Predicting the risk of diabetic retinopathy using explainable machine learning algorithms.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: Diabetic retinopathy (DR) is a global health concern among diabetic patients. The objective of this study was to propose an explainable machine learning (ML)-based system for predicting the risk of DR. MATERIALS AND METHODS: This study utilized publicly available cross-sectional data in a Chinese cohort of 6374 respondents. We employed boruta and least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) based feature selection methods to identify the common predictors of DR. Using the identified predictors, we trained and optimized four widly applicable models (artificial neural network, support vector machine, random forest, and extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) to predict patients with DR. Moreover, shapely additive explanation (SHAP) was adopted to show the contribution of each predictor of DR in the prediction. RESULTS: Combining Boruta and LASSO method revealed that community, TCTG, HDLC, BUN, FPG, HbAlc, weight, and duration were the most important predictors of DR. The XGBoost-based model outperformed the other models, with an accuracy of 90.01%, precision of 91.80%, recall of 97.91%, F1 score of 94.86%, and AUC of 0.850. Moreover, SHAP method showed that HbA1c, community, FPG, TCTG, duration, and UA1b were the influencing predictors of DR. CONCLUSION: The proposed integrating system will be helpful as a tool for selecting significant predictors, which can predict patients who are at high risk of DR at an early stage in China.

Predicting the risk of hypertension using machine learning algorithms: A cross sectional study in Ethiopia.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Hypertension (HTN), a major global health concern, is a leading cause of cardiovascular disease, premature death and disability, worldwide. It is important to develop an automated system to diagnose HTN at an early stage. Therefore, this study devised a machine learning (ML) system for predicting patients with the risk of developing HTN in Ethiopia. MATERIALS AND METHODS: The HTN data was taken from Ethiopia, which included 612 respondents with 27 factors. We employed Boruta-based feature selection method to identify the important risk factors of HTN. The four well-known models [logistics regression, artificial neural network, random forest, and extreme gradient boosting (XGB)] were developed to predict HTN patients on the training set using the selected risk factors. The performances of the models were evaluated by accuracy, precision, recall, F1-score, and area under the curve (AUC) on the testing set. Additionally, the SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) method is one of the explainable artificial intelligences (XAI) methods, was used to investigate the associated predictive risk factors of HTN. RESULTS: The overall prevalence of HTN patients is 21.2%. This study showed that XGB-based model was the most appropriate model for predicting patients with the risk of HTN and achieved the accuracy of 88.81%, precision of 89.62%, recall of 97.04%, F1-score of 93.18%, and AUC of 0. 894. The XBG with SHAP analysis reveal that age, weight, fat, income, body mass index, diabetes mulitas, salt, history of HTN, drinking, and smoking were the associated risk factors of developing HTN. CONCLUSIONS: The proposed framework provides an effective tool for accurately predicting individuals in Ethiopia who are at risk for developing HTN at an early stage and may help with early prevention and individualized treatment.

Identification of the risk factors of type 2 diabetes and its prediction using machine learning techniques.

This study identified the risk factors for type 2 diabetes (T2D) and proposed a machine learning (ML) technique for predicting T2D. The risk factors for T2D were identified by multiple logistic regression (MLR) using p-value (p<0.05). Then, five ML-based techniques, including logistic regression, naïve Bayes, J48, multilayer perceptron, and random forest (RF) were employed to predict T2D. This study utilized two publicly available datasets, derived from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, 2009-2010 and 2011-2012. About 4922 respondents with 387 T2D patients were included in 2009-2010 dataset, whereas 4936 respondents with 373 T2D patients were included in 2011-2012. This study identified six risk factors (age, education, marital status, SBP, smoking, and BMI) for 2009-2010 and nine risk factors (age, race, marital status, SBP, DBP, direct cholesterol, physical activity, smoking, and BMI) for 2011-2012. RF-based classifier obtained 95.9% accuracy, 95.7% sensitivity, 95.3% F-measure, and 0.946 area under the curve.

Socioeconomic inequality in the prevalence of low birth weight and its associated determinants in Bangladesh.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: Low birth weight (LBW) is a major risk factor of child mortality and morbidity during infancy (0-3 years) and early childhood (3-8 years) in low and lower-middle-income countries, including Bangladesh. LBW is a vital public health concern in Bangladesh. The objective of the research was to investigate the socioeconomic inequality in the prevalence of LBW among singleton births and identify the significantly associated determinants of singleton LBW in Bangladesh. MATERIALS AND METHODS: The data utilized in this research was derived from the latest nationally representative Bangladesh Demographic and Health Survey, 2017-18, and included a total of 2327 respondents. The concentration index (C-index) and concentration curve were used to investigate the socioeconomic inequality in LBW among the singleton newborn babies. Additionally, an adjusted binary logistic regression model was utilized for calculating adjusted odds ratio and p-value (<0.05) to identify the significant determinants of LBW. RESULTS: The overall prevalence of LBW among singleton births in Bangladesh was 14.27%. We observed that LBW rates were inequitably distributed across the socioeconomic groups (C-index: -0.096, 95% confidence interval: [-0.175, -0.016], P = 0.029), with a higher concentration of LBW infants among mothers living in the lowest wealth quintile (poorest). Regression analysis revealed that maternal age, region, maternal education level, wealth index, height, age at 1st birth, and the child's aliveness (alive or died) at the time of the survey were significantly associated determinants of LBW in Bangladesh. CONCLUSION: In this study, socioeconomic disparity in the prevalence of singleton LBW was evident in Bangladesh. Incidence of LBW might be reduced by improving the socioeconomic status of poor families, paying special attention to mothers who have no education and live in low-income households in the eastern divisions (e.g., Sylhet, Chittagong). Governments, agencies, and non-governmental organizations should address the multifaceted issues and implement preventive programs and policies in Bangladesh to reduce LBW.

