I think, therefore I act, Revisited: Building a stronger foundation for risk analysis.

Actively open-minded thinking (AOT) is a thinking style in which people engaged in judgment and decision-making actively seek out and then evaluate information in a manner that is intentionally disconnected from their prior beliefs and motivations and in line with self-perceptions of autonomy. Actively open-minded thinkers have been observed to make both more accurate judgments about the magnitude of risks and more evidence-based decisions under uncertainty in a wide range of situations such as climate change and politics. In addition, actively open-minded thinkers functioning in domains where they lack a desired level of knowledge are open to "outsourcing" the job of critical reasoning thinking to credible experts; in other words, they are better able to gauge who is trustworthy and then rely on the insights of these trustworthy others to help them reach a conclusion. We report results from a follow-up to research previously published in Risk Analysis that confirms these tenets in the context of COVID-19. We then extend these results to offer a series of recommendations for strengthening the process and outcomes of risk analysis: leveraging the latent norm of autonomy and personal agency that underpins AOT, activating or engaging with approaches to reasoning-such as decision structuring-that are in line with AOT, and working upstream and downstream of risk analysis to establish AOT as a norm of its own.

Public Concern about Water Safety, Weather, and Climate: Insights from the World Risk Poll.

Water safety refers to the quality of one's drinking water and whether it lacks dangerous contaminants. Limited access to safe water is projected to impact approximately 5 billion people worldwide by 2050. Climate change and worsening severe weather events pose increasing threats to global water safety. However, people may not perceive links between climate change and water safety, potentially undermining their willingness to implement behaviors that improve water safety. Existing studies on water safety risk perceptions have mostly been conducted in single-country contexts, which limits researchers' ability to make cross-national comparisons. Here, we assessed the extent to which people's severe weather concern and climate change concern predict their water safety concern. Our analyses used survey data from the 142-country 2019 Lloyd's Register Foundation World Risk Poll, including 21 low-income and 34 lower-middle-income countries. In mixed-effects models, severe weather concern was significantly more predictive of water safety concern than was climate change concern, although both resulted in positive associations. Worldwide, this finding was robust, insensitive to key model specifications and countries' varying protection against unsafe drinking water. We suggest communicators and policymakers improve messaging about water safety and other environmental threats by explaining how they are impacted by worsening severe weather.

I Think, Therefore I Act: The Influence of Critical Reasoning Ability on Trust and Behavior During the COVID-19 Pandemic.

Actively open-minded thinking (AOT) operates in three dimensions: it serves as a norm accounting for how one should search for and use information in judgment and decision making; it is a thinking style that one may adopt in accordance with the norm; and it sets standards for evaluating the thinking of others, particularly the trustworthiness of sources that claim authority. With the first and third dimensions in mind, we explore how AOT influences trust in public health experts, risk perceptions, and compliance with recommended behaviors aimed at slowing the spread and severity of the COVID-19 pandemic. Using survey data from a nationally representative sample of Americans (N = 857), we tested whether AOT will lead people to place greater trust public health experts (H1). Because these experts have been consistently messaging that COVID-19 is a real and serious threat to public health, we also hypothesized that trust in experts would be positively associated with high perceived risk (H2), which should have a positive influence on (self-reported) compliance with CDC recommendations (H3). And because AOT is a self-directed thinking style, we also expected it to directly influence risk perceptions and, by extension, compliance (H4). Our results support all four hypotheses. We discuss the implications of these results for how risk communication and risk management efforts are designed and practiced.

Public perceptions of federal science advisory boards depend on their composition.

The United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Science Advisory Board (SAB) provides expert advice to inform agency decision-making. Recent regulations have decreased the representation of academic scientists on the EPA SAB and increased the representation of industry scientists. In an experiment, we asked how the US public views the goals and legitimacy of the board as a function of its composition. Respondents perceived SABs with a majority of industry scientists to be more likely to promote business interests than SABs with a majority of academic scientists. Liberals were less likely than conservatives to perceive industry-majority SABs as promoting human health and the environment, and making unbiased and evidence-based decisions. Our findings underscore the potential for politicization of scientific advice to the government.

