Challenges of COVID-19 Case Forecasting in the US, 2020-2021.

During the COVID-19 pandemic, forecasting COVID-19 trends to support planning and response was a priority for scientists and decision makers alike. In the United States, COVID-19 forecasting was coordinated by a large group of universities, companies, and government entities led by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the US COVID-19 Forecast Hub (https://covid19forecasthub.org). We evaluated approximately 9.7 million forecasts of weekly state-level COVID-19 cases for predictions 1-4 weeks into the future submitted by 24 teams from August 2020 to December 2021. We assessed coverage of central prediction intervals and weighted interval scores (WIS), adjusting for missing forecasts relative to a baseline forecast, and used a Gaussian generalized estimating equation (GEE) model to evaluate differences in skill across epidemic phases that were defined by the effective reproduction number. Overall, we found high variation in skill across individual models, with ensemble-based forecasts outperforming other approaches. Forecast skill relative to the baseline was generally higher for larger jurisdictions (e.g., states compared to counties). Over time, forecasts generally performed worst in periods of rapid changes in reported cases (either in increasing or decreasing epidemic phases) with 95% prediction interval coverage dropping below 50% during the growth phases of the winter 2020, Delta, and Omicron waves. Ideally, case forecasts could serve as a leading indicator of changes in transmission dynamics. However, while most COVID-19 case forecasts outperformed a naïve baseline model, even the most accurate case forecasts were unreliable in key phases. Further research could improve forecasts of leading indicators, like COVID-19 cases, by leveraging additional real-time data, addressing performance across phases, improving the characterization of forecast confidence, and ensuring that forecasts were coherent across spatial scales. In the meantime, it is critical for forecast users to appreciate current limitations and use a broad set of indicators to inform pandemic-related decision making.

Left Atrial Appendage Occlusion in Patients With Anticoagulation Failure vs Anticoagulation Contraindication.

BACKGROUND: Left atrial appendage occlusion (LAAO) provides mechanical cardioembolic protection for atrial fibrillation (AF) patients who cannot use oral anticoagulation therapy (OAT). Patients with a thrombotic event despite OAT are at high risk for recurrence and may also benefit from LAAO. OBJECTIVES: This study sought to investigate the efficacy of LAAO in AF patients with a thrombotic event on OAT compared to: 1) LAAO in AF patients with a contraindication for OAT; and 2) historical data. METHODS: The international LAAO after stroke despite oral anticoagulation (STR-OAC LAAO) collaboration included patients who underwent LAAO because of thrombotic events on OAT. This cohort underwent propensity score matching and was compared to the EWOLUTION (Evaluating Real-Life Clinical Outcomes in Atrial Fibrillation Patients Receiving the WATCHMAN Left Atrial Appendage Closure Technology) registry, which represents patients who underwent LAAO because of OAT contraindications. The primary outcome was ischemic stroke. Event rates were compared between cohorts and with historical data without OAT, yielding relative risk reductions based on risk scores. RESULTS: Analysis of 438 matched pairs revealed no significant difference in the ischemic stroke rate between the STR-OAC LAAO and EWOLUTION cohorts (2.5% vs 1.9%; HR: 1.37; 95% CI: 0.72-2.61). STR-OAC LAAO patients exhibited a higher thromboembolic risk (HR: 1.71; 95% CI: 1.04-2.83) but lower bleeding risk (HR: 0.39; 95% CI: 0.18-0.88) compared to EWOLUTION patients. The mortality rate was slightly higher in EWOLUTION (4.3% vs 6.9%; log-rank P = 0.028). Relative risk reductions for ischemic stroke were 70% and 78% in STR-OAC LAAO and EWOLUTION, respectively, compared to historical data without OAT. CONCLUSIONS: LAAO in patients with a thrombotic event on OAT demonstrated comparable stroke rates to the OAT contraindicated population in EWOLUTION. The thromboembolic event rate was higher and the bleeding rate lower, reflecting the intrinsically different risk profile of both populations. Until randomized trials are available, LAAO may be considered in patients with an ischemic event on OAT.

