Migration as a Vector of Economic Losses From Disaster-Affected Areas in the United States.

We introduce the consideration of human migration into research on economic losses from extreme weather disasters. Taking a comparative case study approach and using data from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York/Equifax Consumer Credit Panel, we document the size of economic losses attributable to migration from 23 disaster-affected areas in the United States before, during, and after some of the most costly hurricanes, tornadoes, and wildfires on record. We then employ demographic standardization and decomposition to determine if these losses primarily reflect changes in out-migration or the economic resources that migrants take with them. Finally, we consider the implications of these losses for changing spatial inequality in the United States. While disaster-affected areas and their populations differ in their experiences of and responses to extreme weather disasters, we generally find that, relative to the year before an extreme weather disaster, economic losses via migration from disaster-affected areas increase the year of and after the disaster, these changes primarily reflect changes in out-migration (vs. the economic resources that migrants take with them), and these losses briefly disrupt the status quo by temporarily reducing spatial inequality.

After Experiencing a Tornado: Adolescents' Longitudinal Trajectories in Posttraumatic Growth and Their Association with Posttraumatic Stress Symptoms.

This study investigated the trajectories in posttraumatic growth (PTG) among adolescents who survived from the Yancheng tornado in China, and explored the effects of posttraumatic stress symptoms (PTSS) on these trajectories. Participants (n = 246) finished 4 assessments at 6, 9, 12, and 18 months after the tornado. Growth mixture model and logistic regression were used to examine the heterogeneous trajectories and the role of PTSS for differentiating trajectories respectively. Two latent PTG trajectories were observed: group with decreasing PTG and group with fluctuant PTG, which might stem from the illusory component and the factual component of PTG respectively based on the two-component model; and adolescents with more PTSS had higher probabilities generating decreasing PTG, that is, illusory PTG. This study suggested differentiating PTG trajectories and related influencing factors to improve the post-disaster psychological interventions in a longitudinal perspective.

An alert from the present to the future: The impact of environmental disasters on health of children and adolescents.

Storms unleashed devastating tornadoes southern United States. National Weather Service maps revealed one supercell, which may have been a single tornado or a cluster. One of the most devastated sites is the southwestern Kentucky city of Mayfield. In Warren County, where about 12 people were killed, including several children, the process of identifying victims has been slowed because the people who could make those identifications are themselves recovering from injuries sustained in the storm. There's a lot of people injured and in hospitals. The death toll from the devastating tornado outbreak that ripped across six states last weekend held steady at 88 on Tuesday, including at least 13 children. Two-month-old baby was confirmed dead.

Don't Let the Tornado Get You! The Effects of Agency Assignment and Self-Construal on Responses to Tornado Preparedness Messages.

This experiment explores the effects of agency assignment and self-construal on responses to tornado preparedness messages. Participants (N = 276) were randomly assigned to one of four conditions crossing agency assignment and self-construal. Results found threat agency associated with greater perceived susceptibility and tornado threat, whereas self-construal was primarily associated with perceived threat severity, such that those primed with interdependent self-construal showed marginally increased perceptions of tornado severity relative to those primed with independent self-construal. Self-construal did not appear to moderate the effects of agency assignment on attitudes or behavioral intentions. Results are discussed in light of potential psychological reactance, suggesting human agency assignment should be used cautiously, since it may pose an increased threat to perceived freedoms in certain instances. Moreover, combining human agency and independent self-construal may trigger negative cognitions directed toward the message and/or its source. It is concluded that cautious, strategic use of agency assignment can improve message acceptance and facilitate adaptive, preparedness actions.

The lodging of crops by tornadoes.

