Instrumental evaluation of gait smoothness and history of falling in older persons: results from an exploratory case-control study.

Gait smoothness, perceived when a person walks continuously and uninterruptedly, is associated with an undisrupted gait pattern, good sensorimotor control, and a lower risk of falling. The spectral arc length (SPARC) is a quantitative metric proposed for the evaluation of movement smoothness from the signal obtained by wearable sensors. In this small exploratory case-control study, older persons with and without a history of injurious falls underwent a turn-test while wearing an accelerometer: gait smoothness was estimated by calculating SPARC during the straight and turning phases. Cases seemed to exhibit lower SPARC values during the turning phase, in comparison with control.

Frailty, multimorbidity patterns and mortality in institutionalized older adults in Italy.

BACKGROUND: Little is known on how frailty influences clinical outcomes in persons with specific multimorbidity patterns. AIMS: To investigate the interplay between multimorbidity and frailty in the association with mortality in older individuals living in nursing homes (NH). METHODS: We considered 4,131 NH residents aged 60 years and over, assessed through the interRAI LTCF instrument between 2014 and 2018. Follow-up was until 2019. Considering four multimorbidity patterns identified via principal component analysis, subjects were stratified in tertiles (T) with respect to their loading values. Frailty Index (FI) considered 23 variables and a cut-off of 0.24 distinguished between high and low frailty levels. For each pattern, all possible combinations of tertiles and FI were evaluated. Their association (Hazard Ratio [HR] and 95% confidence interval) with mortality was tested in Cox regression models. RESULTS: In the heart diseases and dementia and sensory impairments patterns, the hazard of death increases progressively with patterns expression and frailty severity (being HR T3 vs. T1 = 2.36 [2.01-2.78]; HR T3 vs. T1 = 2.12 [1.83-2.47], respectively). In heart, respiratory and psychiatric diseases and diabetes, musculoskeletal and vascular diseases patterns, frailty seems to have a stronger impact on mortality than patterns' expression. DISCUSSION: Frailty increases mortality risk in all the patterns and provides additional prognostic information in NH residents with different multimorbidity patterns. CONCLUSIONS: These findings support the need to routinely assess frailty. Older people affected by specific groups of chronic diseases need a specific care approach and have high risk of negative health outcomes.

COVID-19 as an effect modifier of the relationship between age and in-hospital survival in older patients admitted to an Italian Emergency Department.

BACKGROUND: The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic modified how persons got into contact with emergency services, particularly during the first wave. AIM: The aim is to describe the characteristics of older persons with and without COVID-19 visiting the Emergency Department of a tertiary hospital and to investigate the impact of age on in-hospital survival in the two groups. METHODS: Patients older than 70 years were followed-up till discharge or in-hospital death. Cox regression models stratified by COVID-19 diagnosis were used to investigate survival. RESULTS: Out of 896 patients, 36.7% had COVID-19. Those without COVID-19 were older and affected by a higher number of chronic conditions but exhibited lower mortality (10.5 vs 48.1%). After the adjustment, age was associated with mortality only among those with COVID-19. DISCUSSION: COVID-19 modified the relationship between older age and in-hospital survival: whether this finding is explained by other biological vulnerabilities or by a selection of treatments based on age should be further investigated.

The association between low skeletal muscle mass and delirium: results from the nationwide multi-centre Italian Delirium Day 2017.

