Stage at diagnosis of colorectal cancer in the Middle East and Northern Africa: A population-based cancer registry study.

Colorectal cancer (CRC) is the 2nd most common cancer and 3rd most common cause of death in the Middle East and Northern Africa (MENA) region. We aimed to explore CRC stage at diagnosis data from population-based cancer registries in MENA countries. In 2021, we launched a Global Initiative for Cancer Registry Development (GICR) survey on staging practices and breast and CRC stage distributions in MENA. According to the survey results, population-based data on TNM stage for CRC were available from six registries in five countries (Kuwait, Morocco, Oman, Türkiye, UAE). The proportion of cases with unknown TNM stage ranged from 14% in Oman to 47% in Casablanca, Morocco. The distribution of CRC cases with known stage showed TNM stage IV proportions of 26-45%, while the proportions of stage I cancers were lowest in Morocco (≤7%), and highest (19%) in Izmir, Türkiye. Summary extent of disease data was available from six additional registries and four additional countries (Algeria, Bahrain, Iraq, Qatar). In summary, the proportions of CRC diagnosed with distant metastases in Oman, Bahrain and UAE were lower than other MENA countries in our study, but higher than in European and the US populations. Harmonising the use of staging systems and focusing stage data collection efforts on major cancers, such as CRC, is needed to monitor and evaluate progress in CRC control in the region.

Diagnostic accuracy of HPV16 early antigen serology for HPV-driven oropharyngeal cancer is independent of age and sex.

A growing proportion of head and neck cancer (HNC), especially oropharyngeal cancer (OPC), is caused by human papillomavirus (HPV). There are several markers for HPV-driven HNC, one being HPV early antigen serology. We aimed to investigate the diagnostic accuracy of HPV serology and its performance across patient characteristics. Data from the VOYAGER consortium was used, which comprises five studies on HNC from North America and Europe. Diagnostic accuracy, that is, sensitivity, specificity, Cohen's kappa and correctly classified proportions of HPV16 E6 serology, was assessed for OPC and other HNC using p16INK4a immunohistochemistry (p16), HPV in situ hybridization (ISH) and HPV PCR as reference methods. Stratified analyses were performed for variables including age, sex, smoking and alcohol use, to test the robustness of diagnostic accuracy. A risk-factor analysis based on serology was conducted, comparing HPV-driven to non-HPV-driven OPC. Overall, HPV serology had a sensitivity of 86.8% (95% CI 85.1-88.3) and specificity of 91.2% (95% CI 88.6-93.4) for HPV-driven OPC using p16 as a reference method. In stratified analyses, diagnostic accuracy remained consistent across sex and different age groups. Sensitivity was lower for heavy smokers (77.7%), OPC without lymph node involvement (74.4%) and the ARCAGE study (66.7%), while specificity decreased for cases with <10 pack-years (72.1%). The risk-factor model included study, year of diagnosis, age, sex, BMI, alcohol use, pack-years, TNM-T and TNM-N stage. HPV serology is a robust biomarker for HPV-driven OPC, and its diagnostic accuracy is independent of age and sex. Future research is suggested on the influence of smoking on HPV antibody levels.

Global view of haematolymphoid tumor classifications and their application in low- and middle-income countries.

The accurate diagnosis of haematolymphoid malignancies is crucial for effective cancer care, but major obstacles to diagnosis exist in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). This article explores the global applicability of current haematolymphoid classification systems, which are predominantly derived from data generated in high-income countries (HICs). Although disproportionately burdened with poor cancer outcomes, LMICs are generally faced with limited diagnostic resources, suboptimal access to therapeutics, and inadequate healthcare infrastructure. The article highlights the challenges faced by LMICs, including inconsistent access to high-quality pathology services, limited availability of advanced diagnostic techniques, and a lack of population-based cancer registry data. It also discusses the progress made in narrowing the gap between LMICs and HICs, such as the introduction of resource-adapted classifications, improved guidance on essential diagnostic tools, and strengthening of in-country professional pathology networks. Innovative diagnostic approaches, including gene expression profiling and machine learning, represent potential solutions for improving the diagnostic accuracy in LMICs, but addressable gaps remain. Recommendations are suggested for sustainable investments in diagnostic infrastructure, capacity-building, and population-based cancer registries to enhance the global applicability of haematolymphoid classification systems and improve outcomes for patients in LMICs.

