Dramatic improvements in outcome following pancreatoduodenectomy for pancreatic and periampullary cancers.

BACKGROUND: Pancreatoduodenectomy is the only cure for cancers of the pancreas and the periampullary region but has considerable operative complications and uncertain prognosis. Our goal was to analyse temporal improvements and provide contemporary population-based benchmarks for outcomes following pancreatoduodenectomy. METHODS: We empanelled a cohort comprising all patients in Sweden with pancreatic or periampullary cancer treated with pancreatoduodenectomy from 1964 to 2016 and achieved complete follow-up through 2016. We analysed postoperative deaths and disease-specific net survival. RESULTS: We analysed 5923 patients with cancer of the pancreas (3876), duodenum (444), bile duct (504), or duodenal papilla (963) who underwent classic (3332) or modified (1652) Whipple's procedure or total pancreatectomy (803). Postoperative deaths declined from 17.2% in the 1960s to 1.6% in the contemporary time period (2010-2016). For all four cancer types, median, 1-year and 5-year survival improved substantially over time. Among patients operated between 2010 and 2016, 5-year survival was 29.0% (95% confidence interval (CI): 25.5, 33.0) for pancreatic cancer, 71.2% (95% CI: 62.9, 80.5) for duodenal cancer, 30.8% (95% CI: 23.0, 41.3) for bile duct cancer, and 62.7% (95% CI: 55.5, 70.8) for duodenal papilla cancer. CONCLUSION: There is a continuous and substantial improvement in the benefit-harm ratio after pancreatoduodenectomy for cancer.

Association of tea and coffee consumption and biliary tract cancer risk: The Biliary Tract Cancers Pooling Project.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Tea and coffee are widely consumed beverages worldwide. We evaluated their association with biliary tract cancer (BTC) incidence. APPROACH AND RESULTS: We pooled data from 15 studies in the Biliary Tract Cancers Pooling Project to evaluate associations between tea and coffee consumption and biliary tract cancer development. We categorized participants as nondrinkers (0 cup/day), moderate drinkers (>0 and <3 cups/day), and heavy drinkers (≥3 cups/day). We estimated multivariable HRs and 95% CIs using Cox models. During 29,911,744 person-years of follow-up, 851 gallbladder, 588 intrahepatic bile duct, 753 extrahepatic bile duct, and 458 ampulla of Vater cancer cases were diagnosed. Individuals who drank tea showed a statistically significantly lower incidence rate of gallbladder cancer (GBC) relative to tea nondrinkers (HR=0.77; 95% CI, 0.64-0.91), and intrahepatic bile duct cancer (IHBDC) had an inverse association (HR=0.81; 95% CI, 0.66-1.00). However, no associations were observed for extrahepatic bile duct cancer (EHBDC) or ampulla of Vater cancer (AVC). In contrast, coffee consumption was positively associated with GBC, with a higher incidence rate for individuals consuming more coffee (HR<3 cups/day =1.29; 95% CI, 1.01-1.66; HR≥3 cups/day =1.49; 95% CI, 1.11-1.99, Ptrend=0.01) relative to coffee nondrinkers. However, there was no association between coffee consumption and GBC when restricted to coffee drinkers. There was little evidence of associations between coffee consumption and other biliary tract cancers. CONCLUSIONS: Tea consumption was associated with a lower incidence of GBC and possibly IHBDC. Further research is warranted to replicate the observed positive association between coffee and GBC.

Incidence of oncogenic HPV infection in women with and without mental illness: A population-based cohort study in Sweden.