It is well known that tornadoes passing over fields can cause significant damage to crops, and tornado tracks of fallen, or lodged, crops can extend for many hundreds of metres. An examination of photographic evidence of such events suggests that, at least for low speed EF0/EF1 events, lodging occurs beneath tornadoes primarily due to a strong radial flow (rather than circumferential flow) at the canopy surface. In order to investigate this effect further, a simple model of a tornado has been developed which, whilst fully satisfying the three dimensional Euler equations, models a circumferential flow at the edge of the tornado boundary layer near the ground, which becomes a radial flow as the ground is approached. This model is then used in a generalised model of lodging to predict lodging track widths and crop fall directions. It is shown that, when expressed in a suitably normalised form, both lodging width and crop fall direction are functions of a normalised translational velocity and a normalised crop lodging velocity. The lodging patterns are of two forms - a forward convergence (FC) where the cropfall converges on the tornado track in a forward direction, and a backward convergence (BC) where the convergence is in the opposite direction to tornado translations. Regions of FC and BC in the normalised parameter plane are calculated. These patterns are very similar to those observed in the field, which gives some confidence in the nature of the model. The model is then used to investigate the sensitivity of lodging width to crop and tornado parameters, and also to carry out a risk analysis to determine the probability distributions of lodging width for specified distributions of crop and tornado parameters.

Natural Hazards, Disasters, and Demographic Change: The Case of Severe Tornadoes in the United States, 1980-2010.

Natural hazards and disasters distress populations and inflict damage on the built environment, but existing studies yielded mixed results regarding their lasting demographic implications. I leverage variation across three decades of block group exposure to an exogenous and acute natural hazard-severe tornadoes-to focus conceptually on social vulnerability and to empirically assess local net demographic change. Using matching techniques and a difference-in-difference estimator, I find that severe tornadoes result in no net change in local population size but lead to compositional changes, whereby affected neighborhoods become more White and socioeconomically advantaged. Moderation models show that the effects are exacerbated for wealthier communities and that a federal disaster declaration does not mitigate the effects. I interpret the empirical findings as evidence of a displacement process by which economically disadvantaged residents are forcibly mobile, and economically advantaged and White locals rebuild rather than relocate. To make sense of demographic change after natural hazards, I advance an unequal replacement of social vulnerability framework that considers hazard attributes, geographic scale, and impacted local context. I conclude that the natural environment is consequential for the sociospatial organization of communities and that a disaster declaration has little impact on mitigating this driver of neighborhood inequality.

Caregiver-adolescent co-reminiscing and adolescents' individual recollections of a devastating tornado: Associations with enduring posttraumatic stress symptoms.

Although disaster-related posttraumatic stress symptoms (PTSS) typically decrease in intensity over time, some youth continue to report elevated levels of PTSS many years after the disaster. The current study examines two processes that may help to explain the link between disaster exposure and enduring PTSS: caregiver emotion socialization and youth recollection qualities. One hundred and twenty-two youth (ages 12 to 17) and their female caregivers who experienced an EF-4 tornado co-reminisced about the event, and adolescents provided independent recollections between 3 and 4 years after the tornado. Adolescent individual transcripts were coded for coherence and negative personal impact, qualities that have been found to contribute to meaning making. Parent-adolescent conversations were coded for caregiver egocentrism, a construct derived from the emotion socialization literature to reflect the extent to which the caregiver centered the conversation on her own emotions and experiences. Egocentrism predicted higher youth PTSS, and this association was mediated by the coherence of adolescents' narratives. The association between coherence and PTSS was stronger for youth who focused more on the negative personal impacts of the tornado event during their recollections. Results suggest that enduring tornado-related PTSS may be influenced in part by the interplay of caregiver emotion socialization practices and youth recollection qualities.

Women's experiences across disasters: a study of two towns in Texas, United States.

Gender, although gaining attention, remains under-researched in disaster risk reduction protocols and response and recovery efforts. This study examines women's experiences of two disasters in small towns in the United States, utilising qualitative interviews with residents of Granbury and West, Texas, during the first year of disaster recovery. Granbury was struck by an EF-4 tornado on 15 May 2013, whereas an explosion occurred at a local fertiliser facility in West on 17 April 2013. The paper explores how women's experiences of inter-gender power dynamics in decision-making, the prioritisation of childcare, and women's participation in the community affect their post-disaster recovery. Previous research highlights different forms of human response and recovery vis-à-vis 'natural' and technological disasters, with less attention paid to gender differences. The results point to the persistent, and similar, effect of gender stratification on women's experiences across different types of disasters in the US and the continued importance of gender-sensitive disaster policies and programmes.

