MRSL: a causal network pruning algorithm based on GWAS summary data.

Causal discovery is a powerful tool to disclose underlying structures by analyzing purely observational data. Genetic variants can provide useful complementary information for structure learning. Recently, Mendelian randomization (MR) studies have provided abundant marginal causal relationships of traits. Here, we propose a causal network pruning algorithm MRSL (MR-based structure learning algorithm) based on these marginal causal relationships. MRSL combines the graph theory with multivariable MR to learn the conditional causal structure using only genome-wide association analyses (GWAS) summary statistics. Specifically, MRSL utilizes topological sorting to improve the precision of structure learning. It proposes MR-separation instead of d-separation and three candidates of sufficient separating set for MR-separation. The results of simulations revealed that MRSL had up to 2-fold higher F1 score and 100 times faster computing time than other eight competitive methods. Furthermore, we applied MRSL to 26 biomarkers and 44 International Classification of Diseases 10 (ICD10)-defined diseases using GWAS summary data from UK Biobank. The results cover most of the expected causal links that have biological interpretations and several new links supported by clinical case reports or previous observational literatures.

MPI-VGAE: protein-metabolite enzymatic reaction link learning by variational graph autoencoders.

Enzymatic reactions are crucial to explore the mechanistic function of metabolites and proteins in cellular processes and to understand the etiology of diseases. The increasing number of interconnected metabolic reactions allows the development of in silico deep learning-based methods to discover new enzymatic reaction links between metabolites and proteins to further expand the landscape of existing metabolite-protein interactome. Computational approaches to predict the enzymatic reaction link by metabolite-protein interaction (MPI) prediction are still very limited. In this study, we developed a Variational Graph Autoencoders (VGAE)-based framework to predict MPI in genome-scale heterogeneous enzymatic reaction networks across ten organisms. By incorporating molecular features of metabolites and proteins as well as neighboring information in the MPI networks, our MPI-VGAE predictor achieved the best predictive performance compared to other machine learning methods. Moreover, when applying the MPI-VGAE framework to reconstruct hundreds of metabolic pathways, functional enzymatic reaction networks and a metabolite-metabolite interaction network, our method showed the most robust performance among all scenarios. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first MPI predictor by VGAE for enzymatic reaction link prediction. Furthermore, we implemented the MPI-VGAE framework to reconstruct the disease-specific MPI network based on the disrupted metabolites and proteins in Alzheimer's disease and colorectal cancer, respectively. A substantial number of novel enzymatic reaction links were identified. We further validated and explored the interactions of these enzymatic reactions using molecular docking. These results highlight the potential of the MPI-VGAE framework for the discovery of novel disease-related enzymatic reactions and facilitate the study of the disrupted metabolisms in diseases.

Impact of nonrandom selection mechanisms on the causal effect estimation for two-sample Mendelian randomization methods.

Nonrandom selection in one-sample Mendelian Randomization (MR) results in biased estimates and inflated type I error rates only when the selection effects are sufficiently large. In two-sample MR, the different selection mechanisms in two samples may more seriously affect the causal effect estimation. Firstly, we propose sufficient conditions for causal effect invariance under different selection mechanisms using two-sample MR methods. In the simulation study, we consider 49 possible selection mechanisms in two-sample MR, which depend on genetic variants (G), exposures (X), outcomes (Y) and their combination. We further compare eight pleiotropy-robust methods under different selection mechanisms. Results of simulation reveal that nonrandom selection in sample II has a larger influence on biases and type I error rates than those in sample I. Furthermore, selections depending on X+Y, G+Y, or G+X+Y in sample II lead to larger biases than other selection mechanisms. Notably, when selection depends on Y, bias of causal estimation for non-zero causal effect is larger than that for null causal effect. Especially, the mode based estimate has the largest standard errors among the eight methods. In the absence of pleiotropy, selections depending on Y or G in sample II show nearly unbiased causal effect estimations when the casual effect is null. In the scenarios of balanced pleiotropy, all eight MR methods, especially MR-Egger, demonstrate large biases because the nonrandom selections result in the violation of the Instrument Strength Independent of Direct Effect (InSIDE) assumption. When directional pleiotropy exists, nonrandom selections have a severe impact on the eight MR methods. Application demonstrates that the nonrandom selection in sample II (coronary heart disease patients) can magnify the causal effect estimation of obesity on HbA1c levels. In conclusion, nonrandom selection in two-sample MR exacerbates the bias of causal effect estimation for pleiotropy-robust MR methods.

