Prediction Under Interventions: Evaluation of Counterfactual Performance Using Longitudinal Observational Data.

Predictions under interventions are estimates of what a person's risk of an outcome would be if they were to follow a particular treatment strategy, given their individual characteristics. Such predictions can give important input to medical decision-making. However, evaluating the predictive performance of interventional predictions is challenging. Standard ways of evaluating predictive performance do not apply when using observational data, because prediction under interventions involves obtaining predictions of the outcome under conditions that are different from those that are observed for a subset of individuals in the validation dataset. This work describes methods for evaluating counterfactual performance of predictions under interventions for time-to-event outcomes. This means we aim to assess how well predictions would match the validation data if all individuals had followed the treatment strategy under which predictions are made. We focus on counterfactual performance evaluation using longitudinal observational data, and under treatment strategies that involve sustaining a particular treatment regime over time. We introduce an estimation approach using artificial censoring and inverse probability weighting that involves creating a validation dataset mimicking the treatment strategy under which predictions are made. We extend measures of calibration, discrimination (c-index and cumulative/dynamic AUCt) and overall prediction error (Brier score) to allow assessment of counterfactual performance. The methods are evaluated using a simulation study, including scenarios in which the methods should detect poor performance. Applying our methods in the context of liver transplantation shows that our procedure allows quantification of the performance of predictions supporting crucial decisions on organ allocation.

Cumulative incidence and risk factors for cutaneous squamous cell carcinoma metastases in organ transplant recipients: The Skin Care in Organ Transplant Patients in Europe-International Transplant Skin Cancer Collaborative metastases study, a prospective multicenter study.

INTRODUCTION: Solid organ transplant recipients (SOTRs) are believed to have an increased risk of metastatic cutaneous squamous cell carcinoma (cSCC), but reliable data are lacking regarding the precise incidence and associated risk factors. METHODS: In a prospective cohort study, including 19 specialist dermatology outpatient clinics in 15 countries, patient and tumor characteristics were collected using standardized questionnaires when SOTRs presented with a new cSCC. After a minimum of 2 years of follow-up, relevant data for all SOTRs were collected. Cumulative incidence of metastases was calculated by the Aalen-Johansen estimator. Fine and Gray models were used to assess multiple risk factors for metastases. RESULTS: Of 514 SOTRs who presented with 623 primary cSCCs, metastases developed in 37 with a 2-year patient-based cumulative incidence of 6.2%. Risk factors for metastases included location in the head and neck area, local recurrence, size > 2 cm, clinical ulceration, poor differentiation grade, perineural invasion, and deep invasion. A high-stage tumor that is also ulcerated showed the highest risk of metastasis, with a 2-year cumulative incidence of 46.2% (31.9%-68.4%). CONCLUSIONS: SOTRs have a high risk of cSCC metastases and well-established clinical and histologic risk factors have been confirmed. High-stage, ulcerated cSCCs have the highest risk of metastasis.

Assessing Performance and Clinical Usefulness in Prediction Models With Survival Outcomes: Practical Guidance for Cox Proportional Hazards Models.

Risk prediction models need thorough validation to assess their performance. Validation of models for survival outcomes poses challenges due to the censoring of observations and the varying time horizon at which predictions can be made. This article describes measures to evaluate predictions and the potential improvement in decision making from survival models based on Cox proportional hazards regression.As a motivating case study, the authors consider the prediction of the composite outcome of recurrence or death (the "event") in patients with breast cancer after surgery. They developed a simple Cox regression model with 3 predictors, as in the Nottingham Prognostic Index, in 2982 women (1275 events over 5 years of follow-up) and externally validated this model in 686 women (285 events over 5 years). Improvement in performance was assessed after the addition of progesterone receptor as a prognostic biomarker.The model predictions can be evaluated across the full range of observed follow-up times or for the event occurring by the end of a fixed time horizon of interest. The authors first discuss recommended statistical measures that evaluate model performance in terms of discrimination, calibration, or overall performance. Further, they evaluate the potential clinical utility of the model to support clinical decision making according to a net benefit measure. They provide SAS and R code to illustrate internal and external validation.The authors recommend the proposed set of performance measures for transparent reporting of the validity of predictions from survival models.

Tell me what you want, what you really really want: Estimands in observational pharmacoepidemiologic comparative effectiveness and safety studies.