Obstetric risk factors for levator ani muscle avulsion: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

OBJECTIVES: Women have a 11% lifetime risk of undergoing surgery for vaginal prolapse. Levator ani muscle (LAM) avulsion is one etiological factor associated with primary and recurrent pelvic organ prolapse. Pelvic organ prolapse has been shown to greatly affect the quality of life and well-being of women. Conduct a meta-analysis identifying risk factors associated with LAM avulsion recognised on transperineal ultrasound (TPUS) or magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) in primiparous women after vaginal birth. STUDY DESIGN: OVID Medline, Embase and the Cochrane Library from inception to January 2021 were searched. Review Manager 5.3 (The Cochrane Collaboration) was used to analyse data. Odds ratios (OR) with 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs) were calculated. The heterogeneity among studies was calculated using the I2statistic. RESULTS: Twenty-five studies were eligible for inclusion (n = 9333 women). Major LAM avulsion was diagnosed in an average of 22 % (range 12.7-39.5 %) of cases. Twenty-two studies used TPUS and three used MRI to diagnose avulsion. Modifiable and non-modifiable risk factors were identified. Significant predictors identified were forceps (OR 6.25 [4.33 - 9.0]), obstetric anal sphincter injuries (OR 3.93 [2.85-5.42]), vacuum (OR 2.41 [1.40-4.16]), and maternal age (OR 1.06 [1.02-1.10]). CONCLUSIONS: This is the first meta-analysis of both modifiable and non-modifiable risk factors associated with LAM avulsion. This information could be used to develop a clinically applicable risk prediction model to target postnatal women at risk of LAM avulsion with a view to prevent the onset of pelvic floor organ prolapse.

Effects of Dronabinol on Dyspnea and Quality of Life in Patients With COPD.

Background: Dyspnea is frequently a debilitating symptom of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). Cannabinoid receptor agonists have the potential to alter dyspnea in these patients. Objective: Our objective was to determine if dronabinol, a pure cannabinoid, improves dyspnea and exercise tolerance in COPD. Methods: In this double-blind randomized, crossover pilot study, COPD patients received up to 20mg of oral dronabinol or placebo daily for 6 weeks with an intervening washout period. Dyspnea and fatigue were assessed using the Borg scale at rest and after an incremental shuttle walk. Functional status, mood, and depression were measured using the St George's Respiratory Questionnaire (SGRQ), the Pulmonary Functional Status and Dyspnea Questionnaire (PFSDQ), and the Geriatric Depression Scale (GDS). Results: A total of 11 participants (with mean forced expiratory volume in 1 second 50.8 ± 24.8%) completed the study with no improvement in dyspnea at rest or postexercise taking dronabinol versus placebo (Borg scale 0.27, 95% confidence interval [CI] -0.59 to 1.14 versus 0.23 points, 95% CI -0.71 to 1.07 at rest and 0.82, 95% CI -0.59 to 2.22 versus 0.36 points, 95% CI 0.13 to 2.78 post exercise; p=0.94 and p=0.69 respectively). Dronabinol compared with placebo showed no significant change in PFSDQ dyspnea scores (0.64, 95% CI -3.92 to 5.20 versus 5.0, 95% CI -6.29 to 16.29; p=0.43) or shuttle walk distances (20.7m, 95% CI -21.5 to 62.8 versus 13.7m, 95% CI -24.8 to 52.2; p=0.69). There were no significant differences in fatigue at rest and postexercise, SGRQ scores, or GDS scores. Conclusion: In this pilot study, dronabinol did not significantly improve dyspnea or exercise capacity compared with placebo.

The prevention of perineal trauma during vaginal birth.

