Cost-effective mitigation of nitrogen pollution from global croplands.

Cropland is a main source of global nitrogen pollution1,2. Mitigating nitrogen pollution from global croplands is a grand challenge because of the nature of non-point-source pollution from millions of farms and the constraints to implementing pollution-reduction measures, such as lack of financial resources and limited nitrogen-management knowledge of farmers3. Here we synthesize 1,521 field observations worldwide and identify 11 key measures that can reduce nitrogen losses from croplands to air and water by 30-70%, while increasing crop yield and nitrogen use efficiency (NUE) by 10-30% and 10-80%, respectively. Overall, adoption of this package of measures on global croplands would allow the production of 17 ± 3 Tg (1012 g) more crop nitrogen (20% increase) with 22 ± 4 Tg less nitrogen fertilizer used (21% reduction) and 26 ± 5 Tg less nitrogen pollution (32% reduction) to the environment for the considered base year of 2015. These changes could gain a global societal benefit of 476 ± 123 billion US dollars (USD) for food supply, human health, ecosystems and climate, with net mitigation costs of only 19 ± 5 billion USD, of which 15 ± 4 billion USD fertilizer saving offsets 44% of the gross mitigation cost. To mitigate nitrogen pollution from croplands in the future, innovative policies such as a nitrogen credit system (NCS) could be implemented to select, incentivize and, where necessary, subsidize the adoption of these measures.

Lignite effects on NH3, N2O, CO2 and CH4 emissions during composting of manure.

Production of compost from cattle manure results in ammonia (NH3) and greenhouse gas emissions, causing the loss of valuable nitrogen (N) and having negative environmental impacts. Lignite addition to cattle pens has been reported to reduce NH3 emissions from manure by approximately 60%. However, the effect of lignite additions during the manure composting process, in terms of gaseous emissions of NH3, nitrous oxide (N2O), carbon dioxide (CO2), and methane (CH4) is not clear. This composting study was conducted at a commercial cattle feedlot in Victoria, Australia. Prior to cattle entering the feedlot, we applied 4.5 kg m-2 of dry lignite to a treatment pen, and no lignite to a control pen. After 90 days of occupancy, the cattle were removed and the accumulated manure from each pen was used to form two separate compost windrows (control and treatment). During composting we collected manure samples regularly and quantified gaseous emissions of NH3, N2O, CO2, and CH4 from both windrows with an inverse-dispersion technique using open-path Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (OP-FTIR). Over the 87-day measurement period, the cumulative gas fluxes of NH3, N2O, CO2, and CH4 were 3.4 (± 0.6, standard error), 0.4 (± 0.1), 932 (± 99), and 1.2 (± 0.3) g kg-1 (initial dry matter (DM)), respectively for the lignite amended windrow, and 7.2 (± 1.3), 0.1 (± 0.03), 579 (± 50) and -0.5 (± 0.1) g kg-1 DM, respectively for the non-lignite windrow. The addition of lignite reduced NH3 emissions by 54% during composting, but increased total greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2.6 times. Total N losses as NH3-N and N2O-N were approximately 11 and 25% of initial N for the lignite and non-lignite windrows, respectively. The effectiveness of retaining N was obvious in the first three weeks after windrow formation. A cost-benefit analysis indicated that the benefit of lignite addition to cattle pens by reduced NH3 emission could justify the trade-off of increased GHG emissions.

Toward a Generic Analytical Framework for Sustainable Nitrogen Management: Application for China.

Managing reactive nitrogen (Nr) to achieve a sustainable balance between production of food, feed and fiber, and environmental protection is a grand challenge in the context of an increasingly affluent society. Here, we propose a novel framework for national nitrogen (N) assessments enabling a more consistent comparison of the uses, losses and impacts of Nr between countries, and improvement of Nr management for sustainable development at national and regional scales. This framework includes four key components: national scale N budgets, validation of N fluxes, cost-benefit analysis and Nr management strategies. We identify four critical factors for Nr management to achieve the sustainable development goals: N use efficiency (NUE), Nr recycling ratio (e.g., ratio of livestock excretion applied to cropland), human dietary patterns and food waste ratio. This framework was partly adopted from the European Nitrogen Assessment and now is successfully applied to China, where it contributed to trigger policy interventions toward improvements for future sustainable use of Nr. We demonstrate how other countries can also benefit from the application our framework, in order to include sustainable Nr management under future challenges of growing population, hence contributing to the achievement of some key sustainable development goals (SDGs).

