Routine CSF parameters as predictors of disease course in multiple sclerosis: an MSBase cohort study.

BACKGROUND: It remains unclear whether routine cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) parameters can serve as predictors of multiple sclerosis (MS) disease course. METHODS: This large-scale cohort study included persons with MS with CSF data documented in the MSBase registry. CSF parameters to predict time to reach confirmed Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) scores 4, 6 and 7 and annualised relapse rate in the first 2 years after diagnosis (ARR2) were assessed using (cox) regression analysis. RESULTS: In total, 11 245 participants were included of which 93.7% (n=10 533) were persons with relapsing-remitting MS (RRMS). In RRMS, the presence of CSF oligoclonal bands (OCBs) was associated with shorter time to disability milestones EDSS 4 (adjusted HR=1.272 (95% CI, 1.089 to 1.485), p=0.002), EDSS 6 (HR=1.314 (95% CI, 1.062 to 1.626), p=0.012) and EDSS 7 (HR=1.686 (95% CI, 1.111 to 2.558), p=0.014). On the other hand, the presence of CSF pleocytosis (≥5 cells/µL) increased time to moderate disability (EDSS 4) in RRMS (HR=0.774 (95% CI, 0.632 to 0.948), p=0.013). None of the CSF variables were associated with time to disability milestones in persons with primary progressive MS (PPMS). The presence of CSF pleocytosis increased ARR2 in RRMS (adjusted R2=0.036, p=0.015). CONCLUSIONS: In RRMS, the presence of CSF OCBs predicts shorter time to disability milestones, whereas CSF pleocytosis could be protective. This could however not be found in PPMS. CSF pleocytosis is associated with short-term inflammatory disease activity in RRMS. CSF analysis provides prognostic information which could aid in clinical and therapeutic decision-making.

Comparative Study between the Diagnostic Effectiveness of Brain SPECT with [123I]Ioflupane and [123I]MIBG Scintigraphy in Multiple System Atrophy.

BACKGROUND: Multiple system atrophy (MSA) is a neurodegenerative disease. It has a fast progression, so early diagnosis is decisive. Two functional imaging tests can be involved in its diagnosis: [123I]Ioflupane SPECT and [123I]MIBG scintigraphy. Our aim is to comparatively analyze the diagnostic performance of both techniques. METHODS: 46 patients (24 males and 22 females) with MSA underwent [123I]Ioflupane SPECT and [123I]MIBG scintigraphy. In each of these techniques, qualitative assessment was compared with quantitative assessment. RESULTS: SPECT visual assessment was positive in 93.5% of subjects (S = 95.24%; PPV = 93.02%). A cut-off of 1.363 was established for overall S/O index (S = 85.7%, E = 100%). Visual assessment of scintigraphy was positive in 73.1% (S = 78.57%, PPV = 94.29%). For the delayed heart/medistinum ratio (HMR) a cut-off of 1.43 (S = 85.3, E = 100%) was obtained. For each unit increase in delayed HMR, the suspicion of MSA increased by 1.58 (OR = 1.58, p < 0.05). The quantitative assessment showed an association with the visual assessment for each technique (p < 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: Both tests are useful in MSA diagnosis. Comparatively, we did not observe a clear superiority of either. Striatal and myocardial deterioration do not evolve in parallel. Qualitative assessment is crucial in both techniques, together with the support of quantitative analysis. Delayed HMR shows a direct relationship with the risk of MSA.

Effectiveness of multiple disease-modifying therapies in relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis: causal inference to emulate a multiarm randomised trial.

