Setting research priorities for global pandemic preparedness: An international consensus and comparison with ChatGPT's output.

Background: In this priority-setting exercise, we sought to identify leading research priorities needed for strengthening future pandemic preparedness and response across countries. Methods: The International Society of Global Health (ISoGH) used the Child Health and Nutrition Research Initiative (CHNRI) method to identify research priorities for future pandemic preparedness. Eighty experts in global health, translational and clinical research identified 163 research ideas, of which 42 experts then scored based on five pre-defined criteria. We calculated intermediate criterion-specific scores and overall research priority scores from the mean of individual scores for each research idea. We used a bootstrap (n = 1000) to compute the 95% confidence intervals. Results: Key priorities included strengthening health systems, rapid vaccine and treatment production, improving international cooperation, and enhancing surveillance efficiency. Other priorities included learning from the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, managing supply chains, identifying planning gaps, and promoting equitable interventions. We compared this CHNRI-based outcome with the 14 research priorities generated and ranked by ChatGPT, encountering both striking similarities and clear differences. Conclusions: Priority setting processes based on human crowdsourcing - such as the CHNRI method - and the output provided by ChatGPT are both valuable, as they complement and strengthen each other. The priorities identified by ChatGPT were more grounded in theory, while those identified by CHNRI were guided by recent practical experiences. Addressing these priorities, along with improvements in health planning, equitable community-based interventions, and the capacity of primary health care, is vital for better pandemic preparedness and response in many settings.

The prevalence of vitamin A deficiency and its public health significance in children in low- and middle-income countries: A systematic review and modelling analysis.

Background: Vitamin A deficiency (VAD) is widely recognised as a major public health concern in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Despite various interventions implemented in many countries, a lack of reliable data is hindering progress. We aimed to consolidate available data and quantify estimates of the prevalence of VAD among children ≤18 years in LMICs. Methods: We searched PubMed, Medline and Embase for studies reported the prevalence of VAD or marginal (m)VAD among children. A multilevel mixed-effects meta-regression approach was applied to establish the regression models for VAD and mVAD prevalence. The total numbers of children affected by VAD and mVAD in LMICs in 2019 were separately calculated from the estimated age- and socio-demographic index (SDI)-specific prevalence with their corresponding United Nations Population Division populations projections. We estimated areas of significant public health concern in 165 LMICs using the lower confidence interval (CI) of VAD prevalence. Results: A total of 116 articles from 40 LMICs were retained. In 2019, VAD and mVAD affected 333.95 million (95% CI = 253.00-433.74) and 556.13 million (95% CI = 388.83-767.94) children and adolescents in 165 LMICs, respectively, corresponding to a prevalence of 14.73% (95% CI = 11.16-19.14) and 24.54% (95% CI = 17.15-33.88). The prevalence of both VAD and mVAD was the highest in children aged 0-5 years at 19.53% (95% CI = 15.03-24.91) and 28.22% (95% CI = 20.00-38.24), respectively, with both steadily decreasing to 10.09% (95% CI = 7.44-13.50) and 20.76% (95% CI = 14.16-29.50) in adolescents aged 13-18 years. The prevalence of VAD was significantly higher in the low SDI region at 29.67% (95% CI = 22.67-37.53) compared to 5.17% (95% CI = 3.14-8.43) estimated in the high-middle SDI region. 68 of the 165 LMICs (41.21%) were classified as areas of moderate to severe VAD public health significance. Conclusions: VAD continues to pose a significant public health concern in many low-income settings. Development in LMICs is a crucial factor for VAD, with a disproportionately higher burden in low SDI regions. Registration: This study protocol was registered with PROSPERO, CRD42020220654.

Spousal concordance in adverse childhood experiences and the association with depressive symptoms in middle-aged and older adults: findings across China, the US, and Europe.

