Household transmission of Omicron variant of SARS-CoV-2 under conditions of hybrid immunity-a prospective study in Germany.

PURPOSE: We investigated the protection offered by vaccinations and previous infections for the household transmission of Omicron variant of SARS-CoV-2. METHODS: 34,666 participants of the German DigiHero cohort study with two or more household members were invited to a prospective household transmission study between June and December 2022. In case of a positive SARS-CoV-2 test in a household, symptom diaries were completed for at least 14 days. Dry blood spots (DBS) were taken from all household members at the beginning and six to eight weeks later. DBS were analyzed for SARS-CoV-2 antibodies. RESULTS: 1191 individuals from 457 households participated. The risk of acquiring a SARS-CoV-2 infection decreased with higher S-titer levels at the time of exposure (from 80% at titer of 0 binding antibody units (BAU)/ml to 20% at titer of 3000 BAU/ml) and increased linearly with the time since vaccination/previous infection (20% for less than one month to 80% at one year). Transmission probability was also reduced when the symptoms of the primary case were mild and if preventive measures were implemented. CONCLUSION: Vaccinations/previous infections offer a high protection against infection with the Omicron variant for a few months only, supporting the notion of seasonal circulation of the virus.

Measuring waning protection from seasonal influenza vaccination during nine influenza seasons, Ontario, Canada, 2010/11 to 2018/19.

BackgroundWaning immunity from seasonal influenza vaccination can cause suboptimal protection during peak influenza activity. However, vaccine effectiveness studies assessing waning immunity using vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals are subject to biases.AimWe examined the association between time since vaccination and laboratory-confirmed influenza to assess the change in influenza vaccine protection over time.MethodsUsing linked laboratory and health administrative databases in Ontario, Canada, we identified community-dwelling individuals aged ≥ 6 months who received an influenza vaccine before being tested for influenza by RT-PCR during the 2010/11 to 2018/19 influenza seasons. We estimated the adjusted odds ratio (aOR) for laboratory-confirmed influenza by time since vaccination (categorised into intervals) and for every 28 days.ResultsThere were 53,065 individuals who were vaccinated before testing for influenza, with 10,264 (19%) influenza-positive cases. The odds of influenza increased from 1.05 (95% CI: 0.91-1.22) at 42-69 days after vaccination and peaked at 1.27 (95% CI: 1.04-1.55) at 126-153 days when compared with the reference interval (14-41 days). This corresponded to 1.09-times increased odds of influenza every 28 days (aOR = 1.09; 95% CI: 1.04-1.15). Individuals aged 18-64 years showed the greatest decline in protection against influenza A(H1N1) (aORper 28 days = 1.26; 95% CI: 0.97-1.64), whereas for individuals aged ≥ 65 years, it was against influenza A(H3N2) (aORper 28 days = 1.20; 95% CI: 1.08-1.33). We did not observe evidence of waning vaccine protection for individuals aged < 18 years.ConclusionsInfluenza vaccine protection wanes during an influenza season. Understanding the optimal timing of vaccination could ensure robust protection during seasonal influenza activity.

Year-Round Respiratory Syncytial Virus Transmission in The Netherlands Following the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Prospective Nationwide Observational and Modeling Study.

We initiated a nationwide prospective study to monitor respiratory syncytial virus (RSV)-related pediatric hospitalizations in 46 hospitals throughout the Netherlands between May 2021 and August 2022. We showed year-round RSV transmission in the Netherlands after an initial 2021 summer outbreak. The pattern was unprecedented and distinct from neighboring countries. We extended a dynamic simulation model to evaluate the impact of waning immunity on pediatric RSV hospitalizations in the Netherlands using 4 different scenarios. Our results suggest that the observed continuous RSV transmission pattern could be associated with waning immunity due to the period of very low RSV circulation during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Impact of Vaccination, Prior Infection, and Therapy on Omicron Infection and Mortality.