INTRODUCTION: Delirium and sarcopenia are common, although underdiagnosed, geriatric syndromes. Several pathological mechanisms can link delirium and low skeletal muscle mass, but few studies have investigated their association. We aimed to investigate (1) the association between delirium and low skeletal muscle mass and (2) the possible role of calf circumference mass in finding cases with delirium. METHODS: The analyses were conducted employing the cross-sectional "Delirium Day" initiative, on patient 65 years and older admitted to acute hospital medical wards, emergency departments, rehabilitation wards, nursing homes and hospices in Italy in 2017. Delirium was diagnosed as a 4 + score at the 4-AT scale. Low skeletal muscle mass was operationally defined as calf circumference ≤ 34 cm in males and ≤ 33 cm in females. Logistic regression models were used to investigate the association between low skeletal muscle mass and delirium. The discriminative ability of calf circumference was evaluated using non-parametric ROC analyses. RESULTS: A sample of 1675 patients was analyzed. In total, 73.6% of participants had low skeletal muscle mass and 24.1% exhibited delirium. Low skeletal muscle mass and delirium showed an independent association (OR: 1.50; 95% CI 1.09-2.08). In the subsample of patients without a diagnosis of dementia, the inclusion of calf circumference in a model based on age and sex significantly improved its discriminative accuracy [area under the curve (AUC) 0.69 vs 0.57, p < 0.001]. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSION: Low muscle mass is independently associated with delirium. In patients without a previous diagnosis of dementia, calf circumference may help to better identify those who develop delirium.

Technologies for the Instrumental Evaluation of Physical Function in Persons Affected by Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease: A Systematic Review.

Several systems, sensors, and devices are now available for the instrumental evaluation of physical function in persons with Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD). We aimed to systematically review the literature about such technologies. The literature search was conducted in all major scientific databases, including articles published between January 2001 and April 2022. Studies reporting measures derived from the instrumental assessment of physical function in individuals with COPD were included and were divided into application and validation studies. The quality of validation studies was assessed with the Consensus-based Standards for the selection of health Measurement Instruments (COSMIN) risk of bias tool. From 8752 articles retrieved, 21 application and 4 validation studies were included in the systematic review. Most application studies employed accelerometers, gait analysis systems, instrumented mattresses, or force plates to evaluate walking. Surface electro-myography or near-infrared spectroscopy were employed in four studies. Validation studies were heterogeneous and presented a risk of bias ranging from inadequate to doubtful. A variety of data regarding physical function can be retrieved from technologies used in COPD studies. However, a general lack of standardization and limitations in study design and sample size hinder the implementation of the instrumental evaluation of function in clinical practice.

Comorbidity status of deceased COVID-19 in-patients in Italy.

BACKGROUND: Most COVID-19-related deaths have occurred in older persons with comorbidities. Specific patterns of comorbidities related to COVID-19 deaths have not been investigated. METHODS: A random sample of 6085 individuals in Italy who died in-hospital with confirmed COVID-19 between February and December 2020 were included. Observed to expected (O/E) ratios of disease pairs were computed and logistic regression models were used to determine the association between disease pairs with O/E values ≥ 1.5. RESULTS: Six pairs of diseases exhibited O/E values ≥ 1.5 and statistically significant higher odds of co-occurrence in the crude and adjusted analyses: (1) ischemic heart disease and atrial fibrillation, (2) atrial fibrillation and heart failure, (3) atrial fibrillation and stroke, (4) heart failure and COPD, (5) stroke and dementia, and (6) type 2 diabetes and obesity. CONCLUSION: In those deceased in-hospital due to COVID-19 in Italy, disease combinations defined by multiple cardio-respiratory, metabolic, and neuropsychiatric diseases occur more frequently than expected. This finding indicates a need to investigate the possible role of these clinical profiles in the chain of events that lead to death in individuals who have contracted SARS-CoV-2.

Multimorbidity burden and dementia risk in older adults: The role of inflammation and genetics.

