Impact of socioeconomic factors and health determinants on preterm birth in Brazil: a register-based study.

BACKGROUND: More than 15 million children are born preterm annually. While preterm survival rates have increased in high-income countries. Low- and middle-income countries, like Brazil, continue to battle high neonatal mortality rates due to a lack of adequate postnatal care. Globally, neonatal mortality is higher for preterm infants compared to those born at term. Our study aims to map and analyze the spatial, socioeconomic, and health coverage determinants related to preterm birth in Brazil in order to understand how spatial variations in demographics and access to primary care may affect preterm birth occurrences.  METHODS: Using publicly available national-level data from the Brazilian health system for 2008-2017, we conducted an ecological study to visualize the spatial distributions of preterm birth along with socioeconomic status, the structure of health services, and primary care work process, each consisting of multiple variables reduced via principal component analysis. Regression models were created to determine predictive effects of numeric and spatial variation of these scores on preterm birth rates. RESULTS: In Brazil, preterm birth rates increased from 2008-2017, with small and rural municipalities frequently exhibiting higher rates than urban areas. Scores in socioeconomic status and work process were significant predictors of preterm birth rates, without taking into account spatial adjustment, with more positive scores in socioeconomic status predicting higher preterm birth rates (coefficient 0.001145) and higher scores in work process predicting lower preterm birth rates (coefficient -0.002416). Geographically weighted regression showed socioeconomic status to be a more significant predictor in the North, with the work process indicators being most significant in the Northeast. CONCLUSIONS: Results support that primary care work process indicators are more significant in estimating preterm birth rates than physical structures available for care. These results emphasize the importance of ensuring the presence of the minimum human resources needed, especially in the most deprived areas of Brazil. The association between social determinants of health and preterm birth rates raises questions regarding the importance of policies dedicated to foster equity in the accessibility of healthcare services, and improve income as protective proxies for preterm birth.

[Factors associated with hospitalizations for primary care-sensitive conditions in Brazil: an ecological studyFactores asociados a las hospitalizaciones infantiles por afecciones que podrían tratarse en la atención primaria en Brasil: estudio ecológico]. / Fatores associados às internações infantis por condições sensíveis à atenção primária no Brasil: estudo ecológico.

Objective: To investigate whether structural aspects of primary care units (PCUs) and the work processes of primary care teams are associated with the rate of hospitalizations for primary care-sensitive conditions (HPCSC) in children younger than 5 years of age in Brazil. Method: For this longitudinal ecological study, secondary data were obtained from the Brazilian Hospital Information System and from three cycles of the National Program for Access and Quality Improvement in Primary Care (PMAQ-AB) (2012, 2014, 2017/2018). The analysis included 42 916 PCUs. A multilevel random intercept model with fixed slope was used. In the first level, the outcome (HPCSC rates) and explanatory variables (structure and process indicators) aggregated by PCU were analyzed. Social determinants (represented by a stratification criterion combining municipality population and health care management indicators) were entered in the second level. The t test with Bonferroni correction was used to compare indicator means between regions, and multilevel linear regression was used to estimate the correlation coefficients. Results: The HPCSC rate in children younger than 5 years was 62.78/100 thousand population per estimated PCU coverage area. A direct association with the outcome was observed for: participation in one or more PMAQ-AB cycles; team planning; special hours; dedicated pediatric care area; and availability of vaccines. Equipment, materials, supplies, and being a small or medium-size municipality were inversely associated with HPCSC. Conclusions: HPCSC rates in children below 5 years of age may potentially be reduced through improvements in PCU structure and process indicators and in municipal social determinants.

