A new approach to geostatistical synthesis of historical records reveals capuchin spatial responses to climate and demographic change.

Recent proliferation of GPS technology has transformed animal movement research. Yet, time-series data from this recent technology rarely span beyond a decade, constraining longitudinal research. Long-term field sites hold valuable historic animal location records, including hand-drawn maps and semantic descriptions. Here, we introduce a generalised workflow for converting such records into reliable location data to estimate home ranges, using 30 years of sleep-site data from 11 white-faced capuchin (Cebus imitator) groups in Costa Rica. Our findings illustrate that historic sleep locations can reliably recover home range size and geometry. We showcase the opportunity our approach presents to resolve open questions that can only be addressed with very long-term data, examining how home ranges are affected by climate cycles and demographic change. We urge researchers to translate historical records into usable movement data before this knowledge is lost; it is essential to understanding how animals are responding to our changing world.

Cross-scale assessments of the impacts and resilience of subtropical montane cloud forests to chronic seasonal droughts and episodic typhoons.

Montane cloud forests (MCFs) are ecosystems frequently immersed in fog and are vital for the terrestrial hydrological cycle and biodiversity hotspots. However, the potential impacts of climate change, particularly intensified droughts and typhoons, on the persistence of ecosystems remain unclear. Our study conducted cross-scale assessments using 6-year (2016-2021) ground litterfall and 21-year (2001-2021) satellite greenness data (the Enhanced Vegetation Index [EVI] and the EVI anomaly change [ΔEVI% ]), gross primary productivity anomaly change (ΔGPP% ), and meteorological variables (the standardized precipitation index [SPI] and wind speed). We found a positive correlation between summer EVI and ΔGPP% with the SPI-3 (3-month time scale), while winter litterfall showed a negative correlation. Maximum typhoon daily wind speed was negatively correlated with summer and the monthly ΔEVI% and ΔGPP% . These findings suggest vegetation damage and productivity loss were related to drought and typhoon intensities. Furthermore, our analysis highlighted that chronic seasonal droughts had more pronounced impacts on MCFs than severe typhoons, implying that high precipitation and frequent fog immersion do not necessarily mitigate the ramifications of water deficit on MCFs but might render MCFs more sensitive and vulnerable to drought. A significant negative correlation between the summer and winter ΔEVI% and ΔGPP% of the same year, suggesting disturbance severity during summer may facilitate vegetation regrowth and carbon accumulation in the subsequent winter. This finding may be attributed to the ecological resilience of MCFs, which enables them to recover from the previous summer. In the long-term, our results indicated an increase in vegetation resilience over two decades in MCFs, likely driven by rising temperatures and elevated carbon dioxide levels. However, the enhancement of resilience might be overshadowed by the potential intensified droughts and typhoons in the future, potentially causing severe damage and insufficient recovery times for MCFs, thus raising concerns about uncertainties regarding their sustained resilience.

The interplay of drought and hurricanes on tree recovery: insights from dynamic and weak functional responses.

Identifying the functional traits that enable recovery after extreme events is necessary for assessing forest persistence and functioning. However, the variability of traits mediating responses to disturbances presents a significant limitation, as these relationships may be contingent on the type of disturbance and change over time. This study investigates the effects of traits on tree growth-for short and longer terms-in response to two vastly different extreme climatic events (droughts and hurricanes) in a Puerto Rican forest. I found that trees display a dynamic functional response to extreme climatic events. Leaf traits associated with efficient photosynthesis mediated faster tree growth after hurricanes, while trees with low wood density and high water use efficiency displayed faster growth after drought. In the longer term, over both drought and hurricanes, tree size was the only significant predictor of growth, with faster growth for smaller trees. However, despite finding significant trait-growth relationships, the predictive power of traits was overall low. As the frequency of extreme events increases due to climate change, understanding the dynamic relationships between traits and tree growth is necessary for identifying strategies for recovery.

Long-term ecological responses of a lowland dipterocarp forest to climate changes and nutrient availability.

