Preventing a cluster from becoming a new wave in settings with zero community COVID-19 cases.

BACKGROUND: In settings with zero community transmission, any new SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks are likely to be the result of random incursions. The level of restrictions in place at the time of the incursion is likely to considerably affect possible outbreak trajectories, but the probability that a large outbreak eventuates is not known. METHODS: We used an agent-based model to investigate the relationship between ongoing restrictions and behavioural factors, and the probability of an incursion causing an outbreak and the resulting growth rate. We applied our model to the state of Victoria, Australia, which has reached zero community transmission as of November 2020. RESULTS: We found that a future incursion has a 45% probability of causing an outbreak (defined as a 7-day average of > 5 new cases per day within 60 days) if no restrictions were in place, decreasing to 23% with a mandatory masks policy, density restrictions on venues such as restaurants, and if employees worked from home where possible. A drop in community symptomatic testing rates was associated with up to a 10-percentage point increase in outbreak probability, highlighting the importance of maintaining high testing rates as part of a suppression strategy. CONCLUSIONS: Because the chance of an incursion occurring is closely related to border controls, outbreak risk management strategies require an integrated approaching spanning border controls, ongoing restrictions, and plans for response. Each individual restriction or control strategy reduces the risk of an outbreak. They can be traded off against each other, but if too many are removed there is a danger of accumulating an unsafe level of risk. The outbreak probabilities estimated in this study are of particular relevance in assessing the downstream risks associated with increased international travel.

A cross-country core strategy comparison in China, Japan, Singapore and South Korea during the early COVID-19 pandemic.

BACKGROUND: The study aimed to analyze the effectiveness of COVID-19 strategies adopted by China, Japan, Singapore, and South Korea. METHODS: We extracted publicly available data from various official websites, summarized the strategies implemented in these four countries, and assessed the effectiveness of the prevention and control measures adopted by these countries. RESULTS: As of October 28, 2020, the growth of daily new confirmed cases has stabilized in China, Singapore, and South Korea. In Japan, the daily new confirmed cases increased sharply since it lifted a state of emergency, but case-fatality maintains at a lower level. The growth of total cases is near stagnant in China and Singapore, with a case-fatality of 5.39 and 0.05% respectively. The case-fatality rate between Japan and South Korea is identical at 1.76%, however, Japan's growth rate of cases has increased more rapidly than South Korea. CONCLUSION: This study found that China, Japan, Singapore, and South Korea accessed the situation within their own borders and implemented different intervention strategies to curb the spread of COVID-19 and maintain lower rates of case-fatality. China, Singapore, and South Korea adopted the containment strategy, while Japan adopted the mitigation strategy. Although Japan's case-fatality maintained at a low level, daily new cases increased faster than the other three countries. This result indicated that a mitigation strategy could be inferior to a containment strategy.

Review of epidemic, containment strategies, clinical management, and economic evaluation of COVID-19 pandemic.

The spread of the emerging pathogen, named as SARS-CoV-2, has led to an unprecedented COVID-19 pandemic since 1918 influenza pandemic. This review first sheds light on the similarity on global transmission, surges of pandemics, and the disparity of prevention between two pandemics. Such a brief comparison also provides an insight into the potential sequelae of COVID-19 based on the inference drawn from the fact that a cascade of successive influenza pandemic occurred after 1918 and also the previous experience on the epidemic of SARS and MERS occurring in 2003 and 2015, respectively. We then propose a systematic framework for elucidating emerging infectious disease (EID) such as COVID-19 with a panorama viewpoint from natural infection and disease process, public health interventions (non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) and vaccine), clinical treatments and therapies (antivirals), until global aspects of health and economic loss, and economic evaluation of interventions with emphasis on mass vaccination. This review not only concisely delves for evidence-based scientific literatures from the origin of outbreak, the spread of SARS-CoV-2 to three surges of pandemic, and NPIs and vaccine uptakes but also provides a new insight into how to apply big data analytics to identify unprecedented discoveries through COVID-19 pandemic scenario embracing from biomedical to economic viewpoints.

[Early containment strategies and core measures for prevention and control of novel coronavirus pneumonia in China].

