Higher need for polycystic liver disease therapy in female patients: Sex-specific association between liver volume and need for therapy.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Prognostic tools or biomarkers are urgently needed in polycystic liver disease (PLD) to monitor disease progression and evaluate treatment outcomes. Total liver volume (TLV) is currently used to assess cross-sectional disease severity, and female patients typically have larger livers than males. Therefore, this study explores the sex-specific association between TLV and volume-reducing therapy (VRT). APPROACH AND RESULTS: In this prospective cohort study, we included patients with PLD from European treatment centers. We explored sex-specific differences in the association between baseline TLV and initiation of volume-reducing therapy and determined the cumulative incidence rates of volume-reducing therapy in our cohort.We included 358 patients, of whom 157 (43.9%) received treatment. Treated patients had a higher baseline TLV (median TLV 2.16 vs. 4.34 liter, p < 0.001), were more frequently female (69.7% vs. 89.8%, p < 0.001), and had a higher risk of liver events (HR 4.381, p < 0.001). The cumulative volume-reducing therapy rate at 1 year of follow-up was 21.0% for females compared to 9.1% for males. Baseline TLV was associated with volume-reducing therapy, and there was an interaction with sex (HR females 1.202, p < 0.001; HR males 1.790, p < 0.001; at 1.5 l). CONCLUSION: Baseline TLV is strongly associated with volume-reducing therapy initiation at follow-up in patients with PLD, with sex-specific differences in this association. Disease staging systems should use TLV to predict the need for future volume-reducing therapy in PLD separately for males and females.

Incidence and predictors of hepatocellular carcinoma in patients with autoimmune hepatitis.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Autoimmune hepatitis (AIH) is a rare chronic liver disease of unknown aetiology; the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) remains unclear and risk factors are not well-defined. We aimed to investigate the risk of HCC across a multicentre AIH cohort and to identify predictive factors. METHODS: We performed a retrospective, observational, multicentric study of patients included in the International Autoimmune Hepatitis Group Retrospective Registry. The assessed clinical outcomes were HCC development, liver transplantation, and death. Fine and Gray regression analysis stratified by centre was applied to determine the effects of individual covariates; the cumulative incidence of HCC was estimated using the competing risk method with death as a competing risk. RESULTS: A total of 1,428 patients diagnosed with AIH from 1980 to 2020 from 22 eligible centres across Europe and Canada were included, with a median follow-up of 11.1 years (interquartile range 5.2-15.9). Two hundred and ninety-three (20.5%) patients had cirrhosis at diagnosis. During follow-up, 24 patients developed HCC (1.7%), an incidence rate of 1.44 cases/1,000 patient-years; the cumulative incidence of HCC increased over time (0.6% at 5 years, 0.9% at 10 years, 2.7% at 20 years, and 6.6% at 30 years of follow-up). Patients who developed cirrhosis during follow-up had a significantly higher incidence of HCC. The cumulative incidence of HCC was 2.6%, 4.6%, 5.6% and 6.6% at 5, 10, 15, and 20 years after the development of cirrhosis, respectively. Obesity (hazard ratio [HR] 2.94, p = 0.04), cirrhosis (HR 3.17, p = 0.01), and AIH/PSC variant syndrome (HR 5.18, p = 0.007) at baseline were independent risk factors for HCC development. CONCLUSIONS: HCC incidence in AIH is low even after cirrhosis development and is associated with risk factors including obesity, cirrhosis, and AIH/PSC variant syndrome. IMPACT AND IMPLICATIONS: The risk of developing hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in individuals with autoimmune hepatitis (AIH) seems to be lower than for other aetiologies of chronic liver disease. Yet, solid data for this specific patient group remain elusive, given that most of the existing evidence comes from small, single-centre studies. In our study, we found that HCC incidence in patients with AIH is low even after the onset of cirrhosis. Additionally, factors such as advanced age, obesity, cirrhosis, alcohol consumption, and the presence of the AIH/PSC variant syndrome at the time of AIH diagnosis are linked to a higher risk of HCC. Based on these findings, there seems to be merit in adopting a specialized HCC monitoring programme for patients with AIH based on their individual risk factors.