Objetivo: Determinar la asociación de la estructura de las unidades básicas de salud (UBS) y del proceso de trabajo de los equipos de atención primaria con los determinantes sociales y las tasas de hospitalización por afecciones que podrían tratarse en la atención primaria en menores de 5 años en Brasil. Métodos: Estudio longitudinal ecológico, con datos secundarios del Sistema de Informaciones Hospitalarias y los tres ciclos del Programa Nacional de Mejora del Acceso y de la Calidad de la Atención Básica (PMAQ-AB) (2012, 2014, 2017-2018). Se analizaron 42.916 UBS. Se aplicó un modelo multinivel con pendiente fija e intercepción aleatoria. En el primer nivel, se analizaron el desenlace (tasas de hospitalización por afecciones que podrían tratarse en los servicios de atención primaria) y las variables explicativas (indicadores estructurales y procedimentales) consolidados por UBS. En el segundo nivel, se incluyeron determinantes sociales municipales (representados por un criterio de estratificación que combina el tamaño del municipio con indicadores que influyen en la gestión de salud). Se utilizó la prueba de la t con la corrección de Bonferroni para comparar las medias de los indicadores entre las regiones y la regresión lineal multinivel para estimar los coeficientes de correlación. Resultados: La tasa de hospitalización por afecciones que podrían tratarse en los servicios de atención primaria en menores de 5 años fue de 62,78/100 mil habitantes por área estimada de cobertura de UBS. Los siguientes factores presentaron una asociación directa con el desenlace: participación en uno o más ciclos del PMAQ-AB; planificación del equipo; horario especial; dependencias de atención infantil en la unidad; y disponibilidad de vacunas. La variable relativa a equipos, materiales e insumos y la clasificación como municipio pequeño o mediano se asociaron inversamente con las hospitalizaciones por afecciones que podrían tratarse en los servicios de atención primaria. Conclusiones: Las hospitalizaciones de menores de 5 años por afecciones que podrían tratarse en los servicios de atención primaria pueden reducirse mejorando los indicadores estructurales y procedimentales de las UBS y los determinantes sociales municipales.

Is there a fair distribution of the structure of dental services in the capitals of the Brazilian Federative Units?

BACKGROUND: Brazilian Primary Care Facilities (PCF) provide primary care and must offer dental services for diagnosis, prevention, and treatment of diseases. According to a logic of promoting equity, PCF should be better structured in less developed places and with higher need for oral health services. OBJECTIVE: To analyze the structure of dental caries services in the capitals of the Brazilian Federative Units and identify whether socioeconomic factors and caries (need) are predictors of the oral health services structure. METHODS: This is an ecological study with variables retrieved from different secondary databases, clustered for the level of the federative capitals. Descriptive thematic maps were prepared, and structural equations were analyzed to identify oral health service structure's predictors (Alpha = 5%). Four models with different outcomes related to dental caries treatment were tested: 1) % of PCF with a fully equipped office; 2) % of PCF with sufficient instruments, and 3) % of PCF with sufficient supplies; 4) % of PCF with total structure. RESULTS: 21.6% of the PCF of the Brazilian capitals had a fully equipped office; 46.9% had sufficient instruments, and 30.0% had sufficient supplies for caries prevention and treatment. The four models evidenced proper fit indexes. A correlation between socioeconomic factors and the structure of oral health services was only noted in model 3. The worse the socioeconomic conditions, the lower the availability of dental supplies (standard factor loading: 0.92, P = 0.012). Estimates of total, direct and indirect effects showed that dental caries experience observed in the Brazilian population by SB-Brasil in 2010 did not affect the outcomes investigated. CONCLUSION: Material resources are not equitably distributed according to the socioeconomic conditions and oral health needs of the population of the Brazilian capitals, thus contributing to persistent oral health inequities in the country.

An evaluation of outcomes in patients with traumatic brain injury at a referral hospital in Tanzania: evidence from a survival analysis.

OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this study was to determine if patients with traumatic brain injury (TBI) in low- and middle-income countries who receive surgery have better outcomes than patients with TBI who do not receive surgery, and whether this differs with severity of injury. METHODS: The authors generated a series of Kaplan-Meier plots and performed multiple Cox proportional hazard models to assess the relationship between TBI surgery and TBI severity. The TBI severity was categorized using admission Glasgow Coma Scale scores: mild (14, 15), moderate (9-13), or severe (3-8). The authors investigated outcomes from admission to hospital day 14. The outcome considered was the Glasgow Outcome Scale-Extended, categorized as poor outcome (1-4) and good outcome (5-8). The authors used TBI registry data collected from 2013 to 2017 at a regional referral hospital in Tanzania. RESULTS: Of the final 2502 patients, 609 (24%) received surgery and 1893 (76%) did not receive surgery. There were significantly fewer road traffic injuries and more violent causes of injury in those receiving surgery. Those receiving surgery were also more likely to receive care in the ICU, to have a poor outcome, to have a moderate or severe TBI, and to stay in the hospital longer. The hazard ratio for patients with TBI who underwent operation versus those who did not was 0.17 (95% CI 0.06-0.49; p < 0.001) in patients with moderate TBI; 0.2 (95% CI 0.06-0.64; p = 0.01) for those with mild TBI, and 0.47 (95% CI 0.24-0.89; p = 0.02) for those with severe TBI. CONCLUSIONS: Those who received surgery for their TBI had a lower hazard for poor outcome than those who did not. Surgical intervention was associated with the greatest improvement in outcomes for moderate head injuries, followed by mild and severe injuries. The findings suggest a reprioritization of patients with moderate TBI-a drastic change to the traditional practice within low- and middle-income countries in which the most severely injured patients are prioritized for care.

[Proposal for a methodology to estimate the potential coverage of primary care teamsPropuesta de una metodología para estimar el área de cobertura potencial de los equipos de atención primaria]. / Proposta de metodologia para estimar a área de cobertura potencial por equipes de atenção primária.

OBJECTIVE: To present a methodology for the empirical evaluation of primary health care (PHC) through the construction of digital representations of potential PHC coverage areas. METHODS: In this methodological study, potential areas were constructed by combinatorial analysis between census tracts and the location of basic health units with working PHC teams in Brazil. Six rules were used to parameterize the algorithm for the construction of potential areas. Thus, six restrictions were applied to enable the model: the selection of census tracts near the basic health unit; contiguous sectors; mutually exclusive sectors; sectors located in the same municipality of basic health units; sum of 4 500 users per health team in each unit; and volume of population ascribed proportional to the number of PHC teams allocated to the unit. Based on 316 594 census tracts and 39 758 basic health units, a neighborhood matrix was developed. To that matrix, a graph algorithm was applied to test combinations of sectors that simultaneously met the stipulated rules. RESULTS: A total of 1 901 114 arcs were defined, connecting 30 351 census tracts, allowing the construction of 26 907 potential areas. Based on these results, intra-municipal analyses can be performed to monitor PHC indicators. Customizable algorithm parameters can be adjusted to accommodate different sets of rules which may be adapted to different countries. CONCLUSIONS: The use of geoprocessing approaches creates conditions for the assessment of PHC impact, based on secondary databases at various levels, such as intra-municipal, basic health unit, and even at the team level.

OBJETIVO: Presentar una metodología para la evaluación empírica de la atención primaria de salud (APS) a través de la construcción de representaciones digitales de las áreas de cobertura potencial de los equipos de APS. MÉTODOS: Estudio de tipo metodológico. Las áreas potenciales se construyeron mediante un análisis combinatorio entre los sectores censales y la localización de las unidades básicas de salud con equipos de APS que trabajan en Brasil. Se utilizaron seis reglas para parametrizar el algoritmo de construcción de las áreas potenciales. Así, se estipularon seis restricciones que viabilizaron el modelo utilizado: selección de sectores censales cercanos a la unidad básica de salud; sectores contiguos; sectores mutuamente excluyentes; sectores ubicados en el mismo municipio de la unidad básica de salud; suma de 4 500 usuarios por equipo de salud en cada unidad básica de salud; y volumen de población adscrita proporcional al número de equipos de APS asignados en la unidad básica de salud. A partir de 316 574 sectores censales y 39 758 unidades básicas de salud se desarrolló una matriz de vecindad sobre la cual se aplicó un algoritmo gráfico que evaluaba las combinaciones de sectores que cumplían simultáneamente las reglas estipuladas. RESULTADOS: Se definieron en total 1 901 114 arcos, que conectaron 30 351 sectores censales, lo que permitió la construcción de 26 907 áreas potenciales. Sobre la base de estos resultados, se pueden realizar análisis intramunicipales para monitorear los indicadores de APS. Los parámetros modificables del algoritmo se pueden ajustar para adaptarse a diferentes conjuntos de reglas y a diferentes países. CONCLUSIONES: El uso de enfoques basados en geoprocesamiento puede crear condiciones para la evaluación del impacto de la APS conforme a bases de datos secundarias y a nivel intramunicipal, de la unidad básica de salud e incluso a nivel de equipo.