Understanding the long-term impact of projected climate change on tropical rainforests is critical given their central role in the Earth's system. Palaeoecological records can provide a valuable perspective on this problem. Here, we examine the effects of past climatic changes on the dominant forest type of Southeast Asia - lowland dipterocarp forest. We use a range of proxies extracted from a 1400-yr-old lacustrine sedimentary sequence from north-eastern Philippines to determine long-term vegetation responses of lowland dipterocarp forest, including its dominant tree group dipterocarps, to changes in precipitation, fire and nutrient availability over time. Our results show a positive relationship between dipterocarp pollen accumulation rates (PARs) and leaf wax hydrogen isotope values, which suggests a negative effect of drier conditions on dipterocarp abundance. Furthermore, we find a positive relationship between dipterocarp PARs and the proxy for phosphorus availability, which suggests phosphorus controls the productivity of these keystone trees on longer time scales. Other pollen taxa show widely varying relationships with the abiotic factors, demonstrating a high diversity of plant functional responses. Our findings provide novel insights into lowland dipterocarp forest responses to changing climatic conditions in the past and highlight potential impacts of future climate change on this globally important ecosystem.

Climate and socioeconomic drivers of biomass burning and carbon emissions from fires in tropical dry forests: A Pantropical analysis.

Global burned area has declined by nearly one quarter between 1998 and 2015. Drylands contain a large proportion of these global fires but there are important differences within the drylands, for example, savannas and tropical dry forests (TDF). Savannas, a biome fire-prone and fire-adapted, have reduced the burned area, while the fire in the TDF is one of the most critical factors impacting biodiversity and carbon emissions. Moreover, under climate change scenarios TDF is expected to increase its current extent and raise the risk of fires. Despite regional and global scale effects, and the influence of this ecosystem on the global carbon cycle, little effort has been dedicated to studying the influence of climate (seasonality and extreme events) and socioeconomic conditions of fire regimen in TDF. Here we use the Global Fire Emissions Database and, climate and socioeconomic metrics to better understand long-term factors explaining the variation in burned area and biomass in TDF at Pantropical scale. On average, fires affected 1.4% of the total TDF' area (60,208 km2 ) and burned 24.4% (259.6 Tg) of the global burned biomass annually at Pantropical scales. Climate modulators largely influence local and regional fire regimes. Inter-annual variation in fire regime is shaped by El Niño and La Niña. During the El Niño and the forthcoming year of La Niña, there is an increment in extension (35.2% and 10.3%) and carbon emissions (42.9% and 10.6%). Socioeconomic indicators such as land-management and population were modulators of the size of both, burned area and carbon emissions. Moreover, fires may reduce the capability to reach the target of "half protected species" in the globe, that is, high-severity fires are recorded in ecoregions classified as nature could reach half protected. These observations may contribute to improving fire-management.

El área global quemada se redujo en casi una cuarta parte entre 1998 y 2015. Los bosques secos contienen una gran proporción de esos incendios globales, pero existen diferencias importantes dentro de ellos, por ejemplo, las sabanas y los bosques secos tropicales (SBC). Las sabanas, son un bioma propenso y adaptado al fuego, y que en los últimos años han reducido su área quemada. Mientras que el fuego en la SBC es uno de los factores más críticos que impactan la biodiversidad y las emisiones de carbono. Además, bajo escenarios de cambio climático, se espera que la SBC aumente su extensión actual y aumente el riesgo de incendios. A pesar de los efectos a escala regional y global, y la influencia de este ecosistema en el ciclo global del carbono, se le ha dedicado poco esfuerzo a estudiar la influencia del clima (estacionalidad y eventos extremos) y las condiciones socioeconómicas del régimen de incendios. Aquí usamos la base de datos global de emisiones de incendios y métricas climáticas y socioeconómicas para comprender mejor los factores a largo plazo que explican la variación en el área quemada y la biomasa a escala Pantropical. En promedio, los incendios afectaron el 1,4% del área total de la SBC (60 208 km2 ) y quemaron el 24,4% (259,6 Tg) de la biomasa global quemada anualmente a escala Pantropical. Los moduladores climáticos influyen en gran medida en los regímenes de incendios locales y regionales. La variación interanual del régimen de incendios está determinada por El Niño y La Niña. Durante El Niño y el año subsecuente de La Niña, se produce un incremento en la extensión (35,2% y 10,3%) y en las emisiones de carbono (42,9% y 10,6%). Los indicadores socioeconómicos como la gestión de la tierra y la población fueron moduladores del tamaño tanto del área quemada como de las emisiones de carbono. Además, los incendios pueden reducir la capacidad de alcanzar el objetivo de "protección de la mitad de las especies" en el mundo, es decir, los incendios de alta gravedad se registran en ecorregiones clasificadas como naturaleza que podría alcanzar la protección de la mitad de su biodiversidad. Estas observaciones pueden contribuir a mejorar la gestión de incendios.