BACKGROUND: Understanding immunity against Omicron infection and severe outcomes conferred by coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) vaccination, prior severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection, and monoclonal antibody therapy will inform intervention strategies. METHODS: We considered 295 691 patients tested for SARS-CoV-2 at Cleveland Clinic between 1 October 2021 and 31 January 2022. We used logistic regression to investigate the association of vaccination and prior infection with the risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection and used Cox regression to investigate the association of vaccination, prior infection, and monoclonal antibody therapy with the risks of intensive care unit (ICU) stay and death. RESULTS: Vaccination and prior infection were less effective against Omicron than Delta infection but provided strong protection against ICU admission and death. Boosting greatly increased vaccine effectiveness against Omicron infection and severe outcomes, although effectiveness waned rapidly over time. Monoclonal antibody therapy considerably reduced risks of ICU admission and death. The relatively low mortality of the Omicron variant was due to both reduced lethality of this variant and increased population immunity acquired from booster vaccination and previous infection. CONCLUSIONS: Booster vaccination and prior SARS-CoV-2 infection provide strong protection against ICU admission and death from Omicron infection. Monoclonal antibody therapy is also beneficial.

Durability of Immune Responses After Boosting in Ad26.COV2.S-Primed Healthcare Workers.

The emergence of SARS-CoV-2 variants raised questions regarding the durability of immune responses after homologous or heterologous boosters after Ad26.COV2.S-priming. We found that SARS-CoV-2-specific binding antibodies, neutralizing antibodies, and T cells are detectable 5 months after boosting, although waning of antibodies and limited cross-reactivity with Omicron BA.1 was observed.

Quantification of Waning Immunity After Measles Vaccination-Evidence From a Seroprevalence Study.

We aimed to quantify rates of waning immunity after measles vaccination from seroprevalence data collected in a study of a population with high vaccination coverage and a fixed vaccination schedule. Data were collected during a national survey (the Immunological Survey) carried out in the Slovak Republic in 2018. The average rate of waning immunity against measles after the first dose of measles, mumps, and rubella (MMR) vaccine (ages 1.5-10 years) was 9.7% per year from the geometric mean titer value of 2,634 mUI/mL. The average waning rate after the second dose of MMR vaccine (ages 10-33 years) was significantly lower: 4.8% per year from the lower geometric mean titer of 1,331 mUI/mL. This decline in antibody levels suggests that vaccine-induced protection may be compromised and results in an increase in the proportion of seronegative/borderline individuals. These outcomes may provide a valuable source for critical assessment of direct and indirect effects of MMR vaccination.

Neutralizing antibody responses 300 days after SARS-CoV-2 infection and induction of high antibody titers after vaccination.

Neutralizing antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 are important to protect against infection and/or disease. Using an assay to detect antibodies directed against the receptor binding domain (RBD) of SARS-CoV-2 Spike, we identified individuals with SARS-CoV-2 infection after an outbreak at a local health institution. All but one COVID-19 patient developed detectable anti-RBD antibodies and 77% had virus neutralizing antibody titers of >1:25. Antibody levels declined slightly over time. However, we still detected virus neutralizing antibody titers in 64% of the COVID-19 patients at >300 days after infection, demonstrating durability of neutralizing antibody levels after infection. Importantly, full COVID-19 vaccination of these individuals resulted in higher antibody titers compared to fully vaccinated individuals in the absence of prior infection. These data demonstrate long-lived antibody-mediated immunity after SARS-CoV-2 infection, and a clear benefit of two vaccine doses for recovered individuals.