An open-label randomised-controlled trial of azathioprine vs. mycophenolate mofetil for the induction of remission in treatment-naive autoimmune hepatitis.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Patients with autoimmune hepatitis (AIH) almost invariably require lifelong immunosuppressive treatment. There is genuine concern about the efficacy and tolerability of the current standard combination therapy of prednisolone and azathioprine. Mycophenolate mofetil (MMF) has emerged as an alternative option. The aim of this study was to compare MMF to azathioprine as induction therapy for AIH. METHODS: In this 24-week, prospective, randomised, open-label, multicentre superiority trial, 70 patients with treatment-naive AIH received either MMF or azathioprine, both in combination with prednisolone. The primary endpoint was biochemical remission defined as normalisation of serum levels of alanine aminotransferase and IgG after 24 weeks of treatment. Secondary endpoints included safety and tolerability. RESULTS: Seventy patients (mean 57.9 years [SD 14.0]; 72.9% female) were randomly assigned to the MMF plus prednisolone (n = 39) or azathioprine plus prednisolone (n = 31) group. The primary endpoint was met in 56.4% and 29.0% of patients assigned to the MMF group and the azathioprine group, respectively (difference, 27.4 percentage points; 95% CI 4.0 to 46.7; p = 0.022). The MMF group exhibited higher complete biochemical response rates at 6 months (72.2% vs. 32.3%; p = 0.004). No serious adverse events occurred in patients who received MMF (0%) but serious adverse events were reported in four patients who received azathioprine (12.9%) (p = 0.034). Two patients in the MMF group (5.1%) and eight patients in the azathioprine group (25.8%) discontinued treatment owing to adverse events or serious adverse events (p = 0.018). CONCLUSIONS: In patients with treatment-naive AIH, MMF with prednisolone led to a significantly higher rate of biochemical remission at 24 weeks compared to azathioprine combined with prednisolone. Azathioprine use was associated with more (serious) adverse events leading to cessation of treatment, suggesting superior tolerability of MMF. IMPACT AND IMPLICATIONS: This randomised-controlled trial directly compares azathioprine and mycophenolate mofetil, both in combination with prednisolone, for the induction of biochemical remission in treatment-naive patients with autoimmune hepatitis. Achieving complete remission is desirable to prevent disease progression. Patients assigned to the mycophenolate mofetil group reached biochemical remission more often and experienced fewer adverse events. The findings in this trial may contribute to the re-evaluation of international guidelines for the standard of care in treatment-naive patients with autoimmune hepatitis. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: #NCT02900443.

Prognostic scores for ursodeoxycholic acid-treated patients predict graft loss and mortality in recurrent primary biliary cholangitis after liver transplantation.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Recurrent primary biliary cholangitis (rPBC) develops in approximately 30% of patients and negatively impacts graft and overall patient survival after liver transplantation (LT). There is a lack of data regarding the response rate to ursodeoxycholic acid (UDCA) in rPBC. We evaluated a large, international, multi-center cohort to assess the performance of PBC scores in predicting the risk of graft and overall survival after LT in patients with rPBC. METHODS: A total of 332 patients with rPBC after LT were evaluated from 28 centers across Europe, North and South America. The median age at the time of rPBC was 58.0 years [IQR 53.2-62.6], and 298 patients (90%) were female. The biochemical response was measured with serum levels of alkaline phosphatase (ALP) and bilirubin, and Paris-2, GLOBE and UK-PBC scores at 1 year after UDCA initiation. RESULTS: During a median follow-up of 8.7 years [IQR 4.3-12.9] after rPBC diagnosis, 52 patients (16%) had graft loss and 103 (31%) died. After 1 year of UDCA initiation the histological stage at rPBC (hazard ratio [HR] 3.97, 95% CI 1.36-11.55, p = 0.01), use of prednisone (HR 3.18, 95% CI 1.04-9.73, p = 0.04), ALP xULN (HR 1.59, 95% CI 1.26-2.01, p <0.001), Paris-2 criteria (HR 4.14, 95% CI 1.57-10.92, p = 0.004), GLOBE score (HR 2.82, 95% CI 1.71-4.66, p <0.001), and the UK-PBC score (HR 1.06, 95% CI 1.03-1.09, p <0.001) were associated with graft survival in the multivariate analysis. Similar results were observed for overall survival. CONCLUSION: Patients with rPBC and disease activity, as indicated by standard PBC risk scores, have impaired outcomes, supporting efforts to treat recurrent disease in similar ways to pre-transplant PBC. IMPACT AND IMPLICATIONS: One in three people who undergo liver transplantation for primary biliary cholangitis develop recurrent disease in their new liver. Patients with recurrent primary biliary cholangitis and incomplete response to ursodeoxycholic acid, according to conventional prognostic scores, have worse clinical outcomes, with higher risk of graft loss and mortality in similar ways to the disease before liver transplantation. Our results supportsupport efforts to treat recurrent disease in similar ways to pre-transplant primary biliary cholangitis.