Perineal trauma after vaginal birth is common, with approximately 9 of 10 women being affected. Second-degree perineal tears are twice as likely to occur in primiparous births, with a incidence of 40%. The incidence of obstetrical anal sphincter injury is approximately 3%, with a significantly higher rate in primiparous than in multiparous women (6% vs 2%). Obstetrical anal sphincter injury is a significant risk factor for the development of anal incontinence, with approximately 10% of women developing symptoms within a year following vaginal birth. Obstetrical anal sphincter injuries have significant medicolegal implications and contribute greatly to healthcare costs. For example, in 2013 and 2014, the economic burden of obstetrical anal sphincter injuries in the United Kingdom ranged between £3.7 million (with assisted vaginal birth) and £9.8 million (with spontaneous vaginal birth). In the United States, complications associated with trauma to the perineum incurred costs of approximately $83 million between 2007 and 2011. It is therefore crucial to focus on improvements in clinical care to reduce this risk and minimize the development of perineal trauma, particularly obstetrical anal sphincter injuries. Identification of risk factors allows modification of obstetrical practice with the aim of reducing the rate of perineal trauma and its attendant associated morbidity. Risk factors associated with second-degree perineal trauma include increased fetal birthweight, operative vaginal birth, prolonged second stage of labor, maternal birth position, and advanced maternal age. With obstetrical anal sphincter injury, risk factors include induction of labor, augmentation of labor, epidural, increased fetal birthweight, fetal malposition (occiput posterior), midline episiotomy, operative vaginal birth, Asian ethnicity, and primiparity. Obstetrical practice can be modified both antenatally and intrapartum. The evidence suggests that in the antenatal period, perineal massage can be commenced in the third trimester of pregnancy to increase muscle elasticity and allow stretching of the perineum during birth, thereby reducing the risk of tearing or need for episiotomy. With regard to the intrapartum period, there is a growing body of evidence from the United Kingdom, Norway, and Denmark suggesting that the implementation of quality improvement initiatives including the training of clinicians in manual perineal protection and mediolateral episiotomy can reduce the incidence of obstetrical anal sphincter injury. With episiotomy, the International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics recommends restrictive rather than routine use of episiotomy. This is particularly the case with unassisted vaginal births. However, there is a role for episiotomy, specifically mediolateral or lateral, with assisted vaginal births. This is specifically the case with nulliparous vacuum and forceps births, given that the use of mediolateral or lateral episiotomy has been shown to significantly reduce the incidence of obstetrical anal sphincter injury in these groups by 43% and 68%, respectively. However, the complications associated with episiotomy including perineal pain, dyspareunia, and sexual dysfunction should be acknowledged. Despite considerable research, interventions for reducing the risk of perineal trauma remain a subject of controversy. In this review article, we present the available data on the prevention of perineal trauma by describing the risk factors associated with perineal trauma and interventions that can be implemented to prevent perineal trauma, in particular obstetrical anal sphincter injury.

UK survey of colorectal surgeons on the management of acute obstetric anal sphincter injuries.

AIM: The role of colorectal surgeons in the management of acute obstetric anal sphincter injury (OASI) is an ongoing debate. Their expertise in operating in the anorectal region lends itself to assisting in OASI repair. The aim of this study was to establish the current involvement and recommended management of acute OASI by colorectal surgeons. METHOD: An online survey of consultant colorectal surgeons was sent to members of the Pelvic Floor Society to assess current involvement in acute OASI management and repair. RESULTS: Forty completed surveys were collated and analysed. Sixty-five per cent of respondents had seen an acute OASI since being a consultant and 50% stated they were involved in the repair of OASI less than once per year. 37.5% felt that a de-functioning stoma was still necessary sometimes. Many agreed with current guidelines for OASI repair in terms of antibiotics, laxatives and follow-up. CONCLUSIONS: Colorectal surgeons have varied opinions on the management of OASI. We suggest that multidisciplinary training of obstetricians and colorectal surgeons could lead to more collaboration regarding the management of women with acute OASI.

Dual Antifungal and Antiproliferative Activities of a Novel Protein Fraction from a Medicinally Important Herb Trillium govanianum Wall. ex. D. Don.

Antimicrobial resistance of microorganisms and the unwanted side effects of chemoradiation therapy in cancer are major issues in healthcare. In recent times, protein-based drugs have emerged as promising candidates due to their high specificity, less side effects, etc. In this context, the rhizome of Trillium govanianum was first explored for biologically active proteins/peptides. For this, three protein fractions namely Aqueous protein fraction (APF), Hexane-Methanol-treated aqueous protein fraction (HMAPF), and Methanol-treated aqueous protein fraction (MAPF) were prepared and evaluated for antimicrobial and antiproliferative activities. In antifungal activity, HMAPF showed the lowest MIC90 values of 1.56 µg/ml against Candida parapsilosis and Candida glabrata and 3.12 µg/ml against Candida albicans and Candida auris. The antifungal activity was further confirmed by a chitinase assay, a growth kinetics and a proteinase inhibitory assay. Surprisingly, none of the three protein fractions exhibited antibacterial activity against Escherichia coli and Staphylococcus aureus. Moreover, APF exhibited potent antiproliferative and antioxidant activities with IC50 values of 18 µg/ml and 227 µg /ml, respectively. For HMAPF, an IC50 value of 70 µg/ml against the MDA-MB-231 cell line was observed. The present results demonstrate that the protein fractions, particularly HMAPF and APF, might serve as potential sources of a dual antifungal and antiproliferative protein-based drug.