Metabolites, Healthy Lifestyle, and Polygenic Risk Score Associated with Upper Gastrointestinal Cancer: Findings from the UK Biobank Study.

Previous metabolomics studies have highlighted the predictive value of metabolites on upper gastrointestinal (UGI) cancer, while most of them ignored the potential effects of lifestyle and genetic risk on plasma metabolites. This study aimed to evaluate the role of lifestyle and genetic risk in the metabolic mechanism of UGI cancer. Differential metabolites of UGI cancer were identified using partial least-squares discriminant analysis and the Wilcoxon test. Then, we calculated the healthy lifestyle index (HLI) score and polygenic risk score (PRS) and divided them into three groups, respectively. A total of 15 metabolites were identified as UGI-cancer-related differential metabolites. The metabolite model (AUC = 0.699) exhibited superior discrimination ability compared to those of the HLI model (AUC = 0.615) and the PRS model (AUC = 0.593). Moreover, subgroup analysis revealed that the metabolite model showed higher discrimination ability for individuals with unhealthy lifestyles compared to that with healthy individuals (AUC = 0.783 vs 0.684). Furthermore, in the genetic risk subgroup analysis, individuals with a genetic predisposition to UGI cancer exhibited the best discriminative performance in the metabolite model (AUC = 0.770). These findings demonstrated the clinical significance of metabolic biomarkers in UGI cancer discrimination, especially in individuals with unhealthy lifestyles and a high genetic risk.

Multi-trait transcriptome-wide association studies with probabilistic Mendelian randomization.

A transcriptome-wide association study (TWAS) integrates data from genome-wide association studies and gene expression mapping studies for investigating the gene regulatory mechanisms underlying diseases. Existing TWAS methods are primarily univariate in nature, focusing on analyzing one outcome trait at a time. However, many complex traits are correlated with each other and share a common genetic basis. Consequently, analyzing multiple traits jointly through multivariate analysis can potentially improve the power of TWASs. Here, we develop a method, moPMR-Egger (multiple outcome probabilistic Mendelian randomization with Egger assumption), for analyzing multiple outcome traits in TWAS applications. moPMR-Egger examines one gene at a time, relies on its cis-SNPs that are in potential linkage disequilibrium with each other to serve as instrumental variables, and tests its causal effects on multiple traits jointly. A key feature of moPMR-Egger is its ability to test and control for potential horizontal pleiotropic effects from instruments, thus maximizing power while minimizing false associations for TWASs. In simulations, moPMR-Egger provides calibrated type I error control for both causal effects testing and horizontal pleiotropic effects testing and is more powerful than existing univariate TWAS approaches in detecting causal associations. We apply moPMR-Egger to analyze 11 traits from 5 trait categories in the UK Biobank. In the analysis, moPMR-Egger identified 13.15% more gene associations than univariate approaches across trait categories and revealed distinct regulatory mechanisms underlying systolic and diastolic blood pressures.

Signaling repurposable drug combinations against COVID-19 by developing the heterogeneous deep herb-graph method.

BACKGROUND: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has spurred a boom in uncovering repurposable existing drugs. Drug repurposing is a strategy for identifying new uses for approved or investigational drugs that are outside the scope of the original medical indication. MOTIVATION: Current works of drug repurposing for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) are mostly limited to only focusing on chemical medicines, analysis of single drug targeting single SARS-CoV-2 protein, one-size-fits-all strategy using the same treatment (same drug) for different infected stages of SARS-CoV-2. To dilute these issues, we initially set the research focusing on herbal medicines. We then proposed a heterogeneous graph embedding method to signaled candidate repurposing herbs for each SARS-CoV-2 protein, and employed the variational graph convolutional network approach to recommend the precision herb combinations as the potential candidate treatments against the specific infected stage. METHOD: We initially employed the virtual screening method to construct the 'Herb-Compound' and 'Compound-Protein' docking graph based on 480 herbal medicines, 12,735 associated chemical compounds and 24 SARS-CoV-2 proteins. Sequentially, the 'Herb-Compound-Protein' heterogeneous network was constructed by means of the metapath-based embedding approach. We then proposed the heterogeneous-information-network-based graph embedding method to generate the candidate ranking lists of herbs that target structural, nonstructural and accessory SARS-CoV-2 proteins, individually. To obtain precision synthetic effective treatments forvarious COVID-19 infected stages, we employed the variational graph convolutional network method to generate candidate herb combinations as the recommended therapeutic therapies. RESULTS: There were 24 ranking lists, each containing top-10 herbs, targeting 24 SARS-CoV-2 proteins correspondingly, and 20 herb combinations were generated as the candidate-specific treatment to target the four infected stages. The code and supplementary materials are freely available at https://github.com/fanyang-AI/TCM-COVID19.