Evaluation of ear, nose, and throat-screening in liver transplantation candidates: A retrospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Patients with end-stage liver disease can be treated with a liver transplantation (LT). Before listing, candidates are subjected to a screening procedure according to the EASL Clinical Practice Guidelines for LT. In our hospital, this includes an ear, nose, and throat (ENT) examination, directed towards the identification of (asymptomatic) infections and head and neck malignancies. METHODS: We retrospectively reviewed all ENT screening examinations in LT candidates from 2007 to 2022. The screening consisted of a visit to the ENT outpatient clinic combined with sinus radiography. RESULTS: ENT screening was performed in 1099 patients. Sixty-one cases were identified, either diagnosed with an infection (n = 58, almost exclusively sinusitis) or a neoplasm (n = 3, of which two malignancies). With binary logistic regression, we could not identify significant risk factors for diagnosing sinusitis. 711 patients underwent LT. After LT, two patients developed a novel malignancy of the head and neck area, while 14 patients were diagnosed with sinusitis, two of the latter already showed opacification on sinus radiography during screening. Despite immunosuppressive drugs, no complicated sinusitis was observed. CONCLUSION: Sinusitis or a neoplasm was diagnosed in almost 6% in a large cohort of LT candidates. Although almost a third of sinusitis patients were not treated accordingly, we did not observe any complicated sinusitis after LT. A more conservative approach to sinusitis may therefore be justified in LT candidates, especially in asymptomatic cases. At our institution, we aim to refer only those patients with specific ENT complaints .

Association Between the Presence of Metabolic Comorbidities and Liver-Related Events in Patients With Chronic Hepatitis B.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB) are at increased risk of hepatocellular carcinoma and (liver-related) mortality. In addition to hepatitis B-related factors, metabolic comorbidities may contribute to the progression of fibrosis. Therefore, we studied the association between metabolic comorbidities and adverse clinical outcomes in patients with CHB. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective cohort study of CHB patients attending the Erasmus MC University Medical Center (Rotterdam, The Netherlands) and CHB patients who underwent liver biopsy at the Toronto General Hospital (Toronto, Canada). The presence of metabolic comorbidities (ie, overweight, diabetes mellitus, hypertension, and dyslipidemia) was assessed based on chart review. The primary end point was liver-related events, defined as the first composite of hepatocellular carcinoma, liver transplantation, or liver-related mortality. RESULTS: We analyzed 1850 patients, of whom 926 (50.1%) were overweight, 161 (8.7%) had hypertension, 116 (6.3%) had dyslipidemia, and 82 (4.4%) had diabetes. During a median follow-up period of 7.3 years (interquartile range, 2.9-11.5 y), a total of 111 first events were recorded. Hypertension (hazard ratio [HR], 8.3; 95% CI, 5.5-12.7), diabetes (HR, 5.4; 95% CI, 3.2-9.1), dyslipidemia (HR, 2.8; 95% CI, 1.6-4.8), and overweight (HR, 1.7; 95% CI, 1.1-2.5) were associated with an increased risk for liver-related events. The presence of multiple comorbidities further increased the risk. Findings were consistent for patients with and without cirrhosis, among noncirrhotic hepatitis B e antigen-negative patients with hepatitis B virus DNA less than 2000 IU/mL and in multivariable analysis adjusting for age, sex, ethnicity, hepatitis B e antigen status, hepatitis B virus DNA, use of antiviral therapy, and the presence of cirrhosis. CONCLUSIONS: Metabolic comorbidities in CHB patients are associated with an increased risk for liver-related events, with the highest risk observed in patients with multiple comorbidities. Findings were consistent in various clinically relevant subgroups, underscoring the need for thorough metabolic assessment in patients with CHB.

Greater Transplant-Free Survival in Patients Receiving Obeticholic Acid for Primary Biliary Cholangitis in a Clinical Trial Setting Compared to Real-World External Controls.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: The Primary Biliary Cholangitis (PBC) Obeticholic Acid (OCA) International Study of Efficacy (POISE) randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial demonstrated that OCA reduced biomarkers associated with adverse clinical outcomes (ie, alkaline phosphatase, bilirubin, aspartate aminotransferase, and alanine aminotransferase) in patients with PBC. The objective of this study was to evaluate time to first occurrence of liver transplantation or death in patients with OCA in the POISE trial and open-label extension vs comparable non-OCA-treated external controls. METHODS: Propensity scores were generated for external control patients meeting POISE eligibility criteria from 2 registry studies (Global PBC and UK-PBC) using an index date selected randomly between the first and last date (inclusive) on which eligibility criteria were met. Cox proportional hazards models weighted by inverse probability of treatment assessed time to death or liver transplantation. Additional analyses (Global PBC only) added hepatic decompensation to the composite end point and assessed efficacy in patients with or without cirrhosis. RESULTS: During the 6-year follow-up, there were 5 deaths or liver transplantations in 209 subjects in the POISE cohort (2.4%), 135 of 1381 patients in the Global PBC control (10.0%), and 281 of 2135 patients in the UK-PBC control (13.2%). The hazard ratios (HRs) for the primary outcome were 0.29 (95% CI, 0.10-0.83) for POISE vs Global PBC and 0.30 (95% CI, 0.12-0.75) for POISE vs UK-PBC. In the Global PBC study, HR was 0.20 (95% CI, 0.03-1.22) for patients with cirrhosis and 0.31 (95% CI, 0.09-1.04) for those without cirrhosis; HR was 0.42 (95% CI, 0.21-0.85) including hepatic decompensation. CONCLUSIONS: Patients treated with OCA in a trial setting had significantly greater transplant-free survival than comparable external control patients.