Global burden of bladder cancer mortality in 2020 and 2040 according to GLOBOCAN estimates.

INTRODUCTION: In 2020, bladder cancer (BC) was the seventh most prevalent cancer in the world, with 5-year prevalence of more than 1.7 million cases. Due to the main risk factors-smoking and chemical exposures-associated with BC, it is considered a largely preventable and avoidable cancer. An overview of BC mortality can allow an insight not only into the prevalence of global risk factors, but also into the varying efficiency of healthcare systems worldwide. For this purpose, this study analyzes the national mortality estimates for 2020 and projected future trends up to 2040. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Age-standardized mortality rates per 100,000 person-years of BC for 185 countries by sex were obtained from the GLOBOCAN 2020 database, operated by the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC). Mortality rates were stratified according to sex and Human Development Index (HDI). BC deaths were projected up to 2040 on the basis of demographic changes, alongside different scenarios of annually increasing, stable or decreasing mortality rates from the baseline year of 2020. RESULTS: In 2020, nearly three times more men died from BC than women, with more than 210,000 deaths in both sexes combined, worldwide. Regardless of gender, more than half of the total BC deaths were from countries with a very high HDI. According to our projections, while the number of deaths for men can only increase up to 54% (from 159 to around 163-245 thousand), for women it is projected to increase two- to three-fold (from 50 to around 119-176 thousand) by 2040. The burden of BC mortality in countries with a very high HDI versus high HDI appears to converge by 2040 for both sexes. CONCLUSION: Opposite mortality trends by gender highlight the urgent need for immediate interventions to expand anti-tobacco strategies, especially for women. The implementation of more strict occupational health and safety regulations could also prevent exposures associated with BC. Improving the ability to detect BC earlier and access to treatment can have a significant positive impact on reducing mortality rates, minimizing economic costs, and enhancing the quality of life for patients.

Cancer survival in Africa, central and south America, and Asia (SURVCAN-3): a population-based benchmarking study in 32 countries.

BACKGROUND: Population-based cancer survival is a key measurement of cancer control performance linked to diagnosis and treatment, but benchmarking studies that include lower-income settings and that link results to health systems and human development are scarce. SURVCAN-3 is an international collaboration of population-based cancer registries that aims to benchmark timely and comparable cancer survival estimates in Africa, central and south America, and Asia. METHODS: In SURVCAN-3, population-based cancer registries from Africa, central and south America, and Asia were invited to contribute data. Quality control and data checks were carried out in collaboration with population-based cancer registries and, where applicable, active follow-up was performed at the registry. Patient-level data (sex, age at diagnosis, date of diagnosis, morphology and topography, stage, vital status, and date of death or last contact) were included, comprising patients diagnosed between Jan 1, 2008, and Dec 31, 2012, and followed up for at least 2 years (until Dec 31, 2014). Age-standardised net survival (survival where cancer was the only possible cause of death), with 95% CIs, at 1 year, 3 years, and 5 years after diagnosis were calculated using Pohar-Perme estimators for 15 major cancers. 1-year, 3-year, and 5-year net survival estimates were stratified by countries within continents (Africa, central and south America, and Asia), and countries according to the four-tier Human Development Index (HDI; low, medium, high, and very high). FINDINGS: 1 400 435 cancer cases from 68 population-based cancer registries in 32 countries were included. Net survival varied substantially between countries and world regions, with estimates steadily rising with increasing levels of the HDI. Across the included cancer types, countries within the lowest HDI category (eg, CÔte d'Ivoire) had a maximum 3-year net survival of 54·6% (95% CI 33·3-71·6; prostate cancer), whereas those within the highest HDI categories (eg, Israel) had a maximum survival of 96·8% (96·1-97·3; prostate cancer). Three distinct groups with varying outcomes by country and HDI dependant on cancer type were identified: cancers with low median 3-year net survival (<30%) and small differences by HDI category (eg, lung and stomach), cancers with intermediate median 3-year net survival (30-79%) and moderate difference by HDI (eg, cervix and colorectum), and cancers with high median 3-year net survival (≥80%) and large difference by HDI (eg, breast and prostate). INTERPRETATION: Disparities in cancer survival across countries were linked to a country's developmental position, and the availability and efficiency of health services. These data can inform policy makers on priorities in cancer control to reduce apparent inequality in cancer outcome. FUNDING: Tata Memorial Hospital, the Martin-Luther-University Halle-Wittenberg, and the International Agency for Research on Cancer.