INTRODUCTION: We investigate dementia risk in older adults with different disease patterns and explore the role of inflammation and apolipoprotein E (APOE) genotype. METHODS: A total of 2,478 dementia-free participants with two or more chronic diseases (ie, multimorbidity) part of the Swedish National study on Aging and Care in Kungsholmen (SNAC-K) were grouped according to their multimorbidity patterns and followed to detect clinical dementia. The potential modifier effect of C-reactive protein (CRP) and apolipoprotein E (APOE) genotype was tested through stratified analyses. RESULTS: People with neuropsychiatric, cardiovascular, and sensory impairment/cancer multimorbidity had increased hazards for dementia compared to the unspecific (Hazard ration (HR) 1.66, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.13-2.42; 1.61, 95% CI 1.17-2.29; 1.32, 95% CI 1.10-1.71, respectively). Despite the lack of statistically significant interaction, high CRP increased dementia risk within these patterns, and being APOE ε4 carriers heightened dementia risk for neuropsychiatric and cardiovascular multimorbidity. DISCUSSION: Individuals with neuropsychiatric, cardiovascular, and sensory impairment/cancer patterns are at increased risk for dementia and APOE ε4, and inflammation may further increase the risk. Identifying such high-risk groups might allow tailored interventions for dementia prevention.

The impact of delirium on outcomes for older adults hospitalised with COVID-19.

INTRODUCTION: Delirium is a frequent condition in hospitalized older patients and it usually has a negative prognostic value. A direct effect of SARS-COV-2 on the central nervous system (CNS) has been hypothesized. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the presence of delirium in older patients admitted for a suspected diagnosis of COVID-19 and its impact on in-hospital mortality. SETTING AND SUBJECTS: 91 patients, aged 70-years and older, admitted to an acute geriatric ward in Northern Italy from March 8th to April 17th, 2020. METHODS: COVID-19 cases were confirmed by reverse transcriptase-polymerase chain reaction assay for SARS-Cov-2 RNA from nasal and pharyngeal swabs. Delirium was diagnosed by two geriatricians according to the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders V (DMS V) criteria. The number of chronic diseases was calculated among a pre-defined list of 60. The pre-disease Clinical Frailty Scale (CFS) was assessed at hospital admission. RESULTS: Of the total sample, 39 patients died, 49 were discharged and 3 were transferred to ICU. Twenty-five patients (27.5%) had delirium. Seventy-two percent of patients with delirium died during hospitalization compared to 31.8% of those without delirium. In a multivariate logistic regression model adjusted for potential confounders, patients with delirium were four times more likely to die during hospital stay compared to those without delirium (OR = 3.98;95%CI = 1.05-17.28; p = 0.047). CONCLUSIONS: Delirium is common in older patients with COVID-19 and strongly associated with in-hospital mortality. Regardless of causation, either due to a direct effect of SARS-COV-2 on the CNS or to a multifactorial cause, delirium should be interpreted as an alarming prognostic indicator in older people.

Predictors of iron-deficiency anemia in primary care older adults: a real-world European multi-country longitudinal study.

BACKGROUND: Iron deficiency is a major cause of anemia in older people. Increasing the knowledge on the predictors of iron-deficiency anemia (IDA) may facilitate its timely diagnosis. AIM: To investigate the predictors of IDA in older people in four European countries. DESIGN AND SETTING: Retrospective longitudinal study. Primary care patients aged 65 or older (N = 24,051) in four European countries. METHODS: IDA predictors were estimated using multivariate Cox regression based on information gathered from national primary care databases: Italy (years 2002-2013), Belgium, Germany and Spain (years 2007-2012). Adjusted hazard ratios (aHR) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated. RESULTS: In Spain and Belgium, men were at greater risk of IDA than women, while they had a lower risk in Italy. Weakness, irritability, alopecia and xerostomia were signs and symptoms significantly associated with IDA. Concurrent diseases, potential causes of anemia, positively associated with IDA were small bowel polyposis, stomach cancer, obesity, gastritis and peptic ulcer, esophagitis, Crohn's disease, celiac disease, lymphangiectasis, gastrectomy or gastric atrophy, gut resection or bypass, and cardiac prosthetic valve. Aspirin users had a 12-35% higher hazard of IDA than non-users. Similarly, corticosteroids and anti-acids were positively associated with IDA. A higher level of comorbidity was associated with an increased hazard of IDA in all countries. CONCLUSIONS: Specific signs and symptoms, chronic conditions, a greater comorbidity burden, and specific pharmacological treatments registered in primary care databases represent relevant predictors and correlates of incident IDA in older people in Europe. General practitioners might employ this information to obtain early diagnosis of IDA in community-dwelling older adults.