Dynamics of Naturally Acquired Immunity Against Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 in Children and Adolescents.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the duration of protection against reinfection conferred by a previous severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection in children and adolescents. STUDY DESIGN: We applied 2 complementary approaches: a matched test-negative, case-control design and a retrospective cohort design. A total of 458 959 unvaccinated individuals aged 5-18 years were included. The analyses focused on the period July 1, 2021, to December 13, 2021, a period of Delta variant dominance in Israel. We evaluated 3 SARS-CoV-2-related outcomes: documented polymerase chain reaction-confirmed infection or reinfection, symptomatic infection or reinfection, and SARS-CoV-2-related hospitalization or death. RESULTS: Overall, children and adolescents who were previously infected acquired durable protection against reinfection with SARS-CoV-2 for at least 18 months. Importantly, no SARS-CoV-2-related deaths were recorded in either the SARS-CoV-2-naïve group or the previously infected group. The effectiveness of naturally acquired immunity against a recurrent infection reached 89.2% (95% CI, 84.7%-92.4%) at 3-6 months after the first infection and declined slightly to 82.5% (95% CI, 79.1%-85.3%) by 9-12 months after infection, with a slight nonsignificant waning trend seen up to 18 months after infection. Additionally, children aged 5-11 years exhibited no significant waning of naturally acquired protection throughout the outcome period, whereas waning protection in those aged 12-18 years was more prominent but still mild. CONCLUSIONS: Children and adolescents who were previously infected with SARS-CoV-2 remain protected to a high degree for 18 months. Further research is needed to examine naturally acquired immunity against Omicron and newer emerging variants.

Projecting the COVID-19 immune landscape in Japan in the presence of waning immunity and booster vaccination.

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) booster vaccination has been implemented globally in the midst of surges in infection due to the Delta and Omicron variants of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). The objective of the present study was to present a framework to estimate the proportion of the population that is immune to symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection with the Omicron variant (immune proportion) in Japan, considering the waning of immunity resulting from vaccination and naturally acquired infection. We quantified the decay rate of immunity against symptomatic infection with Omicron conferred by the second and third doses of COVID-19 vaccine. We estimated the current and future vaccination coverage for the second and third vaccine doses from February 17, 2021 to August 1, 2022 and used data on the confirmed COVID-19 incidence from February 17, 2021 to April 10, 2022. From this information, we estimated the age-specific immune proportion over the period from February 17, 2021 to August 1, 2022. Vaccine-induced immunity, conferred by the second vaccine dose in particular, was estimated to rapidly wane. There were substantial variations in the estimated immune proportion by age group because each age cohort experienced different vaccination rollout timing and speed as well as a different infection risk. Such variations collectively contributed to heterogeneous immune landscape trajectories over time and age. The resulting prediction of the proportion of the population that is immune to symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection could aid decision-making on when and for whom another round of booster vaccination should be considered. This manuscript was submitted as part of a theme issue on "Modelling COVID-19 and Preparedness for Future Pandemics".

Determination of significant immunological timescales from mRNA-LNP-based vaccines in humans.

A compartment model for an in-host liquid nanoparticle delivered mRNA vaccine is presented. Through non-dimensionalisation, five timescales are identified that dictate the lifetime of the vaccine in-host: decay of interferon gamma, antibody priming, autocatalytic growth, antibody peak and decay, and interleukin cessation. Through asymptotic analysis we are able to obtain semi-analytical solutions in each of the time regimes which allows us to predict maximal concentrations and better understand parameter dependence in the model. We compare our model to 22 data sets for the BNT162b2 and mRNA-1273 mRNA vaccines demonstrating good agreement. Using our analysis, we estimate the values for each of the five timescales in each data set and predict maximal concentrations of plasma B-cells, antibody, and interleukin. Through our comparison, we do not observe any discernible differences between vaccine candidates and sex. However, we do identify an age dependence, specifically that vaccine activation takes longer and that peak antibody occurs sooner in patients aged 55 and greater.

A perturbative approach to the analysis of many-compartment models characterized by the presence of waning immunity.