[More Doctors recruitment program: a new approach to overcome inequalities in human resourcesPrograma Más Médicos: cómo evaluar el impacto de un enfoque innovador para superar las inequidades en recursos humanos]. / Programa Mais Médicos: como avaliar o impacto de uma abordagem inovadora para superação de iniquidades em recursos humanos.

Despite the 40 years elapsed since the Alma-Ata principles were first launched, a series of challenges still persists for the consolidation of primary health care (PHC) as the backbone of health care systems around the world. Among these challenges, especially noteworthy are the issues associated with the inequality in the allocation of human resources. The experience of the More Doctors Program (Programa Mais Médicos, PMM) in Brazil is an example of initiatives that tackle this inconclusive Alma-Ata agenda. By changing key aspects of physician training, provision, and allocation, PMM was shown to be a feasible alternative to minimize the challenge of physician shortage. Assessments of PMM, even though preliminary, have produced positive evidence showing increase in access and improvement of PHC quality in Brazil, a middle income country. Nevertheless, the generation of more robust evidence regarding the impact of PMM on PHC performance indicators is urgent. The discussion proposed in the present article emphasizes the need to prioritize quasi-experimental studies to measure the impact of PMM on population health. The article thus introduces a set of guidelines that may become a useful model to approach challenges associated with the shortage of health care professionals in low and middle income countries.

A pesar de que han transcurrido 40 años desde la proclamación de los principios de Alma-Ata, aún persisten desafíos para la consolidación de la atención primaria de salud (APS) como columna vertebral de los sistemas de atención de salud en todo el mundo. Entre estos desafíos, se destacan los problemas asociados con la desigualdad en la distribución de recursos humanos. La experiencia del Programa Más Médicos (PMM) en Brasil es un ejemplo de las iniciativas que abordan esta agenda inconclusa de Alma-Ata. Al cambiar aspectos clave de la capacitación, la provisión y la asignación de médicos, el PMM demostró ser una alternativa viable para minimizar el desafío de la escasez de profesionales. Las evaluaciones del PMM, aunque preliminares, han producido evidencias positivas que muestran un aumento en el acceso y mejora de la calidad de la APS en Brasil, un país de ingresos medios. Sin embargo, urge generar evidencia más sólida sobre el impacto del PMM en los indicadores de desempeño de la APS. La discusión propuesta en este trabajo enfatiza la necesidad de priorizar estudios cuasiexperimentales para medir el impacto del PMM en la salud de la población. El artículo propone un conjunto de directrices que pueden convertirse en un modelo útil para abordar los desafíos asociados con la escasez de profesionales de la salud en países de ingresos bajos y medios.

Oral primary care: an analysis of its impact on the incidence and mortality rates of oral cancer.