Intrusive Rumination, Deliberate Rumination, and Posttraumatic Growth Among Adolescents After a Tornado: The Role of Social Support.

Posttraumatic growth (PTG) may exist in trauma survivors, especially adolescents, whereas rumination is a typical cognitive characteristic among traumatized individuals. However, there were mixed relationships between rumination (intrusive rumination, deliberate rumination) and PTG. The study aimed to increase understanding of the relationships between them by investigating the role of social support among adolescents after the Yancheng tornado. Four hundred forty-three middle school students in the core area of the tornado were administered a revised social support scale based on Furman and Buhrmester's Network of Relationships Inventory, Event-Related Rumination Inventory, and Posttraumatic Growth Inventory. Results showed a nonsignificant relationship between intrusive rumination and PTG, whereas a positive relationship was found between deliberate rumination and PTG. Moreover, social support did not moderate the relationship between intrusive rumination and PTG, but it significantly mediated the relationship between deliberate rumination and PTG. Clinical implications on trauma intervention and limitations as well as future research directions were discussed.

Factors associated with injuries among tornado victims in Yancheng and Chifeng, China.

BACKGROUND: As extremely violent meteorological disasters, tornadoes often cause serious casualties. The study aims to analyze the characteristics and causes of tornado injuries in China under certain humanistic and geographical conditions. METHODS: A random sampling questionnaire survey was developed and distributed to tornado victims from two separate occurrences: an Enhanced Fujita 4 tornado in Yancheng, and a Fujita 3 tornado in Chifeng. The information of demographic characteristics, disaster environment, and individual behaviors in victims was collected. Chi-square test and binary logistic regression were used to analyze influencing factor of injuries. RESULTS: A total of 94 valid questionnaires (participation rate 95.9%) were finally collected in Yancheng tornado and 67 valid questionnaires (participation rate 93.1%) in Chifeng tornado. Residents' annual income (OR = 0.10, 95% CI 0.02-0.50, P = 0.005), degree of house collapse (OR = 183.12, 95% CI 8.04-4173.34, P = 0.001) have a significant impact on the probability of injury. Differences in tornado disaster drill awareness (P = 0.009), individual behaviors (P = 0.011) and fear level (P = 0.011) significantly affected the incidence of trauma. Whether victims were indoors or not has no statistical difference on injuries in China. CONCLUSIONS: Our study clarifies risk factors and is conducive to the expansion of the investigation in tornado casualties. The government should improve the wind-resistance of residential buildings. Victims should participate in disaster prevention drills to take effective disaster avoidance actions.

Perceptions and Expected Immediate Reactions to Severe Storm Displays.

The National Weather Service has adopted warning polygons that more specifically indicate the risk area than its previous county-wide warnings. However, these polygons are not defined in terms of numerical strike probabilities (ps ). To better understand people's interpretations of warning polygons, 167 participants were shown 23 hypothetical scenarios in one of three information conditions-polygon-only (Condition A), polygon + tornadic storm cell (Condition B), and polygon + tornadic storm cell + flanking nontornadic storm cells (Condition C). Participants judged each polygon's ps and reported the likelihood of taking nine different response actions. The polygon-only condition replicated the results of previous studies; ps was highest at the polygon's centroid and declined in all directions from there. The two conditions displaying storm cells differed from the polygon-only condition only in having ps just as high at the polygon's edge nearest the storm cell as at its centroid. Overall, ps values were positively correlated with expectations of continuing normal activities, seeking information from social sources, seeking shelter, and evacuating by car. These results indicate that participants make more appropriate ps judgments when polygons are presented in their natural context of radar displays than when they are presented in isolation. However, the fact that ps judgments had moderately positive correlations with both sheltering (a generally appropriate response) and evacuation (a generally inappropriate response) suggests that experiment participants experience the same ambivalence about these two protective actions as people threatened by actual tornadoes.

