Emerging forest-peatland bistability and resilience of European peatland carbon stores.

Northern peatlands store large amounts of carbon. Observations indicate that forests and peatlands in northern biomes can be alternative stable states for a range of landscape settings. Climatic and hydrological changes may reduce the resilience of peatlands and forests, induce persistent shifts between these states, and release the carbon stored in peatlands. Here, we present a dynamic simulation model constrained and validated by a wide set of observations to quantify how feedbacks in water and carbon cycling control resilience of both peatlands and forests in northern landscapes. Our results show that 34% of Europe (area) has a climate that can currently sustain existing rainwater-fed peatlands (raised bogs). However, raised bog initiation and restoration by water conservation measures after the original peat soil has disappeared is only possible in 10% of Europe where the climate allows raised bogs to initiate and outcompete forests. Moreover, in another 10% of Europe, existing raised bogs (concerning ∼20% of the European raised bogs) are already affected by ongoing climate change. Here, forests may overgrow peatlands, which could potentially release in the order of 4% (∼24 Pg carbon) of the European soil organic carbon pool. Our study demonstrates quantitatively that preserving and restoring peatlands requires looking beyond peatland-specific processes and taking into account wider landscape-scale feedbacks with forest ecosystems.

The changing contribution of top-down and bottom-up limitation of mesopredators during 220 years of land use and climate change.

Apex predators may buffer bottom-up driven ecosystem change, as top-down suppression may dampen herbivore and mesopredator responses to increased resource availability. However, theory suggests that for this buffering capacity to be realized, the equilibrium abundance of apex predators must increase. This raises the question: will apex predators maintain herbivore/mesopredator limitation, if bottom-up change relaxes resource constraints? Here, we explore changes in mesopredator (red fox Vulpes vulpes) abundance over 220 years in response to eradication and recovery of an apex predator (Eurasian lynx Lynx lynx), and changes in land use and climate which are linked to resource availability. A three-step approach was used. First, recent data from Finland and Sweden were modelled to estimate linear effects of lynx density, land use and winter temperature on fox density. Second, lynx density, land use and winter temperature was estimated in a 22 650 km2 focal area in boreal and boreo-nemoral Sweden in the years 1830, 1920, 2010 and 2050. Third, the models and estimates were used to project historic and future fox densities in the focal area. Projected fox density was lowest in 1830 when lynx density was high, winters cold and the proportion of cropland low. Fox density peaked in 1920 due to lynx eradication, a mesopredator release boosted by favourable bottom-up changes - milder winters and cropland expansion. By 2010, lynx recolonization had reduced fox density, but it remained higher than in 1830, partly due to the bottom-up changes. Comparing 1830 to 2010, the contribution of top-down limitation decreased, while environment enrichment relaxed bottom-up limitation. Future scenarios indicated that by 2050, lynx density would have to increase by 79% to compensate for a projected climate-driven increase in fox density. We highlight that although top-down limitation in theory can buffer bottom-up change, this requires compensatory changes in apex predator abundance. Hence apex predator recolonization/recovery to historical levels would not be sufficient to compensate for widespread changes in climate and land use, which have relaxed the resource constraints for many herbivores and mesopredators. Variation in bottom-up conditions may also contribute to context dependence in apex predator effects.

Improving load estimates for NO3 and P in surface waters by characterizing the concentration response to rainfall events.

For the evaluation of action programs to reduce surface water pollution, water authorities invest heavily in water quality monitoring. However, sampling frequencies are generally insufficient to capture the dynamical behavior of solute concentrations. For this study, we used on-site equipment that performed semicontinuous (15 min interval) NO(3) and P concentration measurements from June 2007 to July 2008. We recorded the concentration responses to rainfall events with a wide range in antecedent conditions and rainfall durations and intensities. Through sequential linear multiple regression analysis, we successfully related the NO(3) and P event responses to high-frequency records of precipitation, discharge, and groundwater levels. We applied the regression models to reconstruct concentration patterns between low-frequency water quality measurements. This new approach significantly improved load estimates from a 20% to a 1% bias for NO(3) and from a 63% to a 5% bias for P. These results demonstrate the value of commonly available precipitation, discharge, and groundwater level data for the interpretation of water quality measurements. Improving load estimates from low-frequency concentration data just requires a period of high-frequency concentration measurements and a conceptual, statistical, or physical model for relating the rainfall event response of solute concentrations to quantitative hydrological changes.

Urban hydrogeology: Transport routes and mixing of water and solutes in a groundwater influenced urban lowland catchment.

Urban areas in coastal lowlands host a significant part of the world's population. In these areas, cities have often expanded to unfavorable locations that have to be drained or where excess rain water and groundwater need to be pumped away in order to maintain dry feet for its citizens. As a result, groundwater seepage influences surface water quality in many of such urban lowland catchments. This study aims at identifying the flow routes and mixing processes that control surface water quality in the groundwater-influenced urban catchment Polder Geuzenveld, which is part of the city of Amsterdam. Geuzenveld is a highly paved urban area with a subsurface rain water collection system, a groundwater drainage system, and a main surface water system that receive runoff from pavement and roofs, shallow groundwater and direct groundwater seepage, respectively. We conducted a field survey and systematic monitoring to identify the spatial and temporal variations in water quality in runoff, ditch water, drain water, and shallow and deep groundwater. We found that Geuzenveld receives a substantial inflow of deep, O2-depleted groundwater, which is enriched in ammonium and phosphorus due to the subsurface mineralization of organic matter under sulfate-reducing conditions. This groundwater is mixed in the ditches during wet periods with O2-rich runoff, and iron- and phosphate-rich drain water. Unlike natural catchments, the newly created, separated urban flow routes lead to mixing of water in the main surface water itself, shortcutting much of the soil and shallow subsurface. This leads to low O2 and high ammonia concentrations in dry periods, which might be mitigated by water level management or artificially increasing O2 levels by water inlet or artificially aeration of the main water canals. Further research is necessary how to optimize artificial urban systems to deliver a better ecological and chemical status of the surface water.