Ursodeoxycholic Acid Treatment-Induced GLOBE Score Changes Are Associated With Liver Transplantation-Free Survival in Patients With Primary Biliary Cholangitis.

INTRODUCTION: Treatment of primary biliary cholangitis (PBC) can improve the GLOBE score. We aimed to assess the association between changes in the GLOBE score (ΔGLOBE) and liver transplantation (LT)-free survival in patients with PBC who were treated with ursodeoxycholic acid (UDCA). METHODS: Among UDCA-treated patients within the Global PBC cohort, the association between ΔGLOBE (ΔGLOBE 0-1 : during the first year of UDCA, ΔGLOBE 1-2 : during the second year) and the risk of LT or death was assessed through Cox regression analyses. RESULTS: Overall, 3,775 UDCA-treated patients were included; 3,424 (90.7%) were female, the median age was 54.0 (interquartile range [IQR] 45.9-62.4) years, and the median baseline GLOBE score was 0.25 (IQR -0.47 to 0.96). During a median follow-up of 7.2 (IQR 3.7-11.5) years, 730 patients reached the combined end point of LT or death. The median ΔGLOBE 0-1 was -0.27 (IQR -0.56 to 0.02). Cox regression analyses, adjusted for pretreatment GLOBE score and ΔGLOBE 0-12 , showed that ΔGLOBE was associated with LT or death (adjusted hazard ratio 2.28, 95% confidence interval 1.81-2.87, P < 0.001). The interaction between baseline GLOBE score and ΔGLOBE 0-1 was not statistically significant ( P = 0.296). The ΔGLOBE 1-2 was associated with LT or death (adjusted hazard ratio 2.19, 95% confidence interval 1.67-2.86, P < 0.001), independently from the baseline GLOBE score and the change in GLOBE score during the first year of UDCA. DISCUSSION: UDCA-induced changes in the GLOBE score were significantly associated with LT-free survival in patients with PBC. While the relative risk reduction of LT or death was stable, the absolute risk reduction was heavily dependent on the baseline prognosis of the patient.

Disease burden in primary sclerosing cholangitis in the Netherlands: A long-term follow-up study.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC) is a progressive, cholestatic liver disease which greatly impacts the lives of individuals. Burden of disease due to shortened life expectancy and impaired quality of life is ill-described. The aim of this study was to assess long-term disease burden in a large population-based registry with regard to survival, clinical course, quality adjusted life years (QALYs), medical consumption and work productivity loss. METHODS: All PSC patients living in a geographically defined area covering ~50% of the Netherlands were included, together with patients from the three liver transplant centres. Survival was estimated by competing risk analysis. Proportional shortfall of QALYs during disease course was measured relative to a matched reference cohort using validated questionnaires. Work productivity loss and medical consumption were evaluated over time. RESULTS: A total of 1208 patients were included with a median follow-up of 11.2 year. Median liver transplant-free survival was 21.0 years. Proportional shortfall of QALYs increased to 48% >25 years after diagnosis. Patients had on average 12.4 hospital contact days among which 3.17 admission days per year, annual medical costs were €12 169 and mean work productivity loss was 25%. CONCLUSIONS: Our data quantify for the first time disease burden in terms of QALYs lost, clinical events, medical consumption, costs as well as work productivity loss, and show that all these are substantial and increase over time.

Importance of complete response for outcomes of pregnancy in patients with autoimmune hepatitis.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: While some articles describe outcome of pregnancy in autoimmune hepatitis (AIH), there are less data evaluating influence of AIH control on maternal and perinatal outcomes. This study analysed outcomes of pregnancy and related possible risk factors in AIH. METHOD: A retrospective multicentre cohort study on pregnancy in AIH was performed in 11 hospitals in the Netherlands. Maternal and neonatal outcomes were collected from records and completed by interview. Risk factors-including incomplete response, relapse and cirrhosis-for adverse outcomes were identified using logistic regression analysis. RESULTS: Ninety-seven pregnancies in 50 women resulted in 70 deliveries (72%) with a live birth rate of 98.5%. AIH relapse occurred in 6% during pregnancy, and in 27% of post-partum episodes. Absence of complete biochemical response at conception was identified as risk factor for the occurrence of gestational and post-partum relapses. Relapse of AIH in the year before conception was a risk factor for the occurrence of both gestational relapses and post-partum relapses. No complete biochemical response increased the risk for hypertensive disorders during pregnancy and intrahepatic cholestasis of pregnancy (ICP). Cirrhosis was found to be a risk factor for miscarriages, but not for other outcomes. CONCLUSION: Pregnancy in AIH is related to an increased incidence of maternal and fetal/neonatal complications; in most cases, outcome is good. Incomplete biochemical response at conception or relapse in the year before conception are risk factors for gestational and post-partum relapses, for hypertensive disorders and for ICP. Cirrhosis was a risk factor for miscarriages.