BACKGROUND: Simultaneous comparisons of multiple disease-modifying therapies for relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS) over an extended follow-up are lacking. Here we emulate a randomised trial simultaneously comparing the effectiveness of six commonly used therapies over 5 years. METHODS: Data from 74 centres in 35 countries were sourced from MSBase. For each patient, the first eligible intervention was analysed, censoring at change/discontinuation of treatment. The compared interventions included natalizumab, fingolimod, dimethyl fumarate, teriflunomide, interferon beta, glatiramer acetate and no treatment. Marginal structural Cox models (MSMs) were used to estimate the average treatment effects (ATEs) and the average treatment effects among the treated (ATT), rebalancing the compared groups at 6-monthly intervals on age, sex, birth-year, pregnancy status, treatment, relapses, disease duration, disability and disease course. The outcomes analysed were incidence of relapses, 12-month confirmed disability worsening and improvement. RESULTS: 23 236 eligible patients were diagnosed with RRMS or clinically isolated syndrome. Compared with glatiramer acetate (reference), several therapies showed a superior ATE in reducing relapses: natalizumab (HR=0.44, 95% CI=0.40 to 0.50), fingolimod (HR=0.60, 95% CI=0.54 to 0.66) and dimethyl fumarate (HR=0.78, 95% CI=0.66 to 0.92). Further, natalizumab (HR=0.43, 95% CI=0.32 to 0.56) showed a superior ATE in reducing disability worsening and in disability improvement (HR=1.32, 95% CI=1.08 to 1.60). The pairwise ATT comparisons also showed superior effects of natalizumab followed by fingolimod on relapses and disability. CONCLUSIONS: The effectiveness of natalizumab and fingolimod in active RRMS is superior to dimethyl fumarate, teriflunomide, glatiramer acetate and interferon beta. This study demonstrates the utility of MSM in emulating trials to compare clinical effectiveness among multiple interventions simultaneously.

Hopelessness in Patients with Early-Stage Relapsing-Remitting Multiple Sclerosis.

Background: Hopelessness is a risk factor for depression and suicide. There is little information on this phenomenon among patients with relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS), one of the most common causes of disability and loss of autonomy in young adults. The aim of this study was to assess state hopelessness and its associated factors in early-stage RRMS. Methods: A multicenter, non-interventional study was conducted. Adult patients with a diagnosis of RRMS, a disease duration ≤ 3 years, and an Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) score of 0-5.5 were included. The State-Trait Hopelessness Scale (STHS) was used to measure patients´ hopelessness. A battery of patient-reported and clinician-rated measurements was used to assess clinical status. A multivariate logistic regression analysis was conducted to determine the association between patients' characteristics and state hopelessness. Results: A total of 189 patients were included. Mean age (standard deviation-SD) was 36.1 (9.4) years and 71.4% were female. Median disease duration (interquartile range-IQR) was 1.4 (0.7, 2.1) years. Symptom severity and disability were low with a median EDSS (IQR) score of 1.0 (0, 2.0). A proportion of 65.6% (n=124) of patients reported moderate-to-severe hopelessness. Hopelessness was associated with older age (p=0.035), depressive symptoms (p=<0.001), a threatening illness perception (p=0.001), and psychological and cognitive barriers to workplace performance (p=0.029) in the multivariate analysis after adjustment for confounders. Conclusion: Hopelessness was a common phenomenon in early-stage RRMS, even in a population with low physical disability. Identifying factors associated with hopelessness may be critical for implementing preventive strategies helping patients to adapt to the new situation and cope with the disease in the long term.

Effect of the Mediterranean diet and probiotic supplementation in the management of mild cognitive impairment: Rationale, methods, and baseline characteristics.

