Cardiogenic shock in general intensive care unit: a Nationwide prospective analysis of epidemiology and outcome.

BACKGROUND: Cardiogenic shock (CS) is a life-threatening disease burdened by a mortality up to 50%. The epidemiology has changed with non-ischemic aetiologies being predominant although data was mainly derived from patients admitted to dedicated acute cardiac care. We report the epidemiology and outcome of patients with CS admitted to general intensive care unit (ICU). METHODS: Prospective multicentric epidemiological study including 314 general ICU adhering to the GiViTI Nationwide registry from 2011 to 2018, excluding cardiac arrest. The primary endpoint of the study was mortality. The association between clinical factors and mortality was evaluated using a logistic regression model. The Odds Ratios of the covariates quantify their association with mortality during hospitalization. RESULTS: 11052 patients admitted to general ICU (incidence 2.17%; median age 72 (IQR [66-81]), 38.7% were women) with CS were included. Fourthy-seven percent of patients had more than 3 organ insufficiency at the time of admission. The most common CS aetiologies were: left heart failure LHF- 5247-47.5%), acute myocardial infarction (AMI - 3612-32.6%); right heart failure (RHF- 515-4.6%) and biventricular failure (532- 4.8%). 85.5% were mechanically ventilated during the ICU hospitalization. The overall ICU mortality was 44.8%, increasing to 53.4% during the hospitalization in the index hospital and to 54.3% at the latest hospital. RHF-CS patients exhibited the highest mortality risk (OR: 1.19 95% CI [0.94 - 1.50]; p < 0.001), followed by biventricular-CS OR 1.04 95% CI [0.82-1.32]. Respiratory failure (OR 1.13 [95%CI 1.08-1.19]), coagulation disorder (1.17 (95% CI 1.1-1.24), renal dysfunction (OR 1.55 [95% CI 1.50-1.61] and neurological alteration (OR 1.45 [95% CI 1.39-1.50]) were associated with worsen outcome along with severe hypotension (systolic blood pressure < 70 mmHg- OR 2.35 95% CI [2.06-2.67]), increasing age (OR 2.21 95% CI [2.01-2.42] and longer ICU stay prior to admission (2-fold increase for each 4.7 days). CONCLUSIONS: In the general ICU the aetiology of CS, excluding cardiac arrest, remains characterized mostly by LHF with RHF-CS burdened by higher mortality. Multiorgan failure at admission and longer hospital stay before ICU admission predispose to worsen outcome.

Organizational Learning in Healthcare Contexts after COVID-19: A Study of 10 Intensive Care Units in Central and Northern Italy through Framework Analysis.

The rapid spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus has forced healthcare organizations to change their organization, introducing new ways of working, relating, communicating, and managing to cope with the growing number of hospitalized patients. Starting from the analysis of the narratives of healthcare workers who served in the intensive care units of 10 hospitals in Central and Northern Italy, this contribution intends to highlight elements present during the pandemic period within the investigated structures, which are considered factors that can influence the birth of organizational learning. Specifically, the data collected through interviews and focus groups were analyzed using the framework analysis method of Ritchie and Spencer. The conducted study made it possible to identify and highlight factors related to aspects of communication, relationships, context, and organization that positively influenced the management of the health emergency, favoring the improvement of the structure. It is believed that the identification of these factors by healthcare organizations can represent a valuable opportunity to rethink themselves, thus becoming a source of learning.

Benchmark of Intraoperative Activity in Cardiac Surgery: A Comparison between Pre- and Post-Operative Prognostic Models.