Background: Adverse childhood experiences (ACEs) are associated with higher depressive risks in adulthood. Whether respondents' ACEs are associated with their own depressive symptoms in adulthood and whether this association extends to their spouses' depressive symptoms remain unexplored. Methods: Data were from China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS), the Health and Retirement Study (HRS), and the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE). ACEs were categorized into overall, intra-familial, and extra-familial ACEs. Correlations of couples' ACEs were calculated using Cramer's V and partial Spearman's correlation. Associations of respondents' ACEs with spousal depressive symptoms were assessed using logistic regression, and mediation analyses were conducted to explore the mediating role of respondents' depressive symptoms. Results: Significant associations between husbands' ACEs and wives' depressive symptoms, with odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of 2.09 (1.36-3.22) for 4 or more ACEs in CHARLS, and 1.25 (1.06-1.48) and 1.38 (1.06-1.79) for 2 or more ACEs in HRS and SHARE. However, wives' ACEs were associated with husbands' depressive symptoms only in CHARLS and SHARE. Findings in intra-familial and extra-familial ACEs were consistent with our main results. Additionally, respondents' depressive symptoms mediated more than 20% of the effect of respondents' ACEs on spousal depressive symptoms. Conclusion: We found that ACEs were significantly correlated between couples. Respondents' ACEs were associated with spousal depressive symptoms, with respondents' depressive symptoms mediating the association. The bidirectional implications of ACEs on depressive symptoms should be considered within household and effective interventions are warranted.

Lifetime prevalence and adherence rate of cervical cancer screening among women living with HIV: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

INTRODUCTION: Women living with HIV (WLWH) are more likely to develop cervical cancer. Screening and available healthcare can effectively reduce its incidence and mortality rates. We aimed to summarize the lifetime prevalence and adherence rate of cervical cancer screening among WLWH across low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), and high-income countries (HICs). METHODS: We systematically searched PubMed, Web of Science and Embase for studies published between database inception and 2 September 2022, without language or geographical restrictions. Those reporting the lifetime prevalence and/or adherence rate of cervical cancer screening among WLWH were included. Pooled estimates across LMICs and HICs were obtained using DerSimonian-Laird random-effects models. When the number of eligible studies was greater than 10, we further conducted stratified analyses by the World Health Organization (WHO) region, setting (rural vs. urban), investigation year, screening method, type of cervical cancer screening programme, age and education level. RESULTS: Among the 63 included articles, 26 provided data on lifetime prevalence, 24 on adherence rate and 13 on both. The pooled lifetime prevalence in LMICs was 30.2% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 21.0-41.3), compared to 92.4% in HICs (95% CI: 89.6-94.6). The pooled adherence rate was 20.1% in LMICs (95% CI: 16.4-24.3) and 59.5% in HICs (95% CI: 51.2-67.2). DISCUSSION: There was a large gap in cervical cancer screening among WLWH between LMICs and HICs. Further analysis found that those in LMICs had higher lifetime prevalence in subgroups with urban settings, with older age and with higher education levels; and those in HICs had higher adherence in subgroups with younger age and with higher education levels. CONCLUSIONS: Cervical cancer screening among WLWH falls considerably short of the WHO's goal. There should be continuous efforts to further increase screening among these women, especially those residing in the rural areas of LMICs and with lower education levels.

Can ChatGPT draft a research article? An example of population-level vaccine effectiveness analysis.

We reflect on our experiences of using Generative Pre-trained Transformer ChatGPT, a chatbot launched by OpenAI in November 2022, to draft a research article. We aim to demonstrate how ChatGPT could help researchers to accelerate drafting their papers. We created a simulated data set of 100 000 health care workers with varying ages, Body Mass Index (BMI), and risk profiles. Simulation data allow analysts to test statistical analysis techniques, such as machine-learning based approaches, without compromising patient privacy. Infections were simulated with a randomized probability of hospitalisation. A subset of these fictitious people was vaccinated with a fictional vaccine that reduced this probability of hospitalisation after infection. We then used ChatGPT to help us decide how to handle the simulated data in order to determine vaccine effectiveness and draft a related research paper. AI-based language models in data analysis and scientific writing are an area of growing interest, and this exemplar analysis aims to contribute to the understanding of how ChatGPT can be used to facilitate these tasks.

The Global and Regional Prevalence of Abdominal Aortic Aneurysms: A Systematic Review and Modeling Analysis.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the global and regional prevalence and cases of abdominal aortic aneurysms (AAAs) in 2019 and to evaluate major associated factors. BACKGROUND: Understanding the global prevalence of AAA is essential for optimizing health services and reducing mortality from reputed AAA. METHODS: PubMed, MEDLINE, and Embase were searched for articles published until October 11, 2021. Population-based studies that reported AAA prevalence in the general population, defined AAA as an aortic diameter of 30 mm or greater with ultrasonography or computed tomography. A multilevel mixed-effects meta-regression approach was used to establish the relation between age and AAA prevalence for high-demographic sociodemographic index and low-and middle-sociodemographic index countries. Odds ratios of AAA associated factors were pooled using a random-effects method. RESULTS: We retained 54 articles across 19 countries. The global prevalence of AAA among persons aged 30 to 79 years was 0.92% (95% CI, 0.65-1.30), translating to a total of 35.12 million (95% CI, 24.94-49.80) AAA cases in 2019. Smoking, male sex, family history of AAA, advanced age, hypertension, hypercholesterolemia, obesity, cardiovascular disease, cerebrovascular disease, claudication, peripheral artery disease, pulmonary disease, and renal disease were associated with AAA. In 2019, the Western Pacific region had the highest AAA prevalence at 1.31% (95% CI, 0.94-1.85), whereas the African region had the lowest prevalence at 0.33% (95% CI, 0.23-0.48). CONCLUSIONS: A substantial proportion of people are affected by AAA. There is a need to optimize epidemiological studies to promptly respond to at-risk and identified cases to improve outcomes.