Effect of Providing the Uncertainty Information About a Tornado Occurrence on the Weather Recipients' Cognition and Protective Action: Probabilistic Hazard Information Versus Deterministic Warnings.

Currently, a binary alarm system is used in the United States to issue deterministic warning polygons in case of tornado events. To enhance the effectiveness of the weather information, a likelihood alarm system, which uses a tool called probabilistic hazard information (PHI), is being developed at National Severe Storms Laboratory to issue probabilistic information about the threat. This study aims to investigate the effects of providing the uncertainty information about a tornado occurrence through the PHI's graphical swath on laypeople's concern, fear, and protective action, as compared with providing the warning information with the deterministic polygon. The displays of color-coded swaths and deterministic polygons were shown to subjects. Some displays had a blue background denoting the probability of any tornado formation in the general area. Participants were asked to report their levels of concern, fear, and protective action at randomly chosen locations within each of seven designated levels on each display. Analysis of a three-stage nested design showed that providing the uncertainty information via the PHI would appropriately increase recipients' levels of concern, fear, and protective action in highly dangerous scenarios, with a more than 60% chance of being affected by the threat, as compared with deterministic polygons. The blue background and the color-coding type did not have a significant effect on the people's cognition of the threat and reaction to it. This study shows that using a likelihood alarm system leads to more conscious decision making by the weather information recipients and enhances the system safety.

All-Cause Hospital Admissions Among Older Adults After a Natural Disaster.

STUDY OBJECTIVE: We characterize hospital admissions among older adults for any cause in the 30 days after a significant natural disaster in the United States. The main outcome was all-cause hospital admissions in the 30 days after natural disaster. Separate analyses were conducted to examine all-cause hospital admissions excluding the 72 hours after the disaster, ICU admissions, all-cause inhospital mortality, and admissions by state. METHODS: A self-controlled case series analysis using the 2011 Medicare Provider and Analysis Review was conducted to examine exposure to natural disaster by elderly adults located in zip codes affected by tornadoes during the 2011 southeastern superstorm. Spatial data of tornado events were obtained from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Severe Report database, and zip code data were obtained from the US Census Bureau. RESULTS: All-cause hospital admissions increased by 4% for older adults in the 30 days after the April 27, 2011, tornadoes (incidence rate ratio 1.04; 95% confidence interval 1.01 to 1.07). When the first 3 days after the disaster that may have been attributed to immediate injuries were excluded, hospitalizations for any cause also remained higher than when compared with the other 11 months of the year (incidence rate ratio 1.04; 95% confidence interval 1.01 to 1.07). There was no increase in ICU admissions or inhospital mortality associated with the natural disaster. When data were examined by individual states, Alabama, which had the highest number of persons affected, had a 9% increase in both hospitalizations and ICU admissions. CONCLUSION: When all time-invariant characteristics were controlled for, this natural disaster was associated with a significant increase in all-cause hospitalizations. This analysis quantifies acute care use after disasters through examining all-cause hospitalizations and represents an important contribution to building models of resilience-the ability to recover from a disaster-and hospital surge capacity.

Resilience, Posttraumatic Stress Symptoms, and Posttraumatic Growth in Chinese Adolescents After a Tornado: The Role of Mediation Through Perceived Social Support.

Previous studies have shown that resilience is associated with lower severity of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) and more posttraumatic growth (PTG) in people who have experienced traumatic events. The present study investigated the ways in which resilience is related to PTSD symptoms and to PTG in Chinese traumatized adolescents by considering the role of perceived social support. A total of 247 Chinese adolescents who had experienced a severe tornado 3 months before this study were recruited for this study. The results showed that our model fitted the data very well (χ = 195.691; df = 96; χ/df = 2.038; root mean square error of approximation = 0.065; Tucker-Lewis index = 0.959; comparative fit index = 0.967) and reveal that perceived social support partially mediates the relationship between resilience, PTSD severity, and PTG. The clinical implications and limitations of our research and the recommendations for future research are discussed in this article.

Public perception of climatological tornado risk in Tennessee, USA.