Congenital absence of appendix: a rare condition that could result in severe complications-a review of literature.

Acute appendicitis is the most frequent cause of abdominal pain and acute emergency surgeries, with a mortality risk of 6-7% at its onset. Since atypical deviations in these structures are rare, they can lead to diagnosis confusion and increase the risk of a worsening of the patient's clinical picture. We present the case of a 35-year-old patient who had surgery after being diagnosed with acute appendicitis. Based on clinical assessment (Alvarado score 8), appendix agenesis was discovered intraoperatively and confirmed by postoperative pathology. Excess dissection while looking for the appendix caused an intraoperative complication of cecal damage, which was treated with a right hemicolectomy. Until now, just a few cases have been described in the literature. We record this case owing to its rarity and with the goal of further understanding the illness, which will lead to improved surgical results in similar patients.

Diagnosis, management and training in perineal trauma: a UK national survey of obstetricians.

INTRODUCTION AND HYPOTHESIS: Perineal trauma during vaginal delivery is very common. Training in diagnosis and repair of trauma, including obstetric anal sphincter injuries, varies in the UK. We aimed to investigate the current knowledge and training received by obstetric physicians. METHODS: A national, validated survey was conducted online, using Qualtrics. The National Trainees Committee distributed the survey. It was also sent directly to consultants via email. RESULTS: A total of 302 physicians completed the survey and were included in the analysis. 3.9% of participants described their training in obstetric perineal trauma as "very poor" or "poor". 20.5% said they have not received training. 8.6% of physicians practising for more than 10 years had not had training for over 10 years. 70.5% responded "somewhat agree" or "strongly agree" when asked if they would like more training. Identification of first, second, third-, and fourth-degree tears from images and descriptions was very good (more than 80% correct for all categories). Classification of other perineal trauma was less consistent, with many incorrectly using the Sultan Classification. "Manual perineal support" and "Controlled or guided delivery" were the most frequently selected methods for the prevention of obstetric anal sphincter injury (OASI). CONCLUSIONS: Training experience for physicians in obstetric perineal trauma varies. Further improvement in training and education in perineal trauma, particularly in OASI, is needed for physicians. Perineal trauma that is not included in the Sultan Classification is often misclassified.

Perceptions Toward Healthcare and Dental Care Services among Parents and Caretakers of People with Intellectual Disability (PWID)-A Questionnaire Study.

Aim and Objective: In Malaysia, there was lack of local evidence on the perception of parents/caretakers of people with intellectual disabilities (PWID) about healthcare. Thus, this study aims to assess the perceptions toward healthcare services of parents or caretakers for PWID. Materials and Methods: Online survey using Google Forms was conducted on parents/caretakers of PWID who attended the special care dentistry clinic and special community centers in Kuantan, Pahang. A questionnaire was developed for data collection. Cronbach alpha was conducted to measure the reliability. Content and face validation was performed to establish the validity. Data entry and analysis were done using IBM statistical package for social sciences (SPSS) version 24. This study only involved univariate (descriptive) data analysis in which categorical data were summarized in actual numbers and percentages. Results: The respondents' perceptions toward healthcare access and services were reasonably good; about 50% disagreed and strongly disagreed on having difficulty accessing healthcare facilities. 65% and 55% of parents/caretakers brought PWID for regular health and dental checkups. The majority agreed and strongly agreed (about 73%) that healthcare staff gave equal services and good support and showed positive attitudes toward PWID under their care. Insufficient healthcare information and below-par communication skills remained the main barriers faced by the parents/caretakers of PWID. About 13% of the respondents reported experiencing discrimination in receiving health and dental services for PWID under their care. The Cronbach alpha scores for sections 2 and 4 were 0.892 and 0.681, respectively. Conclusion: Most of the respondents felt that Malaysia's healthcare services for PWID were fairly good. However, it was intriguing to find that some still experienced discrimination. This shows that education about intellectual disability is salient for healthcare workers and should be embedded in the current curriculum.