Associated factors and global adherence of cervical cancer screening in 2019: a systematic analysis and modelling study.

BACKGROUND: Cervical cancer screening is vital for its prevention. Adherence is a crucial indicator that implies the individual willingness to take cervical cancer screening. We aimed to estimate the global and regional adherence rates of cervical cancer screening in 2019 and identify its associated factors among general women. METHOD: We searched studies in PubMed, Web of Science, Embase, China National Knowledge Infrastructure, Wanfang Database, ProQuest theses database and Google Web, without a lower time limit and until 23 June, 2021. Survey studies were considered eligible if they investigated cervical cancer screening adherence among general women, with data on sample size, the number of adherent subjects, and/or adherence rate. Random-effects were used to pool the odds ratios (ORs) of associated factors of adherence. Using modelling analysis, we estimated 2019 overall and age-specific adherence rates at the global and regional levels in women aged 20-69 years. RESULTS: Eight thousand two hundred ninety records were identified, and 153 articles were included. Being married (vs not married: OR, 1.34; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.23-1.46), higher educational attainment (higher than high school vs less than high school: OR, 1.44; 95% CI: 1.35-1.53), having healthcare (OR, 1.64; 95% CI: 1.43-1.88), former smoking (OR, 1.20; 95% CI: 1.07-1.34), physical activity (OR, 1.19; 95% CI: 1.05-1.36), parity (OR, 1.07; 95% CI: 1.01-1.12), and chronic disease (OR, 1.17; 95% CI: 1.04-1.32) were associated with better adherence, whereas obesity (vs normal: OR, 0.85; 95% CI: 0.74-0.97) and current smoking (vs former/never: OR, 0.64; 95% CI: 0.54-0.76) were associated with worse adherence. In 2019, the adherence was at 33.66% (95% CI: 23.34-39.30%) worldwide, and was higher in high-income countries (HICs) (75.66, 95% CI: 66.74-82.81%) than in low and middle-income countries (LMICs) (24.91, 95% CI: 14.30-30.24%). It varied across regions, the highest in the European region (65.36, 95% CI: 55.40-74.19%), but the lowest in the African region (5.28, 95% CI: 3.43-8.03%). CONCLUSIONS: Cervical cancer screening adherence remained low globally, exhibiting geographical discrepancy with HICs higher than LMICs. Further implementations of screening programs should comprehensively consider the local economy, social benefits, and demographic structure to adapt delivery for vulnerable or underserved women to boost screening adherence.

Adverse childhood experiences and risk of diabetes: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

Background: The association between adverse childhood experiences (ACEs) and diabetes is unclear. This systematic review and meta-analysis aims to quantify the association between the number and types of ACEs and diabetes during adulthood based on available observational studies. Methods: A comprehensive literature search of studies exploring the association between ACEs and diabetes was conducted in PubMed, Medline, and Embase databases until 15 April 2022. A random-effects model was used to pool odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for the number and types of ACEs with diabetes. Regarding the association between the number of ACEs and diabetes, we used funnel plots to examine publication bias, subgroup analysis to explore sources of heterogeneity, and sensitivity analysis to explore the robustness of the pooled results. Results: A total of 49 studies were included. Individuals with higher continuous ACEs (per each additional ACE: OR = 1.06, 95% CI = 1.02-1.10), any ACE (OR = 1.22, 95% CI = 1.16-1.28), or ≥4 ACEs (OR = 1.44, 95% CI = 1.27-1.63) were at an increased risk of diabetes in adulthood when compared with individuals without ACEs. Across specific ACE types, childhood economic adversity (OR = 1.11, 95% CI = 1.04-1.19), physical abuse (OR = 1.14, 95% CI = 1.07-1.21), sexual abuse (OR = 1.25, 95% CI = 1.12-1.39), verbal abuse (OR = 1.11, 95% CI = 1.03-1.20), and incarceration (OR = 1.22, 95% CI = 1.03-1.45) were associated with diabetes. However, neglect, emotional abuse, domestic violence, parental divorce or separation, parental death, and living with a family member with substance abuse or mental disorders were not significantly associated with diabetes. Conclusions: Individuals with ACEs may have a cumulative risk for diabetes in adulthood. It is critical to prevent ACEs and build resilience in individuals affected by ACEs.