Hotspots of Predictability: Identifying Regions of High Precipitation Predictability at Seasonal Timescales From Limited Time Series Observations.

Precipitation prediction at seasonal timescales is important for planning and management of water resources as well as preparedness for hazards such as floods, droughts and wildfires. Quantifying predictability is quite challenging as a consequence of a large number of potential drivers, varying antecedent conditions, and small sample size of high-quality observations available at seasonal timescales, that in turn, increases prediction uncertainty and the risk of model overfitting. Here, we introduce a generalized probabilistic framework to account for these issues and assess predictability under uncertainty. We focus on prediction of winter (Nov-Mar) precipitation across the contiguous United States, using sea surface temperature-derived indices (averaged in Aug-Oct) as predictors. In our analysis we identify "predictability hotspots," which we define as regions where precipitation is inherently more predictable. Our framework estimates the entire predictive distribution of precipitation using copulas and quantifies prediction uncertainties, while employing principal component analysis for dimensionality reduction and a cross validation technique to avoid overfitting. We also evaluate how predictability changes across different quantiles of the precipitation distribution (dry, normal, wet amounts) using a multi-category 3 × 3 contingency table. Our results indicate that well-defined predictability hotspots occur in the Southwest and Southeast. Moreover, extreme dry and wet conditions are shown to be relatively more predictable compared to normal conditions. Our study may help with water resources management in several subregions of the United States and can be used to assess the fidelity of earth system models in successfully representing teleconnections and predictability.

Genetically modified maize hybrids and delayed sowing reduced drought effects across a rainfall gradient in temperate Argentina.

Before the introduction of genetically modified insect-tolerant maize (Zea mays L.) in 1997, most of the production of this staple in Argentina was concentrated in humid and sub-humid temperate regions. Early spring sowings minimized the risk of water deficit around flowering and yield reduction due to pests. Use of genetically modified maize allowed optimization of sowing dates to synchronize critical periods for kernel set determination with the times of the year when water deficits are less likely, reducing large interannual variations in grain yield. This change in sowing date did not start until 2009, after the occurrence of two successive dry phases of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation phenomenon. The area of land cropped to maize in Argentina has expanded dramatically since then, particularly beyond the humid areas. Currently, maize is sown in an almost 50%/50% distribution between early and late sowings, including double cropping. Changes in agronomic practices such as sowing date and production area can lead to changes in the timing and intensity of water deficits along the maize growth cycle. This review provides an overview of new patterns of water deficit across humid, sub-humid, and semi-arid mid-latitude environments of Argentina, and their effects on grain yield and yield components.

The Indian Ocean Dipole and El Niño Southern Oscillation as major drivers of coral cover on shallow reefs in the Andaman Sea.

Shallow reefs are a major feature of coral assemblages in the Andaman Sea. At Phuket, Thailand sheltered reefs are dominated by massive corals, together with an increasing abundance of branching species during favourable growth conditions. The growth of coral on these reefs is moderated by long-term increases in sea temperature and relative sea level but fluctuating decadal/intradecadal climate processes of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), which modulate sea level and temperature, are the main drivers of coral cover. In this study, the contribution of these two climate processes was identified and also quantified. Over a 34-year study of fluctuating coral cover, the three major reductions in cover in 1997, 2010 and 2019 were linked to overlapping positive IOD (pIOD) and El Niños in 1997 and 2019, and with an El Niño alone in 2010. Combined pIOD and El Niño depressed sea level was the major factor in reducing cover in 1997 while El Niño extreme sea temperatures were responsible for large reductions in 2010. In 2019, a bi-phasic pIOD and El Niño resulted in lowered cover at a time of both decreased sea level and high sea temperature. Under global warming scenarios, it is projected that extreme pIODs, such as those seen in 1997 and 2019, will occur more frequently while El Niño frequencies will continue to increase even after global mean temperature stabilization. In these circumstances, and with steadily rising background sea temperatures, the future risks to the shallow reefs of the Andaman Sea are substantial, despite any temporary respite gained from climate related or land subsidence sea-level rise. Such findings have wider implications for all reefs affected by climatic-driven sea-level depressions, particularly those around Indonesian shores where similar El-Niño-related reductions in coral cover have been reported.