Losses of Ammonia and Nitrate from Agriculture and Their Effect on Nitrogen Recovery in the European Union and the United States between 1900 and 2050.

Historical trends and levels of nitrogen (N) budgets and emissions to air and water in the European Union and the United States are markedly different. Agro-environmental policy approaches also differ, with emphasis on voluntary or incentive-based schemes in the United States versus a more regulatory approach in the European Union. This paper explores the implications of these differences for attaining long-term policy targets for air and water quality. Nutrient surplus problems were more severe in the European Union than in the United States during the 1970s and 1980s. The EU Nitrates and National Emission Ceilings directives contributed to decreases in fertilizer use, N surplus, and ammonia (NH) emissions, whereas in the United States they stabilized, although NH emissions are still increasing. These differences were analyzed using statistical data for 1900-2005 and the global IMAGE model. IMAGE could reproduce NH emissions and soil N surpluses at different scales (European Union and United States, country and state) and N loads in the Rhine and Mississippi. The regulation-driven changes during the past 25 yr in the European Union have reduced public concerns and have brought agricultural N loads to the aquatic environment closer to US levels. Despite differences in agro-environmental policies and agricultural structure (more N-fixing soybean and more spatially separated feed and livestock production in the United States than in the European Union), current N use efficiency in US and EU crop production is similar. IMAGE projections for the IAASTD-baseline scenario indicate that N loading to the environment in 2050 will be similar to current levels. In the United States, environmental N loads will remain substantially smaller than in the European Union, whereas agricultural production in 2050 in the United States will increase by 30% relative to 2005, as compared with an increase of 8% in the European Union. However, in the United States, even rigorous mitigation with maximum recycling of manure N and a 25% reduction in fertilizer use will not achieve the policy target to halve the N export to the Gulf of Mexico.

Costs and benefits of synthetic nitrogen for global cereal production in 2015 and in 2050 under contrasting scenarios.

Cereals are the most important global staple crop and use more than half of global cropland and synthetic nitrogen (N) fertilizer. While this synthetic N may feed half of the current global population, it has led to a massive increase in reactive N loss to the environment, causing a suite of impacts, offsetting the benefits of N fertilizers for food security and agricultural economy. To address these complex issues, the NBCalCer model was developed to quantify the global effects of N input on crop yields, N budgets and environmental impacts and to assess the associated social benefits and costs. Three Shared Socioeconomic Pathway scenarios (SSPs) were considered with decreasing N agri-environmental ambitions, through contrasting climate and N policy ambitions: sustainability (SSP1H), middle-of-the-road (SSP2M) and fossil-fueled development (SSP5L). In the base year the contribution of synthetic N fertilizer to global cereal production was 44 %. Global modelled grain yield was projected to increase under all scenarios while the use of synthetic N fertilizer decreases under all scenarios except SSP5L. The total N surplus was projected to be reduced up to 20 % under SSP1H but to increase under SSP5L. The Benefit-Cost-Ratio (BCR) was calculated as the ratio between the market benefit of increased grain production by synthetic N and the summed cost of fertilizer purchase and the external cost of the N losses. In base year the BCR was well above one in all regions, but in 2050 under SSP1H and SSP5L decreased to below one in most regions. Given the concerns about food security, environmental quality and its interaction with biodiversity loss, human health and climate change, the new paradigm for global cereal production is producing sufficient food with minimum N pollution. Our results indicate that achieving this goal would require a massive change in global volume and distribution of synthetic N.

Costs and benefits of nitrogen for Europe and implications for mitigation.

