Rate of mass loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet will exceed Holocene values this century.

The Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS) is losing mass at a high rate1. Given the short-term nature of the observational record, it is difficult to assess the historical importance of this mass-loss trend. Unlike records of greenhouse gas concentrations and global temperature, in which observations have been merged with palaeoclimate datasets, there are no comparably long records for rates of GIS mass change. Here we reveal unprecedented mass loss from the GIS this century, by placing contemporary and future rates of GIS mass loss within the context of the natural variability over the past 12,000 years. We force a high-resolution ice-sheet model with an ensemble of climate histories constrained by ice-core data2. Our simulation domain covers southwestern Greenland, the mass change of which is dominated by surface mass balance. The results agree favourably with an independent chronology of the history of the GIS margin3,4. The largest pre-industrial rates of mass loss (up to 6,000 billion tonnes per century) occurred in the early Holocene, and were similar to the contemporary (AD 2000-2018) rate of around 6,100 billion tonnes per century5. Simulations of future mass loss from southwestern GIS, based on Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios corresponding to low (RCP2.6) and high (RCP8.5) greenhouse gas concentration trajectories6, predict mass loss of between 8,800 and 35,900 billion tonnes over the twenty-first century. These rates of GIS mass loss exceed the maximum rates over the past 12,000 years. Because rates of mass loss from the southwestern GIS scale linearly5 with the GIS as a whole, our results indicate, with high confidence, that the rate of mass loss from the GIS will exceed Holocene rates this century.

The archaeology of climate change: The case for cultural diversity.

Anthropogenic climate change is currently driving environmental transformation on a scale and at a pace that exceeds historical records. This represents an undeniably serious challenge to existing social, political, and economic systems. Humans have successfully faced similar challenges in the past, however. The archaeological record and Earth archives offer rare opportunities to observe the complex interaction between environmental and human systems under different climate regimes and at different spatial and temporal scales. The archaeology of climate change offers opportunities to identify the factors that promoted human resilience in the past and apply the knowledge gained to the present, contributing a much-needed, long-term perspective to climate research. One of the strengths of the archaeological record is the cultural diversity it encompasses, which offers alternatives to the solutions proposed from within the Western agro-industrial complex, which might not be viable cross-culturally. While contemporary climate discourse focuses on the importance of biodiversity, we highlight the importance of cultural diversity as a source of resilience.

Natural variability of the Arctic Ocean sea ice during the present interglacial.

The impact of the ongoing anthropogenic warming on the Arctic Ocean sea ice is ascertained and closely monitored. However, its long-term fate remains an open question as its natural variability on centennial to millennial timescales is not well documented. Here, we use marine sedimentary records to reconstruct Arctic sea-ice fluctuations. Cores collected along the Lomonosov Ridge that extends across the Arctic Ocean from northern Greenland to the Laptev Sea were radiocarbon dated and analyzed for their micropaleontological and palynological contents, both bearing information on the past sea-ice cover. Results demonstrate that multiyear pack ice remained a robust feature of the western and central Lomonosov Ridge and that perennial sea ice remained present throughout the present interglacial, even during the climate optimum of the middle Holocene that globally peaked ∼6,500 y ago. In contradistinction, the southeastern Lomonosov Ridge area experienced seasonally sea-ice-free conditions, at least, sporadically, until about 4,000 y ago. They were marked by relatively high phytoplanktonic productivity and organic carbon fluxes at the seafloor resulting in low biogenic carbonate preservation. These results point to contrasted west-east surface ocean conditions in the Arctic Ocean, not unlike those of the Arctic dipole linked to the recent loss of Arctic sea ice. Hence, our data suggest that seasonally ice-free conditions in the southeastern Arctic Ocean with a dominant Arctic dipolar pattern, may be a recurrent feature under "warm world" climate.

Reconstructed changes in Arctic sea ice over the past 1,450 years.

Arctic sea ice extent is now more than two million square kilometres less than it was in the late twentieth century, with important consequences for the climate, the ocean and traditional lifestyles in the Arctic. Although observations show a more or less continuous decline for the past four or five decades, there are few long-term records with which to assess natural sea ice variability. Until now, the question of whether or not current trends are potentially anomalous has therefore remained unanswerable. Here we use a network of high-resolution terrestrial proxies from the circum-Arctic region to reconstruct past extents of summer sea ice, and show that-although extensive uncertainties remain, especially before the sixteenth century-both the duration and magnitude of the current decline in sea ice seem to be unprecedented for the past 1,450 years. Enhanced advection of warm Atlantic water to the Arctic seems to be the main factor driving the decline of sea ice extent on multidecadal timescales, and may result from nonlinear feedbacks between sea ice and the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. These results reinforce the assertion that sea ice is an active component of Arctic climate variability and that the recent decrease in summer Arctic sea ice is consistent with anthropogenically forced warming.

First report of fossilized cysts produced by the benthic Bysmatrum subsalsum (Dinophyceae) from a shallow Mexican lagoon in the Gulf of Mexico.

