Importations of SARS-CoV-2 lineages decline after nonpharmaceutical interventions in phylogeographic analyses.

During the early stages of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, before vaccines were available, nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) such as reducing contacts or antigenic testing were used to control viral spread. Quantifying their success is therefore key for future pandemic preparedness. Using 1.8 million SARS-CoV-2 genomes from systematic surveillance, we study viral lineage importations into Germany for the third pandemic wave from late 2020 to early 2021, using large-scale Bayesian phylogenetic and phylogeographic analysis with a longitudinal assessment of lineage importation dynamics over multiple sampling strategies. All major nationwide NPIs were followed by fewer importations, with the strongest decreases seen for free rapid tests, the strengthening of regulations on mask-wearing in public transport and stores, as well as on internal movements and gatherings. Most SARS-CoV-2 lineages first appeared in the three most populous states with most cases, and spread from there within the country. Importations rose before and peaked shortly after the Christmas holidays. The substantial effects of free rapid tests and obligatory medical/surgical mask-wearing suggests these as key for pandemic preparedness, given their relatively few negative socioeconomic effects. The approach relates environmental factors at the host population level to viral lineage dissemination, facilitating similar analyses of rapidly evolving pathogens in the future.

Reconstructing relative transmission rates in Bayesian phylodynamics: Two-fold transmission advantage of Omicron in Berlin, Germany during December 2021.

Phylodynamic methods have lately played a key role in understanding the spread of infectious diseases. During the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic, large scale genomic surveillance has further increased the potential of dynamic inference from viral genomes. With the continual emergence of novel severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus type 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variants, explicitly allowing transmission rate differences between simultaneously circulating variants in phylodynamic inference is crucial. In this study, we present and empirically validate an extension to the BEAST2 package birth-death skyline model (BDSKY), BDSKY[Formula: see text], which introduces a scaling factor for the transmission rate between independent, jointly inferred trees. In an extensive simulation study, we show that BDSKY[Formula: see text] robustly infers the relative transmission rates under different epidemic scenarios. Using publicly available genome data of SARS-CoV-2, we apply BDSKY[Formula: see text] to quantify the transmission advantage of the Omicron over the Delta variant in Berlin, Germany. We find the overall transmission rate of Omicron to be scaled by a factor of two with pronounced variation between the individual clusters of each variant. These results quantify the transmission advantage of Omicron over the previously circulating Delta variant, in a crucial period of pre-established non-pharmaceutical interventions. By inferring variant- as well as cluster-specific transmission rate scaling factors, we show the differences in transmission dynamics for each variant. This highlights the importance of incorporating lineage-specific transmission differences in phylodynamic inference.

Museum specimens of a landlocked pinniped reveal recent loss of genetic diversity and unexpected population connections.

The Saimaa ringed seal (Pusa hispida saimensis) is endemic to Lake Saimaa in Finland. The subspecies is thought to have originated when parts of the ringed seal population of the Baltic region were trapped in lakes emerging due to postglacial bedrock rebound around 9000 years ago. During the 20th century, the population experienced a drastic human-induced bottleneck. Today encompassing a little over 400 seals with extremely low genetic diversity, it is classified as endangered. We sequenced sections of the mitochondrial control region from 60 up to 125-years-old museum specimens of the Saimaa ringed seal. The generated dataset was combined with publicly available sequences. We studied how genetic variation has changed through time in this subspecies and how it is phylogenetically related to other ringed seal populations from the Baltic Sea, Lake Ladoga, North America, Svalbard, and the White Sea. We observed temporal fluctuations in haplotype frequencies and loss of haplotypes accompanied by a recent reduction in female effective population size. In apparent contrast with the traditionally held view of the Baltic origin of the population, the Saimaa ringed seal mtDNA variation also shows affinities to North American ringed seals. Our results suggest that the Saimaa ringed seal has experienced recent genetic drift associated with small population size. The results further suggest that extant Baltic ringed seal is not representative of the ancestral population of the Saimaa ringed seal, which calls for re-evaluation of the deep history of this subspecies.

Variation in the Substitution Rates among the Human Mitochondrial Haplogroup U Sublineages.

Resolving the absolute timescale of phylogenetic trees stipulates reliable estimates for the rate of DNA sequence evolution. For this end, various calibration methods have been developed and studied intensively. Intraspecific rate variation among distinct genetic lineages, however, has gained less attention. Here, we have assessed lineage-specific molecular rates of human mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) by performing tip-calibrated Bayesian phylogenetic analyses. Tip-calibration, as opposed to traditional nodal time stamps from dated fossil evidence or geological events, is based on sample ages and becoming ever more feasible as ancient DNA data from radiocarbon-dated samples accumulate. We focus on subhaplogroups U2, U4, U5a, and U5b, the data including ancient mtDNA genomes from 14C-dated samples (n = 234), contemporary genomes (n = 301), and two outgroup sequences from haplogroup R. The obtained molecular rates depended on the data sets (with or without contemporary sequences), suggesting time-dependency. More notable was the rate variation between haplogroups: U4 and U5a stand out having a substantially higher rate than U5b. This is also reflected in the divergence times obtained (U5a: 17,700 years and U5b: 29,700 years), a disparity not reported previously. After ruling out various alternative causes (e.g., selection, sampling, and sequence quality), we propose that the substitution rates have been influenced by demographic histories, widely different among populations where U4/U5a or U5b are frequent. As with the Y-chromosomal subhaplogroup R1b, the mitochondrial U4 and U5a have been associated with remarkable range extensions of the Yamnaya culture in the Bronze Age.