Introduction: Mild cognitive impairment (MCI) can progress to Alzheimer's disease (AD). When MCI is not properly controlled, the speed of deterioration can dramatically increase. Reduction of oxidative stress/inflammation and the modulation of the gut-brain axis could be new potential therapeutic targets for the prevention and treatment of AD. Consumption of specific nutrients, diets and probiotic supplementation have been evaluated for neurodegenerative disorders. We focus on a detailed description of the study methods and baseline characteristics of a clinical trial aiming to evaluate the efficacy of a combined nutritional intervention, i.e., a Mediterranean diet with probiotics, on cognitive capacity in a population with MCI. Methods: In this randomized, latin-square crossover, double-blind, and controlled dietary intervention trial (clinicaltrials.gov NCT05029765), 47 MCI patients were randomized to consume three dietary interventions for 24-weeks each: (1) A Mediterranean diet supplemented with probiotics (109 colony-forming units of Lactobacillus rhamnosus and Bifidobacterium longum); (2) A Mediterranean diet + placebo; and (3) A Healthy diet according to the World Health Organization (WHO) recommendations. Participants will be evaluated before and after each of the three intervention periods (each 24-weeks, with a total of 72-weeks) for adherence to the assigned diet, blood tests, cognitive performance, gut microbiota analysis and functional neuroimaging studies. Results: Fifty patients, ≥60 years-old and diagnosed with MCI, underwent randomization. A total of 47 patients completed follow-up dietary interventions (57.4% males), with a good glycemic control (HbA1c 5.8 ± 0.1%, fasting glucose and insulin 99.7 ± 3.3 mg/dL and 10.4 ± 0.9 mU/L, respectively), elevated systolic blood pressure (136.9 ± 2.1 mmHg) and increased degree of inflammation (high-sensitivity C-reactive protein, 8.8 ± 0.9 mg/dL). Baseline adherence to the Mediterranean diet was medium (7.5 ± 0.3 points on the score that ranged from 0 to 14 points). Conclusion: The results of this clinical study would provide more evidence on the need for dietary therapeutic strategies, for clinical and individual practice, in the management of MCI patients to reduce the risk of AD development. Targeting lifestyle modifications in high-risk populations could prevent substantial cases of cognitive decline. Clinical trial registration: [ClinicalTrials.gov], identifier [NCT05029765].

Longitudinal machine learning modeling of MS patient trajectories improves predictions of disability progression.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Research in Multiple Sclerosis (MS) has recently focused on extracting knowledge from real-world clinical data sources. This type of data is more abundant than data produced during clinical trials and potentially more informative about real-world clinical practice. However, this comes at the cost of less curated and controlled data sets. In this work we aim to predict disability progression by optimally extracting information from longitudinal patient data in the real-world setting, with a special focus on the sporadic sampling problem. METHODS: We use machine learning methods suited for patient trajectories modeling, such as recurrent neural networks and tensor factorization. A subset of 6682 patients from the MSBase registry is used. RESULTS: We can predict disability progression of patients in a two-year horizon with an ROC-AUC of 0.85, which represents a 32% decrease in the ranking pair error (1-AUC) compared to reference methods using static clinical features. CONCLUSIONS: Compared to the models available in the literature, this work uses the most complete patient history for MS disease progression prediction and represents a step forward towards AI-assisted precision medicine in MS.

HIV infection and multiple sclerosis: a case with unexpected "no evidence of disease activity" status.

Multiple sclerosis (MS) is an inflammatory demyelinating disease of the central nervous system whose etiology remains unclear. It has been suggested that MS can be triggered by certain viruses; however, human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection is associated with reduced incidence of MS. We present the case of a young patient diagnosed with active relapsing-remitting MS whose clinical course substantially improved following HIV infection and treatment. The patient achieved no evidence of disease activity status without any disease-modifying drugs. Both HIV-induced immunosuppression and antiretroviral therapy may have attenuated the clinical course in this patient.

Determinants of therapeutic lag in multiple sclerosis.

BACKGROUND: A delayed onset of treatment effect, termed therapeutic lag, may influence the assessment of treatment response in some patient subgroups. OBJECTIVES: The objective of this study is to explore the associations of patient and disease characteristics with therapeutic lag on relapses and disability accumulation. METHODS: Data from MSBase, a multinational multiple sclerosis (MS) registry, and OFSEP, the French MS registry, were used. Patients diagnosed with MS, minimum 1 year of exposure to MS treatment and 3 years of pre-treatment follow-up, were included in the analysis. Studied outcomes were incidence of relapses and disability accumulation. Therapeutic lag was calculated using an objective, validated method in subgroups stratified by patient and disease characteristics. Therapeutic lag under specific circumstances was then estimated in subgroups defined by combinations of clinical and demographic determinants. RESULTS: High baseline disability scores, annualised relapse rate (ARR) ⩾ 1 and male sex were associated with longer therapeutic lag on disability progression in sufficiently populated groups: females with expanded disability status scale (EDSS) < 6 and ARR < 1 had mean lag of 26.6 weeks (95% CI = 18.2-34.9), males with EDSS < 6 and ARR < 1 31.0 weeks (95% CI = 25.3-36.8), females with EDSS < 6 and ARR ⩾ 1 44.8 weeks (95% CI = 24.5-65.1), and females with EDSS ⩾ 6 and ARR < 1 54.3 weeks (95% CI = 47.2-61.5). CONCLUSIONS: Pre-treatment EDSS and ARR are the most important determinants of therapeutic lag.