PURPOSE: Ideally, the objectives of a pharmacoepidemiologic comparative effectiveness or safety study should dictate its design and data analysis. This paper discusses how defining an estimand is instrumental to this process. METHODS: We applied the ICH-E9 (Statistical Principles for Clinical Trials) R1 addendum on estimands - which originally focused on randomized trials - to three examples of observational pharmacoepidemiologic comparative effectiveness and safety studies. Five key elements specify the estimand: the population, contrasted treatments, endpoint, intercurrent events, and population-level summary measure. RESULTS: Different estimands were defined for case studies representing three types of pharmacological treatments: (1) single-dose treatments using a case study about the effect of influenza vaccination versus no vaccination on mortality risk in an adult population of ≥60 years of age; (2) sustained-treatments using a case study about the effect of dipeptidyl peptidase 4 inhibitor versus glucagon-like peptide-1 agonist on hypoglycemia risk in treatment of uncontrolled diabetes; and (3) as needed treatments using a case study on the effect of nitroglycerin spray as-needed versus no nitroglycerin on syncope risk in treatment of stabile angina pectoris. CONCLUSIONS: The case studies illustrated that a seemingly clear research question can still be open to multiple interpretations. Defining an estimand ensures that the study targets a treatment effect that aligns with the treatment decision the study aims to inform. Estimand definitions further help to inform choices regarding study design and data-analysis and clarify how to interpret study findings.

Birthweight of children with isolated congenital heart disease-A sibling analysis study.

OBJECTIVE: Congenital heart disease (CHD) is associated with decreased birthweight (BW) compared to population-based references. The aim of this study was to compare the BW of isolated CHD cases to their siblings, thus controlling for unknown and unmeasured confounders within the family. METHODS: All isolated CHD cases in the Leiden University Medical Center were included (2002-2019). Generalized estimated equation models were constructed to compare BW z scores of CHD neonates with their siblings. Cases were clustered to minor or severe CHD and stratified according to the aortic flow and oxygenation to the brain. RESULTS: The overall BW z score of siblings was 0.032 (n = 471). The BW z score was significantly lower in CHD cases (n = 291) compared to their siblings (-0.20, p = 0.005). The results were consistent in the subgroup analysis of severe and minor CHD (BW z score difference -0.20 and -0.10), but did not differ significantly (p = 0.63). Stratified analysis regarding flow and oxygenation showed no BW difference between the groups (p = 0.1). CONCLUSION: Isolated CHD cases display a significantly lower BW z score compared to their siblings. As the siblings of these CHD cases show a BW distribution similar to the general population, this suggests that shared environmental and maternal influences between siblings do not explain the difference in BW.

Birthweight and isolated congenital heart defects - A systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Birthweight (BW) is an important prognostic factor in newborns with congenital heart defects (CHD). OBJECTIVES: To give an overview of the literature on BW z-score in children with isolated CHD. SEARCH STRATEGY: A systematic search was performed on isolated CHD and BW in PubMed, Embase, Web of Science, COCHRANE Library and Emcare. SELECTION CRITERIA: Neonates with isolated CHD were included if a BW percentile, BW z-score or % small-or-gestational age (SGA) was reported. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: BW z-score and percentage SGA were pooled with random-effect meta-analysis. Quality and risk of bias were assessed using the modified Newcastle Ottawa Scale. MAIN RESULTS: Twenty-three articles (27 893 cases) were included. BW z-scores were retrieved from 11 articles, resulting in a pooled z-score of -0.20 (95% CI -0.50 to 0.11). The overall pooled prevalence of SGA <10th percentile was 16.0% (95% CI 11.4-20.5; 14 studies). Subgroup analysis of major CHD showed similar results (BW z-score -0.23 and percentage SGA 16.2%). CONCLUSIONS: Overall BW in isolated CHD is within range of normality but impaired, with a 1.6-fold higher risk of SGA, irrespective of the type of CHD (major CHD vs all CHD combined). Our findings underline the association between CHD and BW. The use of BW z-scores provides insight into growth of all fetuses with CHD. TWEETABLE ABSTRACT: Infants with a congenital heart defect (CHD) have a lower birthweight z-score and a higher incidence of small-for-gestational age (<10th percentile). This was encountered both in the major CHD-group as well as in all-CHD combined group analysis. Future research on the association between birthweight and CHD should include all types of CHDs (including mild cardiac defects) and placental-related disease, such as pre-eclampsia. We advocate the use of international standardised fetal growth and birthweight charts in CHD research.

