Quantifying Multipollutant Health Impacts Using the Environmental Benefits Mapping and Analysis Program-Community Edition (BenMAP-CE): A Case Study in Atlanta, Georgia.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Air pollution risk assessments do not generally quantify health impacts using multipollutant risk estimates, but instead use results from single-pollutant or copollutant models. Multipollutant epidemiological models account for pollutant interactions and joint effects but can be computationally complex and data intensive. Risk estimates from multipollutant studies are therefore challenging to implement in the quantification of health impacts. OBJECTIVES: Our objective was to conduct a case study using a developmental multipollutant version of the Environmental Benefits Mapping and Analysis Program-Community Edition (BenMAP-CE) to estimate the health impact associated with changes in multiple air pollutants using both a single and multipollutant approach. METHODS: BenMAP-CE was used to estimate the change in the number of pediatric asthma emergency department (ED) visits attributable to simulated changes in air pollution between 2011 and 2025 in Atlanta, Georgia, applying risk estimates from an epidemiological study that examined short-term single-pollutant and multipollutant (with and without first-order interactions) exposures. Analyses examined individual pollutants (i.e., ozone, fine particulate matter, carbon monoxide, nitrogen dioxide (NO2), sulfur dioxide, and particulate matter components) and combinations of these pollutants meant to represent shared properties or predefined sources (i.e., oxidant gases, secondary pollutants, traffic, power plant, and criteria pollutants). Comparisons were made between multipollutant health impact functions (HIF) and the sum of single-pollutant HIFs for the individual pollutants that constitute the respective pollutant groups. RESULTS: Photochemical modeling predicted large decreases in most of the examined pollutant concentrations between 2011 and 2025 based on sector specific (i.e., source-based) estimates of growth and anticipated controls. Estimated number of avoided asthma ED visits attributable to any given multipollutant group were generally higher when using results from models that included interaction terms in comparison with those that did not. We estimated the greatest number of avoided pediatric asthma ED visits for pollutant groups that include NO2 (i. e., criteria pollutants, oxidants, and traffic pollutants). In models that accounted for interaction, year-round estimates for pollutant groups that included NO2 ranged from 27.1 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.6, 52.7; traffic pollutants] to 55.4 (95% CI 41.8, 69.0; oxidants) avoided pediatric asthma ED visits. Year-round results using multipollutant risk estimates with interaction were comparable to the sum of the single-pollutant results corresponding to most multipollutant groups [e.g., 52.9 (95% CI 43.6, 62.2) for oxidants] but were notably lower than the sum of the single-pollutant results for some pollutant groups [e.g., 77.5 (95% CI 66.0, 89.0) for traffic pollutants]. DISCUSSION: Performing a multipollutant health impact assessment is technically feasible but computationally complex. It requires time, resources, and detailed input parameters not commonly reported in air pollution epidemiological studies. Results estimated using the sum of single-pollutant models are comparable to those quantified using a multipollutant model. Although limited to a single study and location, assessing the trade-offs between a multipollutant and single-pollutant approach is warranted. https//doi.org/10.1289/EHP12969.