Cost-benefit analysis can be used to provide guidance for emerging policy priorities in reducing nitrogen (N) pollution. This paper provides a critical and comprehensive assessment of costs and benefits of the various flows of N on human health, ecosystems and climate stability in order to identify major options for mitigation. The social cost of impacts of N in the EU27 in 2008 was estimated between €75-485 billion per year. A cost share of around 60% is related to emissions to air. The share of total impacts on human health is about 45% and may reflect the higher willingness to pay for human health than for ecosystems or climate stability. Air pollution by nitrogen also generates social benefits for climate by present cooling effects of N containing aerosol and C-sequestration driven by N deposition, amounting to an estimated net benefit of about €5 billion/yr. The economic benefit of N in primary agricultural production ranges between €20-80 billion/yr and is lower than the annual cost of pollution by agricultural N which is in the range of €35-230 billion/yr. Internalizing these environmental costs would lower the optimum annual N-fertilization rate in Northwestern Europe by about 50 kg/ha. Acknowledging the large uncertainties and conceptual issues of our cost-benefit estimates, the results support the priority for further reduction of NH3 and NOx emissions from transport and agriculture beyond commitments recently agreed in revision of the Gothenburg Protocol.

Establishing long-term nitrogen response of global cereals to assess sustainable fertilizer rates.

Insight into the response of cereal yields to nitrogen fertilizer is fundamental to improving nutrient management and policies to sustain economic crop benefits and food sufficiency with minimum nitrogen pollution. Here we propose a new method to assess long-term (LT) regional sustainable nitrogen inputs. The core is a novel scaled response function between normalized yield and total net nitrogen input. The function was derived from 25 LT field trials for wheat, maize and barley in Europe, Asia and North America and is fitted by a second-order polynomial (R2 = 0.82). Using response functions derived from common short-term field trials, with soil nitrogen not in steady state, gives the risks of soil nitrogen depletion or nitrogen pollution. The scaled LT curve implies that the total nitrogen input required to attain the maximum yield is independent of this maximum yield as postulated by Mitscherlich in 1924. This unique curve was incorporated into a simple economic model with valuation of externalities of nitrogen surplus as a function of regional per-capita gross domestic product. The resulting LT sustainable nitrogen inputs range from 150 to 200 kgN ha-1 and this interval narrows with increasing yield potential and decreasing gross domestic product. The adoption of LT response curves and external costs in cereals may have important implications for policies and application ceilings for nitrogen use in regional and global agriculture and ultimately the global distribution of cereal production.

Human-caused increases in reactive nitrogen burial in sediment of global lakes.

Human activities have increased reactive nitrogen (Nr) input to terrestrial ecosystems compared with the pre-industrial era. However, the fate of such Nr input remains uncertain, leading to missing sink of the global nitrogen budget. By synthesizing records of Nr burial in sediments from 303 lakes worldwide, here we show that 9.6 ± 1.1 Tg N year-1 (Tg = 1012 g) accumulated in inland water sediments from 2000 to 2010, accounting for 3%-5% of global Nr input to the land from combined natural and anthropogenic pathways. The recent Nr burial flux doubles pre-industrial estimates, and Nr burial rate significantly increases with global increases in human population and air temperature. Sediment ratios of C:N decrease after 1950 while N:P ratios increase over time due to increasingly elevated Nr burial and other related processes in lakes. These findings imply that Nr burial in lakes is overlooked as an important global sink of Nr input to terrestrial ecosystems.

Crop production and nitrogen use in European cropland and grassland 1961-2019.

This paper presents EuropeAgriDB v1.0, a dataset of crop production and nitrogen (N) flows in European cropland 1961-2019. The dataset covers 26 present-day countries, detailing the cropland N harvests in 17 crop categories as well as cropland N inputs in synthetic fertilizers, manure, symbiotic fixation, and atmospheric deposition. The study builds on established methods but goes beyond previous research by combining data from FAOSTAT, Eurostat, and a range of national data sources. The result is a detailed, complete, and consistent dataset, intended as a basis for further analyses of past and present agricultural production patterns, as well as construction of scenarios for the future.

More efficient phosphorus use can avoid cropland expansion.

Global projections indicate that approximately 500 Mha of new arable land will be required to meet crop demand by 2050. Applying a dynamic phosphorus (P) pool simulator under different socioeconomic scenarios, we find that cropland expansion can be avoided with less than 7% additional cumulative P fertilizer over 2006-2050 when comparing with cropland expansion scenarios, mostly targeted at nutrient-depleted soils of sub-Saharan Africa. Additional P fertilizer would replenish P withdrawn from crop production, thereby allowing higher productivity levels. We also show that further agronomic improvements such as those that allow for better (legacy) P use in soils could reduce both P outflows to freshwater and coastal ecosystems and the overall demand for P fertilizer.

The Warming Climate Aggravates Atmospheric Nitrogen Pollution in Australia.