Dispersive optical solitons and conservation laws of Radhakrishnan-Kundu-Lakshmanan equation with dual-power law nonlinearity.

The current paper implements three elegant approaches to recover a complete spectrum of optical solitons to the Radhakrishnan-Kundu-Lakshmanan equation with dual-power law of nonlinear refractive index. The conservation laws are also recovered by the usage of multipliers approach. The parameter constraints for the existence of such solitons are also enumerated. The numerical simulations of the recovered soliton solutions are also presented.

Two-year trends from the LANDMARC study: A 3-year, pan-India, prospective, longitudinal study on the management and real-world outcome in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus.

INTRODUCTION: There are limited data on the real-world management of diabetes in the Indian population. In this 2-year analysis of the LANDMARC study, the management of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) and related complications were assessed. METHOD: This multicenter, observational, prospective study included adults aged ≥25 to ≤60 years diagnosed with T2DM (duration ≥2 years at enrollment) and controlled/uncontrolled on ≥2 anti-diabetic agents. This interim analysis at 2 years reports the status of glycaemic control, diabetic complications, cardiovascular (CV) risks and therapy, pan-India including metropolitan and non-metropolitan cities. RESULTS: Of the 6234 evaluable patients, 5318 patients completed 2 years in the study. Microvascular complications were observed in 17.6% of patients (1096/6234); macrovascular complications were observed in 3.1% of patients (195/6234). Higher number of microvascular complications were noted in patients from non-metropolitan than in metropolitan cities (p < .0001). In 2 years, an improvement of 0.6% from baseline (8.1%) in mean glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c) was noted; 20.8% of patients met optimum glycaemic control (HbA1c < 7%). Hypertension (2679/3438, 77.9%) and dyslipidaemia (1776/3438, 51.7%) were the predominant CV risk factors in 2 years. The number of patients taking oral anti-diabetic drugs in combination with insulin increased in 2 years (baseline: 1498/6234 [24.0%] vs. 2 years: 1917/5763 [33.3%]). While biguanides and sulfonylureas were the most commonly prescribed, there was an evident increase in the use of dipeptidyl peptidase-IV inhibitors (baseline: 3049/6234, 48.9% vs. 2 years: 3526/5763, 61.2%). CONCLUSION: This longitudinal study represents the control of T2DM, its management and development of complications in Indian population. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: CTRI/2017/05/008452.

Improved delivery of rate-adaptive pacing using an impedance-derived contractility sensor in high-intensity exercise: A case report.

Effective rate-adaptive pacing may be difficult in the presence of atrial fibrillation (AF), and is important during high-intensity exercise. This case presents a 74-year-old elite cyclist with AF and a biventricular pacemaker after atrioventricular (AV) node ablation. He reported sudden breathlessness due to heart rate drops, caused by breaching the artefact threshold on the minute-ventilation sensor. He was exchanged to a generator with an impedance-derived contractility sensor (closed-loop stimulation), resulting in resolution of symptoms, and no further rate drops. This is the first description of the utility of closed-loop stimulation in high-intensity exercise.

Identification of Laboratory Biomarkers for Early Detection and Clinical Management of Post-Acute Syndrome Among Survivors of the 2013-2016 West Africa Ebola Outbreak in Sierra Leone.