In December 2019, novel coronavirus pneumonia epidemic occurred in Wuhan, Hubei Province, and spread rapidly across the country. In the early stages of the epidemic, China adopted the containment strategy and implemented a series of core measures around this strategic point, including social mobilization, strengthening case isolation and close contacts tracking management, blocking epidemic areas and traffic control to reduce personnel movements and increase social distance, environmental measures and personal protection, with a view to controlling the epidemic as soon as possible in limited areas such as Wuhan. This article summarizes the background, key points and core measures in the country and provinces. It sent prospects for future prevention and control strategies.

Core health system measures response to COVID-19 among East Asian countries.

Objective: The purpose of this study is to summarize the health system response to COVID-19 in four East Asian countries, analyze the effectiveness of their health system response, and provide lessons for other countries to control the epidemic and optimize their health system response. Methods: This study investigated and summarized COVID-19 data and health system response in four East Asian countries, China, Japan, Mongolia, and South Korea from national governments and ministries of health, WHO country offices, and official websites of international organizations, to assess the effectiveness of health system measures. Result: As of June 30, 2022, all four countries are in a declining portion of COVID-19. China has two waves, and new cases increased slowly, with the total cases per million remaining within 4, indicating a low level. Japan has experienced six waves, with case growth at an all-time high, total cases per million of 250.994. Mongolia started the epidemic later, but also experienced four waves, with total cases per million of 632.658, the highest of the four countries. South Korea has seen an increasing number of new cases per wave, with a total case per million of 473.759. Conclusion: In containment strategies adopted by China and Mongolia, and mitigation strategies adopted by Japan and South Korea, health systems have played important roles in COVID-19 prevention and control. While promoting vaccination, countries should pay attention to non-pharmaceutical health system measures, as evidenced by: focusing on public information campaigns to lead public minds; strengthening detection capabilities for early detection and identification; using technical ways to participate in contact tracing, and promoting precise judging isolation.

Critical national response in coping with Omicron variant in China, Israel, South Africa, and the United States.

Objective: The aim of this study was to analyze the effectiveness of prevention and control strategies and put forward further measures according to the epidemiological characteristics of Omicron. It summarized the national response during the Omicron epidemic in four countries: China, Israel, South Africa, and the United States. Methods: This study summarized prevention and control measures in China, Israel, South Africa, and the United States in their response to the Omicron epidemic, and it also evaluated the effectiveness of these measures. Results: After the Omicron variant emerged, China and Israel adopted containment strategies, using the "dynamic zero" policy and country closure measures. Meanwhile, South Africa and the United States adopted mitigation strategies, which virtually abandoned social interventions and only focused on medical measures and vaccines. From the first day of reported Omicron cases to 28 February 2022, the four countries reported the following cases: China reported 9,670 new confirmed cases and no deaths, with total deaths per million of 3.21; Israel reported 2,293,415 new confirmed cases and 2,016 deaths, with total deaths per million of 1,097.21; South Africa reported 731,384 new confirmed cases and 9,509 deaths, with total deaths per million reaching 1,655.708; the United States reported 3,042,743 new confirmed cases and 1,688,851 deaths, with total deaths per million reaching 2,855.052, which was much higher than the other countries. Conclusion: Based on this study, it seems that China and Israel adopted containment strategies, while South Africa and the United States adopted mitigation strategies. A rapid response is a powerful weapon against the Omicron epidemic. Vaccines alone will not get any country out of this crisis, and non-pharmacological measures should be used in addition to them. According to the SPO model, future work should consider the strengthening of emergency management capacity, adhering to public health measures, promoting vaccination, and strengthening patient care and close contact management, which are effective measures in coping with Omicron.

Characteristics and Containment of 74 Imported COVID-19 Outbreaks: Experiences, Lessons, and Implications - China, 2020-2021.

What is already known about this topic?: After the initial coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak in Wuhan, China, the outbreaks during the dynamic-zero policy period in the mainland of China have not been systematically documented. What is added by this report?: We summarized the characteristics of 74 imported COVID-19 outbreaks between March 19, 2020 and December 31, 2021. All outbreaks of early severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variants were successfully contained with the aid of nucleic acid testing, modern communication technologies, and non-pharmacological interventions. What are the implications for public health practice?: These findings provide us with confidence for the containment of future emerging infectious diseases alike at early stages to prevent pandemics or to win time to gain experience, develop vaccines and drugs, vaccinate people, and wait for the possible lessening of the virus' pathogenicity.