Estimating the prevalence of COPD in an African country: evidence from southern Nigeria.

# Background: Though several environmental and demographic factors would suggest a high burden of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) in most African countries, there is insufficient country-level synthesis to guide public health policy. # Methods: A systematic search of MEDLINE, EMBASE, Global Health and African Journals Online identified studies reporting the prevalence of COPD in Nigeria. We provided a detailed synthesis of study characteristics, and overall median and interquartile range (IQR) of COPD prevalence in Nigeria by case definitions (spirometry or non-spirometry). # Results: Of 187 potential studies, eight studies (6 spirometry and 2 non-spirometry) including 4,234 Nigerians met the criteria. From spirometry assessment, which is relatively internally consistent, the median prevalence of COPD in Nigeria was 9.2% (interquartile range, IQR: 7.6-10.0), compared to a lower prevalence (5.1%, IQR: 2.2-15.4) from studies based on British Medical Research Council (BMRC) criteria or doctor's diagnosis. The median prevalence of COPD was almost the same among rural (9.5%, IQR: 7.6-10.3) and urban dwellers (9.0%, IQR: 5.3-9.3) from spirometry studies. # Conclusions: A limited number of studies on COPD introduces imprecision in prevalence estimates and presents concerns on the level of response available across different parts of Nigeria, and indeed across many countries in sub-Saharan Africa.

Global, regional, and national prevalence of asthma in 2019: a systematic analysis and modelling study.

Background: Asthma has a significant impact on people of all ages, particularly children. A lack of universally accepted case definition and confirmatory tests and a poor understanding of major risks interfere with a global response. We aimed to provide global estimates of asthma prevalence and cases in 2019 across four main epidemiological case definitions - current wheezing, ever wheezing, current asthma, and ever asthma. We further investigated major associated factors to determine regional and national distributions of prevalence and cases for current wheezing and ever asthma. Methods: We identified relevant population-based studies published between January 1, 1990, and December 31, 2019. Using a multilevel multivariable mixed-effects meta-regression model, we assessed the age- and sex-adjusted associations of asthma with study-level variables, including year, setting, region and socio-demographic index (SDI). Using a random-effects meta-analysis, we then identified risk factors for current wheezing and asthma. From a "risk factor-based model", which included current smoking, and biomass exposure for current wheezing, and rural setting, current smoking, biomass exposure, and SDI for ever asthma, we estimated case numbers and prevalence across regions and 201 countries and territories in 2019. Results: 220 population-based studies conducted in 88 countries were retained. In 2019, the global prevalence estimates of asthma in people aged 5-69 years by various definitions, namely current wheezing, ever wheezing, current asthma, and ever asthma were 11.5% (95% confidence interval (CI) = 9.1-14.3), 17.9% (95% CI = 14.2-22.3), 5.4% (95% CI = 3.2-9.0) and 9.8% (95% CI = 7.8-12.2), respectively. These translated to 754.6 million (95% CI = 599. 7-943.4), 1181.3 million (95% CI = 938.0-1,471.0), 357.4 million (95% CI = 213.0-590.8), 645.2 million (95% CI = 513.1-806.2) cases, respectively. The overall prevalence of current wheezing among people aged 5-69 years was the highest in the African Region at 13.2% (95% CI = 10.5-16.5), and the lowest in the Americas Region at 10.0% (95% CI = 8.0-12.5). For ever asthma, the estimated prevalence in those aged 5-69 years was also the highest in the African Region at 11.3% (95% CI = 9.0-14.1), but the lowest in South-East Asia Region (8.8, 95% CI = 7.0-11.0). Conclusions: Although varying approaches to case identification in different settings make epidemiological estimates of asthma very difficult, this analysis reaffirms asthma as a common global respiratory condition before the COVID-19 pandemic in 2019, with higher prevalence than previously reported in many world settings.

