Green technology innovation under differentiated carbon constraints: The substitution effect of industrial relocation.

The relationship between the carbon intensity constraint policy (CICP) and green technology innovation (GTI) has been well documented in the literature. However, the allocation method of the carbon abatement target is often ignored. The allocation method plays a decisive role in the policy effect. After alleviating the possible endogenous problems through quasi natural experiment, we find that the CICP with the special allocation method promotes GTI in the western provinces but inhibits GTI in the eastern provinces. Especially, the positive impact in the western provinces presents an intensifying trend. To discuss the potential mechanism, we further construct a three-dimensional panel, which contains 1.84 million observations. Our macro and micro evidences reveal that manufacturing firms in the eastern provinces tend to move westward under carbon constraints rather than GTI. In other words, the industrial relocation has a substitution effect on GTI, which further explains why the CICP inhibits GTI in the eastern provinces. The above findings offer targeted policy reference for regulators and government departments concerned with the issues of carbon emission reduction and GTI.

Can China's carbon intensity constraint policies improve carbon emission performance? Evidence from regional carbon emissions.

Carbon Intensity Constraint Policies (CICPs) are vital for addressing climate change challenges and advancing sustainable development. Since 2010, China has rolled out three five-year CICPs. However, there is limited understanding of their impact on carbon emission performance (CEP). Addressing this, this study pioneers the exploration of the CICP's impact on China's CEP. Drawing from government intervention and green paradox theories, this study highlights a concerning scenario: local governments achieve emission targets via excessive intervention. For deeper insights, this study melds the overall technology frontier concept with a non-radial, non-angle directional distance function, introducing a novel efficiency model rooted in the Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) method. This offers a CEP measure across 30 Chinese provincial regions from 2002 to 2019. Using the quasi-difference-in-differences (quasi-DID) and moderated mediation models, this study ascertains the presence of the green paradox, uncovers its reasons, and suggests mitigation strategies. The results indicate that high government intervention diminishes CEP. This negative effect intensifies under greater regional fiscal pressure. Alarmingly, local authorities' eagerness to meet targets shows a counterproductive, inverted N-shaped trend regarding CICPs' time-based influence on regional CEP. Moreover, the impact varies based on regional economic development levels and stages. This study has ensured the robustness of the findings via parallel trend tests, parallel exclusion policies, a strengthened quasi-DID framework, and diverse control variable configurations. This study underscores the need for more balanced government intervention. It offers valuable policy insights, guiding China's upcoming CICP phase to realize the ambition of peaking carbon by 2030 and achieving carbon neutrality by 2060.