The effect of incentivization on the conjunction fallacy in judgments: a meta-analysis.

The conjunction fallacy is a classical judgment bias that was argued to be a robust cognitive illusion insensitive to the positive effect of incentivization. We conducted a meta-analysis of the literature (n = 3276) and found that although most studies did not report a significant effect of incentivization, the results across studies show a significant positive effect for incentivization, d = 0.19, with an odds ratio of 1.40 for answering correctly when incentivized. There was no moderating effect of payoff size despite the differences in incentive value between studies. Additionally, the effect was relatively smaller when examining absolute differences in the probability of correct judgment instead of odds ratios, suggesting that it may be partly driven by studies with low baseline performance. These findings join those of other judgment-bias studies to suggest a small but nevertheless robust debiasing effect of incentivization.

Unique Internet Search Strategies of Individuals With Self-Stated Autism: Quantitative Analysis of Search Engine Users' Investigative Behaviors.

BACKGROUND: Although autism is often characterized in literature by the presence of repetitive behavior, in structured decision tasks, individuals with autism spectrum disorder (ASD) have been found to examine more options in a given time period than controls. OBJECTIVE: We aimed to examine whether this investigative tendency emerges in information searches conducted via the internet. METHODS: In total, 1746 search engine users stated that they had ASD in 2019. This group's naturally occurring responses following 1491 unique general queries and 78 image queries were compared to those of all other users of the search engine. The main dependent measure was scrolled distance, which denoted the extent to which additional results were scanned beyond the initial results presented on-screen. Additionally, we examined the number of clicks on search results as an indicator of the degree of search outcome exploitation and assessed whether there was a trade-off between increased search range and the time invested in viewing initial search results. RESULTS: After issuing general queries, individuals with self-stated ASD scanned more results than controls. The scrolled distance in the results page of general queries was 45% larger for the group of individuals with ASD (P<.001; d=0.45). The group of individuals with ASD also made the first scroll faster than the controls (P<.001; d=0.51). The differences in scrolled distance were larger for popular queries. No group differences in scrolled distance emerged for image queries, suggesting that visual load impeded the investigative behavior of individuals with ASD. No differences emerged in the number of clicks on search results. CONCLUSIONS: Individuals who self-stated that they had ASD scrutinized more general search results and fewer image search results than the controls. Thus, our results at least partially support the notion that individuals with ASD exhibit investigative behaviors and suggest that textual searches are an important context for expressing such tendencies.

Acceptable losses: the debatable origins of loss aversion.

It is often claimed that negative events carry a larger weight than positive events. Loss aversion is the manifestation of this argument in monetary outcomes. In this review, we examine early studies of the utility function of gains and losses, and in particular the original evidence for loss aversion reported by Kahneman and Tversky (Econometrica  47:263-291, 1979). We suggest that loss aversion proponents have over-interpreted these findings. Specifically, the early studies of utility functions have shown that while very large losses are overweighted, smaller losses are often not. In addition, the findings of some of these studies have been systematically misrepresented to reflect loss aversion, though they did not find it. These findings shed light both on the inability of modern studies to reproduce loss aversion as well as a second literature arguing strongly for it.

Effect of dehydroepiandrosterone add-on therapy on mood, decision making and subsequent relapse of polydrug users.

A major problem in the treatment of addiction is predicting and preventing relapse following a rehabilitation program. Recently, in preclinical rodent studies dehydroepiandrosterone (DHEA) was found to markedly improve the resistance to drug reuse. In a double-blind, placebo-controlled study, we examined the effect of DHEA on relapse rates in adult polydrug users taking part in a detoxification program enriched with intensive psychosocial interventions and aftercare. During treatment, participants (79 percent males, mean age 28) consumed DHEA (100 mg/day) or placebo daily for at least 30 days. Of the 121 initial volunteers, 64 participated for at least 1 month. While in treatment, DHEA reduced negative affect on the Positive and Negative Affect Scale (F = 4.25, P = 0.04). Furthermore, in a 16-month follow-up, we found that reuse rates in the DHEA condition were about a third compared with placebo (12 versus 38 percent; χ(2) = 5.03, P = 0.02). DHEA treatment also resulted in an increase in DHEA sulfate (DHEA-S) 1 month following treatment, and the level of DHEA-S predicted relapse in the follow-up assessment.

Loss attention in a dual-task setting.

