Application of the UNAIDS Incidence Patterns Model to Determine the Distribution of New HIV Infection in Lagos State, Nigeria.

BACKGROUND: Identifying patterns in the distribution of new HIV infections in the population is critical for HIV programmatic interventions. This study aimed to determine the distribution of New HIV infection by applying the incidence patterns mathematical model to data from Lagos state. METHODS: The incidence patterns model (IPM) software is a mathematical model developed by UNAIDS to estimate the demographic and epidemic patterns of HIV infections. This model was adapted in Lagos state to predict the distribution of new HIV infections among specified risk groups in the next 12 months. RESULTS: The IPM predicted a total HIV incidence of 37 cases per 100 000 individuals (3979 new infections) will occur among the 15 to 49 subpopulations. The results also showed that sero-concordant HIV-negative couples with external partners (29%), female sex workers (26%), men-having-sex-with-men (18%), and previously married females (6%) accounted for the majority of the estimated new HIV infections. Overall, key populations constitute almost half (48%) of the estimated number of new HIV infections. CONCLUSION: The study helped to identify the population groups contributing significantly to new HIV infections. Therefore, priority interventions should be focused on these groups.

Health-related quality of life among adults newly diagnosed with pulmonary tuberculosis in Lagos State, Nigeria: a prospective study.

PURPOSE: Tuberculosis (TB) has far-reaching effects on the social, mental, and emotional well-being of patients and consequently, their health-related quality of life (HRQOL). Few studies in Nigeria have examined changes in quality of life over the course of treatment. changes in (PTB) and factors associated with HRQOL. METHODS: A prospective cohort study was conducted with patients recruited from health facilities in Lagos State. The World Health Organization Quality of Life Instrument, Short-Form (WHOQOL-BREF) was used to assess HRQOL. A semi-structured questionnaire was also administered to elicit information on socio-demographic characteristics and the medical and social history of the respondents. Data were analysed using Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS) version 23. A repeated measures analysis of variance (ANOVA) test with polynomial contrasts was used to assess how domain scores varied over time. Multivariable analysis was conducted using generalized estimating equations (GEE) to assess change in HRQOL and its predictors. RESULTS: Two hundred and ten patients, predominantly male [108 (63.3%)] were recruited. The mean age was 36.7 ± 12.3 years. The HRQOL was impaired in all four domains at baseline. However, HRQOL scores increased over the treatment period with the largest improvement being in the 'environment' domain, where mean scores increased from 45.27 ± 14.59 to 61.28 ± 15.86. The proportion of respondents that expressed satisfaction with their health increased from 13.5% at baseline to 55.7% at the end of treatment. Low socio-economic status, delay in presentation, and an HIV-positive status were found to be significantly associated with reduced HRQOL at baseline (p < 0.05). In the multivariable longitudinal analysis, patients who were employed had higher HRQOL scores while persistent symptoms and a delay in presentation (≥ 4 weeks) were negatively associated with change in HRQOL scores over the course of treatment. CONCLUSION: The HRQOL of respondents progressively improved over the six-month treatment period. However, change in HRQOL was influenced by a delay in presentation and persistence of symptoms. The study also highlights the need for increased recognition of patient-reported outcomes as an adjunct outcome measure.

Challenges in conducting population-based seroepidemiology survey of COVID-19 in Lagos State, Nigeria.

Population-based study is known to be a very essential type of study during and after a pandemic or epidemic, as it provides crucial information on the incidence, prevalence, and risk factors of the disease in question. There has been limited information about the challenges faced in conducting such surveys in Nigeria. In this paper, we will share our experience, and describe the challenges faced in conducting a population-based seroepidemiological study of COVID-19 in Lagos, Nigeria. Some challenges were peculiar to specific Local Government Areas (LGAs) while others were general. The challenges include general misconceptions of community members about health research, difficulties in mapping houses, planning for data collection, standardizing data collection, working in hard-to-reach communities when resources were limited as well as difficulty in collection of blood and naso-oropharyngeal swabs. Ways of overcoming these problems, lessons learnt, and recommendations are hereby discussed.

Factors associated with risky sexual behaviour among clients undertaking HIV testing and counselling services at a secondary referral hospital Lagos, Nigeria.