Effectiveness and safety of PCSK9 inhibitors in real-world clinical practice. An observational multicentre study. The IRIS-PCSK9I study.

Background and aims: The benefits of the PCSK9 inhibitors, alirocumab and evolocumab, in lowering LDL-cholesterol and preventing major adverse cardiac events (MACE) have been demonstrated in pivotal clinical trials. However, few studies of routine clinical practice have been conducted to analyse and compare the efficacy and safety of the two drugs. Methods: Retrospective observational study of patients treated with a PCSK9 inhibitor in five hospitals in Andalusia (southern Spain). Baseline demographic and clinical data, LDL-cholesterol levels and the occurrence of MACEs during the follow-up period were recorded. Results: A total of 141 patients were included in the study: 90 were treated with alirocumab and 51 with evolocumab. The patients' mean age (IQR) was 58 (11) years and 58 (41%) were women. The most frequent concomitant medications were statins, 94 (66.7%), followed by antiplatelet therapy (66%) and ezetimibe (65.2%). The median (IQR) follow-up period was 18 (18) months, with 18 (24) for alirocumab and 11 (18) for evolocumab. At the six-month follow-up visit, LDL-cholesterol values had decreased to pre-treatment levels and remained significantly decreased (p < 0.05) over time, for both drugs, and a greater reduction was achieved in patients with established cardiovascular disease and concomitant treatment with statins. With respect to adverse effects, there were nine MACEs (6.4%), of which seven were with alirocumab (7.8%) and two with evolocumab (3.9%) (p NS). Other adverse effects (9.2%) included local erythema (3.5%), muscle cramps (2.1%), respiratory symptoms (2.1%) and asthaenia (1.4%). Conclusions: The efficacy and safety of alirocumab and evolocumab in routine clinical practice are consistent with the findings of the pivotal clinical trials.

Delay from treatment start to full effect of immunotherapies for multiple sclerosis.

In multiple sclerosis, treatment start or switch is prompted by evidence of disease activity. Whilst immunomodulatory therapies reduce disease activity, the time required to attain maximal effect is unclear. In this study we aimed to develop a method that allows identification of the time to manifest fully and clinically the effect of multiple sclerosis treatments ('therapeutic lag') on clinical disease activity represented by relapses and progression-of-disability events. Data from two multiple sclerosis registries, MSBase (multinational) and OFSEP (French), were used. Patients diagnosed with multiple sclerosis, minimum 1-year exposure to treatment, minimum 3-year pretreatment follow-up and yearly review were included in the analysis. For analysis of disability progression, all events in the subsequent 5-year period were included. Density curves, representing incidence of relapses and 6-month confirmed progression events, were separately constructed for each sufficiently represented therapy. Monte Carlo simulations were performed to identify the first local minimum of the first derivative after treatment start; this point represented the point of stabilization of treatment effect, after the maximum treatment effect was observed. The method was developed in a discovery cohort (MSBase), and externally validated in a separate, non-overlapping cohort (OFSEP). A merged MSBase-OFSEP cohort was used for all subsequent analyses. Annualized relapse rates were compared in the time before treatment start and after the stabilization of treatment effect following commencement of each therapy. We identified 11 180 eligible treatment epochs for analysis of relapses and 4088 treatment epochs for disability progression. External validation was performed in four therapies, with no significant difference in the bootstrapped mean differences in therapeutic lag duration between registries. The duration of therapeutic lag for relapses was calculated for 10 therapies and ranged between 12 and 30 weeks. The duration of therapeutic lag for disability progression was calculated for seven therapies and ranged between 30 and 70 weeks. Significant differences in the pre- versus post-treatment annualized relapse rate were present for all therapies apart from intramuscular interferon beta-1a. In conclusion we have developed, and externally validated, a method to objectively quantify the duration of therapeutic lag on relapses and disability progression in different therapies in patients more than 3 years from multiple sclerosis onset. Objectively defined periods of expected therapeutic lag allows insights into the evaluation of treatment response in randomized clinical trials and may guide clinical decision-making in patients who experience early on-treatment disease activity. This method will subsequently be applied in studies that evaluate the effect of patient and disease characteristics on therapeutic lag.

