Unraveling the molecular relevance of brain phenotypes: A comparative analysis of null models and test statistics.

Correlating transcriptional profiles with imaging-derived phenotypes has the potential to reveal possible molecular architectures associated with cognitive functions, brain development and disorders. Competitive null models built by resampling genes and self-contained null models built by spinning brain regions, along with varying test statistics, have been used to determine the significance of transcriptional associations. However, there has been no systematic evaluation of their performance in imaging transcriptomics analyses. Here, we evaluated the performance of eight different test statistics (mean, mean absolute value, mean squared value, max mean, median, Kolmogorov-Smirnov (KS), Weighted KS and the number of significant correlations) in both competitive null models and self-contained null models. Simulated brain maps (n = 1,000) and gene sets (n = 500) were used to calculate the probability of significance (Psig) for each statistical test. Our results suggested that competitive null models may result in false positive results driven by co-expression within gene sets. Furthermore, we demonstrated that the self-contained null models may fail to account for distribution characteristics (e.g., bimodality) of correlations between all available genes and brain phenotypes, leading to false positives. These two confounding factors interacted differently with test statistics, resulting in varying outcomes. Specifically, the sign-sensitive test statistics (i.e., mean, median, KS, Weighted KS) were influenced by co-expression bias in the competitive null models, while median and sign-insensitive test statistics were sensitive to the bimodality bias in the self-contained null models. Additionally, KS-based statistics produced conservative results in the self-contained null models, which increased the risk of false negatives. Comprehensive supplementary analyses with various configurations, including realistic scenarios, supported the results. These findings suggest utilizing sign-insensitive test statistics such as mean absolute value, max mean in the competitive null models and the mean as the test statistic for the self-contained null models. Additionally, adopting the confounder-matched (e.g., coexpression-matched) null models as an alternative to standard null models can be a viable strategy. Overall, the present study offers insights into the selection of statistical tests for imaging transcriptomics studies, highlighting areas for further investigation and refinement in the evaluation of novel and commonly used tests.

Cortical profiles of numerous psychiatric disorders and normal development share a common pattern.

The neurobiological bases of the association between development and psychopathology remain poorly understood. Here, we identify a shared spatial pattern of cortical thickness (CT) in normative development and several psychiatric and neurological disorders. Principal component analysis (PCA) was applied to CT of 68 regions in the Desikan-Killiany atlas derived from three large-scale datasets comprising a total of 41,075 neurotypical participants. PCA produced a spatially broad first principal component (PC1) that was reproducible across datasets. Then PC1 derived from healthy adult participants was compared to the pattern of CT differences associated with psychiatric and neurological disorders comprising a total of 14,886 cases and 20,962 controls from seven ENIGMA disease-related working groups, normative maturation and aging comprising a total of 17,697 scans from the ABCD Study® and the IMAGEN developmental study, and 17,075 participants from the ENIGMA Lifespan working group, as well as gene expression maps from the Allen Human Brain Atlas. Results revealed substantial spatial correspondences between PC1 and widespread lower CT observed in numerous psychiatric disorders. Moreover, the PC1 pattern was also correlated with the spatial pattern of normative maturation and aging. The transcriptional analysis identified a set of genes including KCNA2, KCNS1 and KCNS2 with expression patterns closely related to the spatial pattern of PC1. The gene category enrichment analysis indicated that the transcriptional correlations of PC1 were enriched to multiple gene ontology categories and were specifically over-represented starting at late childhood, coinciding with the onset of significant cortical maturation and emergence of psychopathology during the prepubertal-to-pubertal transition. Collectively, the present study reports a reproducible latent pattern of CT that captures interregional profiles of cortical changes in both normative brain maturation and a spectrum of psychiatric disorders. The pubertal timing of the expression of PC1-related genes implicates disrupted neurodevelopment in the pathogenesis of the spectrum of psychiatric diseases emerging during adolescence.

Machine learning approaches linking brain function to behavior in the ABCD STOP task.

The stop-signal task (SST) is one of the most common fMRI tasks of response inhibition, and its performance measure, the stop-signal reaction-time (SSRT), is broadly used as a measure of cognitive control processes. The neurobiology underlying individual or clinical differences in response inhibition remain unclear, consistent with the general pattern of quite modest brain-behavior associations that have been recently reported in well-powered large-sample studies. Here, we investigated the potential of multivariate, machine learning (ML) methods to improve the estimation of individual differences in SSRT with multimodal structural and functional region of interest-level neuroimaging data from 9- to 11-year-olds children in the ABCD Study. Six ML algorithms were assessed across modalities and fMRI tasks. We verified that SST activation performed best in predicting SSRT among multiple modalities including morphological MRI (cortical surface area/thickness), diffusion tensor imaging, and fMRI task activations, and then showed that SST activation explained 12% of the variance in SSRT using cross-validation and out-of-sample lockbox data sets (n = 7298). Brain regions that were more active during the task and that showed more interindividual variation in activation were better at capturing individual differences in performance on the task, but this was only true for activations when successfully inhibiting. Cortical regions outperformed subcortical areas in explaining individual differences but the two hemispheres performed equally well. These results demonstrate that the detection of reproducible links between brain function and performance can be improved with multivariate approaches and give insight into a number of brain systems contributing to individual differences in this fundamental cognitive control process.