Association between stroke occurrence and changes in atmospheric circulation.

BACKGROUND: The impact of weather on morbidity from stroke has been analysed in previous studies. As the risk of stroke was mostly associated with changing weather, the changes in the daily stroke occurrence may be associated with changes in atmospheric circulation. The aim of our study was to detect and evaluate the association between daily numbers of ischaemic strokes (ISs) and haemorrhagic strokes (HSs) and the teleconnection pattern. METHODS: The study was performed in Kaunas, Lithuania, from 2000 to 2010. The daily numbers of ISs, subarachnoid haemorrhages (SAHs), and intracerebral haemorrhages (ICHs) were obtained from the Kaunas Stroke Register. We evaluated the association between these types of stroke and the teleconnection pattern by applying Poisson regression and adjusting for the linear trend, month, and other weather variables. RESULTS: During the study period, we analysed 4038 cases (2226 men and 1812 women) of stroke. Of these, 3245 (80.4%) cases were ISs, 533 (13.2%) cases were ICHs, and 260 (6.4%) cases were SAHs. An increased risk of SAH was associated with a change in mean daily atmospheric pressure over 3.9 hPa (RR = 1.49, 95% CI 1.14-1.96), and a stronger El Niño event had a protective effect against SAHs (RR = 0.34, 95% CI 0.16-0.69). The risk of HS was positively associated with East Atlantic/West Russia indices (RR = 1.13, 95% CI 1.04-1.23). The risk of IS was negatively associated with the Arctic Oscillation index on the same day and on the previous day (RR = 0.97, p < 0.033). During November-March, the risk of HS was associated with a positive North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) (RR = 1.29, 95% CI 1.03-1.62), and the risk of IS was negatively associated with the NAO index (RR = 0.92, 95% CI 0.85-0.99). CONCLUSIONS: The results of our study provide new evidence that the North Atlantic Oscillation, Arctic Oscillation, East Atlantic/West Russia, and El Niño-Southern Oscillation pattern may affect the risk of stroke. The impact of these teleconnections is not identical for various types of stroke. Emergency services should be aware that specific weather conditions are more likely to prompt calls for more severe strokes.

Forest fire probability under ENSO conditions in a semi-arid region: a case study in Guanajuato.

Fires can pose a threat to forest ecosystems when those ecosystems are not fire-adapted or when forest community conditions make them vulnerable to wildfires. Thus, investigating fire-prone environmental conditions is urgently needed to create action plans that preserve these ecosystems. In this sense, climate variables can determine the environmental conditions favorable for forest fires. Our study confirms that vapor pressure deficit (VPD) is an essential climate indicator for forest fires, as it is related to maximum temperatures and low humidity, representing the stress conditions for vegetation prone to fires. This study explores the extent to which ENSO phases can modulate climatic conditions that lead to high VPD over Guanajuato, a semi-arid region in central Mexico, during the dry season (March-April-May). Using fire occurrence data from MODIS (2000-2019) and Landsat 5 (1998-1999), we developed a climatic probability model for the occurrence of forest fires using VPD estimated from ERA5 reanalysis for each ENSO phase. We found that VPD and the occurrence of forest fires were higher during El Niño than under Neutral and La Niña years, with a higher risk of forest fire occurrence in Guanajuato's southern region. This study concludes that it is necessary to implement regional and local fire management plans, especially where the largest number of natural protected areas is located.

Large-scale and local climatic controls on large herbivore productivity: implications for adaptive rangeland management.