Choosing and changing the analysis scale in non-inferiority trials with a binary outcome.

BACKGROUND: The size of the margin strongly influences the required sample size in non-inferiority and equivalence trials. What is sometimes ignored, however, is that for trials with binary outcomes, the scale of the margin - risk difference, risk ratio or odds ratio - also has a large impact on power and thus on sample size requirement. When considering several scales at the design stage of a trial, these sample size consequences should be taken into account. Sometimes, changing the scale may be needed at a later stage of a trial, for example, when the event proportion in the control arm turns out different from expected. Also after completion of a trial, a switch to another scale is sometimes made, for example, when using a regression model in a secondary analysis or when combining study results in a meta-analysis that requires unifying scales. The exact consequences of such switches are currently unknown. METHODS AND RESULTS: This article first outlines sample size consequences for different choices of analysis scale at the design stage of a trial. We add a new result on sample size requirement comparing the risk difference scale with the risk ratio scale. Then, we study two different approaches to changing the analysis scale after the trial has commenced: (1) mapping the original non-inferiority margin using the event proportion in the control arm that was anticipated at the design stage or (2) mapping the original non-inferiority margin using the observed event proportion in the control arm. We use simulations to illustrate consequences on type I and type II error rates. Methods are illustrated on the INES trial, a non-inferiority trial that compared single birth rates in subfertile couples after different fertility treatments. Our results demonstrate large differences in required sample size when choosing between risk difference, risk ratio and odds ratio scales at the design stage of non-inferiority trials. In some cases, the sample size requirement is twice as large on one scale compared with another. Changing the scale after commencing the trial using anticipated proportions mainly impacts type II error rate, whereas switching using observed proportions is not advised due to not maintaining type I error rate. Differences were more pronounced with larger margins. CONCLUSIONS: Trialists should be aware that the analysis scale can have large impact on type I and type II error rates in non-inferiority trials.

Evaluation of treatment, prognostic factors, and survival in 198 vulvar melanoma patients: Implications for clinical practice.

OBJECTIVE: To identify clinicopathological characteristics, treatment patterns, clinical outcomes and prognostic factors in patients with vulvar melanoma (VM). MATERIALS & METHODS: This retrospective multicentre cohort study included 198 women with VM treated in eight cancer centres in the Netherlands and UK between 1990 and 2017. Clinicopathological features, treatment, recurrence, and survival data were collected. Overall and recurrence-free survival was estimated with the Kaplan-Meier method. Prognostic parameters were identified with multivariable Cox regression analysis. RESULTS: The majority of patients (75.8%) had localized disease at diagnosis. VM was significantly associated with high-risk clinicopathological features, including age, tumour thickness, ulceration, positive resection margins and involved lymph nodes. Overall survival was 48% (95% CI 40-56%) and 31% (95% CI 23-39%) after 2 and 5 years respectively and did not improve in patients diagnosed after 2010 compared to patients diagnosed between 1990 and 2009. Recurrence occurred in 66.7% of patients, of which two-third was non-local. In multivariable analysis, age and tumour size were independent prognostic factors for worse survival. Prognostic factors for recurrence were tumour size and tumour type. Only the minority of patients were treated with immuno- or targeted therapy. CONCLUSION: Our results show that even clinically early-stage VM is an aggressive disease associated with poor clinical outcome due to distant metastases. Further investigation into the genomic landscape and the immune microenvironment in VM may pave the way to novel therapies to improve clinical outcomes in these aggressive tumours. Clinical trials with immunotherapy or targeted therapy in patients with high-risk, advanced or metastatic disease are highly needed.

The association between flow and oxygenation and cortical development in fetuses with congenital heart defects using a brain-age prediction algorithm.

