wind zone" were more distinct in winter 2016 than historical record, providing an important precondition for the frequent occurrence of thermal inversion layers and severe pollution episodes in the lower troposphere. In addition, abnormally low PBL heights occurred in the Jing-Jin-Ji region during severe pollutant episodes in winter 2016, with mean postmeridian PBL height in December of only 869.4 m, the minimum value since 2013. PM2.5 concentration was not only closely related to PBL height but also the "warm cover" structure in the middle troposphere. The stronger the structure was, the lower the PBL height became, and severer the pollution event was encountered, accompanying water vapor accumulation and intensification of the thermal inversion layer in the lower troposphere. All above observations revealed the mutual feedback correlations between air pollutants concentration and meteorological factors.

Spatio-temporal variations in SO2 and NO2 emissions caused by heating over the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region constrained by an adaptive nudging method with OMI data.

The Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region in China suffers from heavy air pollution, especially in heating period. SO2 and NO2 are two of the key primary gaseous pollutants emitted by coal burning. The increase in air pollution caused by heating in the south-central part of the BTH region is higher than that in the northern part. And the distribution of SO2 and NO2 increment has significant differences. In this work, SO2 and NO2 emissions over the BTH region are determined using an adaptive "nudging" constrained method and a variational processing technique based on Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) satellite data and surface measurement data collected in 2015. The application of the method can provide reliable, up-to-date and high-resolution mapping of sources of SO2 and NO2 emissions. These SO2 and NO2 emissions reflect the spatial differences in point and area sources in urban agglomerations and rural areas under different meteorological conditions during the non-heating and heating seasons. The intensity and influence of SO2 and NO2 emissions, particularly those of SO2, are significantly greater during the heating season than those during the non-heating season. Winter increases in SO2 emissions in the northern areas of the BTH region are larger than those in the southern part. In addition, significant increases in SO2 emissions occur mainly in suburban and rural areas, while those of NO2 emissions mainly occur in urban agglomerations. In the major urban areas, where coal has been replaced by natural gas or electric power for heating, winter heating causes much smaller increases in SO2 emissions than in other areas. The large amounts of bulk coal consumption in the suburban and rural areas could cause significant regional air pollution. Clear increases in SO2 and NO2 emissions in winter occur along a belt from southern Beijing to Langfang, Baoding, Shijiazhuang and Xingtai, which is consistent with a special "quasi-steady" air pollutant transport belt in the region. All above results show that the adaptive "nudging" constrained emission method could be an effective tool for air pollution control during certain seasons.

Numerical simulations of the effects of regional topography on haze pollution in Beijing.

In addition to weather conditions and pollutant emissions, the degree to which topography influences the occurrence and development of haze pollution in downtown Beijing and the mechanisms that may be involved remain open questions. A series of atmospheric chemistry simulations are executed by using the online-coupled Weather Research and Forecasting with Chemistry (WRF-Chem) model for November-December 2015 with different hypothetical topographic height scenarios. The simulation results show that topography exerts an important influence on haze pollution in downtown Beijing, particularly the typical development of haze pollution. A possible mechanism that underlies the response of haze pollution to topography is that the mountains that surround Beijing tend to produce anomalous southerly winds, high relative humidity, low boundary layer heights, and sinking motion over most of Beijing. These conditions favor the formation and development of haze pollution in downtown Beijing. Furthermore, the reduction percentage in PM2.5 concentrations due to reduced terrain height in the southerly wind (S) mode is almost three times larger than that in the northerly wind (N) mode. In the context of the regional topography, the simple S and N modes represent useful indicators for haze prediction in Beijing to some extent, especially over medium to long time scales.

[Variations in Aerosol Optical Depth over Three Northeastern Provinces of China, in 2003-2014].

Based on the MODIS-Aqua aerosol optical depth (AOD) products from 2003 to 2014, Nighttime Lights Time data from DMSP satellites and basic meteorological data, the AOD spatial distributions of interannual and seasonal variations over three northeastern provinces of China(Liaoning, Jilin, Heilongjiang) were analyzed. It was found that there was a northeast-southwest area of high annual average AOD composed of Dalian, Shenyang, Changchun, Harbin and other cities, the 12-year average AOD value was 0.4-0.8. The low AOD occurred in the eastern and northern areas of the three northeastern provinces of China, where the forest-covering rate was high, and the 12-year average AOD value was less than 0.3. The seasonal variations of annual average AOD showed an increasing trend from spring to summer, then decreased in autumn and increased again in winter. The interannual variations of AOD over three northeastern provinces of China showed a decreasing trend in most areas, but the increasing trend occurred in the northeast-southwest region with the axis formed by Shenyang, Changchun and Harbin, revealing the polarization in recent 10 years over three northeastern provinces of China. In addition, spatial distribution of annual average AOD over three northeastern provinces of China in the years of strong and weak Western North Pacific Summer Monsoon was studied. Affected by the surface wind field, annual average AOD in weak monsoon years was higher than that in strong monsoon years.

On the mechanisms of the recurvature of super typhoon Megi.

Tropical cyclones (TC) are one of the most threatening natural hazards to human beings. Although significant improvements have been made in the track prediction of TCs during the past several decades, considerable uncertainties still exist, especially for recurving tracks. In this study, we explore the physical mechanisms that drove the large recurvature of super typhoon Megi through numerical sensitivity experiments using a regional atmospheric model. The results indicate that the cold air intrusion from the northwest to the southeast of China is the main cause of the sharp turning of Megi. This finding suggests that a cold air intrusion could be taken as an indicator for predicting the recurvature of a tropical cyclone in the future.

Does warmer China land attract more super typhoons?

Accurate prediction of where and when typhoons (or named hurricanes which form over the North Atlantic Ocean) will make landfall is critical to protecting human lives and properties. Although the traditional method of typhoon track prediction based on the steering flow theory has been proven to be an effective way in most situations, it slipped up in some cases. Our analysis of the long-term Chinese typhoon records reveals that typhoons, especially super typhoons (those with maximum sustained surface winds of greater than 51 ms(-1)), have a trend to make landfalls toward warmer land in China over the past 50 years (1960-2009). Numerical sensitivity experiments using an advanced atmospheric model further confirm this finding. Our finding suggests an alternative approach to predict the landfall tracks of the most devastating typhoons in the southeastern China.