Predictive Model for Neoplastic Potential of Gallbladder Polyp.

GOAL: To provide the statistical predictive model for neoplastic potential of gallbladder polyp (GBP). BACKGROUND: Many studies have attempted to define the risk factors for neoplastic potential of GBP. It remains difficult to precisely adapt the reported risk factors for the decision of surgery. Estimating the probability for neoplastic potential of GBP using a combination of several risk factors before surgical resection would be useful in patient consultation. STUDY: We collected data of patients confirmed as GBP through cholecystectomy at Samsung Medical Center between January 1997 and March 2015. Those with a definite evidence for malignancy, such as adjacent organ invasion, metastasis on preoperative imaging studies, polyp >15 mm, and absence of proper preoperative ultrasonographic imaging were excluded. A total of 1976 patients were enrolled. To make and validate the predictive model, we divided the cohort into the modeling group (n=979) and validation group (n=997). Clinical information, ultrasonographic findings, and blood tests were retrospectively analyzed. RESULTS: Clinical factors of older age, single lesion, sessile shape, and polyp size showed statistical significance for neoplastic potential of GBP in the modeling group. A predictive model for neoplastic potential of GBP was constructed utilizing the statistical outcome of the modeling group. Statistical validation was performed with the validation group to determine the optimal clinical sensitivity and specificity of the predictive model. Optimal cut-off value for neoplastic probability was 7.4%. CONCLUSIONS: The predictive model for neoplastic potential of GBP may support clinical decisions before cholecystectomy.

Feasibility of α-fetoprotein as a diagnostic tool for hepatocellular carcinoma in Korea.

BACKGROUND/AIMS: The aim of this study was to evaluate the feasibility of α-fetoprotein (AFP) as a diagnostic tool for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in Korean patients. METHODS: We retrospectively reviewed the medical records of HCC and cirrhosis patients at three hospitals. For each HCC patient, a cirrhosis patient matched for age, sex, etiology, and Child-Pugh classification was selected by simple random sampling. The performance of AFP in the diagnosis of HCC was determined using receiver operating characteristic curve analysis. RESULTS: A total of 732 patients with HCC or cirrhosis were selected for each case and the control groups. The mean age was 54 years, and 72.4% of patients were male. The mean serum AFP levels in the HCC group and cirrhosis group were 3,315.6 and 117.2 ng/mL, respectively (p < 0.001). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for all HCC patients was 0.757. The sensitivity, specificity, and positive predictive value of AFP was 50.55%, 87.70%, and 80.43%, respectively, at a cut-off of 20 ng/mL; 37.70%, 95.90%, and 90.20%, respectively, at a cut-off of 100 ng/mL, and 30.05%, 97.27%, and 91.67%, respectively, at a cut-off of 200 ng/mL. A cut-off of 100 ng/mL was more sensitive than one of 200 ng/mL with equivalent specificity and positive predictive value. CONCLUSIONS: The cut-off AFP value for early-stage HCC was 17.4 ng/mL. Our study cautiously suggests that AFP has a role in the diagnosis of HCC, and that the appropriate value of AFP for the diagnosis of HCC may be 100 ng/mL rather than 200 ng/mL.

Long-term outcomes of two rescue therapies in lamivudine-refractory patients with chronic hepatitis B: combined lamivudine and adefovir, and 1-mg entecavir.

BACKGROUND/AIMS: Adefovir (ADV) and lamivudine (LAM) combination therapy (ADV+LAM) has been a useful option for patients with LAM-resistant (LAM-r) chronic hepatitis B (CHB). However, the long-term outcomes of LAM+ADV and 1-mg entecavir (ETV) rescue therapies have still been limited. The aim of this study was to determine the long-term outcomes of these two rescue therapies. METHODS: Sixty patients with LAM-r CHB underwent rescue therapy with LAM+ADV (n=36) or 1-mg ETV (n=24). We determined the duration of rescue therapy, timing and type of mutation, undetectable serum hepatitis B virus (HBV) DNA by PCR (lower limitation of detection, < 140 copies/mL), biochemical response (alanine aminotransferase < 40 IU/mL), and the incidence of hepatitis B virus e antigen (HBeAg) seroconversion and virologic breakthrough. RESULTS: Baseline characteristics did not differ between the two therapy groups. The duration of rescue therapy was 56 months (range, 14-100 months) in the ADV+LAM group and 42 months (range, 12-73 months) in the ETV group (P=0.036). The cumulative rates of HBV DNA undetectability and HBeAg seroconversion up to 6 years were 88.6% and 43.0%, respectively, in the ADV+LAM group, and 45.8% and 31.8% in the ETV group. The rate of virologic breakthrough and resistance was 14.4% in the ADV+LAM group and 71.9% in the ETV group (P=0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Combination of LAM and ADV therapy for up to 6 years achieved modest rates of virological suppression and resistance. ETV is not an optimal therapy because the risk of viral breakthrough to ETV increases over time.

[Clinical impact of dual antiplatelet therapy on peptic ulcer disease].

BACKGROUND/AIMS: Increased incidence of coronary artery disease has led to the increased use of dual antiplatelet therapy composed of aspirin and clopidogrel. We investigated the incidence of gastrointestinal complications in patients who received single or dual antiplatelet therapy and analyzed their clinical characteristics in order to predict the prognostic factors. METHODS: Between January 2009 and December 2011, we retrospectively reviewed the medical records of patients who underwent coronary angiography at Chung-Ang University Hospital (Seoul, Korea). One hundred and ninety-four patients were classified into two groups: aspirin alone group and dual antiplatelet group. Clinical characteristics, past medical history, and presence of peptic ulcer were analyzed. RESULTS: During the follow-up period, 11 patients had duodenal ulcer; the event rate was 2.02% in the aspirin alone group and 9.47% in the dual antiplatelet group (hazard ratio [HR] 5.24, 95% CI 1.03-26.55, p<0.05). There was no significant difference in the rate of significant upper gastrointestinal bleeding: 0% vs. 4.2% (p=0.78). In patients who received proton pump inhibitor (PPI), 24 patients had gastric ulcer; the event rate was significantly different between the two groups: 4.87% vs. 22.98% (HR 3.40, 95% CI 1.02-11.27, p<0.05). CONCLUSIONS: Dual antiplatelet groups had a higher incidence of duodenal ulcers without significant bleeding compared with the aspirin alone group. In patients who received PPI, the dual antiplatelet therapy group had a higher incidence of gastric ulcers without significant bleeding compared with the aspirin alone group. Therefore, physicians must pay attention to high risk groups who receive dual antiplatelet therapy and aggressive diagnostic endoscopy should also be considered.