Rangeland ecosystems worldwide are characterized by a high degree of uncertainty in precipitation, both within and across years. Such uncertainty creates challenges for livestock managers seeking to match herbivore numbers with forage availability to prevent vegetation degradation and optimize livestock production. Here, we assess variation in annual large herbivore production (LHP, kg/ha) across multiple herbivore densities over a 78-yr period (1940-2018) in a semiarid rangeland ecosystem (shortgrass steppe of eastern Colorado, USA) that has experienced several phase changes in global-level sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies, as measured by the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). We examined the influence of prevailing PDO phase, magnitude of late winter (February-April) ENSO, prior growing-season precipitation (prior April to prior September) and precipitation during the six months (prior October to current April) preceding the growing season on LHP. All of these are known prior to the start of the growing season in the shortgrass steppe and could potentially be used by livestock managers to adjust herbivore densities. Annual LHP was greater during warm PDO irrespective of herbivore density, while variance in LHP increased by 69% (moderate density) and 91% (high density) under cold-phase compared to warm-phase PDO. No differences in LHP attributed to PDO phase were observed with low herbivore density. ENSO effects on LHP, specifically La Niña, were more pronounced during cold-phase PDO years. High herbivore density increased LHP at a greater rate than at moderate and low densities with increasing fall and winter precipitation. Differential gain, a weighted measure of LHP under higher relative to lower herbivore densities, was sensitive to prevailing PDO phase, ENSO magnitude, and precipitation amounts from the prior growing season and current fall-winter season. Temporal hierarchical approaches using PDO, ENSO, and local-scale precipitation can enhance decision-making for flexible herbivore densities. Herbivore densities could be increased above recommended levels with lowered risk of negative returns for managers during warm-phase PDO to result in greater LHP and less variability. Conversely, during cold-phase PDO, managers should be cognizant of the additional influences of ENSO and prior fall-winter precipitation, which can help predict when to reduce herbivore densities and minimize risk of forage shortages.

Health policy impacts on malaria transmission in Costa Rica.

Costa Rica is near malaria elimination. This achievement has followed shifts in malaria health policy. Here, we evaluate the impacts that different health policies have had on malaria transmission in Costa Rica from 1913 to 2018. We identified regime shifts and used regression models to measure the impact of different health policies on malaria transmission in Costa Rica using annual case records. We found that vector control and prophylactic treatments were associated with a 50% malaria case reduction in 1929-1931 compared with 1913-1928. DDT introduction in 1946 was associated with an increase in annual malaria case reduction from 7.6% (1942-1946) to 26.4% (1947-1952). The 2006 introduction of 7-day supervised chloroquine and primaquine treatments was the most effective health policy between 1957 and 2018, reducing annual malaria cases by 98% (2009-2018) when compared with 1957-1968. We also found that effective malaria reduction policies have been sensitive to natural catastrophes and extreme climatic events, both of which have increased malaria transmission in Costa Rica. Currently, outbreaks follow malaria importation into vulnerable areas of Costa Rica. This highlights the need to timely diagnose and treat malaria, while improving living standards, in the affected areas.

El Niño and the shifting geography of cholera in Africa.

The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and other climate patterns can have profound impacts on the occurrence of infectious diseases ranging from dengue to cholera. In Africa, El Niño conditions are associated with increased rainfall in East Africa and decreased rainfall in southern Africa, West Africa, and parts of the Sahel. Because of the key role of water supplies in cholera transmission, a relationship between El Niño events and cholera incidence is highly plausible, and previous research has shown a link between ENSO patterns and cholera in Bangladesh. However, there is little systematic evidence for this link in Africa. Using high-resolution mapping techniques, we find that the annual geographic distribution of cholera in Africa from 2000 to 2014 changes dramatically, with the burden shifting to continental East Africa-and away from Madagascar and portions of southern, Central, and West Africa-where almost 50,000 additional cases occur during El Niño years. Cholera incidence during El Niño years was higher in regions of East Africa with increased rainfall, but incidence was also higher in some areas with decreased rainfall, suggesting a complex relationship between rainfall and cholera incidence. Here, we show clear evidence for a shift in the distribution of cholera incidence throughout Africa in El Niño years, likely mediated by El Niño's impact on local climatic factors. Knowledge of this relationship between cholera and climate patterns coupled with ENSO forecasting could be used to notify countries in Africa when they are likely to see a major shift in their cholera risk.

Surface chlorophyll anomalies associated with Indian Ocean Dipole and El Niño Southern Oscillation in North Indian Ocean: a case study of 2006-2007 event.