The positive effect of losses on performance has been explained as stemming from the increased weighting of losses relative to gains. We examine an alternative possibility whereby this effect is mediated by attentional processes. Using the dual-task paradigm, we expected that positive effects of losses on performance would emerge under attentional scarcity and diffuse to a concurrently presented task. In Study 1, decision performance was compared for a task that involved either gains or losses and was performed either alone or as a secondary task. The results showed a significant 40% improvement in performance in the loss condition, but only under conditions of resource scarcity, when the task was a secondary one. In Study 2, the same task was presented as a primary task. Again, losses were associated with improved performance in the secondary task. Given that this secondary task did not include losses, these findings demonstrate an attentional spillover effect.

Methylphenidate enhances cognitive performance in adults with poor baseline capacities regardless of attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder diagnosis.

We compare the view that the effect of methylphenidate (MPH) is selective to individuals with attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) with an alternative approach suggesting that its effect is more prominent for individuals with weak baseline capacities in relevant cognitive tasks. To evaluate theses 2 approaches, we administered sustained attention, working memory, and decision-making tasks to 20 ADHD adults and 19 control subjects, using a within-subject placebo-controlled design. The results demonstrated no main effects of MPH in the decision-making tasks. In the sustained attention and working-memory tasks, MPH enhanced performance of both ADHD and non-ADHD adults to a similar extent compared with placebo. Hence, the effect of MPH was not selective to ADHD adults. In addition, those benefitting most from MPH in all 3 task domains tended to be individuals with poor task performance. However, in most tasks, individuals whose performance was impaired by MPH were not necessarily better (or worse) performers. The findings suggest that the administration of MPH to adults with ADHD should consider not only clinical diagnosis but also their functional (performance-based) profile.

Differential impact of serotonin transporter activity on temperament and behavior in persons with a family history of alcoholism in the Oklahoma Family Health Patterns Project.

BACKGROUND: Central serotonergic (5-HT) function is implicated in pathways to alcohol dependence, including dysphoria manifested by symptoms of anxiety and depression. However, little is known about genetic variation in central 5-HT function and its potential impact on temperament and behavior in persons with a family history of alcoholism (FH+). METHODS: We tested 314 healthy young adults (23.5 years of age, 57% female; 193 FH- and 121 FH+) enrolled in the Oklahoma Family Health Patterns project, a study of alcoholism risk in relation to temperament and behavioral dyscontrol. Dysphoria was assessed using the Eysenck neuroticism and Beck depression scales, and Cloninger's Tridimensional Personality Questionnaire. Risk taking was assessed with the Iowa Gambling Task (IGT) and Balloon Analogue Response Task (BART). All subjects were genotyped for a functional polymorphism (5-HTTLPR) in the promoter region of the serotonin transporter gene (SLC6A4). RESULTS: FH+ subjects with the gain-of-function 5-HTTLPR genotype scored higher in neuroticism, harm avoidance, and symptoms of depression (p-values ≤ 0.03). No effect of 5-HTTLPR genotype was seen in FH-. FH+ carriers of the gain-of-function 5-HTTLPR genotype played to minimize their frequency of losses in the IGT, whereas FH- carriers played a balanced strategy (p < 0.003). No 5-HTTLPR effects were seen in the BART. Results were unaffected by sex, education, drug use, and antisocial characteristics. CONCLUSIONS: The functional 5-HTTLPR polymorphism predicted significant variation in negative moods and poorer affect regulation in FH+ persons, with possible consequences for behavior, as seen in a simulated gambling task. This pattern may contribute to a drinking pattern that is compensatory for such affective tendencies.

Loss-aversion or loss-attention: the impact of losses on cognitive performance.

Losses were found to improve cognitive performance, and this has been commonly explained by increased weighting of losses compared to gains (i.e., loss aversion). We examine whether effects of losses on performance could be modulated by two alternative processes: an attentional effect leading to increased sensitivity to task incentives; and a contrast-related effect. Empirical data from five studies show that losses improve performance even when the enhanced performance runs counter to the predictions of loss aversion. In Study 1-3 we show that in various settings, when an advantageous option produces large gains and small losses, participants select this alternative at a higher rate than when it does not produce losses. Consistent with the joint influence of attention and contrast-related processes, this effect is smaller when a disadvantageous alternative produces the losses. In Studies 4 and 5 we find a positive effect on performance even with no contrast effects (when a similar loss is added to all alternatives). These findings indicate that both attention and contrast-based processes are implicated in the effect of losses on performance, and that a positive effect of losses on performance is not tantamount to loss aversion.