The impact of COVID-19 on health status of home-dwelling elderly patients with dementia in East Lombardy, Italy: results from COVIDEM network.

BACKGROUND: COVID-19 outbreak has led to severe health burden in the elderly. Age, morbidity and dementia have been associated with adverse outcome. AIMS: To evaluate the impact of COVID-19 on health status in home-dwelling patients. METHODS: 848 home-dwelling outpatients with dementia contacted from April 27 to 30 and evaluated by a semi-structured interview to evaluate possible health complication due to COVID-19 from February 21 to April 30. Age, sex, education, clinical characteristics (including diagnosis of dementia) and flu vaccination history were obtained from previous medical records. Items regarding change in health status and outcome since the onset of the outbreak were collected. COVID-19 was diagnosed in patients who developed symptoms according to WHO criteria or tested positive at nasal/throat swab if hospitalized. Unplanned hospitalization, institutionalization and mortality were recorded. RESULTS: Patients were 79.7 years old (SD 7.1) and 63.1% were females. Ninety-five (11.2%) patients developed COVID-19-like symptoms. Non COVID-19 and COVID-19 patients differed for frequency of diabetes (18.5% vs. 37.9%, p < 0.001), COPD (7.3% vs. 18.9%, p < 0.001), and previous flu vaccination (56.7% vs. 37.9%, p < 0.001). Diabetes and COPD were positively associated with COVID-19, whereas higher dementia severity and flu vaccination showed an inverse association. Among COVID-19 patients, 42 (44.2%) were hospitalized while 32 (33.7%) died. Non COVID-19 patients' hospitalization and mortality rate were 1.9% and 1.2%, respectively. COVID-19 and COPD were significantly associated with the rate of mortality. DISCUSSION/CONCLUSIONS: A high proportion of adverse outcome related to COVID-19 was observed in home-dwelling elderly patients with dementia. Active monitoring though telehealth programs would be useful particularly for those at highest risk of developing COVID-19 and its adverse outcomes.

Comparing the prognostic value of geriatric health indicators: a population-based study.

BACKGROUND: The identification of individuals at increased risk of poor health-related outcomes is a priority. Geriatric research has proposed several indicators shown to be associated with these outcomes, but a head-to-head comparison of their predictive accuracy is still lacking. We therefore aimed to compare the accuracy of five geriatric health indicators in predicting different outcomes among older persons: frailty index (FI), frailty phenotype (FP), walking speed (WS), multimorbidity, and a summary score including clinical diagnoses, functioning, and disability (the Health Assessment Tool; HAT). METHODS: Data were retrieved from the Swedish National Study on Aging and Care in Kungsholmen, an ongoing longitudinal study including 3363 people aged 60+. To inspect the accuracy of geriatric health indicators, we employed areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) for the prediction of 3-year and 5-year mortality, 1-year and 3-year unplanned hospitalizations (1+), and contacts with healthcare providers in the 6 months before and after baseline evaluation (2+). RESULTS: FI, WS, and HAT showed the best accuracy in the prediction of mortality [AUC(95%CI) for 3-year mortality 0.84 (0.82-0.86), 0.85 (0.83-0.87), 0.87 (0.85-0.88) and AUC(95%CI) for 5-year mortality 0.84 (0.82-0.86), 0.85 (0.83-0.86), 0.86 (0.85-0.88), respectively]. Unplanned hospitalizations were better predicted by the FI [AUC(95%CI) 1-year 0.73 (0.71-0.76); 3-year 0.72 (0.70-0.73)] and HAT [AUC(95%CI) 1-year 0.73 (0.71-0.75); 3-year 0.71 (0.69-0.73)]. The most accurate predictor of multiple contacts with healthcare providers was multimorbidity [AUC(95%CI) 0.67 (0.65-0.68)]. Predictions were generally less accurate among younger individuals (< 78 years old). CONCLUSION: Specific geriatric health indicators predict clinical outcomes with different accuracy. Comprehensive indicators (HAT, FI, WS) perform better in predicting mortality and hospitalization. Multimorbidity exhibits the best accuracy in the prediction of multiple contacts with providers.