Risk Perception: Reflections on 40 Years of Research.

Numerous studies and practical experiences with risk have demonstrated the importance of risk perceptions for people's behavior. In this narrative review, we describe and reflect upon some of the lines of research that we feel have been important in helping us understand the factors and processes that shape people's risk perceptions. In our review, we propose that much of the research on risk perceptions to date can be grouped according to three dominant perspectives and, thus, approaches to study design; they are: the characteristics of hazards, the characteristics of risk perceivers, and the application of heuristics to inform risk judgments. In making these distinctions, we also highlight what we see as outstanding challenges for researchers and practitioners. We also highlight a few new research questions that we feel warrant attention.

Industry-Dominated Science Advisory Boards Are Perceived To Be Legitimate But Only When They Recommend More Stringent Risk Management Policies.

In 2017, the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) was criticized for two controversial directives that restricted the eligibility of academic scientists to serve on the agency's key science advisory boards (SABs). The EPA portrayed these directives as necessary to ensure the integrity of the SAB. Critics portrayed them as a tactic by the agency to advance a more industry-friendly deregulatory agenda. With this backdrop, this research examined board composition and its effect on the perceived legitimacy of risk management recommendations by the SAB. In an experiment, we presented participants with hypothetical EPA SABs composed of different proportions of academic and industry scientists. We then asked participants to rate their satisfaction with, and the legitimacy of, these boards in light of their decisions in scenarios based on actual EPA SAB deliberations. Participants perceived higher levels of satisfaction and legitimacy when SABs made more stringent risk management recommendations. While SABs dominated by industry scientists were perceived to be more strongly motivated to protect business interests, we found no effect of board composition on perceptions of satisfaction and legitimacy. These results are consistent with prior research on decision quality that suggests people use normative outcomes as a heuristic for assessing the quality of deliberations. Moreover, these results suggest that members of the public are supportive of federal SABs regardless of their composition, but only if they take actions that are consistent with normative expectations.

Consumers' Acceptance of Agricultural Fertilizers Derived from Diverted and Recycled Human Urine.

Nitrogen and phosphorus are essential ingredients in fertilizers used to produce food. Novel methods are emerging for more efficiently sourcing these nutrients, one of which is to recover them from recycled human urine; once recovered, N and P can be redirected to fertilizer production. While the technology for creating human urine-derived fertilizer (HUDF) exists, implementing it at scale will depend on public acceptance. Thus, this study examined U.S. consumers' acceptance of HUDF across a range of applications and, in comparison, to other fertilizer types. Data were collected from a representative national sample, and analyses of variance with post-hoc comparisons were conducted to compare across fertilizer applications and types. A hierarchical regression was conducted to assess if demographics, psychological variables, and value orientations predict HUDF acceptance. Results suggest that HUDF and biosolid-based fertilizers are equally preferred and more strongly preferred than synthetic fertilizers. HUDF is not preferred as strongly as organic fertilizers. HUDF was deemed most acceptable when used on nonedible plants and least acceptable when used on crops for human consumption. Regression analysis revealed that judgments about risks and benefits were the strongest predictors of acceptance of UDF use. These results are promising for sanitation practitioners and regulators among others.

The benefit of virtue signaling: Corporate sleight-of-hand positively influences consumers' judgments about "social license to operate".

When confronted with concerns or backlash as a result of their environmental or sustainability performance, companies may elect to address them head-on by directly correcting their real or perceived misdeeds. However, it is often the case that businesses are unwilling or unable to address their transgressions directly; in these cases, they may elect to draw attention to indirect substantiality benefits unfolding in areas unrelated to where the concerns or backlash initially arose. In this study, we sought to test the effect of these indirect and direct responses to sustainability challenges on two dependent variables: public perception of company reputation, and their willingness to grant a company "social license" for future business activities. Compared to a business-as-usual control condition, and across three company contexts, consumers provided favorable ratings of reputation, and were willing to grant social license, when companies responded indirectly to a sustainability challenge. These results highlight the powerful effect of indirect responses, which may be perceived as "greenwash", and the importance of intuitive judgmental heuristics and individual value orientations when consumers form impressions about corporate sustainability.