OBJECTIVES: Presumably, changes in fetal circulation contribute to the delay in maturation of the cortex in fetuses with congenital heart defect (CHD). The aim of the current study is to analyze fetal brain development based on hemodynamic differences, using novel brain-age prediction software. METHODS: We have performed detailed neurosonography, including acquiring 3D volumes, prospectively in cases with isolated CHD from 20 weeks onwards. An algorithm that assesses the degree of fetal brain-age automatically was used to compare CHD cases to controls. We stratified CHD cases according to flow and oxygenation profiles by lesion physiology and performed subgroup analyses. RESULTS: A total of 616 ultrasound volumes of 162 CHD cases and 75 controls were analyzed. Significant differences in maturation of the cortex were observed in cases with normal blood flow toward the brain (-3.8 days, 95%CI [-5.5; -2.0], P = <.001) and low (-4.0 days, 95% CI [-6.7; -1.2] P = <.05; hypoplastic left heart syndrome[HLHS]) and mixed (-4.4 days, 95%CI [-6.4; -2.5] p = <.001) oxygen saturation in the ascending aorta (TGA) and in cardiac mixing (eg, Fallot) cases. CONCLUSION: The current study shows significant delay in brain-age in TGA and Fallot cases as compared to control cases. However, the small differences found in this study questions the clinical relevance.

Serial neurosonography in fetuses with congenital heart defects shows mild delays in cortical development.

INTRODUCTION: Neurodevelopmental delay is more common in children born with congenital heart defects (CHD), even with optimal perinatal and peri-operative care. It is hypothesized that fetuses with CHD are prone to neurological impairment in utero due to their cardiac defect, possibly leading to delayed cortical development. METHODS: Cerebral cortical maturation was assessed with advanced neurosonographic examinations every 4 weeks in fetuses with CHD and compared to control fetuses. Five different primary fissures and four areas were scored (ranging 0-5) by blinded examiners using a cortical maturation scheme. RESULTS: Cortical staging was assessed in 574 ultrasound examinations in 85 CHD fetuses and 61 controls. Small differences in grading were seen in Sylvian and cingulate fissures. (Sylvian fissure: -0.12 grade, 95% CI (-0.23; -0.01) p = 0.05, cingulate fissure: -0.24 grade, 95% CI (-0.38; -0.10) p = <0.001. Other cortical areas showed normal maturation as compared to control fetuses. CONCLUSION: Small differences were seen in three of the nine analyzed cortical areas in CHD fetuses, in contrast to previous reports on progressive third-trimester delay. The clinical implications of the small differences however, remain unknown.

Assessment of human fetal cardiac autonomic nervous system development using color tissue Doppler imaging.

OBJECTIVES: Functional development of the fetal cardiac autonomic nervous system (cANS) plays a key role in fetal maturation and can be assessed through fetal heart rate variability (fHRV)-analysis, with each HRV parameter representing different aspects of cANS activity. Current available techniques, however, are unable to assess the fHRV parameters accurately throughout the whole pregnancy. This study aims to test the feasibility of color tissue Doppler imaging (cTDI) as a new ultrasound technique for HRV analysis. Secondly, we explored time trends of fHRV parameters using this technique. METHODS: 18 healthy singleton fetuses were examined sequentially every 8 weeks from 10 weeks GA onwards. From each examination, 3 cTDI recordings of the four-chamber view of 10 seconds were retrieved to determine accurate beat-to-beat intervals. The fHRV parameters SDNN, RMSSD, SDNN/RMSSD, and pNN10, each representing different functional aspects of the cANS, were measured, and time trends during pregnancy were explored using spline functions within a linear mixed-effects model. RESULTS: In total, 77% (95% Cl 66-87%) of examinations were feasible for fHRV analysis from the first trimester onwards, which is a great improvement compared to other techniques. The technique is able to determine different maturation rates of the fHRV parameters, showing that cANS function, presumably parasympathetic activity, establishes around 20 weeks GA and matures rapidly until 30 weeks GA. CONCLUSIONS: This is the first study able to assess cANS function through fHRV analysis from the first trimester onwards. The use of cTDI to determine beat-to-beat intervals seems feasible in just 3 clips of 10 seconds, which holds promise for future clinical use in assessing fetal well-being.

The association between haemorrhage and markers of endothelial insufficiency and inflammation in patients with hypoproliferative thrombocytopenia: a cohort study.