Lower limb amputations among individuals living with diabetes mellitus in low- and middle-income countries: A systematic review protocol.

BACKGROUND: The burden of diabetes mellitus (DM) and its associated complications continue to burgeon, particularly in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Lower limb amputation (LLA) is one of the most life-altering complications of DM, associated with significant morbidity, mortality and socio-economic impacts. High-income countries have reported a decreasing incidence of DM-associated LLA, but the situation in many LMICs is unknown. We aim to conduct a systematic review to determine the incidence and prevalence of DM-associated LLA in LMICs to better inform appropriate interventions and health system response. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: A systematic search of the literature will be conducted on five databases: MEDLINE, Embase, Cumulative Index of Nursing and Allied Health Literature (CINAHL), Scopus and African Journal Online (AJOL). Only observational, quantitative studies reporting the incidence and/or prevalence of DM-related LLA will be considered. A validated study design-specific critical appraisal tool will be used to assess the risk of bias in individual studies. We will determine the incidence of LLA by examining the number of new cases of LLA among individuals with confirmed DM diagnosis during the specified period, while the prevalence will be based on the total number of all new and existing LLAs in a population. LLA will be considered as the resection of the lower limb from just above the knee to any point down to the toe. If heterogeneity is low to moderate, a random-effects meta-analysis will be conducted on extracted crude prevalence/incidence rates, with the median and interquartile range also reported. The systematic review will be performed in accordance with the JBI guideline for prevalence and incidence review. Study reporting will follow the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Review and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guideline. PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER: CRD42021238656.

Research priorities to reduce the impact of COVID-19 in low- and middle-income countries.

Background: The COVID-19 pandemic has caused disruptions to the functioning of societies and their health systems. Prior to the pandemic, health systems in low- and middle-income countries (LMIC) were particularly stretched and vulnerable. The International Society of Global Health (ISoGH) sought to systematically identify priorities for health research that would have the potential to reduce the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic in LMICs. Methods: The Child Health and Nutrition Research Initiative (CHNRI) method was used to identify COVID-19-related research priorities. All ISoGH members were invited to participate. Seventy-nine experts in clinical, translational, and population research contributed 192 research questions for consideration. Fifty-two experts then scored those questions based on five pre-defined criteria that were selected for this exercise: 1) feasibility and answerability; 2) potential for burden reduction; 3) potential for a paradigm shift; 4) potential for translation and implementation; and 5) impact on equity. Results: Among the top 10 research priorities, research questions related to vaccination were prominent: health care system access barriers to equitable uptake of COVID-19 vaccination (ranked 1st), determinants of vaccine hesitancy (4th), development and evaluation of effective interventions to decrease vaccine hesitancy (5th), and vaccination impacts on vulnerable population/s (6th). Health care delivery questions also ranked highly, including: effective strategies to manage COVID-19 globally and in LMICs (2nd) and integrating health care for COVID-19 with other essential health services in LMICs (3rd). Additionally, the assessment of COVID-19 patients' needs in rural areas of LMICs was ranked 7th, and studying the leading socioeconomic determinants and consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic in LMICs using multi-faceted approaches was ranked 8th. The remaining questions in the top 10 were: clarifying paediatric case-fatality rates (CFR) in LMICs and identifying effective strategies for community engagement against COVID-19 in different LMIC contexts. Interpretation: Health policy and systems research to inform COVID-19 vaccine uptake and equitable access to care are urgently needed, especially for rural, vulnerable, and/or marginalised populations. This research should occur in parallel with studies that will identify approaches to minimise vaccine hesitancy and effectively integrate care for COVID-19 with other essential health services in LMICs. ISoGH calls on the funders of health research in LMICs to consider the urgency and priority of this research during the COVID-19 pandemic and support studies that could make a positive difference for the populations of LMICs.

Estimating the global and regional burden of meningitis in children caused by Haemophilus influenzae type b: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

