The shape of the glucose concentration curve during an oral glucose tolerance test predicts risk for type 1 diabetes.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: We aimed to examine: (1) whether specific glucose-response curve shapes during OGTTs are predictive of type 1 diabetes development; and (2) the extent to which the glucose-response curve is influenced by insulin secretion. METHODS: Autoantibody-positive relatives of people with type 1 diabetes whose baseline OGTT met the definition of a monophasic or biphasic glucose-response curve were followed for the development of type 1 diabetes (n = 2627). A monophasic curve was defined as an increase in OGTT glucose between 30 and 90 min followed by a decline of ≥ 0.25 mmol/l between 90 and 120 min. A biphasic response curve was defined as a decrease in glucose after an initial increase, followed by a second increase of ≥ 0.25 mmol/l. Associations of type 1 diabetes risk with glucose curve shapes were examined using cumulative incidence curve comparisons and proportional hazards regression. C-peptide responses were compared with and without adjustments for potential confounders. RESULTS: The majority of participants had a monophasic curve at baseline (n = 1732 [66%] vs n = 895 [34%]). The biphasic group had a lower cumulative incidence of type 1 diabetes (p < 0.001), which persisted after adjustments for age, sex, BMI z score and number of autoantibodies (p < 0.001). Among the monophasic group, the risk of type 1 diabetes was greater for those with a glucose peak at 90 min than for those with a peak at 30 min; the difference persisted after adjustments (p < 0.001). Compared with the biphasic group, the monophasic group had a lower early C-peptide (30-0 min) response, a lower C-peptide index (30-0 min C-peptide/30-0 min glucose), as well as a greater 2 h C-peptide level (p < 0.001 for all). CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: Those with biphasic glucose curves have a lower risk of progression to type 1 diabetes than those with monophasic curves, and the risk among the monophasic group is increased when the glucose peak occurs at 90 min than at 30 min. Differences in glucose curve shapes between the monophasic and biphasic groups appear to be related to C-peptide responses.