Will Millennials save the world? The effect of age and generational differences on environmental concern.

Are younger people, defined by age, or younger generations, defined by cohort-level measures, more concerned about declines in environmental health when compared to their older counterparts within the United States? Related, are these same people more willing to support policy actions aimed at preventing future losses when compared to older adults? In spite of reporting by the U.S. popular press about the heightened environmental consciousness of Millennials, prior research offers conflicting answers. Scholarship focusing on age effects suggests that the answer to both questions is yes due to the dampening of environmental concern and action in older adults. More recent applied research on climate related risks and risk management options, by contrast, suggest that the answer to both questions is no, and that there is no difference in climate concern and risk mitigation between younger and older adults. In an attempt to disentangle these contradictory viewpoints, we undertook a study in which respondents in the United States characterized by age and generational cohort were presented with small and large hypothetical losses due to climate change. These same participants were then asked to indicate their support for future policy actions aimed at stemming these environmental losses. Overall, our data does not indicate that younger generations experience potential losses as more acute than older generations; neither age nor generational cohort correlated with the perceived severity of environmental losses nor support for future actions to prevent them. More robust predictors of both dependent variables were environmental value orientations (biospherism) and self-reported political orientation.

How emergency managers (mis?)interpret forecasts.

Emergency managers who work on floods and other weather-related hazards constitute critical frontline responders to disasters. Yet, while these professionals operate in a realm rife with uncertainty related to forecasts and other unknowns, the influence of uncertainty on their decision-making is poorly understood. Consequently, a national-level survey of county emergency managers in the United States was administered to examine how they interpret forecast information, using hypothetical climate, flood, and weather scenarios to simulate their responses to uncertain information. The study revealed that even emergency managers with substantial experience take decision shortcuts and make biased choices, just as do members of the general population. Their choices vary depending on such features as the format in which probabilistic forecasts are presented and whether outcomes are represented as gains or losses. In sum, forecast producers who consider these decision processes when developing and communicating forecasts could help to improve flood preparation and potentially reduce disaster losses.

Perceptions of Risk and Vulnerability Following Exposure to a Major Natural Disaster: The Calgary Flood of 2013.

Many studies have examined the general public's flood risk perceptions in the aftermath of local and regional flooding. However, relatively few studies have focused on large-scale events that affect tens of thousands of people within an urban center. Similarly, in spite of previous research on flood risks, unresolved questions persist regarding the variables that might influence perceptions of risk and vulnerability, along with management preferences. In light of the opportunities presented by these knowledge gaps, the research reported here examined public perceptions of flood risk and vulnerability, and management preferences, within the city of Calgary in the aftermath of extensive flooding in 2013. Our findings, which come from an online survey of residents, reveal that direct experience with flooding is not a differentiating factor for risk perceptions when comparing evacuees with nonevacuees who might all experience future risks. However, we do find that judgments about vulnerability-as a function of how people perceive physical distance-do differ according to one's evacuation experience. Our results also indicate that concern about climate change is an important predictor of flood risk perceptions, as is trust in government risk managers. In terms of mitigation preferences, our results reveal differences in support for large infrastructure projects based on whether respondents feel they might actually benefit from them.

Expanding the Reach of Participatory Risk Management: Testing an Online Decision-Aiding Framework for Informing Internally Consistent Choices.