Background: This study determined the prevalence of risky sexual behaviour and its associated factors among clients who accessed HIV counselling and testing services at a secondary referral hospital in Lagos, Nigeria. Methods: A retrospective review of clients' records was conducted. The Client Intake Form of people who accessed HIV counselling and testing services at Mainland Hospital in Lagos, Nigeria between July 1, 2016, and December 31, 2017, were reviewed. Multivariate analysis was conducted to determine the associated factors of risky sexual behaviour. Results: A total of 4273 client's records were analyzed, 3884 (90.9%) reported having sex before HIV counselling and testing (HCT). The prevalence of risky sexual behaviour among clients was 41.5%. More males and HIV positive clients had unprotected sex with a casual partner three months before HIV counselling and testing (p < 0.05). More singles than the married had unprotected sex with casual partners (p <0.001) and multiple sexual partners (p =0.002). The prevalence of risky sexual behaviour reduced with advancing age. Being single and having an HIV infection were associated with risky sexual behaviour in this study. Conclusion: Age, marital status and HIV status were associated factors of risky sexual behaviour.

Use of modern contraceptives in Lagos Nigeria during the COVID-19 pandemic.

We estimated modern contraceptive prevalence rate (mCPR) and examined predictors of modern contraceptives utilization amongst 1,445 sampled reproductive age women in Lagos (Nigeria's epicenter) during the devastating COVID-19 pandemic. Estimated mCPR was 30.8%. Women aged 20-29 years were 50% (95%CI:0.37-0.71) less likely to use modern contraceptives during the pandemic than those 30-39 years. Married and divorced women were about three (95%CI:1.37-5.25) and over three (95%CI:1.32-7.79) times more likely to use modern contraceptives compared to single women. Though mCPR has not reduced, sustained contraceptive needs assessment of sometimes obscure sub-populations is required, especially if outbreaks like COVID-19 become our 'new normal'.

Morbidity and mortality outcomes of COVID-19 patients with and without hypertension in Lagos, Nigeria: a retrospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: The current pandemic of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has shown epidemiological and clinical characteristics that appear worsened in hypertensive patients. The morbidity and mortality of the disease among hypertensive patients in Africa have yet to be well described. METHODS: In this retrospective cohort study all confirmed COVID-19 adult patients (≥18 years of age) in Lagos between February 27 to July 62,020 were included. Demographic, clinical and outcome data were extracted from electronic medical records of patients admitted at the COVID-19 isolation centers in Lagos. Outcomes included dying, being discharged after recovery or being evacuated/transferred. Descriptive statistics considered proportions, means and medians. The Chi-square and Fisher's exact tests were used in determining associations between variables. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis and Cox regression were performed to quantify the risk of worse outcomes among hypertensives with COVID-19 and adjust for confounders. P-value ≤0.05 was considered statistically significant. RESULTS: A total of 2075 adults with COVID-19 were included in this study. The prevalence of hypertension, the most common comorbidity, was 17.8% followed by diabetes (7.2%) and asthma (2.0%). Overall mortality was 4.2% while mortality among the hypertensives was 13.7%. Severe symptoms and mortality were significantly higher among the hypertensives and survival rates were significantly lowered by the presence of additional comorbidity to 50% from 91% for those with hypertension alone and from 98% for all other patients (P < 0.001). After adjustment for confounders (age and sex), severe COVID-19and death were higher for hypertensives {severe/critical illness: HR = 2.41, P = 0.001, 95%CI = 1.4-4.0, death: HR = 2.30, P = 0.001, 95%CI = 1.2-4.6, for those with hypertension only} {severe/critical illness: HR = 3.76, P = 0.001, 95%CI = 2.1-6.4, death: crude HR = 6.63, P = 0.001, 95%CI = 3.4-1.6, for those with additional comorbidities}. Hypertension posed an increased risk of severe morbidity (approx. 4-fold) and death (approx. 7-fold) from COVID-19 in the presence of multiple comorbidities. CONCLUSION: The potential morbidity and mortality risks of hypertension especially with other comorbidities in COVID-19 could help direct efforts towards prevention and prognostication. This provides the rationale for improving preventive caution for people with hypertension and other comorbidities and prioritizing them for future antiviral interventions.