Depression and heart failure: an intricate relationship.

In patients with heart failure (HF), depression is common and associated with adverse outcomes such as reduced adherence to treatment, poor quality of life, increased hospitalizations and elevated mortality. Despite these adverse impacts, depression remain underdiagnosed in HF patients. We performed a target review of the literature to identify the association between HF and depression, to examine the mechanisms that link these two conditions and to identify instruments for an accurate diagnosis and treatment of depression in HF patients. Depression is associated with the development and progression of HF, including increased rates of mortality, mediated by behavioral and pathophysiological mechanisms. The overlap of symptoms between depression and HF often makes the diagnosis of depression difficult and late. Currently, specific guidelines for depression screening in HF patients are lacking, partly because evidences showing that depression screening improves cardiac outcomes are insufficient. European guidelines suggest the early use of instruments such as the Beck Depression Inventory (BDI) and the Geriatric Depression Scale (GDS), both characterized by accuracy and administration simplicity. There is limited evidence of pharmacological treatment and psychotherapy efficacy in patients with HF. However, cognitive-behavioral therapy has been shown to improve outcomes HF patients, and selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors appear safe in this cohort.

Living Longer But Frailer? Temporal Trends in Life Expectancy and Frailty in Older Swedish Adults.

BACKGROUND: This study aims to examine temporal trends in frailty state transitions, and years spent frail, in older Swedish adults. METHODS: We followed the Swedish National Study on Aging and Care in Kungsholmen participants from baseline (2001-2004) for 15 (median: 9.6) years. A 40-deficit frailty index (FI) was constructed to identify 3 frailty states: robust (FI ≤ 0.125), mild frailty (0.125 < FI ≤ 0.25), and moderate and severe frailty (FI  > 0.25). Multistate survival analyses were implemented to obtain hazard ratios (HRs) for frailty state transitions, with birth year and sex as predictors. To examine temporal trends, frailty state-specific life expectancies at age 60 were forecasted for robust persons born in different years (1900, 1910, 1920, 1930, and 1940), also by sex. RESULTS: At baseline, the 2 941 participants' mean age was 75 years and 65% were women. Predicted life expectancy and time spent frail from age 60 followed an increasing trend by birth year. Hazards of transitioning from mild frailty to death (HR: 0.89; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.83-0.97) and moderate and severe frailty to death (HR: 0.98; 95% CI: 0.97-1.00) were lower for those born later. Women were less likely to transition from robust to mild frailty (HR: 0.81; 95% CI: 0.70-0.93), mild frailty to moderate and severe frailty (HR: 0.80; 95% CI: 0.68-0.93), and moderate and severe frailty to death (HR: 0.68; 95% CI: 0.59-0.78), but spent more time frail. CONCLUSIONS: Our results point to an expansion of time spent frail among older Swedish adults over time.

Health trajectories in older patients hospitalized for COVID-19: Results from the GeroCovid multicenter study.