Performance scaling for structural MRI surface parcellations: a machine learning analysis in the ABCD Study.

The use of predefined parcellations on surface-based representations of the brain as a method for data reduction is common across neuroimaging studies. In particular, prediction-based studies typically employ parcellation-driven summaries of brain measures as input to predictive algorithms, but the choice of parcellation and its influence on performance is often ignored. Here we employed preprocessed structural magnetic resonance imaging (sMRI) data from the Adolescent Brain Cognitive Development Study® to examine the relationship between 220 parcellations and out-of-sample predictive performance across 45 phenotypic measures in a large sample of 9- to 10-year-old children (N = 9,432). Choice of machine learning (ML) pipeline and use of alternative multiple parcellation-based strategies were also assessed. Relative parcellation performance was dependent on the spatial resolution of the parcellation, with larger number of parcels (up to ~4,000) outperforming coarser parcellations, according to a power-law scaling of between 1/4 and 1/3. Performance was further influenced by the type of parcellation, ML pipeline, and general strategy, with existing literature-based parcellations, a support vector-based pipeline, and ensembling across multiple parcellations, respectively, as the highest performing. These findings highlight the choice of parcellation as an important influence on downstream predictive performance, showing in some cases that switching to a higher resolution parcellation can yield a relatively large boost to performance.

Investigation of Psychiatric and Neuropsychological Correlates of Default Mode Network and Dorsal Attention Network Anticorrelation in Children.

The default mode network (DMN) and dorsal attention network (DAN) demonstrate an intrinsic "anticorrelation" in healthy adults, which is thought to represent the functional segregation between internally and externally directed thought. Reduced segregation of these networks has been proposed as a mechanism for cognitive deficits that occurs in many psychiatric disorders, but this association has rarely been tested in pre-adolescent children. The current analysis used data from the Adolescent Brain Cognitive Development study to examine the relationship between the strength of DMN/DAN anticorrelation and psychiatric symptoms in the largest sample to date of 9- to 10-year-old children (N = 6543). The relationship of DMN/DAN anticorrelation to a battery of neuropsychological tests was also assessed. DMN/DAN anticorrelation was robustly linked to attention problems, as well as age, sex, and socioeconomic factors. Other psychiatric correlates identified in prior reports were not robustly linked to DMN/DAN anticorrelation after controlling for demographic covariates. Among neuropsychological measures, the clearest correlates of DMN/DAN anticorrelation were the Card Sort task of executive function and cognitive flexibility and the NIH Toolbox Total Cognitive Score, although these did not survive correction for socioeconomic factors. These findings indicate a complicated relationship between DMN/DAN anticorrelation and demographics, neuropsychological function, and psychiatric problems.

Association of Video Gaming With Cognitive Performance Among Children.

Importance: Although most research has linked video gaming to subsequent increases in aggressive behavior in children after accounting for prior aggression, findings have been divided with respect to video gaming's association with cognitive skills. Objective: To examine the association between video gaming and cognition in children using data from the Adolescent Brain Cognitive Development (ABCD) study. Design, Setting, and Participants: In this case-control study, cognitive performance and blood oxygen level-dependent (BOLD) signal were compared in video gamers (VGs) and non-video gamers (NVGs) during response inhibition and working memory using task-based functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) in a large data set of 9- and 10-year-old children from the ABCD study, with good control of demographic, behavioral, and psychiatric confounding effects. A sample from the baseline assessment of the ABCD 2.0.1 release in 2019 was largely recruited across 21 sites in the US through public, private, and charter elementary schools using a population neuroscience approach to recruitment, aiming to mirror demographic variation in the US population. Children with valid neuroimaging and behavioral data were included. Some exclusions included common MRI contraindications, history of major neurologic disorders, and history of traumatic brain injury. Exposures: Participants completed a self-reported screen time survey including an item asking children to report the time specifically spent on video gaming. All fMRI tasks were performed by all participants. Main Outcomes and Measures: Video gaming time, cognitive performance, and BOLD signal assessed with n-back and stop signal tasks on fMRI. Collected data were analyzed between October 2019 and October 2020. Results: A total of 2217 children (mean [SD] age, 9.91 [0.62] years; 1399 [63.1%] female) participated in this study. The final sample used in the stop signal task analyses consisted of 1128 NVGs (0 gaming hours per week) and 679 VGs who played at least 21 hours per week. The final sample used in the n-back analyses consisted of 1278 NVGs who had never played video games (0 hours per week of gaming) and 800 VGs who played at least 21 hours per week. The VGs performed better on both fMRI tasks compared with the NVGs. Nonparametric analyses of fMRI data demonstrated a greater BOLD signal in VGs in the precuneus during inhibitory control. During working memory, a smaller BOLD signal was observed in VGs in parts of the occipital cortex and calcarine sulcus and a larger BOLD signal in the cingulate, middle, and frontal gyri and the precuneus. Conclusions and Relevance: In this study, compared with NVGs, VGs were found to exhibit better cognitive performance involving response inhibition and working memory as well as altered BOLD signal in key regions of the cortex responsible for visual, attention, and memory processing. The findings are consistent with videogaming improving cognitive abilities that involve response inhibition and working memory and altering their underlying cortical pathways.