A risk prediction model for head and neck cancers incorporating lifestyle factors, HPV serology and genetic markers.

Head and neck cancer is often diagnosed late and prognosis for most head and neck cancer patients remains poor. To aid early detection, we developed a risk prediction model based on demographic and lifestyle risk factors, human papillomavirus (HPV) serological markers and genetic markers. A total of 10 126 head and neck cancer cases and 5254 controls from five North American and European studies were included. HPV serostatus was determined by antibodies for HPV16 early oncoproteins (E6, E7) and regulatory early proteins (E1, E2, E4). The data were split into a training set (70%) for model development and a hold-out testing set (30%) for model performance evaluation, including discriminative ability and calibration. The risk models including demographic, lifestyle risk factors and polygenic risk score showed a reasonable predictive accuracy for head and neck cancer overall. A risk model that also included HPV serology showed substantially improved predictive accuracy for oropharyngeal cancer (AUC = 0.94, 95% CI = 0.92-0.95 in men and AUC = 0.92, 95% CI = 0.88-0.95 in women). The 5-year absolute risk estimates showed distinct trajectories by risk factor profiles. Based on the UK Biobank cohort, the risks of developing oropharyngeal cancer among 60 years old and HPV16 seropositive in the next 5 years ranged from 5.8% to 14.9% with an average of 8.1% for men, 1.3% to 4.4% with an average of 2.2% for women. Absolute risk was generally higher among individuals with heavy smoking, heavy drinking, HPV seropositivity and those with higher polygenic risk score. These risk models may be helpful for identifying people at high risk of developing head and neck cancer.

Completeness of regional cancer registry data in Northwest Russia 2008-2017.

BACKGROUND: A national framework for population-based cancer registration was established in Russia in the late 1990s. Data comparability and validity analyses found substantial differences across ten population-based cancer registries (PBCRs)in Northwest Russia, and only four out of ten met international standards. This study aimed to assess the completeness of the PBCR data of those registries. METHODS: Qualitative and quantitative methods recommended for completeness and timeliness assessment were applied to the data from ten Russian regional PBCRs in Northwest Russia, covering a population of 13 million. We used historic data methods (using several European PBCRs reference rates), mortality-to-incidence ratios (M:I) comparison, and death certificate methods to calculate the proportion of unregistered cases (Lincoln-Petersen estimator and Ajiki formula). RESULTS: Incidence rate trends of different cancer types were stable over time (except one region - Leningrad oblast). A slight drop in incidence rates in older age groups for several sites in the Northwestern regions was observed compared to the reference from European countries. Comparing M:I ratios against five-year survival revealed systematic differences in Leningrad oblast and Vologda oblast. Assessment of completeness revealed low or unrealistic estimates in Leningrad oblast and completeness below 90% in St. Petersburg. In other regions, the completeness was above 90%. The national annual report between 2008-2017 did not include about 10% of the cases collected later in the registry database of St. Petersburg. This difference was below 3% for Arkhangelsk oblast, Murmansk oblast, Novgorod oblast, Vologda oblast and the Republic of Karelia. CONCLUSIONS: Eight out of ten regional PBCRs in Northwest Russia collected data with an acceptable degree of completeness. Mostly populated St. Petersburg and Leningrad oblast did not reach such completeness. PBCR data from several regions in Northwest Russia are suitable for epidemiological research and monitoring cancer control activities.