Optimizing therapy in primary biliary cholangitis: Alkaline phosphatase at six months identifies one-year non-responders and predicts survival.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Patients with primary biliary cholangitis (PBC) and insufficient response to ursodeoxycholic acid (UDCA), currently assessed after 1 year, are candidates for second-line therapy. The aims of this study are to assess biochemical response pattern and determine the utility of alkaline phosphatase (ALP) at six months as a predictor of insufficient response. METHODS: UDCA-treated patients in the GLOBAL PBC database with available liver biochemistries at one year were included. POISE criteria were used to assess response to treatment, defined as ALP <1.67 × upper limit of normal (ULN) and normal total bilirubin at one year. Various thresholds of ALP at six months were evaluated to predict insufficient response based on negative predictive value (NPV) and that with nearest to 90% NPV was selected. RESULTS: For the study, 1362 patients were included, 1232 (90.5%) female, mean age of 54 years. The POISE criteria were met by 56.4% (n = 768) of patients at one year. The median ALP (IQR) of those who met POISE criteria compared to those who did not was 1.05 × ULN (0.82-1.33) vs. 2.37 × ULN (1.72-3.69) at six months (p < .001). Of 235 patients with serum ALP >1.9 × ULN at six months, 89% did not achieve POISE criteria (NPV) after one year of UDCA. Of those with insufficient response by POISE criteria at one year, 210 (67%) had an ALP >1.9 × ULN at six months and thus would have been identified early. CONCLUSIONS: We can identify patients for second-line therapy at six months using an ALP threshold of 1.9 × ULN, given that approximately 90% of these patients are non-responders according to POISE criteria.

The Yield of Routine Post-Operative Doppler Ultrasound to Detect Early Post-Liver Transplantation Vascular Complications.

Early detection of liver transplantation (LT) vascular complications enables timely management. Our aim was to assess if routine Doppler ultrasound (rDUS) improves the detection of hepatic artery thrombosis (HAT), portal vein thrombosis (PVT) and hepatic venous outflow obstruction (HVOO). We retrospectively analysed timing and outcomes, number needed to diagnose one complication (NND) and positive predictive value (PPV) of rDUS on post-operative day (POD) 0,1 and 7 in 708 adult patients who underwent primary LT between 2010-2022. We showed that HAT developed in 7.1%, PVT in 8.2% and HVOO in 3.1% of patients. Most early complications were diagnosed on POD 0 (26.9%), 1 (17.3%) and 5 (17.3%). rDUS correctly detected 21 out of 26 vascular events during the protocol days. PPV of rDUS was 53.8%, detection rate 1.1% and NND was 90.5. Median time to diagnosis was 4 days for HAT and 47 days for PVT and 21 days for HVOO. After intervention, liver grafts were preserved in 57.1%. In conclusion, rDUS protocol helps to detect first week's vascular events, but with low PPV and a high number of ultrasounds needed.

Quality of life in Dutch patients with primary biliary cholangitis: Discrepancies between patients' perspectives and objective disease parameters.

AIM: This study aims to assess the health-related quality of life (HRQoL) in a Dutch population of patients with primary biliary cholangitis (PBC) in relation to the prognosis and need for second line-therapy, based on both objective disease parameters and patients' perspectives. METHODS: In this cross-sectional multicenter study, HRQoL was assessed by using the Dutch PBC-40 according to objective clinical parameters and patients' perspectives on treatment and prognosis. RESULTS: In total, 178/269 (66%) patients responded; mean age 61.2 (SD 9.9) years and 165 (92.7%) women. The PBC-40 domain scores did not differ according to the GLOBE score response (p > 0.05 for all) or according to the POISE criteria (p > 0.05), except for the domain itch (p = 0.031). Patients who considered their survival to be impaired scored higher on all domains as compared to those expecting a normal prognosis (p < 0.05). Similarly, PBC-40 domain scores were higher among patients who considered that they were in need of additional therapy compared to those who did not (p < 0.05 for all, except for domain itch [p = 0.056]). However, 45/62 (72.6%) patients with a self-expected impaired prognosis had a GLOBE score indicative of a normal prognosis. Twenty-five of the 40 (62.5%) patients who believed they needed additional therapy were below POISE criteria. CONCLUSION: The HRQoL of patients with PBC was impaired in terms of nonfavorable disease status according to the expectations of patients, but not according to objective disease parameters. Substantial discrepancies between patients' perspectives and objective parameters were observed, which highlights the need for better patient guidance among patient with PBC.