Personalized prediction for multiple chronic diseases by developing the multi-task Cox learning model.

Personalized prediction of chronic diseases is crucial for reducing the disease burden. However, previous studies on chronic diseases have not adequately considered the relationship between chronic diseases. To explore the patient-wise risk of multiple chronic diseases, we developed a multitask learning Cox (MTL-Cox) model for personalized prediction of nine typical chronic diseases on the UK Biobank dataset. MTL-Cox employs a multitask learning framework to train semiparametric multivariable Cox models. To comprehensively estimate the performance of the MTL-Cox model, we measured it via five commonly used survival analysis metrics: concordance index, area under the curve (AUC), specificity, sensitivity, and Youden index. In addition, we verified the validity of the MTL-Cox model framework in the Weihai physical examination dataset, from Shandong province, China. The MTL-Cox model achieved a statistically significant (p<0.05) improvement in results compared with competing methods in the evaluation metrics of the concordance index, AUC, sensitivity, and Youden index using the paired-sample Wilcoxon signed-rank test. In particular, the MTL-Cox model improved prediction accuracy by up to 12% compared to other models. We also applied the MTL-Cox model to rank the absolute risk of nine chronic diseases in patients on the UK Biobank dataset. This was the first known study to use the multitask learning-based Cox model to predict the personalized risk of the nine chronic diseases. The study can contribute to early screening, personalized risk ranking, and diagnosing of chronic diseases.

Differential network knockoff filter with application to brain connectivity analysis.

The brain functional connectivity can typically be represented as a brain functional network, where nodes represent regions of interest (ROIs) and edges symbolize their connections. Studying group differences in brain functional connectivity can help identify brain regions and recover the brain functional network linked to neurodegenerative diseases. This process, known as differential network analysis focuses on the differences between estimated precision matrices for two groups. Current methods struggle with individual heterogeneity in measuring the brain connectivity, false discovery rate (FDR) control, and accounting for confounding factors, resulting in biased estimates and diminished power. To address these issues, we present a two-stage FDR-controlled feature selection method for differential network analysis using functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) data. First, we create individual brain connectivity measures using a high-dimensional precision matrix estimation technique. Next, we devise a penalized logistic regression model that employs individual brain connectivity data and integrates a new knockoff filter for FDR control when detecting significant differential edges. Through extensive simulations, we showcase the superiority of our approach compared to other methods. Additionally, we apply our technique to fMRI data to identify differential edges between Alzheimer's disease and control groups. Our results are consistent with prior experimental studies, emphasizing the practical applicability of our method.

Predicting lung cancer survival prognosis based on the conditional survival bayesian network.

Lung cancer is a leading cause of cancer deaths and imposes an enormous economic burden on patients. It is important to develop an accurate risk assessment model to determine the appropriate treatment for patients after an initial lung cancer diagnosis. The Cox proportional hazards model is mainly employed in survival analysis. However, real-world medical data are usually incomplete, posing a great challenge to the application of this model. Commonly used imputation methods cannot achieve sufficient accuracy when data are missing, so we investigated novel methods for the development of clinical prediction models. In this article, we present a novel model for survival prediction in missing scenarios. We collected data from 5,240 patients diagnosed with lung cancer at the Weihai Municipal Hospital, China. Then, we applied a joint model that combined a BN and a Cox model to predict mortality risk in individual patients with lung cancer. The established prognostic model achieved good predictive performance in discrimination and calibration. We showed that combining the BN with the Cox proportional hazards model is highly beneficial and provides a more efficient tool for risk prediction.

