Risk stratification to improve Pediatric Early Warning Systems: it is all about the context.

ABSTRACT

Early recognition of critically ill patients is of paramount importance to reduce pediatric mortality and morbidity. We created a risk stratification system combining vital parameters and predefined risk factors aimed at reducing the risk of unrecognized clinical deterioration compared with conventional Pediatric Early Warning Systems (PEWS). This single-center retrospective case cohort study included infants (gestational age ≥ 37 weeks) to adolescents (aged <18 years) with unplanned pediatric intensive care unit (PICU) admission between April 01, 2014, and February 28, 2018. The sensitivity in the 24 h prior to endpoint of the Pediatric Risk Evaluation and Stratification System (PRESS) was compared with that of the conventional PEWS and calculated as the proportion of study patients who received a high-risk score. Seventy-four PICU admissions were included. PRESS and PEWS sensitivities at 2 h prior to endpoint were 0.70 (95%CI 0.59 to 0.80) and 0.30 (95%CI 0.20 to 0.42) respectively (p < 0.001). Excluding patients with seizures, PRESS sensitivity increased to 0.75 (95%CI 0.64 to 0.85). Forty-nine patients (66%) scored positive on at least one high-risk factor, and "worried sign" was scored in 31 patients (42%).Conclusion: Risk stratification seems advantageous for a faster detection of clinical deterioration, providing opportunity for earlier intervention. What is Known • Prompt detection of clinical deterioration is of essential importance to reduce morbidity and mortality. • Conventional Pediatric Early Warning Systems (PEWS) have limited sensitivity and a short window of detection of 1 to 2 h. What is New • Risk stratification based on context factors allows earlier identification of patients at risk, well before deviation of vital signs. • Risk stratification combined with continuous monitoring of deteriorating trends in vital signs could lead to the development of next-generation warning systems achieving true patient safety.