Background: Haemophilus influenzae Type B (Hib) meningitis caused significant public health concern for children. Recent assessment in 2015 suggests vaccination has virtually eliminated invasive Hib diseases. However, many countries launched their programs after 2010, and few are yet to establish routine Hib immunisations. We therefore aimed to update the most recent global burden of Hib meningitis before the impact of COVID-19 pandemic, from 2010 to 2020, in order to aid future public health policies on disease management and prevention. Methods: Epidemiological data regarding Hib meningitis in children <5 years old were systematically searched and evaluated from PubMed and Scopus in August, 2020. We included studies published between 2010 and 2019 that reported incidence, prevalence, mortality, or case-fatality-ratio (CFR), and confirmation of meningitis by cerebrospinal fluid culture, with a minimum one year study period and ten cases. Each data was stratified by one study-year. Median study-year was used if information was not available. Quality of all studies were assessed using our adapted assessment criteria from Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation (GRADE) and Study Quality Assessment Tool for Observational Cohort and Cross-Sectional Studies from National Heart, Lung and Blood Institute (NHLBI). We constructed and visually inspected a funnel plot of standard error by the incidence rate and performed an Egger's regression test to statistically assess publication bias. To ascertain incidence and CFR, we performed generalised linear mixed models on crude individual study estimates. Heterogeneity was assessed using I-squared statistics whilst further exploring heterogeneity by performing subgroup analysis. Results: 33 studies were identified. Pooled incidence of global Hib meningitis in children was 1.13 per 100 000-child-years (95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.80-1.59). Southeast Asian Region (SEAR) of World Health Organisation (WHO) region reported the highest incidence, and European Region (EUR) the lowest. Considering regions with three or more data, Western Pacific Region (WPR) had the highest incidence rate of 5.22 (95% CI = 3.12-8.72). Post-vaccination incidence (0.67 cases per 100 000-child-years, 95% CI = 0.48-0.94) was dramatically lower than Pre-vaccination incidence (4.84 cases per 100 000-child-years, 95% CI = 2.95-7.96). Pooled CFR in our meta-analysis was 11.21% (95% CI = 7.01-17.45). Eastern Mediterranean Region (EMR) had the highest CFR (26.92, 95% CI = 13.41-46.71) while EUR had the lowest (4.13, 95% CI = 1.73-9.54). However, considering regions with three or more data, African Region (AFR) had the highest CFR at 21.79% (95% CI = 13.65-32.92). Before the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) impact, the estimation for global Hib meningitis cases in 2020 is 7645 and 857 deaths. Conclusions: Global burden of Hib meningitis has markedly decreased, and most regions have implemented vaccination programs. Extrapolating population-at-risk from studies has possibly led to an underestimation. Continuous surveillance is necessary to monitor vaccination impact, resurgence, vaccine failures, strain variance, COVID-19 impact, and to track improvement of regional and global Hib meningitis mortality.

Global, regional, and national prevalence of, and risk factors for, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) in 2019: a systematic review and modelling analysis.

BACKGROUND: Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is an increasingly important cause of morbidity, disability, and mortality worldwide. We aimed to estimate global, regional, and national COPD prevalence and risk factors to guide policy and population interventions. METHODS: For this systematic review and modelling study, we searched MEDLINE, Embase, Global Health, and CINAHL, for population-based studies on COPD prevalence published between Jan 1, 1990, and Dec 31, 2019. We included data reported using the two main case definitions: the Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease fixed ratio (GOLD; FEV1/FVC<0·7) and the lower limit of normal (LLN; FEV1/FVC

COVID-19: vaccines, efficacy and effects on variants.

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: We reviewed three leading strategies of vaccine development against coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID- 19): mRNA vaccines, adenoviral vector vaccines and recombinant nanoparticles. We also considered the emergence of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variants and their impact on the effectiveness of the most widely implemented vaccines. RECENT FINDINGS: General properties, efficacy, safety and global uptake of Pfizer/BioNTech's Comirnaty (BNT162b2), Moderna's Spikevax (mRNA-1273), Oxford/AstraZeneca's ChAdOx1 nCoV-19, J&J/Janssen's Ad26.COV2.S and Novavax's NVX-CoV2373 vaccines at the end of the year 2021 were presented. We summarized the information on the effectiveness against COVID-19 infection, severe disease and death. We then focused on important missense mutations in the five variants of concern (VoC): Alpha, Beta, Gamma, Delta and Omicron. We explored the evidence for the effectiveness of the vaccines against those five VoC. SUMMARY: It is difficult to predict the further development of the COVID-19 pandemic. The development of vaccines of an increasingly broad spectrum against coronaviruses, more easily deliverable and conferring more durable immune protection is likely. However, the very large number of infections may lead to new mutations with unpredictable impacts. Interventions that would control COVID-19 more effectively and enable a safer coexistence with the SARS-CoV-2 virus and its emerging variants are still needed in early 2022.