Greenness mitigate cause-specific mortality associated with air pollutants in ischemic and hemorrhagic stroke patients: An ecological health cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Air pollution is one of the most serious environmental risks to mortality of stroke. However, there exists a noteworthy knowledge gap concerning the different stroke subtypes, causes of death, the susceptibility of stroke patient, and the role of greenness in this context. METHODS: We analyzed data from an ecological health cohort, which included 334,261 patients aged ≥40 years with stroke (comprising 288,490 ischemic stroke and 45,771 hemorrhagic stroke) during the period 2013-2019. We used Cox proportional hazards models with time-varying exposure to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) to assess the associations of annual average fine particulate matter (PM2.5), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), and ozone (O3) with both all-cause and cause-specific mortality. Additionally, we conducted analyses to examine the effect modification by greenness and identify potential susceptibility factors through subgroup analyses. RESULT: In multivariable-adjusted models, long-term exposure to PM2.5 and NO2 was associated with increased risk of all-cause mortality (HR: 1.038, 95% CI: 1.029-1.047 for PM2.5; HR: 1.055, 95% CI: 1.026-1.085 for NO2, per 10 µg/m3, for ischemic stroke patients; similar for hemorrhagic stroke patients). Gradually increasing effect sizes were shown for CVD mortality and stroke mortality. The HRs of mortality were slightly weaker with high versus low vegetation exposure. Cumulative exposures increased the HRs of pollutant-related mortality, and greater greenness decreased this risk. Two subtypes of stroke patients exhibited diverse patterns of benefit. CONCLUSION: Increasing residential greenness attenuates the increased risk of mortality with different patterns due to chronic air pollutants for ischemic and hemorrhagic stroke, offering valuable insights for precise tertiary stroke prevention strategies.

Ideal cardiovascular health and risk of death in a large Swedish cohort.

BACKGROUND: Ideal cardiovascular health (CVH) can be assessed by 7 metrics: smoking, body mass index, physical activity, diet, hypertension, dyslipidemia and diabetes, proposed by the American Heart Association. We examined the association of ideal CVH metrics with risk of all-cause, CVD and non-CVD death in a large cohort. METHODS: A total of 29,557 participants in the Swedish National March Cohort were included in this study. We ascertained 3,799 deaths during a median follow-up of 19 years. Cox regression models were used to estimate hazard ratios with 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs) of the association between CVH metrics with risk of death. Laplace regression was used to estimate 25th, 50th and 75th percentiles of age at death. RESULTS: Compared with those having 6-7 ideal CVH metrics, participants with 0-2 ideal metrics had 107% (95% CI = 46-192%) excess risk of all-cause, 224% (95% CI = 72-509%) excess risk of CVD and 108% (31-231%) excess risk of non-CVD death. The median age at death among those with 6-7 vs. 0-2 ideal metrics was extended by 4.2 years for all-causes, 5.8 years for CVD and 2.9 years for non-CVD, respectively. The observed associations were stronger among females than males. CONCLUSIONS: The strong inverse association between number of ideal CVH metrics and risk of death supports the application of the proposed seven metrics for individual risk assessment and general health promotion.

Comorbidity increases the risk of pulmonary tuberculosis: a nested case-control study using multi-source big data.

BACKGROUND: Some medical conditions may increase the risk of developing pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB); however, no systematic study on PTB-associated comorbidities and comorbidity clusters has been undertaken. METHODS: A nested case-control study was conducted from 2013 to 2017 using multi-source big data. We defined cases as patients with incident PTB, and we matched each case with four event-free controls using propensity score matching (PSM). Comorbidities diagnosed prior to PTB were defined with the International Classification of Diseases-10 (ICD-10). The longitudinal relationships between multimorbidity burden and PTB were analyzed using a generalized estimating equation. The associations between PTB and 30 comorbidities were examined using conditional logistic regression, and the comorbidity clusters were identified using network analysis. RESULTS: A total of 4265 cases and 17,060 controls were enrolled during the study period. A total of 849 (19.91%) cases and 1141 (6.69%) controls were multimorbid before the index date. Having 1, 2, and ≥ 3 comorbidities was associated with an increased risk of PTB (aOR 2.85-5.16). Fourteen out of thirty comorbidities were significantly associated with PTB (aOR 1.28-7.27), and the associations differed by sex and age. Network analysis identified three major clusters, mainly in the respiratory, circulatory, and endocrine/metabolic systems, in PTB cases. CONCLUSIONS: Certain comorbidities involving multiple systems may significantly increase the risk of PTB. Enhanced awareness and surveillance of comorbidity are warranted to ensure early prevention and timely control of PTB.