BACKGROUND: Women with mental illness experience an increased risk of cervical cancer. The excess risk is partly due to low participation in cervical screening; however, it remains unknown whether it is also attributable to an increased risk of infection with human papillomavirus (HPV). We aimed to examine whether women with mental illness had an increased infection rate of HPV compared to women without mental illness. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Using a cohort design, we analyzed all 337,116 women aged 30 to 64 and living in Stockholm, who had a negative test result of 14 high-risk HPV subtypes in HPV-based screening, during August 2014 to December 2019. We defined women as exposed to mental illness if they had a specialist diagnosis of mental disorder or had a filled prescription of psychotropic medication. We identified incident infection of any high-risk HPV during follow-up and fitted multivariable Cox models to estimate hazard ratios (HR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI) for HPV infection. A total of 3,263 women were tested positive for high-risk HPV during follow-up (median: 2.21 years; range: 0 to 5.42 years). The absolute infection rate of HPV was higher among women with a specialist diagnosis of mental disorder (HR = 1.45; 95% CI [1.34, 1.57]; p < 0.001) or a filled prescription of psychotropic medication (HR = 1.67; 95% CI [1.55, 1.79]; p < 0.001), compared to women without such. The increment in absolute infection rate was noted for depression, anxiety, stress-related disorder, substance-related disorder, and ADHD, and for use of antidepressants, anxiolytics, sedatives, and hypnotics, and was consistent across age groups. The main limitations included selection of the female population in Stockholm as they must have at least 1 negative test result of HPV, and relatively short follow-up as HPV-based screening was only introduced in 2014 in Stockholm. CONCLUSIONS: Mental illness is associated with an increased infection rate of high-risk HPV in women. Our findings motivate refined approaches to facilitate the WHO elimination agenda of cervical cancer among these marginalized women worldwide.

Effectiveness of Colonoscopy Screening vs Sigmoidoscopy Screening in Colorectal Cancer.

Importance: Randomized clinical screening trials have shown that sigmoidoscopy screening reduces colorectal cancer (CRC) incidence and mortality. Colonoscopy has largely replaced sigmoidoscopy for CRC screening, but long-term results from randomized trials on colonoscopy screening are still lacking. Objective: To estimate the additional screening benefit of colonoscopy compared with sigmoidoscopy. Design, Setting, and Participants: This comparative effectiveness simulation study pooled data on 358 204 men and women randomly assigned to sigmoidoscopy screening or usual care in 4 randomized sigmoidoscopy screening trials conducted in Norway, Italy, the US, and UK with inclusion periods in the years 1993 to 2001. The primary analysis of the study was conducted from January 19 to December 30, 2021. Intervention: Invitation to endoscopic screening. Main Outcomes and Measures: Primary outcomes were CRC incidence and mortality. Using pooled 15-year follow-up data, colonoscopy screening effectiveness was estimated assuming that the efficacy of colonoscopy in the proximal colon was similar to that observed in the distal colon in the sigmoidoscopy screening trials. The simulation model was validated using data from Norwegian participants in a colonoscopy screening trial. Results: This analysis included 358 204 individuals (181 971 women [51%]) aged 55 to 64 years at inclusion with a median follow-up time ranging from 15 to 17 years. Compared with usual care, colonoscopy prevented an estimated 50 (95% CI, 42-58) CRC cases per 100 000 person-years, corresponding to 30% incidence reduction (rate ratio, 0.70 [95% CI, 0.66-0.75]), and prevented an estimated 15 (95% CI, 11-19) CRC deaths per 100 000 person-years, corresponding to 32% mortality reduction (rate ratio, 0.68 [95% CI, 0.61-0.76]). The additional benefit of colonoscopy screening compared with sigmoidoscopy was 12 (95% CI, 10-14) fewer CRC cases and 4 (95% CI, 3-5) fewer CRC deaths per 100 000 person-years, corresponding to percentage point reductions of 6.9 (95% CI, 6.0-7.9) for CRC incidence and 7.6 (95% CI, 5.7-9.6) for CRC mortality. The number needed to switch from sigmoidoscopy to colonoscopy screening was 560 (95% CI, 486-661) to prevent 1 CRC case and 1611 (95% CI, 1275-2188) to prevent 1 CRC death. Conclusions and Relevance: The findings of this comparative effectiveness study assessing long-term follow-up after CRC screening suggest that there was an additional preventive effect on CRC incidence and mortality associated with colonoscopy screening compared with sigmoidoscopy screening, but the additional preventive effect was less than what was achieved by introducing sigmoidoscopy screening where no screening existed. The results probably represent the upper limit of what may be achieved with colonoscopy screening compared with sigmoidoscopy screening.