Australia is a warm country with well-developed agriculture and a highly urbanized population. How these specific features impact the nitrogen cycle, emissions, and consequently affect environmental and human health is not well understood. Here, we find that the ratio of reactive nitrogen (N r ) losses to air over losses to water in Australia is 1.6 as compared to values less than 1.1 in the USA, the European Union, and China. Australian N r emissions to air increased by more than 70% between 1961 and 2013, from 1.2 Tg N yr-1 to 2.1 Tg N yr-1. Previous emissions were substantially underestimated mainly due to neglecting the warming climate. The estimated health cost from atmospheric N r emissions in Australia is 4.6 billion US dollars per year. Emissions of N r to the environment are closely correlated with economic growth, and reduction of N r losses to air is a priority for sustainable development in Australia.

Abating ammonia is more cost-effective than nitrogen oxides for mitigating PM2.5 air pollution.

Fine particulate matter (PM2.5, particles with a mass median aerodynamic diameter of less than 2.5 micrometers) in the atmosphere is associated with severe negative impacts on human health, and the gases sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxides, and ammonia are the main PM2.5 precursors. However, their contribution to global health impacts has not yet been analyzed. Here, we show that nitrogen accounted for 39% of global PM2.5 exposure in 2013, increasing from 30% in 1990 with rising reactive nitrogen emissions and successful controls on sulfur dioxide. Nitrogen emissions to air caused an estimated 23.3 million years of life lost in 2013, corresponding to an annual welfare loss of 420 billion United States dollars for premature death. The marginal abatement cost of ammonia emission is only 10% that of nitrogen oxides emission globally, highlighting the priority for ammonia reduction.

Estimation of incidence and social cost of colon cancer due to nitrate in drinking water in the EU: a tentative cost-benefit assessment.

BACKGROUND: Presently, health costs associated with nitrate in drinking water are uncertain and not quantified. This limits proper evaluation of current policies and measures for solving or preventing nitrate pollution of drinking water resources. The cost for society associated with nitrate is also relevant for integrated assessment of EU nitrogen policies taking a perspective of welfare optimization. The overarching question is at which nitrogen mitigation level the social cost of measures, including their consequence for availability of food and energy, matches the social benefit of these measures for human health and biodiversity. METHODS: Epidemiological studies suggest colon cancer to be possibly associated with nitrate in drinking water. In this study risk increase for colon cancer is based on a case-control study for Iowa, which is extrapolated to assess the social cost for 11 EU member states by using data on cancer incidence, nitrogen leaching and drinking water supply in the EU. Health costs are provisionally compared with nitrate mitigation costs and social benefits of fertilizer use. RESULTS: For above median meat consumption the risk of colon cancer doubles when exposed to drinking water exceeding 25 mg/L of nitrate (NO3) for more than ten years. We estimate the associated increase of incidence of colon cancer from nitrate contamination of groundwater based drinking water in EU11 at 3%. This corresponds to a population-averaged health loss of 2.9 euro per capita or 0.7 euro per kg of nitrate-N leaching from fertilizer. CONCLUSIONS: Our cost estimates indicate that current measures to prevent exceedance of 50 mg/L NO3 are probably beneficial for society and that a stricter nitrate limit and additional measures may be justified. The present assessment of social cost is uncertain because it considers only one type of cancer, it is based on one epidemiological study in Iowa, and involves various assumptions regarding exposure. Our results highlight the need for improved epidemiological studies.

Societal benefits of halving agricultural ammonia emissions in China far exceed the abatement costs.

Mitigating agricultural ammonia (NH3) emissions in China is urgently needed to avoid further damage to human and ecosystem health. Effective and feasible mitigation strategies hinge on integrated knowledge of the mitigation potential of NH3 emissions and the associated economic costs and societal benefits. Here we present a comprehensive analysis of marginal abatement costs and societal benefits for NH3 mitigation in China. The technical mitigation potential of agricultural NH3 emissions is 38-67% (4.0-7.1 Tg N) with implementation costs estimated at US$ 6-11 billion. These costs are much lower than estimates of the overall societal benefits at US$ 18-42 billion. Avoiding unnecessary fertilizer use and protein-rich animal feed could provide 30% of this mitigation potential without additional abatement costs or decreases in agricultural productivity. Optimizing human diets with less animal-derived products offers further potential for NH3 reduction of 12% by 2050.