This article presents research aimed at developing and testing an online, multistakeholder decision-aiding framework for informing multiattribute risk management choices associated with energy development and climate change. The framework was designed to provide necessary background information and facilitate internally consistent choices, or choices that are in line with users' prioritized objectives. In order to test different components of the decision-aiding framework, a six-part, 2 × 2 × 2 factorial experiment was conducted, yielding eight treatment scenarios. The three factors included: (1) whether or not users could construct their own alternatives; (2) the level of detail regarding the composition of alternatives users would evaluate; and (3) the way in which a final choice between users' own constructed (or highest-ranked) portfolio and an internally consistent portfolio was presented. Participants' self-reports revealed the framework was easy to use and providing an opportunity to develop one's own risk-management alternatives (Factor 1) led to the highest knowledge gains. Empirical measures showed the internal consistency of users' decisions across all treatments to be lower than expected and confirmed that providing information about alternatives' composition (Factor 2) resulted in the least internally consistent choices. At the same time, those users who did not develop their own alternatives and were not shown detailed information about the composition of alternatives believed their choices to be the most internally consistent. These results raise concerns about how the amount of information provided and the ability to construct alternatives may inversely affect users' real and perceived internal consistency.

Decision support framework for developing regional energy strategies.

In an effort to reduce "carbon pollution" as well as prepare the U.S. for the impacts of climate change, President Obama's 2013 Climate Action Plan calls for changes to be made to the nation's energy system. In addition to focusing on alternative portfolios of different fuels and power-generation technologies, researchers and advisory panels have urged that changes to the nation's energy system be based on a decision-making framework that incorporates stakeholders and accounts for real-world resource, supply, and demand constraints. To date, research and development on such a framework have proven elusive. The research reported here describes the development and test of a potential decision support framework that combines elements from structured decision-making (SDM) with portfolio analysis, methods that have been used independently to elicit preferences in complex decision contexts. This hybrid framework aimed to (1) provide necessary background information to users regarding the development of coupled climate-energy strategies; (2) account for users' values and objectives; (3) allow for the construction of bespoke energy portfolios bounded by real-world supply and demand constraints; and (4) provide a more rigorous basis for addressing trade-offs. Results show that this framework was user-friendly, led to significant increases in users' knowledge about energy systems and, importantly, led to more internally consistent decisions. For these reasons, this framework may serve as a suitable template for supporting decisions about energy transitions in the United States and abroad.

Structuring decisions for managing threatened and endangered species in a changing climate.

The management of endangered species under climate change is a challenging and often controversial task that incorporates input from a variety of different environmental, economic, social, and political interests. Yet many listing and recovery decisions for endangered species unfold on an ad hoc basis without reference to decision-aiding approaches that can improve the quality of management choices. Unlike many treatments of this issue, which consider endangered species management a science-based problem, we suggest that a clear decision-making process is equally necessary. In the face of new threats due to climate change, managers' choices about endangered species require closely linked analyses and deliberations that identify key objectives and develop measurable attributes, generate and compare management alternatives, estimate expected consequences and key sources of uncertainty, and clarify trade-offs across different dimensions of value. Several recent cases of endangered species conservation decisions illustrate our proposed decision-focused approach, including Gulf of Maine Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) recovery framework development, Cultus Lake sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) management, and Upper Columbia River white sturgeon (Acipenser transmontanus) recovery planning. Estructuración de Decisiones para Manejar Especies Amenazadas y en Peligro en un Clima Cambiante.

Consumer-perceived risks and choices about pharmaceuticals in the environment: a cross-sectional study.

BACKGROUND: There is increasing concern that pollution from pharmaceuticals used in human medicine and agriculture can be a threat to the environment. Little is known, however, if people are aware that pharmaceuticals may have a detrimental influence on the environment. The present study examines people's risk perception and choices in regard to environmental risks of pharmaceuticals used in human medicine and for agricultural purposes. METHODS: A representative sample of the U.S. population (N = 640) was surveyed. Respondents completed a hypothetical choice task that involved tradeoffs between human and environmental health. In addition, it was examined how much people would support an environment policy related to drug regulation. RESULTS: For agricultural pharmaceuticals, respondents reported a high level of satisfaction for a policy requiring farms to limit their use of antibiotics. In the domain of pharmaceuticals used in human medicine, we found that people were willing to consider environmental consequences when choosing a drug, but only when choices were made about treatment options for a rather harmless disease. In contrast, when decisions were made about treatment options for a severe disease, the drug's effectiveness was the most important criterion. CONCLUSIONS: It can be concluded that the environmental impact of a drug will be hardly considered in decisions about pharmaceuticals for severe diseases like cancer, and this may be due to the fact that these decisions are predominantly affective in nature. However, for less severe health risks, people are willing to balance health and environmental considerations.