New Algorithms Improving PML Risk Stratification in MS Patients Treated With Natalizumab.

Overview: We assessed the role of age and disease activity as new factors contributing to establish the risk of progressive multifocal leucoencephalopathy in multiple sclerosis patients treated with natalizumab in 36 University Hospitals in Europe. We performed the study in 1,307 multiple sclerosis patients (70.8% anti-John Cunninghan virus positive antibodies) treated with natalizumab for a median time of 3.28 years. Epidemiological, clinical, and laboratory variables were collected. Lipid-specific IgM oligoclonal band status was available in 277 patients. Factors associated with progressive multifocal leucoencephalopathy onset were explored by uni- and multivariate logistic regression. Results: Thirty-five patients developed progressive multifocal leucoencephalopathy. The multivariate analysis identified anti-John Cunninghan virus antibody indices and relapse rate as the best predictors for the onset of this serious opportunistic infection in the whole cohort. They allowed to stratify progressive multifocal leucoencephalopathy risk before natalizumab initiation in individual patients [area under the curve (AUC) = 0.85]. The risk ranged from <1/3,300 in patients with anti-John Cunninghan virus antibody indices <0.9 and relapse rate >0.5, to 1/50 in the opposite case. In patients with lipid-specific IgM oligoclonal bands assessment, age at natalizumab onset, anti-John Cunninghan virus antibody indices, and lipid-specific IgM oligoclonal band status predicted progressive multifocal leucoencephalopathy risk (AUC = 0.92). The absence of lipid-specific IgM oligoclonal bands was the best individual predictor (OR = 40.94). The individual risk ranged from <1/10,000 in patients younger than 45 years at natalizumab initiation, who showed anti John Cunningham virus antibody indices <0.9 and lipid-specific IgM oligoclonal bands to 1/33 in the opposite case. Conclusions: In a perspective of personalized medicine, disease activity, anti-lipid specific IgM oligoclonal bands, anti Jonh Cunninghan virus antibody levels, and age can help tailor natalizumab therapy in multiple sclerosis patients, as predictors of progressive multifocal leucoencephalopathy.

Circulating microRNA after autologous bone marrow mononuclear cell (BM-MNC) injection in patients with ischemic stroke.

Previous studies have shown the potential of microRNAs (miRNA) in the pathological process of stroke and functional recovery. Bone marrow mononuclear cell (BM-MNC) transplantation improves recovery in experimental models of ischemic stroke that might be related with miRNA modifications. However, its effect on circulating miRNA has not been described in patients with stroke. We aimed to evaluate the circulating levels of miRNAs after autologous BM-MNC transplantation in patients with stroke. We investigate the pattern of miRNA-133b and miRNA-34a expression in patients with ischemic stroke included in a multicenter randomized controlled phase IIb trial (http://www.clinicaltrials.gov; unique identifier: NCT02178657). Patients were randomized to 2 different doses of autologous intra-arterial BM-MNC injection (2×106/kg or 5×106/kg) or control group within the first 7 days after stroke onset. We evaluate plasma concentration of miRNA-113b and miRNA-34a at inclusion and 4, 7, and 90 days after treatment. Thirteen cases (8 with 2×106/kg BM-MNC dose and 5 with 5×106/kg dose) and 11 controls (BM-MNC non-treated) were consecutively included. Mean age was 64.1±12.3 with a mean National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale score at inclusion of 14.5. Basal levels of miRNA were similar in both groups. miR-34a-5p and miR-133b showed different expression patterns. There was a significant dose-dependent increase of miRNA-34a levels 4 days after BM-MNC injection (fold change 3.7, p<0.001), whereas miRNA-133b showed a significant increase in the low-dose BM-MNC group at 90 days. Intra-arterial BM-MNC transplantation in patients with ischemic stroke seems to modulate early circulating miRNA-34a levels, which have been related to precursor cell migration in stroke and smaller infarct volumes.