The global prevalence of and factors associated with Helicobacter pylori infection in children: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Synthesised data on the prevalence of, and factors associated with, paediatric Helicobacter pylori infection at the global level remain scarce. We aimed to estimate the global prevalence of H pylori infection and its associated factors in children and adolescents. METHODS: In this systematic review and meta-analysis, we searched PubMed, Embase, MEDLINE, and Scopus for observational population-based studies published between database inception and Oct 25, 2021, without language or geographical restrictions. We included studies that reported the prevalence of H pylori infection in children aged 18 years or younger. Records were screened and data were extracted using a standardised extraction form. We estimated the worldwide prevalence of H pylori infection in children (our main outcome) using multilevel mixed-effects meta-regression and then stratified prevalence by diagnostic method (serology vs urea breath tests or stool antigen tests). We analysed the significance of associated factors using a random-effects meta-analysis. This study is registered in PROSPERO, CRD42020209717. FINDINGS: We identified 3181 records, of which 198 articles with 632 data points from 152 650 children were included. The overall global prevalence of H pylori infection in children was 32·3% (95% CI 27·3-37·8), which varied by diagnostic test (28·6% [23·0-35·0] for serology vs 35·9% [29·2-43·2] for urea breath tests or stool antigen tests). Regardless of diagnostic test, the prevalence of H pylori infection was significantly higher in low-income and middle-income countries than in high-income countries (43·2% [36·5-50·2] vs 21·7% [16·9-27·4]; p<0·0001) and in older children than in younger children (41·6% [35·6-47·8] in 13-18-year-olds vs 33·9% [28·6-39·7] in 7-12-year-olds vs 26·0% [21·4-31·0] in 0-6-year-olds; p<0·0001). Paediatric H pylori infection was significantly associated with lower economic status (odds ratio [OR] 1·63 [95% CI 1·46-1·82]), more siblings or children (1·84 [1·44-2·36]), room sharing (1·89 [1·49-2·40]), no access to a sewage system (1·60 [1·22-2·10]), having a mother infected with H pylori (3·31 [2·21-4·98]), having a sibling or siblings infected with H pylori (3·33 [1·53-7·26]), drinking unboiled or non-treated water (1·52 [1·32-1·76]), and older age (OR per year 1·27 [1·15-1·40]). INTERPRETATION: H pylori infection is still highly prevalent in children and adolescents globally. Our findings can help to guide further research and the development and implementation of preventive and therapeutic measures to reduce H pylori infection in children. FUNDING: None.

Epidemiology of physical inactivity in Nigeria: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Physical activity is crucial to preventing noncommunicable diseases. This study aimed to provide up-to-date evidence on the epidemiology of insufficient physical activity across Nigeria to increase awareness and prompt relevant policy and public health response. METHODS: A systematic literature search of community-based studies on physical inactivity was conducted. We constructed a meta-regression epidemiologic model to determine the age-adjusted prevalence and number of physically inactive persons in Nigeria for 1995 and 2020. RESULTS: Fifteen studies covering a population of 13 814 adults met our selection criteria. The pooled crude prevalence of physically inactive persons in Nigeria was 52.0% (95% CI: 33.7-70.4), with prevalence in women higher at 55.8% (95% CI: 29.4-82.3) compared to men at 49.3% (95% CI: 24.7-73.9). Across settings, prevalence of physically inactive persons was significantly higher among urban dwellers (56.8%, 35.3-78.4) compared to rural dwellers (18.9%, 11.9-49.8). Among persons aged 20-79 years, the total number of physically inactive persons increased from 14.4 million to 48.6 million between 1995 and 2020, equivalent to a 240% increase over the 25-year period. CONCLUSIONS: A comprehensive and robust strategy that addresses occupational policies, town planning, awareness and information, and sociocultural and contextual issues is crucial to improving physical activity levels in Nigeria.

Research priorities to address the global burden of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) in the next decade.

