Respiratory syncytial virus infection trend is associated with meteorological factors.
Sci Rep
; 10(1): 10931, 2020 07 02.
Article
em En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-32616819
ABSTRACT
Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) infects young children and causes influenza-like illness. RSV circulation and prevalence differ among countries and climates. To better understand whether climate factors influence the seasonality of RSV in Thailand, we examined RSV data from children ≤ 5 years-old who presented with respiratory symptoms from January 2012-December 2018. From a total of 8,209 nasopharyngeal samples, 13.2% (1,082/8,209) was RSV-positive, of which 37.5% (406/1,082) were RSV-A and 36.4% (394/1,082) were RSV-B. The annual unimodal RSV activity from July-November overlaps with the rainy season. Association between meteorological data including monthly average temperature, relative humidity, rainfall, and wind speed for central Thailand and the incidence of RSV over 7-years was analyzed using Spearman's rank and partial correlation. Multivariate time-series analysis with an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model showed that RSV activity correlated positively with rainfall (r = 0.41) and relative humidity (r = 0.25), but negatively with mean temperature (r = - 0.27). The best-fitting ARIMA (1,0,0)(2,1,0)12 model suggests that peak RSV activity lags the hottest month of the year by 4 months. Our results enable possible prediction of RSV activity based on the climate and could help to anticipate the yearly upsurge of RSV in this region.
Texto completo:
1
Base de dados:
MEDLINE
Assunto principal:
Infecções por Vírus Respiratório Sincicial
/
Conceitos Meteorológicos
Tipo de estudo:
Incidence_studies
/
Observational_studies
/
Prognostic_studies
/
Risk_factors_studies
Limite:
Child
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Child, preschool
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Female
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Humans
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Male
País/Região como assunto:
Asia
Idioma:
En
Revista:
Sci Rep
Ano de publicação:
2020
Tipo de documento:
Article
País de afiliação:
Tailândia