A nomogram for predicting the renal dysfunction in a Chinese population with reduction in cadmium exposure based on an 8 years follow up study.

Cadmium exposure is associated with renal dysfunction. However, the outcome of renal function in subjects who have had a reduction in cadmium exposure for years has not been completely clarified, particularly for individuals with normal baseline renal function. In this study, we used a nomogram model to predict renal dysfunction after a reduction in cadmium exposure in subjects with normal baseline renal function. In 1998, a survey was performed in 790 subjects living in control and cadmium-polluted areas. A total of 497 subjects was followed up in 2006. 404 subjects with normal baseline urinary ß2-microglobulin (UBMG), 373 subjects with normal baseline urinary N-acetyl-ß-d-glucosaminidase (UNAG) and 407 subjects with normal baseline urinary albumin (UALB) were included in this analysis. Cadmium in the blood (BCd) and urine (UCd) was detected using graphite-furnace atomic absorption spectrometry. A logistic regression model was used to identify potential predicting factors of renal function at follow-up. Nomograms were developed based on those predictive factors. Bootstrap self-sampling, calibration curves and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were performed to quantify our modeling strategy. Adjusted and unadjusted logistic regression models both showed that age, BCd and UBMG or UNAG at baseline were independent risk factors for renal tubular dysfunction. Baseline age, sex, BCd and UNAG or UBMG or UALB were used to construct the nomogam. The internal validation showed that the C-index was 0.70-0.74 for predicting renal dysfunction. The area under the curve of the nomogram was 0.70-0.74. Decision curve analysis verified the predictive value of the nomogram. A nomogram may be a useful risk assessment tool for predicting the progress of renal function in a cadmium-exposed population with normal baseline kidney function.