Substantial impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the reported number of diagnosed chronic hepatitis C virus infections in the Netherlands, 2019-2021.

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic has widespread consequences for health facilities, social contacts, and health-seeking behaviour, affecting the incidence, diagnosis and reporting of other infectious diseases. We examined trends in reported chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infections and associated transmission routes in the Netherlands to identify the potential impact of COVID-19 on access to healthcare (testing) services. METHODS: We analysed notification data of patients with chronic HCV reported to the National Notifiable Disease Surveillance System from January 2019 until December 2021 in the Netherlands. Rates of newly reported chronic cases per 100,000 population with 95% confidence intervals (CI) were calculated, and we compared proportional changes in transmission routes for chronic HCV between 2019, 2020 and 2021. RESULTS: During the study period, a total of 1,521 chronic HCV infections were reported, 72% males, median age 52 years, and an overall rate of 8.8 (95%CI 8.4-9.2) per 100,000 population. We observed an overall decline (-41.9%) in the number of reported chronic HCV in 2020 compared to 2019, with the sharpest decline in men who have sex with men (MSM)-related transmission (-57.9% in 2020, p = 0.005). CONCLUSIONS: Reported cases of chronic HCV strongly declined during the COVID-19 pandemic when healthcare services were scaled down. Between February and June 2021, reported chronic HCV cases increased again, indicating a recovery of healthcare services. MSM showed the largest decline compared to other groups. Further research is needed to fully understand the impact of access to healthcare, health seeking behaviour, and (sexual) transmission risks of HCV during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Clinical outcomes following DAA therapy in patients with HCV-related cirrhosis depend on disease severity.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: HCV-infected patients with cirrhosis achieve high sustained virological response (SVR) rates with direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) even after hepatic decompensation. We aimed to assess the clinical outcome following DAAs among patients with compensated and decompensated cirrhosis in relation to SVR and changes in model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score. METHODS: Consecutive DAA-treated chronic HCV-infected patients with cirrhosis from 4 hepatology clinics were included. The primary endpoint in survival analyses was clinical disease progression, defined as liver failure, hepatocellular carcinoma, liver transplantation or death. RESULTS: In total, 868 patients were included with a median age of 59 (IQR 54-65) years; 719 (83%) with Child-Pugh A cirrhosis and 149 (17%) with Child-Pugh B/C cirrhosis. SVR was attained by 647 (90%) Child-Pugh A patients and 120 (81%) Child-Pugh B/C patients. During a median follow-up of 28 (IQR 20-36) months, 102 (14%) Child-Pugh A patients and 96 (64%) Child-Pugh B/C patients experienced clinical disease progression. SVR was independently associated with an improved event-free survival in patients with Child-Pugh A cirrhosis (adjusted hazard ratio [HR] 0.47; 95% CI 0.27-0.82, p = 0.007), but not in patients with Child-Pugh B/C cirrhosis (adjusted HR 1.23; 95% CI 0.67-2.26; p = 0.51). Twelve weeks post-DAAs, 28 (19%) patients with Child-Pugh B/C cirrhosis had ≥2-point MELD decline, but their 2-year event-free survival did not differ from those with a stable MELD (47.9%; 95% CI 28.7-67.1 vs. 48.9%; 95% CI 38.1-59.7, respectively, p = 0.99). CONCLUSIONS: Among patients with chronic HCV infection, DAA-induced SVR was associated with a reduced risk of clinical disease progression in patients with Child-Pugh A cirrhosis but not in patients with Child-Pugh B/C cirrhosis. In Child-Pugh B/C cirrhosis, a ≥2-point MELD decline did not translate into improved clinical outcome. LAY SUMMARY: Chronic HCV infection can be cured with antiviral therapy. In this study, we evaluated the long-term effects of antiviral therapy on liver-related complications in patients with cirrhosis. Our results suggest that patients with compensated cirrhosis who were cured of their HCV infection have a lower rate of complications. In contrast, the rate of complications was not related to virological cure among those with decompensated cirrhosis. While these patients seem to remain in need of liver transplantation, antiviral therapy may lower their priority on the liver transplantation waiting list.

A Comparison of Prognostic Scores (Mayo, UK-PBC, and GLOBE) in Primary Biliary Cholangitis.