Global patterns of non-Hodgkin lymphoma in 2020.

We evaluated the global patterns of non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL) in 2020 using the estimates of NHL incidence and mortality in 185 countries that are part of the GLOBOCAN 2020 database, developed by the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC). As well as new cases and deaths of NHL, corresponding age-standardized (world) rates (ASR) of incidence and mortality per 100 000 person-years were derived by country and world region. In 2020, an estimated 544 000 new cases of NHL were diagnosed worldwide, and approximately 260 000 people died from the disease. Eastern Asia accounted for a quarter (24.9%) of all cases, followed by Northern America (15.1%) and South-Central Asia (9.7%). Incidence rates were higher in men than in women, with similar geographical patterns. While the incidence rates were highest in Australia and New Zealand, Northern America, Northern Europe and Western Europe (>10/100 000 for both sexes combined), the highest mortality rates (>3/100 000) were found in regions in Africa, Western Asia and Oceania. The large variations and the disproportionately higher mortality in low- and middle-income countries can be related to the underlying prevalence and distribution of risk factors, and to the level of access to diagnostic and treatment facilities.

Global patterns in testicular cancer incidence and mortality in 2020.

With 74 500 new cases worldwide in 2020, testicular cancer ranks as the 20th leading cancer type, but is the most common cancer in young men of European ancestry. While testicular cancer incidence has been rising in many populations, mortality trends, at least those in high-income settings, have been in decline since the 1970s following the introduction of platinum-based chemotherapy. To examine current incidence and mortality patterns, we extracted the new cases of, and deaths from cancers of the testis from the GLOBOCAN 2020 database. In 2020, testicular cancer was the most common cancer in men aged 15 to 44 in 62 countries worldwide. Incidence rates were highest in West-, North- and South-Europe and Oceania (age-standardised rate, ASR ≥7/100 000), followed by North America (5.6/100 000 and lowest (<2/100 000) in Asia and Africa. The mortality rates were highest in Central and South America (0.84 and 0.54 per 100 000, respectively), followed by Eastern and Southern Europe, and Western and Southern Africa. The lowest mortality rates were in Northern Europe, Northern Africa and Eastern Asia (0.16, 0.14, 0.9 per 100 000, respectively). At the country level, incidence rates varied over 100-fold, from 10/100 000 in Norway, Slovenia, Denmark and Germany to ≤0.10/100 000 in Gambia, Guinea, Liberia, Lesotho. Mortality rates were highest in Fiji, Argentina and Mexico. Our results indicate a higher mortality burden in countries undergoing economic transitions and reinforce the need for more equitable access to testicular cancer diagnosis and treatment globally.

Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on population-based cancer registry.

The COVID-19 pandemic has caused disruptions to national health systems and impacted health outcomes worldwide. However, the extent to which surveillance systems, such as population-based cancer registration, have been affected was not reported. Here we sought to evaluate the effect of the pandemic on registry operations across different areas and development levels worldwide. We investigated the impact of COVID-19 on three main areas of cancer registry operations: staffing, financing and data collection. An online survey was administered to 750 member registries of the International Association for Cancer Registries. Among 212 responding registries from 90 countries, 65.6% reported a disruption in operations, ranging between 45% in south-eastern Asia and 87% in the Latin America and Caribbean. Active data collection was disrupted more than case notifications or hybrid methods. In countries categorized with low Human Development Index (HDI), a greater number of registries reported a negative impact (81.3%) than in very high HDI countries (57.8%). This contrast was highest in term of impact on financing: 9/16 (56%) registries in low HDI countries reported a current or an expected decline in funding, compared to 7/108 (7%) in very high HDI countries. With many cancer registries worldwide reporting disruption to their operations during the early COVID-19 pandemic, urgent actions are needed to ensure their continuity. Governmental commitment to support future registry operations as an asset to disease control, alongside a move toward electronic reporting systems will help to ensure the sustainability of cancer surveillance worldwide.