Cysts belonging to the benthic dinoflagellate Bysmatrum subsalsum were recovered from palynologically treated sediments collected in the Alvarado Lagoon (southwestern Gulf of Mexico). The cysts are proximate, reflecting the features of the parent thecal stage, and their autofluorescence implies a dinosporin composition similar to the cyst walls of phototrophic species. This finding is important for our understanding of B. subsalsum life cycle transitions and ecology. Encystment may play an important role in the bloom dynamics of this species as it can enable the formation of a sediment cyst bank that allows reinoculation of the water column when conditions become favorable. This is the first report of a fossilized cyst produced by a benthic dinoflagellate recovered from sub-recent sediments.

A new heterotrophic dinoflagellate from the North-eastern Pacific, Protoperidinium fukuyoi: cyst-theca relationship, phylogeny, distribution and ecology.

The cyst-theca relationship of Protoperidinium fukuyoi n. sp. (Dinoflagellata, Protoperidiniaceae) is established by incubating resting cysts from estuarine sediments off southern Vancouver Island, British Columbia, Canada, and San Pedro Harbor, California, USA. The cysts have a brown-coloured wall, and are characterized by a saphopylic archeopyle comprising three apical plates, the apical pore plate and canal plate; and acuminate processes typically arranged in linear clusters. We elucidate the phylogenetic relationship of P. fukuyoi through large and small subunit (LSU and SSU) rDNA sequences, and also report the SSU of the cyst-defined species Islandinium minutum (Harland & Reid) Head et al. 2001. Molecular phylogenetic analysis by SSU rDNA shows that both species are closely related to Protoperidinium americanum (Gran & Braarud 1935) Balech 1974. Large subunit rDNA phylogeny also supports a close relationship between P. fukuyoi and P. americanum. Three subgroups in total are further characterized within the Monovela group. The cyst of P. fukuyoi shows a wide geographical range along the coastal tropical to temperate areas of the North-east Pacific, its distribution reflecting optimal summer sea-surface temperatures of ~14-18 °C and salinities of 22-34 psu.

Reconstruction of Pyrodinium blooms in the tropical East Pacific (Mexico): are they related to ENSO?

Some microplanktonic species, mostly dinoflagellates, causing Harmful Algal Blooms (HABs), produce toxins which may affect the environment and human health, thus causing important economic losses. The dinoflagellate Pyrodinium bahamense var. compressum is one of the main species causing harmful algal blooms along the tropical Pacific. Although it was first reported along the Mexican coast in the 1970s, here we report that a sedimentary record of Pyrodinium cysts from the Gulf of Tehuantepec in the tropical East Pacific (Mexico), which spans from the 1860s, showed the continuous occurrence of Pyrodinium cysts and that their presence has been declining in the last few decades. Although Pyrodinium HABs have been attributed to El Niño events in the tropical Indo-West Pacific, the record shows that most blooms in the tropical East Pacific appear in periods of low sea surface temperature and higher rainfall, as can be observed during rapid shifts from cold (La Niña) to warm (El Niño) conditions in that region. This mechanism offers new ways to better predict and facilitate early detection of Pyrodinium HABs worldwide.

Complex spatio-temporal structure of the Holocene Thermal Maximum.

Inconsistencies between Holocene climate reconstructions and numerical model simulations question the robustness of climate models and proxy temperature records. Climate reconstructions suggest an early-middle Holocene Thermal Maximum (HTM) followed by gradual cooling, whereas climate models indicate continuous warming. This discrepancy either implies seasonal biases in proxy-based climate reconstructions, or that the climate model sensitivity to forcings and feedbacks needs to be reevaluated. Here, we analyze a global database of Holocene paleotemperature records to investigate the spatiotemporal structure of the HTM. Continental proxy records at mid and high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere portray a "classic" HTM (8-4 ka). In contrast, marine proxy records from the same latitudes reveal an earlier HTM (11-7ka), while a clear temperature anomaly is missing in the tropics. The results indicate a heterogeneous response to climate forcing and highlight the lack of globally synchronous HTM.

Publisher Correction: A global database of Holocene paleotemperature records.

An amendment to this paper has been published and can be accessed via a link at the top of the paper.

Author Correction: A global database of Holocene paleotemperature records.

An amendment to this paper has been published and can be accessed via a link at the top of the paper.

A global database of Holocene paleotemperature records.

A comprehensive database of paleoclimate records is needed to place recent warming into the longer-term context of natural climate variability. We present a global compilation of quality-controlled, published, temperature-sensitive proxy records extending back 12,000 years through the Holocene. Data were compiled from 679 sites where time series cover at least 4000 years, are resolved at sub-millennial scale (median spacing of 400 years or finer) and have at least one age control point every 3000 years, with cut-off values slackened in data-sparse regions. The data derive from lake sediment (51%), marine sediment (31%), peat (11%), glacier ice (3%), and other natural archives. The database contains 1319 records, including 157 from the Southern Hemisphere. The multi-proxy database comprises paleotemperature time series based on ecological assemblages, as well as biophysical and geochemical indicators that reflect mean annual or seasonal temperatures, as encoded in the database. This database can be used to reconstruct the spatiotemporal evolution of Holocene temperature at global to regional scales, and is publicly available in Linked Paleo Data (LiPD) format.