BACKGROUND: The global prevalence of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) has increased markedly in recent decades. Given the scarcity of resources available to address global health challenges and respiratory medicine being relatively under-invested in, it is important to define research priorities for COPD globally. In this paper, we aim to identify a ranked set of COPD research priorities that need to be addressed in the next 10 years to substantially reduce the global impact of COPD. METHODS: We adapted the Child Health and Nutrition Research Initiative (CHNRI) methodology to identify global COPD research priorities. RESULTS: 62 experts contributed 230 research ideas, which were scored by 34 researchers according to six pre-defined criteria: answerability, effectiveness, feasibility, deliverability, burden reduction, and equity. The top-ranked research priority was the need for new effective strategies to support smoking cessation. Of the top 20 overall research priorities, six were focused on feasible and cost-effective pulmonary rehabilitation delivery and access, particularly in primary/community care and low-resource settings. Three of the top 10 overall priorities called for research on improved screening and accurate diagnostic methods for COPD in low-resource primary care settings. Further ideas that drew support involved a better understanding of risk factors for COPD, development of effective training programmes for health workers and physicians in low resource settings, and evaluation of novel interventions to encourage physical activity. CONCLUSIONS: The experts agreed that the most pressing feasible research questions to address in the next decade for COPD reduction were on prevention, diagnosis and rehabilitation of COPD, especially in low resource settings. The largest gains should be expected in low- and middle-income countries (LMIC) settings, as the large majority of COPD deaths occur in those settings. Research priorities identified by this systematic international process should inform and motivate policymakers, funders, and researchers to support and conduct research to reduce the global burden of COPD.

The long-term sequelae of COVID-19: an international consensus on research priorities for patients with pre-existing and new-onset airways disease.

Persistent ill health after acute COVID-19-referred to as long COVID, the post-acute COVID-19 syndrome, or the post-COVID-19 condition-has emerged as a major concern. We undertook an international consensus exercise to identify research priorities with the aim of understanding the long-term effects of acute COVID-19, with a focus on people with pre-existing airways disease and the occurrence of new-onset airways disease and associated symptoms. 202 international experts were invited to submit a minimum of three research ideas. After a two-phase internal review process, a final list of 98 research topics was scored by 48 experts. Patients with pre-existing or post-COVID-19 airways disease contributed to the exercise by weighting selected criteria. The highest-ranked research idea focused on investigation of the relationship between prognostic scores at hospital admission and morbidity at 3 months and 12 months after hospital discharge in patients with and without pre-existing airways disease. High priority was also assigned to comparisons of the prevalence and severity of post-COVID-19 fatigue, sarcopenia, anxiety, depression, and risk of future cardiovascular complications in patients with and without pre-existing airways disease. Our approach has enabled development of a set of priorities that could inform future research studies and funding decisions. This prioritisation process could also be adapted to other, non-respiratory aspects of long COVID.

Using evidence, expert opinion and epidemiological model to understand pathways to survival and mortality: The Pathways to Survival (PATHS) Tool.

BACKGROUND: The reasons why episodes of illness can lead to fatal outcomes in affected persons in low resource settings are numerous and complex. A tool that allows policy makers to better understand those complexities could be useful to improve success of programmes that are implemented globally to reduce mortality. METHODS: We developed a "Pathways to Survival" (PATHS) tool: an epidemiological model using decision trees, available evidence and expert opinion. PATHS visualises the "architecture" of mortality in the population by following the entire population cohort over a certain period of time. It explains how initially healthy persons progress through health systems to lethal outcomes at the end of the specified time period. We developed an illustrative example based on the 136 million newborns and an estimated 907 000 deaths from newborn sepsis in the year 2008. This allowed us to develop an epidemiological model that described pathways to deaths from neonatal sepsis globally in 2010. RESULTS: The model described the "status quo' situation in 2010 with 907 000 deaths to allow an assessment of the potential impact and feasibility of different interventions and programmes at various level of health systems in reducing this cause of mortality. A useful model should incorporate both a 'horizontal' and a 'vertical' component. The 'horizontal' would track the progress of all neonates globally through time, ie, their first 28 days of life, and separate them into different 'pathways' every time a change in their risk of dying from neonatal infection occurs because of their specific contextual circumstances. The 'vertical' would track their position within the health systems of their countries and separate them into different categories based on the ability of health system to intervene and reduce their risk of dying. Based on those requirements, PATHS tool was developed which is based on decision trees where different "branches" of the trees are associated with varying case-fatality rates. CONCLUSIONS: The application of the PATHS tool on the example of newborn sepsis revealed that novel diagnostic tests could save many lives, so we should continue to invest in them to improve their validity, deliverability and affordability. However, PATHS showed that investments in better diagnostics have limited impact unless they are coupled with improvements of the context. Programs for parental education improve compliance and care seeking. Promoting legislation change to empower community health workers (CHWs) to actively engage in prevention, diagnosis and care also makes a difference, as well as programs for training CHWs to use diagnostic tests and administer treatments correctly. Care-seeking behaviour can also be improved through programs of conditional cash transfers. Finally, PATHS demonstrated that improving access to primary and secondary health care for everyone is the most powerful contextual change.