In daily haematological practice, predicting bleeding in thrombocytopenic patients is difficult, and clinicians adhere to transfusion triggers to guide patients through the aplastic phase of chemotherapy. Platelet count is not the only determinant of bleeding and additional mechanisms for impending haemostasis are likely. Beside clot formation, platelets are essential for the maintenance of integrity of vascular beds. We therefore prospectively investigated associations between biomarkers for endothelial damage (urine albumin excretion) and inflammation (C-reactive protein) and bleeding (WHO grading) in 88 patients with 116 on-protocol episodes. We found an increase in grade 2 bleeding with a higher urine albumin/creatinine ratio one day after the measurement [odds ratio (OR) 1·24 for every doubling of the ratio, 95% CI 1·05-1·46, P-value 0·01] and a 29% increase in the odds of grade 2 bleeding for every doubling of serum C-reactive protein (CRP) (95% CI 1·04-1·60, P-value 0·02) after correction for morning platelet count. The 24 h post-transfusion corrected count increment (CCI24 ) showed a significant association with these biomarkers: increasing urine albumin/creatinine ratio and CRP were associated with lower CCI24. We report two inexpensive and easy-to-apply biomarkers that could be useful in designing a prediction model for bleeding risk in thrombocytopenic patients.

Oil-Based or Water-Based Contrast for Hysterosalpingography in Infertile Women.

BACKGROUND: Pregnancy rates among infertile women have been reported to increase after hysterosalpingography, but it is unclear whether the type of contrast medium used (oil-based or water-soluble contrast) influences this potential therapeutic effect. METHODS: We performed a multicenter, randomized trial in 27 hospitals in the Netherlands in which infertile women who were undergoing hysterosalpingography were randomly assigned to undergo this procedure with the use of oil-based or water-based contrast. Subsequently, couples received expectant management or the women underwent intrauterine insemination. The primary outcome was ongoing pregnancy within 6 months after randomization. Outcomes were analyzed according to the intention-to-treat principle. RESULTS: A total of 1119 women were randomly assigned to hysterosalpingography with oil contrast (557 women) or water contrast (562 women). A total of 220 of 554 women in the oil group (39.7%) and 161 of 554 women in the water group (29.1%) had an ongoing pregnancy (rate ratio, 1.37; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.16 to 1.61; P<0.001), and 214 of 552 women in the oil group (38.8%) and 155 of 552 women in the water group (28.1%) had live births (rate ratio, 1.38; 95% CI, 1.17 to 1.64; P<0.001). Rates of adverse events were low and similar in the two groups. CONCLUSIONS: Rates of ongoing pregnancy and live births were higher among women who underwent hysterosalpingography with oil contrast than among women who underwent this procedure with water contrast. (Netherlands Trial Register number, NTR3270 .).

Hemostatic efficacy of pathogen-inactivated vs untreated platelets: a randomized controlled trial.

Pathogen inactivation of platelet concentrates reduces the risk for blood-borne infections. However, its effect on platelet function and hemostatic efficacy of transfusion is unclear. We conducted a randomized noninferiority trial comparing the efficacy of pathogen-inactivated platelets using riboflavin and UV B illumination technology (intervention) compared with standard plasma-stored platelets (control) for the prevention of bleeding in patients with hematologic malignancies and thrombocytopenia. The primary outcome parameter was the proportion of transfusion-treatment periods in which the patient had grade 2 or higher bleeding, as defined by World Health Organization criteria. Between November 2010 and April 2016, 469 unique patients were randomized to 567 transfusion-treatment periods (283 in the control arm, 284 in the intervention arm). There was a 3% absolute difference in grade 2 or higher bleeding in the intention-to-treat analysis: 51% of the transfusion-treatment periods in the control arm and 54% in the intervention arm (95% confidence interval [CI], -6 to 11; P = .012 for noninferiority). However, in the per-protocol analysis, the difference in grade 2 or higher bleeding was 8%: 44% in the control arm and 52% in the intervention arm (95% CI -2 to 18; P = .19 for noninferiority). Transfusion increment parameters were ∼50% lower in the intervention arm. There was no difference in the proportion of patients developing HLA class I alloantibodies. In conclusion, the noninferiority criterion for pathogen-inactivated platelets was met in the intention-to-treat analysis. This finding was not demonstrated in the per-protocol analysis. This trial was registered at The Netherlands National Trial Registry as #NTR2106 and at www.clinicaltrials.gov as #NCT02783313.

How long does the fertility-enhancing effect of hysterosalpingography with oil-based contrast last?