The southeastern United States experiences some of the greatest tornado fatality rates in the world, with a peak in the western portion of the state of Tennessee. Understanding the physical and social characteristics of the area that may lead to increased fatalities is a critical research need. Residents of 12 Tennessee counties from three regions of the state (N = 1804) were asked questions about their perception of climatological tornado risk in their county. Approximately half of participants underestimated their local tornado risk calculated from 50 years of historical tornado data. The percentage of participants underestimating their climatological risk increased to 81% when using model estimates of tornado frequencies that account for likely missed tornadoes. A mixed effects, ordinal logistic regression model suggested that participants with prior experience with tornadoes are more likely to correctly estimate or overestimate (rather than underestimate) their risk compared to those lacking experience (ß = 0.52, p < 0.01). Demographic characteristics did not have a large influence on the accuracy of climatological tornado risk perception. Areas where more tornadoes go unreported may be at a disadvantage for understanding risk because residents' prior experience is based on limited observations. This work adds to the literature highlighting the importance of personal experiences in determining hazard risk perception and emphasizes the uniqueness of tornadoes, as they may occur in rural areas without knowledge, potentially prohibiting an accumulation of experiences.

Individual relocation decisions after tornadoes: a multi-level analysis.

This study examines how multi-level factors affected individuals' relocation decisions after EF4 and EF5 (Enhanced Fujita Tornado Intensity Scale) tornadoes struck the United States in 2013. A telephone survey was conducted with 536 respondents, including oversampled older adults, one year after these two disaster events. Respondents' addresses were used to associate individual information with block group-level variables recorded by the American Community Survey. Logistic regression revealed that residential damage and homeownership are important predictors of relocation. There was also significant interaction between these two variables, indicating less difference between homeowners and renters at higher damage levels. Homeownership diminished the likelihood of relocation among younger respondents. Random effects logistic regression found that the percentage of homeownership and of higher income households in the community buffered the effect of damage on relocation; the percentage of older adults reduced the likelihood of this group relocating. The findings are assessed from the standpoint of age difference, policy implications, and social capital and vulnerability.

Pediatric Injuries Treated at a Level 1 Trauma Center After an F5 Tornado.

BACKGROUND: On May 22, 2011, an F5 tornado ripped through the city of Joplin, Mo, resulting in over 150 fatalities and over 750 injuries. Pediatric trauma centers in the region needed to be prepared to receive patients. Little data exist on the types of patients who are received at pediatric trauma centers after disasters such as tornados. OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this study is to describe the patients received at the nearest level 1 pediatric trauma center after the tornado. METHODS: Cases were identified through the trauma registry. Data regarding patient demographics, past medical history, characteristics of injury, treatment received, and outcomes were obtained retrospectively from medical records. RESULTS: A total of 10 patients were received at the pediatric trauma center. Traumatic brain injury was the most common diagnosis followed by orthopedic and maxillofacial injuries. Seven patients required surgical procedures in the operating room, but only 1 patient required surgery within the first 24 hours of arrival. Eight patients were intubated and were in the pediatric intensive care unit. The average length of stay in the hospital was 19.4 days with a range of 14 hours to 94 days. CONCLUSIONS: Immediately after a significant tornado in the referral region, pediatric trauma centers need to prepare to receive patients. Head injuries will likely be common, and pediatric trauma centers will likely receive multiple intubated patients. Knowledge of injuries received and resources needed can better prepare these trauma centers for future devastating tornadoes.

Prevalence and predictors of PTSD and depression among adolescent victims of the 2016 tornado in Yancheng City.

The aim of this study was to investigate the prevalence rate of probable posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) and depression in the adolescents who experienced the 2016 Yancheng tornado 3 months ago, as well as to analyze the related risk factors. A total of 247 tornado adolescent survivors were recruited to complete child PTSD symptom scale and Center for Epidemiologic Studies Depression Scale for Children. Results showed that 57.5% and 58.7% of the participants reported suspected symptoms of PTSD and depression respectively. PTSD is highly comorbid with depression. Risk factors of these two disorders were age and tornado exposure. Finally, the implications of intervention and prevention of mental health problems among adolescents who experienced tornado were discussed.