Comparison Between China and Brazil in the Two Waves of COVID-19 Prevention and Control.

OBJECTIVE: This study analyzes the effectiveness of COVID-19 prevention and control in China and Brazil from the perspectives of policy and meteorological conditions, and provides experience for epidemic prevention and control. METHODS: This study collects data on meteorological conditions, vaccination and mutant strains in the two countries to analyze the reasons for the differences in epidemic status between the two countries and extracts public data on COVID-19 through various official websites, summarizes the prevention and control policies implemented by the two countries, and evaluates their effectiveness. RESULTS: As of August 12, 2021, the total number of COVID-19 cases and the daily number of new COVID-19 cases in China have been growing steadily, showing remarkable results in epidemic control. The total number of confirmed cases and the daily number of new confirmed cases in Brazil have continued to increase rapidly. The total death case in Brazil has reached 560,000, far exceeding that in China, and the effect of epidemic prevention and control is not satisfactory. CONCLUSIONS: Multiple factors, such as meteorological conditions, policies and strategies, and economic conditions, can influence the spread of COVID-19, and therefore, the situation varies greatly from country to country. China and Brazil have chosen different interventions in the fight against COVID-19. The policy measures taken by China are typical containment measures and Brazil has a mitigation strategy. From the perspective of the current situation of the epidemic development in both countries, the cumulative death rate and daily new confirmed cases in Brazil are much higher than those in China, which indicates that the containment strategy is more effective than mitigation strategy in preventing and controlling COVID-19. Fighting the epidemic is a global long-lasting battle, and the two countries should learn from each other with the premise of respecting their national conditions. Countries should deepen cooperation and not let up prematurely.

A comparative study of strategies for containing the COVID-19 pandemic in Gulf Cooperation Council countries and the European Union.

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic has impacted every aspect of human lives including health, businesses, and lifestyles. In spite of governments implementing various strategies across the globe, the pandemic is still expanding with increasing numbers of positive cases. In addition, countries are reopening and easing lockdown restrictions in order to get their economies back on track, and this has led to an increase in the transmission of novel coronavirus. Therefore, it is essential to regularly review the containment strategies employed in different regions in order to understand the characteristics of COVID-19 transmission and to formulate a future course of actions. OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study is to review the COVID-19 transmission statistics in Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) and European Union (EU) countries, and to compare these data with the various containment strategies implemented for containing the spread of the virus. METHODS: A review method was adopted along with different statistical methods for comparing and analyzing COVID-19 data and containment strategies. Transmission types and the Case Fatality Rate (CFR) in the countries in both regions are used to present the current state of the pandemic. In addition, changes in the number of COVID-19 cases are compared with the mitigation and suppression strategies implemented in both regions and their impact is analyzed. RESULTS: Countries in the EU were slow in reacting to the pandemic, as delays are observed in the implementation of mitigation strategies. However, suppression strategies were implemented soon after mitigation strategies. GCC countries, on the other hand, were quick to react, and they implemented both mitigation and suppression strategies simultaneously, as soon as the pandemic emerged. The CFR was found to be low among GCC countries compared to EU countries. In addition, a second wave of transmission was observed in the EU, whereas in GCC countries there has been no second wave, although a gradual increase in the number of cases is observed. Community transmission was observed among the majority of countries in both GCC and EU countries. CONCLUSIONS: With the reopening of markets, the focus of governments should be on developing integrated user-centric preventive strategies, with a blend of awareness creation, motivation, and support.

Response to the COVID-19 Pandemic: Comparison of Strategies in Six Countries.