Progress in reducing premature mortality from cancer and cardiovascular disease in the former Soviet Union, 2000-19.

BACKGROUND: A reduction in non-communicable diseases premature mortality by one-third by 2030 is one of the targets of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDG3.4). We examined the mortality profiles in the Newly Independent States of the former Soviet Union (NIS) and the European Union (EU) and assessed progress in reductions of premature mortality from cancer, as compared to cardiovascular disease (CVD). METHODS: We used WHO's Global Health Estimates and GLOBOCAN 2020 to examine current mortality profiles and computed the unconditional probabilities of dying at ages 30-70 from CVD and cancer for the years 2000-19 in both sexes, using a linear extrapolation of this trend to predict whether the target of a one-third reduction, as set in 2015, would be met in 2030. RESULTS: CVD was the main cause of premature death in the NIS (43%), followed by cancer (23%), inversely from the EU with 42% cancer and 24% CVD deaths. The NIS achieved major reductions in premature CVD mortality, although the probabilities of death in 2019 remained about five times higher in the NIS compared to the EU. For cancer, mortality reductions in most NIS were quite modest, other than large declines seen in Kazakhstan (44%) and Kyrgyzstan (30%), with both on course to meet the 2030 target. CONCLUSIONS: Limited progress in cancer control in the NIS calls for policy action both in terms of structural changes towards universal health coverage, and scaling up of national cancer control plans, including a shift from opportunistic to evidence-based early detection practices.

Comparison of breast cancer and cervical cancer stage distributions in ten newly independent states of the former Soviet Union: a population-based study.

BACKGROUND: Screening for breast cancer and cervical cancer in the newly independent states of the former Soviet Union is largely opportunistic, and countries in the region have among the highest cervical cancer incidence in the WHO European Region. We aimed to compare the stage-specific distributions and changes over time in breast cancer and cervical cancer incidence in the newly independent states of the former Soviet Union. METHODS: We collected breast cancer and cervical cancer incidence data from official statistics from Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Republic of Moldova, Russian Federation, Ukraine, and Uzbekistan for the years 2008-17 by tumour, node, metastasis (TNM) stage, and by age where population-based cancer registry data were available. We used log-linear regression to quantify the changes over time in age-standardised rates. FINDINGS: During the period 2013-17, more than 50% of breast cancer cases across the analysed countries, and more than 75% of breast cancer cases in Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Ukraine, were registered at stages I-II. The proportion of stage I breast cancer cases was highest in the screening age group (50-69 years) compared with other ages in Moldova and the Russian registries, but was highest in those aged 15-49 years in Georgia and Ukraine. Breast cancer stage-specific incidence rates increased over time, most prominently for stage I cancers. For cervical cancer, the proportions of cancers diagnosed at a late stage (stages III and IV) were high, particularly in Moldova and Armenia (>50%). The proportion of stage I cervical cancer cases decreased with age in all countries, whereas the proportions of late stage cancers increased with age. Stage-specific incidence rates of cervical cancer generally increased over the period 2008-17. INTERPRETATION: Our results suggest modest progress in early detection of breast cancer in the newly independent states of the former Soviet Union. The high proportions of early-stage disease in the absence of mammography screening (eg, in Belarus) provide a benchmark for what is achievable with rapid diagnosis. For cervical cancer, there is a need to tackle the high burden and unfavourable stage-specific changes over time in the region. A radical shift in national policies away from opportunistic screening toward organised, population-based, quality-assured human papillomavirus vaccination and screening programmes is urgently needed. FUNDING: Union for International Cancer Control, WHO Regional Office for Europe, and Ministry of Health of Ukraine.