Protein-centric omics integration analysis identifies candidate plasma proteins for multiple autoimmune diseases.

It remains challenging to translate the findings from genome-wide association studies (GWAS) of autoimmune diseases (AIDs) into interventional targets, presumably due to the lack of knowledge on how the GWAS risk variants contribute to AIDs. In addition, current immunomodulatory drugs for AIDs are broad in action rather than disease-specific. We performed a comprehensive protein-centric omics integration analysis to identify AIDs-associated plasma proteins through integrating protein quantitative trait loci datasets of plasma protein (1348 proteins and 7213 individuals) and totally ten large-scale GWAS summary statistics of AIDs under a cutting-edge systematic analytic framework. Specifically, we initially screened out the protein-AID associations using proteome-wide association study (PWAS), followed by enrichment analysis to reveal the underlying biological processes and pathways. Then, we performed both Mendelian randomization (MR) and colocalization analyses to further identify protein-AID pairs with putatively causal relationships. We finally prioritized the potential drug targets for AIDs. A total of 174 protein-AID associations were identified by PWAS. AIDs-associated plasma proteins were significantly enriched in immune-related biological process and pathways, such as inflammatory response (P = 3.96 × 10-10). MR analysis further identified 97 protein-AID pairs with potential causal relationships, among which 21 pairs were highly supported by colocalization analysis (PP.H4 > 0.75), 10 of 21 were the newly discovered pairs and not reported in previous GWAS analyses. Further explorations showed that four proteins (TLR3, FCGR2A, IL23R, TCN1) have corresponding drugs, and 17 proteins have druggability. These findings will help us to further understand the biological mechanism of AIDs and highlight the potential of these proteins to develop as therapeutic targets for AIDs.

Mendelian randomization under the omnigenic architecture.

Mendelian randomization (MR) is a common analytic tool for exploring the causal relationship among complex traits. Existing MR methods require selecting a small set of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) to serve as instrument variables. However, selecting a small set of SNPs may not be ideal, as most complex traits have a polygenic or omnigenic architecture and are each influenced by thousands of SNPs. Here, motivated by the recent omnigenic hypothesis, we present an MR method that uses all genome-wide SNPs for causal inference. Our method uses summary statistics from genome-wide association studies as input, accommodates the commonly encountered horizontal pleiotropy effects and relies on a composite likelihood framework for scalable computation. We refer to our method as the omnigenic Mendelian randomization, or OMR. We examine the power and robustness of OMR through extensive simulations including those under various modeling misspecifications. We apply OMR to several real data applications, where we identify multiple complex traits that potentially causally influence coronary artery disease (CAD) and asthma. The identified new associations reveal important roles of blood lipids, blood pressure and immunity underlying CAD as well as important roles of immunity and obesity underlying asthma.

Causal associations between female reproductive behaviors and psychiatric disorders: a lifecourse Mendelian randomization study.

BACKGROUND: The timings of reproductive life events have been examined to be associated with various psychiatric disorders. However, studies have not considered the causal pathways from reproductive behaviors to different psychiatric disorders. This study aimed to investigate the nature of the relationships between five reproductive behaviors and twelve psychiatric disorders. METHODS: Firstly, we calculated genetic correlations between reproductive factors and psychiatric disorders. Then two-sample Mendelian randomization (MR) was conducted to estimate the causal associations among five reproductive behaviors, and these reproductive behaviors on twelve psychiatric disorders, using genome-wide association study (GWAS) summary data from genetic consortia. Multivariable MR was then applied to evaluate the direct effect of reproductive behaviors on these psychiatric disorders whilst accounting for other reproductive factors at different life periods. RESULTS: Univariable MR analyses provide evidence that age at menarche, age at first sexual intercourse and age at first birth have effects on one (depression), seven (anxiety disorder, ADHD, bipolar disorder, bipolar disorder II, depression, PTSD and schizophrenia) and three psychiatric disorders (ADHD, depression and PTSD) (based on p<7.14×10-4), respectively. However, after performing multivariable MR, only age at first sexual intercourse has direct effects on five psychiatric disorders (Depression, Attention deficit or hyperactivity disorder, Bipolar disorder, Posttraumatic stress disorder and schizophrenia) when accounting for other reproductive behaviors with significant effects in univariable analyses. CONCLUSION: Our findings suggest that reproductive behaviors predominantly exert their detrimental effects on psychiatric disorders and age at first sexual intercourse has direct effects on psychiatric disorders.