Objective: This study aimed to examine the effectiveness of containment strategies and mitigation strategies to provide a reference for controlling the ongoing global spread of the pandemic. Methods: We extracted publicly available data from various official websites between January 1 and December 31, 2020, summarized the strategies implemented in China, South Korea, Singapore, the United States, the United Kingdom, and France, and assessed the effectiveness of the prevention and control measures adopted by these countries with the daily new cases and mortality rate per 100,000 population. Results: China, South Korea, and Singapore adopted containment strategies, which maintained a proactive approach by identifying and managing cases, tracking and isolating close contacts. China and Singapore had a similar epidemic curve and the new daily cases. As of December 31, 2020, the new daily cases of China and Singapore were below 100 with the mortality rates per 100,000 population of 0.3 and 0.5, respectively. But the new daily case of South Korea was as high as 1,029, with a mortality rate per 100,000 population of 1.8. In contrast, the United States, the United Kingdom, and France responded with mitigation strategies that focus on treating severe cases and those with underlying conditions. They had similar epidemic curves and mortality rates per 100,000 population. The United States had up to 234,133 new confirmed cases per day, and the mortality rate per 100,000 population was 107, while the United Kingdom had 56,029 new confirmed cases per day and the mortality rate per 100,000 population was 108, and France had 20,042 new cases per day, with a mortality rate per 100,000 population of 99. Conclusions: China, Korea, and Singapore, which implemented strict containment measures, had significant outbreak control. Meanwhile, the successful practices in China, Singapore, and South Korea show that the containment strategies were practices that work especially at the individual level identifying and managing the infected patients and their close contacts. In the United States, the United Kingdom, and France, which implemented the mitigation policies, the effect of epidemic prevention and control was not significant that the epidemic continued or even increased epidemic relatively quickly.

What is always necessary throughout efforts to prevent and control COVID-19 and other infectious diseases? A physical containment strategy and public mobilization and management.

The COVID-19 pandemic continues to ravage the world. As many countries have entered the postpandemic period, current efforts to prevent and control COVID-19 have gradually been normalized in many countries. Although the focus is on vaccines to achieve herd immunity, conventional physical containment strategies should be reassessed as part of efforts to prevent and control infectious diseases. Continued respiratory protective measures such as social distancing and the wearing of masks have been extensively accepted by the public in most countries. A point worth noticing is that the activities of influenza and other respiratory diseases have decreased as these strategies have been implemented. Public mobilization and large-scale campaigns to promote health are also important to interrupting the transmission of pathogens. A good example can be found in the achievements of China's Patriotic Public Health Campaign. These practices underscore the importance of enhancing physical containment strategies and public mobilization and management, with support from the legal system, to respond to any potential emerging infectious diseases.

Modeling a Pandemic (COVID-19) Management Strategy for Urban Slums Using Social Geometry Framework.

The purpose of this paper is to utilize social geometry framework to model a pandemic (COVID-19) management strategy in densely populated informal settlements in Kenya. Our central claim is that the containment strategy that was instituted to control spread of COVID-19 failed to recognize the socio-cultural and livelihood complexities of the urban slum residents. This unmitigated strategy predisposed the residents to risks of heightened transmission of the pandemic. Drawing on social geometry approach in the analysis of human relations, we reveal some insights offered by our experiences in theorizing about public health intervention (PHI) and in doing so develop an alternative analytical framework ('social pendulum') to support the development of a PHI strategy that is compatible with the swing-like lifestyle of residents in the informal settlements. Our conclusion revisits the reliability and validity criteria for the new framework and offers some direction for further research.

Cet article a pour but d'utiliser un cadre de géométrie sociale pour modéliser une stratégie de gestion de la pandémie (COVID-19) dans les zones d'habitation informelles et densément peuplées au Kenya. Nous partons du principe que la stratégie d'endiguement qui a été mise en place pour contrôler la propagation de la COVID-19 n'a pas réussi à prendre la mesure de la complexité socioculturelle, ni celle des moyens de subsistance, des habitants des bidonvilles urbains. Cette stratégie indiscriminée a exposé les habitants à des risques accrus de transmission de la pandémie. Le modèle de géométrie sociale, au contraire, a la possibilité d'influencer la refonte d'une stratégie alternative d'intervention de santé publique qui serait compatible avec la configuration unique des moyens de subsistance dans les zones d'habitation informelles, configuration qui adopte des mouvements de pendule. Nous élaborons un cadre analytique (du «pendule social¼) en nous basant sur ce mode de vie, pour appuyer le développement d'une stratégie alternative d'intervention de santé publique. Dans notre conclusion, nous revisitons les critères de fiabilité et de validité du nouveau cadre et offrons une orientation pour les études à venir.