Cancer statistics for the year 2020: An overview.

Our study briefly reviews the data sources and methods used in compiling the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) GLOBOCAN cancer statistics for the year 2020 and summarises the main results. National estimates were calculated based on the best available data on cancer incidence from population-based cancer registries (PBCR) and mortality from the World Health Organization mortality database. Cancer incidence and mortality rates for 2020 by sex and age groups were estimated for 38 cancer sites and 185 countries or territories worldwide. There were an estimated 19.3 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 19.0-19.6 million) new cases of cancer (18.1 million excluding non-melanoma skin cancer) and almost 10.0 million (95% UI: 9.7-10.2 million) deaths from cancer (9.9 million excluding non-melanoma skin cancer) worldwide in 2020. The most commonly diagnosed cancers worldwide were female breast cancer (2.26 million cases), lung (2.21) and prostate cancers (1.41); the most common causes of cancer death were lung (1.79 million deaths), liver (830000) and stomach cancers (769000).

Use of cancer data for cancer control in the Eastern Mediterranean Region: Results of a survey among population-based cancer registries.

Data from population-based cancer registries (PBCR) are critical for planning, monitoring and evaluation of cancer control programs, but are frequently underutilized by key stakeholders. As part of the ongoing partnership of the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) and the WHO Eastern Mediterranean Regional Office (EMRO) in cancer surveillance, we designed a cancer registry survey to assess the level of involvement of PBCR in national cancer control planning across the region. A questionnaire on registry characteristics, their contribution to cancer control and perceived barriers, was sent to 14 countries with operational PBCR. We obtained replies from Bahrain, Egypt, Iraq, Iran, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Tunisia and the United Arab Emirates. We found a high participation of PBCR in cancer control planning (all registries involved, 46% routinely) and the evaluation of screening (92% registries involved, 46% routinely), but a much lower level of participation in palliative care and rehabilitation activities. Specified barriers included poor governance, a lack of awareness by policy makers, insufficient resources and a limited availability of data electronically, including mortality data. Appropriate planning to ensure the sustainability of PBCR (including the employment of permanent staff), increasing training, building research capacity and ensuring an efficient provision of high-quality data to policymakers, were among the proposed solutions. The results of our study reinforce the need for further tailoring of activities in support of cancer registration and enhanced networking among stakeholders, toward improving quality and use of cancer registry data for cancer control in the EMR.

Comparability and validity of cancer registry data in the northwest of Russia.

BACKGROUND: Despite the elaborate history of statistical reporting in the USSR, Russia established modern population-based cancer registries (PBCR) only in the 1990s. The quality of PBCRs data has not been thoroughly analyzed. This study aims at assessing the comparability and validity of cancer statistics in regions of the Northwestern Federal District (NWFD) of Russia. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Data from ten Russian regional PBCRs covering ∼13 million (∼5 million in St. Petersburg) were processed in line with IARC/IACR and ENCR recommendations. We extracted and analyzed all registered cases but focused on cases diagnosed between 2008 and 2017. For comparability and validity assessment, we applied established qualitative and quantitative methods. RESULTS: Data collection in NWFD is in line with international standards. Distributions of diagnosis dates revealed higher variation in several regions, but overall, distributions are relatively uniform. The proportion of multiple primaries between 2008 and 2017 ranged from 6.7% in Vologda Oblast to 12.4% in Saint-Petersburg. We observed substantial regional heterogeneity for most indicators of validity. In 2013-2017, proportions of morphologically verified cases ranged between 61.7 and 89%. Death certificates only (DCO) cases proportion was in the range of 1-14% for all regions, except for Saint-Petersburg (up to 23%). The proportion of cases with a primary site unknown was between 1 and 3%. Certain cancer types (e.g., pancreas, liver, hematological malignancies, and CNS tumors) and cancers in older age groups showed lower validity. CONCLUSION: While the overall level of comparability and validity of PBCRs data of four out of ten regions of NWFD of Russia meets the international standards, differences between the regions are substantial. The local instructions for cancer registration need to be updated and implemented. The data validity assessment also reflects pitfalls in the quality of diagnosis of certain cancer types and patient groups.