BACKGROUND: Oral cancer is a potentially fatal disease, especially when diagnosed in advanced stages. In Brazil, the primary health care (PHC) system is responsible for promoting oral health in order to prevent oral diseases. However, there is insufficient evidence to assess whether actions of the PHC system have some effect on the morbidity and mortality from oral cancer. The purpose of this study was to analyze the effect of PHC structure and work processes on the incidence and mortality rates of oral cancer after adjusting for contextual variables. METHODS: An ecological, longitudinal and analytical study was carried out. Data were obtained from different secondary data sources, including three surveys that were nationally representative of Brazilian PHC and carried out over the course of 10 years (2002-2012). Data were aggregated at the state level at different times. Oral cancer incidence and mortality rates, standardized by age and gender, served as the dependent variables. Covariables (sociodemographic, structure of basic health units, and work process in oral health) were entered in the regression models using a hierarchical approach based on a theoretical model. Analysis of mixed effects with random intercept model was also conducted (alpha = 5%). RESULTS: The oral cancer incidence rate was positively association with the proportion of of adults over 60 years (ß = 0.59; p = 0.010) and adult smokers (ß = 0.29; p = 0.010). The oral cancer related mortality rate was positively associated with the proportion of of adults over 60 years (ß = 0.24; p < 0.001) and the performance of preventative and diagnostic actions for oral cancer (ß = 0.02; p = 0.002). Mortality was inversely associated with the coverage of primary care teams (ß = -0.01; p < 0.006) and PHC financing (ß = -0.52-9; p = 0.014). CONCLUSIONS: In Brazil, the PHC structure and work processes have been shown to help reduce the mortality rate of oral cancer, but not the incidence rate of the disease. We recommend expanding investments in PHC in order to prevent oral cancer related deaths.

Addressing geographic access barriers to emergency care services: a national ecologic study of hospitals in Brazil.

BACKGROUND: Unequal distribution of emergency care services is a critical barrier to be overcome to assure access to emergency and surgical care. Considering this context it was objective of the present work analyze geographic access barriers to emergency care services in Brazil. A secondary aim of the study is to define possible roles to be assumed by small hospitals in the Brazilian healthcare network to overcome geographic access challenges. METHODS: The present work can be classified as a cross-sectional ecological study. To carry out the present study, data of all 5843 Brazilian hospitals were categorized among high complexity centers and small hospitals. The geographical access barriers were identified through the use of two-step floating catchment area method. Once concluded the previous step an evaluation using the Getis-Ord-Gi method was performed to identify spatial clusters of municipalities with limited access to high complexity centers but well covered by well-equipped small hospitals. RESULTS: The analysis of accessibility index of high complexity centers highlighted large portions of the country with nearly zero hospital beds by inhabitant. In contrast, it was possible observe a group of 1595 municipalities with high accessibility to small hospitals, simultaneously with a low coverage of high complexity centers. Among the 1595 municipalities with good accessibility to small hospitals, 74% (1183) were covered by small hospitals with at least 60% of minimum emergency service requirements. The spatial clusters analysis aggregated 589 municipalities with high values related to minimum emergency service requirements. Small hospitals in these 589 cities could promote the equity in access to emergency services benefiting more than eight million people. CONCLUSIONS: There is a spatial disequilibrium within the country with prominent gaps in the health care network for emergency services. Taking this challenge into consideration, small hospitals could be a possible solution and foster equity in access to emergency and surgical care. However more investments in are necessary to improve small hospitals capabilities to fill this gap.

Progress and challenges in potential access to oral health primary care services in Brazil: A population-based panel study with latent transition analysis.