Relationships of sleep traits with prostate cancer risk: A prospective study of 213,999 UK Biobank participants.

BACKGROUND: The effect of sleep on the occurrence of prostate cancer (PCa) remains unclear. This study explored the influence of sleep traits on the incidence of PCa using a UK Biobank cohort study. METHODS: In this prospective cohort study, 213,999 individuals free of PCa at recruitment from UK Biobank were included. Missing data were imputed using multiple imputation by chained equations. Cox proportional hazards models were used to calculate the adjusted hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals for PCa (6747 incident cases) across seven sleep traits (sleep duration, chronotype, insomnia, snoring, nap, difficulty to get up in the morning, and daytime sleepiness). In addition, we newly created a healthy sleep quality score according to sleep traits to assess the impact of the overall status of night and daytime sleep on PCa development. E values were used to assess unmeasured confounding. RESULTS: We identified 6747 incident cases, of which 344 died from PCa. Participants who usually suffered from insomnia had a higher risk of PCa (hazard ratio [HR]: 1.11; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.04-1.19, E value: 1.46). Finding it fairly easy to get up in the morning was also positively associated with PCa (HR: 1.09; 95% CI: 1.04-1.15, E value: 1.40). Usually having a nap was associated with a lower risk of PCa (HR: 0.91; 95% CI: 0.83-0.99, E value: 1.42). CONCLUSIONS: Fairly easy to get up in the morning and usually experiencing insomnia were associated with an increased incidence of PCa. Moreover, usually having a nap was associated with a lower risk of PCa. Therefore, sleep behaviors are modifiable risk factors that may have a potential impact on PCa risk.

Subclones of bone marrow CD34+ cells in acute myeloid leukemia at diagnosis confer responses of patients to induction chemotherapy.

BACKGROUND: Acute myeloid leukemia (AML) is a hematopoietic malignancy with a prognosis that varies with genetic heterogeneity of hematopoietic stem/progenitor cells (HSPCs). Induction chemotherapy with cytarabine and anthracycline has been the standard care for newly diagnosed AML, but about 30% of patients have no response to this regimen. The resistance mechanisms require deeper understanding. METHODS: In our study, using single-cell RNA sequencing, we analyzed the heterogeneity of bone marrow CD34+ cells from newly diagnosed patients with AML who were then divided into sensitive and resistant groups according to their responses to induction chemotherapy with cytarabine and anthracycline. We verified our findings by TCGA database, GEO datasets, and multiparameter flow cytometry. RESULTS: We established a landscape for AML CD34+ cells and identified HSPC types based on the lineage signature genes. Interestingly, we found a cell population with CRIP1high LGALS1high S100Ashigh showing features of granulocyte-monocyte progenitors was associated with poor prognosis of AML. And two cell populations marked by CD34+ CD52+ or CD34+ CD74+ DAP12+ were related to good response to induction therapy, showing characteristics of hematopoietic stem cells. CONCLUSION: Our study indicates the subclones of CD34+ cells confers for outcomes of AML and provides biomarkers to predict the response of patients with AML to induction chemotherapy.

SeRenDIP-CE: sequence-based interface prediction for conformational epitopes.