RESEARCH QUESTION: Does the fertility-enhancing effect of tubal flushing during hysterosalpingography (HSG) with oil-based contrast change over time? DESIGN: This was a secondary analysis of the H2Oil (long-term follow-up) study, a multicentre randomized controlled trial evaluating the effectiveness of oil-based and water-based contrast during HSG. The main outcome was ongoing pregnancy. Cox proportional hazards models for time to ongoing pregnancy were fitted over 3 years of follow-up. RESULTS: Data on 1107 couples were available; 550 couples had oil-based contrast and 557 water-based contrast at HSG. Ongoing pregnancy rates after 3 years were 77% and 71%, respectively. Median follow-up was 9-10 months (5th-95th percentile: <1 to 36). The hazard ratio for ongoing pregnancy for oil versus water over 3 years of follow-up was 1.26 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.10-1.45). The scaled Schoenfeld residual plots showed a decrease in hazard ratio that was linear with log-transformed time. After including an interaction with log-transformed time, the hazard ratio immediately after HSG was 1.71 (95% CI 1.27-2.31) and reduced to no effect (hazard ratio of 1) at approximately 2 years. There was no evidence for a change in hazard ratio over time in a subgroup of women who experienced pain during HSG. CONCLUSIONS: The hazard ratio for ongoing pregnancy of oil-based versus water-based contrast was 1.71 immediately after HSG, gradually decreasing and plateauing towards a hazard ratio of 1 (indicating no effect) after approximately 2 years. This supports the hypothesis that oil-based contrast might dislodge debris or mucus plugs from the Fallopian tubes, but this has yet to be definitively proved.

Prediction meets causal inference: the role of treatment in clinical prediction models.

In this paper we study approaches for dealing with treatment when developing a clinical prediction model. Analogous to the estimand framework recently proposed by the European Medicines Agency for clinical trials, we propose a 'predictimand' framework of different questions that may be of interest when predicting risk in relation to treatment started after baseline. We provide a formal definition of the estimands matching these questions, give examples of settings in which each is useful and discuss appropriate estimators including their assumptions. We illustrate the impact of the predictimand choice in a dataset of patients with end-stage kidney disease. We argue that clearly defining the estimand is equally important in prediction research as in causal inference.

The effect of treatment delay on time-to-recovery in the presence of unobserved heterogeneity.

We study the effect of delaying treatment in the presence of (unobserved) heterogeneity. In a homogeneous population and assuming a proportional treatment effect, a treatment delay period will result in notably lower cumulative recovery percentages. We show in theoretical scenarios using frailty models that if the population is heterogeneous, the effect of a delay period is much smaller. This can be explained by the selection process that is induced by the frailty. Patient groups that start treatment later have already undergone more selection. The marginal hazard ratio for the treatment will act differently in such a more homogeneous patient group. We further discuss modeling approaches for estimating the effect of treatment delay in the presence of heterogeneity, and compare their performance in a simulation study. The conventional Cox model that fails to account for heterogeneity overestimates the effect of treatment delay. Including interaction terms between treatment and starting time of treatment or between treatment and follow up time gave no improvement. Estimating a frailty term can improve the estimation, but is sensitive to misspecification of the frailty distribution. Therefore, multiple frailty distributions should be used and the results should be compared using the Akaike Information Criterion. Non-parametric estimation of the cumulative recovery percentages can be considered if the dataset contains sufficient long term follow up for each of the delay strategies. The methods are demonstrated on a motivating application evaluating the effect of delaying the start of treatment with assisted reproductive techniques on time-to-pregnancy in couples with unexplained subfertility.

A comparison of the beta-geometric model with landmarking for dynamic prediction of time to pregnancy.

We conducted a simulation study to compare two methods that have been recently used in clinical literature for the dynamic prediction of time to pregnancy. The first is landmarking, a semi-parametric method where predictions are updated as time progresses using the patient subset still at risk at that time point. The second is the beta-geometric model that updates predictions over time from a parametric model estimated on all data and is specific to applications with a discrete time to event outcome. The beta-geometric model introduces unobserved heterogeneity by modelling the chance of an event per discrete time unit according to a beta distribution. Due to selection of patients with lower chances as time progresses, the predicted probability of an event decreases over time. Both methods were recently used to develop models predicting the chance to conceive naturally. The advantages, disadvantages and accuracy of these two methods are unknown. We simulated time-to-pregnancy data according to different scenarios. We then compared the two methods by the following out-of-sample metrics: bias and root mean squared error in the average prediction, root mean squared error in individual predictions, Brier score and c statistic. We consider different scenarios including data-generating mechanisms for which the models are misspecified. We applied the two methods on a clinical dataset comprising 4999 couples. Finally, we discuss the pros and cons of the two methods based on our results and present recommendations for use of either of the methods in different settings and (effective) sample sizes.