Choice behavior in autistic adults: What drives the extreme switching phenomenon?

BACKGROUND: Previous studies reported that autistic adolescents and adults tend to exhibit extensive choice switching in repeated experiential tasks. However, a recent meta-analysis showed that this switching effect was non-significant across studies. Furthermore, the relevant psychological mechanisms remain unclear. We examined the robustness of the extreme choice-switching phenomenon, and whether it is driven by a learning impairment, feedback-related aspects (e.g., avoiding losses), or alternatively a different information sampling strategy. METHODS: We recruited an online sample of 114 US participants (57 autistic adults and 57 non-autistic). All participants performed the Iowa Gambling task, a four-option repeated choice task. Standard task blocks were followed by a trial block with no feedback. RESULTS: The findings replicate the extreme choice switching phenomenon (Cohen's d = 0.48). Furthermore, the effect was found with no difference in average choice rates denoting no learning impairment, and was even observed in trial blocks with no feedback (d = 0.52). There was no evidence that the switching strategy of autistic individuals was more perseverative (i.e., that similar switching rates were used in subsequent trial blocks). When adding the current dataset to the meta-analysis, the choice switching phenomenon is significant across studies, d = 0.32. CONCLUSIONS: The findings suggest that the increased choice switching phenomenon in autism may be robust and that it represents a distinct information sampling strategy and not poor implicit learning (or a bias in the sensitivity to losses). Such extended sampling may underlie some of the phenomena previously attributed to poor learning.

Obesity and risk taking. A male phenomenon.

There is a growing tendency to regard overeating as an addiction, with obesity as its primary symptom. We propose that similar to other addictions, obesity is associated with excessive risk-taking in men, though not in women. To examine this suggestion we conducted two studies, one involving a sample of overweight and normal-weight students, and the other involving obese adults drawn from a dataset of health care clients, and a control sample of normal-weight adults. In both of these studies, we found that overweight and obese men took more risk in a laboratory task than normal-weight men, while overweight and obese women did not differ from normal-weight women in this respect. At the same time, obese women (but not overweight women) displayed higher impulsivity levels than normal-weight women. These findings shed light on the cognitive characteristics of obesity in men, and accent the importance of taking gender into account when developing research paradigms and treatment methods for obesity.

The effect of methylphenidate and mixed amphetamine salts on cognitive reflection: a field study.

RATIONALE: Methylphenidate (MPH) and mixed D,L-amphetamine salts (MASs; Adderall) were previously found to have unreliable effects on judgment and decision processes. OBJECTIVE: We predicted that MPH and MASs have a specific effect of reducing heuristic responses, which should lead to increased performance on the cognitive reflection test (CRT). The CRT is considered to be a testbed for heuristic versus deliberative response modes. METHODS: We recruited a sample of 15,361 individuals using the Prolific Academic crowdsourcing platform. From this initial pool, our final sample consisted of 294 participants (125 MPH users and 169 MASs users) who conformed to the study criteria and completed the experimental tasks. Tasks were performed on days where participants were either medicated or not, allowing to assess the effect of medication status. RESULTS: There was a strong positive effect of taking MPH on CRT scores (Cohen's d = 0.40) which was not qualified by frequency of MPH usage, ADHD symptoms, and demographic factors. There was also a somewhat weaker effect for MASs (Cohen's d = 0.07). No effects of MPH and MASs were recorded for risk-taking and numeracy. CONCLUSIONS: The results indicate that MPH enhances decision-making in tasks where heuristic responses typically bias it.

The Endowment Effect and Beliefs About the Market.

The endowment effect occurs when people assign a higher value to an item they own than to the same item when they do not own it, and this effect is often taken to reflect an ownership-induced change in the intrinsic value people assign to the object. However recent evidence shows that valuations made by buyers and sellers are influenced by market prices provided for the individual products, suggesting a role for beliefs about the markets. Here we elicit individuals' beliefs about whole distributions of market prices, enabling us to quantify whether or not a given transaction constitutes a "good deal" and to demonstrate how an endowment effect may reflect such considerations. In a meta-analysis and three laboratory experiments, we show for the first time that ownership has no effect on beliefs about either: (a) the quality of the item or (b) the appropriate market price for the item. Instead, we show that sellers demand a price for the item that matches their beliefs about the item's relative quality and the distribution of market prices in the market. Buyers, in contrast, offer less than what they believe the appropriate market price is. Thus, we argue that the endowment effect may largely reflect "adaptively rational" behavior on the part of both buyers and sellers (given their beliefs about relevant markets) rather than any ownership-induced bias or change in intrinsic preferences.