Future global pig production systems according to the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways.

Global pork production has increased fourfold over the last 50 years and is expected to continue growing during the next three decades. This may have considerable implications for feed use, land requirements, and nitrogen emissions. To analyze the development of the pig production sector at the scale of world regions, we developed the IMAGE-Pig model to describe changes in feed demand, feed conversion ratios (FCRs), nitrogen use efficiency (NUE) and nitrogen excretion for backyard, intermediate and intensive systems during the past few decades as a basis to explore future scenarios. For each region and production system, total production, productive characteristics and dietary compositions were defined for the 1970-2005 period. The results show that due to the growing pork production total feed demand has increased by a factor of two (from 229 to 471Tg DM). This is despite the improvement of FCRs during the 1970-2005 period, which has reduced the feed use per kg of product. The increase of nitrogen use efficiency was slower than the improvement of FCRs due to increasing protein content in the feed rations. As a result, total N excretion increased by more than a factor of two in the 1970-2005 period (from 4.6 to 11.1 Tg N/year). For the period up to 2050, the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) provide information on levels of human consumption, technical development and environmental awareness. The sustainability of pig production systems for the coming decades will be based not only on the expected efficiency improvements at the level of animal breeds, but also on four additional pillars: (i) use of alternative feed sources not competing with human food, (ii) reduction of the crude protein content in rations, (iii) the proper use of slurries as fertilizers through coupling of crop and livestock production and (iv) moderation of the human pork consumption.

When does nitrate become a risk for humans?

Is nitrate harmful to humans? Are the current limits for nitrate concentration in drinking water justified by science? There is substantial disagreement among scientists over the interpretation of evidence on the issue. There are two main health issues: the linkage between nitrate and (i) infant methaemoglobinaemia, also known as blue baby syndrome, and (ii) cancers of the digestive tract. The evidence for nitrate as a cause of these serious diseases remains controversial. On one hand there is evidence that shows there is no clear association between nitrate in drinking water and the two main health issues with which it has been linked, and there is even evidence emerging of a possible benefit of nitrate in cardiovascular health. There is also evidence of nitrate intake giving protection against infections such as gastroenteritis. Some scientists suggest that there is sufficient evidence for increasing the permitted concentration of nitrate in drinking water without increasing risks to human health. However, subgroups within a population may be more susceptible than others to the adverse health effects of nitrate. Moreover, individuals with increased rates of endogenous formation of carcinogenic N-nitroso compounds are likely to be susceptible to the development of cancers in the digestive system. Given the lack of consensus, there is an urgent need for a comprehensive, independent study to determine whether the current nitrate limit for drinking water is scientifically justified or whether it could safely be raised.

Non-linear increase of respiratory diseases and their costs under severe air pollution.

China is experiencing severe and persistent air pollution, with concentrations of fine particulate matters (PM2.5) reaching unprecedentedly high levels in many cities. Quantifying the detrimental effects on health and their costs derived from high PM2.5 levels is crucial because of the unsolved challenges to mitigate air pollution in the following decades. Using the daily monitoring data on PM2.5 concentrations and clinic visits, we found a non-linear increase of respiratory diseases, but not for other diseases (e.g., digestive diseases) under severe air pollution. We found an increase of respiratory diseases by 1% for each 10 µg m-3 increase in PM2.5 when the annual average daily PM2.5 concentration was less than 50 µg m-3; while this ratio was doubled (around 2%) with the daily PM2.5 concentration larger than 50 µg m-3. Under severe air pollution (PM2.5 concentration >150 µg m-3), the respiratory diseases increased by over 50% compared to that in clean days. Children are more sensitive to the severe air pollution. The increase of clinic visits, especially for adults, was observed mainly in bigger (>500 beds) hospitals. Re-allocating medical resources (e.g., doctors) from big hospitals to community hospitals can benefit the respiratory patients due to air pollution. The total medical cost of clinic visits of respiratory diseases derived from PM2.5 pollution was estimated at 17.2-57.0 billion Yuan in 2014 in China, accounting for 0.5-1.6% of national total health expenditure. Because these medical costs only represent a small part of total health cost derived from air pollution, the reduction of associated health costs would be an important co-benefit of implementation of air pollution preventive strategies.