INTRODUCTION: Comparative data on scores that predict outcome in primary biliary cholangitis (PBC) are scarce. We aimed to assess and compare the prognostic value of the Mayo Risk Score (MRS, 1989 and 1994), UK-PBC score, and GLOBE score in a large international cohort of patients with PBC. METHODS: Ursodeoxycholic acid-treated patients from 7 centers participating in the GLOBAL PBC Study Group were included. The discriminatory performance of the scores was assessed with concordance statistics at yearly intervals up to 5 years. Model for End-stage Liver Disease was included for comparison. Prediction accuracy was assessed by comparing predicted survival and actual survival in Kaplan-Meier analyses. RESULTS: A total of 1,100 ursodeoxycholic acid-treated patients with PBC were included, with a mean (SD) age of 53.6 (12.0) years, of whom 1,003 (91%) were female. During a median follow-up of 7.6 (interquartile range 4.1-11.7) years, 42 patients underwent liver transplantation, and 127 patients died. At 1 year, the concordance statistic for Model for End-stage Liver Disease was 0.68 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.64-0.72), 0.74 (95% CI 0.67-0.80) for the UK-PBC score, 0.76 (95% CI 0.72-0.81) for the MRS (1989 and 1994), and 0.80 (95% CI 0.76-0.84) for the GLOBE score. The GLOBE score showed superior discriminatory performance, but differences were not statistically different. For all scores, discriminatory performance increased in those with bilirubin >0.6 × ULN and advanced fibrosis estimated with Fibrosis-4. The predicted (median) minus observed 5-year transplant-free survival was +0.4% and +2.5% for the MRS (1989) and GLOBE score, respectively. DISCUSSION: All prognostic scores developed for PBC (GLOBE, UK-PBC, and MRS) demonstrated comparable discriminating performance for liver transplantation or death as well as good prediction accuracy.

Number needed to treat with ursodeoxycholic acid therapy to prevent liver transplantation or death in primary biliary cholangitis.

OBJECTIVE: The clinical benefit of ursodeoxycholic acid (UDCA) in primary biliary cholangitis (PBC) has never been reported in absolute measures. The aim of this study was to assess the number needed to treat (NNT) with UDCA to prevent liver transplantation (LT) or death among patients with PBC. METHODS: The NNT was calculated based on the untreated LT-free survival and HR of UDCA with respect to LT or death as derived from inverse probability of treatment weighting-adjusted Cox proportional hazard analyses within the Global PBC Study Group database. RESULTS: We included 3902 patients with a median follow-up of 7.8 (4.1-12.1) years. The overall HR of UDCA was 0.46 (95% CI 0.40 to 0.52) and the 5-year LT-free survival without UDCA was 81% (95% CI 79 to 82). The NNT to prevent one LT or death within 5 years (NNT5y) was 11 (95% CI 9 to 13). Although the HR of UDCA was similar for patients with and without cirrhosis (0.33 vs 0.31), the NNT5y was 4 (95% CI 3 to 5) and 20 (95% CI 14 to 34), respectively. Among patients with low alkaline phosphatase (ALP) (≤2× the upper limit of normal (ULN)), intermediate ALP (2-4× ULN) and high ALP (>4× ULN), the NNT5y to prevent one LT or death was 26 (95% CI 15 to 70), 11 (95% CI 8 to 17) and 5 (95% CI 4 to 8), respectively. CONCLUSION: The absolute clinical efficacy of UDCA with respect to LT or death varied with baseline prognostic characteristics, but was high throughout. These findings strongly emphasise the incentive to promptly initiate UDCA treatment in all patients with PBC and may improve patient compliance.

Goals of Treatment for Improved Survival in Primary Biliary Cholangitis: Treatment Target Should Be Bilirubin Within the Normal Range and Normalization of Alkaline Phosphatase.

INTRODUCTION: In primary biliary cholangitis (PBC), bilirubin and alkaline phosphatase (ALP) are widely established as independent predictors of prognosis. Current treatment goals do not aim for normalization of surrogate markers because their association with survival has not been defined. METHODS: The patient cohort from the GLOBAL PBC Study Group was used, comprising of long-term follow-up data from European and North American centers. Ursodeoxycholic acid-treated and untreated patients with bilirubin levels ≤1 × upper limit of normal (ULN) at baseline or 1 year were included. The association of normal ALP with transplant-free survival was assessed in a subgroup with ALP ≤1.67 × ULN at 1 year. Optimal thresholds of bilirubin and ALP to predict liver transplantation (LT) or death were evaluated. RESULTS: There were 2,281 patients included in the time zero cohort and 2,555 patients in the 1-year cohort. The bilirubin threshold with the highest ability to predict LT or death at 1 year was 0.6 × ULN (hazard ratio 2.12, 95% CI 1.69-2.66, P < 0.001). The 10-year survival rates of patients with bilirubin ≤0.6 × ULN and >0.6 × ULN were 91.3% and 79.2%, respectively (P < 0.001). The risk for LT or death was stable below the bilirubin levels of 0.6 × ULN, yet increased beyond this threshold. Ursodeoxycholic acid-induced reduction in bilirubin below this threshold was associated with an 11% improvement in 10-year survival. Furthermore, ALP normalization was optimal, with 10-year survival rates of 93.2% in patients with ALP ≤ 1 × ULN and 86.1% in those with ALP 1.0-1.67 × ULN. DISCUSSION: Attaining bilirubin levels ≤0.6 × ULN or normal ALP are associated with the lowest risk for LT or death in patients with PBC. This has important implications for treatment targets.

