High-spatiotemporal-resolution mapping of PM2.5 traffic source impacts integrating machine learning and source-specific multipollutant indicator.

ABSTRACT

Traffic sources are a major contributor to fine particulate matter (PM2.5) pollution, with their emissions and diffusion exhibiting complex spatiotemporal patterns. Receptor models have limitations in estimating high-resolution source contributions due to insufficient observation networks of PM2.5 compositions. This study developed a source apportionment method that integrates machine learning and emission-based integrated mobile source indicator (IMSI) to rapidly and accurately estimate PM2.5 traffic source impacts with high spatiotemporal resolution in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. Firstly, we utilized multisource data and developed various machine learning models to optimize the traffic-related pollutant concentration fields simulated by a chemical transport model. Results demonstrated that the Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) model exhibited excellent prediction accuracy of nitrogen oxide (NO2), carbon oxide (CO), and elemental carbon (EC), with the cross-validated R values increasing to 0.87-0.92 and error indices decreasing by 50-67%. Furthermore, we estimated and predicted daily mappings of PM2.5 traffic source impacts using the IMSI method based on optimized concentration fields, which improved spatially resolved source contributions to PM2.5. Our findings reveal that PM2.5 traffic source impacts display significant spatial heterogeneity, and these hotspots can be precisely identified during the pollution processes with sharp changes. The evaluation results indicated that there is a good correlation (R of 0.79) between PM2.5 traffic source impacts by IMSI method and traffic source contributions apportioned by a receptor model at Beijing site. Our study provides deeper insights of estimating the spatiotemporal distribution of PM2.5 source-specific impacts especially in regions without PM2.5 compositions, which can provide more complete and timely guidance to implement precise air pollution management strategies.