Adapted to explore: reinforcement learning in Autistic Spectrum Conditions.

Recent studies have recorded a tendency of individuals with Autism Spectrum Conditions (ASC) to continually change their choices in repeated choice tasks. In the current study we examine if this finding implies that ASC individuals have a cognitive style that facilitates exploration and discovery. Six decision tasks were administered to adolescents with ASC and matched controls. Significant differences in shifting between choice options appeared in the Iowa Gambling task (Bechara, Damasio, Damasio, & Anderson, 1994). A formal cognitive modeling analysis demonstrated that for about half of the ASC participants the adaptation process did not conform to the standard reinforcement learning model. These individuals were only coarsely affected by choice-outcomes, and were more influenced by the exploratory value of choices, being attracted to previously un-explored alternatives. An examination of the five simpler decision tasks where the advantageous option was easier to determine showed no evidence of this pattern, suggesting that the shifting choice pattern is not an uncontrollable tendency independent of task outcomes. These findings suggest that ASC individuals have a unique adaptive learning style, which may be beneficial is some learning environment but maladaptive in others, particularly in social contexts.

Autism is not associated with poor or enhanced performance on the Iowa Gambling Task: A Meta-Analysis.

Individuals with Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD) report difficulties in making routine decisions. Yet there is a controversy about whether their decision performance is impaired or enhanced compared to typically developing individuals. We focused on studies of the Iowa Gambling Task (IGT) where contrary arguments have been made in this regard. In a meta-analysis, we examined differences between high functioning individuals with ASD and controls in decision performance (choice of long-term advantageous options) and choice switching on the IGT. The analysis encompassed 14 studies involving 433 participants with ASD and 500 controls. The results showed virtually no difference in IGT performance between groups (d = 0.04), except for a slight disadvantage in the first block of trials for the ASD group (d = -0.16). We also found a non-significant trend towards increased choice switching in the ASD group (d = -0.37) that may be examined in future research. In sum, decision performance on the IGT is similar in individuals with ASD and controls, though their strategy may differ.

Choice rates are independent from perceived patterns (when patterns are not obvious): A reply to Plonsky and Teodorescu.

In Ashby, Konstantinidis, and Yechiam (2017) we argued that the variance in people's choices in decisions from experience stems from uncertainty about preferences. This was confirmed by high correlations between the variance in experiential choices and subsequent one-shot policy decisions: both showing considerable diversification. In the present paper we address a comment regarding our paper by Plonsky and Teodorescu (2020). These authors suggested that variance in experiential choices is driven by responses to perceived patterns in prior outcomes (rather than individuals' preferences), and that these responses can also drive subsequent policy decisions. This was supported by an apparent "wavy recency" effect in our data indicatory of responses to patterns, and by an experiment showing that outcome patterns affected subsequent policy decisions. We demonstrate that our study results do not in fact show a significant wavy recency. We do find positive recency but it is very poorly correlated with the overall choice rates. Hence, we contend that the variance in choice rates mostly reflects one's preferences when there are no obvious patterns. Moreover, we argue that because Plonsky and Teodorescu's experimental manipulation was confounded with the frequency of relatively positive/negative outcomes, their results do not conclusively show an effect of response to patterns on subsequent policies.

Further investigations of how rare disaster information affects risk taking: A registered replication report.

Across two experiments, Newell, Rakow, Yechiam, and Sambur (Nature Climate Change, 6(2), 158-161, 2016) demonstrated that providing rare disaster information increased people's tolerance for risk-taking. These results motivated a series of as yet-unpublished follow-up experiments involving new manipulations. However, the failure to replicate the original finding in these follow-ups has led our confidence in the original effect to wane. The aim of this registered report was to reconsider the evidence, published and unpublished, for the rare disaster information effect in light of new data. We conducted a large scale replication (N= 242) in which we failed to find evidence for the effect reported in Newell et al. thus further reducing our confidence. This registered report format provides a transparent framework by which to address the discrepancy between the published and previously-unpublished findings.