Psychosocial health effects of Covid-19 infection on persons in treatment centers in Lagos, Nigeria.

INTRODUCTION: Prior research has highlighted the psychosocial impact of infectious diseases on individuals and the community at large. However, little is known about the psychosocial implications of COVID-19. This study set out to determine the rate as well as correlates of anxiety and depressive symptoms among persons managed as in-patients for COVID-19 in Lagos, Nigeria. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We conducted an online survey between April to June ending 2020 using a consecutive sampling technique of persons positive for COVID-19 and who were managed as in-patients across five (5) treatment centres in Lagos, Nigeria. The survey collected information on demographic as well as clinical data including suicidality. Anxiety and depressive symptoms were assessed using the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS). RESULTS: There were one hundred and sixty participants in total. The mean age of respondents was 36.4 (±9.7) years with a higher proportion (56.9%) being males. With regards to diagnosis, 28.1% and 27.5% of the respondents were categorised as probable cases of depression and anxiety respectively, while 3.8% respondents reported suicidal ideation. Majority of the respondents (61.9%) reported the fear of infecting their loved ones. The variables that showed association with psychiatric morbidity were a past history of an emotional concern, employment status, guilt about infecting others and boredom. CONCLUSION: This study revealed a high burden of psychological/psychiatric morbidity among persons treated for COVID-19, particularly persons who have had prior emotional concerns. The findings from this study reiterate the need to pay attention to the mental health of people during disease outbreaks and to incorporate psychosocial interventions as part of the management package.

Outcomes of COVID-19 patients with comorbidities in southwest Nigeria.

BACKGROUND: Data on the comorbidities that result in negative outcomes for people with COVID-19 are currently scarce for African populations. This study identifies comorbidities that predict death among a large sample of COVID-19 patients from Nigeria. METHODS: This was a retrospective analysis of medical records for 2184 laboratory confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Lagos, southwest Nigeria. Extracted data included age, sex, severity of condition at presentation and self-reported comorbidities. The outcomes of interest were death or discharge from facility. RESULTS: Most of the cases were male (65.8%) and the median age was 43 years (IQR: 33-55). Four hundred and ninety-two patients (22.5%) had at least one comorbidity and the most common amongst them were hypertension (74.2%) and diabetes (30.3%). The mortality rate was 3.3% and a significantly higher proportion of patients with comorbidities died compared to those with none. The comorbidities that predicted death were hypertension (OR: 2.21, 95%CI: 1.22-4.01), diabetes (OR: 3.69, 95% CI: 1.99-6.85), renal disease (OR: 12.53, 95%CI: 1.97-79.56), cancer (OR: 14.12, 95% CI: 2.03-98.19) and HIV (OR: 1.77-84.15]. CONCLUSION: Comorbidities are prevalent and the associated risk of death is high among COVID-19 patients in Lagos, Nigeria. Public enlightenment, early identification and targeted care for COVID-19 cases with comorbidities are recommended as the pandemic evolves.

Presenting Symptoms and Predictors of Poor Outcomes Among 2,184 Patients with COVID-19 in Lagos State, Nigeria.

INTRODUCTION: Lagos state remains the epicentre of COVID-19 in Nigeria. We describe the symptoms and signs of the first 2,184 PCR-confirmed COVID-19 patients admitted at COVID-19 treatment centers in Lagos State. We also assessed the relationship between patients' presenting symptoms, sociodemographic and clinical characteristics and COVID-19 deaths.. METHODS: Medical records of PCR-confirmed COVID-19 patients were extracted and analyzed for their symptoms, symptom severity, presence of comorbidities and outcome. RESULTS: The ages of the patients ranged from 4 days to 98 years with a mean of 43.0(16.0) years. Of the patients who presented with symptoms, cough (19.3%) was the most common presenting symptom. This was followed by fever (13.7%) and difficulty in breathing, (10.9%). The most significant clinical predictor of death was the severity of symptoms and signs at presentation. Difficulty in breathing was the most significant symptom predictor of COVID-19 death (OR:19.26 95% CI 10.95-33.88). The case fatality rate was 4.3%. CONCLUSION: Primary care physicians and COVID-19 frontline workers should maintain a high index of suspicion and prioritize the care of patients presenting with these symptoms. Community members should be educated on such predictors and ensure that patients with these symptoms seek care early to reduce the risk of deaths associated with COVID-19.