The waning of immunity after recovery or vaccination is a major factor accounting for the severity and prolonged duration of an array of epidemics, ranging from COVID-19 to diphtheria and pertussis. To study the effectiveness of different immunity level-based vaccination schemes in mitigating the impact of waning immunity, we construct epidemiological models that mimic the latter's effect. The total susceptible population is divided into an arbitrarily large number of discrete compartments with varying levels of disease immunity. We then vaccinate various compartments within this framework, comparing the value of [Formula: see text] and the equilibria locations for our systems to determine an optimal immunization scheme under natural constraints. Relying on perturbative analysis, we establish a number of results concerning the location, existence, and uniqueness of the system's endemic equilibria, as well as results on disease-free equilibria. We use numerical techniques to supplement our analytical ones, applying our model to waning immunity dynamics in pertussis, among other diseases. Our analytical results are applicable to a wide range of systems composed of arbitrarily many ODEs.

An interregional measles outbreak in Spain with nosocomial transmission, November 2017 to July 2018.

Given sustained high vaccination coverage and enhanced surveillance for measles, Spain has been free of endemic measles transmission since 2014, achieving elimination certification from the World Health Organization in 2017. In November 2017, measles was introduced through an imported case travelling to the Valencian Community, causing an interregional outbreak. Here, we describe the outbreak using data reported to the national epidemiological surveillance network. The outbreak involved 154 cases (67 males, 87 females) notified in four regions; 148 were laboratory-confirmed and six epidemiologically linked. Most cases were adults aged 30-39 (n = 62, 40.3%) years. Sixty-two cases were hospitalised (40.3%) and 35 presented complications (22.7%). Two thirds of the cases (n = 102) were unvaccinated including 11 infants (≤ 1 year) not yet eligible for vaccination. The main route of transmission was nosocomial; at least six healthcare facilities and 41 healthcare workers and support personnel were affected. Sequencing of the viral nucleoprotein C-terminus (N450) identified genotype B3, belonging to the circulating MVs/Dublin.IRL/8.16-variant. Control measures were implemented, and the outbreak was contained in July 2018. The outbreak highlighted that raising awareness about measles and improving the vaccination coverage in under-vaccinated subgroups and personnel of healthcare facilities are key measures for prevention of future outbreaks.

COVID-19 vaccines effectiveness against symptomatic disease and severe outcomes, 2021-2022: a test-negative case-control study.

OBJECTIVES: This study evaluated the effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines in preventing symptomatic and severe disease. STUDY DESIGN: This was an observational test-negative case-control study. METHODS: Study participants were adults with at least one symptom included in the World Health Organization COVID-19 definition who sought health care in a public emergency department between 1 November 2021 and 2 March 2022 (corresponding with the fifth pandemic wave in Portugal dominated by the Omicron variant). This study used multivariable logistic regression models to estimate and compare the odds ratio of vaccination between test-positive cases and test-negative controls to calculate the absolute and relative vaccine effectiveness. RESULTS: The study included 1059 individuals (522 cases and 537 controls) with a median age of 56 years and 58% were women. Compared with the effectiveness of the primary vaccination scheme that had been completed ≥180 days earlier, the relative effectiveness against symptomatic infection of a booster administered between 14 and 132 days earlier was 71% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 57%, 81%; P < 0.001). The effectiveness of the primary series against symptomatic infection peaked at 85% (95% CI: 56%, 95%) between 14 and 90 days after the last inoculation and decreased to 34% (95% CI: -43%, 50%) after ≥180 days. CONCLUSIONS: Despite the known immunological evasion characteristics of the Omicron variant, results from this study show that vaccine effectiveness increases after booster administration. COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness decreases to less than 50% between 3 and 6 months after completion of the primary cycle; therefore, this would be an appropriate time to administer a booster to restore immunity.

Unraveling the dynamics of the Omicron and Delta variants of the 2019 coronavirus in the presence of vaccination, mask usage, and antiviral treatment.