Using choice experiments to understand household tradeoffs regarding pineapple production and environmental management in Costa Rica.

Choices among environmental management alternatives involve tradeoffs where, for example, the benefits of environmental protection may be offset by economic costs or welfare losses to individual agents. Understanding individual or household-level preferences regarding these tradeoffs is not always straightforward, and it often requires an analysis of choices under alternative scenarios. A household survey was used to gather data for a choice experiment, where respondents were asked to choose among pairs of alternative management scenarios about pineapple production in Costa Rica. The experimental design consisted of six attributes that varied on between two and five attribute levels, and the experiment and accompanying survey were administered orally in Spanish. The results show that respondents are willing to make tradeoffs with respect to the management attributes in order to see an overall improvement in environmental quality. Respondents were willing to accept a moderate level of pesticide application, presumably in exchange for paying a lower cost or seeing a gain in another area, such as monitoring or soil conservation. Buffer zones were significant only in the case of large farms. The results have implications for policy decisions that aim to reflect public attitudes, particularly the aspects of pineapple production that matter most to people living near pineapple plantations. The study also highlights the effectiveness of the choice experiment approach in examining household preferences about environmental management in a rural development context.

Risk management in a developing country context: improving decisions about point-of-use water treatment among the rural poor in Africa.

More than 1 billion people, the vast majority of which live in the developing world, lack basic access to clean water for domestic use. For this reason, finding and promoting effective and sustainable solutions for the provision of reliable clean water in developing nations has become a focus of several public health and international development efforts. Even though several means of providing centrally located sources of clean water in developing communities exist, the severity and widespread nature of the water problem has led most development agencies and sanitation experts to strongly advocate the use of point-of-use treatment systems alongside whatever source of water people regularly use. In doing so, however, development practitioners have been careful to point out that any interventions or infrastructure regarding water safety and human health must also adhere to one of the central principles of international development: to facilitate more democratic and participatory models of decision making and governance. To this end, the research reported here focused on the development of a deliberative risk management framework for involving affected stakeholders in decisions about POU water treatment systems. This research, which was grounded in previous studies of structured decision making, took place in two rural villages in the East African nation of Tanzania.

Five propositions for improving decision making about the environment in developing communities: insights from the decision sciences.

Decisions focused on managing natural resources in developing areas present some of the most imposing challenges to policy makers, scientists, and stakeholders alike. The response of policy makers and the technical community in the face of these challenges has been significant. However, our experiences as researchers and facilitators of group planning and decision-making processes have left us concerned about the lack of attention devoted to supporting the underlying processes used to make these complex decisions. To this end, we present five propositions based on work in the decision sciences that we believe stand out as essential for improving decision-making processes in developing communities.

Beyond a simple case of black and white: searching for the white male effect in the African-American community.

Prior research focusing on risk perceptions has led to the observation that well-educated and politically conservative white males tend to systematically perceive lower levels of risk from a wide range of hazards when compared to other members of society (e.g., white women, nonwhite women and men). While this "white male effect (WME)" is quite striking given that many policymakers fall into this group, a byproduct of this finding is that it deflects attention from the heterogeneity, in terms of people's concerns about risks, that exists in African-American and other minority communities. The research reported here set out to explore this heterogeneity by asking a simple question: Can a phenomenon similar to the WME be found in the African-American community? It can, and its implications for research and practice in risk management are discussed.