Restabilization treatment after intravenous immunoglobulin withdrawal in chronic inflammatory demyelinating polyneuropathy: Results from the pre-randomization phase of the Polyneuropathy And Treatment with Hizentra study.

In patients with chronic inflammatory demyelinating polyneuropathy (CIDP), intravenous immunoglobulin (IVIG) is recommended to be periodically reduced to assess the need for ongoing therapy. However, little is known about the effectiveness of restabilization with IVIG in patients who worsen after IVIG withdrawal. In the Polyneuropathy And Treatment with Hizentra (PATH) study, the pre-randomization period included sudden stopping of IVIG followed by 12 weeks of observation. Those deteriorating were then restabilized with IVIG. Of 245 subjects who stopped IVIG, 28 did not show signs of clinical deterioration within 12 weeks. Two hundred and seven received IVIG restabilization with an induction dose of 2 g/kg bodyweight (bw) IgPro10 (Privigen, CSL Behring, King of Prussia, Pennsylvania) and maintenance doses of 1 g/kg bw every 3 weeks for up to 13 weeks. Signs of clinical improvement were seen in almost all (n = 188; 91%) subjects. During IVIG restabilization, 35 subjects either did not show CIDP stability (n = 21, analyzed as n = 22 as an additional subject was randomized in error) or withdrew for other reasons (n = 14). Of the 22 subjects who did not achieve clinical stability, follow-up information in 16 subjects after an additional 4 weeks was obtained. Nine subjects were reported to have improved, leaving a maximum of 27 subjects (13%) who either showed no signs of clinical improvement during the restabilization phase and 4 weeks post-study or withdrew for other reasons. In conclusion, sudden IVIG withdrawal was effective in detecting ongoing immunoglobulin G dependency with a small risk for subjects not returning to their baseline 17 weeks after withdrawal.

Efficacy and safety of IVIG in CIDP: Combined data of the PRIMA and PATH studies.

Intravenous immunoglobulin (IVIG) is a potential therapy for chronic inflammatory demyelinating polyneuropathy (CIDP). To investigate the efficacy and safety of the IVIG IgPro10 (Privigen) for treatment of CIDP, results from Privigen Impact on Mobility and Autonomy (PRIMA), a prospective, open-label, single-arm study of IVIG in immunoglobulin (Ig)-naïve or IVIG pre-treated subjects (NCT01184846, n = 28) and Polyneuropathy And Treatment with Hizentra (PATH), a double-blind, randomized study including an open-label, single-arm IVIG phase in IVIG pre-treated subjects (NCT01545076, IVIG restabilization phase n = 207) were analyzed separately and together (n = 235). Efficacy assessments included change in adjusted inflammatory neuropathy cause and treatment (INCAT) score, grip strength and Medical Research Council (MRC) sum score. Adverse drug reactions (ADRs) and ADRs/infusion were recorded. Adjusted INCAT response rate was 60.7% in all PRIMA subjects at Week 25 (76.9% in IVIG pre-treated subjects) and 72.9% in PATH. In the pooled cohort (n = 235), INCAT response rate was 71.5%; median time to INCAT improvement was 4.3 weeks. No clear demographic differences were noticed between early (responding before Week 7, n = 148) and late responders (n = 21). In the pooled cohort, median change from baseline to last observation was -1.0 (interquartile range -2.0; 0.0) point for INCAT score; +8.0 (0.0; 20.0) kPa for maximum grip strength; +3.0 (1.0; 7.0) points for MRC sum score. In the pooled cohort, 271 ADRs were reported in 105 subjects (44.7%), a rate of 0.144 ADRs per infusion. This analysis confirms the efficacy and safety of IgPro10, a recently FDA-approved IVIG for CIDP, in a population of mainly pre-treated subjects with CIDP [Correction added on 14 March 2019 after first online publication: the INCAT response rate has been corrected.].