Predictive ability of symptomatology in COVID-19 during Active case search in Lagos State, Nigeria.

BACKGROUND: In April 2020, a community-based active case search surveillance system of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) was developed by the emergency outbreak committee in Lagos State. This followed the evidence of community transmission of coronavirus disease in the twenty Local Government Areas in Lagos State. This study assessed the value of respiratory and other symptoms in predicting positive SARS-CoV-2 using reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR). It is hoped that if symptoms are predictive, they can be used in screening before testing. METHODS: Communities were included based on the alerts from community members through the rumour alert system set up by the state. All members of the households of the communities from where the alert came were eligible. Household members who declined to participate were excluded from the study. A standardised interviewer-administered electronic investigation form was used to collect sociodemographic information, clinical details and history for each possible case. Data was analysed to see the extent of agreement or correlation between reported symptoms and the results of PCR testing for SARS-COV-2. RESULTS: A total of 12,739 persons were interviewed. The most common symptoms were fever, general weakness, cough and difficulty in breathing. Different symptoms recorded different levels of sensitivity as follows: fever, 28.9%; cough, 21.7%; general body weakness, 10.9%; and sore throat, 10.9%. Sensitivity and specificity for fever, the most common symptom, were 28.3% and 50.2%, respectively, while similar parameters for general body weakness, the next most common symptom, were 10.9% and 73.2%, respectively. CONCLUSION: From these findings, the predictive ability of symptoms for COVID-19 diagnosis was extremely weak. It is unlikely that symptoms alone will suffice to predict COVID-19 in a patient. An additional measure, such as confirmatory test by RT-PCR testing, is necessary to confirm the disease.

Health literacy: Prevalence and determinants in Lagos State, Nigeria.

BACKGROUND: Poor health literacy has been associated with poorer physical and mental health function, and higher emergency department and hospital utilizations. The study was conducted to measure the prevalence of health literacy and its determinants among Lagos State residents. METHODS: A descriptive cross-sectional study was conducted in three local government areas in Lagos State. Health literacy was assessed using the Brief Health Literacy Screening tool (BHLS), a three-item tool with possible scores ranging between 3 and 15. Health literacy was classified as inadequate (≤ 9) or adequate (>9). RESULTS: A total of 1831 respondents participated in the study, among whom, 952 (52%) were women. The mean age of respondents was 31.7 (±10.5) years. Three-quarters (74.8%) of respondents had adequate health literacy. Adequate levels of health literacy were associated with being female (OR, 1.35; 95% CI, 1.07-1.71), frequent use of the broad cast media as source of information (OR, 1.33; 95% CI, 1.03-1.70), frequent use of the internet as source of information (OR, 1.49; 95% CI, 1.13-1.96). Adequate health literacy was also associated with having knowledge of a frequently prescribed antibiotic (OR, 1.67; 95% CI, 1.32-2.12) and being more comfortable with the use of the English language (OR, 1.71; 95% CI, 1.32-2.22). CONCLUSION: Gender, the use of broadcast media and the internet are predictive of adequate health literacy and should be taken into consideration in planning health interventions.

Challenges of Tuberculosis Control in Lagos State, Nigeria: A Qualitative Study of Health-Care Providers' Perspectives.

BACKGROUND: Tuberculosis (TB) burden in Nigeria is a reflection of the challenges of TB control strategy in the country. This study explored the challenges encountered by the health workers in public and private TB treatment centers in Lagos, Nigeria. METHODS: In-depth interviews were held with 34 health workers providing TB services in private and public health facilities and the Lagos state Program Officer between October 1, 2016 and January 31, 2017. The transcripts were read severally and coded for qualitative data analysis. Themes were developed from coding. RESULTS: Insufficient or lack of funds to track patients lost to follow-up, conduct home visits, collect drugs from the central stores, and shortage of laboratory reagents were some of the logistical challenges encountered by the health workers. There was shortage of health workers and some were yet to be trained resulting in work overload. This was situation aggravated by the frequent redeployment and health worker attrition in the public and private sector respectively. CONCLUSION: The government need be proactive and show leadership by finding lasting solutions to the logistical and human resource challenges facing the LAgos State TB and Leprosy Program.