Publisher Correction: A global database of Holocene paleotemperature records.

An amendment to this paper has been published and can be accessed via a link at the top of the paper.

Palynological data of cores MSM5/5-712-2 and PS2863/1-2 from northeastern Fram Strait spanning the last glacial maximum to present.

The palynogical data of two sites from northeastern Fram Strait (MSM5/5-712 and PS2863) encompassing the last 23,000 years are presented here. The data set first includes the palynomorph concentrations: dinocysts (cysts/g) and their fluxes (cysts/cm2/yr) as well as pollen grains, spores, organic linings, Halodinium, reworked palynomorphs and Pediastrum represented in #/g. It also includes the relative abundance (%) of dinocyst taxa at sites MSM5/5-712 and PS2863. Finally, this Data in Brief comprises reconstructions of sea-surface conditions at the two sites, which include sea-surface temperature (°C) in summer and winter, sea-surface salinity (psu) in summer and winter, sea-ice cover (month/yr) and productivity (gC/m2yr). The most probable values in addition to minimum and maximum possible are reported. The data is presented in function of the cores depth and age. For more details on this data and the chronology of the cores, see [1].

Millennial-Scale Climate Variability and Dinoflagellate-Cyst-Based Seasonality Changes Over the Last ~150 kyrs at "Shackleton Site" U1385.

During the last glacial period, climate conditions in the North Atlantic region were determined by the alternation of relatively warm interstadials and relatively cool stadials, with superimposed rapid warming (Dansgaard-Oeschger) and cooling (Heinrich) events. So far little is known about the impact of these rapid climate shifts on the seasonal variations in sea surface temperature (SST) within the North Atlantic region. Here, we present a high-resolution seasonal SST record for the past 152 kyrs derived from Integrated Ocean Drilling Program "Shackleton" Site U1385, offshore Portugal. Assemblage counts of dinoflagellates cysts (dinocysts) in combination with a modern analog technique (MAT), and regression analyses were used for the reconstructions. We compare our records with previously published SST records from the same location obtained from the application of MAT on planktonic foraminifera. Our dinocyst-based reconstructions confirm the impression of the Greenland stadials and interstadials offshore the Portuguese margin and indicate increased seasonal contrast of temperature during the cold periods of the glacial cycle (average 9.0 °C, maximum 12.2 °C) with respect to present day (5.1 °C), due to strong winter cooling by up to 8.3 °C. Our seasonal temperature reconstructions are in line with previously published data, which showed increased seasonality due to strong winter cooling during the Younger Dryas and the Last Glacial Maximum over the European continent and North Atlantic region. In addition, we show that over longer time scales, increased seasonal contrasts of temperature remained characteristic of the colder phases of the glacial cycle.

Environmental forcing on the flux of organic-walled dinoflagellate cysts in recent sediments from a subtropical lagoon in the Gulf of California.

To evaluate the relationship of changes in organic-walled dinoflagellate cyst (dinocyst) fluxes to sediments with environmental variables (air and sea surface temperatures, El Niño conditions, rainfall, and terrigenous index), cyst assemblages were analyzed in a 210Pb-dated sediment core (~100years) from the pristine San José Lagoon (San José Island, SW Gulf of California). The dinocyst abundance ranged from 3784 to 25,108cystsg-1 and fluxes were of the order of 103-104cystscm-2yr-1. Lingulodinium machaerophorum, Polysphaeridium zoharyi and Spiniferites taxa accounted for 96% of the total dinocyst assemblages, and the abundances of these species increased towards the core surface. P. zoharyi fluxes increased from about 1965 onwards. Redundancy analyses, showed that mean minimum air temperature and terrigenous index were the key factors governing dinocyst fluxes. In this study, dinocyst fluxes of dominant taxa had responded to changes in climate-dependent environmental variables during the past ~20years; this may also be the case in other subtropical coastal lagoons.

Comment on "Mixed-layer deepening during Heinrich events: a multi-planktonic foraminiferal delta18O approach".

Rashid and Boyle (Reports, 19 October 2007, p. 439) analyzed oxygen isotopes in planktonic foraminera from marine sediments and concluded that Heinrich events (massive iceberg discharges into the North Atlantic Ocean) caused upper water masses to deepen. We question the robustness of this interpretation and argue that a strongly stratified mixed layer characterized by dense sea-ice cover and production of oxygen-18-depleted brines likely prevailed during such events.

Natural variability of Greenland climate, vegetation, and ice volume during the past million years.

The response of the Greenland ice sheet to global warming is a source of concern notably because of its potential contribution to changes in the sea level. We demonstrated the natural vulnerability of the ice sheet by using pollen records from marine sediment off southwest Greenland that indicate important changes of the vegetation in Greenland over the past million years. The vegetation that developed over southern Greenland during the last interglacial period is consistent with model experiments, suggesting a reduced volume of the Greenland ice sheet. Abundant spruce pollen indicates that boreal coniferous forest developed some 400,000 years ago during the "warm" interval of marine isotope stage 11, providing a time frame for the development and decline of boreal ecosystems over a nearly ice-free Greenland.