The effectiveness of control interventions against COVID-19 is threatened by the emergence of SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern. We present a mathematical model for studying the transmission dynamics of two of these variants (Delta and Omicron) in the United States, in the presence of vaccination, treatment of individuals with clinical symptoms of the disease and the use of face masks. The model is parameterized and cross-validated using observed daily case data for COVID-19 in the United States for the period from November 2021 (when Omicron first emerged) to March 2022. Rigorous qualitative analysis of the model shows that the disease-free equilibrium of the model is locally-asymptotically stable when the control reproduction number of the model (denoted by R c ) is less than one. This equilibrium is shown to be globally-asymptotically stable for a special case of the model, where disease-induced mortality is negligible and both vaccine-derived immunity in fully-vaccinated individuals and natural immunity do not wane, when the associated reproduction number is less than one. The epidemiological implication of the latter result is that the combined vaccination-boosting strategy can lead to the elimination of the pandemic if its implementation can bring (and maintain) the associated reproduction number to a value less than one. An analytical expression for the vaccine-derived herd immunity threshold is derived. Using this expression, together with the baseline values of the parameters of the parameterized model, we showed that the vaccine-derived herd immunity can be achieved in the United States (so that the pandemic will be eliminated) if at least 68 % of the population is fully-vaccinated with two of the three vaccines approved for use in the United States (Pfizer or Moderna vaccine). Furthermore, this study showed (as of the time of writing in March 2022) that the control reproduction number of the Omicron variant was approximately 3.5 times that of the Delta variant (the reproduction of the latter is computed to be ≈ 0.2782 ), indicating that Delta had practically died out and that Omicron has competitively-excluded Delta (to become the predominant variant in the United States). Based on our analysis and parameterization at the time of writing of this paper (March 2022), our study suggests that SARS-CoV-2 elimination is feasible by June 2022 if the current baseline level of the coverage of fully-vaccinated individuals is increased by about 20 % . The prospect of pandemic elimination is significantly improved if vaccination is combined with a face mask strategy that prioritizes moderately effective and high-quality masks. Having a high percentage of the populace wearing the moderately-effective surgical mask is more beneficial to the community than having low percentage of the populace wearing the highly-effective N95 masks. We showed that waning natural and vaccine-derived immunity (if considered individually) offer marginal impact on disease burden, except for the case when they wane at a much faster rate (e.g., within three months), in comparison to the baseline (estimated to be within 9 months to a year). Treatment of symptomatic individuals has marginal effect in reducing daily cases of SARS-CoV-2, in comparison to the baseline, but it has significant impact in reducing daily hospitalizations. Furthermore, while treatment significantly reduces daily hospitalizations (and, consequently, deaths), the prospects of COVID-19 elimination in the United States are significantly enhanced if investments in control resources are focused on mask usage and vaccination rather than on treatment.

In Elimination Settings, Measles Antibodies Wane After Vaccination but Not After Infection: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

BACKGROUND: We conducted a systematic review to assess whether measles humoral immunity wanes in previously infected or vaccinated populations in measles elimination settings. METHODS: After screening 16 822 citations, we identified 9 articles from populations exposed to wild-type measles and 16 articles from vaccinated populations that met our inclusion criteria. RESULTS: Using linear regression, we found that geometric mean titers (GMTs) decreased significantly in individuals who received 2 doses of measles-containing vaccine (MCV) by 121.8 mIU/mL (95% confidence interval [CI], -212.4 to -31.1) per year since vaccination over 1 to 5 years, 53.7 mIU/mL (95% CI, -95.3 to -12.2) 5 to 10 years, 33.2 mIU/mL (95% CI, -62.6 to -3.9), 10 to 15 years, and 24.1 mIU/mL (95% CI, -51.5 to 3.3) 15 to 20 years since vaccination. Decreases in GMT over time were not significant after 1 dose of MCV or after infection. Decreases in the proportion of seropositive individuals over time were not significant after 1 or 2 doses of MCV or after infection. CONCLUSIONS: Measles antibody waning in vaccinated populations should be considered in planning for measles elimination.

Comparative Effectiveness of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Vaccines Against the Delta Variant.