OBJECTIVE: Compared indicators of potential access to oral health services sought in two cycles of the Program for Improvement of Access and Quality of Primary Care (PMAQ-AB), verifying whether the program generated changes in access to oral health services. METHODS: Transitional analysis of latent classes was used to analyze two cross-sections of the external evaluation of the PMAQ-AB (Cycle I: 2011-2012 and Cycle II: 2013-2014), identifying completeness classes for a structure and work process related to oral health. Consider three indicators of structure (presence of a dental surgeon, existence of a dental office and operating at minimum hours) and five of the work process (scheduling every day of the week, home visits, basic dental procedures, scheduling for spontaneous demand and continuation of treatment). Choropleth maps and hotspots were made. RESULTS: The proportion of elements that had one or more dentist (CD), dental office and operated at minimum hours varied from 65.56% to 67.13 between the two cycles of the PMAQ-AB. The number of teams that made appointments every day of the week increased 8.7% and those that made home visits varied from 44.51% to 52.88%. The reduction in the number of teams that reported guaranteeing the agenda for accommodating spontaneous demand, varying from 62.41% to 60.11% and in the continuity of treatment, varying from 63.41% to 61.11%. For the structure of health requirements, the predominant completeness profile was "Best completeness" in both cycles, comprising 71.0% of the sets at time 1 and 67.0% at time 2. The proportion of teams with "Best completeness" increased by 89.1%, the one with "Worst completeness" increased by 20%, while those with "Average completeness" decreased by 66.3%. CONCLUSION: We identified positive changes in the indicators of potential access to oral health services, expanding the users' ability to use them. However, some access attributes remain unsatisfactory, with organizational barriers persisting.

Data-driven risk stratification for preterm birth in Brazil: a population-based study to develop of a machine learning risk assessment approach.

Background: Preterm birth (PTB) is a growing health issue worldwide, currently considered the leading cause of newborn deaths. To address this challenge, the present work aims to develop an algorithm capable of accurately predicting the week of delivery supporting the identification of a PTB in Brazil. Methods: This a population-based study analyzing data from 3,876,666 mothers with live births distributed across the 3,929 Brazilian municipalities. Using indicators comprising delivery characteristics, primary care work processes, and physical infrastructure, and sociodemographic data we applied a machine learning-based approach to estimate the week of delivery at the point of care level. We tested six algorithms: eXtreme Gradient Boosting, Elastic Net, Quantile Ordinal Regression - LASSO, Linear Regression, Ridge Regression and Decision Tree. We used the root-mean-square error (RMSE) as a precision. Findings: All models obtained RMSE indexes close to each other. The lower levels of RMSE were obtained using the eXtreme Gradient Boosting approach which was able to estimate the week of delivery within a 2.09 window 95%IC (2.090-2.097). The five most important variables to predict the week of delivery were: number of previous deliveries through Cesarean-Section, number of prenatal consultations, age of the mother, existence of ultrasound exam available in the care network, and proportion of primary care teams in the municipality registering the oral care consultation. Interpretation: Using simple data describing the prenatal care offered, as well as minimal characteristics of the pregnant, our approach was capable of achieving a relevant predictive performance regarding the week of delivery. Funding: Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, and National Council for Scientific and Technological Development - Brazil, (Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico - CNPQ acronym in portuguese) Support of the research project named: Data-Driven Risk Stratification for Preterm Birth in Brazil: Development of a Machine Learning-Based Innovation for Health Care- Grant: OPP1202186.

Geospatial modeling of microcephaly and zika virus spread patterns in Brazil.

Microcephaly and Zika Virus infection (ZIKV) were declared Public Health Emergencies of International Concern by the World Health Organization in 2016. Brazil was considered the epicenter of the outbreak. However, the occurrence of both ZIKV and microcephaly in Brazil was not evenly distributed across the country. To better understand this phenomenon, we investigate regional characteristics at the municipal level that can be associated with the incidence of microcephaly, our response variable, and its relationship with ZIKV and other predictors. All epidemiological data in this study was provided by the Ministry of Health official database (DATASUS). Microcephaly was only confirmed after birth and the diagnostic was made regardless of the mother's ZIKV status. Using exploratory spatial data analysis and spatial autoregressive Tobit models, our results show that microcephaly incidence is significantly, at 95% confidence level, related not only to ZIKV, but also to access to primary care, population size, gross national product, mobility and environmental attributes of the municipalities. There is also a significant spatial autocorrelation of the dependent variable. The results indicate that municipalities that show a high incidence of microcephaly tend to be clustered in space and that incidence of microcephaly varies considerably across regions when correlated only with ZIKV, i.e. that ZIKV alone cannot explain the differences in microcephaly across regions and their correlation is mediated by regional attributes.