North Indian Ocean witnesses varied dynamical response due to independent climate modes such as Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD)/El Niño Southern Oscillations (ENSO) and their co-occurrences. These modes have a significant impact on ocean productivity, which in turn shows feedback for the strengthening of these patterns. Keeping this in view, the present work attempts to analyze the biological activity during the combined influence of positive IOD with El Niño during 2006-2007 event. To divulge the biological variability along with the dynamical response, the study includes intra-annual variability surface chlorophyll anomaly with D20 anomaly using satellite observations. Here, the individual role of IOD and ENSO on both surface chlorophyll and D20 is segregated through partial regression analysis for a period of 25 years (1993-2017). By the regression method, it can be seen varied chlorophyll response for the 2006-2007 event with the IOD forcing leads to the major spatial and temporal variability with positive anomalies in Eastern Equatorial Indian Ocean (EEIO) (generally oligotrophic), Northwestern Bay of Bengal (NWBoB), and Northwestern Arabian Sea (NAS2) where production begins in fall intermonsoon and peaks up during November. On the other hand, negative anomalies are observed around the southern tip of India (SBoB) and the Northern Arabian Sea (NAS1). While ENSO depicts the high surface chlorophyll variability in the Western Indian Ocean (WIO1, WIO2) with negative anomalies of surface chlorophyll. This study observed an asymmetric response of chlorophyll variability over the North Indian Ocean during the 1997-1998 and 2006-2007 events with a major influence of IOD mode compared with the El Niño. Therefore, understanding the chlorophyll anomalies during different climate modes will help us to better understand the interannual variability and improve the predictability of chlorophyll productivity regions.

Coastline variability of several Latin American cities alongside Pacific Ocean due to the unusual "Sea Swell" events of 2015.

This study aims to report the short-term coastline dynamics and inundation limits of coastal cities along the Eastern Pacific due to the sea swell events that occurred during April to May 2015. The multi-temporal satellite datasets from Landsat such as Enhanced Thematic Mapper (L7 ETM+) and Operational Land Imager/Thermal Infrared Sensor (L8 OLI/TIRS) of different periods before and after the swell events were used to identify the shoreline changes. The satellite images were pre-processed using ERDAS imagine 9.2, and the coastline was digitized in ArcGIS 10.4.1 for ten cities spread across from Mexico to Chile (in Pacific coast) using the spectral water indices, and the shoreline change rate and erosion/accretion pattern at each transect were estimated using the statistical parameters embedded in Digital Shoreline Analysis System (DSAS). The maximum erosion and accretion were observed in El Salvador (268 m) and Huatulco (Mexico) (115 m), respectively. Likewise, the maximum inundation was observed in El Salvador with 268 m and Acapulco (Mexico) with 254 m, and the tide gauge data suggest a possible relation to the bathymetry and the geomorphological conditions of the coast. Overall, the results indicate that the Eastern Pacific Ocean side sea swell events has led to extreme coastal flooding in recent years due to the increase in the mean sea level and the unpredictable variation in El Niño/Southern Oscillation events. Graphical abstract.

Direct and Indirect Effects-An Information Theoretic Perspective.

Information theoretic (IT) approaches to quantifying causal influences have experienced some popularity in the literature, in both theoretical and applied (e.g., neuroscience and climate science) domains. While these causal measures are desirable in that they are model agnostic and can capture non-linear interactions, they are fundamentally different from common statistical notions of causal influence in that they (1) compare distributions over the effect rather than values of the effect and (2) are defined with respect to random variables representing a cause rather than specific values of a cause. We here present IT measures of direct, indirect, and total causal effects. The proposed measures are unlike existing IT techniques in that they enable measuring causal effects that are defined with respect to specific values of a cause while still offering the flexibility and general applicability of IT techniques. We provide an identifiability result and demonstrate application of the proposed measures in estimating the causal effect of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation on temperature anomalies in the North American Pacific Northwest.

Proposing the solar-wind energy flux hypothesis as a driver of inter-annual variation in tropical tree reproductive effort.

PREMISE: The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) affects tropical environmental conditions, potentially altering ecosystem function as El Niño events interact with longer-term climate change. Anomalously warm equatorial Pacific Ocean temperatures affect rainfall and temperature throughout the tropics and coincide with altered leaf flush phenology and increased fruit production in wet tropical forests; however, the understanding of mechanisms underlying this pattern is limited. There is evidence that increases in tropical tree reproduction anticipate El Niño onset, motivating the continued search for a global driver of tropical angiosperm reproduction. We present the solar-wind energy flux hypothesis: that physical energy influx to the Earth's upper atmosphere and magnetosphere, generated by a positive anomaly in the solar wind preceding El Niño development, cues tropical trees to increase resource allocation to reproduction. METHODS: We test this hypothesis using 19 years of data from Luquillo, Puerto Rico, correlating them with measures of solar-wind energy. RESULTS: From 1994 to 2013, the solar-wind energy flux into Earth's magnetosphere (Ein ) was more strongly correlated with the number of species fruiting and flowering than the Niño 3.4 climate index, despite Niño 3.4 being previously identified as a driver of interannual increases in reproduction. CONCLUSIONS: Changes in the global magnetosphere and thermosphere conditions from increased solar-wind energy affect global atmospheric pressure and circulation patterns, principally by weakening the Walker circulation. We discuss the idea that these changes cue interannual increases in tropical tree reproduction and act through an unidentified mechanism that anticipates and synchronizes the reproductive output of the tropical trees with El Niño.