BACKGROUND: COVID-19 has disproportionately affected older adults. Yet, healthcare trajectories experienced by older persons hospitalized for COVID-19 have not been investigated. This study aimed at estimating the probabilities of transitions between severity states in older adults admitted in COVID-19 acute wards and at identifying the factors associated with such dynamics. METHODS: COVID-19 patients aged ≥60 years hospitalized between March and December 2020 were involved in the multicentre GeroCovid project-acute wards substudy. Sociodemographic and health data were obtained from medical records. Clinical states during hospitalization were categorized on a seven-category scale, ranging from hospital discharge to death. Based on the transitions between these states, first, we defined patients' clinical course as positive (only improvements), negative (only worsening), or fluctuating (both improvements and worsening). Second, we focused on the single transitions between clinical states and estimated their probability (through multistage Markov modeling) and associated factors (with proportional intensity models). RESULTS: Of the 1024 included patients (mean age 78.1 years, 51.1% women), 637 (62.2%) had a positive, 66 (6.4%) had a fluctuating, and 321 (31.3%) had a negative clinical course. Patients with a fluctuating clinical course were younger, had better mobility and cognitive levels, fewer diseases, but a higher prevalence of cardiovascular disease and obesity. Considering the single transitions, the probability that older COVID-19 patients experienced clinical changes was higher within a 10-day timeframe, especially for milder clinical states. Older age, male sex, lower mobility level, multimorbidity, and hospitalization during the COVID-19 first wave (compared with the second one) were associated with an increased probability of progressing towards worse clinical states or with a lower recovery. CONCLUSION: COVID-19 in older inpatients has a complex and dynamic clinical course. Identifying individuals more likely to experience a fluctuating clinical course and sudden worsening may help organize healthcare resources and clinical management across settings at different care intensity levels.

Early Onset Delirium During Hospitalization Increases In-Hospital and Postdischarge Mortality in COVID-19 Patients: A Multicenter Prospective Study.

Objective: Delirium is a common feature in COVID-19 patients. Although its association with in-hospital mortality has previously been reported, data concerning postdischarge mortality and delirium subtypes are scarce. We evaluated the association between delirium and its subtypes and both in-hospital and postdischarge mortality.Methods: This multicenter longitudinal clinical-based study was conducted in Monza and Brescia, Italy. The study population included 1,324 patients (median age: 68 years) with COVID-19 admitted to 4 acute clinical wards in northern Italy during the first pandemic waves (February 2020 to January 2021). Delirium within 48 hours of hospital admission was assessed through validated scores and/or clinically according to DSM-5 criteria. The association of delirium-and its subtypes-with in-hospital and postdischarge mortality (over a median observation period of 257 [interquartile range: 189-410] days) was evaluated through Cox proportional hazards models.Results: The 223 patients (16.8%) presenting delirium had around 2-fold increased in-hospital (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.94; 95% CI, 1.38-2.73) and postdischarge (HR = 2.01; 95% CI, 1.48-2.73) mortality than those without delirium. All delirium subtypes were associated with greater risk of death compared to the absence of delirium, but hypoactive delirium revealed the strongest associations with both in-hospital (HR = 2.03; 95% CI, 1.32-3.13) and postdischarge (HR = 2.22; 95% CI, 1.52-3.26) mortality.Conclusions: In patients with COVID-19, early onset delirium is associated not only with in-hospital mortality but also with shorter postdischarge survival. This suggests that delirium detection and management are crucial to improving the prognosis of COVID-19 patients.Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT04412265.

Development and validation of an electronic database-based frailty index to predict mortality and hospitalization in a population-based study of adults with SARS-CoV-2.