OBJECTIVES: Despite its large diffusion and improvements in safety, the risks of complications after cardiac surgery remain high. Published predictive perioperative scores (EUROSCORE, STS, ACEF) assess risk on preoperative data only, not accounting for the intraopertive period. We propose a double-fold model, including data collected before surgery and data collected at the end of surgery, to evaluate patient risk evolution over time and assess the direct contribution of surgery. METHODS: A total of 15,882 cardiac surgery patients from a Margherita-Prosafe cohort study were included in the analysis. Probability of death was estimated using two logistic regression models (preoperative data only vs. post-operative data, also including information at discharge from the operatory theatre), testing calibration and discrimination of each model. RESULTS: Pre-operative and post-operative models were built and demonstrate good discrimination and calibration with AUC = 0.81 and 0.87, respectively. Relative difference in pre- and post-operative mortality in separate centers ranged from -0.36 (95% CI: -0.44--0.28) to 0.58 (95% CI: 0.46-0.71). The usefulness of this two-fold preoperative model to benchmark medical care in single hospital is exemplified in four cases. CONCLUSIONS: Predicted post-operative mortality differs from predicted pre-operative mortality, and the distance between the two models represent the impact of surgery on patient outcomes. A double-fold model can assess the impact of the intra-operative team and the evolution of patient risk over time, and benchmark different hospitals on patients subgroups to promote an improvement in medical care in each center.

Differences in early, intermediate, and long-term mortality among elderly patients admitted to the ICU: results of a retrospective observational study.

BACKGROUND: Few studies have investigated both short- and long-term prognostic factors, and the differences between chronic and acute conditions in the very old critically ill patient. Our study aims to shed light in this field and to provide useful prognostic factors that may support clinical decisions in the management of the elderly. METHODS: Six ICUs collected data concerning 80-year-old (or more) patients admitted in 2015 and 2016 and followed-up until May 2018. Three prognostic models were developed: an in-hospital mortality model, a model for patients discharged from the hospital and entering follow-up, and an intermediate model for those alive after three days from ICU admission. RESULTS: Our centers admitted 1189 patients, 1071 (90.1%) had survived after three days from admission, 889 (74.8%) were discharged from the hospital, 701 (59.0%) survived six months after hospital discharge, 539 (45.3%) survived at the end of follow-up. Among survivors the median follow-up time was 810 days. Acute organ failures were the main causes of death in the hospital mortality multivariable model. These factors are modifiable and potentially a target for intervention to improve outcome. The model focused on mortality six months after hospital in patients that survived a three-day time-limited trial, showed a clear shift toward chronic diseases, unmodifiable factors crucial for prognostic assessment. This trend was even more evident at the end of follow-up. CONCLUSIONS: Among very old ICU patients, prognostic factors shift from acute to chronic conditions in passing from in-hospital to posthospital outcomes.

Case-mix affects calibration of cardiosurgical severity scores.

BACKGROUND: Prognostic models are often used to assess the quality of healthcare. Several scores were developed to predict mortality after cardiac surgery, but none has reached optimal performance in subsequent validations. We validate the most used scores (EUROSCORE I and II, STS, and ACEF) on a cohort of cardiac-surgery patients, assessing their robustness against case-mix changes. METHODS: The scores were validated on 14,559 patients admitted to 16 Italian cardiosurgical ICUs participating to Margherita-Prosafe project in 2014 and 2015. Calibration was assessed through Hosmer-Lemeshow Test, standardized mortality ratio, and GiViTI calibration test and belt. Discrimination was measured by the area under the ROC curve. RESULTS: The study included 10,317 patients who were eligible to the calculation of the STS Score (4156 isolated valve, 4681 isolated CABG and 1480 single valve and CABG) which calibrated well in these subgroups. The ACEF Score and EUROSCORE I and II were available for 14,139, and 14,071 patients, respectively. EUROSCORE I significantly overestimated mortality; EUROSCORE II calibrated well overall, but underestimated mortality of patients undergoing complex surgery and non-elective ones. The ACEF Score calibrated poorly in elective and non-elective patients. Discrimination was acceptable for all models (AUC>0.70), but not for the ACEF Score. CONCLUSIONS: Cardiac surgery scores calibrate poorly when the case-mix of validation and development samples differs. To grant reliability for benchmarking, they should be validated in the clinical settings on which they are applied and updated periodically. Advanced statistical tools are essential for the correct interpretation and application of severity scores.