Reproductive consequences of climate variability in migratory birds: evidence for species-specific responses to spring phenology and cross-seasonal effects.

Climate change is altering global temperature and precipitation regimes, and the ability of species to respond to these changes could have serious implications for population dynamics. Flexible species may adjust breeding dates in response to advances in spring phenology. Furthermore, in migratory bird species, conditions experienced during the non-breeding season may have cross-seasonal effects during the subsequent breeding season. We evaluated species-specific responses to antecedent non-breeding (winter) and current breeding (spring) conditions. We used a data set composed of 21,230 duck nests from 164 sites in the Canadian Prairie Pothole Region, 1993-2011, to determine how environmental conditions influenced timing of nesting and subsequent nest survival in eight duck species representing varying life-histories. We tested how species responded in timing of nesting and nest survival, respectively, to El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions experienced during the preceding non-breeding season (winter; Dec-Feb), and spring (Mar-Jun) temperature and moisture conditions on the breeding grounds. Ducks tended to nest earlier in warmer springs; however, in El Niño winters, with warmer spring temperatures, nesting tended to be later. We did not find evidence for direct effects of environmental variables on nest survival; however, evidence of indirect effects of winter conditions on nest survival for some species via strong direct effects on timing of nesting provides new insights into mechanisms for cross-seasonal effects on reproductive success.

Coupling functions in climate.

We examine how coupling functions in the theory of dynamical systems provide a quantitative window into climate dynamics. Previously, we have shown that a one-dimensional periodic non-autonomous stochastic dynamical system can simulate the monthly statistics of surface air temperature data. Here, we expand this approach to two-dimensional dynamical systems to include interactions between two sub-systems of the climate. The relevant coupling functions are constructed from the covariance of the data from the two sub-systems. We demonstrate the method on two tropical climate indices, the El-Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), to interpret the mutual interactions between these two air-sea interaction phenomena in the Pacific and Indian Oceans. The coupling function reveals that the ENSO mainly controls the seasonal variability of the IOD during its mature phase. This demonstrates the plausibility of constructing a network model for the seasonal variability of climate systems based on such coupling functions. This article is part of the theme issue 'Coupling functions: dynamical interaction mechanisms in the physical, biological and social sciences'.

Impact of El Niño Southern Oscillation on infectious disease hospitalization risk in the United States.

Although the global climate is changing at an unprecedented rate, links between weather and infectious disease have received little attention in high income countries. The "El Niño Southern Oscillation" (ENSO) occurs irregularly and is associated with changing temperature and precipitation patterns. We studied the impact of ENSO on infectious diseases in four census regions in the United States. We evaluated infectious diseases requiring hospitalization using the US National Hospital Discharge Survey (1970-2010) and five disease groupings that may undergo epidemiological shifts with changing climate: (i) vector-borne diseases, (ii) pneumonia and influenza, (iii) enteric disease, (iv) zoonotic bacterial disease, and (v) fungal disease. ENSO exposure was based on the Multivariate ENSO Index. Distributed lag models, with adjustment for seasonal oscillation and long-term trends, were used to evaluate the impact of ENSO on disease incidence over lags of up to 12 mo. ENSO was associated more with vector-borne disease [relative risk (RR) 2.96, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.03-8.48] and less with enteric disease (0.73, 95% CI 0.62-0.87) in the Western region; the increase in vector-borne disease was attributable to increased risk of rickettsioses and tick-borne infectious diseases. By contrast, ENSO was associated with more enteric disease in non-Western regions (RR 1.12, 95% CI 1.02-1.15). The periodic nature of ENSO may make it a useful natural experiment for evaluation of the impact of climatic shifts on infectious disease risk. The impact of ENSO suggests that warmer temperatures and extreme variation in precipitation events influence risks of vector-borne and enteric disease in the United States.