Background: Electronic health databases are used to identify people at risk of poor outcomes. Using electronic regional health databases (e-RHD), we aimed to develop and validate a frailty index (FI), compare it with a clinically based FI, and assess its association with health outcomes in community-dwellers with SARS-CoV-2. Methods: Data retrieved from the Lombardy e-RHD were used to develop a 40-item FI (e-RHD-FI) in adults (i.e., aged ≥18 years) with a positive nasopharyngeal swab polymerase chain reaction test for SARS-CoV-2 by May 20, 2021. The considered deficits referred to the health status before SARS-CoV-2. The e-RHD-FI was validated against a clinically based FI (c-FI) obtained from a cohort of people hospitalized with COVID-19 and in-hospital mortality was evaluated. e-RHD-FI performance was evaluated to predict 30-day mortality, hospitalization, and 60-day COVID-19 WHO clinical progression scale, in Regional Health System beneficiaries with SARS-CoV-2. Results: We calculated the e-RHD-FI in 689,197 adults (51.9% females, median age 52 years). On the clinical cohort, e-RHD-FI correlated with c-FI and was significantly associated with in-hospital mortality. In a multivariable Cox model, adjusted for confounders, each 0.1-point increment of e-RHD-FI was associated with increased 30-day mortality (Hazard Ratio, HR 1.45, 99% Confidence Intervals, CI: 1.42-1.47), 30-day hospitalization (HR per 0.1-point increment = 1.47, 99%CI: 1.46-1.49), and WHO clinical progression scale (Odds Ratio = 1.84 of deteriorating by one category, 99%CI 1.80-1.87). Conclusion: The e-RHD-FI can predict 30-day mortality, 30-day hospitalization, and WHO clinical progression scale in a large population of community-dwellers with SARS-CoV-2 test positivity. Our findings support the need to assess frailty with e-RHD.

Beyond Chronological Age: A Multidimensional Approach to Survival Prediction in Older Adults.

BACKGROUND: There is a growing interest in generating precise predictions of survival to improve the assessment of health and life-improving interventions. We aimed to (a) test if observable characteristics may provide a survival prediction independent of chronological age; (b) identify the most relevant predictors of survival; and (c) build a metric of multidimensional age. METHODS: Data from 3 095 individuals aged ≥60 from the Swedish National Study on Aging and Care in Kungsholmen. Eighty-three variables covering 5 domains (diseases, risk factors, sociodemographics, functional status, and blood tests) were tested in penalized Cox regressions to predict 18-year mortality. RESULTS: The best prediction of mortality at different follow-ups (area under the receiver operating characteristic curves [AUROCs] 0.878-0.909) was obtained when 15 variables from all 5 domains were tested simultaneously in a penalized Cox regression. Significant prediction improvements were observed when chronological age was included as a covariate for 15- but not for 5- and 10-year survival. When comparing individual domains, we find that a combination of functional characteristics (ie, gait speed, cognition) gave the most accurate prediction, with estimates similar to chronological age for 5- (AUROC 0.836) and 10-year (AUROC 0.830) survival. Finally, we built a multidimensional measure of age by regressing the predicted mortality risk on chronological age, which displayed a stronger correlation with time to death (R = -0.760) than chronological age (R = -0.660) and predicted mortality better than widely used geriatric indices. CONCLUSIONS: Combining easily accessible characteristics can help in building highly accurate survival models and multidimensional age metrics with potentially broad geriatric and biomedical applications.

Frailty detection among primary care older patients through the Primary Care Frailty Index (PC-FI).

The prompt identification of frailty in primary care is the first step to offer personalized care to older individuals. We aimed to detect and quantify frailty among primary care older patients, by developing and validating a primary care frailty index (PC-FI) based on routinely collected health records and providing sex-specific frailty charts. The PC-FI was developed using data from 308,280 primary care patients ≥ 60 years old part of the Health Search Database (HSD) in Italy (baseline 2013-2019) and validated in the Swedish National Study on Aging and Care in Kungsholmen (SNAC-K; baseline 2001-2004), a well-characterized population-based cohort including 3363 individuals ≥ 60 years old. Potential health deficits part of the PC-FI were identified through ICD-9, ATC, and exemption codes and selected through an optimization algorithm (i.e., genetic algorithm), using all-cause mortality as the main outcome for the PC-FI development. The PC-FI association at 1, 3 and 5 years, and discriminative ability for mortality and hospitalization were tested in Cox models. The convergent validity with frailty-related measures was verified in SNAC-K. The following cut-offs were used to define absent, mild, moderate and severe frailty: < 0.07, 0.07-0.14, 0.14-0.21, and ≥ 0.21. Mean age of HSD and SNAC-K participants was 71.0 years (55.4% females). The PC-FI included 25 health deficits and showed an independent association with mortality (hazard ratio range 2.03-2.27; p < 0.05) and hospitalization (hazard ratio range 1.25-1.64; p < 0.05) and a fair-to-good discriminative ability (c-statistics range 0.74-0.84 for mortality and 0.59-0.69 for hospitalization). In HSD 34.2%, 10.9% and 3.8% were deemed mildly, moderately, and severely frail, respectively. In the SNAC-K cohort, the associations between PC-FI and mortality and hospitalization were stronger than in the HSD and PC-FI scores were associated with physical frailty (odds ratio 4.25 for each 0.1 increase; p < 0.05; area under the curve 0.84), poor physical performance, disability, injurious falls, and dementia. Almost 15% of primary care patients ≥ 60 years old are affected by moderate or severe frailty in Italy. We propose a reliable, automated, and easily implementable frailty index that can be used to screen the primary care population for frailty.