BMI and breast cancer risk around age at menopause.

BACKGROUND: A high body mass index (BMI, kg/m2) is associated with decreased risk of breast cancer before menopause, but increased risk after menopause. Exactly when this reversal occurs in relation to menopause is unclear. Locating that change point could provide insight into the role of adiposity in breast cancer etiology. METHODS: We examined the association between BMI and breast cancer risk in the Premenopausal Breast Cancer Collaborative Group, from age 45 up to breast cancer diagnosis, loss to follow-up, death, or age 55, whichever came first. Analyses included 609,880 women in 16 prospective studies, including 9956 who developed breast cancer before age 55. We fitted three BMI hazard ratio (HR) models over age-time: constant, linear, or nonlinear (via splines), applying piecewise exponential additive mixed models, with age as the primary time scale. We divided person-time into four strata: premenopause; postmenopause due to natural menopause; postmenopause because of interventional loss of ovarian function (bilateral oophorectomy (BO) or chemotherapy); postmenopause due to hysterectomy without BO. Sensitivity analyses included stratifying by BMI in young adulthood, or excluding women using menopausal hormone therapy. RESULTS: The constant BMI HR model provided the best fit for all four menopausal status groups. Under this model, the estimated association between a five-unit increment in BMI and breast cancer risk was HR=0.87 (95% CI: 0.85, 0.89) before menopause, HR=1.00 (95% CI: 0.96, 1.04) after natural menopause, HR=0.99 (95% CI: 0.93, 1.05) after interventional loss of ovarian function, and HR=0.88 (95% CI: 0.76, 1.02) after hysterectomy without BO. CONCLUSION: The BMI breast cancer HRs remained less than or near one during the 45-55 year age range indicating that the transition to a positive association between BMI and risk occurs after age 55.

Ideal cardiovascular health and risk of death in a large Swedish cohort.

BACKGROUND: Ideal cardiovascular health (CVH) can be assessed by 7 metrics: smoking, body mass index, physical activity, diet, hypertension, dyslipidemia and diabetes, proposed by the American Heart Association. We examined the association of ideal CVH metrics with risk of all-cause, CVD and non-CVD death in a large cohort. METHODS: A total of 29,557 participants in the Swedish National March Cohort were included in this study. We ascertained 3,799 deaths during a median follow-up of 19 years. Cox regression models were used to estimate hazard ratios with 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs) of the association between CVH metrics with risk of death. Laplace regression was used to estimate 25th, 50th and 75th percentiles of age at death. RESULTS: Compared with those having 6-7 ideal CVH metrics, participants with 0-2 ideal metrics had 107% (95% CI = 46-192%) excess risk of all-cause, 224% (95% CI = 72-509%) excess risk of CVD and 108% (31-231%) excess risk of non-CVD death. The median age at death among those with 6-7 vs. 0-2 ideal metrics was extended by 4.2 years for all-causes, 5.8 years for CVD and 2.9 years for non-CVD, respectively. The observed associations were stronger among females than males. CONCLUSIONS: The strong inverse association between number of ideal CVH metrics and risk of death supports the application of the proposed seven metrics for individual risk assessment and general health promotion.

Nordic Nutrition Recommendations and risk of myocardial infarction and stroke: a prospective cohort study.