BACKGROUND: There is a lack of data regarding how the Delta variant of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has impacted the effectiveness of the BNT162b2 (Pfizer-BioNTech), mRNA-1273 (Moderna), and Ad26.COV2.S (Johnson & Johnson-Janssen) vaccines at preventing severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection and COVID-19 hospitalization. METHODS: We compared the effectiveness of the three vaccines during the pre- and post-Delta variant period (before and after 1 July 2021) in a large cohort of vaccinated and unvaccinated patients in the Michigan Medicine healthcare system. We assessed vaccine effectiveness (VE) using 2 analyses: an inverse propensity weighted (IPW) Kaplan-Meier (KM) analysis based on time from vaccination, and a Cox model based on calendar time with vaccination as a time-varying covariate. RESULTS: Compared to Ad26.COV2.S recipients, the risk of hospitalization for COVID-19 in the post-Delta variant period was lower for BNT162b2 recipients (hazard ratio [HR] = 0.37; 95% confidence interval [CI]: [.14-.98]; P = .05) and mRNA-1273 recipients (HR = 0.21; 95% CI: [.07-.64]; P = .006). Recipients of the mRNA-1273 vaccine had a lower risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection than Ad26.COV2.S recipients (HR = 0.6; 95% CI: [.43-.83]; P = .003) and BNT162b2 recipients (HR = 0.64; 95% CI: [.54-.76]; P < .001). After 1 July, efficacy against SARS-CoV-2 infection declined for Ad26.COV2.S recipients (VE = 76% before; VE = 49% after; P = .02), BNT162b2 recipients (VE = 87% before; VE = 52% after; P < .001), and mRNA-1273 recipients (VE = 92% before; VE = 70% after; P < .001). Waning immunity and the Delta variant contributed independently and significantly to this decline. CONCLUSIONS: Although there is a substantial decline in effectiveness, the approved COVID-19 vaccines remain effective against infection and hospitalization due to the Delta variant. The mRNA-based vaccines are more effective than the Ad26.COV2.S vaccine.

Seroresponse to Inactivated and Recombinant Influenza Vaccines Among Maintenance Hemodialysis Patients.

RATIONALE & OBJECTIVE: High-dose influenza vaccine provides better protection against influenza infection in older adults than standard-dose vaccine. We compared vaccine seroresponse among hemodialysis patients over a period of 4 months after administration of high-dose trivalent inactivated (HD-IIV3), standard-dose quadrivalent inactivated (SD-IIV4), or quadrivalent recombinant quadrivalent (RIV4) influenza vaccine. STUDY DESIGN: Prospective observational study. SETTING & PARTICIPANTS: Patients at 4 hemodialysis clinics who received influenza vaccine. EXPOSURE: Type of influenza vaccine. OUTCOME: Hemagglutination inhibition (HI) titers were measured at baseline and at 1, 2, 3, and 4 months after vaccination. The primary outcome was seroprotection rates at HI titers of at least 1:40 and at least 1:160 (antibody levels providing protection from infection in approximately 50% and 95% of immunocompetent individuals, respectively) at 1, 2, 3, and 4 months after vaccination. ANALYTICAL APPROACH: We calculated geometric mean titer as well as seroprotection and seroconversion rates. Adjusted generalized linear models with additional trend analyses were performed to evaluate the association between vaccine type and outcomes. RESULTS: 254 hemodialysis patients were vaccinated against influenza with HD-IIV3 (n = 141), SD-IIV4 (n = 36), or RIV4 (n = 77). A robust initial seroresponse to influenza A strains was observed after all 3 vaccines. Geometric mean titer and seroprotection (HI titer ≥1:160) rates against influenza A strains were higher and more sustained with HD-IIV3 than SD-IIV4 or RIV4. More than 80% of patients vaccinated with HD-IIV3 were seroprotected (HI titer ≥1:160) at month 4 (P < 0.001), whereas, among patients vaccinated with SD-IIV4 or RIV4, seroprotection rates were similar to those at baseline. Seroprotection rates were lower against B strains for all vaccines. LIMITATIONS: Because of the use of observational data, bias from unmeasured confounders may exist. Some age subgroups were small in number. Clinical outcome data were not available. CONCLUSIONS: Hemodialysis patients exhibited high seroprotection rates after all 3 influenza vaccines. The seroresponse waned more slowly with HD-IIV3 compared with SD-IIV4 and RIV4 vaccines.