Genetic assessment reveals no population substructure and divergent regional and sex-specific histories in the Chachapoyas from northeast Peru.

Many native populations in South America have been severely impacted by two relatively recent historical events, the Inca and the Spanish conquest. However decisive these disruptive events may have been, the populations and their gene pools have been shaped markedly also by the history prior to the conquests. This study focuses mainly on the Chachapoya peoples that inhabit the montane forests on the eastern slopes of the northern Peruvian Andes, but also includes three distinct neighboring populations (the Jívaro, the Huancas and the Cajamarca). By assessing mitochondrial, Y-chromosomal and autosomal diversity in the region, we explore questions that have emerged from archaeological and historical studies of the regional culture (s). These studies have shown, among others, that Chachapoyas was a crossroads for Coast-Andes-Amazon interactions since very early times. In this study, we examine the following questions: 1) was there pre-Hispanic genetic population substructure in the Chachapoyas sample? 2) did the Spanish conquest cause a more severe population decline on Chachapoyan males than on females? 3) can we detect different patterns of European gene flow in the Chachapoyas region? and, 4) did the demographic history in the Chachapoyas resemble the one from the Andean area? Despite cultural differences within the Chachapoyas region as shown by archaeological and ethnohistorical research, genetic markers show no significant evidence for past or current population substructure, although an Amazonian gene flow dynamic in the northern part of this territory is suggested. The data also indicates a bottleneck c. 25 generations ago that was more severe among males than females, as well as divergent population histories for populations in the Andean and Amazonian regions. In line with previous studies, we observe high genetic diversity in the Chachapoyas, despite the documented dramatic population declines. The diverse topography and great biodiversity of the northeastern Peruvian montane forests are potential contributing agents in shaping and maintaining the high genetic diversity in the Chachapoyas region.

Human mitochondrial DNA lineages in Iron-Age Fennoscandia suggest incipient admixture and eastern introduction of farming-related maternal ancestry.

Human ancient DNA studies have revealed high mobility in Europe's past, and have helped to decode the human history on the Eurasian continent. Northeastern Europe, especially north of the Baltic Sea, however, remains less well understood largely due to the lack of preserved human remains. Finland, with a divergent population history from most of Europe, offers a unique perspective to hunter-gatherer way of life, but thus far genetic information on prehistoric human groups in Finland is nearly absent. Here we report 103 complete ancient mitochondrial genomes from human remains dated to AD 300-1800, and explore mtDNA diversity associated with hunter-gatherers and Neolithic farmers. The results indicate largely unadmixed mtDNA pools of differing ancestries from Iron-Age on, suggesting a rather late genetic shift from hunter-gatherers towards farmers in North-East Europe. Furthermore, the data suggest eastern introduction of farmer-related haplogroups into Finland, contradicting contemporary genetic patterns in Finns.

Identification and analysis of mtDNA genomes attributed to Finns reveal long-stagnant demographic trends obscured in the total diversity.

In Europe, modern mitochondrial diversity is relatively homogeneous and suggests an ubiquitous rapid population growth since the Neolithic revolution. Similar patterns also have been observed in mitochondrial control region data in Finland, which contrasts with the distinctive autosomal and Y-chromosomal diversity among Finns. A different picture emerges from the 843 whole mitochondrial genomes from modern Finns analyzed here. Up to one third of the subhaplogroups can be considered as Finn-characteristic, i.e. rather common in Finland but virtually absent or rare elsewhere in Europe. Bayesian phylogenetic analyses suggest that most of these attributed Finnish lineages date back to around 3,000-5,000 years, coinciding with the arrival of Corded Ware culture and agriculture into Finland. Bayesian estimation of past effective population sizes reveals two differing demographic histories: 1) the 'local' Finnish mtDNA haplotypes yielding small and dwindling size estimates for most of the past; and 2) the 'immigrant' haplotypes showing growth typical of most European populations. The results based on the local diversity are more in line with that known about Finns from other studies, e.g., Y-chromosome analyses and archaeology findings. The mitochondrial gene pool thus may contain signals of local population history that cannot be readily deduced from the total diversity.

Vestiges of an Ancient Border in the Contemporary Genetic Diversity of North-Eastern Europe.

It has previously been demonstrated that the advance of the Neolithic Revolution from the Near East through Europe was decelerated in the northernmost confines of the continent, possibly as a result of space and resource competition with lingering Mesolithic populations. Finland was among the last domains to adopt a farming lifestyle, and is characterized by substructuring in the form of a distinct genetic border dividing the northeastern and southwestern regions of the country. To explore the origins of this divergence, the geographical patterns of mitochondrial and Y-chromosomal haplogroups of Neolithic and Mesolithic ancestry were assessed in Finnish populations. The distribution of these uniparental markers revealed a northeastern bias for hunter-gatherer haplogroups, while haplogroups associated with the farming lifestyle clustered in the southwest. In addition, a correlation could be observed between more ancient mitochondrial haplogroup age and eastern concentration. These results coupled with prior archeological evidence suggest the genetic northeast/southwest division observed in contemporary Finland represents an ancient vestigial border between Mesolithic and Neolithic populations undetectable in most other regions of Europe.