PURPOSE: The Nordic Nutrition Recommendations (NNR) are developed to prevent diet-related diseases. This study aimed to examine adherence to the NNR and risk of myocardial infarction (MI) and stroke among women and men in Sweden. METHODS: We followed 34,898 adults from 1997 to 2016. Dietary intake was assessed once at baseline using a food frequency questionnaire. Adherence scores corresponding to NNR-editions from 2023, 2012, 2004 and 1996 were calculated. Scores were categorized into low (reference category), moderate and high adherence. Cox proportional hazards regression models adjusted for potential confounders were used to estimate hazards ratios (HR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI). RESULTS: We identified 1649 incident cases of MI and 2071 incident cases of stroke during follow-up (mean 17.9 years). For each 1-point increase in the NNR2023-score (range 0-9), the rate of MI decreased by 14% (HR: 0.86; 95% CI 0.78-0.95). High adherence was associated with a lower rate of MI (HR: 0.72; 95% CI 0.59-0.87) (p-trend = 0.01). Moderate adherence was associated with a lower rate of stroke (HR: 0.88; 95% CI 0.78-0.99) (p-trend = 0.31). Among women, a 23% lower rate of MI (HR: 0.77; 95% CI 0.67-0.89) was observed for each 1-point increase, and high adherence was associated with a lower rate of MI (HR: 0.59; 95% CI 0.45-0.78). No associations were found in men. The results were similar, though attenuated, for earlier NNR-editions. CONCLUSION: Adherence to the NNR was associated with a reduced risk of MI. This association was more pronounced among women than among men and in more recent NNR-editions. The findings for stroke need further investigation.

Host genetic variants, Epstein-Barr virus subtypes, and the risk of nasopharyngeal carcinoma: Assessment of interaction and mediation.

Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) and human leukocyte antigen (HLA) polymorphisms are well-known risk factors for nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC). However, the combined effects between HLA and EBV on the risk of NPC are unknown. We applied a causal inference framework to disentangle interaction and mediation effects between two host HLA SNPs, rs2860580 and rs2894207, and EBV variant 163364 with a population-based case-control study in NPC-endemic southern China. We discovered the strong interaction effects between the high-risk EBV subtype and both HLA SNPs on NPC risk (rs2860580, relative excess risk due to interaction [RERI] = 4.08, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 2.03-6.14; rs2894207, RERI = 3.37, 95% CI = 1.59-5.15), accounting for the majority of genetic risk effects. These results indicate that HLA genes and the high-risk EBV have joint effects on NPC risk. Prevention strategies targeting the high-risk EBV subtype would largely reduce NPC risk associated with EBV and host genetic susceptibility.

Association of hormonal and reproductive factors with differentiated thyroid cancer risk in women: a pooled prospective cohort analysis.

BACKGROUND: The incidence of differentiated thyroid cancer (DTC) is higher in women than in men but whether sex steroid hormones contribute to this difference remains unclear. Studies of reproductive and hormonal factors and thyroid cancer risk have provided inconsistent results. METHODS: Original data from 1 252 907 women in 16 cohorts in North America, Europe, Australia and Asia were combined to evaluate associations of DTC risk with reproductive and hormonal factors. Multivariable-adjusted Cox proportional hazard models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% CIs. RESULTS: During follow-up, 2142 women were diagnosed with DTC. Factors associated with higher risk of DTC included younger age at menarche (<10 vs 10-11 years; HR, 1.28; 95% CI, 1.00-1.64), younger (<40; HR, 1.31; 95% CI, 1.05-1.62) and older (≥55; HR, 1.33; 95% CI, 1.05-1.68) ages at menopause (vs 40-44 years), ever use of menopausal hormone therapy (HR, 1.16; 95% CI, 1.02-1.33) and previous hysterectomy (HR, 1.25; 95% CI, 1.13-1.39) or bilateral oophorectomy (HR, 1.14; 95% CI, 1.00-1.29). Factors associated with lower risk included longer-term use (≥5 vs <5 years) of oral contraceptives (HR, 0.86; 95% CI, 0.76-0.96) among those who ever used oral contraception and baseline post-menopausal status (HR, 0.82; 95% CI, 0.70-0.96). No associations were observed for parity, duration of menopausal hormone therapy use or lifetime number of reproductive years or ovulatory cycles. CONCLUSIONS: Our study provides some evidence linking reproductive and hormonal factors with risk of DTC. Results should be interpreted cautiously considering the modest strength of the associations and potential for exposure misclassification and detection bias. Prospective studies of pre-diagnostic circulating sex steroid hormone measurements and DTC risk may provide additional insight.