SARS-CoV-2 vaccine effectiveness against infection, symptomatic and severe COVID-19: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: The temporal evolution of SARS-CoV-2 vaccine efficacy and effectiveness (VE) against infection, symptomatic, and severe COVID-19 is incompletely defined. The temporal evolution of VE could be dependent on age, vaccine types, variants of the virus, and geographic region. We aimed to conduct a systematic review and meta-analysis of the duration of VE against SARS-CoV-2 infection, symptomatic COVID-19 and severe COVID-19. METHODS: MEDLINE, Scopus, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, the World Health Organization Global Literature on Coronavirus Disease, and CoronaCentral databases were searched and studies were selected. Independent reviewers selected randomized controlled trials and cohort studies with the outcome of interest. Independent reviewers extracted data, and assessed the risk of bias. Meta-analysis was performed with the DerSimonian-Laird random-effects model with Hartung-Knapp-Sidik-Jonkman variance correction. The GRADE (Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development and Evaluation) approach was used to assess certainty (quality) of the evidence. Primary outcomes included VE as a function of time against SARS-CoV-2 infection, symptomatic and severe COVID-19. RESULTS: Eighteen studies were included representing nearly 7 million individuals. VE against all SARS-CoV-2 infections declined from 83% in the first month after completion of the original vaccination series to 22% at 5 months or longer. Similarly, VE against symptomatic COVID-19 declined from 94% in the first month after vaccination to 64% by the fourth month. VE against severe COVID-19 for all ages was high overall, with the level being 90% (95% CI, 87-92%) at five months or longer after being fully vaccinated. VE against severe COVID-19 was lower in individuals ≥ 65 years and those who received Ad26.COV2.S. CONCLUSIONS: VE against SARS-CoV-2 infection and symptomatic COVID-19 waned over time but protection remained high against severe COVID-19. These data can be used to inform public health decisions around the need for booster vaccination.

Bistability in deterministic and stochastic SLIAR-type models with imperfect and waning vaccine protection.

Various vaccines have been approved for use to combat COVID-19 that offer imperfect immunity and could furthermore wane over time. We analyze the effect of vaccination in an SLIARS model with demography by adding a compartment for vaccinated individuals and considering disease-induced death, imperfect and waning vaccination protection as well as waning infections-acquired immunity. When analyzed as systems of ordinary differential equations, the model is proven to admit a backward bifurcation. A continuous time Markov chain (CTMC) version of the model is simulated numerically and compared to the results of branching process approximations. While the CTMC model detects the presence of the backward bifurcation, the branching process approximation does not. The special case of an SVIRS model is shown to have the same properties.

Direct Observation of Repeated Infections With Endemic Coronaviruses.

BACKGROUND: Although the mechanisms of adaptive immunity to pandemic severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) are still unknown, the immune response to the widespread endemic coronaviruses HKU1, 229E, NL63, and OC43 provide a useful reference for understanding repeat infection risk. METHODS: Here we used data from proactive sampling carried out in New York City from fall 2016 to spring 2018. We combined weekly nasal swab collection with self-reports of respiratory symptoms from 191 participants to investigate the profile of recurring infections with endemic coronaviruses. RESULTS: During the study, 12 individuals tested positive multiple times for the same coronavirus. We found no significant difference between the probability of testing positive at least once and the probability of a recurrence for the betacoronaviruses HKU1 and OC43 at 34 weeks after enrollment/first infection. We also found no significant association between repeat infections and symptom severity, but found strong association between symptom severity and belonging to the same family. CONCLUSIONS: This study provides evidence that reinfections with the same endemic coronavirus are not atypical in a time window shorter than 1 year and that the genetic basis of innate immune response may be a greater determinant of infection severity than immune memory acquired after a previous infection.