Background: The clinical management of persistent medical conditions affecting Ebola survivors, generally described as a post-Ebola syndrome, remains a public health concern. We aimed to analyze Ebola survivors' laboratory biomarkers as compared to their non-infected household relatives to identify biomarkers that could guide the identification of survivors at increased risk of developing severe at odds with the non-severe post-Ebola syndrome. Materials and Methods: Data were extracted from medical records of the Ebola survivors clinic, and we included only Ebola survivor's parameters recorded during the first baseline follow-up visit 2 weeks interval after their second negative PCR result. Moreover, household non-infected family contacts of survivors visiting the clinic during the same period were recruited as community control. Results: The mean age of survivors was 32.65 (IQR: 15.5, 38.25) years, and Ebola IgG immunoglobulin was detected in all, thus confirming their status. The statistical significance (all p < 0.05) observed in monocyte percentage (MONO%), cluster of differentiation 4 percentage (CD4%), alanine aminotransferase (ALT), creatinine (CREA), and creatinine kinase (C-kinase) proved to be clinically significant as compared to the household relatives' group. Interestingly, the linear regression analysis indicated that the duration at ETU was negatively associated with lymphocyte percentage with a 5% lymphocyte decrease per day spent at ETU. Finally, there was a significant (p < 0.05) association between hematological (Hb, PCV, MCV, MCH), biochemical (ALT, CREA, C-kinase, T-cholesterol, triglycerides) parameters and the risk of developing severe complications. Conclusion: We recommend clinicians closely monitor Hb, PCV, MCV, MCH, ALT, CREA, C-kinase, T-cholesterol, triglycerides and lymphocytes as clinically relevant laboratory biomarkers to identify survivors at higher risk of developing severe post-acute syndrome upon discharge from Ebola treatment unit including headache, abdominal pain, chest pain, ocular complication, arthralgia, hearing difficulty and erectile dysfunction which can impact health-related quality of life among Ebola survivors.

Postpartum perineal wound infection and its effect on anal sphincter integrity: Results of a prospective observational study.

INTRODUCTION: Perineal wound infection can affect tissues at superficial, deep, and organ space levels. Women with obstetric anal sphincter injuries (OASIS) are at risk of infection; however, no study to date has investigated if infection can extend to affect the anal sphincter integrity. The aim of this study was to evaluate the clinical progression of perineal wound infection and its effect on the anal sphincter in women with or without OASIS using three-dimensional endoanal ultrasound (3D-EAUS). MATERIAL AND METHODS: Women were recruited into the Prospective Observational Study Evaluating the Sonographic Appearance of the Anal Sphincter in Women With Perineal Wound Infection Following Vaginal Delivery (PERINEAL Study) between August 2020 and August 2021 (NCT04480684). 3D-EAUS was performed weekly until complete wound healing. Significant bacterial colonization was diagnosed using the MolecuLight i:X camera. The primary study outcome was a change in a sphincter defect angle from baseline (wound infection) until wound healing. A robust Poisson regression model was used to analyze the effect of significant bacterial loads on the anal sphincter. RESULTS: Seventy-three women were included. A median of two ultrasound scans were performed in each patient (range 1-16). Five women (6.8%) had an OASI clinically diagnosed at delivery. In total, 250 EAUS were performed. An external anal sphincter defect was found on EAUS in 55 (22.0%) scans (n = 10 women). An external anal sphincter and internal anal sphincter defect was found in 26 scans (10.4%) (n = 3 women). During the course of the wound healing process, there was no significant change in defect size in wounds with or without significant bacterial colonization. In cases of an intact anal sphincter, wound infection did not disrupt its integrity. CONCLUSIONS: We found that perineal wound infection does not disrupt an intact anal sphincter or OASIS. This new information can provide important information for clinicians and patients. As there are myths frequently encountered in cases of litigation when disruption of sphincter integrity is attributed to perineal infection, the findings of this study should be tested in larger studies in the future.

The incidence of anal incontinence following obstetric anal sphincter injury graded using the Sultan classification: a network meta-analysis.

OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to systematically determine and compare the incidence of anal incontinence between those with different grades of obstetric anal sphincter injury. DATA SOURCES: Ovid MEDLINE, Embase, and the Cochrane Library were searched from January 2000 to April 2021. STUDY ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA: Observational studies investigating the incidence of anal incontinence following an obstetric anal sphincter injury that was graded using the Sultan classification were eligible for inclusion. To allow comparison between individual tear grades (3a, 3b, 3c, fourth), a network meta-analysis was performed using Stata (version 15.1). METHODS: For binary outcomes, odds ratios with corresponding 95% confidence intervals were reported. Obstetric anal sphincter injury grades were ranked from the best clinical outcome to the worst clinical outcome. The percentage chance of each grade taking each rank with regards to outcome was calculated. Study quality and risk of bias was assessed using the relevant tool from the Joanna Briggs Institute. RESULTS: Of the 696 studies identified, 10 were eligible for inclusion and were included in the network meta-analysis (n=2467 women). The mean incidence of anal incontinence among those with 3a tears was 22.4% (range, 6.1%-51.2%), 24.9% (range, 6.9%-46.7%) among those with 3b tears, 26.8% (range, 0%-55.6%) among those with 3c tears, and 28.6% (0%-71.4%) among those with fourth-degree tears. Anal incontinence incidence was found to be significantly higher among those with 3c (odds ratio, 1.79; 95% confidence interval, 1.09-2.94) and fourth-degree tears (odds ratio, 2.37; 95% confidence interval, 1.40-4.02) than among those with 3a tears. In addition, anal incontinence incidence was significantly higher among those with fourth-degree tears (odds ratio, 1.89; 95% confidence interval, 1.10-3.22) than among those with 3b tears. Those with 3a tears had the highest probability of having the best clinical outcome; those with 3b; second-, 3c; third- and fourth-degree tears had the highest probability of having the worst clinical outcome. Overall, all studies had a high or unclear risk of bias across 1 or more assessed element. CONCLUSION: This was a network meta-analysis comparing the incidence of anal incontinence among those with different grades of obstetric anal sphincter injury. Increasing tear-grade severity is associated with worse clinical outcomes. This study provides useful, clinically applicable information that can assist clinicians in the counseling of women following an obstetric anal sphincter injury. In addition, it highlights the importance of accurately diagnosing the obstetric anal sphincter injury grade and subsequently performing the appropriate repair.

Getting the size right: Are clinicians ready for it?

Objectives Digital examination has many uses in obstetrics and gynaecology, including cervical assessment in labour and measuring for vaginal pessaries. Clinicians must be adequately trained to perform accurate digital assessments and use this information to make decisions. We aimed to evaluate the accuracy of a clinician's estimate for three different measuring tasks and assess whether there was any difference in the accuracy in relation to seniority or job role. Study design Doctors and midwives were recruited from two perineal trauma training events. Estimates and measurements for three different activities were recorded: length of own index finger, length of an anal sphincter model and cervical dilatation at two different dilatations (7 cm and 9 cm) using a pocket guide cervical dilatation tool. The results were analysed for accuracy of measurements according to job role and seniority. Results A total of 369 participants took part. Only 4.6% of participants accurately (to 0.1 cm) estimated the length of their index finger (0% of midwives and 5.5% of doctors). There was a significant difference (p < 0.05) when comparing average differences between estimated and actual lengths measured for doctors and midwives for almost all measurements. When comparing doctors based on seniority there was no significant difference in the accuracy of estimated lengths. A higher percentage of midwives than doctors were accurate at both 7 cm (22% vs 16.1%) and 9 cm (30.5% vs 29.5%) dilated. Conclusion We found that accuracy was poor for both doctors and midwives when asked to estimate various measurements. We suggest that training will improve awareness of finger length and therefore improve accuracy when performing digital examinations in clinical practice.

Bacterial autofluorescence in infected perineal wounds: A prospective cohort study.

Diagnosis of perineal wound infection based solely on clinical signs and symptoms is subjective, and often incorrectly identifies wounds with clinically significant bacterial loads. New advances in wound care such as bacterial fluorescence imaging allow point-of -care assessment of bacterial burden. This single-center, prospective observational study included 80 women with perineal wound infection and aimed to determine the incidence of significant bacterial colonization identified with bacterial fluorescence imaging. Also, to evaluate the diagnostic accuracy of bacterial fluorescence imaging. 30 women (37.5%) had fluorescence in their wounds despite antibiotic therapy. The sensitivity of bacterial fluorescence imaging in the diagnosis of wounds with a clinically significant bacterial burden was 83% and specificity was 90%. The positive predictive value was 92% and negative predictive value was 80%. Overall, diagnostic accuracy was substantial. The results of this study demonstrate that bacterial fluorescence imaging can provide real-time information surrounding the bacterial burden of perineal wounds. ClinicalTrials.gov NCT04480684.