One-year predictions of delayed reward discounting in the adolescent brain cognitive development study.

Delayed reward discounting (DRD) refers to the extent to which an individual devalues a reward based on a temporal delay and is known to be elevated in individuals with substance use disorders and many mental illnesses. DRD has been linked previously with both features of brain structure and function, as well as various behavioral, psychological, and life-history factors. However, there has been little work on the neurobiological and behavioral antecedents of DRD in childhood. This is an important question, as understanding the antecedents of DRD can provide signs of mechanisms in the development of psychopathology. The present study used baseline data from the Adolescent Brain Cognitive Development Study (N = 4,042) to build machine learning models to predict DRD at the first follow-up visit, 1 year later. In separate machine learning models, we tested elastic net regression, random forest regression, light gradient boosting regression, and support vector regression. In five-fold cross-validation on the training set, models using an array of questionnaire/task variables were able to predict DRD, with these findings generalizing to a held-out (i.e., "lockbox") test set of 20% of the sample. Key predictive variables were neuropsychological test performance at baseline, socioeconomic status, screen media activity, psychopathology, parenting, and personality. However, models using magnetic resonance imaging (MRI)-derived brain variables did not reliably predict DRD in either the cross-validation or held-out test set. These results suggest a combination of questionnaire/task variables as antecedents of excessive DRD in late childhood, which may presage the development of problematic substance use in adolescence. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2022 APA, all rights reserved).

Bayesian causal network modeling suggests adolescent cannabis use accelerates prefrontal cortical thinning.

While there is substantial evidence that cannabis use is associated with differences in human brain development, most of this evidence is correlational in nature. Bayesian causal network (BCN) modeling attempts to identify probable causal relationships in correlational data using conditional probabilities to estimate directional associations between a set of interrelated variables. In this study, we employed BCN modeling in 637 adolescents from the IMAGEN study who were cannabis naïve at age 14 to provide evidence that the accelerated prefrontal cortical thinning found previously in adolescent cannabis users by Albaugh et al. [1] is a result of cannabis use causally affecting neurodevelopment. BCNs incorporated data on cannabis use, prefrontal cortical thickness, and other factors related to both brain development and cannabis use, including demographics, psychopathology, childhood adversity, and other substance use. All BCN algorithms strongly suggested a directional relationship from adolescent cannabis use to accelerated cortical thinning. While BCN modeling alone does not prove a causal relationship, these results are consistent with a body of animal and human research suggesting that adolescent cannabis use adversely affects brain development.

Multimethod investigation of the neurobiological basis of ADHD symptomatology in children aged 9-10: baseline data from the ABCD study.

Attention deficit/hyperactivity disorder is associated with numerous neurocognitive deficits, including poor working memory and difficulty inhibiting undesirable behaviors that cause academic and behavioral problems in children. Prior work has attempted to determine how these differences are instantiated in the structure and function of the brain, but much of that work has been done in small samples, focused on older adolescents or adults, and used statistical approaches that were not robust to model overfitting. The current study used cross-validated elastic net regression to predict a continuous measure of ADHD symptomatology using brain morphometry and activation during tasks of working memory, inhibitory control, and reward processing, with separate models for each MRI measure. The best model using activation during the working memory task to predict ADHD symptomatology had an out-of-sample R2 = 2% and was robust to residualizing the effects of age, sex, race, parental income and education, handedness, pubertal status, and internalizing symptoms from ADHD symptomatology. This model used reduced activation in task positive regions and reduced deactivation in task negative regions to predict ADHD symptomatology. The best model with morphometry alone predicted ADHD symptomatology with an R2 = 1% but this effect dissipated when including covariates. The inhibitory control and reward tasks did not yield generalizable models. In summary, these analyses show, with a large and well-characterized sample, that the brain correlates of ADHD symptomatology are modest in effect size and captured best by brain morphometry and activation during a working memory task.