Risk factors for multimorbidity in adulthood: A systematic review.

BACKGROUND: Multimorbidity, the coexistence of multiple chronic diseases in an individual, is highly prevalent and challenging for healthcare systems. However, its risk factors remain poorly understood. OBJECTIVE: To systematically review studies reporting multimorbidity risk factors. METHODS: A PRISMA-compliant systematic review was conducted, searching electronic databases (MEDLINE, EMBASE, Web of Science, Scopus). Inclusion criteria were studies addressing multimorbidity transitions, trajectories, continuous disease counts, and specific patterns. Non-human studies and participants under 18 were excluded. Associations between risk factors and multimorbidity onset were reported. RESULTS: Of 20,806 identified studies, 68 were included, with participants aged 18-105 from 23 countries. Nine risk factor categories were identified, including demographic, socioeconomic, and behavioral factors. Older age, low education, obesity, hypertension, depression, low pysical function were generally positively associated with multimorbidity. Results for factors like smoking, alcohol consumption, and dietary patterns were inconsistent. Study quality was moderate, with 16.2% having low risk of bias. CONCLUSIONS: Several risk factors seem to be consistently associated with an increased risk of accumulating chronic diseases over time. However, heterogeneity in settings, exposure and outcome, and baseline health of participants hampers robust conclusions.

Mechanical Ventilation in COVID-19 Patients: Insights into the Role of Age and Frailty from a Multicentre Observational Study.

In patients with COVID-19, frailty has been shown to better predict outcomes than age alone. We investigated factors associated with mechanical ventilation (MV) during hospitalization for COVID-19 among older adults in a multicentre study during the first two waves in Italy. Using data from the FRACOVID project, we included consecutive patients admitted to the participating centres during the first and second waves. We recorded sociodemographics, comorbidities, time since symptom onset, ventilatory support at admission, and chest X-ray findings. Frailty was assessed using a frailty index (FI). Results are reported as hazard ratios (HR) with 95%CI. 1,344 patients were included; 487 females (36.2%), median age 68 (56; 79) years; 52.4% had hypertension, 10.6% had chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, 15.2% were obese. Median FI was 0.088 (0.03, 0.20), and 67% had bilateral consolidations at admission. Median time since symptom onset was 7 days (4, 10). During hospitalization, 47 patients (3.6%, 95%CI 0.33-13.6%) received MV. Multivariable Cox regression analysis found that the likelihood of intubation decreased with increasing age (HR 0.945 (95%CI 0.921-0.969), p<0.0001), while heart rate >110bpm (HR 3.429 (95%CI 1.583-7.429), p=0.0018), and need for continuous positive airway pressure (CPAP) at admission (HR 2.626 (95%CI 1.330-5.186), p=0.0054) were significantly associated with a greater likelihood of intubation. Older patients are less likely to receive intubation, while those with heart rate >110 bpm and need for CPAP at admission are more likely to receive MV during hospitalization for COVID-19.