Trend of tuberculosis case notification and treatment outcome in Lagos State, Nigeria: a 5-year retrospective study.

Background: This study assessed trends of tuberculosis (TB) case notification rate (CNR) and treatment outcomes between 2011 and 2015 in Lagos State, Nigeria. Methods: A retrospective review of TB notification data to the Lagos State Tuberculosis and Leprosy Control Programme (LSTBLCP) between 1 January 2011 and 31 December 2015 was conducted. Results: A total of 44 516 TB cases were notified during the study period, representing 9.4% of the national figure. The male:female ratio was 1.3:1. About 53%, 44.1% and 2.7% of patients were smear positive, smear negative and extrapulmonary TB cases, respectively. TB notification increased by 12.2% between 2011 and 2013 and subsequently declined by 7.2% in 2015 relative to 2013. The TB CNR declined from 82.9 per 100 000 in 2013 to 72.1 per 100 000 in 2015. However, directly observed treatment short course (DOTS) and microscopy site expansion increased from 0.3 to 0.64 per 25 000 population and from 0.16 to 0.4 per 50 000 population, respectively, from 2011 to 2015. Similarly, there was a slight increase in treatment success rate, from 80.1% in 2011 to 82% in 2015. Conclusion: The CNR declined in Lagos State despite an increasing trend in DOTS and microscopy site expansions between 2013 and 2015. The LSTBLCPs need to re-engineer current strategies of active TB case findings in order to improve case notification in the state.

Treatment Outcomes of Childhood TB in Lagos, Nigeria.

BACKGROUND: : Treatment outcomes of tuberculosis (TB) in children are rarely evaluated by most national TB programmes in sub-Saharan Africa. This study evaluated the treatment outcomes of children treated for TB in Lagos State, Nigeria. METHODS: A retrospective review of programme data of the Lagos state TB and the Leprosy control programme in Nigeria from 1 January 2012 to 31 December 2012. Treatment outcomes were categorized according to the national TB guidelines. RESULTS: A total of 535 cases of childhood TB were notified in 2012, representing 6.3% of the total TB cases notified in Lagos state in 2012. The prevalence of TB/HIV co-infection was 29%. The treatment success rate was 79.2% in TB/HIV-negative children compared with 73.4% in TB/HIV-positive children (p = 0.1268). Children <1 year had the worst treatment outcomes (p < 0.001). CONCLUSION: There is a need to intensify effort at improving notification and treatment outcomes in children.

Epidemiological profile of the Ebola virus disease outbreak in Nigeria, July-September 2014.

INTRODUCTION: In July 2014, Nigeria experienced an outbreak of Ebola virus disease following the introduction of the disease by an ill Liberian Traveler. The Government of Nigeria with the support of Technical and Development Partners responded quickly and effectively to contain the outbreak. The epidemiological profile of the outbreak that majorly affected two States in the country in terms of person, place and time characteristics of the cases identified is hereby described. METHODS: Using field investigation technique, all confirmed and probable cases were identified, line-listed and analysed using Microsoft Excel 2007 by persons, time and place. RESULTS: A total of 20 confirmed and probable cases; 16 in Lagos (including the index case from Liberia) and 4 in Port Harcourt were identified. The mean age was 39.5 ± 12.4 years with over 40% within the age group 30-39 years. The most frequent exposure type was direct physical contact in 70% of all cases and 73% among health care workers. The total case-fatality was 40%; higher among healthcare workers (46%) compared with non-healthcare workers (22%). The epidemic curve initially shows a typical common source outbreak, followed by a propagated pattern. CONCLUSION: Investigation revealed the size and spread of the outbreak and provided information on the characteristics of persons, time and place. Enhanced surveillance measures, including contact tracing and follow- up proved very useful in early case detection and containment of the outbreak.