Investigate the risk factors of stunting, wasting, and underweight among under-five Bangladeshi children and its prediction based on machine learning approach.

AIMS: Malnutrition is a major health issue among Bangladeshi under-five (U5) children. Children are malnourished if the calories and proteins they take through their diet are not sufficient for their growth and maintenance. The goal of the research was to use machine learning (ML) algorithms to detect the risk factors of malnutrition (stunted, wasted, and underweight) as well as their prediction. METHODS: This work utilized malnutrition data that was derived from Bangladesh Demographic and Health Survey which was conducted in 2014. The selected dataset consisted of 7079 children with 13 factors. The potential risks of malnutrition have been identified by logistic regression (LR). Moreover, 3 ML classifiers (support vector machine (SVM), random forest (RF), and LR) have been implemented for predicting malnutrition and the performance of these ML algorithms were assessed on the basis of accuracy. RESULTS: The average prevalence of stunted, wasted, and underweight was 35.4%, 15.4%, and 32.8%, respectively. It was noted that LR identified five risk factors for stunting and underweight, as well as four factors for wasting. Results illustrated that RF can be accurately classified as stunted, wasted, and underweight children and obtained the highest accuracy of 88.3% for stunted, 87.7% for wasted, and 85.7% for underweight. CONCLUSION: This research focused on the identification and prediction of major risk factors for stunting, wasting, and underweight using ML algorithms which will aid policymakers in reducing malnutrition among Bangladesh's U5 children.

Machine learning algorithm for characterizing risks of hypertension, at an early stage in Bangladesh.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Hypertension has become a major public health issue as the prevalence and risk of premature death and disability among adults due to hypertension has increased globally. The main objective is to characterize the risk factors of hypertension among adults in Bangladesh using machine learning (ML) algorithms. MATERIALS AND METHODS: The hypertension data was derived from Bangladesh demographic and health survey, 2017-18, which included 6965 people aged 35 and above. Two most promising risk factor identification methods, namely least absolute shrinkage operator (LASSO) and support vector machine recursive feature elimination (SVMRFE) are implemented to detect the critical risk factors of hypertension. Additionally, four well-known ML algorithms as artificial neural network, decision tree, random forest, and gradient boosting (GB) have been used to predict hypertension. Performance scores of these algorithms were evaluated by accuracy, precision, recall, F-measure, and area under the curve (AUC). RESULTS: The results clarify that age, BMI, wealth index, working status, and marital status for LASSO and age, BMI, marital status, diabetes and region for SVMRFE appear to be the top-most five significant risk factors for hypertension. Our findings reveal that the combination of SVMRFE-GB gives the maximum accuracy (66.98%), recall (97.92%), F-measure (78.99%), and AUC (0.669) compared to others. CONCLUSION: GB-based algorithm confirms the best performer for prediction of hypertension, at an early stage in Bangladesh. Therefore, this study highly suggests that the policymakers make proper judgments for controlling hypertension using SVMRFE-GB-based combination to save time and reduce cost for Bangladeshi adults.

Determinants of depressive symptoms among older people in Bangladesh.

BACKGROUND: Depressive symptoms are common among older people which are associated with disability, morbidity and mortality. The aim of this study was to determine the associated risk factors for depressive symptoms among older people in Bangladesh. METHODS: A cross-sectional survey was conducted among 400 people aged ≥65 years from the Meherpur district in Bangladesh. Depressive symptoms were measured by the 15-item Geriatric Depression Scale and categorized into: no depressive symptoms, mild, moderate and severe depressive symptoms. Information was also collected on socio-economic and demographic characteristics, health problems, feeling of loneliness, history of falls and concern about falling. Chi-square test of association and multinomial logistic regression was performed to reveal the determinants of depressive symptoms. RESULTS: Just over half of the sample were female, aged 70+ years, and lived in rural areas. The prevalence of depressive symptoms was 55.5%, and 23.0% mild, 19.0% moderate, and 13.5% having severe levels of depressive symptoms. Older age, sex, residence, marital status, presence of co-morbidities, visual impairment, previous falls, loneliness, and fear of falling were the significant determinants for developing depressive symptoms. LIMITATIONS: A convenience sampling method was used for data collection among older people from selected communities in a district of Bangladesh. The results do not represent the entire population of Bangladesh. Besides, it was a cross-sectional study, and causality cannot be determined. CONCLUSION: Depressive symptoms among older people in Bangladesh is prevalent, and needs to be addressed. Public health programs and strategies are needed to reduce depressive symptoms among older adults in Bangladesh.

Determinants of tobacco cultivation in Bangladesh.

BACKGROUND: Tobacco production continues to increase in low-income and middle-income countries including in Bangladesh. It has spreads to different parts of Bangladesh and is now threatening food cultivation, the environment and health. The aim of this study is to determine the factors those are influenced farmers' decisions to grow tobacco. METHODS: We surveyed 371 tobacco farmers using a simple random sampling in the Meherpur district of Bangladesh. Binary logistic regression was used to examine the variables affecting farmers' decision to cultivate tobacco. RESULTS: Approximately 87.0% of the respondents were contract farmers with different tobacco companies. Almost 83.3% of the farmers had intentions to continue tobacco farming. Binary logistic regression results suggest that company's incentives to farmers, farmers' profitability, a guaranteed market for the tobacco crop and economic viability were the variables most affecting the decision to cultivate tobacco. CONCLUSIONS: Governments seeking to shift farmers away from tobacco will need to consider how to address the dynamics revealed in this research.