Testicular cancer incidence predictions in Europe 2010-2035: A rising burden despite population ageing.

Testicular cancer is the most common cancer among young men of European ancestry, with about one-third of all cases occurring in Europe. With the historically increasing trends in some high-incidence populations reported to have stabilised in recent years, we aimed to assess recent trends and predict the future testicular cancer incidence burden across Europe. We extracted testicular cancer (ICD-10 C62) incidence data from Cancer Incidence in Five Continents Volumes VII-XI and complemented this with data published by registries from 28 European countries. We predicted cancer incidence rates and the number of incident cases in Europe in the year 2035 using the NORDPRED age-period-cohort model. Testicular cancer incidence rates will increase in 21 out of 28 countries over the period 2010-2035, with trends attenuating in the high-incidence populations of Denmark, Norway, Switzerland and Austria. Although population ageing would be expected to reduce the number of cases, this demographic effect is outweighed by increasing risk, leading to an overall increase in the number of cases by 2035 in Europe, and by region (21, 13 and 32% in Northern, Western and Eastern Europe, respectively). Declines are however predicted in Italy and Spain, amounting to 12% less cases in 2035 in Southern Europe overall. In conclusion, the burden of testicular cancer incidence in Europe will continue to increase, particularly in historically lower-risk countries. The largest increase in the number of testicular cancer patients is predicted in Eastern Europe, where survival is lower, reinforcing the need to ensure the provision of effective treatment across Europe.

International trends in hepatocellular carcinoma incidence, 1978-2012.

Primary liver cancer, the major histology of which is hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), is the second leading cause of cancer death worldwide. We comprehensively examined recent international trends of primary liver cancer and HCC incidence using population-based cancer registry data. Incidence for all primary liver cancer and for HCC by calendar time and birth cohort was examined for selected countries between 1978 and 2012. For each successive 5-year period, age-standardized incidence rates were calculated from Volumes V to XI of the Cancer Incidence in Five Continents (CI5) series using the online electronic databases, CI5plus. Large variations persist in liver cancer incidence globally. Rates of liver cancer remain highest in Asian countries, specifically in the East and South-East, and Italy. However, rates in these high-risk countries have been decreasing in recent years. Rates in India and in most countries of Europe, the Americas and Oceania are rising. As the population seroprevalence of hepatitis B virus (HBV) continues to decline, we anticipate rates of HCC in many high-risk countries will continue to decrease. Treatment of hepatitis C virus (HCV) is likely to bring down rates further in some high-rate, as well as low-rate, countries with access to effective therapies. However, such gains in the control of liver cancer are at risk of being reversed by the growing obesity and diabetes epidemics, suggesting diabetes treatment and primary prevention of obesity will be key in reducing liver cancer in the longer-term.

Proportion of cancers attributable to major lifestyle and environmental risk factors in the Eastern Mediterranean region.