Are we attracted by losses? Boundary conditions for the approach and avoidance effects of losses.

The majority of the literature on the psychology of gains and losses suggests that losses lead to an avoidance response. Several studies, however, have shown that losses can also lead to an approach response, whereby an option is selected more often when it produces losses. In five studies we examine the boundary conditions for these contradictory approach and avoidance effects. The results show that an approach response emerges only when losses are produced by a highly advantageous choice alternative and when participants have ample unbiased direct or vicarious experience with this alternative. Additionally, the avoidance response to losses is also not ubiquitous and emerges when alternatives producing losses are experienced as disadvantageous. Thus, the findings suggest that both the approach and avoidance effects of losses exist and can be accounted for by increased investment of cognitive resources with losses (i.e., loss attention). Additionally, the findings clarify the loss attention account in indicating that losses increase exploitative behavior based on experienced outcomes, a process which can be locally optimal. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2019 APA, all rights reserved).

The acute effect of Hypericum perforatum on short-term memory in healthy adults.

RATIONALE: Over-the-counter drugs containing Hypericum perforatum (H. perforatum) have been argued to improve memory and sustained attention. So far, these claims have not been supported in human studies. However, previous studies used rather high dosages, and little is known about the acute effect of small dosages. OBJECTIVE: We evaluated whether an acute treatment with Remotiv 500 and Remotiv 250 (500 or 250 mg of H. perforatum quantified to either 1 or 0.5 mg of hypericin) improved memory and sustained attention, as well as mood and state anxiety in healthy adults. METHOD: A single dosage, randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial was conducted with 82 student participants (33 women). Each participant received placebo in one session and one of two dosages in the other session. Order of the sessions and dosage conditions were randomized between subjects. Participants completed a battery of tasks assessing short-term memory capacity and sustained attention. RESULTS: A significant positive effect of Remotiv 250 on digit span (mean Cohen's d = 0.58; p = .01) was observed. By contrast, Remotiv 500 had a negative effect on digit span (mean d = - 0.48, p = 0.04). A similar effect emerged when factoring across tests of short-term memory. Both dosages improved mood (d = 0.60, p = .03). CONCLUSIONS: The results indicate that acute treatment with small (250 mg) dosages of H. perforatum has a positive effect on the capacity of short-term verbal memory, and stress the importance of maintaining small dosages in nootropic applications. TRIAL REGISTRATION: www.clinicaltrials.gov NCT02862236.

Decision making in bipolar disorder: a cognitive modeling approach.

A formal modeling approach was used to characterize decision-making processes in bipolar disorder. Decision making was examined in 28 bipolar patients (14 acute and 14 remitted) and 25 controls using the Iowa Gambling Task (Bechara et al., 1994), a decision-making task used for assessing cognitive impulsivity. To disentangle motivational and cognitive aspects of decision-making processes, we applied a formal cognitive model to the performance on the Iowa Gambling Task. The model has three parameters: The relative impact of rewards and punishments on evaluations, the impact of recent and past payoffs, and the degree of choice consistency. The results indicated that acute bipolar patients were characterized by low choice consistency, or a tendency to make erratic choices. Low choice consistency improved the prediction of acute bipolar disorder beyond that provided by cognitive functioning and self-report measures of personality and temperament.

Neurocognitive deficits related to poor decision making in people behind bars.

Using a novel quantitative model of repeated choice behavior, we investigated the cognitive processes of criminal offenders incarcerated for various crimes. Eighty-one criminals, including violent offenders, drug and sex offenders, drivers operating a vehicle while impaired, and 18 matched controls were tested. The results were also contrasted with those obtained from neurological patients with focal brain lesions in the orbitofrontal cortex and from drug abusers. Participants performed the computerized version of the Iowa gambling task (Bechara, Damasio, Damasio, & Anderson, 1994), and the results were decomposed into specific component processes, using the expectancy valence model (Busemeyer & Stout, 2002). The findings indicated that whereas all the criminal groups tended to select disadvantageously, the cognitive profiles exhibited by different groups were considerably different. Certain subpopulations--most significantly, drug and sex offenders--overweighted potential gains as compared with losses, similar to chronic cocaine abusers. In contrast, assault/murder criminals tended to make less consistent choices and to focus on immediate outcomes and, in these respects, weremore similar to patients with orbitofrontal damage. The present cognitive model provides a novel way for building a bridge between cognitive neuroscience and complex human behaviors.