MOTIVATION: Antibodies play an important role in clinical research and biotechnology, with their specificity determined by the interaction with the antigen's epitope region, as a special type of protein-protein interaction (PPI) interface. The ubiquitous availability of sequence data, allows us to predict epitopes from sequence in order to focus time-consuming wet-lab experiments toward the most promising epitope regions. Here, we extend our previously developed sequence-based predictors for homodimer and heterodimer PPI interfaces to predict epitope residues that have the potential to bind an antibody. RESULTS: We collected and curated a high quality epitope dataset from the SAbDab database. Our generic PPI heterodimer predictor obtained an AUC-ROC of 0.666 when evaluated on the epitope test set. We then trained a random forest model specifically on the epitope dataset, reaching AUC 0.694. Further training on the combined heterodimer and epitope datasets, improves our final predictor to AUC 0.703 on the epitope test set. This is better than the best state-of-the-art sequence-based epitope predictor BepiPred-2.0. On one solved antibody-antigen structure of the COVID19 virus spike receptor binding domain, our predictor reaches AUC 0.778. We added the SeRenDIP-CE Conformational Epitope predictors to our webserver, which is simple to use and only requires a single antigen sequence as input, which will help make the method immediately applicable in a wide range of biomedical and biomolecular research. AVAILABILITY AND IMPLEMENTATION: Webserver, source code and datasets at www.ibi.vu.nl/programs/serendipwww/. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

Causal relationship between type 1 diabetes and hypothyroidism: A Mendelian randomization study.

OBJECTIVES: Although an association between type 1 diabetes (T1D) and hypothyroidism has been found in multiple observational studies, whether T1D plays a causal role in the development of hypothyroidism remains uncertain. Therefore, this Mendelian randomization (MR) study aimed to investigate the causal association between T1D and hypothyroidism. METHODS: Independent single-nucleotide polymorphisms associated with T1D with genome-wide significance were selected as instrumental variables from a large genome-wide association study (GWAS) of T1D. Hypothyroidism GWAS summary statistics were obtained from the Thyroidomics Consortium. The inverse-variance weighted (IVW) method was used as the primary analysis for estimating the effect of the exposure on the outcome. We also used MR-Egger, the weighted median method, MR-Robust, and other methods to confirm the results. RESULTS: T1D had a positive causal association with hypothyroidism [IVW, odds ratio (OR) = 1.083, 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.046-1.122; p < .001]. MR-Egger regression indicated that directional pleiotropy did not bias the result (intercept = 0.006; p = .295). The causal association was verified in an independent validation set (IVW, OR = 1.099, 95% CI, 1.018-1.186; p = .017). The results were robust according to various MR methods, and the results of the reverse MR analysis did not support reverse causation (p > .05). CONCLUSIONS: The MR analysis results indicated a causal association between T1D and hypothyroidism. Therefore, it is recommended that patients with T1D undergo thyroid function tests regularly to minimize the risk of undiagnosed hypothyroidism among young patients with T1D.

Quantifying substantial carcinogenesis of genetic and environmental factors from measurement error in the number of stem cell divisions.

BACKGROUND: The relative contributions of genetic and environmental factors versus unavoidable stochastic risk factors to the variation in cancer risk among tissues have become a widely-discussed topic. Some claim that the stochastic effects of DNA replication are mainly responsible, others believe that cancer risk is heavily affected by environmental and hereditary factors. Some of these studies made evidence from the correlation analysis between the lifetime number of stem cell divisions within each tissue and tissue-specific lifetime cancer risk. However, they did not consider the measurement error in the estimated number of stem cell divisions, which is caused by the exposure to different levels of genetic and environmental factors. This will obscure the authentic contribution of environmental or inherited factors. METHODS: In this study, we proposed two distinct modeling strategies, which integrate the measurement error model with the prevailing model of carcinogenesis to quantitatively evaluate the contribution of hereditary and environmental factors to cancer development. Then, we applied the proposed strategies to cancer data from 423 registries in 68 different countries (global-wide), 125 registries across China (national-wide of China), and 139 counties in Shandong province (Shandong provincial, China), respectively. RESULTS: The results suggest that the contribution of genetic and environmental factors is at least 92% to the variation in cancer risk among 17 tissues. Moreover, mutations occurring in progenitor cells and differentiated cells are less likely to be accumulated enough for cancer to occur, and the carcinogenesis is more likely to originate from stem cells. Except for medulloblastoma, the contribution of genetic and environmental factors to the risk of other 16 organ-specific cancers are all more than 60%. CONCLUSIONS: This work provides additional evidence that genetic and environmental factors play leading roles in cancer development. Therefore, the identification of modifiable environmental and hereditary risk factors for each cancer is highly recommended, and primary prevention in early life-course should be the major focus of cancer prevention.