Cancer is a major contributing cause of morbidity and mortality in the Eastern Mediterranean region. The aim of the current study was to estimate the cancer burden attributable to major lifestyle and environmental risk factors. We used age-, sex- and site-specific incidence estimates for 2012 from IARC's GLOBOCAN, and assessed the following risk factors: smoking, alcohol, high body mass index, insufficient physical activity, diet, suboptimal breastfeeding, infections and air pollution. The prevalence of exposure to these risk factors came from different sources including peer-reviewed international literature, the World Health Organization, noncommunicable disease Risk Factor Collaboration, and the Food and Agriculture Organization. Sex-specific population-attributable fraction was estimated in the 22 countries of the Eastern Mediterranean region based on the prevalence of the selected risk factors and the relative risks obtained from meta-analyses. We estimated that approximately 33% (or 165,000 cases) of all new cancer cases in adults aged 30 years and older in 2012 were attributable to all selected risk factors combined. Infections and smoking accounted for more than half of the total attributable cases among men, while insufficient physical activity and exposure to infections accounted for more than two-thirds of the total attributable cases among women. A reduction in exposure to major lifestyle and environmental risk factors could prevent a substantial number of cancer cases in the Eastern Mediterranean. Population-based programs preventing infections and smoking (particularly among men) and promoting physical activity (particularly among women) in the population are needed to effectively decrease the regional cancer burden.

Global trends in intrahepatic and extrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma incidence from 1993 to 2012.

BACKGROUND: Intrahepatic cholangiocarcinomas (ICCs) and extrahepatic cholangiocarcinomas (ECCs) are highly lethal bile duct tumors. Their incidence can be difficult to estimate because of changes in cancer coding over time. No studies to date have examined their global incidence and trends with high-quality topography- and histology-specific cancer registry data. Therefore, this study examined ICC and ECC incidence with the Cancer Incidence in Five Continents Plus database. METHODS: Regional and national cancer registry data were used to estimate age-standardized incidence rates (ASRs) per 100,000 person-years, 95% confidence intervals, and average annual percent changes (AAPCs) for ICC in 38 countries and for ECC in 33 countries from 1993 to 2012. ICC and ECC trends were tabulated and plotted by country. Rates versus birth cohort by age were plotted, and an age-period-cohort analysis was performed to assess age and cohort incidence rate ratios. RESULTS: The highest rates of ICC and ECC were in Asia, specifically South Korea (ASR for ICC, 2.80; ASR for ECC, 2.24), Thailand (ASR for ICC, 2.19; ASR for ECC, 0.71), and Japan (ASR for ICC, 0.95; ASR for ECC, 0.83). Between 1993 and 2012, incidence rates of both ICC and ECC increased in most countries. The largest ASR increases over the study period occurred in Latvia (AAPC, 20.1%) and China (AAPC, 11.1%) for ICC and in Thailand (AAPC, 8.8%) and Colombia (AAPC, 8.5%) for ECC. CONCLUSIONS: In the 20 years examined, ICC and ECC incidence increased in the majority of countries worldwide. ICC and ECC incidence may continue to increase because of metabolic and infectious etiologic factors. Efforts to further elucidate risk factors contributing to these increases in incidence are warranted.

Alcohol drinking and head and neck cancer risk: the joint effect of intensity and duration.

BACKGROUND: Alcohol is a well-established risk factor for head and neck cancer (HNC). This study aims to explore the effect of alcohol intensity and duration, as joint continuous exposures, on HNC risk. METHODS: Data from 26 case-control studies in the INHANCE Consortium were used, including never and current drinkers who drunk ≤10 drinks/day for ≤54 years (24234 controls, 4085 oral cavity, 3359 oropharyngeal, 983 hypopharyngeal and 3340 laryngeal cancers). The dose-response relationship between the risk and the joint exposure to drinking intensity and duration was investigated through bivariate regression spline models, adjusting for potential confounders, including tobacco smoking. RESULTS: For all subsites, cancer risk steeply increased with increasing drinks/day, with no appreciable threshold effect at lower intensities. For each intensity level, the risk of oral cavity, hypopharyngeal and laryngeal cancers did not vary according to years of drinking, suggesting no effect of duration. For oropharyngeal cancer, the risk increased with durations up to 28 years, flattening thereafter. The risk peaked at the higher levels of intensity and duration for all subsites (odds ratio = 7.95 for oral cavity, 12.86 for oropharynx, 24.96 for hypopharynx and 6.60 for larynx). CONCLUSIONS: Present results further encourage the reduction of alcohol intensity to mitigate HNC risk.