Multimodal brain predictors of current weight and weight gain in children enrolled in the ABCD study ®.

Multimodal neuroimaging assessments were utilized to identify generalizable brain correlates of current body mass index (BMI) and predictors of pathological weight gain (i.e., beyond normative development) one year later. Multimodal data from children enrolled in the Adolescent Brain Cognitive Development Study® at 9-to-10-years-old, consisted of structural magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), diffusion tensor imaging (DTI), resting state (rs), and three task-based functional (f) MRI scans assessing reward processing, inhibitory control, and working memory. Cross-validated elastic-net regression revealed widespread structural associations with BMI (e.g., cortical thickness, surface area, subcortical volume, and DTI), which explained 35% of the variance in the training set and generalized well to the test set (R2 = 0.27). Widespread rsfMRI inter- and intra-network correlations were related to BMI (R2train = 0.21; R2test = 0.14), as were regional activations on the working memory task (R2train = 0.20; (R2test = 0.16). However, reward and inhibitory control tasks were unrelated to BMI. Further, pathological weight gain was predicted by structural features (Area Under the Curve (AUC)train = 0.83; AUCtest = 0.83, p < 0.001), but not by fMRI nor rsfMRI. These results establish generalizable brain correlates of current weight and future pathological weight gain. These results also suggest that sMRI may have particular value for identifying children at risk for pathological weight gain.

Recalibrating expectations about effect size: A multi-method survey of effect sizes in the ABCD study.

Effect sizes are commonly interpreted using heuristics established by Cohen (e.g., small: r = .1, medium r = .3, large r = .5), despite mounting evidence that these guidelines are mis-calibrated to the effects typically found in psychological research. This study's aims were to 1) describe the distribution of effect sizes across multiple instruments, 2) consider factors qualifying the effect size distribution, and 3) identify examples as benchmarks for various effect sizes. For aim one, effect size distributions were illustrated from a large, diverse sample of 9/10-year-old children. This was done by conducting Pearson's correlations among 161 variables representing constructs from all questionnaires and tasks from the Adolescent Brain and Cognitive Development Study® baseline data. To achieve aim two, factors qualifying this distribution were tested by comparing the distributions of effect size among various modifications of the aim one analyses. These modified analytic strategies included comparisons of effect size distributions for different types of variables, for analyses using statistical thresholds, and for analyses using several covariate strategies. In aim one analyses, the median in-sample effect size was .03, and values at the first and third quartiles were .01 and .07. In aim two analyses, effects were smaller for associations across instruments, content domains, and reporters, as well as when covarying for sociodemographic factors. Effect sizes were larger when thresholding for statistical significance. In analyses intended to mimic conditions used in "real-world" analysis of ABCD data, the median in-sample effect size was .05, and values at the first and third quartiles were .03 and .09. To achieve aim three, examples for varying effect sizes are reported from the ABCD dataset as benchmarks for future work in the dataset. In summary, this report finds that empirically determined effect sizes from a notably large dataset are smaller than would be expected based on existing heuristics.

Variation in readmission rates among hospitals following admission for traumatic injury.

INTRODUCTION: Readmission following hospital discharge is both common and costly. The Hospital Readmission Reduction Program (HRRP) financially penalizes hospitals for readmission following admission for some conditions, but this approach may not be appropriate for all conditions. We wished to determine if hospitals differed in their adjusted readmission rates following an index hospital admission for traumatic injury. PATIENTS AND METHODS: We extracted from the AHRQ National Readmission Dataset (NRD) all non-elderly adult patients hospitalized following traumatic injury in 2014. We estimated hierarchal logistic regression models to predicted readmission within 30 days. Models included either patient level predictors, hospital level predictors, or both. We quantified the extent of hospital variability in readmissions using the median odds ratio. Additionally, we computed hospital specific risk-adjusted rates of readmission and number of excess readmissions. RESULTS: Of the 177,322 patients admitted for traumatic injury 11,940 (6.7%) were readmitted within 30 days. Unadjusted hospital readmission rates for the 637 hospitals in our study varied from 0% to 20%. After controlling for sources of variability the range for hospital readmission rates was between 5.5% and 8.5%. Only 2% of hospitals had a random intercept coefficient significantly different from zero, suggesting that their readmission rates differed from the mean level of all hospitals. We also estimated that in 2014 only 11% of hospitals had more than 2 excess readmissions. Our multilevel model discriminated patients who were readmitted from those not readmitted at an acceptable level (C = 0.74). CONCLUSIONS: We found little evidence that hospitals differ in their readmission rates following an index admission for traumatic injury. There is little justification for penalizing hospitals based on readmissions after traumatic injury.