Validation, clinical utility and limitations of the Amsterdam-Oxford model for primary sclerosing cholangitis.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Recently the Amsterdam-Oxford model (AOM) was introduced as a prognostic model to assess the risk of death and/or liver transplantation (LT) in primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC). We aimed to validate and assess the utility of the AOM. METHODS: Clinical and laboratory data were collected from the time of PSC diagnosis until the last visit or time of LT or death. The AOM was calculated at yearly intervals following PSC diagnosis. Discriminatory performance was assessed by calculation of the C-statistic and prediction accuracy by comparing the predicted survival with the observed survival in Kaplan-Meier estimates. A grid search was performed to identify the most discriminatory AOM threshold. RESULTS: A total of 534 patients with PSC and a mean (SD) age of 39.2 (13.1) years were included. The diagnosis was large duct PSC in 466 (87%), PSC with features of autoimmune hepatitis in 52 (10%) and small-duct PSC in 16 (3%). During the median (IQR) follow-up of 7.8 (4.0-12.6) years, 167 patients underwent LT and 65 died. The median LT-free survival was 13.2 (11.8-14.7) years. The C-statistic of the AOM ranged from 0.67 at baseline to 0.75 at 5 years of follow-up. The difference between the predicted and observed survival ranged from -1.6% at 1 year to + 3.9% at 5 years of follow-up. Patients that developed AOM scores >2.0 were at significant risk of LT or death (time-dependent hazard ratio 4.09; 95% CI 2.99-5.61). CONCLUSIONS: In this large cohort of patients with PSC, the AOM showed an adequate discriminative performance and good prediction accuracy at PSC diagnosis and during follow-up. This study further validates the AOM as a valuable risk stratification tool in PSC and extends its utility. LAY SUMMARY: In our study we assessed whether the Amsterdam-Oxford model (AOM) is able to correctly estimate the risk of liver transplantation or death in patients with primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC). This model uses 7 objective and readily available variables to estimate prognosis for individual patients at the time of PSC diagnosis. The AOM may aid in patient counselling and timing of diagnostic procedures or therapeutic interventions for complications of liver disease. We confirm that the model works well at PSC diagnosis, but also when the AOM is recalculated at different timepoints during follow-up, greatly improving the applicability of the model in clinical practice and for individual patients.

Ursodeoxycholic acid therapy and liver transplant-free survival in patients with primary biliary cholangitis.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: The clinical efficacy of ursodeoxycholic acid (UDCA) in primary biliary cholangitis (PBC) remains subject to debate as definitive randomized controlled trials are lacking. We aimed to determine whether UDCA prolongs liver transplant (LT)-free survival in patients with PBC. METHODS: This international cohort study included patients from the Global PBC Study Group database, originating from 8 countries in Europe and North America. Both UDCA-treated and untreated patients were included. LT and death were assessed as a combined endpoint through Cox regression analyses, with inverse probability treatment weighting (IPTW). RESULTS: In the 3,902 patients included, the mean (SD) age was 54.3 (11.9) years, 3,552 patients (94.0%) were female, 3,529 patients (90.4%) were treated with UDCA and 373 patients (9.6%) were not treated. The median (interquartile range) follow-up was 7.8 (4.1-12.1) years. In total, 721 UDCA-treated patients and 145 untreated patients died or underwent LT. After IPTW, the 10-year cumulative LT-free survival was 79.7% (95% CI 78.1-81.2) among UDCA-treated patients and 60.7% (95% CI 58.2-63.4) among untreated patients (p <0.001). UDCA was associated with a statistically significant reduced risk of LT or death (hazard ratio 0.46, 95% CI 0.40-0.52; p <0.001). The hazard ratio remained statistically significant in all stages of disease. Patients classified as inadequate biochemical responders after 1 year of UDCA had a lower risk of LT or death than patients who were not treated (adjusted hazard ratio 0.56; 95% CI 0.45-0.69; p <0.001). CONCLUSION: The use of UDCA improves LT-free survival among patients with PBC, regardless of the disease stage and the observed biochemical response. These findings support UDCA as the current universal standard of care in PBC. LAY SUMMARY: In this international multicenter study of 3,902 patients with primary biliary cholangitis, we found that treatment with ursodeoxycholic acid is associated with prolonged liver transplant-free survival. This association was significant, irrespective of sex, age, or disease stage. The survival benefit remained statistically significant in patients with an incomplete biochemical response to ursodeoxycholic acid therapy.